Morning Audibles 10.5.09

Wondering why... You got out of bed? 

Crude Oil Rises on Port Closures, Speculation of Growth in U.S.


Hear that people? GROWTH! (And you won't mind paying $10 a gallon for it... Will you?... Even though you're still out of a job, with no prospects, you don't mind paying TRIPLE prices for gas and food, just so Bernanke & Obama can claim victory that they conquered the Depression)...




Excerpt: "Oil rose to trade near an eight-week high after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman said the central bank’s asset sales have boosted the economy, while disruptions at France’s biggest oil port continued."


Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday the central bank’s first round of large-scale asset purchases improved the economy and that further buying is likely to help more."


In similar news... CV would like (all you ladies) to know that I am the GREATEST LOVER since Tristain...




Further, I am the GREATEST WARRIOR since Hector & Achilles...




When they elect me President, I'll be the GREATEST POTUS since, since, since... (FOTO withheld - technical difficulties - Head too big to fit in frame)... Question: Does "better than Bush" count?


---


I am the greatest "negotiator" since Rodney King! (nah! I'll leave that one to other "bloggetteers slash authors")...



Anyway - I just KNOW there must be growth out there when I read this...

Recession "Over" As Consumer Bankruptcies On Track To Hit 1.6 Million Total For 2010

Excerpt: "Overall, YTD bankruptcies of 1,046,449 are 11% higher than compared to the same period last year, as America revels in its newly found post-recession reality by going straight to bankruptcy go and not passing go."

See that people? As soon as all you laggards out there file for your damn bankruptcies, and strategically default on your mortgages, this problem will be solved... Then you can get on a blog and tell everyone how it's done!

Of course, there are some UN-ANOINTED types who believe "the economy" isn't just what asset prices, (especially equity indices) happen to be doing on the last 5 ticks of the daily tape...





Learn How Out-of-the-Money Butterflies Create Profits Trading SPX

Excerpt: "If the S&P 500 breaks out over the 1150 area with strong volume we could move higher to test recent highs; however, if the 1040 area were to give way to the bears the bullish parade would end. At this point in time, it is too early to tell which side is going to win this battle. The monthly chart of SPX tells the entire story."

So who's right? This guy?


He's the greatest...







Or these things over here (Who convince weak minds that somehow it's all for real)...




In any case, you'd better get your HUSTLE on, and find out... Because nobody in Washington or on Wall St. misses a day without giving you a new song and dance...










210 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 210   Newer›   Newest»
Jennifer said...

Huh... looks like yesterday didn't happen. Why can't BOJ intervention buy my portfolio more purchasing power? 1170 here we come.

Anonymous said...

BTW, EURUSD back at 1.38.

Prashant

AmenRa said...

It's all BS. QE1 didn't help or the economy would be in much better shape. It only helped the balance sheets of the financial institutions. It never made it to the consumer. He had to say something to stop the impending downturn. The Fed meeting was too far away.

call me ahab said...

excellent post CV- especially like this:

" . . .large-scale asset purchases improved the economy and that further buying is likely to help more."

of course


also- in overnight news we have:

"Japanese stocks lead markets higher after rate cut"

The BOJ said it would guide the overnight call rate at a range of zero to 0.1 percent, against the previous target of 0.1 percent.

now that's aggressive (all in with a .1 change)

no wonder everyone's excited

AmenRa said...

Gold is on a tear (thanks BB). DXY getting slaughtered. Oil becoming unaffordable (for the consumer). AUDJPY down (no rate increase), EURJPY up, Yen up (Japan FinMin whatcha gonna do).

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab,

Too funny - the .1%.

I thought the top was in on the EUR/USD. Guess not.

The headlines lately are getting more ridiculous by the day. If it wasn't for how this all ends, I'd be laughing.

call me ahab said...

mchappy-

my thought- is they should have eased in with a .005 cut-

I guess they opted for "shock and awe"-

lol

call me ahab said...

The headlines lately are getting more ridiculous by the day

no doubt- surreal isn't it?

CV said...

It's about time for my weekly reminder on why I shouldn't buy SILVER COINS...

call me ahab said...

CV-

melt value of a silver quarter is $4

AmenRa said...

On second thought maybe BB knows the ISM Non Manufacturing is really bad and todays POMO wouldn't be able to stop the downturn.

call me ahab said...

world wide currency debasement-

yeah!

karen said...

good morning! CV, laughing, you are too much! Ahab, surreal is my word : )

mcHAPPY said...

1147 and 1152 would be .618 and .786 retrace of 1157-1132.

As usual lately, you can also make the argument because the chart shows it, we had an ABC off 1157-1132.

Answers will be known shortly.

As Ra states, a piss-poor ISM could certainly be a good kick off to another leg down.

How long do people think Ireland can keep going? When is their next bond auction?

AmenRa said...

HAHAHA BOJ Intervention Half Life Drop To 3 Hours

from ZH

call me ahab said...

just put a small limit order in for SDS-

just to see the fade worthiness of this rally

karen said...

Fun !! http://macro-man.blogspot.com/

AmenRa said...

Well at least they weren't able to break the 5 1-min candle rule. So there's a chance for the bears after the onslaught.

AmenRa said...

Karen

That was funny.

karen said...

15 min spx candles looking like repeat of friday.. if so down swoosh coming..

karen said...

saved in last minute! not looking like friday now. nevermind !!

call me ahab said...

ISM-

bte! the good news keeps rolling in

AmenRa said...

ahab

That's bad for QE2...

call me ahab said...

