The tape makes sense to nobody right now (except, perhaps, the ALGOS, so I'm going to attempt to give you an "algo" view explanation of yesterdays tape on 5 minute charts).
There are some other things, I suppose, worth considering. This is OPEX week. As such, many stocks & ETFS are subject to "pining" (which means their prices can be, let's say, "guided" to levels that create the most favorable payouts to the "anointed ones" who get their free cash from 33 Liberty. You'll get the tax bill for that shortly, so don't feel left out. The MAX PAIN index is a chart that basically illustrates where the passerby, playing this 3 card monte, stands to lose the most (on either side of the trade), and the house wins.
One thing I've been talking about for a few weeks now was the fact that last September, I was watching as many "futures" bets were being place on a dollar recovery. Much of that action was bought for the December '09 and March '10 expiries. Classic "gaming" went on in December as the 23 strike was held back, then blown out on the very morning of opex Friday. It seems we have a little of that going on here as well. The dollar has been doing nothing but moving sideways for the better part of a month now. If you still believe in the "all one trade" theory. Well, then you can translate that back to understanding why Fonzie keeps jumping the shark. Probably what's in question here is the 24 strike on UUP... Watch that being held back so as to avoid any call payouts over that...
And meanwhile, watch for Fonzie to keep jumping that shark. If you get bored with the foto, I'l just start putting "Re-Run" up there to change things up a bit... (Bull & Bear version, just to be fair)
175 comments:
That's actually "Biggie Smalls" presenting the bear side of the argument, but what difference does it make? He's dead... Along with the bears...
"China says no exist papers filed - Marketwatch.com" - So may be Google is staying in China afterall.
@anon
Didn't I predict that a few weeks ago? I have to dig up the post...
I'd said something to the effect of, the VERY DAY that BIDU blows off to the upside, some announcement will shortly follow that Google is staying...
Cue the circus music...
BTW
As we speak (and if you refer this to the chart I have in the thread)...
423.6% of todays high, and Friday's high takes you to around 1114... PERFECT H&S SHAPE if it were to occur...
Just saying...
Also,
I see Citi getting called back up near the 4.00 level...
4.00 is MAX PAIN for Citi on this weeks opex...
They are already bring guest on the MSM to say that Lehman may face civil charges but not criminal charges. That didn't take long.
@Amen
Did you see Senator Kaufman's letter to the President yesterday? :-)
Personally, I don't think it's going to be as easy as... OK, we'll bring some "civil charges" over here & keep tossing bread to the Romans...
There are people around (Democratic Senators like Kaufman, even)... Who can and will keep this out in the open...
Geithner is complicit in this... And Geithner is Obama's Treasury secretary...
Some head has to roll somewhere. And you can bet it isn't going to be Obama's...
How dare you confuse Rerun from Good Times with the King of New York... The Black Frank White... Biggie Smalls... Notorious... BIG...?!
Biggie bring max pain on yo ass from the grave for less than that son.
But serious, on the real, thanks for starting my day with charts and some reminiscence of the BIG.
"Now honey's play me close like butter play toast, from the mississippi down to the east coast...
Condo's in Queens, indo for weeks, sold out seats to here Biggie Smalls speak...
I'm blowin up like you thought I would, call the crib same number, same hood, its all good."
"Aint shit changed, 'cept the number after the dot, on the Range."
BTW Amen -
I added a line to the text from the thread up top that I'd forgotten to type in this morning...
That is... While we're all having fun here with SPX...
The DOW has still not broken out to new highs...
Just saying...
@Adam
LOL :-)
On weekends many here do their "music compilations"... "The NOTORIOUS ONE" is definitely going on this "Week in RAP"...
Hey Amen - Maybe we could start doing your DAILY CANDLE WRAP a different way... We'll call it "YO AMEN'S DAILY CANDLE RAP"...
You can do your summary, "rap lyric" style!
Morning Team-
Dont know if yall caught the SPX 15min chart over at the other bar, but its jamming pretty nicely with CV's algo chart from yesterday.
