Weekend Edition - Week 5 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 14-8-1
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +7
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$630)



NFL Picks (against the spread): 33-25-3
NFL (unit picks differential): +15
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$1,290)

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WEEK 5 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

Wyoming at TCU (-34.5) - 1 unit
Wyoming 0 - TCU 45 (correct +$100) 
Toledo at BOISE STATE (-39) - 1 unit
Toledo 14 - Boise State 59 (correct +$100) 

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Notre Dame (push), Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Penn St.

Week 5 NCAA Results:
Week 5 NCAA Picks: 5-1-1
Week 5 unit pick differential: +2
Week 5 wager total: +$200

Note: CV is being very conservative this week... I've managed to cash positive in EVERY week thus far this season... The last 2 weeks have been especially good... So I'm dialing it down here (risk wise), while the ATS picking ratio comes back into line...

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 WEEK 5 NFL 
BYE WEEK: (New England, Miami, Pittsburgh, Seattle)
I'll offer some more detailed game write-ups as the weekend progresses... The bottom line is that I've been doing very well ATS (against the spread)... I'm overdue for a clunker, and I really don't see a lot of lines that offer much value... Here's a start...

EARLY GAMES

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)
Line: Ravens by 7
I'm siding with the BRONCOS for (0 units)... Old wagering "trend" in effect for this game...





Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)
Line: Jaguars by 1
Nobody circles the wagons like... The Buffalo BILLS for (2 units)... 

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST)
Line: Colts by 8
I think the Chiefs are a farce, but 8 points is a lot... CHIEFS for (0 units)...



Logos Lower - Blogger Sucks
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Lions by 3
The Rams are a covering machine this year, and the Lions are coming off two tough losses... But betting "winless" teams often pays well... LIONS for (0 units)...
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)
Line: Falcons by 3
Falcons won a tough one at home last week... The risk is that they come out flat against an inferior team... But the Browns won too... BROWNS for (0 units)...

Tampa Bay Bucs at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)
Line: Bengals by 6.5
Tampa is coming off a BYE week... Bengals started to show some offense last week... BENGALS for (0 units) in a turnover fest...
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 2.5
The Bears may be looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing loss on national TV... Julius Peppers going against his old squad... I'll take the BEARS for (1 unit)...
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (1:00 EST)
Line: Packers by 2.5
The Packers need to cut out the mistakes if they expect to become bonafide contenders, but they face a Washington team coming off an emotional victory... Neither team has their starting backfield in operation... PACKERS for (0 units)...
New York Football Giants at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)
Line: Texans by 3
If this comes out in BOLD FACE type so be it... Blogger sucks... I'll take the TEXANS here for (1 unit)... A 3 point line basically menas that these teams are identical... Last week, the Giants put Jay Cutler on the sidelines with 9 sacks (as I said teams would eventually do vs. a Mike Martz offense)... It won't matter here, Houston will run Arian Foster down their throat...
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST)
Line: Saints by 8
I'm going with the CARDINALS here for (1 unit)... The Saints haven't won a game by more than 3 points this year (against teams with a combines 1-10 record), and they're laying 8 points on the road to a team they met in the playoffs last year... I know the Cards will be starting rookie Max Hall here, but the line seems kind of ridiculous considering the Saints have really yet to get it in gear this year...

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EST)
Line: Chargers by 6
The Chargers have beaten Oakland 13 straight times now... No reason to think it won't be different now, but Nnadi Asamogha can take away some of Phillip Rivers weapons... He can't take away Antonio Gates though, so I'll go with the Chargers to win, but the RAIDERS to cover for (0 units)...


Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Dallas Cowboys (4:15 EST)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5
The Titans haven't shown much thus far... Chris Johnson, (as I told many at the beginning of the season), got too many carries last year, and is thus, much less effective this year... He got all those yards after the Titans started out winless in 6 games and everyone thought they were a joke... Now, every team stuffs 8 in the box to stop him... He'll get his breakaway runs, but it's much more of a crapshoot... it's especially tough when the Titans fall BEHIND in the score... I really have no idea how this game will turn out... In a strange way, I like the COWBOYS, coming off a bye week, and still needing a win, to cover (0 units)...

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (8:20 EST)
Line: 49ers by 3.5
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (8:35 EST)
Line: Jets by 4

152 comments:

McFearless said...

Thinking about driving over to DE park and placing some bets. That NO game seems like an easy one, maybe too easy.

