TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Memorial Day S&P Post

Memorial Day S&P Post

As promised, here are some thoughts on the S&P 500. Unfortunately, for shorter term trading, it's similar to the Gold count in that we're in a "No Man's Land." A case can easily be made for a good bounce back to the 1147-1175 (circa June futures) zone. Alternatively, one cannot rule out a severe collapse. So, it's probably best to look toward the bigger picture, which looks bearish. I'm about 20% of a Max Short position at this point because a strong bounce seems better than a 50% bet--I want plenty of "dry powder" if we see the 1147-->1175.

Sideways congestion or a break of 1036 over the the next several days would make me increase short positions.

---

Note from CV... I'm leaving Andy T's chart analysis to ride as the thread for Tuesday, June 1st as it is a very good analysis after a long weekend (and I wanted to keep the accumulated comment section in tact)... Good luck with your trades today...

If you missed it, check out Andy's GOLD chart from the Sunday Evening Post...

SP500 Update 31 May 10

294 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 294 of 294 Newer› Newest»

McFearless said...: Krugman has some really good ideas:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/governments-panicked-about-spending-and-debt-are-about-to-make-the-biggest-mistake-ever-says-paul-krugman-497215.html?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,uup,udn,tlt,tbt,spy&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=; June 1, 2010 at 2:44 PM
McFearless said...: Moving forward I will only call Krugman one of the following:

1. The other beard
2. Wizard Jr.
3. Mini Wizard
4. That Idiot; June 1, 2010 at 2:44 PM
CV said...: @I-Man (2:41)

I'd have used this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPrSVkTRb24; June 1, 2010 at 2:46 PM
karen said...: I like idiot! I use that word to describe myself a lot, too.; June 1, 2010 at 2:47 PM
CV said...: @McF

We'll settle on TBIJW "The Bearded idiot Junior Wizard"; June 1, 2010 at 2:48 PM
karen said...: But, Krugman takes the word to a whole new level.. I like TOB, now.

BTW, thanks for the Gore(y) link.. sent that to my husband.. hope it makes him feel better!; June 1, 2010 at 2:49 PM
I-Man said...: Love it, CV!

Would have, but I-Man is a statesmen. Had to leave here with smiles and gratitude. Cant be burning any bridges... even if they are bridges to babylon.; June 1, 2010 at 2:50 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

The SPX did gap below 1090 when it crossed it the last time. FWIW; June 1, 2010 at 2:53 PM
karen said...: wonder if this tick was real or a mistake..

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m5; June 1, 2010 at 2:54 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Yeah, well, it gapped under 1110 too (which IMO - is a more important number)...; June 1, 2010 at 2:55 PM
McFearless said...: I'm seeing a trend with the beards, lots of bad guys with beards:

1. Krugman
2. the real Wizard
3. J. Paulsen (the poorer one)
4. james Galbraith

I think I saw a little 3 day shadow going on with Fred Mishkin last I saw him....he's still trying to grow a real one but can only get a Joe Dirt beard.

Who did I miss?; June 1, 2010 at 2:57 PM
AmenRa said...: You mean to tell me that the woman suing Google doesn't know how to get out of the way of a vehicle? Geezus.; June 1, 2010 at 2:58 PM
bob said...: The beard is only half of it. Bald with beard equals pure evil.; June 1, 2010 at 3:00 PM
BinT said...: How about TMP for Krugman?

(The Money Pit)...; June 1, 2010 at 3:01 PM
McFearless said...: bob,

you are correct, bald plus beard is the ultimate red flag (or double stop sign)

Guess we can take Mr. Wells Capital Mgmt off there for now.; June 1, 2010 at 3:01 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

That would include Taleb wouldn't it? OTOH he has a goatee so maybe not.; June 1, 2010 at 3:03 PM
CV said...: 1084

DL's got some thinkin to do...; June 1, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: CV @ 3:09, I <3 U !!!; June 1, 2010 at 3:12 PM
I-Man said...: I-Man just bought 4 Powerball tickets...

Who needs work?

;); June 1, 2010 at 3:13 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 3:09

Don't know what you mean. Bought two S&P's at 1084; sold them at 1091.

