AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection




Creditcane™: Took my eyes off the road and headed in the wrong direction. Will have to turn around and make up time.



SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and now above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1125.59). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Well below its 61.8% retrace at 79.72. Back below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.01).



VIX
Bearish short day (had to undo confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89).



GOLD
Bullish LONG day (confirmed bearish thrusting). Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1308.30).



EURUSD
Bullish short day (uncovered dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Passed test of 1.3782 (the fib .09 from high). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3562).



JNK
Bullish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.65).




10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding strong. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.95).



YEN (FXY)
Spinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Marching towards its 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 119.13).




DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 4453.92). Trans on, trans off. This is going to cause a derailment eventually.










67 comments:

Leftback said...

Derailment, nice !!! Especially when the railroads are issuing 100 year paper...

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 10.5.10

A risk-on, buy everything, close your eyes and wade in there waving your massive piles of wonga kind of day. Bobby Bond Buyer was going bonkers today, Jim Caron likes the 5y, and even Louise Yamada weighed in on her technical forecast for the 2y. The financial networks are eating up the bond market with a great big spoon these days.

Yes, folks, suddenly everyone looooooves fixed income. Even your neighbors are beginning to ask you about Treasuries, munis, "because bonds are doing so well", and those juicy JNJ and IBM 10y offerings at 2,75%, not to mention those MBS "now that they've come back".

Due to "insatiable demand" from the inwesting public, railroads and corporations, governments and obscure third division soccer clubs are issuing 100-year paper. What could possibly go wrong?

A decent piece of employment news, that's what... maybe not tomorrow, or Friday, but it's OUT THERE.... you have been WARNED.

Corpies: LQD 0.21%; AGG 0.00%; JNK 0.58%; HYG 0.36%;
Govies: TLT -0.60%; IEI 0.11%; TIP 0.64%
Hedgies: TBT 1.12%

We did nothing. We are long JNK, HYG and a tiny bit of AGG and LQD. We are short the long bond, quite heavily, as a trade, one to which we may return frequently in 2011.

Leftback said...

You do all know what WONGA is, right chaps?

McFearless said...

Ra,

So credit cane is back on the right road? ror, that bastard, thanks for the update as always man.

do any of you rec. a good book for candlestick study? I've mostly learned what I know off the web but would prefer an actual book if anyone has any recs.

thanks.

call me ahab said...

the reason I love CNBC- this headline:

"Christmas Gifts for People Who Have It All"

and here I was worried I wouldn't think of some "super cool" gifts for those I know who have it all

anyway- my SDS fade play before the ISM- not so good- small position- so will ride it a bit-

also- it appears leftback is all in on a good jobs number- and the TBT-

what of his EUO play he mentioned last week? no mention of that

interesting that the financial news media is setting the expectation of a poor NF payroll-

set the bar low enough and anything is a beat I guess

AmenRa said...

Ben

Here's two books I like:
1. Candlestick Charting Explained by Gregory Morris

2. Beyond Candlesticks by Steve Nison

prosciutto gristle said...

Lifetime shorting opportunities everywhere I look! What a glorious gift.

McFearless said...

thanks a lot Ra.

call me ahab said...

and then there is this-

The Bank of Japan may have acted first in a new round of central bank action to prop up the global economy as recoveries in industrial nations falter.

thank god for central banks-

paper money can make all the difference-

keeping a bid under assets- all is well

CV said...

@prosciutto gristle

Go "long" SURVIVOR CAPITAL... That's all I can say... At minimum, you'll stay entertained :-)

AND

STAY "long" prosciutto... One of the rare "excuisite" tastes in the world...

GREAT with PROSECCO!

Andy T said...

The 100 year issuances....

Funny stuff that!

In many respects, it's sort of unfucking believable that people are BUYING 100 year paper.

Andy T said...

Prosciutto in the house....

I-Man said...

@ B22

Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts
Charles Bulkowski

http://www.amazon.com/Encyclopedia-Candlestick-Charts-Wiley-Trading/dp/0470182016

I-Man said...

THOMAS Bulkowsi, not Charles... I always mix those two!

Because of this cat:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Bukowski

Andy T said...

Love articles like this one:

http://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-funds-dollar-collapse-2010-10

Who is this person and why does Business Insider give her space?

Andy T said...