McFearless said...

two charts from Cobra:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TK-EmwvawiI/AAAAAAAAI0E/XnJxqRnUxDA/s1600-h/1%5B2%5D.png

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TK-En-WiU-I/AAAAAAAAI0M/W6dQml8ADIE/s1600-h/2%5B2%5D.png

McFearless said...

College Gameday ruined by Jim Cramer

And if I see the Christine O "Im You" commercial one more time....the tv is going off for the rest of the weekend (or til Sunday's games, whichever comes first)

"I'll go to Washington, and do what you'd do"

Um, you just lost my vote....thanks.

Anonymous said...

@McF

I haven't put up my call yet for the weekend...

But I'm taking Arizona and the points there... I have to wait and see how the EARLY games are doing...

If Vegas is winning... Then it would be no bet... If the PUBLIC is up... I'd lay some units on the Cardinals...

Right now, the public is backing the Saints to the tune of 80%... I HATE that kind of action (when the bookmakers haven't adjusted the line)... It means they're pretty confident they've conned enough people to bet the Saints (who haven't won a game bat more than 3 points this year despite playing teams with a combined record of 1-10)...

Now they're laying 8 points ON THE ROAD against a team that wants revenge for knocking them out of the playoffs last year?

Be careful there Hoss...

CV

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure that at DE park (and those types)... You can't do single games, you can only do PARLAY cards... Frankly, I don't know if the PARLAY cards are ATS (against the spread), or SU (straight up)... I'd be guessing ATS because then the payouts would be standardized...

Here's the thing...

THERE IS NO VALUE unless the payouts ATS are AT MINIMUM the following:

2 team: 5-2
3 team: 6-1
4 team 10-1

Beyond that is really a lottery ticket... You're good at math so you can figure out that a 3 team parlay probably offers you the best "value" payout (versus "probability" of success)...

I'll tell you why...

I'm in this league of about 90 people that each gets to choose 4 games from the ENTIRE schedule of college and NFL games... EVERY YEAR, the absolut winner of the league comes in with about 63-67% success (all ATS)... That means that most of these people would make money off the "books" by a slim margin (because you'd need 55% to cover the vig and break even)...

I generally hit in the 62-64% range (my above results in 2010 bear that out after 4 weeks - I'm basically "on track")...

Now, consider this... In the league I'm in, one of the picks MUST be an "upset" pick... That is you have to take a team that is GETTING POINTS, and not only covers the spread, but WINS straight up...

Now consider this... CV generally (over the years), hits 11-12 of the UPSET SPECIALS (which again, puts me in the same 65% "hit" rate zone)...

I average about 42-43 "correct" picks (out of 68)... 17 weeks x 4 picks = 68... Which puts me in the same 60-65% "hit" rate zone...

So what I'm saying is this... I can stay ahead of the vig margin by high single digit percent... (Because I can COVER 55% by hitting 60-65%)...

But it is VERY difficult to hit a 4 team parlay on any given week...

I generally only hit 2-3 (out of 17) each week...

So do the math... If I were only to do parlays, I'd LOSE 14 times (out of 17)...

- $1400 (assuming $100 = 1 unit)

I'd win 2-3 times (for a "net" gain of $1800 - $2700)...

Sure, I'd still come out a winner, but it's mostly because I have a decent capacity to sopt TRAP games... Most of the other people in the league average 0-1 "4 win" weeks...

OTOH... My success rate for hitting 3 games is roughly 60%...

Anyway... It's all probability and cash management... (not that different from equity trading)...

If I were doing a a 3 or 4 team PARLAY this week (which I'm NOT)... It would probably look like this:

3 team
BILLS, TEXANS, CARDINALS

4 team
BILLS, TEXANS, CARDINALS, BEARS

Good luck...

CV

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure that at DE park (and those types)... You can't do single games, you can only do PARLAY cards... Frankly, I don't know if the PARLAY cards are ATS (against the spread), or SU (straight up)... I'd be guessing ATS because then the payouts would be standardized...

Here's the thing...

THERE IS NO VALUE unless the payouts ATS are AT MINIMUM the following:

2 team: 5-2
3 team: 6-1
4 team 10-1

Beyond that is really a lottery ticket... You're good at math so you can figure out that a 3 team parlay probably offers you the best "value" payout (versus "probability" of success)...

I'll tell you why...

