Morning Audibles 3.17.10 - Happy St. Patricks Day!

Call me dumb, call me idiotic. It took me this long to figure it out. 13 green candles in a row on the SPY. Never been done before in the history of mankind. What's the meaning of it this time? Why now? 

Nothing has changed. Not even for this guy:


We're still fighting wars, unemployment is still way up. Deficits are increasing, entitlements programs, which are only "promises" in the first place, are being bloated to the point of insolvency. The world is still warming (I guess - rolls eyes... Hmm maybe it's "overheating" because of all that free money). The only thing that works, (until it doesn't), are bankers bonuses. The banks that are PAYING those bonuses are insolvent and getting money from the taxpayers to make more bad bets and further enrich themselves.

But then it hit me... This has just been an early St. Patricks Day celebration. We're good at celebrating things in this country (something, I think, we learned from the Romans - before the Irish). I mean, assuming you get through tonight's celebrations, hopefully you'll have enough energy to wake up tomorrow for March Madness (which extends all the way through "this" Tournament, (where they give out a, yup, you guessed it, "green jacket" for a prize - and all the flora & fauna that comes with it, wink, wink!)...

So, at least for a day, if you're a bear, don't worry if your portfolio is doing one of these numbers:


Or even if you're a bull, that's fine too, just keep distracting yourself:

I'm sure it will all work out in the end because those "Chicago politicians" (now transplanted in Washington), sure know how to do things right!
Wait, you're doing it WRONG again!

This is how I'd do it! (But what do I know? I'm just a lowly blog journalist - I might as well just be the Unabomber for crying out loud.)


254 comments:

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karen said...

This ticker makes me see red:

Toll Brothers Steps Up Land Buying Activities
3:08 PM ET 3/17/10 | GlobeNewswire
Since the start of its fiscal year 2010, Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) (www.tollbrothers.com), the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, has stepped up its land buying activities. In the last four months, the Company has purchased or put under control approximately 3,000 home sites via mortgage note purchases and direct acquisitions of real estate. Most recently, the Company purchased Hasentree in Wake Forest, North Carolina, the area's premier residential golf course community. The seller was a financial institution. Toll Brothers acquired the community's remaining 318 home sites, its Tom Fazio designed golf course, walking trails and 13,000-square-foot Family Activity Club. The Company plans to immediately resume work on the community and has also placed other properties in the area under contract.

I-Man said...

Oh... did we just go 2nd page?

Leftback said...

AmenRa @ 2:57 Do you mostly "go naked"...?

That's a TMI there, good buddy.
Unless you're asking Karen.

LB is a massive Georgetown fan. Big East kicks Candy Ass ACC and Big 10.
No UCLA, Arizona, weird scenes...

I-Man said...

That was weird... I just went lost in space for a second there...

I-Man said...

Big reversal in SLX this afternoon... hmm...

Mannwich said...

TLT looking a little perky.

McFearless said...

Anon,

Up, it's almost right out of the textbook if I'm counting correctly, would like AT's input because like a lot of charts, fitting an impulse out of the bigger move can be, uh....tricky.

Start by counting that big peak in July of last year as A, and it's not a running triangle b/c wave B didn't exceed the start of Wave A.

The sub-waves are zig-zags
The C wave looks more complex than all the others, which is common and didn't move beyond the end of A.

Wave D didn't move beyond the end of B either.


Perhaps something to keep an eye on.

On another note, just to make it hard, are we not going to close above 10,725, great, lol.

Also, I just took a look at SWHC, taken a nice little beating the last few days, going to look back at AT's charts on this one and see where we are at. Could be a nice trade again there since I didn't go along for the ride the first time.

BIDU has looked sleepy all day.

McFearless said...

Karen,

3:15, Hovnanian was on CNBC the other day, they are doing the same thing as Toll.

karen said...

view from your bother's house?!

I-Man said...

Sup with the Jamaican flag in there McF?

karen said...

ben, putting a floor under the market? do they get to borrow at 0% too?

CV said...

Ladies & Gentlemen...