Naturally, it's the East Coast cheerleaders that want more coverage while the Florida girls wanted less....

Whatever

prosciutto gristle said...

I've got a few things to say. The saddest thing I have to say is that none of what I have to say deserves to be said.

In general, my thinking process is this: WHEN the whole world goes crazy, THEN the best course is to pursue one's pleasure, because who knows if you'll be able to tomorrow?

Right now, the stock, bond, currency and commodity markets are all telling me that the whole world is going fucking crazy.

Alas, at the end of the day, my pleasure does not lie with AAPL, euros, or tarnished silver tableware. I am childless, so I don't know where my happiness lies, exactly. But it's more in the direction of art, esp. stuff that predates Adam Smith. So, that is what I am collecting. My friends come over, they see it on the wall, and they think what the hell did you buy that for, guy? They don't say it in so many words, of course. But it underwhelms them in our overwhelming world.

Disclosure: Added to my SDS today.

call me ahab said...

Japan’s currency dropped as much as 0.8 percent against the dollar after [the central bank yesterday cut its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first time since 2008 and pledged to hold it at “virtually zero” until officials foresee a sustained end to deflation] before erasing those losses to close at 83.33 at 6 p.m. in Tokyo yesterday. The yen has soared in part because of signs that the Federal Reserve itself will enlarge its so-called quantitative easing.

what's a country to do? being outplayed by those savvy yanks

karen said...

AR, CV couldn't pay me enuf to do your job!! But, this is the most noteworthy thread ever!! I am even <3ing prosciutto !!

This country has gone comepletely surreal:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/10/donald_trump_im_seriously_cons.html

If that isn't tank the dollar worthy, what is?!

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/fed-we-can-support-asset-prices-for-the-public-good/

Andy T said...

Ok. I'm in Vegas this weekend....

Looking at the early lines....

One that JUMPS, JUMPS, JUMPS out at me is the Texas A&M/Arkansas line.

Arkansas ONLY a 6pt favorite over A&M???? Granted, the game is in Texas Stadium, but doesn't A&M Suck? And didn't Arkansas nearly beat Alabama?

That's funniest smelling line this weekend. I have to take Texas A&M and the points. Ugh.

karen said...

So, Andy, is this your birthday week??

CV said...

@Andy

P-E-R-F-E-C-T

Arkansas/Texas A&M

You kno dude... You just might make it as a bookmaker...

In any case... YOU'LL SEE (because you have priviledge (as author), to see FUTURE posts... Of which I'm starting to post NCAA & NFL lines 2 weeks in advance...

Bottom line?

Both Arkansas & Auburn are in "LOOK AHEAD" mode towards their match-up, week after next...

FADE 'EM BOTH...

The AGGIES aren't so bad either!

McFearless said...

"Right now, the stock, bond, currency and commodity markets are all telling me that the whole world is going fucking crazy."

Um, ...yes.

+Tarp to the tenth.

karen said...

best comment at tbp:

call me ahab Says:
October 5th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
A little honesty from a Fed Head isn’t so bad at least we know what they are really thinking…

what? they have to say out loud what we already knew? Should they have to say that low rates are intended to get people to borrow also?

karen said...

Rosie: Imagine running a policy aimed at getting people to spend money based on an artificial level of asset values — what an admission. Then again, this is what the Fed has been all about since the LTCM bailout of 1998. We’re still not convinced after reading this sermon that this next “pull-another-rabbit-out-of-the-hat” experiment is going to end with very much success. There is something to be said about paying for our mistakes and to have the Fed try to rekindle an asset-based economy that has only ended up in generating a series of burst bubbles over the last 12 years, not to mention encourage a lifestyle of living beyond our means, is irresponsible at best, dangerous at worst.

Andy T said...

@Karen. Yes. B-Day weekend in Vegas...

@CV. The guys I work with/for are known to make friendly wagers every week and are pretty decent. They're not as hot as you this year, but they win a few more than they lose, which is the key.

We have a ritual now.... An impartial person reads off the games and we "guess the what the line should be"...we're normally within 2pts of the actual line. Whenever we guess we're off by 4 or more points, it sends off alarm bells that something smells wrong. We follow the "smelly" side of the line.

This week it's A&M and South Carolina....we like those 'Dogs to bark (or at least cover.)

John Lennon said...

