AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bullish long day. That's why I prefer the hanging man to close lower (adds to the bearishness). Closed above fibo extension 1153.47 and next price target is 1172.08. New high for daily 3LB with reversal now 1145.61.



DXY
Bearish long day. Tested 10 & 21 SMA and failed (again). Didn't test Gann 2x1 today so the 3x1 is next target. New low for daily 3LB with reversal still 80.85 (until the 3rd new low).



VIX
Spinning top day that gapped lower but did trade through the gap during the day. Held lower trendline so all hope is not lost. Midpoint still below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Shot through the 10, 21, 55, and 89 SMA's. Does that indicate absolute fear somewhere? No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint is still above 10 SMA. Has the Gann 2x1 in its sights. No daily 3LB changes.




SUGAR #11
Bearish long day. Now has a monthly 3LB reversal by trading below 18.61. Utter devastation. The 261.8% fibo extension at 15.65 may be in play if this keeps up. New low for daily 3LB with reversal now 20.32.



BIDU
Bearish short day which by opening higher negated the shooting star. It did close below the midpoint of the previous day so it can be a dark cloud cover (even though it would be better if the previous day was a long day). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Still it has a gap to get filled. No daily 3LB changes.

22 comments:

mcHAPPY said...

It appears Bucky is lifeless and unconscious. Who is going to start mouth-to-mouth?

Luv the gold trend said...

I'm not sure about the S&P, but I sure like gold here. Could be the meat of a third wave starting now. Some sort of 3 month to 12 month blow off for gold seems quite possible.

I don't want to see it below 1085 and ideally I don't want to see it below 1108 tomorrow.

Steve

call me ahab said...

the Fed is huffing and puffing to get inflation- any inflation- large or small-

and now w/ the QE genie out of the bottle- monetization will be the instrument of choice for- using the Fed's favored language- an "extended period"-

ZIRP isn't going anywhere and even in the event in the future they decide to bump a qtr or half percent- fear not- because they will back down without a moment's hesitation-

zirping and queasing for an "extended period"-

and it will continue off and on indefinitely- like we have been doing the last decade or so- but now w/ the added dimension of QE-

why change up a good thing

Anonymous said...

C, you'r good. This morning I wrote about your prediction for Google.

Now Tiger. Tiger is back at Masters, favorite with British bookies.

call me ahab said...

and here it is- our future-

"Japan’s central bank may increase a credit program by at least 5 trillion yen ($55 billion) today to stem deflation as separate credit measures are set to expire." Bloomberg

they have only been battling this very problem for 20 years-

looks like deflation will hang around until you let it do its thing-

but it gives Japan's central bank something to do I guess- justify its existence-

expect more power for the Fed to battle the same problem indefinitely- or until a major world wide conflagration

CV said...

@anon

Frankly, I'll be happy to see Tiger back playing golf again...

I'm sure the PGA Tour will too when he eventually starts playing a few events...

You have to think of something... The US Open this year is at Pebble Beach, and "The Open Championship" is at St. Andrews... Tiger not only won a lot of amateur tournaments at PB, but the also destroyed the field in winning the US Open there... He's won TWO Claret jugs at St. Andrews...

That considered... I'd be VERY surprised if he can keep it together for 4 days at the Masters... Golf is like that, I know... I'm sure he'll be good for at least one spectacular round, but 72 holes of championship golf is as much 'discipline' as skill...

It's an ENDURANCE TEST... Tiger will win at Augusta again, but odds are it won't be this year...

The 'bookies' tho, are smart, they'll gladly take a few pounds off the 'punters' in the process...

Anonymous said...

C, you'r are smart. I am amazed you havn't heard from an IB, like Andy.

CV said...

@ahab

It makes you wonder if all the central banks in the world just go around and printing money and giving away entitlements for the rest of eternity, and let the DEBT just keep piling up...

-trillions now
-quadrillions later

Who TF cares? It's like a game of Monopoly with kids that when someone goes bankrupt you just keep giving them money endlessly so that the game goes on...

CV said...

@anon

I'd only have lost them money by now...

I'd rather hear from a PUBLISHER...

Maybe MAD MAGAZINE needs staff writers :-)...

CV said...

BTW -

Going back to an earlier comment...

@McHappy
In the earlier thread, I postulated that the dollar weakness is due to "options pinning"...

I've been saying this for a couple of weeks now... There was HUGE March call buying in dollars way back last September... I think this sideways move (even lower), takes us through OPEX...

