March Madness Special Edition - 3.18.10 - Fuck the Markets for a day!

This is it my friends... No more joking around, it's time for March Madness... We all know that the markets ARE IN FACT a joke, so I decided to post something serious... The following are CV's picks for the teams that will make it through this weekend... The Four team logos that you see, along with the team write-up are my case for the teams winning both games this weekend and advancing to the Sweet 16... I've included the 'SEEDS' for each team so that rookies might understand which ones are 'chalk' picks, and which ones are UPSET SPECIALS... I'll make some more comments in the comment section... For this, the first year, I'm pleased to announce that we have 10 entries into the OFFICIAL "Survivor Capital" blog BRACKET Tournament... I'm ESPECIALLY pleased to announce that the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, Barack Obama, has graciously accepted an invitation to enter our blog sweepstakes... CV is somewhat taken aback because the selections of the POTUS are eerily, eerily, similar to that of his own... Nevertheless, this is a fair competition... To the winner will be granted the spoils... Before tipoff, here are CV's thoughts for the first weekend... Oh yeah, and I think some stocks, or something like that will be traded on these things they call EXCHANGES sometime today as well... Good luck with that s***... :-)

MIDWEST BRACKET

#1 Kansas (32-2) - Kansas is solid. Sherron Collins is the best experienced point guard in the NCAA Tournament. He was on Kansas' championship team and knows what it takes to win. Experience gets you far in this tournament. The Jayhawks are also tenacious on D. They allow just 63.6 points per game. They can win on the road. All in all, they fill most of the requisites of a national championship team. They should be able to cruise their way all the way into making an appearance in the FINAL FOUR, and might just win it all.
#2 Ohio State (27-7) - When 6-7 junior Evan Turner broke two bones in his back everyone said the Buckeyes were done. Turner, however, came back way ahead of schedule and has been playing at an extremely high level. He's capable of carrying Ohio State deep into the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State shoots well from beyond (37.9%). Four regulars hit better than 36 percent: Buford (36.5), Diebler (41.9), Lighty (38.5) and Simmons (37.7). The Buckeyes play excellent defense, limiting opponents to 60.4 points per game. This team is on fire; they finished the regular season on a 10-1 clip. It's tough that they got put in the bracket with Kansas. They'll most likely go to an 'Elite 8' matchup, but their lack of ability to average over 76 points of game might hurt them facing Kansas in that matchup.
#3 Georgetown (23-10) - Georgetown is a "formulaic" team that always features a big man (this version is sophomore Greg Monroe, 6-11, 247), whose presence opens up easy jumpers for junior Austin Freeman (17.3 ppg, 47.9% 3PT) and sophomore Jason Clark (10.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 42.2% 3PT). The Hoyas can win tough road games, however, none of Georgetown's starters are seniors & they lack bench strength. The Hoyas come into the Tournament on a roll (having gone deep into the Big East Tournament). It should get them through the first weekend here, but the road will get tougher after the Sweet 16.
#4 Maryland (23-8) - Gary Williams is an outstanding coach who hasn't lost a first-round NCAA Tournament game since 1997. In fact, look at Williams' results when he's had a team with 23-plus victories since 1999: Sweet 16, Second Round, Final Four, NCAA Champion, Second Round. The Terps won't likely be upset in the first round, and have the talent to get by a 2nd round matchup with Tom Izzo & Michigan State. Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is one of the top players in the country. Vasquez averages 19.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 6.3 apg. He also nails 38.2 percent of his threes. Maryland finished 8-3 on the road. Impressive away victories came against Florida State and Virginia Tech. Maryland, thus, fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4). This is a very good Maryland team, they have an excellent chance of making it to the Sweet 16 unless Vasquez goes totally cold.
WEST BRACKET
#1 Syracuse (28-4) - This Syracuse team has a lot to offer: They have five double-digit scorers. They have experience (four of those five players are upperclassmen). They can hit from long range, nailing threes at a 38-percent clip as a team. Wes Johnson (38.1%), Andy Rautins (39.4), Brandon Triche (39.7) and Mookie Jones (46.3) are all lethal from deep. They have a coach who knows how to win in March. They were 8-1 on the road this year, losing only at an emotional Louisville (playing its last game in historic 'Freedom Hall'). They won at Georgetown, Notre Dame and West Virginia. They fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).Syracuse should be able to make it to the Final Four.
#5 Butler (28-4) - Butler is the hottest team in the country; they've won 20 in a row, and the last time they lost was Dec. 22. The Bulldogs have four double-digit scorers: sophomore swingman Gordon Hayward (15.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg), sophomore guard Shelvin Mack (13.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.1 apg), junior forward Matt Howard (12.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and senior forward Willie Veasley (10.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg). The Bulldogs play terrific defense, limiting foes to just 60.0 ppg. The team had a taste of the NCAA Tournament last year, losing to LSU in the first round by four points. They'll probably get out of the opening round here, and with some luck, there's a chance they could shoot their way into the Sweet 16.
#6 Xavier (24-8) - Xavier shoots the ball very well, hitting 47 percent of its field goals and 37.7 percent of its threes. Four X-Men drill better than 36 percent of their threes: Crawford, Mark Lyons (36.2), Dante Jackson (39.7) and Brad Redford (42.7). Xavier's just 7-5 on the road, but the Musketeers lost at Butler by only one point. They lost at Wake Forest in double overtime. The Musketeers may rebound well, but they don't play good defense. They allow 68.3 points per game. What I like is a potential match-up vs. Pitt in the second round. Xavier is a perennial overachiever, while Pitt tends to choke.
#2 Kansas State (26-7) - Guard play wins in March, and Kansas State has two great ones. Jacob Pullen (18.9, 2.7 rpg, 3.6 apg, 38.0 3PT) is the team's leading scorer, while Denis Clemente (16.0, 3.9 apg) is a dynamic point guard. Both are experienced; Pullen is a junior and Clemente is a senior. Kansas State was an impressive 8-2 on the road, beating tough teams like Baylor and UNLV outside of Manhattan, KS. The Wildcatsare smallish, so it'll be tough for them to contend with the likes of Syracuse that have both a talented frontcourt and backcourt. Nevertheless, Kansas State is a dangerous team that ought to slide through to the second weekend.
EAST BRACKET
#1 Kentucky (32-2) - This is tough because usually freshman point guards don't win the NCAA unless they happen to be very special. John Wall qualifies. He is one of the top players in the country and might go #1 in the 2010 NBA Draft. I'd rather see some experience 'somewhere' on this team, but all their best players are underclassmen. Notwithstanding, their 7-2 road record is impressive for a young team. The Wildcats will probably be in the Final Four, and despite their youth, they'll be in the mix to win it all. I like Kansas and possibly Syracuse more than Kentucky, but Wall, Cousins, Patterson and Bledsoe are so good that they could easily come out on top.
