AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: Hard to turn around when using manual steering (aka market not moving enough).


SPX
Harami cross day (Danger Will Robinson! Danger!). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1125.59). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.69).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). A bit too complacent eh?



GOLD
Bullish short day (can't touch this). Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made another new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1310.30).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3637). BoE needs to tap out.



JNK
Bearish thrusting day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.65).




10YR YIELD
Takuri day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 was violated. New 0% in chart. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.95).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day again (12th in a row - hint hint). Held its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.5441).



YEN (FXY)
Doji day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested but failed its 0% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 115.30).




DJ TRANS AVG
Evening star day (come on confirmation). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4453.92). This is going to cause a derailment eventually (train is leaning ever so slightly).



27 comments:

mcHAPPY said...

Bear Porn

McFearless said...

Phils.....yes.

McFearless said...

client called me tonight to see if it was ok to get a 40k heloc (she owns her home, no mtg) to redo a bathroom in the house.

FMV of home is ~325-350k.

I'm getting calls about stocks as well

just sayin.

McFearless said...

also, from Whalen's conclusions page within McHappy's link:

1. The U.S. banking industry is entering a new period of crisis 
where operating costs are rising dramatically due to 
foreclosures and defaults.  We are less than ¼ of the way 
through the foreclosure process.   Laurie Goodman of 
Amherst Securities predicts that 1 in 5 mortgages could go 
into foreclosure without radical action. 

2. Rising operating costs in banks will be more significant than 
in past recessions and could force the U.S. government to 
restructure some large lenders as expenses overwhelm 
revenue.  BAC, JPM, GMAC foreclosure moratoriums only 
the start of the crisis that threatens the financial 
foundations of the entire U.S. political economy.  

3. The largest U.S. banks remain insolvent and must continue 
to shrink. Failure by the Obama Administration to 
restructure the largest banks during 2007‐2009 period only 
means that this process is going to occur over next three to 
five years – whether we like it or not.  The issue is 
recognizing existing losses ‐‐ not if a loss occurred.  

4. Impending operational collapse of some of the largest U.S. 
banks will serve as the catalyst for re‐creation of RFC‐type 
liquidation vehicle(s) to handle the operational task of 
finally deflating the subprime bubble.   End of the 
liquidation cycle of the deflating bubble will arrive in 
another four to five years. 


those are some scary forecasts.

call me ahab said...

40k to redo a bathroom on a 325k house?

I think she should set her sights a bit lower- she'll never get that much value on the improvement when she sells-

5k to 10k maybe

The largest U.S. banks remain insolvent and must continue to shrink . . .The issue is
recognizing existing losses ‐not if a loss occurred.


it's interesting how this is swept under the rug as a non-issue

call me ahab said...

a CV convert?

“I invest in anything that Bernanke can’t destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries,"- David Stockman

I think this dude's been peeking in on Survivor Capital

call me ahab said...

more Stockman-

"We are not in a conventional business cycle recovery, so stimulus is futile and just adds needlessly to the $9 trillion of Treasury paper already floating dangerously around world financial markets. . .The only solution is a long period of debt deflation, downsizing and economic rehabilitation, including a sustained downshift in consumption and corresponding rise in national savings.

makes sense to me

Andy T said...

Ben--

Not in Vegas yet...will be there this weekend for three days. Should have better luck there than in the markets. Ha.

Gotta love BR.

Reading your e-mails now....

I-Man said...

Who does your client think she is when it comes to bathrooms?

John Thain???

Must be getting a golden commode put in there...

non anon said...

Sheesh. I read this link:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18475/chasing-tail-risk-with-gold-ding-dong
navigate to the "page 3" website to do a little, um, fact-checking and...50 minutes later I'm here to pass this time sink on to you!

Andy T said...

OK. I missed whatever pictures CV posted last night....sounds like I "missed something."

Posting here some Brian Cushing hurdling 64"...All I can say is .....WTF?!???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epW8IKLngBA

AmenRa said...

2yr 0.38%
Gold 1353+
Silver 23.30+
USDJPY 82.87
10yr 2.41% (not for long)
Foreclosure problems still not hitting the MSM.

Run Forest Run!

BinT said...

Just a question. If you are a trader, not an investor, and you saw the Tepper video, and invested as he suggested heavily into equities...how have you done since it aired?

....Just a question...ugh, back to sleep..

mcHAPPY said...

This is ridiculous:

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39550663/1

How long before Americans get angry? I don't mean a little upset but ANGRY. I don't mean a portion of the population (that is already the case) but the MAJORITY.

The fact politicians are bought and paid for is no longer even being hidden.

Democracy is dead, long live the monarchy in the big banks kingdom.

