Morning Audibles 3.19.10 - How to Survive a RIPTIDE

I got to the party late last evening, (actually, didn't get to it until this morning). Nevertheless, I did enjoy reading all the "back and forth", and my metaphorical 'takeaway' was that it reflected exactly the position that traders find themselves in at the moment. The topics ranged from NCAA brackets (and bracket entries being "torn in half" with the quick exits from Georgetown, Marquette, & ND (Big East ain't representin' so well), to divorce letters, to rip tides. This was all in the backdrop of the eve of an OPEX Friday which happens to be a quadruple witching. Equities seem technically overbought, yet the DOW broke to new highs this week, suggesting 'bullish' technicals. Is the Fed 'accommodating' (with low rates for an extended period of time), or are they ending some programs at the end of the month? Is Greece bailed out or not? If so, by whom?




It's safe to say that none of those questions that anyone had on their minds when they went to sleep last night were answered this morning when they woke up. So the best CV can do (when faced with the question of where we're going, is to simply understand where we are).


I'm going to start with some basic FIBO levels from this weeks high on the SPX of 1169.84.


.008 = 1160.48
.013 = 1154.63
.021 = 1145.27


Those are pullback levels that could give it a little 'technical breather' from being overbought, but NOT dissuade and new bulls that might have come on board the past month, or so. Yesterday, SPX flirted with 1160-1161, but never touched it. Futures are down a little this morning and it's possible we'll be visiting that first number. It might be a good idea to watch the first 5 one minute candles to see how it behaves. Overall, however, today may be duller than most people expect (for an OPEX day). It seems like many INDIVIDUAL stocks are already "pinned" to their proper integers. One "head scratcher" for CV remains the fact that, the MAX PAIN for EOQ SPY was 106 the last time I checked. From where we are now, that would take many by surprise. It begs the question. How much of the move this past week was portfolio rebalancing for the end of the quarter, and how much remains to be done.


Another thing that caught CV's attention were, what seem to be "absurdly low" readings in the VIX (by contrast to the fundamental economic & geopolitical climate). So I took a look at the WEEKLY VIX going back a few years.




What stands out like a sore thumb is the fact that the VIX 16 level was only hit TWICE since the crisis began (and both times it served as a springboard for higher volatility, and lower equities going forward. The first 16 was during the October '07 highs (It had been elevated since the summer when the Fed "knew nothing - per Cramer", and decided to warm up the helicopter). Then, in May '08, it settled there at the PEAK of the May '08 rally (after, it was thought, that they had successfully 'contained' any financial meltdown to Bear Stearns). We're just about at 16 again, so stay tuned.


I'm not making any short to mid term bull or bear calls. Remember, the beginning of the week, Andy T put up a chart which showed a possible case for equities reaching the 1235 level (not an endorsement, just a scenario). I suppose on the downside, one can't completely dismiss that 106 MAX PAIN number on the SPY (Think of it this way - the January move from 1150 to 1044 was a .09 move - If you apply the same to 1169.84, that puts you down around 1064 - near the MAX PAIN for SPY). After today, there are still 8 trading days before the end of the month. Maybe some of those "minor fibos" I presented earlier could provide the map for baby steps. The "Greece Fire" still hasn't been put out. Peolsi is out there challenging the constitution trying to get HC passed. So it's hard to say what kind of RIP TIDE we're in.
In any case, here's how to survive a REAL one.


Or, the CNBC version. Just keep buying stocks.
Or, the Warren Buffett version. ("When the tide goes out")...


The other metaphor is "torn" (and I had to find a way to get a picture of Natalie Imbruglia on the screen, and otherwise set you up for music offerings later in the day - good luck!)







270 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 270   Newer›   Newest»
call me ahab said...

good post CV-

this caught my eye this morning-

"How Democrats will pay for health reform"- Yahoo Finance

" . . .employers [will] spend less money on health care, they will use the money saved to pay workers higher wages, or so the economic theory goes. The workers will then owe income tax on those higher wages, providing revenue to help pay for health reform."

hmmm . . .right

then this-

"$500 billion in savings from health programs like Medicare"

one wonders why that hasn't been done already if it's such a plausible idea- seems to me they could have been saving that money for years

Anonymous said...

From Macro-manblogspot.com/ Pennies in front of the steamroller .

Picked up on that Bloomberg story re Fed raising discount rate.

His advise? Sell your long positions if you havn't already.

I am torn about my Citi long position.

call me ahab said...

and call me gay . . .but I always liked that song Torn-

I pulled up a tab for it a while back and broke out my guitar- and my two sons started laughing at me-

guess it didn't pass their "man" test

karen said...

morning! my first post was erased when i scrolled up to click on your chart.. it was a good one, too.. oh well! haven't spilled the beans yet.. because i haven't started my coffee! thanks for the great post, cv..

guess what?! a friend just told me, 8 straight up days in the dow, glad i got back in the market two weeks ago.. hmmm.

call me ahab said...

but Anon- why question your C position-

it is backed by the "full faith and credit" of the USG(-:

CV said...

@ahab

I've just about reached the point that I've pushed HC all the way back into the dark recesses of my mind (a place where nobody should wish to travel)...

