Morning Audibles 5.10.10 Flash Crash Rewind

Because of this news:

EU Crafts $962 Billion Show of Force to Halt Crisis

Futures are up more than 5% and it appears that the 'bid' on the S&P futures will take the market to an OPEN around 1160...

Which leaves CV to ponder (a point that I rigorously debated and defended, ON MY OWN, last week)... A certain WSWB was credited as being a "genius", a "hero", last week for going all cash. As I recall, the SPX was at 1154 at that point that the announcement was made... CV pointed out that it was "pure luck", and that, in fact, many of the traders on this blog had already made "short bets" closer to the 1219 level.

My point was, how in Sam Hill could any computer algorithm predict a "Flash Crash" (for whatever reason it was precipitated - which is a subject that has already been endlessly noodled)... I suppose, those same algos weren't set with the same parameters that there would be a $962B (that's a "B", not an "M" for the fat finger types - Tuesday they'll probably come in and say that they "fat fingered" that bailout as well and the markets will tank again) bailout announced on Sunday night...

Anyway, here we are back OVER the SPX level that TWSWB made his famous announcement (and bathed himself in accolades for)... Is he still a hero? Sure, I guess...

It works the same way with the market itself... When the market is "melting up", it's supposed to be that way... There's no such thing as LIMIT UP...

CV is just this guy anyway... Nothing to see here, go about your business...


---
Posted by Andy T 5/10/10

Good Evening Capitalists,

This author doesn't have any clue about what happened last week, so I won't even pretend to understand or explain it. "It is it what it is." This is what can happen in markets where almost everybody is long and nobody is that short. That is why stocks can go 'bidless' and crash. It was probably some sort of "mistake" that caused a stock like Accenture to hit ZERO in a nano-second, but the way this "mistake" caused all Global stock exchanges, commodities, bonds and currencies to all react in a hugely negative way should serve as a powerful reminder of how "fragile" and connected these markets remain. So much for diversification....

There is only one way to diversify: Stay long some amount of cash*.

*Cash does NOT mean municipal bonds, corporate bonds, US Treasuries or money markets.

DXY Update With Some S&P 9 May 2010

236 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 236   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

@MCF @Amen

From other thread

It WAS a fat finger trade...

They actually meant to bail out the Eurozone by $962 million, and they accidentally keted in BILLION...

McFearless said...

From Mish:

World Needs Dollars To Defend The Euro

Inquiring minds note Fed to reopen dollar swap program
The Federal Reserve is going to reopen a program set up during the financial crisis, to make sure foreign banks have the dollars they need, the European Central Bank announced late Sunday. The Fed will ship dollars overseas through the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. The Bank of Japan will be considering similar measures soon, the ECB said. The facilities are designed to help improve liquidity conditions in U.S. dollar funding markets and to prevent the spread of strains to other markets and other financial centers, the ECB said in a statement on its web site. The ECB said the first repurchase operations for dollars against ECB-eligible collateral would be carried out on Tuesday.
Gee, fancy that. The world needs more dollars to defend the Euro.

AmenRa said...

CV

and yet the SEC is meeting to find out what hapened. They want to try and slow down trades in extreme down moves. I call BS. It should work in both directions. Period. The SEC better try to explain why there are no circuit breakers going up.

CV said...

KD pretty much says it all...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2299-But-You-Love-Bailing-Out-Greece,-Right.html

BinT said...

Well, there are puzzles for me too.

Why should our 17% IMF funding for this European problem go forward. Did the Europeans offer to fund 17% of our nuclear option? Why is the American taxpayer getting saddled with such massive future promissory notes?

Why does this still seem like Tar Baby? We are globally creating debt by proxy, and the real suckers are the taxpayers. One of these days we are going to realize we are stuck. Greece pay off this loan? NACIH...(Not a chance....)Fannie and Freddie...ditto.

Mine opened...gotta go.

Anonymous said...

Financial Talibans! All those Banksteres and CBs and govts. intent on destroying Capatilism and free markets!

Keep on printing baby!. Print, Print, Print your way. What's a Trillion here, trillion there.

Banksters are entilted to bail out.

Anonymous said...

Where is Karma when you need it!

