Morning Audibles 3.15.10 The Ides of March

If you missed the thread from yesterday afternoon, we were fortunate to have an "addition", in that Andy T is now providing a weekly view of his technical chart analysis.


So in as much as this was a late addition, I thought I'd let it ride, and serve as the graphic feature for Morning Audibles* this morning. 







With the S&P 500 now rigorously testing the January highs, it's time to think about some of the bullish upside possibilities that exist.  In the medium term, a case can be made for the 1219 to 1235 on a decisive close above 1150 (suggest 1160?).   I'll re-emphasize the point I've made a few times over the last several months:  this remains the most unusual chart pattern I've ever studied or witnessed.  Any Elliotician who suggests they have a "good handle" on what is transpiring from the March lows is either a) deceiving themselves or b) unknowledgeable.


Given this sort of uncertainty over the wave count, it's probably best to just take things one week at a time. For now, the bulls remain "in control" with near term support at 1141. A break of 1141 should lead to a deeper correction. In the meantime, same as it ever was... Andy T


----

Andy paints a portrait as to what a "bull case" might look like should equities continue to rise.

It is ironic...
The 1149.99 close on Friday was peculiar to me... Especially coming on the heels of a much anticipated "jump" of the 1150 level (which I'd featured an image of "The Fonz" jumping the shark). So after that close, I wasn't sure if I just needed to invert the image from Friday and have Fonz jumping the other way. Then the idea of 99 cents came up. Numbers can sometimes have weird "psychological effect"... The 666 bottom on the S&P. The number 666 being drawn on the Illinois state lottery pick "3" the day after Obama's election (or when 911 came up in the New York lottery on the one year anniversary after the attacks on the World Trade Center). Of course these numbers are all a "coincidence", but it does not dismiss the oddity of their appearance. I also read a FEATURE article over the weekend that Google was 99.9% certain of something or other happening in China (flip 99.9 over, and you get 666).

Anyway, none of this serves any purpose other than entertainment. Can you "trade" off it? Probably not (which is why it's better to use "charts" as your guide). While Andy is not "making a bull case", per se, he's showing you what a bull case scenario might look like. 

On the other side of that are numbers on the downside that may also be visited. There are at least 10 chart gaps between 1149.99 all the way down to the recent "correction" low of 1044 (1+0+4+4=9). Some  think we need to close at least a few of those gaps (such as 1141, 1132, 1122, 1115) before the market can gather any steam to push higher. 

It is of note that with each of these new pushes to the upside, overall energy seems to be waning. Last summer, when the S&P pushed past 910, the A/D ratio was 29:1, In November it was 18:1, and most recently it was 13:1. It's getting harder and harder to move this market up, but it is still managing to do so. So perhaps any "symbolism" of "99" might mean something "up, up, and away" like this...






Or, I could just return you to your regularly scheduled association with the "99" which is nearest and dearest to all of out hearts:





131 comments:

CV said...

Oops...

I didn't get the "graphic link" to Andy's chart linked up properly...

I'll get that fixed ASAP...

If you're in a fret to look at it and haven't seen it yet, it's on the Sunday thread (yesterday)...

Tyler said...

Ah, Morning morning

CV said...

OK - I got the SCRIBD up, but the text font got weirded out by blogger...

Working on it...

CV

CV said...

@ben

I think you were mentioning CLNE yesterday...

Yeah... T Boone Pickens owns a major stake in that... I traded in an out of that a few years ago...

I think Pelosi has a bunch of shares in that as well...

call me ahab said...

have to roll out- but here is an interesting observations from NC-

"Michael Pettis from Beijing University argues that China’s reserves of $2.4 trillion – arguably $3 trillion – are a sign of weakness, not strength. Only twice before in modern history has a country amassed such a stash equal to 5pc-6pc of global GDP: the US in the 1920s, and Japan in the 1980s. Each time preceeded depression."

