Morning Audibles 6.22.10 - Parsing the news 102

I swear... I'm going to try to NOT make this a daily habit, but I can't help lately but pour through news headlines and regurgitate them to you all in a "Cliff's Notes" version...
Without further ado... (I'm trying to make "Cliff" proud)...


Excerpt:
“The announcement out of China elicited an emotional response from the market,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Investments in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees $63 billion. A closer look at the announcement suggests China’s approach is very gradual and it is continuing at its own pace. It’s a less dramatic move when looked at more closely.”

Translation: "Since none of us know what the fuck we're doing, we prematurely interpreted Sunday's announcement as being potentially POSITIVE for equities... The markets said "NOT SO FAST", so now we're in the RETROFIT phase"...



Excerpts:
"Whereas Obama called on the G-20 to reaffirm its “unity of purpose to provide the policy support necessary to keep economic growth strong,” Merkel said that “it’s not about growth at any price, it’s about sustainable” growth."

Translation: "Since none of us know what the fuck we're doing, ANY announcement that any of us make, WE HOPE, will potentially be POSITIVE for equities... When the markets say "NOT SO FAST", we'll steal money from taxpayers to mitigate the damage...

"Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the U.S. isn’t worried about “loose monetary policy” and said it would be a risk for the euro region to allow Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank, to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the European Central Bank, German newspaper Handelsblatt reported"

Translation: "I never knew what the fuck I was EVER doing... That's why I'm a proud NOBEL recipient"...

Obama’s Budget Director Orszag Plans to Leave Post 

Excerpt:
"A former director of the Congressional Budget Office, Orszag has worked to advance two of Obama’s top legislative priorities: the $862 billion economic stimulus measure passed in February 2009 and the $940 billion health-care overhaul passed in March. As director of the budget office, he prepared both of Obama’s first two spending blueprints."

Translation: "Fool me once, shame on you... Fool me TWICE... We won't get fooled again..." (But you know damn well we will)...

"Upon leaving the administration, Orszag will likely join a think tank, said one of the administration officials."

Translation: A "THINK TANK"... Wasn't CHAUNCEY GARDENER held in high esteem by those organizations?



China’s Restrictions on Rare Earths Said to Be Targeted by U.S.

"China controls 97 percent of production of the materials, known as rare earth elements, giving it “market power” over the U.S."

Translation: What ever happened to SHOVEL READY jobs in America? We have ABUNDANT natural resources... Petroleum, Nat Gas, Shale, Aquifers, probably these RARE EARTHS too... Is there ANYBODY in this country who wants to stick a shovel in the ground?... No... because we're too busy fighting wars in the Middle East, cleaning up spills in the deep water GOM... And flapping our yaps about GLOBAL WARMING to actually go to Home Depot, buy a shovel, and stomp it into the ground with a foot...

Meanwhile... This is CV's own NEWS (parse away suckas!)... It's the VIX (annotated) over the past 3 years... Cliff would tell you that there's this RECTANGULAR BOX in the 22-25 area... Then, there are a bunch of "notes" above and below that box...

Make of those what you wish...

Or... You might 'noodle about' upon the sustainability of THIS...

Or... You could just slide in with the GIB...


332 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 332 of 332   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

top step has pretty much laid it out well again for the rest of the day, thanks Nic for introducing me to those videos, good stuff.

McFearless said...

Karen, that chart only goes back to 2000 though, when you look for correlations in gold imo you gotta go way back....

CV said...

DL... You still thinking VIX 18?

AmenRa said...

Circuit breakers are OFF. Just sayin'...

AmenRa said...

Ben

Need to go back to 1971 at a minimum.

karen said...

we went right thru my top!

CV said...

@Amen

1971...

I can handle that...

3 Dog Night, GFR, Rare Earth

CV said...

Can't get enough of your top karen...

McFearless said...

Ra,

when you look before that (1971), how do you square the govt "fixing prices"

prechter has done countless long term papers on gold, they are all very compelling but sometimes I think he is misleading in recording what happened....that said, the govt can't really fix the price unless the market wants it fixed, we are seeing living proof of that right now, according to the govt gold is 42.22/ounce....the market is calling b.s. on that one.

arbitrage789 said...

CV @ 2:50

I remain bullish on the stock market over the next 3-4 weeks.

After that, not so much.

CV said...

Serious FEAR arises when one contemplates leftback's bottom though...