#4 Wisconsin (23-8) - I like coaches who know how to advance their teams in the big dance. Bo Ryan qualifies with an NCAA Tournament record of 11-8, and he has lost in the first round only once. It's hard not to like a team that gives up only 56.1 points per game, turns the ball over only nine times per contest, and includes four double-digit scorers: senior guard Trevon Hughes (15.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.7 apg), junior forward Jon Leuer (14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg), senior guard Jason Bohannon (12.0 ppg) and sophomore guard Jordan Taylor (10.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg). Wisconsin has a tough draw however in that it is likely to encounter a tough Temple squad assuming it makes it past its opening match. That's actually a "toss up" match for me but I'll go with the Badgers here to reach the Sweet 16.
#6 Marquette (22-11) - Marquette can beat anyone. They're so dangerous from long distance; in fact, as a team, the Golden Eagles hit 40 percent of their threes. That's effin INSANE! They are paced by Darius Johnson-Odom (47.5%), Maurice Acker (46.7) and David Cubillan (37.3). They also have experience. Of Marquette's top six scorers, three are seniors. This includes forward Lazar Hayward (18.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and 5-8 point guard Maurice Acker (8.4 ppg, 3.7 apg). The Golden Eagles are also hot. Entering the Big East Tournament, they were 9-2 since the end of January. They got crushed in the Big East Tournament by Georgetown, but it seemed like GT was on a mission in that game and that Marquette was only treating it as a practice game after a certain point. It 'felt' to me like they were saving themselves for the dance. I'm taking a little risk here moving a #6 seed forward. If they go cold shooting, they could be out in the 2nd round. However, it's likely that they'll face a New Mexico team that no NCAA Tourney experience and thus I'll take a shot here.
#2 West Virginia (27-6) - West Virginia is a hot team. They marched through the Big East Tournament, knocking off Notre Dame and Georgetown. They also won at Villanova earlier this month. Da'Sean Butler is a great player who has proved repeatedly that he can hit big shots in the clutch. Butler is a 6-7 senior forward who averaged 17.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 3.3 apg. The main thing that bothers me is coach Bob Huggins' horrible NCAA Tournament track record. Since 1997, here's what happened: whenever Huggins took a 25-plus win team into the NCAA Tournament: 2nd Round, 2nd Round, 2nd Round, 2nd Round, Sweet 16, 2nd Round, 2nd Round, 2nd Round, Sweet 16. Three of the Mountaineers' top four scorers, including the point guard, are sophomores. Foul trouble could kill them (as they're not very deep). These "underachievers" I'll take to make it to the Sweet 16, but no further.
SOUTH BRACKET
#1 Duke (29-5) - Duke, if you ask me, is a #1 seed by process of attrition. It just seems like other potential #1 seeds just kept falling by the wayside. Nevertheless, the Blue Devils do sport, perhaps, the best trio in college basketball. Three players score at least 17 points per game: senior guard Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 5.2 apg), junior guard Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.0 apg) and junior forward Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg). They also can bury 3's (hitting 38.9 percent as a team). Amazingly, four players nail at least 38 percent of their long balls: Scheyer (39.9%), Smith (40.4), Singler (38.6) and freshman guard Andre Dawkins (38.8). I can't pinpoint it, but there's just weird stuff going on. Jon Scheyer is playing really well at point guard, but that's not his natural position. In March, it might hurt. No real impressive road wins this year to boast about (save for the win at Clemson). They could even struggle to make the Sweet 16 if the happen to face Cal in the 2nd round. In a strage way, I have a #12 & #13 seed reaching the Sweet 16 in this bracket, so Duke may make it to the Elite 8 by virtue of facing a softer test after this weekend. It's tough for me to see them reaching the Final Four though.
#13 Siena (27-6) - Siena has four players who average more than 13 points per game: senior forward Alex Franklin (16.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg), senior swingman Edwin Ubiles (15.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg), junior forward Ryan Rossiter (13.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg) and junior guard Clarence Jackson (13.6 ppg). Siena has a ton of experience. In last year's NCAA Tournament, they beat Ohio State in the first round and then gave Louisville all it could handle in Round 2. The Saints rebound very well and shoot a solid 45.9 percent from the field, but don't have a quality win all year. They're 0-3 against teams in the NCAA Tournament (losing to Temple, Georgia Tech and Butler). But Siena knows what it takes to win in March. I'm going to take them as a darkhorse "low seed" to move forward. It could be the "year of the Saints". This is a very solid team that no one should want to play.
#3 Baylor (25-7) - Baylor has a great balance of terrific guard play and size. The Bears are led by junior guard LaceDarius Dunn (19.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and senior point guard Tweety Carter (15.8 ppg, 6.3 apg). The interior presence comes from Ekpe Udoh (13.4, 9.8), a 6-10 junior. The Bears hit 3's to the tune of 39.1 percent as a whole. Dunn (42.4%) and Carter (39.0) are great from beyond the arc. The Bears are 7-4 on the road, and handled Texas easily. They also gave top seed Kansas all it could handle in Lawrence. This Bears squad has nothing that says "don't take me". I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears make it to the Final Four. They'll make it through first weekend without many problems.
#2 Villanova (24-7) - The Wildcats were one of my early season picks to go all the way this year. However, they have run into a rough patch as of late. Think of it this way. Save for Dante Cunningham, this is the same team that went to the Final Four last year, so you know that they're capable of making a deep run. The Wildcats are led by senior guard Scottie Reynolds (18.8 ppg, 3.4 apg), who has hit huge shots in the Big Dance before. The top four scorers are upperclassmen. Villanova is dangerous from outside, hitting 37.2 percent as a team. Four guys are better than 35 percent from deep: Reynolds (39.9%), Corey Fisher (38.9), Corey Stokes (35.5) and Taylor King (36.2). They're never OUT of a ballgame because they can score at will. Impressive road wins include West Virginia, Maryland, Marquette and Louisville. It's disturbing that Villanova limped its way to the finish line; entering the Big East Tournament, the Wildcats concluded the year with a 2-4 slump. Then, they lost the Big East opener to Marquette. I've said before though that I don't put too much stock into conference tournaments. A trip to the Elite Eight is likely in the cards for Villanova. We'll see who they meet there. Duke? If so, since I'm not that impressed with Duke, the Wildcats might be booking a ticket to the Final Four for the 2nd straight year.
The Bracket of the President of the United States