Nice BIG shout out, although, I doubt he'd be cool with the Rerun comparison.
Joke algo.
Nice...
I realize that I don't like FOMC meetings during opex weeks...
...the last two opex weeks have been uneventful. Why do I have a feeling that this week is ride or die?
Ride or die, bitch.
Thats not directed at anyone per se, just like the ring of it.
CV
I read Senator Kaufmann's letter last night. I can guarantee Ron Paul is on board. This goes to the top and puts Geithner, Paulson, Fuld, Cox into the crosshairs.
@I-Man
Let it be clear that I'm not comparing BIGGIE to RE-RUN...
It's a metaphorical expression of the BULL-BEAR argument... It's be like comparing BULLS to BEARS...
They're there for "contrast"...
I saw your charts at DREAD... Looks like we're sort of on the same page here...
There IS a slight chance that we could get a swift market move down to around 1114 this week... But, that's more of a HOPE, than a PREDICTION...
It IS in the realm of possibility though...
Stopping points would be, 1138 and 1129...
Agreed, and I'm with you on the BIG, was just jokin on you.
We've kinda been on the same page since we met, so I'm not surprised...
Ride or die at 1154.
@I-Man
1154... Time to call on the assistance of Gandalf!
4.4 quake in SoCal about 45min ago...
Hope the Mistress wasnt too jostled.
Look for me at dawn on the third day...
Or something like that anyway.
morning! i overslept and spilled the beans.. worse, added to much water the the french press.. : (
i'm caught up with the above but taken down by the dollar..
@I-Man
4.4 ain't enough to spill your coffee beans...
And we all know the mistress is capable of spilling coffee beans AT WILL, without the assistance of a tremblor...
Perhaps, tho, it was enough to jostle her out of bed!... Naw, probably not!
@karen
LOL... double post...:-)
Yes, a 4.4 at 4:04AM local time! it woke me up and would not stop! the leaves of my ficus lyrata were waving! I completely forgot about it like a bad dream until I-Man mentioned it.. Felt like the LONGEST quake I've ever experienced.. remember those hotel beds you could put money into to make them rock?
@I-Man
If My "Fonz" & "Biggie" don't work here keeping this thing pinned down...
I'm going to have to roll out my "Ludacris"...
have to roll out-
I saw the Notorius B.I.G aka Biggy Smalls is a topic-
reminded of the movie "Hardball"- great movie-not just a story about youth league baseball- but a very good story about making choices- some good- some bad-
if you haven't seen it- rent it or buy it-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
all have a good day
Oh, this is why there hasnt been any Greek decision yet:
"“We would have to react if insolvency were imminent,” Schaeuble told German lawmakers in Berlin today. “It’s not happening and that’s why there are no political decisions.”"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRxQ3gKlxkMc
We're just waiting on insolvency, so grab a seat and some refreshments, it could take a few weeks...
@karen
Don't tell me you ever STAYED at one of those hotels?
Actually, anything that ever had one of those beds in it, I think, was a MOTEL... And I doubt you've stayed in many of those...
@I-Man
All I can think about when I keep hearing about this Greece bailout is that scene in Young Frankenstein...
With "Frau Merckle" playing the part of Cloris Leachman (Blucher)...
And a horse whinnying in the background...
This could be the moment to go short CLNE...
But I ain't touching that thing!
What some of you may not have caught here is the fact that although the S&P cash has gone higher...
The actual high print on the SPY (in the PREMARKET on Friday), was 116.16...
It's just getting back to that number now...
A motel, yes.. driving across country with my family as a kid singing "California here I come! Right back where I started from.." when my marine corps father was transferred..
I-Man say 1157 is a good stopping point for this "breakout"...
Probably telegraphs a selloff post Fed announcement if we are rallying ahead of it...
Watch that 116.16 level on SPY...
That was the PREMARKET high print on Friday...
I'm interested to see it it hovers there, bounces back, or busts through it...