McFearless said...

this is more third wave like....or C wave....damn andy for not doing an update this week, lol.

McFearless said...

DL,

You think we could see 800's then this year or not that low?

CV said...

@DL

Actually, I kind of agree with you there...

I think we're in a CLOSE GAP mission (to 1090 - as I was saying last week)... Maybe as low as 1078...

I'd be fearful of a rally after that...

I still don't like VIX 18 though...

Nic said...

I agree with you DL, we rally into earnings.
This week is a back and fill week after the big rally

Leftback said...

Leftback saunters in...
as he tends to do when he hears mention of Karen's Top....

arbitrage789 said...

McF @ 2:55

I have no difficulty believing that we could get back to 850 or so within the next 5 years.

But not this year. And probably not next year either (Yes, I know that CV vehemently disagrees).

arbitrage789 said...

LB @ 2:57

...or the post @ 2:54

McFearless said...

fair enough DL, was just curious.

I could see a rally for another few weeks to 1150's, fits some good counts, I hope it does, great short entry there.

Leftback said...

Speak of the devil (666) ... the LB bottom !

Nic, commodity complex down tomorrow?

CV said...

@McF

"according to the govt gold is 42.22/ounce....the market is calling b.s. on that one."

In the end, the government CAN call BS on the market...

How?

Steal it from the citizens (by confiscating it) and issue a new currency in its stead...

As you well know, this has been done before... It will happen again...

It will be worth WHAT THEY TELL YOU it's worth...

Leftback said...

At 68 bps they are loving them some 2s today...

CV said...

@McF

You're not under the false impression that we live in a DEMOCRACY are you???

There is only ONE political system...

KLEPTOCRACY

Leftback said...

LB experienced indoor rain last night at 1am, has spent the day mopping up after some tool in his building flooded several apartments....

But I see I haven't missed much, after all!

CV said...

@lb

Whose "they"?

Bennie & his printing press & PD's?

McFearless said...

C,

We'll see about that...there was a government overseas a few hundred years ago that thought they'd get away with acting in the same manner, then a bunch of people jumped in boats and left and later decided they would fight with them for something else, something that social mood was demanding.

I-Man said...

LB @ 3:05

Probably some dumbass trying to farm tillapia in his apartment...

McFearless said...

And C, just think for a minute, if it were this easy:

"It will be worth WHAT THEY TELL YOU it's worth..."

then why don't they just tell us what real estate is worth....among other things?

CV said...

@I-Man

LOL :-)

I-Man said...

Made myself laugh with that one...

:)

I-Man said...

Side note:

Anyone ever heard the song "Hollywood Freaks" by Beck, off the Midnite Vulures album?

Hilarious! (With a dope ass beat to match...)

Ben Bernanke said...

Just wanted you guys to know,

I'm going to leave rates unchanged tomorrow.



Please don't tell anyone.

Leftback said...

I-Man: Greece have parked the bus.

France achieved the impossible and made England not the saddest disappointment of the tournament. A popular win for South Africa.

CV said...

@McF (3:08)

From time to time they do that too...

It's called EXPROPRIATION...

Look... I'm in agreement with you as well that if things get so bad people eventually revolt...

But Americans won't take that step until the majority of them become completely hopeless...

karen said...

But BB, i thot you were all about transparency !

I-Man said...

LB,

Been so consumed with my ES, havent seen a game since Cameroon/Dmark

CV said...

@karen

If you start mixing there terms "transparency" and "karens top"... LB is going to get all crazy and maybe end up doing a FAT FINGER trade or something...

McFearless said...

I,

yes, I know that song...random.

C,

"But Americans won't take that step until the majority of them become completely hopeless"

We are close man...1 in 8 on food stamps and growing, lack of jobs, less and less can afford higher education....and not to mention, a perception that I think many share that everything is just so complex how could they possible do anything, as evidenced right here on this blog.

Nic said...

LB
I think we hit 1092 area on the S+P cash and bounce up to drop again personally. I still think a down week so I am not rushing to buy.

Nic said...

Hourly S&P is a neat head and shoulders, gives a target of 1081 which is a good level for the week

Leftback said...

No idea about equities this week, but wondered if it's time Bucky had another run up and saw off the latest faux rally in Crude - it's also time that Goldfinger took another tumble with VIX low and inflation dead.

Turn that thing off, Goldfinger..!

Nic said...