Ra-

the way I see it- if you have billionaires buying gold by the ton- you have to wonder if it's just a trade-

or a "no conviction" purchase- zero faith in recovery and the financial system

AmenRa said...

ahab

If you're buying by the ton then that's not a trade. That's a "Get my money out now" type of move.

AmenRa said...

Back in a few.

karen said...

That Gisele wanting payment in euros was actually a fake story.. but what if people did start asking for payment in gold? It's not out of question..

call me ahab said...

or silver quarters-

you know- real money- like when we were kids

call me ahab said...

have to roll out-

all have a good day

Jennifer said...

Interesting...NFLX is down today.

karen said...

JJC making new 52 week high.. that's reflation for ya..

karen said...

PIMCO

El-Erian: Until established members give up some entitlements, the IMF cannot be as effective as it needs to be. Change will take years.

Me: ???

CV said...

@ahab

"if you have billionaires buying gold by the ton- you have to wonder if it's just a trade"

---

Think of it this way...

- I've heard that all the mined ABOVE GROUND gold in the world would barely fill 2 Olympic Sized swimming pools...

- An Olympic Swimming Pool contains about 600,000 gallons (of water)...

- Gold weighs 19.32 grams/cm3; a gallon is 3,785.612 cm3; 3,785.612 cm3 * 19.32 g/cm3 = 73,062.3 grams or 73.06 kg...

- On that math, ONE GALLON OF GOLD weighs about 73.06 kg * 2.2 lb/kg = 161 lbs

- times 1,200,000 (two Olympic sized swimming pools) = 193,200,000 pounds of gold

- divided by 2,000 pounds (one ton) = 96,600 tons of gold, above ground, in the world, at present...

--NOW... To BUY a ton of gold...--

- There are 2,000 pounds in a ton & 16 ounces in a pound...

- Therefore, there are 32,000 ounces in a ton...

- If the spot price of gold were $1350/oz., it would require $43,200,000 to buy a TON...

- As of 2008, there were approx 1125 "billionaires" in the world... IN early '09, the number had been reduced to 793...

- Let's call it a "median" of 1,000 "billionaires", at present...

- If you had a billion dollars (some have MULTI BILLIONS), at $43,200,000 per ton... You could buy 23 tons of gold...

- If everyone did; (100% conversion - which would be damn near impossible)... Then, you have 1,000 people buying 23 tons of gold each (at $1,350 spot price)... That would equate to 23,000 TONS of gold off the market and into the vaults of the richest people in the world...

- That's still only a quarter of the entire above ground gold supply... (If you're combining the ENTIRE net worth, assuming their assets are liquid, of the largest concentration of private individual wealth in the world... Which is probably about 99.9% of all the private wealth worldwide)...

In any case... that kind of FRAMES any argument about how wealthy people might be able to manage to manipulate gold prices...

MY speculation is that it's going to require a DERIVATIVE function to inflate the price of gold much farther than what it is now...

karen said...

15 min candle now indicates screeching halt for spx.. let's see what next 15 min brings..

CV said...

@ahab

Or you could think of it this way...

If the price of gold were to drop back down to $400 and ounce (a third of the current price)...

Then, those same billionaires could buy up to about 80% of the entire supply...

Now THAT would be a problem (to some governments)...

A group of them could get together and start their own country...

Anonymous said...

What is really strange to me is how, over the past month, Treasuries moved in tandem with equities. That is what I used to call a melt-up preceding a sharp decline.

Lately, I don't know if it's a melt up or a paradigm shift resulting from large scale intervention.

Additionally, I used to use the yen as a risk indicator. Now, there is too much intervention and trading based on potential intervention.

karen said...

mrtopstep: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/6bivg9

mcHAPPY said...

LB deserves a gold star today. He nailed yesterday.

Lord John said...

Jennifer,
So I can be a little better prepared for the inevitable this time, what is the alternate route to TDAmeritrade?
Thanks,
John

karen said...

1156 seems to be a brick wall.. (watch these famous last words!)

karen said...

Anon, you can say that again.

CV.. your gold analysis (above) was spot on! pure genius : )

mcHappy, the only thing LB deserves is a slap in the face! LOL (And, btw.. he has been wrong on the euro and gold for ever!!)

karen said...

great tweet from hipstermusic -

from rosie: imagine running a policy aimed at getting people to spend money based on an artificial level of asset values. (pure fuckery)

karen said...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/three-simple-trends-you-should-not-be-fighting/

CV said...

@karen (on gold analysis)

It's the same thing I do all the time with fitness...

people get all wild and crazy sometimes about losing 5 pounds, or gaining muscle... yada, yada...

I like to just take a simple mathematical approach...

- carbs & protein are 4 calories
- fat is 9 calories
- 1 met (metabolic unit), will burn this ratio of fat vs. sugar energy
- 9 mets of intensity will burn more calories, but change the ratio of energy utilization...

One has to look at WHOLE arguments to figure out what is crap, and what is realistic...

karen said...

Convertbond

Long-Term Capital Management 3? God Bless America: Hearing John Meriewether is out with a new hedge fund, a global macro strategy.

mcHAPPY said...

At some point something has to give:

At what point to the T's crash?

OR

At what point do equities crash?

The 10yr and 2yr yield are actually DOWN today.

CV said...

@karen

That's why I DETEST all these maneuvers by the Fed & by the Obama Administration to attempt to disguise reality, and not let a fair market decide what the true price of assets should be...

If we SHOULD be broke... Let's be broke...

If prices SHOULD be to the moon, let 'em go to the moon...

But these maneuvers are like a trainer with an overweight client just sticking a rubber suit on him and telling him to go sit in the sauna for two hours, and not eat anything for a week, then come back later and saying...