Remember... Back in January was the same kinda deal... Sort of a "double top" (where it missed by .01 with a day candle in between)...
http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/03/intraday-spx-15min-chart-31610.html
Here's an updated SPX 15min chart.
this should be good for a new indu high: Woods to play in Masters next month.
@karen
He's only going for one of the Pimento Cheese Sandwiches they serve on the back 9 at Augusta National...
I'd get long one of those...
And thx for the comment, brah-
@Amen
What's your "candle take" on the BIDU follow up thus far...
Just curious...
@I-Man
Those things are GOOD!
I bet you ate a few of those at ASU...(you know - those times that you got your "hunger on")...
"Puhmentuh Cheese" as I-Dad would say.
@I-man
Update on that comment... It DID bust through 116.16, but only for a tick... It's still below, and that level is acting as a ceiling (or at least some kind of LEVEL)...
MM has a single post today.. Did LB get hit by a bus, does anyone know?
@I-man:
"I-Man say 1157 is a good stopping point for this "breakout"
Come on, 1158.....lol.
Tiger's return: bigger than the Super Bowl
11:37 AM ET 3/16/10 | NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Tiger Woods' return to golf -- at the Masters, no less -- will generate the biggest television ratings of the year. What about the Super Bowl? Forget about it.
The lucky companies that will be advertising their products during the Masters telecasts, which begin April 8, are also thrilled.
Yup it is time for me to start spreading my balls around agian. And I am not doing it for a cheese sandwich, I am doing it because I am so damn cool.
Now were are the women at?
@karen
I don't know... LB was missing yesterday, but I know sometimes he gets buried in projects...
Maybe LB is 'actually' David Beckham and he's laid up in a hospital with a torn achilles...
@TW
"Cheese Whiz" is a key ingredient of a pimento cheese sandwich...
cheese whiz also has other uses known to Tiger...
@ K
He's cool... just busy with work I think. (And nursing that Achilles tendon)
oh this will solve the problem:
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other top Obama administration officials Tuesday called the U.S. unemployment rate "unacceptable" and urged lawmakers to support the president's efforts to spur job creation and overhaul the financial regulatory system.
UPDATE: Geithner: Unemployment Likely To Remain Elevated-11:40 AM ET 3/16/10
C'mon dollar you piece of shit... pull it together already!
Dont wait for those heathens at the Fed...
@ karen -
motel 6 "magic fingers" 25 cents for 10 minutes
oh the stories that could be told
@karen (11:45)
I hope wagged a finger at them with a look of consternation on his face...
You know... for effect... (not to mention "photo op")...
CV
BIDU still holding strong even though down a little today. You need a lower close to confirm the shooting star but today looks like it may be bearish thrusting which is a continuation of the trend.
Good (late) morning all - back in the saddle here in Minny! Was 60 yesterday and the snow is gone. Fantastic. An early spring perhaps? Just in time for the summer market malaise. It seems to have started early this year as well.
@karen: Bad behavior is celebrated as the norm in this country now. Of course the ratings on Tiger's return will be through the roof. We like celebrating idiocy and ignorance in this country.
@Amen
Thanks... I'm wondering when I can cue the BAD COMPANY lyrics on BIDU...
@Manny
The 'Mannwich Indicator' is broken... It needs to be put in the shop for repairs... Either that, or for your next trip you'd better don your astronaut uniform...
@cv: Yet ANOTHER thing that's "broken" with regards to the "the market". Add it to the list. Fantastic skiing in a half-empty Steamboat this past weekend though! Mannwich made some serious strides on the hill. The problem is, I'd rather not get hooked on such an expensive activity. That will be a conundrum for me.
What did everyone run off to some blog I dont know about yet?
i'm tongue tied
That's what I was thinking, I-Man. Very quiet. Did Mannwich scare everyone off?
Or is everyone asleep or dying from sheer boredom?
@karen
Don't lie! You're actually on your way to a motel to jump into one of those shaking beds...
@Manny
While you're BORED... Everyone... While you're bored...
Go sign up for the NCAA FANTASY BASKETBALL BRACKETS Tournament I have set up...
The login & password are on the THREAD from last Saturday...