Bucky looks set to have a run up tomorrow I agree

72bat said...

cv -
curbstone convo last friday after work, it comes up a local is building a commercial aquaponics operation. further convo, they're also starting up a water buffalo dairy (soon - fresh, local mozzarella di bufalo - yum) with 4 preggers cows and 8 more cows on the way "with a quart of Italian semen on order." at which point, dave chappelle dead pans "been thinking of sellin' semen on e-bay myself."

McFearless said...

if the dollar runs here it needs to be an extended move imo (extended fifth wave), otherwise it's a fake out and more correction will follow.

CV said...

@McF

"We are close man...1 in 8 on food stamps and growing"...

I'll turn that right around and use the same to express why we ARE NOT that close yet...

YET...

When it gets to 5 in 8 on food stamps... And then the food stamps (or what you can buy with it) are taken away...

THAT's when you'll have a problem...

Right now, 1 in 8 are on food stamps so they can save the $200 a month to pay for their text messaging services...

CV said...

@72bat

Sweet!

Nothing like Fresh Bufala Mozzarella!

CV said...

Especially this time of year (when the tomatoes are ripening on the vine and the basil is lush...

McFearless said...

lol C, ok, but really, who in the hell is paying 2 bills to text? you must be thinking of the people saving up for the iPad....or the new Jordans.

72bat said...

insalata caprese, si

Nic said...

Thanks McF

I-Man said...

Yes Ben, random...

The setting on my ipod.

But a sick tune, no?

Leftback said...

Insalata Caprese...

Fresh sliced tomatoes - still warm from the August garden, fresh bufala mozzarella, fresh basil. Drizzle with Extra Virgin. Wash down with Prosecco.

LB's Last Meal, if he had the choice.

CV said...

@McF

Any iPhone owner here on this blog would tell you that it'll cost you at least $100 to get a full service iPhone...

The extra hundo you just blow "in da club"...

McFearless said...

alright, I'm not going to disagree with any other points anyone makes today....where do we close, I don't care...I agree!

AmenRa said...

Clearing throat..."K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!! K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!"

I-Man said...

1090 should pull out some bids...

I should probably let everyone know that I'm referring to the ES, not the SPX cash, when I talk s&p from now on.

I still dont have a feel for what the cash/ES relationship is, so forgive me if I'm confusing anyone.

McFearless said...

yeah I'm not up on the iPhone fees, I've got a shitty old Razr that I paid nothing for. Is it really that much every month?

karen said...

i wasn't even paying attention to cre today.. drv up 9.7%

McFearless said...

"But a sick tune, no?"

Oh sure, he's underappreciated, super creative, lots of hidden gems on his albums imo.

I've been listening to some Dylan the last few days.

72bat said...

don't forget just a few drops of balsamico on top

Leftback said...

1090 and Lloyd will prime the pump, you know all the boys want to see the KT again before they go home.

AmenRa said...

BenLet's see (using yesterdays close):

.1459= 1096.96 (check)
.236= 1086.93 (nervousness)
.382= 1070.68 (unadulterated fear)

I-Man said...

Short covering orgy spliced with algo mo-mo into the close...

CV said...

OK... CV wants to do a quick poll here...

How many think the SPX will hold somewhere around here (I'm saying, say 1078-1090 area)...

Then rally (perhaps even as high as 1150-1170)...

Votes typed as follows...

"W2TI" = Wave 2 top in (that was 1130)
"BTGH" = We bounce here and go higher
"HTF" = Hold then flatline

CV said...

CV says BTGH

AmenRa said...

I-Man


The ES/SPX relationship is called fair value. I don't remember the formula but it involves interest rates and contract expiration.

McFearless said...

yeah, I don't know if we can get to the UF fibo, .....I'm sort of with I-man, thinking some shorts came in yesterday when we did, that was a pretty widely identified level and pretty big reward at this point.

so, lets see if people start to cover....

AmenRa said...

CV

BFO

72bat said...

rooting for "BTGH" but not very confident.
have conditional orders in at 1142

CV said...

@Amen

BFO???

karen said...

Yes, my AT&T bill runs $447/mo.. for 3 iphones and 1 blackberry. Then i have to pay cable for my internet..

Where do i get those food stamps? I guess it's no red letter, now.. just as giving your home back to the bank or declaring bankruptcy carry no negative stigma.. Great country, huh?

I-Man said...

Pretty much in the W2TI camp...

Nic said...