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/are-rising-us-china-tensions-pointing-to-a-rupture.html


I wonder if the future of the world all comes down to China and the US- and it all depends on how it plays out-

CV- excellent NCAA thread by the way-

all have a good day

I-Man said...

Quite the morning whippage...

CV said...

@I-Man

Looks to me like some of the tiny 1 minute gaps (from Friday) are trying to get filled...

I'll tell you though...

The ALGOS are sure set up on both sides of these gaps...

McFearless said...

C,

Yes I brought it up yesterday as the waves are looking good, then I noticed that T. Boone his wife and another director just unloaded a lot of shares. Going to keep an eye on it as a possible short.

CV said...

Look at UUP...

Today, so far, it's looking like what was a reverse H&S (going back to 9/8), is back "ON"...

It appears they tried to break it down Friday (and failed based on todays action thus far)...

Bucky could be ready to rumble...

I-Man said...

I feel like I've been waiting for the dollar to go ape on this tape forever...

Maybe the market was just waiting for AT to retire from the other site before unleashing P3.

CV said...

@McF

I bought into the idea (CLNE), because, well, I like the idea...

I think vehicles in this country SHOULD run on natty... (and in fact, I have a mechanism in my truck to make that happen)...

In the end tho, these "stations" that you'd have to fill up at are few and far between...

The REAL future in this is private citizens having their own "fill-up" tanks on their own properties... Then, you have come citywide distributors like the way CLNE is set up...

Anyway, cars "should" run on natty...

That would change a whole lot of things for the better (yet politicians don't seem to understand)...

I-Man said...

Damn... did yall see that Beckham will miss the Cup?

http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/news?slug=ap-beckhaminjured&prov=ap&type=lgns

As a soccer fan, that sucks.

As a USA fan, thats rad.

BTW did anyone see Messi yesterday???
That Rasta can PLAY.


Also, I think I got my bracket all set for the hoops yesterday... this should be fun!

CV said...

@I-Man

I don't know what the market is going to do here...

I can "see" all the probable levels to the downside, and I'm happy that Andy helped show what the upside might look like if it occurs...

Andy T said...

Baidu had it's "blow off" moment to 600's....that might be "it" for that beast.....Would love to see that settle with a huge shooting star...

CV said...

Don't forget that tomorrow (March 16th) is the day that Greece is supposed to have it's "austerity plan" in order...

and this is an OPEX week...

CV said...

@Andy

S*** (BIDU)... How did I miss that?

I've been talking about it non-stop for weeks now, and I miss the blow-off..

Good catch!

CV said...

I wonder if the BIDU "blowoff" came on the heels of the Google "99.9% sure" news?

karen said...

morning! i overslept big time.. why is the water taking so long to boil?! hope i didn't miss anything..

CV said...

@karen

BIDU might have "blown off"... & bucky looks to be getting a toehold...

karen said...

msft employess use iphones" for your morning chuckle

I-Man said...

Nice feet, K...

That was my morning chuckle.

karen said...

i meant to have a new pair up by today but didn't get that done (along with many other things!)

karen said...

anyone still following C? bearish engulfing on friday.. today could confirm.. another laugh! just looked at MS.. I have one friend that works there that wants to leave.. another friend that was recently hired that shouldn't have been.. so i KNOW it is being poorly managed..

karen said...

No offense to anyone, but i'm looking at DTO and thinking that there may really be a god..

I-Man said...

Maybe you should start a blog just posting your different paws each day...

Actually, there is probably a whole realm of the internet that already caters to that...

I-Man said...

Re: DTO

I'm all about that trade right now... Really liked the way it held 60 last week. Just enough of an undercut of 62 to flush out some weakies.

CV said...

Morning KABUKI THEATRE (this was entertaining)...

Santelli vs. Liesman - Part Deux

Becky Quick doesn't know what to do in the end... She's like... OK guys, stop fighting... let's get back to buying stocks here, hilarious!

McFearless said...

@C,

I dont' want to act like I know much about the logistics of such a thing because I don't but I think cars running on natty is also a good idea. I'm starting to see a lot more buses around here run on natty.