CV isn't talking much right now because, well, the markets are dull...
and...
I'm working on a THREAD POST to launch tomorrow night...
It will DETAIL the NCAA Tournament and my predictions to go to the Final Four & where to look for 'upsets' in the process...
Might be the only INTERESTING thinh I publish all week...
Also...
I think LB might have started his St. Patricks Day celebration a day early...
@cv: Can you repost that info or email it to me to mannwich08@gmail.com?
a short KD
@Jeff
Just click over at the BLOG ARCHIVE to the right column of this page...
You'll find it in the WEEKEND EDITION of 3/7 - 3/14
I'm still here, just busy at work today/yesterday, end of week will be slow, but I still might not have anything to talk about by then!
@McF
Hoops, baby... Hoops!
OK cv. I haven't followed college hoops as much this year as I normally do, but I'll give it a shot.
When do you remember the SPY ever having been up 13 days in a row?
Answer? NEVER
The previous record was 11...
SPY: A Perfect March
Is that right, cv? But this market is totally normal....
Oh yeah, thats a healthy looking sign...
I just love how all the big financials now go up day after day after day. Are we headed for an "economy" that's even MORE focused on Wall Street's "earnings" and financial shenanigans. Heckuva job, Obama. What a total cop out he's been.
@karen
I love the last sentence in that link...
"It was carried on almost uninterrupted through 1997"
---
Yeah - when it WAS interrupted, eventually, 11 years later it retraced the same levels...
Obama + Geithner = Lay + Schilling
@cv: Somewhere in his Northern MN prison cell, Skilling is stewing, wishing he were a banker. He'd not only not be in jail, but he'd probably be Treasury Secretary.
Shit... Skilling invented the Repo 105
@I-Man: Precisely.
Well, we seem to be dipping right ahead of the announcement, we all know the initial move is typically wrong....do we spike up and then closer lower on the day?
Probably not, but a bear can dream.
no speculation on post-FOMC announcement action?
that "extended" will not be taken out of the boilerplate language is already baked in at this level?
or continuing the free money will cause a melt-up from here?
bucky still holding out above karen's 23.40 line in the sand.
Actually, it's hard to really "implicate" Obama here other than stupidity...
But look, maybe you didn't PLAN to rob the bank... But if, say, you're a taxi driver, and a bunch of guys in masks and with machine guns hop in your cab and tell you there's an extra $100 in it for you if you drive them over to 33 Liberty... Then tell you wait outside and keep the meter running while they "do business" inside...
I mean, how dumb do you have to be to not just drive away?
What do you tell your wife at the end of the day?
What do you tell your kids?
"Honey look"! I just made an extra hundred bucks today... I'm taking you and the girls out to Red Lobster!
Well, here is a story that some might find some pleasure in:
I got fired by someone today as in their words "I'm not bullish enough to take advantage of all the opportunities"
$70k account.
I was wondering how long it would take for this to happen. They were +6% in 2008 btw.
@McF
Knee jerk is UP...
So let's see if the opposite occurs...
@McF
Good Luck to that person... I hope they have good "timing"...
I've never been so eager to see a reversal take shape as I am right now...
And I'm not even trading!
@cv: I don't think it's stupidity necessarily. These Ivy-Leaguers all tend to believe they are geniuses so the level of group-think (and back-patting) among them is astounding.
@ben: Wow. Well, that was bound to happen, wasn't it? Let's see what happens after he gets hammered in the market by listening to a perma-bull advisor. A little late to be diving in head-first as a bull now, no?
@Manny
Ivy Leaguers (believing they're geniuses) = by definition... STUPIDITY
The joys of peer pressure....
@cv: Fair point. I would add in "delusion" as well.
@ben
will you likely run into this former client after he gets hammered?
what do you imagine the conversation would be then?
Is there enough meat on the bone yet?
Takes 30-45 minutes for the dust to settle...