My vote is 1080 before we rally

BinT said...

stocks down 180 from the high...don't hardly seem like a bullish trend...this late day weakness...beware the Ides of Hussman.

Nic said...

sorry, screwed up easy poll question CV

BTGH

AmenRa said...

Bottom Falls Out

CV said...

@karen

At least there are LEGAL remedies for all those situations you described...

Which is more than anyone could say for many of the things bankers, politicians, and officials do...

karen said...

the 20 ema on the $spx is my top. we are below that.. a turn at 1090 is rather critical.. a slice thru takes us back to 1040-1050 tout de suite.

Leftback said...

Commodity clavadista tomorrow, ES flat (US and England games on), and then a soggy rally on a half decent claims numbers Thursday before a big snoozer "Hamptons Jitney" Friday?

BinT said...

Karen,

If you went up to the AT&T office to pay the bill in person, and went in your new bikini....I think the dude behind the counter would see fit to reduce the charges...


JMO

karen said...

sorry.. just saw the poll above.. W2TI for me. I thot yesterday might have changed the game but it was just a trap.

McFearless said...

I and Nic,

I can't find it right now but EWI published something not long ago showing pro traders how to claim more of their losses on their income taxes....if I can dig it up I'll link it here but you two may want to look into that....also, all this talk about phones, you both may want to set up a corp, run your cell phones, etc through it,....easy to set it all up, probably cost you a few hundred bucks to do it.

disclosure: I'm not a tax advisor, hire a CPA.

Leftback said...

Charges? What charges?

The French manager wouldn't shake hands... what babies... !!!

McFearless said...

I'll stick with BTGH to 1150 for the top of B or 2....slight under or overshot.

CV said...

@BinT

There are no "dudes behind counters" at any workplace these days...

But your point is still taken...

karen would have to "i-snap" an "i-foto" of her "i-bikini" and then "i-mail" it in while she uses the "i-pay" function...

"I-Bama" for President in 2012!

CV said...

@McF

"I can't find it right now but EWI published something not long ago showing pro traders how to claim more of their losses on their income taxes"

"Losses?... What losses, I never make a losing trade..."
Signed Harry Wanger

karen said...

disclosure.. i only know ocean waves.. 1130 was the top BB and slightly shy of the 100 dma (1133).. so if 1090 breaks we should keep dropping.. $SPX is in a downtrend afterall.. i thot the trend was our friend : )

I-Man said...

Hmmm...

I'm inclined to think gap higher tomorrow...

Not sure what to make of the ES closing right on 1090.

CV said...

@karen

I'll go along with your notion (and Amen Ra's)... if we get a "confirmation" of the MONTHLY 3lb reversal...

Coming next week...

CV said...

@I-Man

You could make a "hat", or a "brooch", or a "teradactyl"

Nic said...

Katherine's pager must be broken

CV said...

@Amen

It's a long month... Right? :-)

McFearless said...

C,

losses happen when the street makes you take risk, so in case that happens to I or Nic in a moment of weakness...

Manny, don't take that too serious, I'm just playin.

Karen,

good point, trend is down...I don't know why I keep thinking we will 1150 seeing as how I'm Captain P3 and all....

I-Man said...

Ben if you could dig that up it would be cool, email it if you can, I might be out in the garden rest of the day.

McFearless said...

I'll keep looking for it, there was a link for a site on how to do it buried in one of the letters, almost certain it was from this year, I'll send it over when I find it, you've got six months before you need to worry about it.

Nic said...

McFearless, I would very much appreciate that.

I-Man said...

Although, in the interest of full disclosure, I-Man had enough losses in 2008-09 to cover me a few years...

CV said...

@McF @karen

"trend is down"

From a 3lb perspective, that statement is up in the air...

as of today:

DAILY = UP
WEEKLY = DOWN
MONTHLY = REVERSED (not confirmed)

keep that in mind

Nic said...

I have had a couple of losing months, not this year (yet) but they happen. Sometimes you just get out of synch with the market.

CV said...

but I think the daily reversed back down after the close...

CV said...

@Nic

Sometimes you're a cats tail in a room full of rocking chairs...

I-Man said...

I've already seen a huge difference in the amount of risk mgmt that a pro has to do...

It makes a huge difference over time.

I got myself all those losses doing extremely dumb shit I never should have been doing, but thats the danger in being "market taught".

karen said...

back later!

I-Man said...

For example, a 1.5% loss on a trade would be completely unacceptable at my new firm.