AmenRa said...

BIDU

Fibo ext: using low 384.66 (1/12/10), high 470.25 (1/15/10), retrace 406.73 (1/29/10) gives us a 161.8% at 545.21 and 261.8% at 630.80 (which was almost tested today).
Weekly 3LB reversal is 500.15, mid=526.36, and daily 3LB reversal is 538.59.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I really love that stone flooring in your picture. LOL.

karen said...

Now that I've had my coffee, I've realized why I overslept.. I was sprung forward this weekend..

McFearless said...

I believe the New Moon comes today?

I-Man said...

If we do top out this week, look for that whole commodity related sector to get punched in the nose pretty hard...

I'm thinking SLX, KOL, JJC, USO, XLE are going to get the worst of it.

And Tech, I dont even want to think about the pain thats likely in store for the AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PCLN's of the world.

I-Man said...

As per SPX,

I have 1142.5 tagged as a likely settling point for any breakdown that may occur this morning.

CV said...

@ben

If nothing else... vehicles running on nat gas reduce the need for foreign oil because we can produce almost all the nat gas we want right here...

Not to mention the effect that that would have on karens DTO position :-)

CV said...

It "jumped" the first 5 min ALGO gap to the downside at 1145...

All these gaps are "jump points" now...

It's still probably a yawner though because the PPT probably won't be bothered to be called until the 1122-1115 area...

karen said...

last week i was thinking about the crude/natgas ratio.. no way that can hold.. is nat gas cheaper than water now? well, definitely some waters.

CV said...

I'll be interested to see if a "trail of breadcrumbs" is left...

That is... Like I've said "x-million" times since 1044, there are gaps all over the chart...

Ironically, 1048-1050 was a previous gap left open from the January move down (it was the last one yet to be filled, and it got filled on Friday)...

Moving downwards now, my theory is if there are a lot of GAPS left open again (mostly of the 5 minute chart variety)... That's suggestive of a "trading range" to be established...

If NO GAPS are left behind (no breadcrumbs), then we may be on out way to lower levels...

Anyway, it's a theory I'm entertaining...

CV said...

OK, so now the next gap is at 1138...

Double Down Johnny said...

Oooooohhhhhhhh, another dip! I'd better double down.

karen said...

I'm dying over this Jamie Foxx interview.. Won't mean much if you haven't seen Precious.

karen said...

i did not realize that tomorrow was FOMC day!

8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil
8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag.
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision

I-Man said...

Probably a good swing trade set-up here in SPXU with a stop at 32.10.

Initial upside target 33.83.

CV said...

UUP put in what looks like an island reversal, but it's meeting resistance at it's most recent downtrend line...

Bucky really needs to get out of bed here...

karen said...

Credit Card Watch

CV said...

@karen

Nowadays I'd tend to cast a VERY WARY eye on any news that credit card companies are putting out...

I mean hell, with REPO 105, and the stuff that's going on at some major banks with regards how they're "treating" payments & delinquencies...

There's NEVER ONE COCKROACH...

I wouldn't be surprised if Capital One is privately negotiating deals with delinquent customers ("here - just pay us a dollar a month")... So they can find a way to REPORT things better than they actually are...

Seems to be in vogue these days...

CV said...

In fact, it's probably widespread among ALL industries...

Hell, CSCO is doing a Lucent and carrying the loans for its customer sales...

Who's to say what kind of accounting they're doing on that, or whether or not its kosher...

karen said...

don't look but uup ticking up? another weird, weird day to me.. is this ever gonna end?

karen said...

guess you caught this:

Google shares down on report of stalemate in China
12:01 PM ET 3/15/10 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. shares slipped Monday following weekend reports that the company is planning to shutter its Chinese Web-search service after failing to come to agreement with the country's ruling authorities.

karen said...

is anyone else unable to read comments at ZH?

CV said...

@karen

Comment section is fine there from my POV...

