AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: Repeat to myself: I am not a tropical storm. I am not a tropical storm. I am a hurricane.



SPX
Bearish short day (confirmed harami cross but not by much). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1125.59). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish harami cross day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.69).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Is it time to run yet?



GOLD
Bearish engulfing day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1310.30).



EURUSD
Bearish harami cross day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3637). BoE needs to tap out.



JNK
Bullish long day (confirmed bearish thrusting). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 85.4% retrace (heading for 0%). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.78).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (failed to confirm takuri). The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.61).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day again (13th in a row - hmmmm). Held its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.5441).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day (barely confirmed evening star). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4453.92).



CRB
Bearish engulfing day (fully enclosed yesterdays candle). Still above the 100% retrace at 280.69. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 283.99).



23 comments:

mcHAPPY said...

As usual, thanks Ra eventhough it often goes unsaid.

Any chance for a swift move down to that 89 day MA? I would loooove that to happen.

Unfortunately, I do not hold much faith in this move in the SPX.

AmenRa said...

Ben

(from previous thread)
The Gallup poll also said the majority of job losses happened in the second half of the month. Which just happens to be AFTER the NFP does its poll.

AmenRa said...

mcHAPPY

Swift would be nice but the chances of some form of intervention is very high. If it comes in BTE then that would kill the argument for QE2. If it's already priced in that would send the market lower.

call me ahab said...

so Ra-

if the NFP number is good- then QE2 is off the table and stocks rise because the employment picture is improving

if the NFP number is bad- then QE2 is a lock and stocks improve because of the liquidity that will be injected into the economy-

sounds like a win/win-

(but I bet it turns out different)

McFearless said...

I'm sure you have all heard about this:

I just found this line in particular pretty interesting:

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s3032535.htm

"The National Oil Spill Commission has released a report saying the White House undermined public trust by being over-optimistic about BP's ability to bring the ruptured well under control."

Over-optimistic....no way they are doing that with our, uh, debt problems right?

RIGHT?

Jennifer said...

Ben -- do you get Gary Savage's daily commentary? I seem to remember seeing you comment once about something at Smart Money Tracker.

McFearless said...

Jennifer,

No, I've read them a bunch but I don't get the daily. Something good in there today?

McFearless said...

we've had six straight friday's up since this latest rally started.....big day Friday.

J said...

Bear with me -- I burned 3 fingers on my right hand cooking dinner. Ouch. It tasted good though!

J said...

Dont send the copyright police after me:

Then it will just be a matter of how far the dollar can rally before rolling over into the next leg down. I don’t know if it will happen or not but if the dollar could possibly make it back to 80 I expect that will be the last time we will see the dollar index trading at that level for the duration of this 3 year cycle and we may never see that level again for the rest of the secular bear market.



So we are now on the lookout for a counter trend rally. However I don’t expect the dollar rally to last very long. Since the dollar is now in an extreme left translated and failed intermediate cycle we can expect all daily cycles to also be left translated. That means daily cycles shouldn’t rally more than 10 days. Actually I doubt the bounce will rally more than 4 – 8 days before rolling over again.

Thoughts on the whole cycle/right-left translated concept? Sometimes it seems to work, sometimes not so much.

J said...

That wasn't really clear what was him and what was me....

You can clearly see the dollar is in virtual free fall. As a matter of fact we’ve already seen massive damage done and this was only the second daily cycle within the larger intermediate cycle. During left translated intermediate cycles the really big losses occur during the last daily cycle. This is when emotions really start to get out of control. Well we haven’t even reached that stage yet and already the dollar is dropping like a rock. The next daily cycle is where the real destruction is going to be done. Folks, we ain’t seen nothing yet.



I fully expect to see the dollar slice right through support at the 74 level like a hot knife thru butter, ultimately testing the all-time lows at 71 before putting in the intermediate and yearly cycle low. If you think the recent currency collapse drove a huge move in gold and silver wait till you see what the next leg down in the dollar does.