Last year, on TBP, all I ever did was get into trouble when I expressed my views on the subject...

The whole thing, at this point, seems so patently absurd... It's like you have these elected politicians in Washington pushing so hard for this thing that most Americans have expressed they don't want (in the way it is being presented), and nobody knows how pay for...

I'll sum it up...


---

Let me get this straight......We're trying to pass a health care plan written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn't understand it, passed by a Congress that hasn't read it but exempts themselves from it, to be signed by a President that also is exempt from it and hasn't read it (and who smokes), with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn't pay his taxes, all to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese, and financed by a country that's broke.

What the hell could possibly go wrong?

karen said...

"Premarket participants have been unenthused by the overall lack of corporate news flow and void economic calendar, though former Fed Chairman Greenspan is set to speak about the financial crisis just before noon. And while stories related to proposed financial support for Greece continue to come across news wires, any sort of clear or official resolution remains absent. Though the current tone of trade suggests a rather anticlimactic finish to this week, there could be a pickup in participation since this session marks a quadruple witching options expiration. Several indices are scheduled to be rebalanced, as well." briefing.com

karen said...

nice fxe drop gap down today.. and equal and opposite uup reaction..
xlf weakening! market can't run w/o the financials..

call me ahab said...

well CV- when you put it that way- why wouldn't American's be all for it(-:!!

my basic problem with it is you are mandated to get coverage-

fuck that- I hate any laws that attempt to protect people from themselves-

next on the list it will be mandated that I should put non-skid in my bath tub lest I fall and bump my head

CV said...

@bob

Keep us informed on the EURUSD (in your eyes)...

That battle is starting to heat up with Sarkozy & Frau Blucher going at it...

Anonymous said...

From my post at the other thread, any ideas on this?

Anyone else noticing that while USD gained some pips during the last 2days or so and Euro sliding down to 1.357 levels, Precious Metals seem to be hanging on, especially siver.

Prashant

karen said...

Prashant.. it is still all one trade. dollar doubters and pollyannas keep running for gold and risk.. a few more upward lurches in the dollar and it'll be risk off and the unloading will begin.. imo.

karen said...

Prashant, also, get over to Macro Man and read the comments as well..

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=34323687&postID=5727087755131663728

CV said...

Current standings of the NCAA bracket tournament... (with point total)...

1. ben22 - 12
1. Barack Obama - 12
3. I-Man - 11
4. CV - 10
4. anon - 10
4. anon - 10
4. anon - 10
8. P2GUF - 9
8. CV's bros friend - 9
10. CV's bro - 8
10. anon - 8
12. Jeff - 6

CV said...

@karen (9:49)

x2

karen said...

this friend just told me he will exit the market at 11K dow.. rolling my eyes!

CV said...

@karen

If it 'hits' 11K, then p3 starts... I'll check myself into an insane asylum!

I-Man said...

Ooohhh...

Nice VIX chart there.

karen said...

I hate $vix.. it can go sub 10! look at 2007.. of course, i'd rather it follow the course CV outlined above or i will be joining him in the asylum.

Anonymous said...

Ya, it is one trade, but the divergence is just continuing. Maybe, pointing to again a Euro bounce to 1.37/38 levels. That wd suck big time.
And forgot to mention, I just love Imbruglia.
Prashant

CV said...

@karen

Wanna see something funny (VIX related)... Follow this link...

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix

Then look at the topic headlines for the commentator guy in the box to the right...

Follow the article headlines (since February 4th - describing the condition)... pretty funny...

That SOB is about to have an aneurism...

karen said...

Prashant, i do not see any divergence.. just a little noise.. pull up weekly or monthly charts..

I-Man said...

Anyone catch the cover of the FT today?

The Repo 105 getting some front page time...

"Its not financial engineering, I think its cooking the books."

Havent gotten a chance to read it, but the cover story is about MER warning the SEC about liquidity concerns at LEH, months before the implosion.

JPM implicated as well.

This could make for some interesting conversations in DC and NYC over the weekend. People seem to pay attention when shit hits the cover of the FT.

Leftback said...

Hard to read much into days with incredibly low volume with traders glued to their screens, watching hoops!!

My money will be on Monday not being magic for bulls. Pump 'n' Dump.
Will be back later to talk bonds... and golf ! Awesome day out yesterday.*

*for those who are wondering, yes. I may flirt with Karen. Nice shoes.

I-Man said...

Ouch, sorry PALM!

You piece of shit... have fun on the pinks.

Mannwich said...

Finally, a little weakness here. Maybe?

Nic said...

I'm with Karen.
EURUSD is a good looking weekly bearflag. Commodity currencies on the verge of rolling over right now, even the lofty AUD. No mistaking the risk off message in FX today.

karen said...

CV! i love him! laughing hysterically.. i assume you mean: Lawrence G. McMillan

The last two issues have been entitled "Overbought market" and "Extremely overbought." Now, I've run out of adjectives to describe the magnitude of the overbought condition.

Mannwich said...