...on google

That was part of my "99" theme in the thread (read the thread again if you didn't get it the first time)...

The number of "99"'s this weekend made me reflect a little...

-1149.99 (while everyone was focused on 1150)
- a Google article appeared on Bloomberg over the weekend that said "Google 99.9% sure to shutter operations"...

Stuff like that (plus - there was the "Get Smart" marathon)... :-)

I-Man said...

Yes, Karen, I-Man cant stand the comments at ZH...

CV said...

FWIW -

I just rand some FIBO numbers

from 1153.41

.013 = 1,138.41 (that's smack dab in the middle of the next gap down to fill)...

.021 = 1.129.18 (gap exists slightly above)

.034 = 1,115.19 (a visit down there would actually probably trigger a lot of selling to the downside if it were to get hit because it's on the other side of the OPEN GAP at 1115)...

CV said...

@I-Man

on ZH...

I think both karen & I were referring to whether or not the BROWSER was actually picking up the comment section...

At least that's how I interpreted karens question...

I-Man said...

Gotcha!

(giggle, giggle)

karen said...

hahaha.. i still cannot read the comments section at ZH, literally, cannot view them.

karen said...

and MM has the same four comments all day.. even though 5 preview on the side bar..

CV said...

There's ANOTHER "99"

gg=99

or, in google there are two g's, 99

karen said...

the only .99 i see is in fxe.. right now.

CV said...

@karen

Here... I'll help you out (on what you're missing with ZH comments)...

TYLER ARTICLE COMMENT SECTION

anon
x2

anon
x10

anon
x100

anon
Way to go Tyler!

Leo K
Buy solar stocks! (or be priced out forever)

goldbug
I told you to buy gold

anon
@goldbug "x2"

anon
@goldbug "x100"

robottrader
Look at these babes!

anon
x2 on the babes

---

That about sums it up...

CV said...

People in power make better liars, study shows

White House Press Release: "That study is completely false!"

CV said...

Is it true that it's 1PM already?

Man, this Daylight Savings thing is effecting me...

It doesn't feel so late...

karen said...

this will be good for a rally:

S&P Cuts Ratings On $4.54B Of CDOs Amid Subprime RMBS CutsFont 12:56 PM ET 3/15/10 | Dow Jones
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded $4.54 billion of U.S. collateralized debt obligations, reflecting deteriorating credit quality and recent downgrades on U.S. subprime residential mortgage-backed securities.

S&P has lowered ratings on hundreds of billions of dollars of RMBS and CDOs the past year as it continues to raise estimates on the amount of losses expected amid still-rising delinquencies.

DL said...

XRT (retailing ETF) is now $40/share, which is where it was in October of 2007.

A year ago, who'da thunk it?

karen said...

40 is the new new 30, DL.

karen said...

Thank you for posting, tho.. I do feel as if I'm in the Twilight Zon.

DL said...

K,

It's just you and CV today.

Tyler said...

XRT (retailing ETF) is now $40/share, which is where it was in October of 2007.

A year ago, who'da thunk it?


Credit crisis, what credit crisis?

or

What, me worry?

Onlooker said...

Hi gang, how's it going? Making a rare recent appearance here. Been busy doing other things and not real "talkative" lately anyway.

Market's a bit weak today but we may meander in a tight range for a few days before really breaking down. 1125 and then 1112 or so seem to be the first support levels that will be interesting to watch; unless we somehow get the oomph to go up first, which doesn't seem likely at this point. Bullishness way too high for that. Gotta get a dip first, at least.

I think we'll get another dip buying opportunity before the top is in, after the dollar makes another little run up and gets a significant correction; a larger degree second wave possibly, or an e wave of the triangle as Andy has proposed.

I'm back to a very short position and will assess as we go down; once again, assuming...

As to that study, I think they may have it backwards. I think that it's probably more like better liars are the people in power! Nothing real new there though. All a matter of degree. Pathological lying seems to be a prerequisite, for sure.