"Imagine running a policy"

---

"Imagine there's no countries... it isn't hard to do..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okd3hLlvvLw

Andy T said...

You should be able to tell I'm trying to take my mind off the trades right now...

Sort of a rough day....

CV said...

@Andy

That sounds like a fairly decent strategy...

CV's YARD BARKERS this week... (NEVER forget the LIVE HOME DOGS - intraweek)

- Kansas St. + the points
- Rutgers + the points
- Louisiana - Lafayette + the points

- WEEKEND- (taking points)

WAKE FOREST
SOUTH CAROLINA (CV doesn't want to dissuade you - but be careful on that)
TEXAS A&M - one of my favorites
BOSTON COLLEGE
KENTUCKY

Strangely... (because CV HATES to lay points)... I like the following:

Lay the points with:

- BOISE ST
- TCU
- WEST VIRGINIA
- Notre Dame

Andy T said...

To quote some Sheryl Crow lyrics:

"Everybody gets high, everybody gets low
These are the days when anything goes."

One of the keys to trading is trying not to get too high or low...in other words...don't be like everybody else.

I'm going to very short the S&P and really long the DXY in the next 48 hours....and, I'm nervous.

karen said...

Heroin wasn't an option for me this evening, sighing.. I wish you luck! Tho, earlier you claimed today was AWESOME..

I'm going for music.. following Lennon's beautiful "Imagine" with

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hzrDeceEKc&feature=related

karen said...

I went very long the dollar and very short the spx today.. it's all the same trade.. in any case.. all in, so to speak, mmm, and very deep.. LOL..

never mind that.. laughing.. forget it.

Andy T said...

@Karen. I'm with ya'...

It's the first time in a few months that I've actually had the feelings of anxiety/tension...so, guess this is "fun."

CV said...

As I said... LAYING POINTS is usually something I don't get in to, but consider this...

THE BCS is an absolute JOKE...

Last week, Boise State won 59-0 against New Mexico St. and DROPPED from 3rd to 4th in the POLLS...

Why?

Only because Oregon jumped them by beating Stanford...

That's WHY they need to have a PLAYOFF system (which I'm not going to argue for because it'll never happen)... It would be like trying to argue that we need 12 political parties (not 2)...

Sure... It would probably be more democratic... But TPTB will strive to NOT let that happen...

That's why I LAUGH at the likes of Barry "TWIT-holz" just as I do any NEOCON GOP...

Either is only interested in preserving his/her status quo towards the front of their rapidly disintegrating PECKING ORDER...

So - back to NCAA football... Well, you have to take what's dealt...

Boise St. was up 31-0 in the 1ST QUARTER last week... They pulled all their starter OUT OF MERCY in that game (and cruised to a 59-0 win with SCRUBS)...

But I suppose the NAZI NCAA would have preferred if they totally annihilated new mexico State by a score of 178-0, just to keep them ahead of Oregon and PROVE they were better...

It's FUCKING absurd...

Put it this way...

I expect the Boise State's & TCU's of the world to show LESS COMPASSION until this NAZI NCAA regime gets a clue...

IOW - lay the points...

Andy T said...

The 'anxiety' stems from the fact that the S&P is actually trading exactly like an inverted H&S pattern that targets 1250. It broke the neckline at 1130, tested it, and is now chugging higher.

It's probably stupid to be short here, until it can get break down back below that 1130 zone, but I guess I'm stupid. It just feels like there will be shit-tons of selling in front of 1174. If not, "oh well."

CV said...

Hey - CV is working on a project (that I just got my fingertips on)...

Is anyone game to see an image of it?

CV said...

It's of CV himself...

karen said...

I am!

karen said...

and Andy at 11:25.. we've got a 12xx+ target here and i am biting now.. d*mn me : )

CV said...

@karen

OK here we go... wait... let me look... which title do you prefer?

- 1 arm
- prep
- windup
- present
- intro
- stab
- press
- jump
- split
- extension
- wait
- y
- transition
- toe touch

YOU CAN ONLY PICK ONE :-)

karen said...

press, easy..

CV said...

@karen

BTW... x my chart today... I'm NOT predicting 1200 first...

I've got that 12 "momentum" thing going...

We may see 1200... But I'd predict 1090 first... FWIW...

karen said...

don't even go there.. i'll quit at 1170. never to be heard from again : )

CV said...