C,
Just part of the deal, I got an ACAT for 275k this morning, so we'll net it out to 205k for the day. Hopefully they don't blow up with whatever they are going to do. They were nice enough to call at least, can't knock that, I've been wondering why someone else hasn't bounced, stocks have been treding up for a year and 2008 is a distant memory, as is 1k S&P, plus, as I was told this morning by a client "Cramer is buying..."
On another note, we ticked over 1158 so I guess my top is busted now.
McF
How much of that 70k was saved during the downturn? If they stayed with a permabull they would have 7k and not 70k.
McF
I take it he doesn't know the Cramer Contrarian Rule: Give it 3 days and do the opposite.
Just fucking with people now. They could do this all day!
I am going to take all your clients one by one, McF. You can have them back when they lose all their money in the P3, obviously.
Just imagine how light the volume would be if there werent any shortsellers to come in and get gamed.
Maybe if they all walked away and refused to trade for a week we might get somewhere.
@72/Manny,
Yes this was expected, not them in particular, just someone since I'm so cautious right now. These people weren't short so it's not as if they are losing money, but they aren't up with the market since the March lows they explained to me..., and that BND position just wasn't cutting it for them here in 2010 I guess.
As for will they come back, doubtful, most people are too proud to ever do something like that if this ends up going against them, because they will actually need to speak with me rather just transfering the money in like you might do with a fund manager. If they do though come back though, I'll work with them again. That only needs to be awkward if they make it so, personally I don't expect retail investors to do anything but what these people just did, it's all part of the social mood.
@Ra,
All of it was saved, they lost nothing with me in 08'. They were scared stiff last March, I actually suggested a few stocks to buy last spring and they said they were happy with the conservative approach, I looked it up today in my client notes. But, that was a long time ago now, and their parents advisor is bullish, etc, etc.
the cramer thing did catch me somewhat by surprise,.... people still watch that guy? How? Why? oh yes, GIB... I mean, it was well documented the stuff he was pushing in 2008. I don't get it, but hey, he yells and throws stuff so it's a lot more entertaining than my stuffy deflationist ass.
Good old-fashioned greed, ben. It's back. Actually, it never left.
Do you all have 1158.24 as the high print so far?
Happy Daze.
I have 1158.47... for about a millisecond.
LB-
Interested in your take on the LQD charts I posted last night whenever you have some time.
Trying to add a fundamental hue to the technical picture.
Anyone want to throw out an opinion on the triangle set ups Dan was talking about last night?
I didn't love the chart because his green 1 didn't look impulsive at all to me but based on what just played I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts on that.
I have 1158.47 for the high
S&P sure is acting "odd" given that it's setting fresh highs for the move. You would think that they would be ripping stops higher. Maybe we're finally running out of buyers?? Perish the thought....
-AT
yes, my screens show 1158.47 now as well. It doesn't really matter, lol. Well, my number may be Red now on the predictions but hell, if that is it I'm claiming a top call, lol.
You know what's sad is that that 1158 target could have been identified last summer, where A=C for the wave pattern, if I would have just stuck to that I'd have avoided some pain here this year being short at an incorrect time.
Big Picture.....
@I-Man
I'd be really surprised if there were many NEW SHORTS after that 13:1 day last Friday...
IOW - these are "vapor points"... When it sells off, I think it's likely to go back and cover all the ground back to near 1020...
Then we'll see if this is ANOTHER LEG UP, or if it was all a fancy exercise ahead of opex...
I'm back to doing my NCAA Bracket post (for tomorrow)...
That's how EXCITED I am about todays action...
Props to the group for nobody going off about what the statment says...because it doesn't matter anyway.
@C,
before I forget, how cool is it that you put Biggie in the post today. Maybe the best rapper ever right there.
@Manny,
It is greed, and it's also what Richard Russell says, which is that those people want me to help them try to cheat time. They are older and undersaved, and I'm not helping them catch up by getting 20% RoR each year. This is also greed in a sense, just a different way to look at it.
Sorry, no free lunch.....
Oh btw, what happened to you going out of town and the market going down? Lol, I almost thought that was a lock.