Nice Spring day here so I'll probably be scarce hereabouts, I think.

Tyler said...

Peter Boockvar said: In a ‘be careful of what you wish’ for moment, if China succumbs to the pressure of the US Congress and revalues before they are ready, they will acquire less reserves, less money will then be recycled into US Treasuries, and thus higher interest rates will follow as the largest holder buys less

sigh. so tired of such short sighted conclusions.

karen said...

BR featured this site.. color me enamored..
Consumer Metrics Institute

Onlooker said...

karen

Yeah, that growth index chart is intriguing, isn't it? And certainly foreshadows bad things to come in the economy and markets. That is, of course, assuming that it is good data and methodology.

Tyler said...

BR featured this site.
That was making its rounds last week, so BR is a little slow on the uptake. Nonetheless, BR has provided a number of really really good posts/links in the last little while or so.

Tyler said...

in/over

Tyler said...

Its hard to believe that one measly hour would mess biological systems/clocks up so much, but wow -- I can't believe its 2PM already!

DL said...

Tyler @ 1:47

Yeah, we keep hearing calls for China to stop "manipulating" its currency.

At least these people could be honest and say that they wish the Chinese would stop buying our Treasury bonds.

I do notice, though, that Chuck Schumer has been rather silent on this issue lately.

DL said...

I have enough trouble getting out of bed on Monday mornings as it is.... today was more difficult than usual.

Anonymous said...

Agree on getting out of bed, the DST thing kills me every year, this year just earlier than usual.

EURUSD broke through the MA 100 on the 8 hour, MA 20 at 1.3655 is the next support.

On the 4 hour it broke the MA 10. MA 50 at 1.3653 is the next support.

On the weekly, the MA 50 (climbing) just crossed through the MA 100 (declining. MA 20 is still above them both.

bob

CV said...

@karen

I had that first graph up here last week... I find that an interesting graph...

Also, I picked this up this morning (I hope this link works right)...ECRI Chart

It's Rosie's chart... It's always funny to me how the ECRI people are always running around jumping up and down when things are on the rise, but when they turn downward (like now - 4 weeks in a row)...

Not a peep!

CV said...

@bob

Tomorrow is supposedly when the SHTF on exactly WHAT the Greek "austerity plan" is and how the Eurozone will deal with it...

Frankly, we're in no-mans land on everything...

Everywhere around the blogosphere people seem to just be waiting around for "who knows what"?

Also, karen... I found out that ZH was juggling some functions around today (in which they had to take down some of the comment section intermittently)... They're still kind of working on it... Least that explains it...

Typical IDES OF MARCH...

WTH? St. Patricks Day two days away, then March Madness!

CV said...

@onlooker

Nice to see an appearance again...

Hey, any of you people BORED today can just go to this past Saturdays thread and follow the link to the March Madness NCAA basketball bracket Tournament...

That's what CV is doing today while watching the paint dry... (filling out my brackets)...

CV said...

Algos must be filling out their brackets too because this is setting up to be another LOW LOW LOW volume day on the SPY...

karen said...

key pts from Doug Noland's piece this weekend:

Unprecedented policy responses sent a clear message: the securities markets are too big to fail. Sure, the massive fiscal stimulus mobilized purchasing power throughout the economy. And, yes, the Trillion monetized by the Bernanke Federal Reserve unleashed a wall of liquidity upon the markets. Yet there's another critically important facet of system stabilization: The historic collapse of risk premiums - especially in mortgage and corporate debt - can be at least partially explained by the market's perception that Washington will respond to future crises with the Powell Doctrine of overwhelming fiscal and monetary force.

The market today perceives that essentially no amount of stimulus or monetization is out of bounds. The Fed is there as a backstop bid for debt securities, while the Treasury and Federal Reserve have teamed to establish a floor under GDP/national income. Market malformations now lie at the heart of the unfolding Bubble and go a long way toward explaining the market's complacency when it comes to the simultaneous contraction in private-sector Credit and explosion of federal debt and obligations.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16082.htm

DL said...