193 comments:

Mannwich said...

Great analysis, cv. Our sweet sixteen picks are very similar in the money pool that I'm in.

Let me know if you're interested in getting into that pool. It's open to all. Winner could get $1,000. Guy in MN runs an awesome pool. Have been it for 3-4 years now.

CV said...

@Manny

I'll go for it...

Time is running out tho...

What's the BUY IN (and how do I transact it)?

CV

CV said...

BTW...

To get the OTHER stuff started (random thoughts)

- I LIKE Obama's 'chance' pick of taking #13 Murray State over #4 Vanerbilt... That shows 'guts', and I'd thought of doing the same...

- The PREZ & I both have Butler getting thru to the Sweet 16...

- The PREZ & I differ when it comes to Xavier vs. Pitt... CV thinks Pitt 'chokes' & Xavier 'overachieves'... It's toght for me to say that because I have a niece who is a Junior at Pitt...

- The PREZ is out of his mind if he thinks Florida State is going to beat Gonzaga... Or maybe CV is out of his mind...

- I like the pick from The PREZ of Cornell over Temple... I'm not going that way (but I thought of it)... He could very well score on that upset special... Nice 'ballsy' choice...

- The PREZ is PROBABLY right (and thus, will probably beat ME, on his pick for TEXAS A&M beating UTAH STATE)... But that was MY 'ballsy' pick...

- Richmond vs. St. Mary's, we're on opposite sides... CV thinks it's going to be a GREAT GAME... What it displays is the fact that CV & the PREZ think ALOT the same way when it comes to college basketball...

NO DOUBT ABOUT IT... BARACK OBAMA KNOWS HIS NCAA BASKETBALL... HIS BRACKETS, LAST YEAR WERE ALSO VERY GOOD...

McFearless said...

C,

Great idea about putting BO's bracket on the Yahoo site as well. I hope to destroy him, but to his credit, he did pick my heels to win last year.

CV said...

@ben

You're right (2 threads)...

I'd forgotten that while I was working on it, I was working with TWO drafts (in case one got lost)...

HTML formatting is time consuming, so if you screw up, it's a bitch to re-do the whole thing...

Anyway, when I posted this, I'd forgotten to DELETE the draft copy (which has an automatic launch to it)...

I hope I didn't remove any rich comment section... It apparently launched overnight while I was sleeping...

Anyway, this is the thread...

Anonymous said...

Will probably be a slow day all around...

Spring breaks+March Madness= Disinterested trading

I like Butler for the Final Four.

-AT

CV said...

@AT

You, myself, and the Prez like Butler moving forward...

I think they get taken out by Syracuse in the Elite 8...

I gotta go out for an hour or two here, so I'll catch back up with you peeps later...

CV

call me ahab said...

Great post CV-

minor observation- must have been a little mix up because I don't see Michigan St or Purdue- it's alright we all have our moments-

Maryland maybe- but Siena????

as usual- Big 10- no respect

karen said...

good morning! no wonder i've been oversleeping it's still black at 6:30.. got coffee, didn't spill the beans and i may even have some green red positions.. fedx disappointed apparently..gotta dig into that one as they upped their forecast?

karen said...

what? CV posted? I didn't see a post, hahaha..

karen said...

indices are a bit manic this morning.. apparently this daily show clip is a must watch from BR..

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/tds-in-dodd-we-trust/

McFearless said...

Butler to the final four, a bold call, if it happens not many people are going to have it.

I'm not even sure I'll pull a chart up today....we are going to infinity anyway :)

I-Man said...

Ugh...

Shouldnt a had that last pint.

CV said...

@ahab

I did have Ohio State going all the way to the Elite 8...

That should suffice for the Big 10...

