AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bearish harami cross day (confirmation would be sweet). Held above fibo extension 1153.47 and next price target is 1172.08. No daily 3LB changes. Buy the dip! Buy the dip! (snark off)



DXY
Bullish long day. Tested 10 SMA and passed. Tested 21 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bearish short day. Closed below the fibo ext of 61.8% (which may be the launching point). Midpoint still below 10 SMA. New low for daily 3LB with reversal now 22.27. Also it's now trending down on the daily 3LB.



GOLD
Spinning top day that confirmed the bearish thrusting from yesterday. Closed above 89 SMA but held the 10 & 21 SMA's. No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint is now below 10 SMA. Tested daily 3LB reversal and passed. Is it me or does this look like an evening star pattern? No daily 3LB changes.



SUGAR #11
Bullish long day. Decided to avoid the monthly 3LB reversal by trading back above 18.61. Confirmed the bullish harami cross from yesterday. No daily 3LB changes.



BIDU
Doji day. Traded into the gap but closed above it. Is it the bulls or bears who are indecisive here? Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.

62 comments:

McFearless said...

AAII sentiment:

March 18: 35.37% bulls 34.76% neutral 29.88% bears

which shows that bears have jumped roughly 5% since last week. Little hard to get super bearish on that.

McFearless said...

and bulls DROPPED by 10% roughly.

McFearless said...

St. Mary's brought the Thunder!

McFearless said...

Onuaku is out for Cuse.....this could spell serious trouble for them if he can't get back and they make it to the later rounds.

CV said...

@Amen

It's you AND it looks like an evening star pattern... EURUSD

@McF
He'll be back... In time for when it's important...

CV said...

@ben

The "thunder from DOWN UNDER" (St Marys)

bob said...

On EURUSD- I still think opex is more of the story in the short term. Waiting until noon before I stop sitting on my hands.

SU- AO is going to be fine, I think. Jackson can step in, and after that the irishman, riley.

St. Mary's- did not see that one.

All in all, good first day. Happens every year around here, great weather competing with great basketball. G'town tonight.

McFearless said...

A Great Socionomic Indicator:

Michael Jordan becomes Bobcats owner. First former player to ever do so.

McFearless said...

All, take a look at the $TNX part and go back to the December lows....I believe a set up is coming.

McFearless said...

$TNX....chart

CV said...

@ben

I'm noticing something else as well... I'm going to have this in the charts for tomorrow's thread...

The VIX is very close to 16...

16 was the level it descended to in October '07... (after the summer scare, the Cramer rant, "They know nothing", and the FED started cutting rates"...

After equities started selling off in October '07, and really got going with Soc Gen in January '08, (and emergency rate cuts by the Fed at that time)... Bear Stearns erupted in March... The VIX was elevated again, but started to come down again after people started thinking Bear Stearns was taken care of...

The wave two UP (from the TOP in '07), ended in May '08... Where the VIX touched 16 again...

It has never seen 16 again (except for those two occasions, Oct '07 highs, May '08)...

We're there again...

I-Man said...

F*ck St Mary's.

Anonymous said...

Bloomberg.com "Fed may increase discount rate before next policy meeting - Economist say" and a Editors' video pick "Most U.S. stocks fall on concern Fed will raise rates"?

What?

call me ahab said...

wow- some long days here lately- good though- because that means $$$-

got a morning post in on the "brackets"- and was disillusioned that CV didn't have all the big ten teams pushing to the "sweetness" that is sixteen-

except for maybe Minn-

but he did show some respect to Wisconsin and Ohio State-

so I'll give him that

call me ahab said...

and- because I am basically lazy- and have not perused the previous thread with any diligence-

did anyone catch Faber's comments today?

very interesting and plausible

Mannwich said...

G-town getting their asses handed to them. The first major casuality in my three brackets.

Mannwich said...

No ahab. What did he say? Rickards has chimed in about China being the biggest bubble of all time though.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aNZe4JWeV1aw

call me ahab said...

. . .and UNLV- needs to lose- I've hated that team since the towel sucking Armenian was the head coach

b22- yes Georgetown looks woeful- speaking of which- can you pick up the John Thompson show up in Delaware- dude still sounds like he has marbles in his mouth-

CV- being a local- do you ever catch the Sports Junkies- local boys- from Silver Spring I believe- dudes are funny- haven't caught the show in a long time- basically when WHFS turned into a spanish station when they had the morning slot- but I use to catch them all the time on my way home when they were on in the afternoons on WJFK

call me ahab said...

b22-

here's the link re Faber-

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35912043

love this line- which I tend to buy into-

"I think interest rates forever in the US will be at zero, by zero I mean below the rate of inflation,"

Mannwich said...

Thanks ahab. FYI - It's me, Mannwich, not b22.

Mannwich said...

Interesting, ahab. What crazy times we are living in. I wonder just how much they can reflate this bubble (and for how much longer) before it all collapses?

call me ahab said...

manny-

dude- that's funny- I saw your avatar and it kind of looked like b22's-

maybe I should read the name next time- lol

I remember you as the big dog(-:

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Yeah, I decided to switch things up a bit. A picture from my recent Kauai trip in Nov. ;-)

call me ahab said...

Georgetown now only down by 7!!!


manny- that whole viewpoint- now that all stops are out- money printing forever-

Faber's takeaway- stocks have to go up-

in the end it all implodes- but down the road

call me ahab said...

manny-

I was born in Honolulu- I guess that makes me Hawaiian(-:

got caught in a nasty rip tide once body surfing about 2:00 in the AM-

made it back in- but barely

I was quite fearful

Mannwich said...