BinT said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39542375/ns/business-us_business/

Midnight grocery runs part of the grim new reality

"Walmart, Kroger, Kmart and others have worked with their suppliers to stock more gallons of milk and supersized packages of toilet paper and detergent at the beginning of the month. Smaller packages and store brands are given prominence leading up to payday.

Walmart is collaborating with vendors to offer even smaller sizes for under a dollar to win back customers who are heading to dollar stores to buy mini-size laundry soap and other items because they only have a few dollars left until the next payment. Earlier this year, Kmart began pushing $1 items on snack packs and other food items, timed a week before the 15th of each month to help customers stretch their budgets.

"This is the new normal," said Richard Hastings, macro and consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities. "This is going to be like this for many years to come."

...Puts a little meat on the bones of the statement by the WMT CEO a couple of weeks ago...

BinT said...

The same night, Shavon Smith and her four young children were loading up on meat, fruit, bread, water, tissues and cereal at Kroger's Food 4 Less store on Chicago's West Side. Those staples had begun running out more than a week earlier.

"Tonight, they were tired and hungry, so I said, 'Let's go ahead and do it now,'" said Smith, who had $600 in food stamps electronically deposited to her electronic debit card at midnight.

"They can go to the fridge and get whatever they want in the beginning of the month, and we have bigger meals," a reprieve from the rationing that is the rule for the rest of the month, she added.

BinT said...

Stockman and BinT and Ahab and all of us would be labled bears by the MSM because we see the US economic world that way, Ahab. Realism is now no longer believed...it has always been that way.

....The Emperor's New Clothes...

CV said...

@Andy

Cushing is a beast... 64 inches...

But TRY 82!

In the fotos I had up yesterday, CV was doing, (we measured once), 80 inches of clearence...

It worked out this way...

- CV is 6 feet (72 inches)
- My measured 3 step vertical leap is/was 33 inches (5 inches higher than an average NBA player - but not even close to unbelievable jumpers like David Thompson)...
- 72 + 33 = 105
- When doing a shushanova (a jump where, from standing, NO 3 step prep, you elevate, splay out into a full toe touch in mid air, then whip your legs back and come down and land on the floor in a perfect pushup (then - of course - finish your 2 minute routine), the body would be compressed down into roughly 24 inches from full apex of jump...
- 105 - 24 - 81

If one were to add theatrics to that, it means I could have easily jumped over a Ferrari bearing down at full speed and not get hit at all...

Of course, you'd have to "time it" right - lol... But actually, I've seen it done before...

CV said...

I only performed the shushanova ONCE in competition, In Italy in 1993...

Someone else was videotaping it, and I don't have a copy...

Anyway, many others have done the move since, so you can see it... It looks like this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMzrZdNKAF8

Gymnasts do it all the time, but its 1000x easier for them because they're using spring loaded floors...

We did it off a wooden parquet (no spring at all)... That's what made it nearly impossible...

CV said...

Here's another look at a variation...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLb97Nm_hho&feature=related

BinT said...

Ben, I read your post of 8:03. Sorry I haven't been adding to the conversation lately, but we've been swamped...

I think we'd all be a little better off if instead of Bubbles they called these abberations Waves. I can form a mental image of CV on a surfboard riding the ZIRP wave by carefully buying equities (or gold,etc.) and getting off his board with stops before it crashes. Even though the economy is awful and I think, gets worse soon.

But bubbles leave me no mental image of attacking the problem and making the most of my money.

Of course I think CV went into the aerobics thingy because of the women..........

BinT said...

Rosenberg's rebuttal to Tepper...you have to scroll down a few videos to find it....

http://video.ft.com/

72bat said...

mchappy -
the reuters article doesn't cite the senate bill #. anyone have a line on that? time for a couple of emails and follow-up calls to my senator's local offices.

BinT said...

..Deflation in the things you 'want'...

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/10/06/business/business-us-samsung.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fbusiness%2Fglobal%2Findex.jsonp

SEOUL (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co, the world's largest memory chip maker, disappointed markets with weak earnings guidance, halting its second straight quarter of record results, due to plunging prices of flat screens and TVs.

The South Korean electronics powerhouse is braced for a tough outlook as a sputtering world economy has hit demand for TVs and computers and exacerbated steep price falls of components such as chips and flat screens.

"LCD (liquid crystal display) and TV performance appears to be worse than expected and the downward pressure on earnings will only grow as chip prices are also falling and TV makers increase price cuts," said Chung Young-woo, analyst at Korea Investment & Securities.

Anonymous said...

..off to the mine.

ben22 said...

Bruce,

I'm not sure what you are talking about regarding a post I made at 8:03, I went back and checked yesterday but I didn't make any posts at that time, but yeah, I call everything waves, and sure, the bubbles are part of the waves.

CV said...

new thread

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.