Tied for first in my money pool! Only first day of first round but I gotta get excited about SOMETHING, right? I won some dough in my FF league. Maybe the only way that I can "win" money is in sports pools and sports gambling. Time to find a bookie? Might be easier.

72bat said...

greetings from sunny orlando.
the bat didn't look at the market at all yesterday while traveling and this morning only peeked.
given this morning's action, i'll stay in florida and promise not to look at the markets at all if it continues this way.

CV said...

@LB

How was the golf yesterday...

I went out to the driving range and hit balls for an hour and a half... Hadn't picked up a club in a year...

I gotta say... CV was 'striping it'...

Soft floating crisp wedges, with tons of backspin, some nice 160 yard 8-irons which were holding into the wind... And about 10 wicked penetrating drives out to the 300 yard sign...

I was very happy!

CV said...

@karen

What's even funnier, is that the guy starts off all the way back in february with...

- Oversold Bounce, to trading range, to indecision, and on and on...

Pretty much says it all...

karen said...

greetings, back, bat! hope it's fun for you in orlando.. don't bother with the market, we've got it covered, no worries.

CV said...

If SPX goes UNDER 1160.48 for any period of time here, I'll start getting interested...

72bat said...

off to hear academic papers on "lewis carroll: influences & inspirations" e.g., "nonsense humor: a battlefield for ludwig wittgenstein or a playground for lewis carroll?"
as br sez, fun stuff

call me ahab said...

hitting the bike then hitting the office-

all have a fan-tab-u-lous day!

Mannwich said...

Is that red I see on my screen? Wait, let me rub my eyes to make sure.

CV said...

@72bat

If you're playing golf down there, make sure you're not THIS GUY...

http://christianservant.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/alligator-golf-004.jpg

I don't know what's worse...

- His grip
- His ball position
- The fact that he's standing outside the tee markers (although that IS legal)
- His clothes
- His suntan (lack of)
- The course maintenance (where are the damn lawnmowers?
- Or the fact that an alligator is about to bite him in the ass...

Anonymous said...

What exactly happenned? Everything going down.
Prashant

CV said...

The Euro looks very disinterested in keeping it's latest bounce going...

CV is sticking by his 1.29 by May call that I'd outlined last month...

Mannwich said...

"What happened"? Well, we've been up like 300 straight days (or it seems that way). Gotta go down one day, right? Feels a lot like last year's green shoots run. 10 days up, 1 down. Buy "dip". Repeat.

Mannwich said...

Greece concerns must be back. I thought that problem was "fixed"?

Anonymous said...

DXY is only thing green on my screen. All risk assests red. BTW C$D is almost par U$D. Inflation high in Canada. Rates to increase?

Even my beloved C is red.

Double Down Johnny said...

Owwwwwww! Another dip! I'd better double down

CV said...

@Amen

1160.48 was CLOSED UNDER on a 5 minute candle...

Curious, how tight do you like to play those types of fibo moves (candle duration)...

McFearless said...

I agree with Nic (Hi Nic) and Karen, currencies are showing big time risk off here.

USA Today is covering the Dow Theory buy signal, it's all over the news right now as week, Seeking Alpha has it too. How fitting would it be for everyone to jump all over that just in time for a Monday bath that nobody is expecting because Mondays are only up right?

Mannwich said...

Rents expected to decline in Seattle through '11. They're still declining here in the TC.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/rents-expected-to-decline-through-2011.html

karen said...

speaking of johnny.. just asking my friend why he didn't get back in on the break of 10K.. i'm wondering what it was two weeks ago or so that brot him back in..

in the meantime.. let's not get too excited about a little red on our screen or green in our portfolios unless some real breakdowns occur..

CV said...

@McF

The GDOW has NOT given a confirmation signal yet...

McFearless said...

" . . .employers [will] spend less money on health care, they will use the money saved to pay workers higher wages, or so the economic theory goes. The workers will then owe income tax on those higher wages, providing revenue to help pay for health reform."

OK, as a biz owner, I'm telling you without a doubt I would not do this, at all. Anyone stating this hasn't run a business a day in their life.

I-Man said...

Here is the "risk on" scenario I am preparing I-self for... we all know the "risk off" scenario.

IF 1154 on SPX is tested and holds, and FXE holds that 134 level, detailed, here:

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/02/fxe-weekly-and-daily-annotation-22010.html

Then I-Man will have to start looking at "risk on"... already said what I'd be looking at, namely, JJC, KOL, SLX, UPRO, QLD, maybe some energy, like IEO, OIH, USO, or XLE. DBA might fit in there also.

This type of risk on scenario would likely also entail FXY taking out that weekly trendline, that its teetering on again:

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/02/fxy-weekly-annotation-22410.html

And finally, UUP, getting the beatdown at 24,

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/02/uup-weekly-annotation-22210.html

Should those things come to pass, and they may very well do so, (for how much longer, is the key question) then it should be the juice to take us up into the 1200s and finally put the nail in the coffin for this rally.

If none of these things come to pass, then its about time, and we can get back to trading the D-Train.

So thats pretty much where I-Man is at right now... you know I want to fade this thing as much as the next bear, but if the tape is about to get juiced again, I'm not going to fight it.