I'm waiting for an entry point (long or short)... don't see anything at the moment.; June 1, 2010 at 3:18 PM
McFearless said...: Ra,

the more Wharton MBA's I talk with the more I think Taleb's book has done future market studends a great disservice.

markets are NOT a random walk, and that dude couldn't trade his way out of a wet paper bag...for starters.; June 1, 2010 at 3:19 PM
karen said...: DL @ 3:09.. my sunshine, we forgot you move at the speed of light : ); June 1, 2010 at 3:19 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 3:19

I operate on different timeframes. Still a believer in ETF's... when I think I can hold them for at least a few weeks.; June 1, 2010 at 3:23 PM
AmenRa said...: Whoa! I leave to take out the garbage and I come back and see the SPX is doing the same thing.; June 1, 2010 at 3:26 PM
karen said...: gdx and the miners are in a state of confusion right now..; June 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM
I-Man said...: This is a sight to behold...

1074 is calling.; June 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM
karen said...: i hate faz.. i know i'm damned if i do sell and damned if i don't..; June 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM
karen said...: seriously, is this market being fixed?; June 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM
I-Man said...: At least do SKF...; June 1, 2010 at 3:30 PM
Anonymous said...: They could go from making "cars" to making "license plates"...

pretty funny-

Detroit is interesting though- as many American cities are- boom towns- based on manufacturing- Detroit went from 250,000 people in 1900 to 2,000,000 by 1950 to 900,000 today-

one century boom to bust- maybe it will become a ghost town; June 1, 2010 at 3:30 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Only as long as TPTB have positions to get out of...; June 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Saw this somewhere today,"A Buck in the bush beats two loonies in the hand".

As long as China is in the woodshed.; June 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM
McFearless said...: BP is in deep shit. You knew after obama stuck his name on it "this is MY responsibility" that if (read, as soon as) things got worse or top fill didn't work then he'd have to start making political moves.

At the start of last month about 33% of people didn't approve of how he was handling this spill, most recent polls I see are now closer to 50-55%, and I'm guessing, just going out on a limb here, that the most recent polls would show say..... 62% don't approve.; June 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 3:29

Glad to see you've finally come around to that view (re FAZ).

Regarding your other 3:29 post, Ritholtz would say that you're paranoid.; June 1, 2010 at 3:32 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 3:31

Gradually becoming his Katrina.

(And on that score, ya gotta feel a little sorry for the people who live in New Orleans).; June 1, 2010 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: today is not a big volume day.. i wonder if TPTB are still in the Hamptons.; June 1, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Anonymous said...: "BP Starts New Plan to Control Spill as Its Shares Plunge"

I think I've seen this before-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP08RMumatI; June 1, 2010 at 3:37 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Yes but they can trigger the algos from their iPad.; June 1, 2010 at 3:38 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

No doubt re: NO people. They just can't catch a break. It's all that voodoo down there.

but they got a Super Bowl at least.; June 1, 2010 at 3:39 PM
McFearless said...: Karen ,

yeah, volume is nothing to write home about, I'm not reading much into today's action.; June 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM
I-Man said...: I'll read into it alot more if we close below 1074; June 1, 2010 at 3:41 PM
CV said...: Let's build up on a city held together by a levee system in a hurricane path...

Who'd have ever thought something would EVER go wrong there?; June 1, 2010 at 3:44 PM
karen said...: DL, i guess i am paranoid.. because i'm weary having to second guess my second guesses.. and know that in general the candlesticks are you-know-what!; June 1, 2010 at 3:45 PM
McFearless said...: did anyone watch the 1 hr presentation by Faber over at BR's?

it's nothing new if you read him regularly but worth it perhaps if you don't and are interested in his views.; June 1, 2010 at 3:45 PM
AmenRa said...: Let's see:
daily fibos
.09= 1079.61 (tested earlier and being tested again)
.1459= 1073.52 (if test fails)
.236= 1063.70 (TSHTF); June 1, 2010 at 3:46 PM
mcHAPPY said...: 1078.49 has not been bested.

1078.55 was close but no cigar.