I expect the next leg down will also drive stocks to at least test the April highs and maybe to marginal new highs before rolling over into the next intermediate cycle low. Of course it will depend on how fast liquidity leaks out of the stock market to find its way into the commodity markets as the currency crisis starts to intensify. This is the reason why continual currency debasement isn’t going to have the full effect the Fed wishes. Certainly a falling dollar will act to support all asset prices to some extent, but no matter how much the Fed tries they will never be able to control where the liquidity they create ultimately ends up. And it is going to continue to leak into the commodity markets at ever faster rates as the dollar collapse intensifies. This is the reason the Fed can’t print the Dow to 36,000. If they tried all they would succeed in doing would be to print gold $10,000 and oil $200.

J said...

So, I guess my big issue is that he doesn't see the possibility of the dollar strengthening much at all, whereas i (we?) have been starting to position for that...I guess that's what makes a market.

call me ahab said...

jennifer-

I can't disagree with the analysis (per se)

the difference this time being the threat of trillions in QE-

inflationary? money chasing commodities and paper assets?

but do we know what the Fed will really do?

karen said...

AR, i think you should quit. the pay, the job, the subject matter, all lousy.

Jennifer, what ever you do, do not start drinking wine at your age.. wait till you are 49. thank you for sharing, btw.

McFearless said...

thanks for that post Jennifer. Interesting pov, we'll see what happens.

Andy T said...

Wish I could comment during the day more often....

I liked Thor's recap of the failed state that is California. To which, I had to remind: "In a Democracy, the people get the government they deserve."

But, do we get the Credit Cards we deserve?!?

I say, "No."

Today, I found out that the Chase/Continental Airlines Credit Card I've had for a decade now is going to charge me 27% interest on new purchases, up from 9% for the last several years.

I don't really carry much of a balance, but was quite furious about this, on principle.

WTF?!?

Over my last 17 years of being a "credit card" holder of various sorts, my total credit balance has swung between 0 and $80,000. The big balances have occurred for various good reasons over that time (i.e. the opportunity cost of the cash was better than 0% interest rates, etc...)

Anyway, I've got excellent credit...maybe my wife has paid late on accident over the last couple of decades but we've always paid off.

So, I call these fuckers at Chase and try to get this usurious rate back to my ol' rate....

The response: "I'm sorry sir. We cant' do anything for you."

I said: "Fuck you. I'm paying off this balance right now. Cancel my account please."

The whole experience was unreal. In contrast, during 2008, when the world was melting down and Citibank couldn't even borrow at sub-10%, the folks at USAA offered to roll whatever credit card debt I had at 7% FOREVER.

Strange days....

McFearless said...

some people might be interested in this blog:

http://www.biggirlssmallkitchen.com/

McFearless said...

AT,

real fantastic recovery of the "system" they've accomplished here.

McFearless said...

nobody commented on the Kyle Bass videos

AmenRa said...

ben

Waching it now.

mcHAPPY said...

I have full faith in Bucky only because so few do not. 4% bulls on dollar. 97% bulls on Euro.

CV said...

@McF

That potato pesto salad looks good...

What's interesting... people... Is that if there ever were to be problems, and the there were food shortages... Most of you (who either don't farm - or, at best... kill [I mean grow] a few plants in a back porch garden) don't realize that all the ingredients for that little dish are VERY easy to grow...

Despite the fact that I have land, I actually grow my potatoes in trash cans and old tires... They like average soil, so you don't have to do anything special... Basil, arugula, and tomatoes are normally very easy to grow as well...

Better yet, all of these things produce seeds, or (eyes), that are easy to harvest and regenerate...

The only problem in making the dish would be those of you who didn't have any olive oil (like DL)...

So, DL, I guess when the time comes, you're just going to have to satisfy yourself with bugs & dirt...

CV said...

new thread

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