The commodity sector really looks like it could go either way here, dictated, by the currency games.

CV said...

@karen

Just do your part and don't change your shoes for now...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I agree, I'm still thinking we can see a 12 handle on the S&P.

Other anecdotal, when I got in today I have 8 emails about "good stocks" from clients. 5 were described in the e-mails as good buys, right here at the new 52 week high. Retail is coming back people, it's picked up now several weeks in a row, haven't seen this since the rally started in March.

karen said...

A down Monday?! Do you want the earth to stop revolving or something!

Mannwich said...

@ben: Any money "saved" will go right to the bottom line and to executives' pockets, not in workers' pockets.

I-Man said...

You can call me Pollyanna...

karen said...

CV, yes, i was thinking to put my red dress on, too.. altho, this black seem so be working.. i can't describe the outfit (lack of) or LB would come undone.

CV said...

@I-Man

You "sketched it out" pretty well there (literally)...

When I get some time today, CV is going to drop by dread and put a few comments on those charts...

The only problem in "the pecking order" today are hoops, & the fact that it's in the 70's here and gorgeous...

More golf balls to hit...

Anonymous said...

@ Ben re Dow theory. Richard Russell said yesterday" Ok, today I got three important bull signals on the three counts I've been waiting for ..So what am I personally going to do about it? Honestly, nothing. Stocks are generally overvalued in this area.. market is priced to produce losses over the years...Particularly if you factor in inflation, commissions, dangerously low dividends and rising taxes.." Via Moneytalks.net March 18. Dennis Gartman quoting RR.

karen said...

ben, that icon??

I-Man said...

Ben, that icon is the shizz.

karen said...

Anon, prudent commentary if there ever was any! thanks for posting..

AmenRa said...

CV

The close is what matters.

Good read at FT: Accounting - Fooled Again

I-Man said...

@ C

Those are old ones, I'll probably anno up some new ones in between hoops and Jah garden... its supposed to be really nice out here this weekend.

CV said...

@ben (10:45)

Yeah, the way I have it handicapped at the moment is as follows...

- Most likely, dip only extends to 1145 or so, and recovers...
- IF, we get a mega dip (all the way back to 1076 or so), it happens VERY VIOLENTLY and recovers VERY VIOLENTLY... (It shouldn't last so long as to put the FEAR into these new RETAIL Johnnys you're talking about)... In fact, if it happens that way, then it's certain to give the "coast is clear" sign...

I'd actually PREFER the latter...

It's just hard for me to envision a scenario where we keep churning like we have for the past 6 weeks though... Some GIVEBACK seems like it has to occur...

I-Man said...

@ Ra

Erin might want to be seeking out countries without extradition treaties...

I and I remember that CC.

CV said...

@ben

Either that's a PHI symbol, or a Christmas Tree ornament... OR BOTH...

CV said...

@Amen

the 61.8% retracement from the dip this morning to the bounce peak is right on 1160.48...

We'll pretty much know right now what this market is going to do... Cause we're ON IT...

AmenRa said...

Oh we have a daily 3LB reversal right now (trading above 80.64) and a new high forming on the weekly 3LB. The DXY got within .02 of the weekly mid 2x and ran away. Plus the upper and lower trend lines meet next week (weekly chart).

CV said...

I'd say we can book a ticket for at least 1154 at the moment...

Nic said...

Big gold seller out there, 30 bags in the last 10mins

AmenRa said...

The SPX 5-min chart looks like someone left the gate open with the bears circling the fence. The bulls are nervous and hoping the bears don't notice that the gate is open.

karen said...

I-Man @ 10:44 great post! I want to say one thing about LEH.. I said at the time that the repercussions were unknowable and would be felt for years.. they still haven't untangled that knot.

McFearless said...

Anon,

Yes, saw the comments from him as I'm an RR/Dow Theory subscriber, he is doing nothing... but buying gold!

@Karen,

You don't know what the icon is?

@C,

There is a mini Phi in there, spiral, golden rectangle, and sure, a Christmas tree ornament as well!

@Manny....exactly. We pay our staff quite well, but in an environment like this if our costs go down we aren't going to just raise salary. Please.

karen said...

ben, can you quickly explain to me how commissions work on these stock fund annuities? i believe that's what my friend went out of a few months ago and then just got back in..

karen said...

ben, a christmas ornament.. okay, text from friend says no fees thru union bank..

DL said...

Cramer was on Kudlow’s show yesterday. Cramer argued that passage of the HC bill will be very detrimental to the stock market.

Video: http://tinyurl.com/ycaobc5

***************************************



I think he’s exaggerating the short term effect on the market.

CV said...

GO BUCKSTER!

McFearless said...

not that I really want to get into it but I looked at that AAII chart BR put up for a long time last night and concluded it's nonsense.

I commented in the thread there is a more telling chart to look at as follows:

NYSE free credit in cash accounts plus free credit in margin accounts minus debit balances in margin accounts.

It paints a very different picture.

CV said...

@Nic (11:08)

Hopefully it was Soros!

CV said...