Karen @ 2:24

Which is why the next market meltdown could be even worse than the last one.

(However, I think that is still a few years in the future).

Anonymous said...

CV,

When do the brackets have to be filled in by? Is it the start of the first play in game or the start of the rest of the games?

I still have to consult my many indicators.

bob

mcHAPPY said...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2083-Oh-The-Huge-Manatee-LIESman-.vs.-Santelli.html

KD weighs in on the SmackDown. Personally mcHAPPY thinks they are all a bunch of candy-asses, if ya smell what mcHAPPY is cooking.

And one question for you all, whatcha gonna do with P3 runs wild on yoooooooou!

I-Man said...

Lets just start drinking now and bend our way through time and space into Saint Patties Day...

CV said...

@bob

All entries (FULL TOURNAMENT) must be made by Thursday...

The way the scoring goes, if a team that you selected does not advance, further games get x'ed out...

The latter part of the tournament you are awarded more points than the first two rounds...

So in your selections, try as best you can to envision the final four, then work backwards to elite 8, sweet 16 and so forth...

Anonymous said...

Joke for st paddy

Three guys sitting in a bar, one polish, one italian, one irish.

The polish guys says that in his country if you buy one drink they buy the next for you.

The italian guy says that's nothing. In his country when you buy one drink they buy the rest for you.

The irish guy says that his country is the best. You walk into a bar, they buy all of your drinks for you and after the bar they take you out and get your laid.

The other two don't believe him.

"It happened it my sister just last week"

bob

karen said...

I-Man, I'm thinking ketel one and carrot juice for lunch..

CV said...

For some reason, I found myself curiously looking up these passages on the internet this weekend...

Revelation 13

1: And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

2: And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear Bear Stearns, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion Merrill Lynch: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.

3: And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.Goldman Sachs

4: And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast This is the "False Prophet" the FED together with the USG: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?

5: And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.

6: And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.

7: And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.

8: And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.

9: If any man have an ear, let him hear.

10: He that leadeth into captivity shall go into captivity: he that killeth with the sword must be killed with the sword. Here is the patience and the faith of the saints.

11: And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon.

12: And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.

13: And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,

14: And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live."Equities appear to be undervalued" 3/09

15: And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.short sellers

16: And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:PPT, HFT, algos

17: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

18: Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six. (SPX 666)

CV said...

BIDU looks like its going to close as a massive "shooting star"...

I-Man said...

@ Karen

Throw a little ginger root in there... adds a nice touch with the carrot juice.

@ CV

Now you done done it, gettin biblical.

karen said...

i have fresh ginger.. mmm, what a tempting idea!

CV said...

@I-Man

That's how bored I am - LOL

Mind you, that was the WEEKEND that I dug that up... I'm less bored now that I've got my brackets to attend to :-)

CV said...

OK...

The SPY has an hour left to recover just a measly .2 percent and print it's 12th straight green candle...

11 was an "all time record" by the way for SPY... Never before in history (until this past Friday)...

I-Man said...

Wait til you see my bracket...

Its biblical.

I-Man said...

@ Karen

You'll love it. These rasta cats I know got me turned on to the carrot ginger juice awhile back.

Now I cant think carrot juice without it.

I-Man said...

@ SPY

Go ahead and print your stupid 115.19 and lets get on with it...

CV said...

From 2/5 (on SPY)...

It took 13 days to hit the bottom point of what is now the trendline since the correction low...

Tomorrow's candle will be 13 days hence... The trendline will be somewhere around the 1131 gap...

AmenRa said...

Did anyone else notice that the SPX open was 1148.53 and the previous close was 1149.99 a difference of 1.46 (aka a version of the fibo 14.6%). Sorry just bored.

Tyler said...

its looking like it will be a rewarding opex for calls buyers / put sellers ... put buyers / call writers, not so much (snark)

I-Man said...

I'm losing my grip on the 1min timeframe...