CV said...

Karma is a chamelion...

It appears Boy George had it right all along...

BinT said...

This big government/global government/socialism thingy may take a little longer for me to get used to than I thought. When investing in equities has become nothing more than lemmings going to and fro...sometimes away from the cliff, sometimes toward it...

...I've just gotta get my mind right, Luke...

karen said...

good morning! this will be wild! got cash and coffee! btw, rule 48?

Nic said...

The crash was because your puts were too cheap. They ain't cheap now. No one but banksters are allowed to profit.
As evidence I present:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aHRgsfzJINXw

Anonymous said...

Euro Carry currency! German manufactures will love it. Germans are smart. Their banks get bailed out and their manufacturers will get to export more.

CV said...

@karen

Yeah... Rule 48...

"Suspend pricing until JPM & GS get to purchase as many May SPY110's as they want... When they are satisfied, open up trading for Johnny"...

karen said...

sold all faz, fxp and vxx and something else last week, TFG.

CV said...

Frankly - The only way to trade this is to AVOID going for any big score...

Let the Euro rise for a couple of days, then short it...

Until when?

Until they realize that $962B ain't enough... When the SHTF again (sending JCT & Co into closed door meetings over a weekend)... COVER...

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is still a holder of FAZ and FXP and, despite early morning plummet, still green. I look forward to the rest of this week or even what things are looking like by the end of the day. I might actually get my shot at TZA now.

Nic said...

Do any of you wavers have a comment on this guys EURUSD analysis?
http://www.wavetimes.com/medium-term-elliott-wave-analysis-eurusd/

CV said...

I'm still wondering how all these volatile moves are going to skew the TECHNICALS...

Also... Last week they NULLIFIED all trades between a certain timeframe under certain volatility parameters...

Think we'll hear something like that today? HA!

Nic said...

Karen, I totally agree with this BTW:
http://www.businessinsider.com/60-minutes-runs-feature-on-strategic-defaults-and-now-everyone-wants-to-know-how-they-can-get-in-on-it-2010-5

BinT said...

last week was volatile, CV?


...Oh.

AmenRa said...

CV

Uh oh. First five 1-min candles are up...

CV said...

@Amen

9 green candles in a row...

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY got his TZA at 6.45. Holding breath.

72bat said...