Maybe he wants to move it over into Potash...

karen said...

ben, EXACTLY my opinion on that chart BR put up.. maybe you saw my comment on that yesterday.. does the chart you describe exist? i would like to see that.

karen said...

i want to see the dow back in the 9800s where we bounced from last time. and the spx, well, you can guess that one! my top.

Mannwich said...

TLT showing some spunk after being red all morning. Hhhmmm.....

Nic said...

India doesn't need anymore gold after the hike ;)

McFearless said...

Karen,

re: annuity.

I'm assuming he got a variable?

If so, think of it like a holding tank (no different than a 401k in that sense) with sub-accounts to choose from (various investment options, mutual funds that are full of bonds/stocks/blend), and then as an annuity it has insurance features as well, which you pay for.

Fees:

Typically you won't pay anything up front for putting money into one and then any gains are deferred (so if you sell your large cap x fund in the annuity for a 20% gain and move to another subaccount you aren't paying tax on that).

There are typically no fees to make changes within the annuity, trades are "free".

The fees internally however are high:

All of the mutual funds used in the annuity are going to have their own fees, and they are often very high, usually you can look at a Class B share to get a sense of what the fee would be on the same fund in the annuity. If you know which one (annuity) he has I can look it up for you via my workstation. He'll also pay something called an M&E fee due to the "insurance" feature of the annuity and then there could be a lot of other various fees like contract fees, or other riders (too many of these to summarize quickly) I think a lot of times you are looking at a 2% or so wrapper in there all together. The other issues are taxes upon distribution and surrender charges.

TAXES: (SEE CPA!)

While taxes are deferred, any growth in a Non-qualified (non-IRA/other tax qualified retirement plan) is taxed as ordinary income upon distribution and growth usually comes out first (LIFO rules). There are also 59 1/2 rules to deal with even if it's not an IRA Annuity. Most VA's also have a 3-10 or more year surrender charge as well meaning if you pull out of it during the surrender period you are going to pay and the fees can be big 7-8%, so you can't move your money in and out of the vehicle itself, if you want that, this is not the appropriate vehicle.

Hope that helps

CV said...

I don't think I have to put it to a committee vote to get a consensus vote that we'd like to see karens top...

So I'll just do my PELOSI imitation and assume the measure is passed...

McFearless said...

Karen,

the chart does exist, do you have an e-mail I can send it to?

Nic said...

No objection.

McFearless said...

"So I'll just do my PELOSI imitation and assume the measure is passed..."

We have to pass it to see what's in it....am I right?

McFearless said...

DL,

did you see the link Manny posted here the other day from ZH, seems Kramar and TS.com are being investigated by the SEC.

Leftback said...

Morning again... anyone notice the timing of LB's post at Macro Man today? LB was not aware that he could move markets quite so quickly..!!

C, LB scored in the 90s without making any putts at all, was striking it pretty well but chunked a bunch of chips. Practice... hit some balls solidly off the tee though, and very straight, Karen.

LB assents to the motion, but Karen might need the weekend to think it over before we see her top again... surely mini-PPT at some stage?

karen said...

Union Bank is owned by MTU! I'm sure his money is safe there! LOL.. omg, what a nightmare this financial system is..

Johnny Retail said...

Brian??? What's happening ???

McFearless said...

re the annuity post, annuities are not all bad, just need to know what you are doing before jumping into them, that post almost seems overly negative toward them.

call me ahab said...

wow-

that was a hard ride- -muddy, muddy, muddy- Potomac river is very high-

interesting- let's see if we close in the red today- yesterday on the S&P doesn't count-

hitting the shower then i'm out of here-

will check in in the PM

Leftback said...

The Bloomberg FOI suit might be an issue for traders?
Freedom of Information

You want the truth? You can't handle the truth....!!

karen said...

Ben, thanks for the info.. CV, can you send ben my email? I like to think it is just "us" here but who knows who lurks.. would love to see that chart.. or maybe CV wants to put it up for everyone..

CV said...

@ben

My (9:26) tells you what's in it...

CV said...

@k

OKEY DOKEY

Brian the Broker said...

Hi. You've reached Brian. I am not in the office, because I am on my yacht just off St Thomas. Bagholders...I mean, INVESTORS, are encouraged to double down on the dip today or speak with my soft-spoken and generally comforting assistant, TAWNY.

karen said...

Ben, on the annuity.. i asked him if his principal was at risk and he said it wasn't a CD but he had lifetime benefits..

Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...

Call me, Johnny.....

Leftback said...

Is SPX 1150 too obvious for a bounce in the last hour?

Anonymous said...

Seems like an important level just below....1150 is sort of critical on the cash S&P. My gut says we hold the 1150 today and bounce a little bit. -AT

CV said...

Tawney...

Stop railroading me Brian!

http://www.wallpapergate.com/data/media/2001/Tawney_Roberts_001.jpg

I-Man said...

AT in the heezy fo sheezy.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'll tell you more in the email. A lot of these 'income for life no matter what happens' annuities have become very popular due to the market the last 10 years, but that can be misleading.

C,

lol, I was talking about Karen's Top, hahaha! It was a bad joke.

McFearless said...

I gotta run for a few hours, see you all before the close.