"See? I got you fit! You lost 10 pounds in a week"...

You're damn lucky you didn't KILL the person...

And if you did that with ALL your clients, you'd probably actually KILL a few...

Jennifer said...

Lord John,

I don't know why this works, but it does (or used to, I haven't checked it in a while.) Mike Morgan, the former host of the blog Behind Enemy Lines, passed this out in September of 2008 and it worked well during all high traffic times in '08 and early '09.

www.izone.com

Lord John said...

Thanks Jennifer, I'll check it out.

karen said...

CV.. so when you refer to burning intensity.. is that aerobic vs anaerobic?

short bursts vs. long and steady? what i'm really asking it was is the best route to utilizing stored fat as energy.. for me it has been don't eat and exercise at moderate intensity for prolonged hours..

as an example, setting out on a 2 or 3 hour beach walk with a small growl in my stomach.. i actually come home feeling great.. not starving at all and am only craving a light nutritional meal.

karen said...

so much for my brick wall : ) suspected those would be famous last words..

mcHAPPY said...

I'm going to start doing the opposite of EWI. I can guarantee you it would be much more profitable. Oh wait, that would imply their 'objective' market analysis produced profits. lol.

CV said...

@karen

"is that aerobic vs anaerobic?"

YES - And the "ratios" that I refer to depend COMPLETELY on one's METABOLIC PROFILE...

Sure, there are "averages" & "medians"... But for instance, a highly trained aerobic athlete (like a cyclist or a marathon runner), will have a very high anaerobic threshhold...

It's a training effect that results in many things including:

- volume capacity & function of hemoglobin
- capillary vascularization
- lung alveoli function
- ventricular ejection fractions
- mitochondria levels
- insulin response
- atmospheric oxygen density
- & other factors

GENIUSES who have blog profiles named after poodles try to dispute me, ad hoc, on these issues, but FRANKLY... that's the case...

Bottom line is: (without "knowing" a person)...

Take a 6.5 MET median to start with (in terms of constant output intensity) and you ought to be roughly in a ballpark to burn a decent amount of fat...

It doesn't make sense to drop your workout intensity down to 2 METS (which would be almost 100% fat burning), because of the TIME it would take to reach the desired total caloric output...

It would be too boring... But, if someone wanted to say, walk their dog for 5 hours a day, they'd burn a hell of a lot of fat in an efficient way...

The only way to EXPEDIATE the "furnace" of buring a high ratio of fat to sugar (or protein cannibalization), would be to do a lot if HIGH INTERVAL training...

But then you'd need probably a whole year or more to build up the FURNACE (as described in those bullet points above)...

karen said...

CV.. excellent synopsis.. it fits perfectly with what i believe i have learned about myself at various levels of fitness over the years.. thanks for sharing that!!

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/who-is-john-galt/

on gold.. some of you may want to read that..

karen said...

mrtopstep

RT @Eubiquitous: Ystrdy & 2day SO FAR WE HAVE BROKE BOTH LST WK's LO & HI by sml amounts; LAST WEEK's LOW 1127.30 LAST WEEK'S HIGHS 1153.50

CV said...

@karen

"as an example, setting out on a 2 or 3 hour beach walk with a small growl in my stomach.. i actually come home feeling great.. not starving at all and am only craving a light nutritional meal..."

---

See... That's it right there (in your case)...

You said, 2-3 hours... That's VERY LONG DURATION (low intensity), which is the key to utilizing a very high RATIO of fat energy (where ATP is created, in real time, using the process of the Krebs cycle)...

The reason you don't feel "hungry" at the end is because you haven't depleted sugar stored in muscle cells (or, have only depleted a very little of it)...

That means that you have a lot of fatty acids that continue to float around in your system (as an after training effect), but more importantly, you don't crave carbs (because you effectively haven't depleted many)...

Most people would LIKE these effects to happen right away, but they don't... ALSO - most people don't have time for 2-3 hour walks...

What you SHOULD do (just to get an even better sense of where you're at)... Is buy a heart rate monitor... Check your heart rate near the beginning of the walk, then near the end as well...

Try to keep your OUTPUT as constant as possible...

Basically, I'd bet you'd find that even though you didn't "feel" like you were working any harder after 3 hours, your heart rate would nevertheless be up a few notches higher than where you started...

That is a sign that your body is needing to cull other energy sources (sugar)... The reason for the increase in heart rate is due to the OXYGEN DEMANDS to process the lactic acid (produced in sugar burning) to pyruvic acid, IN ADDITION to the normal oxygen demands of the Krebs cycle itself...

karen said...

conorsen - Interesting theory: China selling USDJPY to get it below 80, crush Japanese exporters, and help out Chinese exporters

Currency wars! watch out..

Short Crone said...

CV, I'm a big believer in the Sorta High Interval Training...helps me avoid feeling crappy later.

CV said...

BTW... IMO... Polar make the best heart Rate monitors (if you're ever in the market for one)...

For your purposes, I'd probably recommend either the:

- Polar FT80G1 GPS Fitness Heart Rate Monitor

- Polar RS300X G1 GPS Running Computer Heart Rate Monitor

http://www.polarusa.com/us-en/

CV said...

@short crone

Fitness goals & programs are as specific as choosing combinations at a well stocked salad bar...

Even specialized athletes can go through a dozen different training periodization cycles within a year, or a season...

CV said...

IOW - There are more "training routines" than shoes in karens closet :-)

AmenRa said...

Not possible...



:-)

karen said...