what's br doing?
Mike in Nola Says:
Barry,
I assume you have reversed your search for good shorts? I’m sure there will be some, but how long will it take for them to materialize after the squeeze?
~~~
BR: This is a major unexpected change — I need to review market internals and make adjustments before putting on major positions.

CV said...

See...TWSWB sold EARLY...

He cost his clients money! - lol

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

When you get a minute, I'd like you to write me the 2010 definition of volatile....

...and you may not use the work unexpectedly in the prologue or the definition. (Bruce's rules)...TIA

karen said...

i have never had such a difficult time getting filled on my short etfs.. UFB..

McFearless said...

anyone watch any media this morning?

I cannot believe what I'm hearing, I didn't hear a single person advise caution after last week, they all say "great buying opportunity". Volatility last week, we haven't seen anything yet.

I'll be interested to see where put/call closes today. Options traders are such great contrary indicators.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'm having all kinds of issues getting orders filled this morning, big surprise, I don't trade on a super computer.

mcHAPPY said...

I love how no one is blinking at the fact the ECB/EU/FED/US are all re-writing the rules, breaking constitutions, and destroying future generations in the process.

AmenRa said...

SPX shot through the monthly 3LB mid at 1141.16, the daily mid at 1142.24 but has run into resistance at the weekly 3LB mid of 1164.08.

SPX Vol A/D on Friday was 0.10. Today it's 142.10+
UFB

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

Difficulty on long or short orders?

CV said...

@McF

My Commodore 64 is filling orders left and right (on the wrong side of the trade - lol, jk)...

CV thinks this is all funny...

McFearless said...

McHappy,

between last week and today it's been both. fortunately I'm not in a panic to get out of stocks for clients, otherwise I'd be trippin right now.

AmenRa said...

Decision time for the EURUSD as it sits at 1.2935

Mannwich said...

The dash for trash is back!

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I was curious because my TZA order got filled very quickly as soon as it hit 6.45. I would have liked to of put the order in for 6.35 instead but beggars can't be choosers.

karen said...

Received an email from a darling female friend asking if she should buy aapl this morning! i sent her that ratigan rant.. and said after last week's crash, that my skepticism for the market had only increased..

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/05/video-dylan-ratigan-explains-thursdays.html

McFearless said...

yeah I don't think you'll have much trouble with something like that (TZA) I'd think it would be ok, anything with normally low volume I wouldn't touch right now, you are just outmatched against the bots with those things, you can't beat them.

Leftback said...

How d'you like that bazooka...?

Caught a whiff of this Friday as traders sold Ts... unusual Friday action. So we slapped on some HYG and TBT for a trade, having also raised cash.

The best time to put on short positions? After a monster squeeze... but we may have to be patient...

McFearless said...

"the pervese result of Primary Wave 2 will be that people get more fully invested than they were at the top"

- Robert Prechter.

let's not forget how each second wave "felt" in 2007/08. I have deja vu about 30x a day anymore.

Mannwich said...

The concept of "money" has officially lost all of its supposed meaning.

mcHAPPY said...

Jamie and Lloyd are playing rock, paper, scissors to decide who hits sell button.

Did anyone notice GS released many more pending investigations today?

Did anyone notice despite all the madness Moody's is down 8% as of a few minutes ago?

Hmmmmmmmmm..... stay patient bears.

CV said...

FWIW

I'll be bold here and make a call that we extend back up to 1190-ish, then ROLL back over on Wednesday...

McFearless said...

lefty,

I agree, I'm not sure if I'll buy any puts today, I'm looking but we could just as easily rally into the middle of the week.

Barry Ritholtz said...

You lot are a bunch of utter utter disloyal bastards ...

Mannwich said...

In other "news", not one trading day loss for Goldman last quarter. Is that even statistically possible in a "normal" "market"? Or is Goldman itself "the market" now?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unfuckingbelievable-goldman-has-zero-trading-loss-days-last-quarter

mcHAPPY said...

That be some good tradin'

McFearless said...

man, my spelling is downright awful.

Mannwich said...

Meanwhile, no profits for Fannie for the "indefinite future". LOL.

Mannwich said...

The link.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/fannie-mae-115-billion-loss-sees-no.html

Leftback said...