@karen

OK... PRESS it is... Unfortunately, it's the LEAST dynamic of the fotos I'm holding (so I'm going to include another to go with it)...

I'll post it in this thread in a minute... Then, you'll be jealous about the calories burned on your 3 hour beach walks... (Note: I'll be MORE jealous than u)...

CV said...

@karen

Stop distracting me...

YES... No 1170, for now... 70 something-ish on RSI... then a big correction... I think 1090...

Then, I'll worry about the rest...

Now- to the fotos... stop distracting me...

CV said...

@karen

OK... crazy fotos of CV back in the day... ( to be deleted later)...

new fotos in thread

karen said...

ALL truly spectacular.. Wow!

karen said...

Intro was my favorite.. tho press was a good pick : )

thank you for sharing!

CV said...

wait... added a few more

karen said...

too fun!! loved them all, really! and i bet you are still the same ageless : )

CV said...

@k

Can't jump as high in this moment... (but give me about 3 months & I think I could - REALLY)...

Now - To I-Man & ben...

I did that BS when I was 33 yo... So each of you have 3 years to train into it...

It'll cost you a LOT OF PAIN... PAIN that will NEVER leave your body...

But you'll ALWAYS smile nevertheless... Got it in ya?

Yours truly...

CV

karen said...

signing off now.. thank you so much for sharing those glimpses... i was a wimp in comparison, tho i might have been able to out run you! LOL..

I-Man said...

Wow man... thats hardcore athleticism there CV.

Was that some kind of competition or something?

Anonymous said...

Yep thats impressive CV!

And good luck with the trades people, sounds like its... show time.

best Bertie

Anonymous said...

AUD is back above 0.97US and I'm nearly ready to short my own currency.

But then, I usually wait too long and end up missing the chance ha. Here's cheers to those who are able to actually pull the trigger!
Bertie

Anonymous said...

Jack Crooks was pointing the other day to the amazing short US$ position to the Euro similar to Oct 2009 - which blew up a month later. But a day earlier he had talked about the AUD outperformance against CAD as a China-inspired risk premium which looked like it needed a pull back and a last leg up in order to run its course.

Anyway, its that time of night where I can talk to myself for a while without even disturbing anyone! Cheers Bertie

BinT said...

WASHINGTON -- Desperate for jobs and cool toward President Barack Obama, working-class whites are flocking to Republicans, turning a group long wary of Democrats into an even bigger impediment to the party's drive to keep control of Congress.

An Associated Press-GfK poll shows whites without four-year college degrees preferring GOP candidates by twice the margin of the last two elections, when Democrats made significant gains in the House and Senate. The poll, conducted last month, found this group favoring GOP hopefuls 58 percent to 36 percent -- a whopping 22 percentage-point gap.

In 2008, when Obama won the presidency, they favored GOP congressional candidates by 11 percentage points, according to exit polls of voters. When Democrats won the House and Senate in 2006, the Republican edge was 9 percentage points.

McFearless said...

A full split!

that's impressive

I once did a somersault without any curve on the roll-over, didn't get it on film though.

McFearless said...

dude you are in some serious shape in those pics, pretty cool, the jumping split is crazy too, I was never very flexible like that.

re: inverted H&S....man I hate that damn thing, it did re-test the neckline, and though it's a pretty crappy example of an H&S, yeah....it does look like it's working.

McFearless said...

I'd have to stop eating nuggets at Chick Fil-A to get in that kind of shape CV.

I'm not sure I'm ready to give that up, I deserve those nuggets you know.

McFearless said...

wish I would have gotten Michael Bush off waiver but I was in position 7, figured he wouldn't last to me.

McFearless said...

the high and mighty have spoken again about the "way it should be" (unless it is him of course, then nevermind)

"Buffett has called for greater accountability from bank executives whose risk-taking produces losses for shareholders and imperils the economy. The use of derivatives has allowed banks to add risk and “makes a mockery” of federal rules designed to limit losses, Buffett said. “You should go broke,” he said of chief executive officers whose firms require government bailouts to protect society. “And I think your wife should go broke, too,” he said."

AmenRa said...

Ben

Didn't Buffett have derivatives?

AmenRa said...

ADP -39k. Let's see if NFP gets the China treatment.

McFearless said...

Ra,
as far as I know he still does.

CV said...

new thread

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