Max PAIN (I put up a chart on the last thread), would indicate as such...

CV said...

I also had a whole thread dedicated to the Euro three weeks ago that called for a bounce to 1.377, or even as high as 1.39...

That's happening now... It doesn't seem to be over yet, but this "wait period" before OPEX is MURDER for anyone on the wrong sides of those trades...

I think those factors are 70% of what's behind this move in equities... There's just no friction to hold them back...

AmenRa said...

EURUSD has tested the major fibo .09 at 1.3782 for few days now.

CV said...

Yeah but that might mean it's ready to push through...

I keep coming back to MAX PAIN on the dollar...

Something's holding it back through opex... When it blows, it's going to blow to the upside... But there are WAY WAY to many calls to payout if it happens before Friday...

Andy T said...

Random aside: We're fans of American Idol....tonight was Rolling Stones theme....and, as a Stones fan, tonight was great. Probably one of the best AI nights (yes, I know the show is 'cheesy') I've seen. It was sort of a testament to the timelessness of certain music/lyrics....

FWIW.

McFearless said...

keeping an eye on the fxp.

Something to consider, I read again today that Berkowitz is now also long AIG, which follows up on the C long. This guy has a good record.

Here is an interview with him from some time ago, a little snippet:

What is your strategy for the fund? If I was to build a stock screen like Bruce Berkowitz, what would it look like?

We start with this basis: The only thing you can spend is cash. We want companies that generate significant cash in most times. That is how we start. We don't care much about what they make, but we have to understand it. The balance sheet has to be strong; we want to make sure there are no tricks in the accounting. Then we try and kill the company. We think of all the ways the company can die, whether it's stupid management or overleveraged balance sheets. If we can't figure out a way to kill the company, and its generating good cash even in difficult times, then you have the beginning of a good investment.

So I guess I have to read that and think he's applying this to C and AIG at this point right?

Andy T said...

@cv. The Dollar has been dead money for longs for weeks. Just paying attention to that Commitment of Traders has helped to understand where the 'herd' has been on that trade recently. The excessive bullish sentiment had to get worked off...

McFearless said...

AT,

We watch Idol as well, I missed tonight though, got home after the first hour and then watched Lost. I don't care how cheesy it is, I like music and I like Idol. I do hate any of the group performances on the show though, those are rough.

Andy T said...

McFear: I sort of love that philosophy for investing in stocks. Period.

It's sort of like Investment/Stocks 101 in MBA courses. The very first thing a finance instructor said to me was: "cash is king...imagine the business like those old time check out registers....measure the cash going into the register....measure the case leaving the register....discount those cash flows...and then you can get a valuation."

It's pretty "easy" at the end of the day...if you want to "fundamentally" look at things...

CV said...

@Andy

I realize that it's been dead money for awhile now... I'd even anticipated that to be...

However, I don't see it as being technically broken to moving upwards again... Just waiting for the right time...

I'm hoping March opex & EOQ might be part of that scenario...

CV said...

@Andy

"measure the cash going into the register....measure the case leaving the register....discount those cash flows...and then you can get a valuation."

---

Great 'fundamental' way to look at things, but in a world where CSCO is pulling a Lucent and basically doing 'credit sales'...

Well..

To get a REAL fundamental look, you need one of those signs on your register that says "Cash only, NO credit"...

The world doesn't seem to operate that way anymore...

Andy T said...

cv. agreed. but that method of 'fundamental' analysis would have 'done you right' over the decades....it would have kept you away from a lot of things that eventually became steaming piles of shit. in the short run, obviously, anything can happen...thus, the 'technical' approach.

McFearless said...

Andy,

It's not that I disagree with the cash flow thoughts, but the whole thing about knowing the books in and out and the "no accounting tricks", was hard for me to swallow given his recent buys, sorry, but do you or I honestly believe that applies to C and AIG right now, as if they are all cleaned up and ready to go?

Perhaps I'm insane for being so skeptical of that but I was under the impression that while not as bad as before, these balance sheets were still impaired, and further still, does ANYONE really know what is going on at these places.

I agree measuring cash is important, though I've yet to come across any fundamental analysis that understands how to apply a value to something, even based on cash flow....in disequilibrium, when prices are not clearing where they "should".

Also, so you think this is an E wave on the dollar?, I'm curious where you get stuck counting the last big move as a C wave? Is it the 5 of C that ruins it for you? Thanks.

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