I'm in this league of about 90 people that each gets to choose 4 games from the ENTIRE schedule of college and NFL games... EVERY YEAR, the absolut winner of the league comes in with about 63-67% success (all ATS)... That means that most of these people would make money off the "books" by a slim margin (because you'd need 55% to cover the vig and break even)...

I generally hit in the 62-64% range (my above results in 2010 bear that out after 4 weeks - I'm basically "on track")...

Now, consider this... In the league I'm in, one of the picks MUST be an "upset" pick... That is you have to take a team that is GETTING POINTS, and not only covers the spread, but WINS straight up...

Now consider this... CV generally (over the years), hits 11-12 of the UPSET SPECIALS (which again, puts me in the same 65% "hit" rate zone)...

I average about 42-43 "correct" picks (out of 68)... 17 weeks x 4 picks = 68... Which puts me in the same 60-65% "hit" rate zone...

So what I'm saying is this... I can stay ahead of the vig margin by high single digit percent... (Because I can COVER 55% by hitting 60-65%)...

But it is VERY difficult to hit a 4 team parlay on any given week...

I generally only hit 2-3 (out of 17) each week...

So do the math... If I were only to do parlays, I'd LOSE 14 times (out of 17)...

- $1400 (assuming $100 = 1 unit)

I'd win 2-3 times (for a "net" gain of $1800 - $2700)...

Sure, I'd still come out a winner, but it's mostly because I have a decent capacity to sopt TRAP games... Most of the other people in the league average 0-1 "4 win" weeks...

OTOH... My success rate for hitting 3 games is roughly 60%...

Anyway... It's all probability and cash management... (not that different from equity trading)...

If I were doing a a 3 or 4 team PARLAY this week (which I'm NOT)... It would probably look like this:

3 team
BILLS, TEXANS, CARDINALS

4 team
BILLS, TEXANS, CARDINALS, BEARS

Good luck...

CV

2small2bail said...

ahab,
SEA DEF has a bye - don't forget to swap out if you want a full squad (FF) - and, good luck

fellow cellar dweller, 2s2b

McFearless said...

CV,

gotta pick three games at the casino here.

Anonymous said...

Ohio State is going to be #1, lacking all of the following:

1. Rushing game
2. Secondary
3. Special teams

If they make it to the championship, it is going to be embarrassing.

McFearless said...

http://www.amusingplanet.com/2010/10/modern-ghost-city-of-ordos.html

Jennifer said...

I've done the mentos thing with my little nerds...its a blast. We were at our favorite pumpkin farm yesterday...no signs of recession (or dieting) there. Now we all have strep throat. Enjoy the rest of the weekend. Alphahorn's going private, but I got invited to join so if there's anything good I'll continue to forward it along.

Jennifer said...

I've got Fred Hickey's newsletter and Gary Savage's weekend update to keep me busy -- so far nothing too exciting but I'll pass along any good ideas.

wunsacon said...

McFearless, here's a better "I'm you" advertisement!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/08/christine-odonnell-im-you_n_755786.html

ben22 said...

nice pick in the NO game CV.

CV said...

Andy had said he was going to come along and do a Monday Morning thread...

I'm out this morning... So - if something has changed in Andy's plan, then you'll have to live with this weekend thread until I get back around noon...

CV

AmenRa said...

Futures still treading water.

The Bond Market said...

I am closed so this will not be a very interesting day.

72bat said...

bengals return to their long-standing tradition of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. what WERE they thinking?

karen said...

morning! copper, crude, gold all down if that means anything..

72bat said...

For the second time in less than a year, thieves have stripped the copper gutters off of a local radio personality's historic home.

karen said...

new high for apple! that stock haunts me..

karen said...

businessinsider
Jeff Saut: Just Keep Buying Stocks, Commodities, And Betting Against The Dollar http://read.bi/aZMNsi

Yeah, what could possibly go wrong?

karen said...

up .19%, .17% and .17% such tidy algos..

McFearless said...

anyone catch the 60 minutes story on HFT's this weekend?

karen said...

no, but WSJ has another flash crash article.. didn't have the subscription for it and didn't feel like googling around it..

here's one in Barron's

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203989704575532221047378144.html?mod=BOL_hps_dc

karen said...

here is a link to WSJ one:

http://mobile2.wsj.com/device/article.php?CALL_URL=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704127904575544533434831258.html?

karen said...

All of Bernanke's QE funds have flowed into risky assets, inflating concurrent bubbles in all asset classes. Gold is up, equities are up, bonds are up, commodities are up--and all can fall (disinflate) together as the failure of QE triggers a rejection of the policy.