Thanks for the recommendations, CV, LOL! tho my shoe collection is at a standstill for now : )

karen said...

I am afraid to post Sinclair's latest but here goes.. (btw, i am feeling light headed so close to 11K.)

http://jsmineset.com/2010/10/05/mortgage-backed-cdos-hit-the-fan/

CV said...

Paul Farrell Explains Why The Fed-Wall Street Complex Will Self Destruct By 2012

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paul-farrell-explains-why-fed-wall-street-complex-will-self-destruct-2012

---

Follows listing of some of the biggest hypocrites in the world:

Bernanke: “I don’t anticipate any serious failures among large internationally active banks.” Wow, was he ever wrong.

Billionaire Ken Fisher: “This year will end in the plus column ... so keep buying.” Main Street lost trillions on advice like this.

‘Mad Money’ Jim Cramer: “Bye-bye bear market, say hello to the bull.”

Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen: “The fear priced into stocks is likely to abate as recession fears fade.” Soon after, Goldman was essentially bankrupt.

Congressman Barney Frank: “Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound.”

Barron’s: “Home prices about to bottom.” Three years later they still haven’t

Worth: “Emerging markets are the global investors’ safe haven.”

Kiplinger’s: “Stock investors should beat the rush to the banks.” Costly advice.

Bernie Madoff: “It’s virtually impossible to violate the rules.” But it’ll happen again.

CV said...

In a minute, I'm going to put up a chart, or so, to tell you what CV is looking at right now...

ben22 said...

was stopped out a even today, have re-entered short already with a new stop. Glen Neely, w/out giving too much of his stuff away:

"It is common, when trying to "pick a top" that it takes 2-3 attempts. Based on increasing S&P volatility and the fact all upside price/time targets have been met, we can now more comfortably Short on weakness without the need for a large sell-off to activate our Short."


GTLA

Andy T said...

This is AWESOME!

karen said...

mrtopstep video:

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/05/mr-topstep-intraday-charts-1005-no-gaps-left-nqspx/

Glen Neely said...

ben22,

I'm going to sue your ass for Trademark infringement.

karen said...

The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities surpassed 9% for the first time in September, according to analytics firm Trepp.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/05/trepp-cmbs-delinquency-rate-tops-9-for-first-time-in-september

DL said...

QE will fix everything.

CV said...

Here's what I'm looking at...

new chart in thread

Could searching for this level be more a function of MOMENTUM indicators (rather than price)...

Although certainly the eventual price level will be important... This gives an alternate look on the TIME needed to reach the price (whether it arrives sooner or later)...

CV said...

In any case...

I might be looking to add shorts here when I see the 60 min charts hit in the 75-80 range on the RSI...

ben22 said...

@McHappy,

re: EWI, the first step is giving up on their current count because it has been wrong for months, it's not a five wave down impulsive move off the Apirl highs, and this is also not a double correction in wave 2, the fact that they stick with it this long is sad. I don't claim to be some EW master however, we identified here several months ago that it was not a five wave down impulsive move off the April highs, AT has had better counts for over 12 months now.

karen said...

I think you are right on that, CV, for get price and watch RSI..

karen said...

Andy, I would find this "awesome" too if my longs were participating in the melt up..

Cold Steel said...

How are Mr Shorty's Nether Regions, do you think?
I've been probing them all day....

ben22 said...

I found a cool website last night that some people here may get some value out of by following the sites COT spreadsheets:

http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/

It's also good to review the data when people make ill informed opinion claims on what traders are doing.

Two other things:

1. it appears Kenny shut his site down? What's up with that?

2. I've wondered a lot the last few years how long the Fed would keep at it with their policies despite the fact that they are failing, it seems Japan is willing to go for decades so I'd assume ours will do the same, so, shouldn't we change the phrase to:

The Fed can stay irrational longer than a nation can stay solvent.

karen said...

CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. (CBG) announced plans to sell $350 million of 10-year notes as it disclosed discussions with lenders to refinance $1.5 billion of debt outstanding under current credit agreements.

The note-sale proceeds will go toward such a refinancing, as will $500 million of cash on hand. To complete the refinancing, the company would need $650 million of loans under new credit lines. The commercial real-estate brokerage is also seeking to get a new $700 million line.

karen said...

CBG has a pe over 45.. pays no div and is up over 2% on the day..

DL said...

"...keep at it with their policies ...it seems Japan is willing to go for decades"

* * * * *

I have the sense that the Japanese government is getting a little more desperate that they have been. More willing to tell the Central Bank to buy junk assets.

karen said...

guess what hasnt made a new high? DIA

hasn't beat last week's high of 109.52, yet.

karen said...

same with Qs, btw..

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben 1:21

I hear you. I know leading diagonals are extremely rare but it does fit every criteria (i'll need to triple check, but I'm pretty sure). Maybe in a year or two we can look back with certainty and say it was or was not. I'd love someone to be able to say no it is not and this is why because I can't let it go. Either way, minor 3 or C down, bears will not have too much longer to wait. I'm more fond of EWI for the EWFF and EWT (the last 2 were brutal) than the STU lately.

@Glenn Neely

Take it easy on ol' Ben22. He provided some good advertisement for your company i.e. I'm going to take you up on the trial offer.

karen said...

Now that he has loaded up the truck with gold...

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s push for European fiscal prudence amid tepid growth and sovereign-debt burdens is “liable to send the euro zone into a deflationary spiral,” billionaire investor George Soros said.

ben22 said...