LB says this puppy rolls upwards into the auctions on Wed and Thurs. Karen, is that you? LB almost lost control of his joystick...

Nic said...

World Bond yields (10yr) change: US (+13bps); GER (+18); UK (+10); SPN (-50); IT (-30); GRC (-570); POR (-138).

EUR is only going one way based on these numbers

Leftback said...

no profits

sometimes referred to in bidness as "losses"

AmenRa said...

Some humor on the reasons for Thursday crash: A Fictional Look At The 25 Minute Market Crash

CV said...

@TWSWB (aka BR)

"You lot are a bunch of utter utter disloyal bastards"

My loyalty is inversely correlated to boat shopping...

Nic said...

That has got to be a yellow card for LB

Mannwich said...

@lb: But does it matter if everyone merely pretends those losses don't exist? It seems not in the new "Alice & Wonderland" economy.

mcHAPPY said...

We have Andy's count and We may be seeing wave 4 green down. The most probable turning point for the dollar may lie about 83.62 to 83.77.Thereafter downwards movement should end and the dollar should continue it’s rise towards 86.84 to end wave 3 pink. Because wave 4 cannot move into wave 1 price territory the invalidation point for this wave count is at 82.68.

The low on the DXY overnight was 82.90. I can't read Andy's charts at work but I think his invalidation was 82.71 (can anyone verify this?)

I think we get a major shakeout of buyers today tomorrow.

I-Man said...

Morning folks...

Just feeling like we all should take a step back here and remind ourselves to be cool.

We've seen this before... I-Man bought this kind of mayhem back in 2008, and it almost destroyed the I.

This is all playing out just like the fall of 2008.

This kind of nonsense is precisely why I had my SPXU team take in half on Friday at the close...

This is when we need to have the game face on. Its what comes next that we want to be short for. Last week was just a taste.

I know most of you know this... just saying it to reiterate.

1L,
-I

Anonymous said...

Financialpost.com,"Euro rallies expected to fade quickly."

RBC Capitals Market's London Foreign Exchange analyst Elsa Lognos said in a report,"Whether this lasts will depend on the periphery states using this breathing space to implemnet the fiscal tightening as promised.."

Remains difficult to see single currency sustaining any kind of streanth.

She expects Euro/USD rallies to fade quickly and maintain low $1.20 target for 12 months.

Does anyone really believe this will work out?

Mannwich said...

I'm actually glad we're rallying. Not short anymore (still hold some TLT). This will give me a chance to load up if I'm patient here.

Mannwich said...

I'm just more stunned and horrified by what's going on every day now.

The fact that Goldman doesn't even bother to throw in a few token trading day losses is revealing, IMO.

McFearless said...

"Does anyone really believe this will work out?"

Appears to me that many people do, perhaps even the net. We should know better, but social mood just doesn't allow "knowing better"

Leftback said...

Agreed with I-Man, let them squeeze this up to SPX 1175-1190. The best time to get short is when all shorts have been removed from the market.

Sit back and watch this thing grind upwards.

Nic, I was talking about my Play Station here... referee !!

I-Man said...

I will add that vol like this really wreaks havoc on a risk managment system...

Just takes some getting used to, getting the vol back.

Should make us all rich tho, if we keep our shit wired tight.

mcHAPPY said...

@manny

Why would GS bother to throw in a couple of losses? The only people upset are us and Dylan. Obviously we either a) don't matter or b) can't do anything about it.

Hopefully the Treasury is unloading some C today.

Mannwich said...

Key question though - "work out" for whom? It certainly won't "work out" for the vast majority of us, but it always seems to for that small and exclusive group these bailouts are intended to help, no?

The management said...

Barry said You are a bunch of disloyal bastards.

...Mr. Ritholtz, you must remain on topic and agree with me, or you may be banned. Consider this a warning.

McFearless said...

just keep watching the put/call. It was easy to see last week too many people were early in calling for a short squeeze because there were no shorts, not easy to see the 'flash crash' just that we werent' set up for short squeeze..yet. Put/call exploded Friday so today is no shock. As of 9 this morning we are getting a .88 put/call. it was .45 as we approached the top, most optimistic betting in the options pits in a decade.

You can follow along here if you don't have access to the date at work/on platform:

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

McFearless said...

"I will add that vol like this really wreaks havoc on a risk managment system..."

algo's to whipsawed? I think so. How many new programs out there just got made to catch stocks at .01? this summer will likely be insane.

Leftback said...