The statement says:
"The Committee agrees that we are all SCREWED because of the quantity of debt that has accumulated, but we have to act like everything is under control. So the game of EXTEND and PRETEND continues until something blows up massively in our face. In the mean time, the markets will continue to be a massive game of CHICKEN. Now let's all get together and CLUCK like CHICKENS."
Whats your intuition here Ra?
I dont like it... not one bit. The case has been made for a successful backtest of the breakout, and a little capital deployment here will attract a whole new crop of momo's.
This might be the playbook to watch for a bit:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gold-scents-assets-spx-bulls-trading/3/12/2010/id/27263
Its going to take some massive liq into the close to topple the boat now.
I-Man
Unfortunately a close above 1153.47 puts 1172.08 as the next test price. But opex week hasn't been too kind to the bulls recently. Bears either for that matter.
Got my NCAA entry in, cv. Didn't put a lot of thought into it, which means like some of my few recent winning long trades, I'll probably knock it out of the park.
Of course, those few winning long trades in some crap stocks don't even begin to come close to offsetting last year's carnage for me. I'm still in the game biding my time though. Just gotta be patient!
@ben: cv and I discussed that back in this thread. Just another thing about "the market" that's now "broken". ;-)
Hey - my TLT looking mighty stout lately though! Gotta cheer small (or any) victories, right?
I know we can't read too much into this but XOM has not gotten the invitation to the party recently.
Still not sure what to make of the S&P here but the DOW should tell us more when it gets back to the 10,725 area. A close above that would also be a bullish Dow Theory signal.
I can read the writing on the wall. I'll probably advise my friends to bail on their SPXU.
Should have seen it coming sooner.
I-Man is tired. Too tired for this shit.
McF
I've been practicing roping calves. So has GS...
Does anyone know what the A/D ratio is right now?
NYSE 2066 a 945 d 127 unch
bob
Well, despite being wrong about this wave count, how fascinating it still is that we hit the A=C point on the S&P on day 610 from 10/07 highs, and day 377 from the March 09er lows.
Leonardo of Pisa Strikes Again!
Random Walk my Ass.
CV @ 3:26
Not exactly what you're looking for, but the following will give you the percent of NYSE stocks above the 20-day MA, and the 50 day MA:
http://www.indexindicators.com/
McF,
_You_ should be firing all 70k clients.
Anyone - comments on bond/risk-asset divergence today?
Anyone (else) here follow PnF?
friz
I know we still have a weekly close to get through, but I'm already looking at UPRO, SLX, and KOL.
It's amazing to watch how many divergences are happening all the way up into the 60 minute charts, and the thing just keeps going...
Can we make it 14 in a row tomorrow on the S&P, but the Fed isn't blow any bubbles. Sure, they aren't. What a farce.
this will tank the dollar and spike gold:
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation Tuesday to force the Obama administration to take reciprocal action against China for keeping its currency artificially low.
China's "cheating" actions are part of the cause of the global economic recession and are hampering the U.S. economic recovery, the lawmakers said.
The bill was introduced by Sens. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.), Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.), Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio), Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and Sam Brownback (R., Kan.). In total, there are 15 cosponsors for the bill.
"I believe the Chinese don't believe in free trade, I believe they are mercantilists," Schumer said.
The legislation would require the Treasury and the Commerce Department to implement several reactive measures against any country seen to be using its foreign-exchange policy as a countervailing subsidy, but it is primarily aimed at China.
The Obama administration--and the Bush administration before it--has failed to take steps to address China's actions, the lawmakers said.
Friz-
Isnt the PnF all the way up in the 13's or something?
I'm looking at 1180-90 as the next real trendline resistance on the monthly if the tape can hold 1150.
With the VIX @ 17.5, I'd say we're skating on thin ice. O.K. to be long only if you're a "day trader", or using tight stops.
Karen @ 3:42
I think that a lot of these guys like to publicly bash the Chinese, but at the same time, they're grateful that the Chinese are buying our debt.
In the very unlikely event that China were to disgorge their Treasury holdings, Obama would be in deep sh*t politically.
@karen: They have to find someone to blame (in lieu of themselves). Let the economic trade war begin!