And I have Wisconsin getting through to the Sweet 16 (on a prayer)...

karen said...

Hey, i just envisioned a scenario where every ticker was red but the indices were still up!

CV said...

@karen

Typical day huh?

Green indices and red DHT :-)... Oh well!

@I-Man
CV is a bit hung over too...

CV said...

Around 1167 is a 61.8% retrace to yesterdays high...

Not that it really matters...

In a way, I'm bored, but in another way, I'm not... Sooner or later this tape will do something that is tradeable...

Sort of just feels like options pinning at this point, and the week is almost over...

CV said...

I think 1172 was a number we were talking about yesterday...

I-Man said...

My night was kind of interesting... drank too much and watched "District 9"...

CV said...

I love it how all of a sudden Greece might have to end up going to the IMF for a bailout...

Folks, this is EXACTLY how I scripted the whole thing since I wrote that Euro thread a few weekends ago...

Rhetoric and all...

karen said...

i fell asleep before i could drink too much, laughing..

no worries about this headline cuz it's all good!

February's leading economic indicators point toward sluggish U.S. recovery
03/18/2010 10:02:25 AM

Jon Stewart was hilarious... you all should see it if you haven't.

CV said...

CV says...

Bucky just stays down here for another day or so...

Over the weekend, the Greece "non-bailout" blows up & they go to the IMF...

IMF only offers ad-hoc support...

Then, everyone turns their attention to the NEXT one in line (probably Italy)...

But when everyone realizes that Germany ain't helping anyone, and the IMF is too puny to solve everyones problems... Euro tanks, dollar rises...

Sayonara S&P 1160's... Hello karens top...

I-Man said...

The IMF is such a joke. Really, just let the antichrist emerge to forge the new world currency and let the IMF go by the wayside.

I-Man said...

Sorry, I shoulda snarked that. Not trying to stir up any apocalyptic debates.

CV said...

The AC has already emerged...

It resides at 85 Broad, New York...

Assisted by the False Prophet at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

CV said...

snark

I-Man said...

I knew you would go there...

Ha ha ha.

karen said...

a lotta green short etfs.. but $vix down as always..

I-Man said...

Furreal doe,
The more I look at GLD the more I want to own some. Does that make me a kook?

karen said...

I, don't buy it! it's all one trade still.. it'll dump when the market does.. oh, nevermind.. MGUF.. forgot.

I-Man said...

Damn K! I dont wanna see the price tag on those... them look fancy.

karen said...

BTW, the "Fairytale" sandal is at BG's, second floor.. $1250, sighing. It's a cruel world.

CV said...

@karen

You know, we've liked you all along, but since you started putting up these "shoe" avatars, you've become a goddess!

I-Man said...

K-

The 55 day EMA for UUP is 23.37...

The 55 week EMA is 23.51.

It looks perilous, but maybe it will come through...

We never really backtested that 23 level, so maybe thats what needs to happen before the whole one trade thing gets going again.

That would pave the way for SPX 1180-90 I imagine.

McFearless said...

VixGDF for sure.

Can the Vix get to single digits, it's a race to see how complacent we can get.

I could never drop 1200 on shoes, I ruin shoes fast somehow.

karen said...

i'm happiest like this, however..

Mannwich said...

Sorry cv - had gone to bed. Email this guy if you want to get in. Hopefully there's still enough time ($25 per entry). He'll send you all the info or give me your email address and I'll forward it to you.

Bill Mathis

lakesareasubway@tds.net

Mannwich said...

And you can tell him I referred you as well. He has an online entry form. Here it is and then you can mail him a check to the address listed below (he's picky about getting all checks ASAP, for obvious reasons).

The rules:
• Cost is $25 per entry. You can submit as many entries as you would like.
• Entries can be mailed, faxed, e-mailed or submitted online (details forthcoming.)
• Mailed entries must be post marked no later than March 17.
• Faxed entries must be received no later than 10:30 a.m. central time March 18.
• Entry fee must be mailed and postmarked no later than March 20.
• Fill out basketball bracket including every game. The only game that will not count is the play in game that takes place on March 16 between Sisters of the Poor and Starving Brothers U. The winner of course then gets a crack at a #1 seed.
• First round games are worth 1 point. Second round games are worth 2 points. Each round the point value goes up 1 point until the championship game, which is worth 6 points. Updates of the pool standings will be sent via e-mail on a very regular basis.
• Entries must include the total score between the two teams in the championship game. This is used for tiebreaker purposes. If you do not submit a total, you will be assigned 1.
• The number of entries will determine payouts. Payouts will be posted upon receipt of all paid entries. For every 10 entries, I pay one spot. Example, 64 entries I pay 6 spots. Then I pay a bonus spot of $25 to the next person in the standings. You have no worse than a 1 in 9 chance of winning or at least getting your money back.
• Mailing address: Bill Mathis; PO Box 58; Nisswa, MN. 56468
• Faxed number: 218-562-5374. Make sure your name and e-mail address is on all entries. I do not need a cover letter unless you choose or are required to use one.

If you have any questions, please e-mail me at lakesareasubway@tds.net.

Disclosures
*The NCAA and the Final Four logo is property of the NCAA and are used for entertainment purposes only. The NCAA does not endorse this pool although behind closed doors they love it because more people watch the games. $15 to $20 will be withheld from entry fees to pay for the software upgrade to run the pool. A free entry will be allowed for the bracket manager, which is I, for the time and costs that are involved in this. If you have a problem with that, don’t enter the pool. I use close to $25 in ink and paper alone, not to mention the time I put into it. A final breakdown of all income and expenses as it relates to this pool will be supplied to all participants at the conclusion of the tournament, without having to request it.