Happy trades!

Leftback said...

AT - That's my feeling. There is no buying of T-bills, guys, so there isn't even a whiff of fear. Yet.... notice how hard the small caps are off today, we are going to see more of that. Ultra small caps and miners have a P/E of about 5000 !!!

karen said...

gld is maintaining its trend line down from December..

also just discovered something fascinating! Union Bank is the primary subsidiary of UnionBanCal Corp which is a wholly owned subsidiary of MTU.. they bot the remaining shares of UnionBanCal in November 2008.. in a cash tender offer..

karen said...

and in other news: (Dow Jones)--German prosecutors are investigating 1,100 customers of Credit Suisse Group (CS) on suspicion of tax evasion, Reuters reports.

The Duesseldorf state prosecutor is also investigating Credit Suisse staff on suspicion of aiding tax evasion, Reuters says.

CV said...

@LB

"notice how hard the small caps are off today, we are going to see more of that. Ultra small caps and miners have a P/E of about 5000"

---

So basically what you're saying is that the

MINE'rs

are about to become...

YOUR'rs

Short Crone said...

Ben, I'm jumping in on the annuity info for Karen. Living benefits implies that he has an annuity that has a guaranteed income benefit. The account value can drop, but the income benefit will not. In effect, though, a negative market will lock him into the product forever, because the internal costs (usually more than 3%) will eat into the account value faster and it will be difficult for him to recover principal. They are very complex tools, but can have a place in retirement planning as a replacement for fixed income or pension money.

CV said...

Looking at some 60 minute candles here...

This 1159 level seems pretty important on a basic TRENDLINE basis (going all the way back to 1044)...

Mannwich said...

STILL a painfully dull market.

karen said...

I have become fixated on KO.. if that goes.. well, GE would be a no hoper.

karen said...

Dow Jones)--Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Friday she is confident that the Federal Reserve won't cause any "seismic shifts" when it decides to boost interest rates, but banks should take steps now to deal with the reality that rates will eventually rise.

"It's not if, it's when," Bair said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires at a community banking conference in Florida.

"We've made every effort to make sure banks are aware of it and are planning for it," she added. "Once it happens, if you haven't prepared for it, there isn't much you can do."

Bair said interest-rate risk, unlike the risks posed by exotic mortgage products and securitization, is something the banking industry generally understands. Banks have a "deeper understanding of that risk," she said, and there are a number of proven business strategies that can help firms weather the storm.

Still, she said she worries about the sizable U.S. budget deficit and what effect that will increasingly have on rates.

"As Treasury has more and more demands to issue debt to fund the deficit, that may have an impact," she said. "That piece of it is beyond the control of the Fed and the banking regulators, and I know Congress is focused on the deficit but it is a very real issue."

Bair, whose agency has had to deal with a rising number of bank failures said the industry is still dealing with the poor underwriting and mistakes made leading up to the financial crisis. The FDIC expects bank failures to peak in the third quarter this year as a number of firms still are under significant stress.

"It's nothing like the savings and loan days," she said, referring to the S&L crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s when about 750 savings and loan institutions failed.

CV said...

aah the good old days...

When "failure" was measured in the millions, not trillions...

CV said...

Just to quantify that last statement for all you "non-math" whizzes out there...

A "trillion" dollar failure (in dollar terms) is A MILLION TIMES worse than a "million" dollar failure...

We're not just talking about changing an "M" to a "T" here with these politicians we've elected...

CV said...

WVU has scored only 3 points vs. Morgan State in the first 8 minutes of play...

I told you people Huggins was a choker...

I-Man said...

And they wonder why the youth dont respect the value of a dollar these days...

Ahh, its just another BILLION... bring it.

AmenRa said...

CV

Just say it's exponentially worse...

karen said...

someone pls look at ge, wmt, intc, csco,dd

the big 5 john murphy mentioned yesterday.. i just know the market is done cuz murphy said it's all good now. DOW THEORY UPTREND IS CONFIRMED.

anyone notice the airlines down today? $tran is putting in an engulfing.. this is the meanest market that has ever been!

karen said...

seriously, how can we have a bull market in a bear economy !!!

karen said...

oops, should have included this quote with the above post:

"Dow Theory holds that the Dow Transports and Industrials must both hit new highs to confirm an ongoing bull market. The ability of the Dow Industrials to exceed their January high has done just that. That doesn't tell us how far the bull market will run, or for how long. It just confirms that a bull market still exists. " JM, 18 Mar

CV said...

@karen (12:45)

The GDOW, though... FAILED to break out to new highs... FWIW

Helicopter Ben said...

how can we have a bull market in a bear economy !!!

LIQUIDITY baby!! Seen my helicopter ??

CV said...

GDOW

Mannwich said...

By the time, this gets to the Supreme Court, we'll have gone through another 2-3 bubbles......

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-must-disclose-bank-bailout-records-court-appeals-withholds-historic-mark-pittman-decisio

Leftback said...

2s10s at 269 bps, down from a peak around 292 bps... called that one.

Mannwich said...