I swear this is contradictory!
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude oil prices rose over 2% Tuesday as investors' appetite for risk returned on an improved outlook for the economy, with the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged.
If Oil even goes near 100 again, it's game over for the recoverlyess recovery. There's no way that our fragile, "recovering" economy can take that shock. My gas prices here in Minny went up over .10 last week alone.
Friz,
I plan on dropping a lot of clients this year....I'll leave it at that.
I-man, yes, one measure of price target puts it in 1300s, another in the 12s. Demand is firmly in control, similar to Lowry's. But, reversals in PnF occasionally happen without any setup. Even Lowry's admits to 3 times a reversal has happened concurrent with, not after, a change in A/D line.
As McF said, a bear can dream.
friz
Mannwich,
There's a chance it could happen by August of this year. And I'll be shocked if it doesn't happen by August of next year.
I hope those tools dont' make the mistake of awakening a sleeping giant in China. Just saying.
I read all the stuff about Iran last night and it didn't scare me...China does.
McFearless,
China and Iran are not entirely disconnected.
If we piss off China, Iran will benefit.
I agree, DL, and I think that's the shock that will hammer us back into a recession. And any geo-political skirmish in the Middle East may even send us higher than that.
McFearless @ 3:51
The only thing that scares me about Iran is that if they get nukes, they'll given them to Hamas or hesbollah, and who the hell knows what they would do with them then.
DL,
I don't disagree about that, but as a stand-alone Iran is shit other than that would be just as awful a place to fight as Afghanistan.
china as a stand-alone is a far bigger issue in my mind, but perhaps I just created that and it's not reality based.
Mannwich,
There's also the question of whether Obama will remove the troops from Iraq by September. If so, Iran will begin testing Obama. That could be bullish for oil
@ Manny
Beginning to think that oil DOES have to go over 100 just to spite the Fed.
@DL: To be honest, I think that war with Iran is inevitable, probably before '12.
McFearless,
I would agree that Iran without nukes is nothing more than a "paper tiger". China, OTOH, can do a lot of damage in many different ways.
@I-Man: Agreed, although my hurting DTO makes me wish it wasn't so.
Mannwich @ 3:59
Obama will resist it with every bone in his body.
DL,
Seems to be they'd lob them into Israel right?
I don't believe they have the capability, and forgive me for being skeptical of reading the Isralies view on how soon they will have the capability. After all, Benny is back running the show over there (Israel), this guy has a history.
Really they should just hire the Zohan and be done with it.
I dunno, DL. I think that Obama and friends will need a nice diversion before the '12 election to rally the troops. Gotta blame others for our predicament. China will be one of them, but we'll just do a trade war with them. Iran will be the physical war.
McFearless @ 4:01
As I said above, I think they'll do it through Hamas, or not at all.
@McF
If nothing else... A BILLION POPULATION should make you stop and think...
@Amen
Go ahead and put a wrap on this stinky fish...(5:30)
Mannwich @ 4:04
If EITHER ONE of those predictions come true, we may just get that P3 that so many are calling for.
@DL: I think some sort of skirmish is bound to happen in this environment over the next few years, don't you? This doesn't feel stable (or like a real "recovery") at all to me. Feels like we're waiting for another shoe (or shoes) to drop and that it's inevitable. The question is what? And when?
Mannwich @ 4:08
My bet is that the next bear market is more likely to be caused by the Fed than by China or Iran.
Read this
For a bunch of "contrarian thinkers" you really are sucking down everything the MSM wants you to. Left wing media? Please. This doesn't remind you of anything?
@Anon: Who's "sucking" anything down? Why the anon handle?
believe iran has population equal to iraq and afghanistan combined with greater resources and therefore able to field much larger conventional as well as guerilla forces. would the u.s. military even have the capacity after a decade of war to field a new ground war in a 3rd theater?
aside from the domestic support here, or the lack thereof for it... no military expert here, just wonderin'
or is it an air war only, against nuclear facilities, and continued/increased sanctions?
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