If you wish to enter the pool via the web, here are the instructions.

Go to http://www.tourney-tracker.com/

Upon reaching the site, you will see on the right and the left, entry net. Click on that.

The next page click on "go to entry net."

Enter pool name: Tubby Time
Enter password: sleepy

Click on go update entries and proceed from there. If you want updates sent to you, you MUST supply a valid e-mail address.

Cut off time for using this feature is 10:30 a.m. central time March 18. If you wait until the last minute, the site might be jammed and you could be shut out.

How do I do more than one entry? You will see a blank area to input an entry number. If it's your second entry, enter 2. If you’ve cut down a tree to make your 20th bracket, you would enter 20.

Once you have submitted your entry or entries, you may change them as often as you’d like up until March 18th at 10:30 a.m. central.

Questions, let me know and if I can answer them I will, if I can’t I’ll ignore you. Just kidding, I think it’s self explanatory but there are some help topics on there if I can answer your question about entry net.

karen said...

uup chart shows positive divergence on my rsi and macd.. and, in fact, is still in an uptrend on my 13/34 ema chart.. the opposite can be said for the euro.. but gold has been the major beneficiary of that fiasco.. crude, too, i suppose.

karen said...

think i'll bake some croissants.. anyone want one? cheer up! today is the turn!!

I-Man said...

I'll take one...

McFearless said...

It's a little late for this now, should have said something earlier, but I am in a huge bracket in Philly, there are well over 2,000 people in it. $10 bucks to get in and they pay out up to the top 10.

Anyway, I'm an idiot and I'll link that up here next year in case anyone wants to get in, pretty high reward potential for $10.

Karen,

I'm in on the croissant

Mannwich said...

Me too. Just had some nice bakery banana bread with blueberries in it. Excellent heated up with a little butter on top.

Mannwich said...

Yeah, I should have shared my pool info a few days ago with everyone. Yellow card for Mannwich. This one is totally open to anyone who pays. The more the merrier, and the guy gives great timely updates after each set of games so you know the full standings and scenarios along the way.

karen said...

look at xlf..on the 60 min

CV said...

@ben

Looks like a confirmation is shaping up on DBA...

k- I'm in on the croissant (betty crocker in heels)

I-Man said...

DBA is looking irie.

McFearless said...

That's all I'm watching today, DBA.

And Manny, man, banana bread sounds really good. You are all making me hungry.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yeah, it was delicious. All this food talk is motiviating me to hit the grocery store soon. Lord knows I won't miss anything in the market if I leave for a few hours. Everything will probably look pretty much the same when I get back.

McFearless said...

fwiw, Andy said that he'd liked to have seen a "swifter" move to the downside on the pattern I'm trying to apply to DBA, so just keep an eye on it, I always get nervous that people are trading off my comments.

Dont risk what you can't lose!

I-Man said...

Dude... because of your comments I just took out a line of credit to throw into Apr OTM calls on DBA...

And bought a shitload of powerball tickets.

:)

Mannwich said...

And I just used my untapped, active HELOC to buy some DBA..... ;-)

McFearless said...

lol I,

That wasn't really for the regulars here, but I know some people lurk, or I think some probably do. You make a few decent calls and then someone jumps on just in time for you to get one really wrong.

Anonymous said...

ca.finance.yahoo.com/ Top story"Greek PM Papaandreous says austerity program not sustainable at current cost.." Does not want to pay higher interest rates.

My take "When was lunch free?". Oh forgot, if you are too big to fail, and rich anywhere in the world.

McFearless said...

Here, I have you both beat, I'm going down the street to get a payday loan at 45% interest and I'm putting it on DBA calls.

lol.

I-Man said...

Touche...

Forgot about the payday loans... I've already been 86'd by all the ones in my hood.

Mannwich said...

I got a bunch of credit cards with no balances I can use too. What could go wrong?

OK, I'm clearly going insane by virtue of boredom.

I-Man said...

Nice UUP.

karen said...

ooh!! nice uup.. i'm also looking at % gainers today.. VYFC up 43%.. GFLB up 27% .. BGP up 16%

CV said...

@ben (11:15)

LMAO! :-)

You are now qualified for either the Treasury Secretary of the United States, the Fed Chair, or the CEO of any Wall Street Investment house...

CV said...

@ben

...or the President of Greece

CV said...

@karen

Way to don the red ones...

THOSE are the "kicks" I wanna see around here!

karen said...

can't stockchart vyfc.. e*trade gives it a day range of 4.05-11.40.. same with the other regional bank.. gflb..

CV said...

@karen

Look, your DHT is really catching some fire!

CV said...

This 1160.48 level will be interesting to see because it's .008 from yesterdays high...

...and there's a tiny little gap there...

I-Man said...

K-
Looks like someone bought (or covered) 20,000 shares at 11:29 EST.

Then another 20,000 share trade at 11:38 EST.

Think someone might have fat fingered a ticker?
Cuz thats some fishy shit right there.

karen said...

xlf just closed yesterday's gap up.. on new low of day..

karen said...

i don't have enuf curse words to express myself.. we are right back to where we were on the open..

karen said...

another regional went goof ball today pcbc.. (and yesterday.) what is going on with these regional banks??!!

karen said...

a new NLY.. Parsing the Flow of Funds

"As a result, total credit market debt outstanding has only been falling very slowly, and appears to have just begun its descent. It’s always hard to spot a secular trend in its infancy, but this one is certainly a leading candidate."

McFearless said...

Ok, I said only DBA today but I am watching the dollar as well. lol.

and now, let the games begin!

CV said...

First tipoff for "The Dance" starting now...

McFearless said...