Here comes that "sidelines" money? Almost time for Blanky and friends to pull the plus on this recovery.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/prior-week-money-markets-record-biggest-outflow-collapse-lehman-60-billion-or-22-assets

karen said...

$wlsh attempting a reversal.. just let it break 11900, then the trickle will become a flood.

karen said...

something else to chart: hyg:lqd

CV said...

@Manny

Here's CV's version of CASH ON THE SIDELINES...

http://blacksportsonline.com/home/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/chadochodollar.jpg

CV said...

or this...

http://www.fundalarm.com/alligator3.jpg

Mannwich said...

@cv: LOL!

Anonymous said...

Something for bulls - end of quarter and Census jobs. So 1150 may hold.

Mannwich said...

@Anon: Good point. Everything can be construed as being "bullish" now though. It's a bit amusing.

I-Man said...

I take it WV had a nice upside reversal?

karen said...

here is a shocker.. i am actually going to not watch this tape for... well, an hour at least! back in a bit..

Anonymous said...

EURUSD looks like an option thing, down then up to catch it. I think most movement is setting up for next week. On the 4 hour MA20 is looking to trend down through the MA 50. This is without a rally, which I kind of expect to end the week.

The four hour is THE chart. MA 20 above MA 50 above MA 100. Price well below all of those right now.

On the 8 hour the MA 50 is still above the MA 100, which is above the MA 50.

I want to say its going down more, but Europe disagreeing on anything in public is screwing with people. I saw it somewhere else that europe always agrees to agree. I expect the sell off after they put the ink to paper, after all of the agreement. IMHO

bob

CV said...

There is almost a perfect PRICE CHANNEL now being formed...

HIGH SIDE
From the 1169.48 high thru the GAP in todays 5 min. chart

LOW SIDE
From the LOWS of the past 3 days

If this continues to play out, I'd expect 1160.48 to be re-tested within 40 minutes or so...

If it fails that, we're probably heading for at least 1154.63 (or the bottom of the channel - whichever comes first)...

I-Man, you like this kind of stuff... Take a look at it and see if you agree...

5 min charts are best here...

CV said...

@bob

Thanks bob... Just say "Frau Merkel" (and listen for the sound of horses whinnying in the background)...

I-Man said...

C-
I'm only able to see 5min charts intraday at this station.

I think I have you on the 15min tho-

I-Man said...

Crap. Temple could really screw me up here.

Leftback said...

C: Forgot to tell you the best part of golf yesterday:

WALKING (and LB carries).

Encountered a lot of Nature... geese and ducks a-plenty. Luckily LB stayed away from the SNOWMAN and totally avoided the SHANKAPOTAMUS. Way too much of the CHUNKY MONKEY....

Anonymous said...

Watch out for geese. They are mean and territorial. My ball landed in the middle of a gaggle and I went after it. One of them had other plans and came charging out after me.

bob

Mannwich said...

Watch out for the black swan out there. LD killed one on the course in a Curb episode. Ha!

I-Man said...

I-Man has chased down his share of crippled birds enough to have been snipped at a few times...

I'd still ring a goose's neck in a hot minute.

Anonymous said...

Geese are mean and territorial. I had a ball land in the middle of a gaggle and one of them would not let me have it back. Came out after me when I went after the ball. This went on for about 10 minutes, my friends were rolling on the floor laughing. I was this close to showing it the power of a wedge.

bob

Tiger's Wood said...

Jesse James to reveal nasty texts from Tiger's Wood. Can't these people respect my privacy?

Leftback said...

Still no buying of T-bills...

Mannwich said...

@Tiger's: If you haven't done so already, watch the most recent South Park episode on Tiger and the other "sex addicts".

I-Man said...

Good eye, Left.

Every last major (and I sneer at the word major in this context) correction we've seen has been predicated by a negative print in bills, no?

Mannwich said...

Is this a bear trap then?

Nic said...

EURUSD got some real money bids at the London fix off 1.35 but would not be surprised to see lower today. From a technical perspective a drop below 135 or a close below 1.3560 and the fabled "rounding bottom" has lost it's significance.
The rounding top in USDCHF looks better but is less reliable because of the machinations and clumsiness of the SNB. I'm a seller of rallies EURUSD below 137.20

Nic said...

Tiger - South Park, Hysterical
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDCQHECmb6A

Mannwich said...

The Clinton and Roethlisberger characters are great.

Mannwich said...

I'm bored. Off to the gym.

karen said...

Thanks for reposting the southpark link! I have to watch it, still..

I-Man said...

I still have it DVR'd, awaiting Mrs I's return from the Bay area.

So dont give away all the good jokes! lol.

karen said...

Health Care Bill Odds

Nic said...

yeah viacom keep getting it taken down, watch it quick!

Mannwich said...

@I-Man: All I will say is it's one of their best works in a while.

Leftback said...

LB can foresee more prolonged discussions of the rounding bottom here...
karen you haven't changed your icon, or your shoes, for several hours...

karen said...

Isn't this the truth?! Bigger Banks, Riskier Banks

DL said...

I notice that Nic now has a "rounding top".

That makes two tops and a bottom to contend with.

I-Man said...