As always, CV has to check out a little early on Wednesdays...

Amen Ra's Daily Candle Wrap will be set to launch at 5:30 sharp on the next thread...

Another HEADS up... Today will be the LAST DAY for anyone to get in to the March Madness Fantasy NCAA Bracket Tournament (a lot of people here are already signed up)...

If you're not, you can sign up at YAHOO Fantasy sports, and follow the "Tournament Links" to our group (visible instructions are on last Saturdays thread which you can retrieve from the blog archive in the right column)...

GROUP ID# 26140
PASSWORD: p3isamyth

For fun, now that Obama has made his picks public, I'm going to make a 'dummy' entry for his picks (no pun intended there)...

So see how you do against the group and the Prez...

Over & out...

OH... IMPORTANT... Late this evening I'll have a special NCAA Tournament writeup (like I did for the Oscars)... I'll feature the teams that CV thinks make it through this weekend...

That'll launch late this evening west coast time (midnight EST)...

McFearless said...

Iman,

That is me, in Jamaica.

Some side store where I got rum punch on the way back to the airport.

Mannwich said...

@karen: Not to mention all the extra tax advantages/write-offs the homebuilders were allowed during this mess, so they go and use what was in effect a bailout to buy more land. Priceless. Gee, I wonder why the Feds don't extend such a helping hand to losers like myself who got clobbered on trading losses in '09? Maybe they could let us write off more than a measly $3K a year? I think not. Too small to bail.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I didn't know what to make of it, but I do know that I didn't agree with much of anything that the CEO was saying. He seemed on board with an idea of 100% homeownership in the states, of course, why wouldn't I expect a CEO of a homebuilder to think like that.

McFearless said...

Some people were talking about an inverse H&S on the S&P that would target 1168-1178, which I guess you could argue we hit today.

I-Man said...

Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.

DL said...

"Never ask a barber if you need a haircut"

...or a realtor if "now" is a good time to buy a house.

karen said...

I despise Robert Toll.. he is either a liar or an idiot or a lying idiot.. i've been following his gibberish for years.

BTW: Over the last five years there has not been an insider stock purchase at TOL.

Mannwich said...

@karen: I vote lying idiot. We're a country run by those types now.

McFearless said...

@I-man,

Have you ever been to Jamaica?

I had the time of my life down there. If you ever get to take your wife I'd def. say to go for it. The people there were awesome.

McFearless said...

Karen,

You really made my day with that post about running events, most excited I've been in weeks!

Anonymous said...

Banks are selling off? - Some Cdn and C are red. Look at Loonie. Almost at par.

I-Man said...

Just had one of the inept banking graybeards drop by my cube to rub in...

"How bout this market!? you're not still betting against this thing are you?"

Dick.

Like I'd even waste breath on my calls with these douchebags. I didnt even let on that I have upside targets... better to keep them guessing.

Mannwich said...

For a good laugh. I'll sum up the Fed's argument for retaining banking "supervision" (and I use that term loosely) duties:

"We sucked less than the other regulators."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/bernanke-on-bank-supervision.html

DL said...

Karen @ 3:38

I'll go with lying, rich idiot.

I-Man said...

@ B

Nope... never been. My sis has been down there several times on church trips to TrenchTown where they do charity work and stuff.

Of course I'd love to go sometime... what I'd like to do is get way up to Cockpit Country for awhile and chill countrystyle, then do a week in Mo Bay or one of the resort spots.

I'll probably end up in the VI's first... a bit more low pro.

McFearless said...

I-man,

So funny, we had a woman there that was our "butler" as part of the hotel package we got and she's driving us around the resort one day and going on and on about her sister and how she was this crazy ass banker that was into stocks. She went on to say how she hated that lifestyle and enjoyed working at the resort, spending time on the beach and keeping things simple, how she would hate that job. She then asked me what I did for work and my wife and I just started laughing.

DL said...

From banker to butler.

Perhaps some poetic justice in there somewhere.

I-Man said...

I have so much love and respect for the Jamaican people...