I agree, it was hard for me to see the secular global idiot bubble trend years ago, but it requires virtually zero effort to see and understand now.

Karen,

is that you running on the beach? California pics always look so nice, then I remember its California.

McFearless said...

Totally OT, Richard Russell put a pic of his daughter in the update last night. She's uh,... not ugly.

Anyway, she is looking for an analyst job.

CV said...

FWIW, here are some FIBO numbers to watch...

FIBO retrace levels (from 1169.48 yesterday)

.008 = 1160.48
.013 = 1154.63
.021 = 1145.27

All 3 levels are somewhat interesting because they'd look like H&S levels on the chart...

Also, I think 1145 is around the DAILY 3LB reversal...

I think what I'm saying, is if the market holds decent support, or bounces hard off those numbers, we may be eventually going to extend up to, say, 1172 or 1182...

If it crashes through those numbers and stays to the downside, the market will probably take a breather before it attempts anything higher...

CV said...

@ben

She can have a job here at Survivor Capital... But the pay SUCKS! :-)

Mannwich said...

Gotta believe we'll end down today (maybe?). Financials finally showing weakness.

CV said...

@ben

Is this she?

CV said...

@Manny

They're pinning Citi right on 4.00 cause that's the MAX PAIN...

karen said...

ben, wasn't running, just walking atop a giant tree trunk that was stuck in the sand on a beautiful, low tide, winter day a few months ago.. glad my friend and i got fotos because that tree (which had been there for several years) got dragged about 3 miles south on a big surf storm last month! i still visit it, tho!!

karen said...

anyone else crabby today?

CV said...

@karen

You ought to carve your initials in it for posterity in case it ever gets washed away...

Kind of like a message in a bottle...

CV said...

I was too hungover this morning to be crabby...

Mannwich said...

@karen: Me, "crabby"?? Noooooo way. I've only been "crabby" for 9 straight months now, well maybe not while on vacation. ;-)

I-Man said...

Manny, you f'ed up your tiebreaker score, hopefully its not too late to change that.

karen said...

KD has some interesting posts up..

82 Delinquent Banks

but the financial system is sound, don't worry..

Mannwich said...

@I-Man: I did? What did I put down? I did it kind of fast. Maybe CV will let me fix it?

Mannwich said...

'Nova down 5 but it's early. That would clobber a lot of brackets, including mine.

McFearless said...

@C,

That might be her, hard to tell, the pic from yesterday looks like she's younger (same age as me, 29) in any event, she's very attractive, RR seems very proud. He made a point of mentioning the foto was untouched.

@Karen,

do you run?, you've got some muscle there, and I only get crabby about the GIB.

McFearless said...

Manny,

I'd be shocked if Nova lost first round, but I didn't give them much credit going into this thing. C makes a lot of good points about them but the fact is they have played like shit lately, I like teams that are improving going into the dance, sort of like a momentum play.

Mannwich said...

Down 9 now. Upset special?

DL said...

Karen @ 10:30, 10:35, 10:36, etc.

Now I know you didn't just get the photos out of a shoe catalog (or some such).

CV said...

Madoff reportedly assaulted by another inmate

McFearless said...

I don't think they will lose either, but it is the big dance, you never know.

You all remember this?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/college/men/scoreboards/1999/03/11/recap.north_carolina.weber_state.html

I do, very well, it took years before I heard the end of that.

karen said...

DL, the "fairytale" heels @10:18 aren't mine.. those were from the BG catalog.. Ben, i don't run anymore.. GIB?

A commenter at Singer's site suggested keeping an eye on IYT.. seems hilarious to me in a way because it is quite obvious the market is going to continue up unless the dollar stages serious rally.. and that will only happen if balance sheets are forced/coerced to delever..

McFearless said...

Global Idiot Bubble

GIB

It's huge.

CV said...

@ben

It's... Global!

CV said...

I wonder if Space Aliens are "idiots" too?

karen said...

lol, thanks for clearing that up!

Underwater Second Liens

for fun i'm googling "extend and pretend" to see what i can find.

CV said...

Probably and ad for Extenze penis enlargement pills...

karen said...

52 Week Highs Implode! JK, JK, EXPLODE!

karen said...

Retail is not running with the herd today as evidenced by xrt.. likewise xlf.. but johnny joker will keep his eye on iyt, i guess.

McFearless said...

extend and pretend, I'd imagine, could produce some interesting search results. Probably some (lots?) that are not market related....

Have any of you ever looked at the Google Domestic Trends link?

McFearless said...

Yes, there were a lot more 52 week highs yesterday than we got on 1/11.

bullish.

painful as that is to say.

McFearless said...

Why was Scottie Reynolds on the bench first half?

karen said...

i'm only interested in market data, laughing.. and shoes.. if my window washers weren't here i'd be staging my next foto shoot!

I-Man said...

Just the first 4 minutes is what I read, "Teaching Lesson"...

I think Scottie has an attitude problem...

McFearless said...

For example:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:INVEST

And no wonder the VIX is so low.

DL said...

McFearless @ 2:08

Hey man, go with the flow.

(However, we're overdue for a 2-3% correction).

CV said...

@karen

My take would be to say that one can't use that as a 'bullish' indicator in the same way it was used in the past...

This past week was the first week after hitting the 666 low last year...

By June, the market was up over 40%... That 52 week high is going to be a harder nut to crack going forward...

The only way it does is if stocks go to all time highs... If that's the case, then while it may look cheery to some (as it did when their house price was inflated), it's REALLY a foreboding sign...

Why? Because it will have occurred ONLY because of the Fed being too loose with policy...

It's one thing when you can't sell your house so the debt just stays on a balance sheet (then gets 'hidden' from sight using accounting tricks)...