@ahab: You're gonna get your wish - UNLV going to lose too.

Mannwich said...

Sounds plausible (anything does at this point), ahab. Might as well enjoy in the meantime, right?

I hear you about rip tides in Hawaii. There are some nasty ones there. Have to be real careful. That must have been a scary thing.

McFearless said...

wow, G-Town out, #5 for Ohio played a great game.

Mannwich said...

That G-Town loss really effs up all three of my brackets. I hope not too many picked Ohio there.

call me ahab said...

manny-

happened to me last year on a surf board- unbelievably-

I was down in the OBX w/ my younger son- 15- and he was surfing on my board but was drifting out way too far-

I had my older son's board- the real surfer in the family- and his board is as light as a feather-

got on it and rode out to my son telling him to get in-

next thing you know- I am getting pushed out to sea- on this almost weightless surfboard- and it took all I had to wrestle that surfboard back into shore-

I am going to leave the ocean to my kids at this point

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Wow, that sounds like a truly scary story. Must have shaken you up a bit. I don't blame you for staying away from the water. I mainly just boogie board, although I wouldn't mind learning how to surf for real someday. My wife and I took a quick course on our honeymoon but I could barely even get up and stay up. My wife, on the other hand, got up quite easily.

On another note - had a blast skiing at Steamboat last weekend. Some nice fresh snow. Such a different (better) skiing experience out there. Soft, fluffy snow and really long, scenic trails. A lot of fun. Really improved over the weekend too. Can't wait to do it again next year.

call me ahab said...

manny-

Steamboat- awesome- I am a big snowboarder- all East coast though-

Vermont is great- but it's no Steamboat-

problem w/ East coast is ice

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Yeah, same thing in MN (and no real decent hills here except for maybe WAY up north in Lutsen). Too much ice. The skiing is like floating out in CO. Usually not icy at all. Like floating on feathers. Doesn't hurt as much when you take a spill either. I think I'm hooked. Would rather not get hooked on such an expensive hobby though.

2small2bail said...

Golden Eagles lose to the Huskies after a double-digit 2nd half lead - had 'em in my final 8, darn

call me ahab said...

2small-

mangy mutts?

I-Man said...

My brackets in shambles. Huskies deserved that win. Pondexter is a beast.

2small2bail said...

not James Ahab, just 2small - long time reader, infrequent poster, no other handle

call me ahab said...

2small & I-Man-

pinning all your hopes on the home team?

Anonymous said...

Not skiing on ice is a completely different thing.

I'm on the east coast and you can do it, but you have to hike. There is a lot of good back country skiing that you can take advantage of. Watch out for the tress. There are a lot more people that do it than you think, they are just very protective of their snow.

My bracket is on life support. Big east letting me down.

bob

I-Man said...

Kinda... I thought Richmond would win. I'm not a UW fan. I had Marquette all the way to the 16, and I should have picked ODU dammit, I called that shit.

If Siena and Tennessee dont win I'm done for.

McFearless said...

Yeah, Pondexter is good.

Jimmer Fredette!

2small2bail said...

Ahab - Big East bias cost me 10 points ...

call me ahab said...

so- now that more folks are around- sports aside- who saw the Faber article?

call me ahab said...

2small-

Big Ten is where you need to be-

not that I'm partial

karen said...

i wish someone would sext me, i mean, text me, when you all are having a party!

2small2bail said...

Ahab - re: Faber - the variation of opinion on the extent and sequence of -flation is vague ... seems he's predicting no deflationary collapse for 10 years ... long time to wait for pretend to end

call me ahab said...

karen-

crack me up(-:

I-Man said...

Funny, K.

My sis works at a very posh private day school in ATL, and they just had a big "sexting" scandal.

I-Man said...

And no Capt, did not check the Fab-argh...

karen said...

ahab, i something for you: Best Divorce Letter Ever

call me ahab said...

karen-

awesome!!!! poor dude has it bad- his wife doesn't understand-

maybe she'll get her shit together and make it right by him(-:

call me ahab said...

2small-

exactly- 10 years- plausible???

maybe

the Fed has a track record of keeping the dream alive-

even if it ends in complete implosion- who knows when the real end is?

karen said...

ahab, i know, i know, i can relate to his problems myself!!

AmenRa said...

Karen

I've seen that before and it still cracks me up when I read it.

call me ahab said...

so . . .you're in the tub with a teenage girl???

wow- that's sexy(-:!!

karen said...

Not!! and reverse the sexes! besides that, i only skimmed the end and am far from interested in babies..

karen said...

okay, let's talk markets! i'm getting close to throwing in the towel, just as in 07..problem is, in 07, the FED wasn't the instigator of the leverage as it is now.. i mean, they were the facilitator, but not the promoter..

call me ahab said...

karen- you kill me(-:

call me ahab said...

alright-

as we said in the Navy- the "rack monster" is calling-

meaning I am very sleepy-

anyway- Karen- your last post- I am feeling the same way-

catch you in the morning

karen said...

xxx to you all!

Anonymous said...

Anyone else noticing that while USD gained some pips during the last 2days or so and Euro sliding down to 1.357 levels, Precious Metals seem to be hanging on, especially siver.

Prashant

Mannwich said...

Testing, 1,2,3. My "big down day" on Monday prediction got eaten. Big brother?

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