McHappy,

I haven't even really paid that close attention to exactly how EWI has this labeled the last several months because I thought their count was wrong but are they calling it an LD? I guess that would fit given the observation that LD's in wave 1 position usuallys retrace 78.6% but I must have overlooked them specifically saying that's what they thought it was.
Been a little cranky toward them since the Beatles EWT letter.

ben22 said...

DL,

it does seem that way doesn't it, re: Japanese Fed, however, I think there comes a point where they will self preserve but maybe they won't, our fed is eventually going to have to face the same thing, they are loading their balance sheet up with garbage in the name of trying to expand credit, will they really take it so far as to put the Fed as an entity at risk?

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

The LD is the mcHAPPY count. I'm sure it is out there but I don't think I've seen anyone else talking about it.

They have it labeled a 5. Others have it a 3.

If you go through the EWP section on LD, that chart structure pretty much nails the criteria.

I'll go home and check again though later.

mcHAPPY said...

The LD would also be why so much confusion as they are hybrids.

DL said...

Ben22,

No doubt that Bernanke had to make all sorts of promises to Obama in order to get reappointed.
I do think there are limits, however, to how far he'll go.

Leftback said...

Two markets today.

Divvies, down or flat.
Turds, banks and momo vehicles, up several percentage points.

Could this be a squeeze...?? Ya think...?

The long bond looks awfully lonely. No buyers.

ben22 said...

thanks McHappy, I didn't remember EWI saying it was an LD, probably more likely since they don't have it! ROR

:-)

If any of you had a visit with Mr. Steel this morning like I did you might need a laugh, well this was pretty funny if you haven't already seen it:

It's the second clip in the thread:

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/union-irony-and-obamas-kryptonite.html

and while I'm at it....anyone getting in on that hot mexican debt deal?

karen said...

tradefast - if 2 year treasury note yield falls to zero percent the price will rise 0.83%

me- it is getting ridiculous.. no sane person would be a buyer here.. only the fed.

ben22 said...

also, McHappy, enjoy the Neely updates, it's getting wild today, apparently many people were very confused about his trading calls from yesterday so there is some drama today....always something I guess.

ben22 said...

Karen,

maybe I misunderstand you but I find those reaching for yield in muni's or junk to be the insane one's (a minority view, to be sure), it seems perfectly rational to me to buy 2 years if one is trying to protect capital in a deflationary environment...

CV said...

@ben22 (2:06)

Did you say "hot"? Did you say "Mexican"?

http://www.weallscheme.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/ines-sainz-ass.jpg

Cue the FERGIE... NO! DON'T!

Leftback said...

ben,

we are in a market that experiences D waves and R waves.

at the beginning of a D wave (spring 2010), buy Treasuries.
at the beginning of an R wave, sell Treasuries. (YOU ARE HERE)

on the average, we may see indices go sideways, have low inflation, and the JNK might just return 8-10% and dividends return 5-6%.

for me this is a thesis that is worth 20% of my money, which is what I have allocated. if things change I can adjust.

Jennifer said...

McHappy -- I think the LD is also Alphahorn's count, right? I can't follow everything on his charts but his overall calls have been pretty good. http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/

Another ex-girlfriend said...

That looks like my ass.
I kno, right?

karen said...

ben, have to disagree.. let the fed buy treasures and buy gold instead : )

2 year yield is at record low.. the price appreciation of those bonds is at a dead end (even more so with a declining dollar!).. and there are safer places to put your cash at a yield less than .5%.. FHFS. (i won't tell you what that stands for, LOL.)

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, Jennifer. I've never checked out that site. Will do now.

ben22 said...

leftback,

you trade, most people don't, or can't. A winning strategy for those others has been rolling over tbills since 1999, you've handily outperformed stocks with next to no risk at all and not much work either. I would expect for most that remains a better strategy than speculation over the next 3-4 years.

when i say insane, I'm talking about the masses that are out there thinking they are "all set" with those bonds regardless of what happens moving forward, not bang traders that know how to get out with a profit before the exit door gets crowded.

Jennifer said...

I wonder what the market stats are for two back-to-back POMO days. I think I already know. Cold steel cuts deep when you're not at home.

ben22 said...

karen,

when the argument is approached from a "price appreciation" perspective, yes, I can't beat what you are saying, but I'm thinking many are buying those bonds with the last thing on their mind being how much higher the prices can go...

I recall not being hired by a wealthy individual when I suggested he place over $5 million in Tbills in early 07 to protect the capital, he told me he "couldn't make any money doing that" ....and didn't understand that wasn't why I was telling him to do it.

mcHAPPY said...

Jennifer,

It is almost like this guy is in my mind. He obviously did it better than me as he's been long since 1039. My vacation at the end of August and early September messed up a lot of things for me financially speaking - but don't tell Mrs. mcHAPPY I said that. Also, the vacation was worth the subsequent pain.

karen said...

that jon stewart video of the town hall rebuttal is hard to watch.. so depressing : (

Leftback said...

place over $5 million in Tbills in early 07 to protect the capital,

GOOD CALL. I bet he wishes he had done that.

This is why LB is now much less aggressive than in the 2000s, more to lose. So every risk is calibrated, and position sizing is important. Above all, I like to think about playing defense first.

karen said...

ben, there are 1 year CDs paying triple the two year treasury (FDIC insured, too, LOL.)

ben22 said...

FDIC insured... hehehehehe, t-bills are so much safer than cash it's not even funny, mostly what we call cash is really just debt.