It's another thing when people can turn stocks into cash... The stampede will be thundering and there will be nothing to stop it...

The FED, OR the government, should NOT WANT to see stocks hitting new highs day in and day out...

It'll be more dangerous the higher this thing goes...

McFearless said...

And this one on jobs:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:JOBS

The Google Jobs Index tracks queries related to "jobs, city, job, resume, career, monster" and so forth. To see more details on the queries that make up this index, visit Google Insights for Search. You can compare the index with actual stocks, the Dow Jones, or Nasdaq by entering the respective tickers in the Compare box. Read the description for more information.
The index is set to 1.0 on January 1, 2004 and is calculated and displayed below as a 7-day moving average. The index is currently calculated only for US search traffic.

DL said...

CV @ 2:12

“It'll be more dangerous the higher this thing goes”.

I would say that is much more the case with crude oil than stocks.

McFearless said...

DL,
That's the idea, as mentioned the other day, I'm looking for long set ups, there are bullish things out there to make money on which is way easier than finding a short against the trend, but I'll wait till we pull back some before I do anything, we are overbought near term.

and, btw, i'm still a huge bear. and I also still believe in P3.

karen said...

hey, look at real estate and unemployment on that google index chart!

McFearless said...

I heard a couple client rumblings recently about gas prices. We got a spike here in DE when the VLO plant shut down.

I haven't heard that from anyone in at least a year and half. My business owner's say things are getting real slow again, Fed-Ex says they see recovery spreading.

McFearless said...

Karen,

Yes, those look bearish.

McFearless said...

Perhaps Toll hadn't seen that trend when they started to swallow up land....

CV said...

@DL (2:14)

That's exactly my point... The price of ASSETS will correlate to some degree...

If we get back to 1400 on the S&P, oil will 'easily' be over $100...

They don't want to see that...

The policy thus far has been an abject failure... We're still in the 'honeymoon' 'sweet spot' area...

Wait until the morphine wears off, then everyone will see...

You can make a patient 'feel better' with morphine... That doesn't mean he's getting any better, and may still die...

McFearless said...

"I would say that is much more the case with crude oil than stocks."

I think it's quite clear by now that all risk assets are moving in concert more or less, so the higher it goes the riskier it gets applies to them all imo.

CV said...

Florida closed an 8 point gap against BYU in the last 5 minutes...

It's tied 75-75 with 19 seconds to play...

McFearless said...

I'm flailing my arms Gator style.

I need a large foam finger

I-Man said...

I-Man cant believe he is actually pulling for the Gators...

bob said...

ND lost to OD

I-Man said...

I shoulda picked ODU... I called that one.
Oh well... no way they make it past Baylor.

karen said...

on that index chart.. furniture is interesting as well.. anyway, i think those charts are far more valid than the one BR posted on "stocks as a % of household financial assets."

CV said...

Here's your foam finger

I-Man said...

Man I wish I was at home, nursing this hangover with a big spliff and watching hoops!!!

CV said...

Pete Carroll/Seahawks give up a #1 pick for Charlie Whitehurst?

WTF?

CV said...

Nova better kick it into gear here...

I-Man said...

Yeah, that is one team that they dont want to give any extra confidence to... they can light up the 3.

CV said...

If NOVA loses, I'm 'toast' in my brackets...

McFearless said...

Karen,

did you look at luxury goods yet, same trend as most of the othrs but not as pronounced, can we explain that away based on wage gaps that just keep growing?

McFearless said...

St. Mary's is going to be interesting today too.

Even if Scottie Reynolds is a moron, is the 1st round of the dance the best time to teach a lesson?

Wondering out loud.

I-Man said...

Nova cuts it to 2...

McFearless said...

I had ND losing in most of mine, not sure if I did in C's. My wife got that one right too. If she wins I'll be pissed, she's viewed exactly 0 seconds of any basketball this season.

I-Man said...

FLA/BYU in double OT...

McFearless said...

wow double OT already. FL/BYU.

I-Man said...

Meanwhile... stocks run into the close... predictable.

I-Man said...

And DBA still catching bids...

CV said...

Nova tied up...

They are ICE COLD shooting only 32%

karen said...

luxury goods looks ill to me.. travel was confusing but it is spring break! or maybe people researching a move OUT of the US..

well, the Sandra Bullock news was nothing new under the sun..

bob said...

Nova does not look good. RM is really pumped up, the coach is an inch away from a T.

CV said...

I-Man

I'm actually liking what I'm seeing on the 5 minute charts...

This is starting to get the feeling like some GAPS are not being left behind from yesterdays high...

This could go down tomorrow or pretty soon...

McFearless said...

DBA looks nice.

If it goes to OT I bet Nova pulls away.

CV said...

30 second timeout with :25 to play...

Nova playing for last shot

CV said...

Reynolds is choking his ass off...

McFearless said...

looks like OT...

I don't get him (Reynolds) being on the bench to start the game, unless it was something so serious, in which case he wouldn't play at all, just yell at him and be done with it.

karen said...

fyi:

2:49 PM ET 3/18/10 | Briefing.com
With mixed markets at this point showing the INDU with relative strength & the SPX a laggard index, & 1 day left for Mar. equity options & index futures contracts, both NYSE & NASDAQ trading volume is pacing below yesterday's tally at this juncture. The lack of participation at this point could signal a complacent posture by larger participants heading into the quarterly expiration.
As of 2:30p.m. ET, nearly 549.5M shares have traded on NYSE vs. 597.5 yesterday, a nearly 8% decline of the pace, while over on NASDAQ, 1.41B shares have turned over vs. 1.55B yesterday, an almost 9% drop off.

