AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: What can I say? I have an evil twin?



SPX
Bullish short day (c'mon son. really?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1142.71). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.09).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.19). Approaching the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day (broke free from engulfing). Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1310.30).



EURUSD
Doji day (no harami cross confirmation). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899 again. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3637). BoE needs to tap out.



JNK
Hanging man day (at the 100% retrace)). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed slightly above the 100% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.86).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (struggling to close gap). The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.56).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4531.19). Train A has entered the tunnel traveling 55mph. Train B has entered the other end of the tunnel traveling 89mph. You know the answer.



CRB
Bullish LOOONNGG day (fully engulfed the bearish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 285.93).



TLT
Bearish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 23.6% retrace for the last seven days. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 106.02).




13 comments:

McFearless said...

7 up friday's since this last rally started....

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Finally finished..Good hike, got all my chores Momma told me to do finished.

Ben, it certainly is interesting, this manipulation of interest rates to force money into more risky investments. Like no time in my lifetime.

mcHAPPY said...

Many of the comments were distressed bullish or throw in the towel-ish.

In my opinion, when comments start being posted here about going higher, some extreme has been reached. Time will tell. You have to admit things are extreme right now.

BTW this comment is not to be putting anyone down or implying anything - just sayin'.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

McHappy,

Things are extreme. I agree. If you watch the video that CR posted of the 3 Amigos, all three of these veteran economists expect >10% U3 in 2011. The only possible way the market goes up is ZIRP, and to me it looks like it is limited to equities, not real estate or other scary stuff.

It is just a very anxious time. Down here in the South we would call it "tight anus time"...TAT.

Leftback said...

The QE2 Bond Report 10.8.10

Today was a modest risk on day in credit, and a bit of a steepener, despite another awful jobs report. It was all priced in. HY outperformed IG, and TIPS outperformed vanilla Ts. Please bear in mind that 2s10s is at about 200 bps, so if it gets steeper from here, that would help the banks. We are in ZIRP so the front end is anchored until such time as there is QE withdrawal or a rate hike. This isn't a bullish scenario for the 10 year.

Corpies: LQD -0.10%; AGG 0.20%; JNK 0.15%; HYG 0.34%;
Govies: TLT -0.44%; IEI 0.08%; TIP 0.66%
Hedgies: TBT 0.89%

When QE2 was first mooted, a wise man, Tony Crescenzi, said on BBG
TV that the Fed's intent was to push inwestors out along the risk curve. IOW, they weren't really trying to get YOU to buy USTs by themselves absorbing USTs, they were trying to get people OUT of USTs into risk assets. So, that's what LB did, buying more equity longs and HY bonds and selling Treasuries and lower-yielding vehicles that presently offer little except rate risk (AGG, LQD).

Their aim was three-fold, first to lower rates in the short end to insulate banks, corporates and REITs from MBS and CMBS misadventures in the future, second, to allow the banks to begin to EXIT with profits from their Treasury positions which they have been accumulating during 2010, and third, to provide a source of liquidity to further support risk assets such as MBS, high-yield corporates and equities.

These objectives seem to have been largely met. In addition, as a side effect, they have also generated inflationary tailwinds by devaluing the dollar and hence stoking the price of many important commodities, including oil and grains, which will eventually feed into the CPI. Note that this was all achieved without QE being executed, but merely by the threat of QE2.

In the 2009 episode, the actual inception of the QE was met by selling of Treasuries, since the buying was already priced in. As we know, equities and commodities continued higher for some time, no doubt supported in part by liquidation of fixed income positions and asset class rotation. Keep that in mind.

We did nothing. We are long HY (10% position), AGG (3%) and we are short the long end (12%) position and looking to add on any Treasury strength on Monday.

There is an auction of 10y and 30y next week and that is usually bearish for long-duration Ts into the event, and then bullish thereafter, as we have outlined here on many occasions.

Leftback said...

Bruce, that is known as:

Squeaky Bum Time in Olde England.

McFearless said...

Did any of you watch CNBC this morning?

Bullard from the Fed was on as a guest within other segments with various CEO's/pundits, etc. It was pretty interesting to watch him when certain questions were asked. Diane Swonk prior to the employment number said something about QE 2 in November and Crazy Karl says: "well, that's not a certainty" and Diane Swonk basically said....yes it is.....Bullards face was the thing to watch. I'm sure it's in the video's over there if anyone is interested.

McFearless said...

I'm very bearish right now with the recent action, I have shorts on but certainly not fully short since we could still see the 1170's, there is huge resistance around 118-119 spy. I'll go fully short with a stop at a 2% loss if we can get all the way up there. Could only be a correction before a launch toward the april highs before year end but it's worth a trade as the correction should be fairly sharp/swift.

prosciutto gristle said...

According to the latest US Weekly, Chia LaBerff opened a Schwab account and invested $20k in 2009 "to research his role" in the "Wall Street" sequel. He traded every day from the set, and ended up $610,000 richer. "I'm pretty good" he enthuses.

call me ahab said...

When QE2 was first mooted, a wise man, Tony Crescenzi, said on BBG TV that the Fed's intent was to push inwestors out along the risk curve . . .Their aim was first . . . to lower rates in the short end to insulate banks

alright- someone 'splain to me why this makes sense-

with QE2- if the objective is to push people out "along the yield curve" into riskier assets-

wouldn't rates increase as folks bail out of "low yielding" riskless assets?

but maybe I misreadin' and misunderstandin'

call me ahab said...

check it out-

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/10/job-losses-and-preliminary-benchmark.html

are these good times?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Calculated Risk is the Wes Craven of scary chart making...no doubt.

CV said...

weekend NFL & NCAA picks up

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