Banks and Pension Funds, Manny. If they blow up, that's when TSHTF. Hence the proliferation of bazookas.

mcHAPPY said...

Did anyone notice the main stock market indices that were NOT up huge today?

India down 1.3%

Shanghai up 0.4%

Does it mean anything?

Leftback said...

Watch these bastards grind shorts mercilessly here, perhaps for a week or more. Treasuries and Bucky will go backwards but only to the auctions.

I believe I stated Friday that Bucky and Ts would take a breather. Between the charts and the bazookas, we were overdue for a pullback.

mcHAPPY said...

RBS to cut another 2600 jobs.

LOL, all the bad news is coming out today.

I-Man said...

13 green 1min candles to start the SPX today...

I'm laughing... out loud.

Cant you just hear a fat guy with a NY accent selling hot dogs, 2 for $5?


"Step right up and get em while they're hot folks!!! Buy now!!! This offer is for a limited time only!!!!"

Leftback said...

McH: The EM/commodity currency trade remains OFF.

Leftback said...

"RBS to cut another 2600 jobs."

Interesting... UBS is hiring like crazy in Stamford, where RBS has new HQ.

Mannwich said...

Exactly my point, lb. The irony is if the banks continue to "do so well" at the expense of everyone else, they will eventually go down with us all in UGLY fashion.

Leftback said...

Better get long guys, might be "priced out for ever..."

Mannwich said...

I'll be backing up the truck for some more TLT in the coming days/weeks. Just gotta stay patient.

I-Man said...

Ole MM sure has a way with dem words:

"So what we're left with is that a financial firestorm with its genesis in private sector off balance sheet SPVs is being solved at the sovereign level with a limited-funding SPV to guarantee to the periphery. Niiiiceeee...."

Winner!

McFearless said...

Manny,

Under the surface banks are hardly doing so well. Think of it like all the consumers that thought they were doing well from 03-07 because they could get equity out of their never ending rising in value home. Banks are likely headed for a major shitstorm this summer. Watch the MW interview from last week.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Hence "the quotes" in my post. It's all "pretend".

karen said...

LB @ 10:26, long guys? where?

CV said...

Fat guy selling hot dogs says...

"Hey I-Man... I'm not FAT, I'm HUSKY!"...

CV said...

NYC accent goes with that...(10:32)

DL said...

CV @ 10:32

Gravitationally challenged.

Nic said...

EUR is getting spanked cos of IMF statement:
"IMF warned that the massive bailout concocted over the weekend is not a long-term solution to the euro’s problems."
Duuuh

mcHAPPY said...

Last week was:

Down HUGE intraday, down big end of day.

Today might be:

Up HUGE intraday, up big end of day.

It is amazing this is all a trillion dollars buys these days.

DL said...

Some time today (or possibly tomorrow), it'll pay to go short for a day.

Leftback said...

Wow, Karen. LB has lost focus completely. Was there a market...?

mcHAPPY said...

While the markets struggle to tread water, Bucky is quietly flirting with 84.

mcHAPPY said...

DL

It already has.

BinT said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/10/business/10lobby.html?ref=business

Banks Lobbying Against Derivatives Trading Ban

...I know you guys saw the UNexpected headline...

Nic said...

Greek bonds are being absolutely slammed right now. Market still thinks Greece will default and I am assuming they think the money is not there yet to get buying

I-Man said...

Is that really you, Karen? Or are you just toying with the Englishmon?

DL said...

McH @ 10:39

Yeah, probably.

DL said...

I-Man,

She wears many faces.

I-Man said...

She wont answer me anyway... :)

So... anyone else got 1185-1190 on the radar?

Leftback said...

LB has to do some meetings now. Can't wait to see what Karen... I mean, the market.... is wearing... I mean, doing... this afternoon...

Check you all later..

Leftback said...

1175-1190 is the LB target.

karen said...

I-Man, well, it isn't Irène Jacob, laughing. I bot srs and sds.. might do qid..

karen said...

Mine was 1160.. i added 10 pts to 1050 for euphoria..

I-Man said...

Didnt do any homework over the weekend... I just got 1190 off of this mornings action.

I kinda hope you're right though on 1160.

I-Man said...

VIX at 30, time to get dirty.

I-Man said...

Nic, WTF on that EURJPY chart overnight? Thats just crazy...

Very similar to the AUDJPY.

I know those are more volatile crosses, but thats just sick.

McFearless said...

The thing about 1190 is that there is a big gap just above it from 5/4, I'd think if we had the energy to get all the way up there then this isn't a second wave, that gap gets closed, and we'd be looking at new highs.

Nic said...

Crazy days I-Man
Get yourself a European broker and you can do that with 400-1 leverage (and kiss goodbye to your money) :)

McFearless said...

Nic,

look like the EUR rolling over again to you?

Nic said...