I think this could be the biggest bear trap ever - well at least since the last one, sort of like each jobs number is the most important ever.; June 1, 2010 at 3:46 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Contrarian indicator strikes again.; June 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM
McFearless said...: squiggles McHappy, squiggles

I used to try to count intraday....; June 1, 2010 at 3:48 PM
I-Man said...: This is going to be one of those "Saved by the Bell" closes...

Or saved by the daytraders closes...; June 1, 2010 at 3:50 PM
I-Man said...: Maybe 1074 on the nose though, for the final print.; June 1, 2010 at 3:50 PM
CV said...: MUST...NOT...CLOSE...UNDER... 10,000; June 1, 2010 at 3:51 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

I was thinking that also. LMAO.; June 1, 2010 at 3:52 PM
AmenRa said...: Cuz what can happen in the final 5 min can blow your mind nowadays.; June 1, 2010 at 3:52 PM
I-Man said...: Wednesday night's shenanigans bought someone 3 trading days.

Hope it was worth the disturbance to the Force...

Sow wind, and reap the whirlwind.; June 1, 2010 at 3:54 PM
AmenRa said...: K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!...K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!; June 1, 2010 at 3:55 PM
McFearless said...: remember when it was the 3:30 or 3:45 ramp job every day?

cue the dylan

the times,....they are a changin!; June 1, 2010 at 3:56 PM
Anonymous said...: CV-

dude- I just realized your hat reads Dow 00,000-

I thought it read 10,000-

I posted a hat a few days ago that showed 5,000- thinking that that dude's hat was being a bit more aggressive than your hat in the dow call-

guess I had that wrong; June 1, 2010 at 3:57 PM
I-Man said...: Someone's unloading WEIGHT...; June 1, 2010 at 3:58 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I suppose we could get a bounce tomorrow morning.; June 1, 2010 at 3:59 PM
Anonymous said...: the market went south quick-

can the bull market be resurrected- that's the question; June 1, 2010 at 4:00 PM
I-Man said...: Ahab, you mean the one from 1982 to 2000?

Sure... at SPX 800.; June 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM
McFearless said...: based on what DL, other than that we sold off into the close? Anything behind that...or is it a "feeling"?; June 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I feel ill.; June 1, 2010 at 4:02 PM
AmenRa said...: Bears enjoyed a bull shish kabob into the close.; June 1, 2010 at 4:02 PM
McFearless said...: looking at short term screens, this was another distribution day I think. There were traders back from vacation.; June 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: Welcome to the pit, brah.; June 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

The fact that the Dow avoided closing below 10k will be seen as bullish by the MSM.; June 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ra

This bear did not. Ugh... first time I ever try to play things safe and this is how it turns out. Shoot me - it is bear season afterall.; June 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

So are you saying that the traders looked at their screens and said f*#& this...; June 1, 2010 at 4:04 PM
McFearless said...: here is the triangle we were forming today, Dan posted this chart at 3 pm, now we know where the wave ended:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TAVZWKtgOzI/AAAAAAAAFi4/Yq86sF-WXtc/s1600/dow5.png; June 1, 2010 at 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: I-man-

let me re-phrase- can the rally be resurrected-

. . .and does it seem to anyone else that the middle of the day is "hunt and destroy" for stop losses; June 1, 2010 at 4:05 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 4:01,

I don't have any magic indicators.

Just a guess.; June 1, 2010 at 4:05 PM
AmenRa said...: mcH

The trin held above 1 most of the day and had a high of 3.64 going into the close.; June 1, 2010 at 4:06 PM
karen said...: sold my FAZ into the close at 15.88.. Now, please never let me buy it again!; June 1, 2010 at 4:06 PM
karen said...: distribution most definitely.. agree with ben.. that's why ackman was on tv pushing C..; June 1, 2010 at 4:08 PM
I-Man said...: DL, I could see a modest bounce tomorrow morning at the 1062 level back up to 1074 or so before the trend continues lower to resolve the 1040s.

Not the highest probability trade, but probably worth a swing if you're playing the countertrends.; June 1, 2010 at 4:08 PM
McFearless said...: Ra,

Sort of, but really its just more of the same, big money players have been selling shit to John for months now, the investors intelligence buy climax program has shown recently a 20 year high in buy climaxes revealing strong hands selling to weak ones. it's been going on since late last summer and building the higher we went and all along the way people got more bullish and bought less and less protection. So really I think it's just more of the same.