FDIC can't even cover the deposits at the top four, not even close, nor do we know if or how often they've had to borrow from treasury since this all started. I just don't have the confidence in the system or the potent directors that some do, I'd rather be safe than sorry.

not to mention, I'd rather have access to my money every 90 days in a time like this as well, I like being liquid, if I cash out that CD prior to the 1 yr my interest is gone.

ben22 said...

leftback,

so here's something sort of funny (to me) so you know how there are a lot of tea partiers out there crying "too much government" while riding to the rally on their govt paid for scooter, or whatever....well, I often need to make very clear to new clients what it is I intend on telling them once they hire me because most people dont' want an advisor like me, I'm not the 60/40 equity/bond dont' worry about it dude. When I explain the tbill strategy since 1999 to clients and then tell them that most investors would have never stuck to the plan because we had a huge bull run from 03-07 and they would have asked me every day to buy stocks, nearly 100% of the time people say to me:

"well I wouldnt' do that, if it's safe I'd just stick with it"

people are so full of shit.

karen said...

oops on the euro!! every currency except the dollar is benefiting from the yen move.. i wonder why?! not! gotta luv zirp!

mcHAPPY said...

Actually, looking at the Alphahorn it is not exactly what I had going as the LD in my count.

My LD ended at the 1040.78 on May 24.

That move June 21-July 1st screams X wave to me.

I believe Daneric is calling the 1010.91 the end of 1 as well. I don't like it. Didn't like it then, do not like it now. But seriously, WTF do I know.

What I do like about the quick look at the Alphahorn is the technical indicators. That is another area I wish to learn more about.

Leftback said...

"people are so full of shit."

Actually they are just a raging storm of conflicts and emotions.
Thats why they suck at investing.

ben22 said...

and speaking of tea party, I have to share a story with you all a little later on about a client meeting last night, some general history on these folks, and the fact that when I pulled up to their house last night they had two giant tea party signs in the front yard.

Also, my good buddy that works at WFC in DE had a one hour meeting with Christine O'donnell today as she keeps her campaign money at his bank and they came in to drop off deposits today and to review the accounts, I guess one of the check memo's was: Kick liberal ass. He is a DE resident and a pretty major DEM, she asked him at the end of the meeting if she could have his vote, ....he told her he lived in PA.

mcHAPPY said...

"people are so full of shit"

Truer words have never been spoken.

Have I mentioned I've nailed every top and bottom since 1997?

Leftback said...

Christine will do well in the chicken farming areas of the state. When she says "I am like you" she isn't talking to the intelligentsia.

karen said...

DIA made beat last week's high.. surely the Q's did too... won't even bother looking.

ben22 said...

lol, not a lot of people know about all the chicken farms in slower lower.

indeed, there are not a lot of TP'ers up north here, the question is what will the Indies do, a lot of people seemed peeved that HR called Chris Coon's his "pet"

in general though, there are just a lot of angry people everywhere

CV said...

I'd like to see a hard charge into 4:00 (to 1170, or so)...

I'll watch the momentum indicators to see where they go... But I'd be willing to short an exaggerated move...

karen said...

only 50 pts to 11k.. should be a cake walk...

Jennifer said...

I thought this was interesting..
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/10/gld-could-gold-have-a-mini-crash-sure-.html

CV said...

Laughably - I'm only half watchin this right now...

I'm busy with my NFL "week 5 picks" thread...

karen said...

angry people everywhere? you can say that again.. BreakingNews

Police: Man shoots 3 people, 2 fatally, in Ill. and Ind. after asking them about honey bees - NBC Chicago http://bit.ly/bNauiX

ben22 said...

I wouldnt' expect a big change by the close so it looks like we should get a dow theory buy signal, I believe the last strict example came in mid/late March, fwiw.

karen said...

3.5 should cap this, i guess:

Zillow: 30-year FRMs hit record low at 4.16% http://goo.gl/fb/DsRC8

ben22 said...

Jennifer,

Kid Dynamite has had some really good posts at his blog lately about ETF dynamics, I'm learning a lot from him.

karen said...

sorry, one more witticism: alaidi

if everybody thinks QE2 is already priced in then why r they selling $USDX like they just learnd smthng new ?

Jennifer said...

Ben, thanks, I haven't been over there in a while. Need to think the blogroll ranks since I hadn't noticed Kenny was gone either!

Jennifer said...

I'm glad I'm not in the workforce right now...the women's professional attire I'm seeing on CNBC is really bizarre. I hated that bow look in the '80s -- it should not come back.

karen said...

Jenn.. i think you are mistaken.. there is no professional attire on cnbc.. except for one profession, perhaps : )

Jennifer said...

Good point!

karen said...

sorry! that was bad of me.. i'm sure some of the cnbc girls are good!

Rachel Maddow said...

@karen (3:02)

Well that makes sense, because it's BUSH's FAULT that there are honey bees in the first place...

ben22 said...

yeah sort of a bummer about Kenny's, he was pretty good at TA, but he was such a spaz, he'll probably come back in a week or so. His site used to have the most hard core wave discussions going on the web, not sure that is happening anywhere these days, in 2008 EW was unreal, I watched even average analysts call the market week after week to the decimal, now when you go to Dan's site it's all about how EW "doesn't work", which they confuse with someone being married to a count.

corrections are a real biatch

karen said...

LOL!! the only uncertainly is whether we tap or exceed 11k!

McCulley: The world economic outlook is fraught with unusually high uncertainty.

http://bit.ly/aicbsL

DL said...

137 comments.

If the market were down 2% instead of up 2%, there'd be twice as many comments.

CV said...

12% rise in a major stock market index within the span of 5 weeks...

Happens all the time in BULL markets... RIGHT?

Ralph L. said...