Fuckers.

I'm about to just keep my intraday calls to my damn self...

Anonymous said...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/15/175441/sp-euro-index-arbitrage-at-work/

Not sure the mechanics of this, but it could explain some of the divergence last week.

bob

Anonymous said...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/15/175441/sp-euro-index-arbitrage-at-work/

Not sure on the mechanics of this, but it could explain some of the divergence last week.

bob

I-Man said...

I know that this market is frustrating alot of traders... whatever their persuasion, be it long or short, 1min or 15min, daily or weekly...

Thats what I know.

Its that damn dark matter again, getting in the way of the light.

CV said...

@tyler

Do you, or does anybody have a number on the "max pain" # for March SPY?

CV said...

@I-Man

13-17: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

Anonymous said...

Apologies for the double post. I am in computer labs most of the time, moving from machine to machine. Hard to remember to log in, or maybe more importantly for me to log out.

bob

WolfStreet said...

Ok. let's be nasty then/emotional there :)

other blog rant resposted
Some dispensable stuff : fanck you very much C for having begun this whole bipolar mess following AT exit. I used to like you, until I read some of your "childish"/"marketing" lame comments here on this blog, just after AT exited.

Indeed, on the very day AT exited, you've been thinking about a "possible" business (your current blog now):

"I hate to sound like a Capitalist Pig, but the all of the regular contributers to "andystechnicals" need to think of yourselves as "franchise-editors"... Whether you actually do or not, you have to think in terms of, if it came down to it, you could "monetize" your input..."


And as a good "entrepreneur" you've managed to gather around you some great people

Also, before leaving, you've been somewhat whining about your balls. Like this thread where you were crying about a picture of your "frozen balls" not being accurate.

I may have been making useless comments on these boards, but I don't think I've shown such disregard for other people as you have.

Congrats anyway. Obviously your "VISION" (...) was right. Until it's not of course.

WolfStreet said...

At least that's entertaining, given current lame markets. PLUS it's a reflection on da author

Tyler said...

http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

keep in mind that mp is dynamic and changes with oi ... and the closer we get to opex as positions are offset

I-Man said...

It aint everyday that you see TLT and SPY trade higher step for step in unison...

Weird shit I tell ya.

Weird shit.

CV said...

@Wolf Street

I'm sorry you feel that way...

When I make a comment such as "you need to think of yourself as franchise editors", "if it came down to it, you could 'monetize' your input"...

My reference is to a professional approach to 'hosting' a blog... That's all I try to do here... It requires a great deal of time and effort to do so... Efforts that I only get rewarded with by knowing that I presented the best material I could (on a timely basis), and by attracting rich value with regards to what is contained in the comment section...

At this point, after 3 months, I can hardly remember any of the comments that I've made over at the other blog. As I recall, I made some comments one evening a few weeks ago... I was "irritated" in the process because, in fact, some of the posts I'd made were not showing up in the comment thread... Some of it seemed to have been rectified later on... In hosting my own blog, I realize that that happens on occasion...

It had been quite a long time since I'd posted there before... I hardly remember what I'd posted, but I apologize if it was offensive to anyone... I do recall the "meatball" post you're referring to... I also recall apologizing to Wes for any mis-interpretation of what I was trying to express...

It had to do with "photojournalism" more than anything else... So the worst I can say is that I apologize for having certain "photo-journalistic" preferences...

Bon chance! (in whatever you pursue)... I'm sure with your zeal, you could start up your own blog and keep it active...

Onlooker said...

WolfStreet

Oh good, I was afraid for a minute there that I would have to start sifting through comments, filtering yours out. Glad that's not to be the case.

Now get lost.

CV said...

Let's see what this thing "settles" at...

I'm getting 1150.43 as we speak...

CV said...

@onlooker

let it be...

CV said...

Ladies & gents

I gotta go... AMEN RA's DAILY CANDLE WRAP on for 5:30...

Still settling in here, 1150.52 was my last print...