Unfortunately for John (and most pundits?) they got all juiced up over the weekend and still think it's a good idea to buy the dips. Put call stayed under 1 all the way to 3 pm....

they will buy most of the way down, just in time to .......SELL.; June 1, 2010 at 4:10 PM
karen said...: sorry, i'm just cyncial.. there is a nice h&s on C, tho.. 3.50 is a given : ); June 1, 2010 at 4:10 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 4:08

Yeah, I'd like to see the S&P get back to 1050 or so... I'd put some money to work in ETF's with the intention of holding until July.; June 1, 2010 at 4:13 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

oh come on, don't want to reveal your secrets for position taking?

I know you aren't just buying those mini's on feelings?

You developing a secret quant or something?

If I were inclined I might trade for a bounce tomorrow but I'll probably just watch.; June 1, 2010 at 4:14 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 4:14

If I could trade full time, there are countless opportunities I'd jump on.

Maybe one of these days...; June 1, 2010 at 4:15 PM
I-Man said...: I cant wait to start trading again...

Just drooling at even the thought of it.; June 1, 2010 at 4:16 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Since you're drooling you might want to do some Tai Chi before hitting the buy button :-); June 1, 2010 at 4:24 PM
I-Man said...: No shit, right?

The thing is though, thankfully the risk management will be up to someone else now.

I can just focus on putting the right trades on, and learn from the system the error of my ways.; June 1, 2010 at 4:31 PM
McFearless said...: we are right on the neckline of Andy's slide 2 now.....; June 1, 2010 at 4:32 PM
I-Man said...: I'm pretty good at spotting trades, but I'm a dipshit at controlling risk...

Its a bad combo.; June 1, 2010 at 4:34 PM
I-Man said...: Shit! I keep meaning to check out the AT charts but keep getting distracted.; June 1, 2010 at 4:35 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

We got our agenda of events for the LA trip in August, so we've got this as a potential for Saturday night:

7 p.m.
“Hollywood Goes Bollywood” Party
Shrine Auditorium and Exposition Center

and it says this under attire:

When choosing your attire for this special night, let your creativity flow. Click here for a list of costume websites ranging from inexpensive to extravagant. Costumes are not required, but they are encouraged!

Hmmm....I'm thinking Pirate or Wizard....in that order. If those aren't available I'll serve as a "stand-in" for the Blue Man Group skipping face paint and going for full body paint.; June 1, 2010 at 4:37 PM
McFearless said...: I-man,

this S&P update is one of AT's best in a while. the waves are getting clear, he's going to start nailing calls....you heard it here first.; June 1, 2010 at 4:38 PM
Very Hot Girl who thinks Leftback is Cool said...: "I'm a dipshit at controlling risk..."

That's why Gentlemen Prefer Bonds...; June 1, 2010 at 4:44 PM
I-Man said...: OK, long overdue, but thanks Andy for the chartwork!

I really like the way you continue to illustrate the different outcomes... there are indeed ALWAYS many potential outcomes.

Slide 11 lines up the most with what I've got going on. My latest SPX monthly should be up tonight.

My basic forecast is one that comes to conclusion around the 800 level, late this summer or early fall. I think that move will "feel like a crash"... but my preliminary take is that it wont be.

Too many factors going on... kind of leaning on Armstrong's capital flow analysis at the moment for the fundamental rationale of why it wont be a 30s style all out debacle down to SPX 500 or 350, some targets I've heard tossed around before. But ultimately, I guess I really dont care what the fundamental rationale is. Best to leave that to the historians.; June 1, 2010 at 4:45 PM
McFearless said...: VXX options were active again today but sounds like a lot of retail playing...and they are buying Sept Calls on VXX:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/a/u/0/ksSHJpMu2Vw

and I didn't see anyone link Mr. Top Step today:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/a/u/1/fAkDDZmHkLg; June 1, 2010 at 4:59 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

Thanks for the links.; June 1, 2010 at 5:17 PM
AmenRa said...: NEW THREAD UP; June 1, 2010 at 5:18 PM

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Memorial Day S&P Post

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