I think it's pretty clear CNBC does not employ a stylist, I always thought the morning crew with the ties but no jackets looked dumb. What are they supposed to be proving with that "look"?

CV said...

@DL

Correction: If Inez'es hip huggers (2:16) were DOWN 2% more, then there'd be 200 comments...

karen said...

DL. we lost some people.. and it seems i've been talking to myself (embarrassingly enough) for weeks on end..

DL said...

karen,

People all over the world are hanging on your every word.

Cold Steel said...

If the market were down 2% instead of up 2%, there'd be twice as many comments.

But there would be less appearances by me behind the shorts....

Leftback said...

"People all over the world are hanging on your every word."

Or at least one of them is, angel....

ben22 said...

well, P/C was at 1.00 at 10 am today and it's stay close or over that all day.

last week commerical traders put on a net bearish position on S&P, it appears they continue to add today though large speculators remain net bullish on the banking index, an interesting dynamic.

ben22 said...

we lost 3-4 people that used to post here regularly, also, wasn't this labeled a "bear blog" a long time ago?

Leftback said...

he Japanese multi-plunger 80% top to bottom drop in the Nikkei is now probably officially off the table due to Monster QE.

But we haven't seen our last crash by any means. Only a Goldilocks 1-2% growth keeps this market going. Too hot, too cold, and the bears are going to be in the house - and traders will spill a lot of porridge.

CV said...

@karen

I doubt we lost anyone...

The markets, for sometime now, have been controlled by BOTS... They're in the BORING pattern of retracing and/or re-drawing TECHNICAL BOUNDARIES...

To most (who aren't TRADERS)... That's dull & unexciting... Arguably - it's dull & unexciting to traders as well...

There are a lot of LURKERS here...

But what are they going to contribute if there's nothing, really, to say about a market that they feel is CONTROLLED by TPTB...

That's for OTHER BLOGS to worry about...

Not here... I'm just waiting for my fish...

CV said...

Somebody remind me for the "n"th time why it was a bad idea to buy SILVER COINS over the summer...

karen said...

the HYG:LQD chart has an interesting look.. take it out six months..

CV said...

@DL

Actually... I'm sitting here holding my breath waiting for some poodle groomer to come along and call a technical turn in the markets...

Then I'll KNOW... FOR SURE... Which way to go...

ROR

karen said...

CV, my father had a tobacco & news shop in a retirement community near the Jersey Shore.. guess what he accumulated? he'd go thru the register at the end of every day.. my mother has the bags in a safe place. LOL.

karen said...

CV.. your poodle groomer comment has me in crying : )

Jennifer said...

I had my kids go through the last year's worth of spare change we'd accumulated in the jar by the door a week or two ago....sadly, only one good dime in the whole lot, and they now know that their mother is completely crazy.

Lord John said...

Karen,
In Ocean County? That's close to where I live.

I-Man said...

Something.

:)

Just trying out I and I lurkage...

CV said...

@karen

Smart Man!

Pre 1964... Good as gold...

In fact... BETTER THAN GOLD...

Why?

Gold at all time highs... Silver? Hasn't even gotten to 50% of all time highs...

Perception & Utility

While the "so called" rich are trying to get their hands on as much gold as possible...

The POOR MANS gold is going to be SILVER... That's the BARTER metal (trust me - it'll be used that way - and OH - how convenient that there is already some around that's perfectly chopped up into small increments)...

Copper too...

SAVE YOUR NICKELS PEOPLE!

CV said...

@Jennifer

it's not USELESS anyway...

Just put the quarter & dimes into rolls - take them to the local bank...

and ask for NICKEL rolls...

Look people...

a dollars worth of NICKLES is worth $1.22 (don't take my word for it - I'm just a dumbass that works here)...

http://www.coinflation.com/

karen said...

John, have we had this discussion before? Yes, Ocean County.. He had the shop in the late 70s early 80s.. and they would pull all the silver from the register everyday.. what town are you in? my mother is in Toms River.

CV said...

...and how long has CV been saying this now?

Lord John said...

I asked you at one point but I must've have missed your reply. I'm not too far away, Avon By The Sea in Monmouth County.

CV said...

Probably getting to be a good time to short the banks...

This is your typical FRONT RUN (before earnings reporting) of the bank share prices...

Look at C, BAC, all the crap banks in the first quarter months over about the last 6 earnings season reporting...

It's like CRUDE THURSDAYS revisited...

The algos aren't even creative anymore...

karen said...

Avon by-the-Sea is my favorite NJ beach town!! Passed thru with my mother once visiting Cape May.. So much nicer than the Seaside Hts/Park area.. You can't even compare.. lucky you! At least it was a sleepy place in 1980, or so..

karen said...

Oops, John, my mistake.. Avalon! was the sleepy quaint place I passed thru..

karen said...

businessinsider

Felix Salmon with more than you'll ever want to know about the government trying to extricate itself from AIG. http://read.bi/cP5Q

Lord John said...

Thanks, yes I love it. It's still quiet and no boardwalk craziness like Seaside Hts.

Lord John said...

Avon is actually pretty similar to Avalon.

DL said...

While we're on the topic of the Jersey shore,

where does "Snooky" hang out?

ben22 said...

@CV,

just thought of something....you will be able to go ice fishing on your property in the winter.


lol

72bat said...

aaah fond memories of cape may

Lord John said...

Probably in NY, where she's from.

DL said...