Verrrrrrry interesting video:
http://www.businessinsider.com/video-from-a-trader-who-just-didnt-trade-on-thursday-562010-2010-5

Nic said...

McF
I think so re: EUR
Greek bonds are ugly and there is a gap to fill

McFearless said...

I've never used it for trading but some of the astro analysts are looking for some serious carnage this summer, early June specifically.

karen said...

http://www.youtube.com/themistrading#p/u/0/d_CHwBugl1A

joe saluzzi is fantastic in this clip.. cover your ears and eyes MB..
santeli says we retest the lows.

McFearless said...

Is that you karen?

you love the beach don't you?

karen said...

I've got shivers over that clip, Nic!!

(Ben, Las Conchas, Puerto Peñasco, Mex, many years ago!)

I-Man said...

Bumping some "Picture Me Rollin" in the ipod, B22...

Can you see me?

CV said...

@Nic

"the massive bailout concocted over the weekend is not a long-term solution to the euro’s problems"

It's been over a half century since anyone even TRIED to have a long term solution for anything...

The only difference is... Swinging from vine to vine has gone from decades, to years, to months, and now sometimes days & minutes...

McFearless said...

I, you know it. I gotta step up my game I guess, I've got Jackson Browne on in my office, lol.

I-Man said...

LOL...

The Pretender.

I'd rather be a contender...

No offense, Jackson Browne fans.

McFearless said...

put buying steadily building all morning, hmmm.

karen said...

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The fallout from the European debt crisis raises the risk of a “double dip” recession for the global economy, said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd.

“When you have a vulnerable post-crisis economic recovery and crises reverberating in the aftermath of that, you have some very serious risks to the global business cycle,” Roach said in an interview today on Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene. “This concept of the global double dip which no one wants to talk about,” he said, “is alive and well.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag29h7Czezxw&pos=5

karen said...

Ha! this time my limit buy got filled quickly.. qid @ 16.66. my motto today seems to be, "Better Sorry Than Safe."

I-Man said...

I expected a lot more chatter from this crowd today...

Dont know what to make of that.

karen said...

I know, I-Man.. maybe I should take my face down.. or maybe we are all in shock and awe... personally, i think $gold should be up $100..

spoonman said...

waiting with bated breath...

karen said...

wow, gordon brown stepping down!

I-Man said...

Check 1min QQQQ @ 10:57


Check 1min SPY @ 12:15

Nic said...

Gordon Brown stepping down isnt all good news IMO.
Clegg couldn't be seen to do a deal with him politically, now he has stepped down it clears the way for a Labour/Libdem coalition. So although Conservatives get the most votes they could be out of power

mcHAPPY said...

@I

Can't type holding my breath.

BinT said...

Addendum:

"Obama also lamented the spread of social media and blogs, through which "some of the craziest claims can quickly claim traction."

Now you see it.....!

mcHAPPY said...

That is scary, Bruce.

A lot of RP's claims are coming true.... this is one of them. It would appear an authoritarian Obama is emerging. I'm starting to miss W.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

McHappy:

The November election can't come soon enough to suit me. I wasn't crazy about Bush, but I didn't see this coming. And apparently this massive increase in government can't be derailed until we have a new congress.

mcHAPPY said...

"Obama also lamented the spread of social media and blogs, through which "some of the craziest claims can quickly claim traction"

I would have to agree with him. Remember the crash was caused by a fat finger mistake? Oh... wait a minute, that was CNBC/MSM selling that line which the masses obviously bought hook, line, and sinker because I had to explain the difference over Mother's Day dinner yesterday.

AmenRa said...

BinT, mcHAPPY

He just realized that people have caught on to the BS and will blog, skype, facebook, twitter, etc about the BS. I guess he believed with all of the TV appearances, weekly webchat, etc. that he could maintain some form of control.
.
.
.
.
.
.
NOT

Nic said...

No more Macro-Man :(
He is off to CT

72bat said...

ben -
thanks for this link http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
9:00 AM 0.88
9:30 AM 0.89
10:00 AM 0.96
10:30 AM 1.00
11:00 AM 1.03
11:30 AM 1.04

mcHAPPY said...

And we broke 84 on the DXY. If you are long, nothing to worry about I'm sure.

I-Man said...

Thats sad...

MM is one of my morning cornerstones.

Realize there are a grip of funds in that babylon land of Greenwich... but ten bucks says he's going to Tudor.

McFearless said...

I,

I'm slammed at work or I'd be typing away, I don't think I've ever been more "pumped" going into the summer.

DL said...