CV said...

If NOVA loses, then the AD & 'boosters' of Nova are going to do their own TEACHING LESSON on Jay Wright...

CV said...

@karen (2:54)

Options Pinning 101:

Get 'em pinned... Go watch basketball...

DL said...

Ritholtz had this Jon Stewart video on his website yesterday…

about financial reform.

Worth a few laughs.


http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-march-17-2010/in-dodd-we-trust

karen said...

DL, i posted that first thing this morning..

I-Man said...

For all the other chumps stuck at work, not able to watch the games...

This is pretty rad:

http://www.ncaa.com/brackets/basketball/men/

I-Man said...

Of course the Gators lose the first time in my life I want them to win.

DL said...

k,
sorry, didn't see it.

karen said...

Seriously, $vix needs to get below 10, just like it did in 2007 because we are reliving 2007...

karen said...

Julia Roberts's new movie looks so stupid.. Eat, Pray, Love.. i am really crabby today.. sorry.

CV said...

Nova pulls it off... barely...

SPX is sort of coming to the end of a little wedge here, so some directional move ought to present itself soon...

CV said...

I'm going to handicap it to the downside...

I think 1154 is in the cards...

bob said...

EURUSD behaving very badly. Broke down through all MA's and now sitting just below the MA 20 on the daily.

karen said...

good catch, bob! a sight for sore eyes..

CV said...

@bob

If Greece ends up going the IMF route, then there is going to be a RACE to the IMF...

Everybody's 'debt problem' will suddenly surface all at once...

CV said...

Because if Germany says "no", then the only solution is the IMF...

And they aren't even big enough to handle Greece all by themselves, let alone the rest...

karen said...

tomorrow is quadruple witching no less..

karen said...

anyone see what fdx ended up doing today?

5 stocks responsible for dow surge: General Electric, DuPont, Cisco, Intel, and Wal Mart.

bob said...

Honestly it seems much more like an OPEX move on the EURUSD. No ideas to back that, but there will be some technical damage done.

Tyler said...

crabby today eh Karen. Well, perhaps the following will cheer you up ... I thought this was pretty cute

Mannwich said...

FDX yet another 52-week high. The bubble is back baby. I'm convinced more than ever that the human species is devolving, not evolving.

Mannwich said...

Speaking of which, if anyone hasn't watched South Park's Tiger episode, I highly recommend it. I couldn't stop laughing......

http://www.southparkstudios.com/

Tyler said...

Bob -- in response to your questions from the other day:

- I don't particularly follow SPY, so I can't comment with any authourity whatsoever, but it did strike me as being quite a distance off the mp indicator. Though, as you observed, it was for the q3 strikes and not this fri., though, still, the distance btw them was rather, umm, gappy (<-- that's a technical term you know!). Not sure if they offer a means to see the 19th data (unless you are a subscriber).

Tyler said...

thanks for the heads up manny, I hadn't realized the new season was starting up ... I look forward to watching ... I hope they grill him

CV said...

@Tyler (3:45)

Yeah, wasn't it like 105? Gappy to say the least...

Mannwich said...

It's HYSTERICAL. Those guys have the best job in the world - make fun of everything and everyone in our culture and get paid millions to do it. What could be better. Has to be therapeutic too to just laugh at this shit all the time.

karen said...

yes, Tyler, that was fun! i'm still smiling; thanks for the clip!

jeff, i should watch the southpark vid but i'm so sick of Tiger everything!

CV said...

SPY just ticked green, so if it holds, that'll be 15 straight...

bob said...

Yeah, it was in the 105 range. Good to know the technical term. lol

Thanks again for that link, still wandering around there.

Mannwich said...

@karen: It's not just about Tiger though. It's about CDC declaring sex addiction a "disease". All the recent sex scandal celebs are in it, including Clinton, Roethlesburger and others. It just about nails it.

bob said...

moved up to 106 today.

CV said...

and 21 out of 23...

Mannwich said...

Elin's Swedish accent in it is awesome.

DL said...

Mannwich @ 3:56

Is that "disease" covered by Pelosi's health care plan?

CV said...

CV's "health plan" right now is to go out and hit balls on the driving range for about 2 hours...

I'll check back in with you guys later :-)

Mannwich said...

@DL: Probably!

karen said...

karen's health plan is to take a sun shower! later, all!

(jeff, i'll give it a try.. thanks for the review!)

DL said...

CV @ 4:02

Sounds pretty therapeutic to me.

Mannwich said...

Hey - the S&P close DOWN today! It's up and up and up from here after this dip. ;-)

McFearless said...

Alright all, I'm heading home early to watch some games.

Everyone have a good day/night.

CV said...

@Jeff

Yeah, todays RED candle on SPY was just the 'correction' needed to re-invigorate the bulls :-)

Mannwich said...

@cv: Well, I'm sure buying that dip!

karen said...

sorry to post about this ad nauseam, but i continue to be fascinated by the positive spin they keep trying to put on the auction of these two spec homes:

http://5thworld.com/Paradigm/Postings/!Wisdom/OrangutanAndHound.html

and look at the 3 unpaid balances on these default auctions in Laguna Beach.. (every week there is a new list! there was a week in the end of feb with a tally of over $13 million..)

http://lagunahomes.freedomblogging.com/2010/03/18/these-laguna-beach-homes-are-off-to-auction-6/2053/

Mannwich said...

@karen: Weaknesss in the Bay Area too.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/dataquick-california-bay-area-sales.html

karen said...

here is something shocking as well.. FAZ did not make a new low today.

now, i really am going : )

bob said...

I am wondering about really high end CA property. If China is as bad as they say, there should be some smart money looking to buy there about now.

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