For I-Man back in the day, I didnt even have my stops at 1.5%.

Makes a huge difference, in both trading strategy and trading mentality.

Leftback said...

Today was a yen rally.

LB will take a bet on Bucky tomorrow, as an "inventory build" (Blankfein's basement full again) suggests "slight slowing" of "vigorous US recovery", while "fear recedes" as gold sells off due to "reduced Indian wedding demand", and traders buy Treasuries "anticipating Fed on hold for prolonged period".

McFearless said...

From Mish:

"Yet, equities are priced not only for reflation, but for a strong reflation at that. Either stocks or the yield curve is wrong. I suggest you pay attention to the yield curve."


Place yuur bets!

McFearless said...

oh, and yeah, yuan anyone?

I-Man said...

Whats "yuan"?

I-Man said...

Like, yuan go smoke a spliff?

I-Man said...

Didnt even realize the time...

:))

AmenRa said...

CV

The daily reversal is 1091.60. Didn't get there today.

Nic said...

"Sometimes you're a cats tail in a room full of rocking chairs..."
From the guy who calls his blog "survivor capital" and is about to stockpile for the end of the world.

McFearless said...

Ra,

a question on 3lb.

So I think we would all agree that a monthly candle is more important than a weekly, a weekly more important than a daily, etc. for the bigger picture....lets say that we get into a situation like we did in 31 and 32 where there are huge % rallies that last a month or two but the larger overall trend remains down.

Could the 3lb give false signals in something like that, showing a monthly reversal perhaps? Also, do you ever look at something like quarterly 3lb, or would you be inclined to use it in an situation like that?

Nic said...

You know I love ya, right :)

McFearless said...

transports really got rocked today...RR is going to be even more bearish....

McFearless said...

For the fellow fiboists from "maxcherry" at Dan's:

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/6900/tran1987to2010.png

I-Man said...

Nice work, whoever put together that chart. Thx for sharing.

CV said...

@Nic

I'm the ROCKING CHAIR :-)

Leftback said...

Greece and France got what they deserved at the World Cup... nothing.
We may have a few more high profile exits before the week is up.

Argentina, it must be said, are playing A Beautiful Game.

CV said...

@McF

If the Dow goes to 400...

We'll probably need DECADE long 3lb's

CV said...

@McF

...and we'd GET THEM too...

McFearless said...

maxcherry always has solid charts, pretty good counter as well....great fibo work, there is one other guy there that posts his own hand drawn charts (including the price action he draws by hand) that does some amazing fibo work...he just rarely posts.

RP mentioned this guy, so I'm checking it out, it's fractal analysis:

www.elliottfractals.com

Just an observation: the fall back argument for risk on is now universal....it goes like this:

"if the fed really cranks up the printing press next time"

not going to bother stating my view on how completely ignorant this is, for now it can stand on its own and we can come back to it later.

CV said...

@McF

Would that be like "double secret" cranking of the printing press?

Nic said...

Did anyone put any money on Korea? wowzinski

McFearless said...

yeah, I guess something like that....the matrix is probably somehow involved as well.

Nic said...

Great chart, thank you McF

McFearless said...

um, this is perhaps required reading?

and a further push to people just losing it?....Im' thinking yes:

http://www.numbersusa.com/content/news/june-21-2010/senators-challenge-pres-obama-rumors-executive-order-amnesty.html

Leftback said...

South Korea are quite useful. North Korea, less so. But in a world of ALGERIA and SLOVENIA, all opposition seems intimidating...

The concept that BB is standing by the printing press is still really the only thing that separates the market from ... my bottom*.

* SPX = 666, the Leftback Lows.

Leftback said...

I recommend that we begin a Death Cross Watch, I hereby nominate Ra to keep an eye on the intersection of 50 DMA and 200 DMA, the Death Cross - it is an event that never fails to predict Maximum Market Pukage.

The P3 will be just gettin' started when the Death Cross arrives, so pull up a chair right then and whatever you do, don't get long...

AmenRa said...

Ben

The monthly has been a very good indicator. Usually by the time you have a monthly trend (3 higher closes) the reversal is 20% or more down. Same for an uptrend.

Also if the rallies don't take out the previous high then the reversal is still good. The thing is that a monthly reversal can go unconfirmed for many months (which can drive one crazy).

AmenRa said...

LB

Quick look at SPX points to early July for the Death Cross.

CV said...

About July 5th...

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