B/T @ 12:38

Does appear likely that Pelosi will be de-throned.

I-Man said...

1126?

mcHAPPY said...

I, is that the close you mean?

DL said...

B/T @ 12:28

On the subject of Obama and technology, I don't like where they're going with this "net neutrality" thing.

Sort of like socialism for the bandwith-hogging companies.

mcHAPPY said...

Oil is certainly have a tough time staying up. Looks like Lloyd unloaded another tanker around 9:30EST this morning.

mcHAPPY said...

Since LB is not here, I'll have to pin back Bucky's ears.

I-Man said...

@ McH

Possibly... 1152 should hold resistance if so. If price can maintain support at 1150, then that sets up a move to 1175 or so tomorrow or Wed.

Also watching the 1140 level, 55 ema on the 15min chart. (If 1150 breaks)

McFearless said...

BinT,

According to Socionomic history this is only the start re: Obama. I'm quite afraid of what's going to happen in the US in the coming years. I doubt I'll live here the rest of my life, but I worry the longer I wait, the less options I'll have.

McFearless said...

@72,

NP, I find watching put/call to be pretty helpful, especially if you are trading intraday.

DL said...

McF @ 1:27

If you decide to relinquish your citizenship, be aware that the IRS can tax you on the way out.

McFearless said...

@McHappy,
I'm not sure if it's part of free week but RP put out an interim report over the weekend if you have access it's interesting, lots more cycle/fibo charts in there, I haven't read it all the way through in detail yet.

McFearless said...

DL,

i'd expect nothing less, but thanks for the heads up, I have no immediate plans of going anywhere.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Damn,

The market is down 100 from its high today? Shouldn't we be tuning in to CNBC or something? How can this be happening?

...I am never going to get the hang of this market timing thingy....

mcHAPPY said...

FXP is getting hit right now.

DL said...

B/T @ 1:36

Most of us will "never get the hang" of doing surgery.

BinT said...

It's not hard, the trick is to keep your eyes open the whole time!

DL said...

I got short ESM0 @ 1159, but I'd like to cover it before the 9:30 open tomorrow.

Mannwich said...

Jim Rickards weighs in with some interesting (and scary) thoughts.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-rickards-goldman-can-create-shorts-faster-europe-can-print-money

Leftback said...

Shocker about Macro Man. Will miss that blog like no other.

spoonman said...

By that standard, market timing isn't hard either, just buy at the top and sell at the bottom...

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I'm not seeing free week. When I log in with my EWI free account I do not get anything. Do you know when it starts?

spoonman said...

Macro Man was definitely an amazing blog. Just when I finally was able to understand what he was talking about too!

McFearless said...

Awww, poor baby, first interview:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6470184n

"We are first time homebuyers, we didn't know home prices were overvalued, we just knew we had to get in before prices kept going up and up and up"

My comment: Look asshole, your statement alone reveals your over abundance of ingornace as well as your participation in the global idiot bubble. If you "don't know about housing" why are you getting involved in the first place? Because everyone else was? You don't deserve a bailout and you do deserve to lose.

If they think real estate is bad, wait until they see what happens to their stocks/retirement accounts.

I suppose this is all part of the recovery though yes?

BinT said...

Spoonman:

You are right! As the southern boy once said," Gosh, before today I didn't know what a market timer was, and now I are one!"

I have indeed tried that buying high and selling low thingy. And I keep hearing commercials for lottery tickets in Tennessee, and from the commercials I really ought to buy a few next week so that I can buy Canada.....

McFearless said...

McHappy, I'm not sure, I thought it was this week, maybe I'm wrong and only the last EWT was for free.

Mannwich said...

@ben: It's the VERY same rationale to buy stocks now. "Don't know (or care) why it's going up. I just want in to make some money like everyone else". Same damn thing.

Leftback said...

Some days I wish I just stuffed all my money in a pillow and slept for 5 years, or however long this global idiot thing takes to play out.

Other days, trading seems like fun...

MM is such a good writer I am sure that he will resurface at some point. Everyone living in Fraudfield County officially works at a hedge fund now, except for one bloke who drives the trash truck and the ladies who work at Dunkin' Donuts.

Leftback said...

Demand is picking up for Treasuries again.

karen said...

GS red if anyone cares.. but goog still up 25+, and aapl above $250,

McFearless said...

so what Macro Man blog shutting down?

that's a bummer.