The bond market could destroy ZIRP in a week. Once there is political pressure on the Fed not to "monetize" new Federal debt by buying Treasuries either directly or through proxies, then the bond market may choke on the trillions of dollars being issued in new debt.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/Bernanke-QE210-10.html

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Exactly, Karen, exactly. Do we continue in Tepperworld, or do we rationally tackle our massive problems?

...We'll see.

karen said...

ben, nic has the 60 Minutes HFT documentary up:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/Bernanke-QE210-10.html

karen said...

prepare for an up week.. buy any dip..

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/11/equity-market-performance-during-week-of-columbus-day.html

karen said...

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/10/chart-of-week-dollar-and-spx-since.html

karen said...

talk about surreal!!! watching that 60 MIN video...

karen said...

Bruce, did you have a good hiking weekend?? I did two 3+ hour walks.. ending at sunset both evenings.. had to give the skin on my feet a break yesterday, however..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

We hiked all day Friday. Saturday I ran the tractor and cut fields all day, and a little Sunday. Chainsawed the scrub pines and burned them Saturday.

And watched Peyton and went out to eat twice.

Fairly fun weekend.

The fall color is arriving, may try to take some photos this afternoon after the mine closes..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"Bernanke's QE ship is thus sailing directly for the shoals, and we can predict it will run aground and sink in the months ahead.

The consequences will be dire for all the asset bubbles and for the Fed itself. Having sailed the ship onto the rocks, the Fed's treasured independence will start being questioned, and it will become politically popular to call for its dismantling.

All of Bernanke's QE funds have flowed into risky assets, inflating concurrent bubbles in all asset classes. Gold is up, equities are up, bonds are up, commodities are up--and all can fall (disinflate) together as the failure of QE triggers a rejection of the policy.

The bond market could destroy ZIRP in a week. Once there is political pressure on the Fed not to "monetize" new Federal debt by buying Treasuries either directly or through proxies, then the bond market may choke on the trillions of dollars being issued in new debt."

Karen, this is from your site...and I agree this could be the outcome...certainly. Or as they say here in the South, we could keep on keepin' on..

karen said...

China raises big banks reserve requirements.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69A1VI20101011

(Don't look at the dollar.. it's making a stealth move and we don't want to jinx it : )

72bat said...

k -
"Once there is political pressure on the Fed not to "monetize" new Federal debt by buying Treasuries either directly or through proxies"

i wonder, who exactly does charles huges smith have in mind that can bring this kind of political pressure to bear on the fed?

Leftback said...

"The bond market could destroy ZIRP in a week."

Once there is economic growth, ZIRP is no more. But don't hold you breath, we have a few more waves of deleveraging before that happens. Still zillions of houses out there that will remain unsold until price discovery allows the market to clear.

karen said...

TBP has a post, "America Needs An Intervention." The Fed Reserve System is being questioned daily, the veracity of the stock market has been jeopardized with interventions and algos, and the major countries of the world seem to be involved in all out currency wars..

Doubt the keep on keepin'on can keep on much longer.

karen said...

This is so dumb: Gymboree Agrees to $1.8 Billion Bain Capital Offer (Update1) http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3yruYQmtBd0

karen said...

any other comments on that 60 Minutes video??

karen said...

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/11/securities-trade-group-sees-foreclosure-halts-hurting-average-american

This controversy is SO BIG, in my little mind.. can't believe the market reacted bullishly on Friday.. oh wait, yes i can, cuz the market is not influenced by "news" or reality.

Ben22 said...

Neely says trend is up to sideways for the next 3 months. Whoopie!

72bat said...

k-
perfect typo in first line of yourhousing wire item:
"The Securities Industry and Financial Association issued a grief statement Monday morning warning against growing calls to halt foreclosure nationwide.

karen said...

bat.. i didn't realize that was a typo! i thot there might be such a thing as a
"grief statement." : )

72bat said...

re: securities-trade-group-sees-foreclosure-halts-hurting-average-american
p*ssing into the wind.
"SIFMA wants to see all collateral mistakes in the foreclosure process corrected, but doing so needs to "ensure that no unnecessary damage is done to an already weak housing market and, in turn, that there is no further negative impact on the economy."
it's not necessarily already baked in, but the batter's been mixed and about to be put in the oven.

karen said...

CMA Market Flash - Greece 4.7% Tighter

karen said...