Karen, you'll probably need two shots of ketel in that carrot juice drink... :-)

karen said...

I-Man.. I'm <3ing my carrot juice with ginger!! This is the weirdest day ever!

karen said...

i think i went 60/40, cv.. lol.

karen said...

and remember my ear thing? it is definitely stress related..

Off topic a little said...

My appologies, but I-man made a very good point that I agree with. I just posted this at Andy's gang and believe by rights should also be posted here.

Cveinne, if you would rather not have this posted again, please let me know and I wont

FROM ANDY'SGANG:

Wolfsteet – While I understand your point of view and am unhappy with the way Cvienne choose to split the blog and some of the petty infighting. I will also be the first to say Cvienne is a very intelligent man, both in a market sense and a political sense.

Andy had a good ride on his blog (Better then he may have expected) with many smart and capable people being drawn together in the process. Andy’s life took a turn where he was not able to devote the time to a blog and I believe that is a key aspect, the time and passion for what you find interesting.

It is obvious the people who have helped make this site (And hopefully continue too) have a passion for what they do, unfortunately most work or have other outside interests and are un-able to consistently contribute the time it takes.

Do I wish Cvienne would have dealt the end of Andy’s site differently, sure I do. But what is, is what is. Cvienne has the time and the passion, it is his site, this one is not, it is ours…… so in the end it is also his too. For good, bad or indifferent.

Because of the talent and purposeful points of view, I have and will continue to visit Cviennes blog, but as for that I am also in Thor’s boat “This may not make any sense to you, but I will not post on the other site out of principle. With the way CV went about the whole splintering of the group and the that "trying to discredit me" rant,” And have not posted – Until now, because I also 100% agree with I-man.

With that being said, Wolfsteet, I truly understand your sentiment and believe it is shared by others too. When we were at Andy’s, we were a family, with the ending of Andy’s blog, the family became fractured, there is much talent that owns this blog and for what it is worth it seems like that talent (I am assuming) feels split and or feels they have to “take sides”.

With that being said if there is any kissing and making up – I pick Leftback (JUST KIDDING leftback)

James

I-Man said...

That last 5min candle on the SPY chart just says it all.

Weird, its the new normal.

karen said...

I-Man, I beg you to tell me that is just a bad print!! pls!

I-Man said...

Someone said awhile ago humorously,

"Bad print: what market makers charge each other."

That may be true... I dont have the "structural" understanding of how the MM's and exchanges work to be able to say one way or the other.

But what I do know about is lines on charts.

And when a candle like that wicks out right on top of a significant trendline (15min chart)...

Its not a coincidence.

Am I a kook to wonder if maybe thats the market's way of telling us where it WANTED to close?

Sometimes I think I am, sometimes that makes sense.

Whats difficult for me when I muse about these things, is that ultimately I believe that the market trades where it wants to no matter what.

But that view is being tested the longer this beat goes on.

Anonymous said...

Tyler

Is it common for max pain to be this low compared to the price on SPY during OPEX week?

Going further out (past this month) max pain is a lot higher, although still below where we are now.

Great link, thanks again for sharing it.

bob

DL said...

Karen @ 4:08

Stress?

I imagined you living an idyllic life.

Anonymous said...

Forgot it is the quarterly expiration on SPY at the end of this month, not this week.

Still, that is quite a difference on the price to option activity. Very new to options so I really have no idea how they trend. Are there any general rules?

bob

WolfStreet said...

re CV:"Bon chance! (in whatever you pursue)... I'm sure with your zeal, you could start up your own blog and keep it active..." Merci CV!(very cunning :D) But why would I create my blog when I have 2 blogs for free?

WolfStreet said...

Onlooker:"Oh good, I was afraid for a minute there that I would have to start sifting through comments, filtering yours out. Glad that's not to be the case."

I admit that's a good one :D

Now you can filter this comment out. Won't avoid you losing money though..

CV said...

AMEN RA'S DAILY CANDLE WRAP UP

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