I wrote my thesis on Jamaica- the influence of reggae on sociopolitics in the latter half of the 20th century.

It really is a sad plight... the Jamaican economy has experienced zero growth in the last 40 years or so... the education system is a mess, a lot of disillusionment.

The music tells the tale very well. It is the outlet for so many youth. Kinda like hoop-dreams are to the innercity.

McFearless said...

And just a tip, but you probably already know, go in the summer, it's dirt cheap to go there in the summer.

Leftback said...

I -

The Blue Mountains are an idyllic spot. Kingston not be so Mello, Bro. Mo Bay is too touristic and fenced-in for LB.

Now if you ever get to Grenada, there is a spot to mellow out. It's so far from anywhere, the people aren't interested in being pro- or anti-US, British or anything. They be who they be. Also speak a delightful and totally unintelligible patois. Oh, there is rum, and beaches, and cricket.
Also recommended, Tobago. Unspoiled, the way it used to be - when 007 was evading Russian villains and bedding random foreign agents...

I-Man said...

Its tough really, I've wanted to go down there for a long time, but dont want to just sit in a resort and pretend- I also dont want to get my ass killed trying to see the "real Jamaica"...

karen said...

yeah, i agree with ben (?). the spx concluded that rever h&s.. let's see what tomorrow brings.. increased some short positions.

I-Man said...

Alright kids, the I is off for some ital grub...

Catcha lates-

karen said...

TGWIO (for you DL).

2small2bail said...

@Manny 3:32 - I hear ya brother - And, my state now asks you to itemize certain i-net purchases where you didn't pay sales tax - one way to close budget gaps (sigh)

McFearless said...

I agree I-man, I didn't realize just how much Marley meant to people there until I went there. I'm not even sure if there is a comparable figure in this country that so many people love and respect.

McFearless said...

We went all over the place there, but not Kingston, everyone told us to stay away from Kingston. For the most part it was not more risky than parts of Philly, in fact, I'd argue I felt safer most of the time.

karen said...

hope you'll all come back tomorrow for show and tell.. i may be in my red and black spanish dancer heels.. fishnets..

I-Man said...

How bout some birkenstocks?

JK...

I know that aint your style.

At least some garden clogs...

72bat said...

spent superbowl weekend in negril, west end the year of the freezer bowl in miami (mid-80's?)
negril, down-scale resort town, lovely place, unfortunately temps never rose above 64.
great "spice" cake baked in a hut right on the beach by an old mama

72bat said...

i could put on my low-heel earth shoes

72bat said...

off to orlando tomorrow for a 4-day weekend, to meet up with the kiddo flying in from ireland to accept her writing award.
i'll be in the air at the open so y'all keep the markets reasonable, now won't you, exerting your considerable group influence?

I-Man said...

Have fun Bat-

Mannwich said...

If anything comes of this, it would prove there is indeed a God.....and his name is not Jim Cramer.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-cramers-thestreet-being-investigated-sec

Leftback said...

Bernanke's Theorem

Let the 10 DMA of daily posts at Macro Man = y, and the number of consecutive days of positive closes in SPY = x, [with k being Bernanke's constant].

Then y = kÏ€√1/x, which tends to zero as x approaches infinity.

I-Man said...

Man... Palestinian food is the bomb!

I-Man said...

Sorry... that may have been too random... even for this crew.

Mannwich said...

I don't think so, I-Man. I just think that everyone has bailed for the day.

I-Man said...

Yeah... its a weird time of day for this spot.

This is always a weird time of day for me, because although my day starts on East Coast time... I work until 3pm pacific.

So, when most of yall are turning off the screens, I'm still here for a few hours, and get most of my work done before the mkt close so I'm often bored as shit from after I eat until 3pm.

I-Man said...

Oh well... guess I'll get back to faxing and filling out fixed annuity app's.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks for the pictures...I didn't know Karen was Irish..

2small2bail said...

LB - So would 1/y be 10 DMA of Ya-who Finance posts? y could equal bucky too! Is that n or Pi thrown in for cycle sake after Bernanke's constant? /over-analytic mode off/

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