Outer banks beats the hell out of the Jersey shore.

karen said...

and, John, my father was raised in Belmar.. my grandmother's house was across from the Shark River.. right on the main road.. I would sleep in the sun porch ; ) In their semi-retirement, my grandparents had the Hallmark Card Shop in town.. but i have vague memories of the soda fountain type diner they had before that.. Anyway, my father was in the Marine Corps so I didn't live in NJ till later. Once I spent the summer with them in Belmar, tho.. It sure beat Kansas!

ben22 said...

snookie is more likely to be found at a farm than at the shore, fairly certain she was studying to become a vet.

I "came out" a while back as a Jersey shore fan

karen said...

I've never seen one episode! Gotta out there as fast as I could! one way ticket to CA at age 18.

karen said...

back shortly.

Lord John said...

Karen,
I'm about a mile from Belmar, I think I might know the shop you're talking about.

DL,
It's not a competition, I'm sure it's nice there too.

ben22 said...

I like all the beaches around here, MD, DE and NJ, some are just more for adults than others. Never been to OBX, heard its really nice

I-Man said...

Seen both, and not really a fair comparison...

Miss east coast beach sometimes, then I go to hawaii or where Karen lives, and I remember why I left...

I could do sebastian if I had to... maybe hatteras, wrights, folly...

Ok, so east coast does have some good beach...




How'd everyone like the action today? Some good rips, good fib action on the 1min, shoulda made more, but was ninja. Took alot of 5 tick trades today, not my fav, but I-Man'll take it.

All praises to Jah.

ben22 said...

would have liked it better if I was levered long!

ROR.....

BND was up two pennies, so I have that going for me.

karen said...

East coast has spectacular beaches!! I also love Island Beach State Park.. down to Barnegat Inlet.. Love all NJ's rivermouths, bays, inlets.. spectacular really.. I just didn't like Toms River or that section of the peninsula.. for me, it wasn't a good fit.. and, I do prefer the climate in Southern California.. mild winters, low-humidity summers : )

Gotta run but will check back for AR's wrap.. Thanks all!

Leftback said...

Most of my divvies barely budged today. Like it wasn't real....

The indices are leading.

Leftback said...

"the climate in Southern California.. mild winters"

Less clothing..... :-)

ben22 said...

so one stock down on the DOW today...AXP, which got rocked pretty good today

I-Man said...

There were some huge bids and offers getting thrown around in YM today...

Biggest lots I've seen, and they were genuine. (ie, not fake orders placed to fake out the little guy, plenty of that going on too of course.)

Anyhow, I think its natural because we're right around the jan high and post flash crash bounce levels.

A lot of weight getting moved on both sides.

I have to confess to having some fun with the continuation rips today. If I hadnt chased some dumb trades I would've done alot better.

It takes a tough mix of conservative and aggressive to day trade this market well. You have to be ballsy, but not over anxious... its tough.

Tuff, brah.

Serious business.

I-Man said...

Right around Aug highs too...

This whole range in here is serious shit.

Leftback said...

The overnight FX moves must have made the I-balls a lot bigger today.
You can certainly write down the results of some days at 7.30am.

Not taking away anything from the I-profits at Dread Capital. Up Town, Top Rankin...

Now let's see if LB can make some big bucks from his reading of the bond markets..... things have been tad quiet at Schadenfreude. Lots of cash.

I-Man said...

Should probably drop some numbers, on YM anyway, its 10500 - 10900, but cant rule out 11200 and cant rule out 10350.

ben22 said...

an office mate just told me he had "negative luck" which I thought was hilarious.

needless to say this is not the guy that told me aapl was going to "$400 easy"

ben22 said...

I,

how come you don't trade ES anymore?

Leftback said...

The LB number for SPX is 1175, brah.

Already starting to figure out where all the exits are located....

Anonymous said...

Someone told me that in addition to the overnight rate cut by the MoF/BOJ, there are also provisions to purchase equities and real estate (in addition to JGBs).

Japan is so avant garde when it comes to intervention. The United States will surely replicate their temerity, in time.

I-Man said...

Havent even looked at any fx in over a month, casually check the ES contract just to see if we're at any round numbers... havent read any market material, just check the econ calendar each morning to make sure I'm not going to get rocked by some shit I coulda been prepared for.

But the herd mentality is alive and well in the market.

I'm sure if YM is cratering, DXY is goin buck, and vice versa.

I still check the pretty thing on finviz just to see the scope of things.

When I saw the nik was up 2% early this morning I figured we'd get there too, and alot of targets were lining up at 10900. It was long or wrong today. Its rarely that clean.

Leftback said...

Nobody expects yields to break higher. Nobody. No BODY.
Not even the DEATH OF TREASURIES people from last year.

Not Abby Jo, not Louise Yamada, not Cramer, not Jim Caron....
Things that make you go... hmmm

I-Man said...

@ B

Rookies like the I dont get to trade ES. They keep us in YM which is a little more chill, until we earn our spurs. I could do NQ if I wanted to, but I kinda like the mini dow now.

Leftback said...

"It was long or wrong today...."

It usually is when EURUSD and EURJPY are pointing upwards. Some days there doesn't seem to be a lot of carry trade but when we get big moves it is always there in the morning.

All about BUCKY now.

ben22 said...

you guys ever heard of Nick Murray?

what a gem, two years ago I was in DC at a conference and he was the speaker one day, at one point he said, "if you lost all your clients money in the crash so what, there are millions of baby boomers out there, get new clients, lots of money out there to go get"

today I got an e-mail that I can get on a call of his this week titled "restoring client confidence"

that's wall street for you, what a Grade A douche.

Nick Murray said...

Actually I am a Grade B douche. I just copied Ken Fisher.

I-Man said...

Ahh... the joys of wealth management.

PFFFFTTTTTT!

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