A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXHigh wave day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) was tested (failed). Back below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows but above the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1117.51). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (3 more days). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Still below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 88.23).
VIXSpinning top day. Back below weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint back above 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).
GOLDBullish day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).
EURUSDHanging man day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (passed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2244).
JNKBullish long day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed). Back above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish long day. Bullish move still looks weak. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).
WTIBullish long day. Back above the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(144). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the weekly 3LB mid at 77.58 (passed). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.94).
BPBearish short day. I thought it was hurricane season {snark}. Still below the 0.0% retrace (guess that's going to get changed). Still below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.68).
29 comments:
thanks amen...
i was getting worried about you... ;-)
Thanks Ra!
Crude down 1.2% YTD
USO down 9.22% YTD
hurricane gone?
Try and spell better.
Tropical storm is still forming I think CV.
Ra the weekly candle on crude ... Hanging man / long legged doji? What is your take
@Nic
Happy G-20! Say hi to all our good friends (who are there to conjure up great things for us all)...
What do they feed those guys up there in Canada?
Moose burgers or something?
Deep fried seal and Polar Bear stew with a side of frozen tondra salad.
I like the "hanging man" on the EUR-USD...
More importantly, the "position" of it...
13 days away from the bottom was yesterdays spinning top... Ahead of a hanging man (in front of a G-20 meeting basically says to me)... Let's get this thing to the weekend then all bets are off...
On the FXE chart there's a clear chart gap on the DAILY... Which is also a DOUBLE gap if you back it up to include six abandoned baby candles (which existed between the most recent lows - and the day before Goldman Sachs LOWERED its price target - lol)...
CV still hasn't tossed out his FLASH CRASH idea...
@Canadian Mountie...
Sounds yummy eh...
Beaver tails are yummy
Homer Simpson says...
"mmmmm beaver"...
Wasn't today DGDF day? S&P, oil. gold and comdols up, U$D down? Just ahead of G-20.
Beaver tails are donuts(deep fried pastry) sold in Ottawa.
So, nic you live around my cousin, somewhere close to U of T.
Nic
I see a hanging man on the weekly WTI.
...ummm why are you worried about all of the cops? :-)
@Amen
The WEEKLY $SPX candle was ENGULFING...
@Amen
Which doesn't necessarily say anything, but the position is interesting...
It's sort of in the same WAVE 1-2, 1-2 position (as back in May 2008), and closing nearer the bottom than the top...
Ya hosers better be keeping your hands off the beavers, ehe.
@Amen
That week in May 2008 was also the week the 89 week MA (what I call the "Louise Yamada" line) peaked...
That MA has trended down since then until just this week where it just started to curve up (near 992)...
That 89MA needs to be revisited...
It hasn't been seen since karens top (last November)...
Amen-Ra
I am allergic to hot summer traffic jams.
Love your charts, Ra.
Just went through all of them.
SPX longs are going to be annhilated early next week. That chart looks like dog shit.
Bucky looks flat out amazing... how could a trader NOT love the look of that pullback. I have a feeling if you went long DXY today, you're going to be a very happy individual next week.
Gold- toughie... would not short it.
Crude- also toughie... would not TRADE it.
VIX looks set for a rampage... fractal spike higher anyone? (That makes the last spike look juvenile...)
Overall, everything is looking very much like a continuation of the downtrend for risk assets next week.
Only thing to fuck that up is one big colossal "lets dick with the markets some more" event coming out of the G-20... but, lets think for a second...
When was the last time anything monumental came out of a G20 meeting??? Always seems anticlimactic.
CV
The weekly SPX is engulfing. It's not necessarily a reversal signal unless it's bumping up against resistance. Which btw could be 1078.87 (the 1.618 off the low).
I-Man
Since the lows on the SPX were lower than last week (eliminating the chance for a bullish harami star) I think weakens the bulls position.
CV
The hanging man is at resistance on the EURUSD. It's going DOWN.
When I look through all the weekly charts I am getting mixed messages ... more study required this weekend
Found out why the RUT was up today:
Rebalancing.
A little confused by it all but waiting to see how it unfolds. I think Monday and in to Tuesday are up - and probably big. Maybe this time I'll get the short correct in the low 1100's. Also, do not forget about the small gap CV mentioned to be filled at 1090/1 and after the trap door before the close we have a gap at 1080/1.
There are other gaps higher as well. I think these gaps get filled AFTER a trip to 850-900 range. Has anyone noticed the 1200-1197 gap back on May 3/4?
The slope of hope is going to be extremely confusing and expensive for many. Most people cannot buy low or sell high. It takes resolve to go against the trend.
@I-man re G-20.
Over-paid, overrated, clowns!
It's costing the Canadian tax payer $ 1 Billion to provide security.
Why cann't they do video-conferences!
All that carbon print they leave.
Canada isn't Seattle. Check out this G8/G20 protesters sign: http://twitpic.com/1zy9jk/full
A billion dollars because of these scary people.
@Nic
They ought to lock that guy with a sign right up!...
LOL
Nic-
you are funny(-:!!! I meant to comment the other day as well about your link on the British dude doing the bit about Americanisms- you know- "could care less", "holding down the fort"-
pretty funny- but I must admit when I hear a Brit say vitamins, garage and schedule it always gets a giggle out of me(-:!!!
Post a Comment