Mannwich said...

24% of all mortgages in negative net equity land. The reflation efforts will continue unabated. Too much at stake for those in charge.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/report-112-million-us-properties-with.html

DL said...

Mannwich @ 1:58

If that number (24%) is accurate, it shows a high level of optimism among homeowners.

Which suggests to me that quite a few of them will still be underwater 5 years from now.

(I'd be long gone if I were 24% under).

I-Man said...

Buckle I and I seatbelts for some afternoon vol...

McFearless said...

oh and btw, if you watch the link all the way to the end, my buddy from the start says he has no responsibility for any of this, he should not be held accountable for the loss on that home.

What an asshole.

and yes, the Fed continues to put for their best efforts to destroy the dollar and re-inflate. Seems to be they are, thus far, 0-2.

I-Man said...

Damn... the blogosphere lost Steenbarger today also...

WTF?

Guess I need a new gig too.

I-Man said...

He's keeping it up as a resource though, a damn fine one at that, for those that have yet to surf it:

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

McFearless said...

DL,

Anecdotal of course, but I hear people say all the time "dont' want to sell now b/c the market hasn't come back yet"

I typically respond with "you think bubbles 'come back'"

Which is typically followed by this:

Weelllllll.....and then a blank stare as the confusion sets in.

spoonman said...

Can someone explain to me why volatility(pricing) is inversely correlated with the market direction? Should they be independent? Upward volatility like this morning kills call sellers just the same as downward volatility kills put sellers, no? But the VIX dropped like a rock on the rally...

I-Man said...

1152 is going to be a showdown, either way... we either gun up to 1175, or break down to 1126.

McFearless said...

spoon, this document should be able to answer your question:

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

DL said...

I-Man @ 2:08

Yeah, I've read some of his stuff...
some of it is worthwhile

DL said...

McF @ 2:11

I would add that one should also consider how the put/call ratio changes on a day like this.

DL said...

McF @ 2:09

Tell them that they need look no further than the Nasdaq (the more sophisticated among them can look at the Nikkei 225).

spoonman said...

thanks McF

Mannwich said...

Or simple delusion, DL. Or is that two sides of the same coin?

McFearless said...

DL,

Yes, good point on Put/call, it was fairly obvious a put/call at .45 a few weeks along with seeing distribution days via the II Buy Climax tool which hit a 20 year high, that something big was setting up, of course, I didn't expect it to be 1k pts in a few minutes, lol.

I think for now it's a decent tool but it will likely lose all near term value in P3 because intraday swings are going to be huge and make it hard to find any decent long term comparison. I like it as a backup to help confirm where you are at in the wave count.

CV said...

Macys retracing 78.6% of it's 52 week high...

Flash Crash... Now, back to shopping Americans!

Shop bitches shop!

DL said...

McF @ 2:21

Well, what I was getting at more is the issue of PREMIUMS on puts versus premiums on calls, in response to spoonman's question.

It would seem that today, the magnitude of the contraction on put premiums would be much greater than the magnitude of the expansion of call premiums... that should result in a lower VIX.

I-Man said...

Not liking the chop here... probably setting up some kind of bullshit into the close ramp job by the usual suspects.

(And I dont mean Rick Ross and Nas...)

McFearless said...

Check out GS....lots of people keep trying to buy the dip there. Ugly.

karen said...

ben, yes on GS! i mentioned it at 1:57 as well..

bob said...

Very glad I am not doing anything today.

I-Man said...

Yeah, them GS peeps sure know how to distribute...

Leftback said...

Yup, this is a good day for watching, or having modest longs/hedges.

Karen, your icons were delightful. Miss them already....

mcHAPPY said...

Sold half my FXP for TZA. I do not like how FXP correlates to the Chinese market i.e. it doesn't.

anti-iconoclast said...

Agree with Leftback

Leftback said...

FXP is a double short of FXI, which is a basket of Shanghai stocks ("red chips") that trade in Hong Kong. It usually trades like the NASDAQ, from my observations. Love the TZA idea, not going to play it just yet.

CV said...

Well if we close here at 1151.85, that'll be 2 closes IN A ROW right on FIBO extensions...

Friday right on .09 (1110)

Today right on .0557 (1152)

mcHAPPY said...

CV

What are your thoughts on tomorrow? If we have a big down day, mcHAPPY will be out of his positions with (hopefully) small gains.

McFearless said...

spying puts on ANF into the close, CAT as well.

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