Might see some selling pressure at SPX 1161... could see a late opex selloff down to that 1154.

Lord Blankfiend said...

Yellow Card for DL. What do you think this is? A trading floor...???

Nic said...

I was just thinking how nice and civilised it was here. You're only doing this cos Karen's on a break.

Leftback said...

Days not to trade:

OPEX Day
FED Day
FED post-meeting statement tweaking day
Any other day when the government is f*cking with free markets

OK, taking yesterday off was good for my sanity. Shorting the long bond into Friday's close has been the usual move. May add some strong dollar trades to that this week.

Mannwich said...

@lb: Days not to trade:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

I-Man said...

We need as many ladies around here as we can get to balance out the testo-

Strong ones, that can stand up to rapid fire innuendo, coming from many directions, all at once.

Nic said...

I'm as big a fan of Karen's shoes as you guys.

I-Man said...

Well, Nic...

How did you come to stumble across this ragtag bunch? MacroMan?

bob said...

Cornell- SU coach Boeheim said they were the best team he played all year. He's not one for compliments. Still don't think they get past wisc.

Leftback said...

Manny,

When a man is tired of trading, he is tired of life....
There are only two things in life. Trading and COLD STEEL.

It was good to be swinging the steel yesterday, for a change. AT must know LB is flat this week, he hasn't made any COLD STEEL jokes this week. FED day was a 'mare for me this week ... although DXY carved out a rounded bottom. Which is good, obviously.

Need caffeine...

mcHAPPY said...

One of mcHAPPY's three pillars, Jim Rogers, was on BNN yesterday. Interesting stuff as mcHAPPY always loves what the man has to say.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip277915

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip277916

I-Man said...

Someone's been liking the 20K blocks of FXE this afternoon...

DL said...

"I'm as big a fan of Karen's shoes as you
guys".

****************************

I'm more into the feet aspect of it.

The Hot Girl from Bloomberg Asia said...

"One of mcHAPPY's three pillars."

Bragging again?

Nic said...

Yes, from macro-man. I subscribed to the AndyT blog because I am not an Elliotician (can't make it work for me) but I am always interested in how they see things.

Im a girl, shoes rule.

karen said...

well, DL, sorry i didn't have time to paint my toes last night.. the boys started a party without me last night and i just quick put on the party shoes to join them.. slept in them, obviously.. shall i go back to the black ones? or back to bare? thing is, we just don't know how it will effect the market..

72bat said...

@ karen -
DEFINITELY put on bear feet to affect the market

I-Man said...

Cool.

Looks like you're well versed on the FX. Just out of curiosity, do you trade CME futures, or have a background on the interbank market?

Just trying to keep all the different levels of currency trade in perspective- this FX stuff is all still very new to I-Man.

DL said...

K,

"thing is, we just don't know how it will affect the market"

True. You'll just have to experiment with that.

bob said...

Appreciate the FX take too. Been watching it for a while but not really trading it. Forgot the london fix changed with DST.

On the EURUSD the MA 20 on the 4 hour just crossed down through the MA 50, last time that happened was Jan 18. Down from here, IMHO.

Leftback said...

Has to be red, Karen, for the Bears... how many boys do you live with??? The mind boggles.

LB notes that credit hasn't really joined the party this last fortnight. Many HY issues at their widest in several weeks. Just one of the things we keep an eye on when we are not trading govies.

Leftback said...

Or watching Liverpool games in the corner of my screen...

bob said...

LB

What are your thoughts on the 10 year? MCF pointed it out yesterday. Is the bottom in?

Nic said...

CME futures for majors, inter-bank for exotics.
I actually prefer commodities but have to switch brokers to do more, which I am doing next week.
Unless you are an insomniac you might not like FX

I-Man said...

@ LB, Bob

Ever looked at IEI or PST?

Sorry if I've asked you that before, I've had these on my screen for awhile.

I-Man said...

Thx, Nic.

bob said...

IEI not a lot of volume, scared me. Big spreads.

Leftback said...

LB doesn't trade IEI but does own medium-term Ts and IG corporates. Also long term govies, against which we hedge with TBT.

LB likes the 30y more than the 10y for obscure reasons that have to do with auction size and availability of long term govt debt. Don't have a lot in the 5y-7y duration here. That was the 2007-2008 play !! If there is a flattener, or a crash in equities, then you get more from the long bond. This is the Gary Shilling thesis.

Remember that if the economy ends up flat with little inflation and little growth, then 4-6% is fine, and stocks are going to sell off. HY bonds also have priced in a very robust recovery and FED backstop for ever.

AmenRa said...

Almost forgot. Baidu sent over another gift basket to Google.

Leftback said...

BUCKY is going to take off one Monday morning... will it be next week?

LB is inclined to think not, but it only takes a disaster of modest proportions (and there are plenty out there in Europe) for the EUR to drop below important technical levels. Add in a China policy shift and the mood could change very quickly.

DL said...

I was hoping that the market would close near the high of the day so that I could short it (for a Monday cover). As matters currently stand, however, I have no opinion as to where the market goes on Monday.

Leftback said...

Opinions and a quarter don't even get you a cup of coffee...

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