The Dollar Runs Into the Triffin Dilemma

Ever since the Fed pre-announced QE2 (and QE Lite) at the end of August, the Dollar has fallen sharply, and other asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have risen in Dollar terms. There is nothing in the economic fundamentals that should drive those assets to rise, as economic news in the US is ambiguous at best if not worsening. Indeed, the continuing 'recoveryless recovery' is the prime reason for the Fed to consider QE2. http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/

(Note: I think I am the originator of "recoveryless recovery"

Ben22 said...

karen,

I can hardly listen to any discussion regarding the reaction to news any more without feeling like I'm surrounded by insanity and a lot of dumb people pretending to be smart, probably will be best to stay away from most discussion the next few months as we likely rally into year end. It's the last gasp to suck the net back into stocks, I believe retail land is going to jump back in before year end, they are slowly getting convinced that everyone in the market is "smart" again,... watch the fund flows (or ETF's rather than mf's). The constant discussion of QE and the amount of people that "know" it will work is simply mind-blowing. It'll be one for the textbooks when all over.

We are currently swamped with client calls, not a soul has called about bonds.

The Federal Reserve religion will create a total conviction environment like no other by year end.

*If people want to skip the lengthy Obama interview in the latest Rolling Stone, then please let me summarize it for you.

"It is Republicans fault"

karen said...

"In 1933 the US could reflate by going off gold, and had the benefit of doing so after a huge debt-deflation spiral that rid the wold of excessive Dollar indebtedness. This time we went off gold 39 years ago, and cannot pull that trick again; and have kicked the can down the road on deleveraging at scale, and thus have been unable to restart lending, which is how money is "printed" in the fiat currency regime. "

karen said...

total conviction environment.. i'm not so sure, ben.. i think the endgame is near. the farce has been acknowledged, so now it'll be who takes profits first, and who follows..

with regard to EM, the US was supposed to be the mentor, the judicious template.. discovering how rampantly corrupt our markets are doesnt mean the others are any better.. and are probably overtly worse.

ben22 said...

wow, somebody that actually understands how "money is printed"....that's a new one.

Colin said...

An interesting chart I like to follow - SPY in int'l currency basket. Looks alot like a descending triangle to me, question is which one leads us lower, the dollar or the market?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:UDN&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p23551157360

ben22 said...

Karen,

as I see it, those in the game already have total conviction about the Fed in the net, I can name far more pundits that are bullish because of some hope about what QE II will do than I can those that think we are in more trouble. Most pundits, from my view, have narrowed it down to two outcomes, we either get better (someday we get a good jobs number, someday the economy grows without it being 100% govt spending) and if it doesn't...then QE over and over again. Those views are hardly David Teppers alone.

The dumb little people, this topic is far too complex and they have better shows to watch on tv, so they resort to what they see around them, and as we've all stated recently, shops and such aren't really very slow.

I was at the mall yesterday....packed. I'm trying to get in the head of the retail investor.

It feels just like late 07/early 08 to me.

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-grant-credit-issues-2010-10

"Lots of people are saying that it's an outrage that junk bonds have been so well, and the general prediction is that they are going to collapse and we are going to see a wave of defaults."

karen said...

great chart, Colin... thanks for that view.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Just finished talking with my business manager..he's back 100% in equities..

Oh, well. More at lunch.

karen said...

hilarious! businessinsider

The American Consumer Needs To Wake Up And Realize He's Got Money To Spend http://read.bi/bb5xUW

AmenRa said...

The end game has begun. The banks are hoping that the MSM takes their time reporting the story.

Since the bond markets are closed the algos are getting in their levitating practice.

CV said...

Sorry folks... CV is just getting back here...

I see I didn't miss much (equity wise)... Unless someone is hoping for something options related...

Anyway, catching up with the thread...

Sorry... no thread... Andy e-mailed me over tghe weekend and I thought I'd interpreted it as him doing a Monday AM post...

I must have misunderstood...

Anyway... I'll be back in a bit...

karen said...

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Liverpool’s holding company is in default over 280 million pounds ($446 million) owed to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Wells Fargo & Co., and the banks may put the soccer club into bankruptcy protection, three people familiar with the situation said today.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBxiOvZlA97c

karen said...

CV, no worries.. no one wants to chat today anyway... except me, who apparently can't stop : (

karen said...

oops.. Minyanville

Greece Has $400 Billion Worth of Islands It Can't Seem to Sell: Greece may be cursed with debt but it's blessed wi... http://bit.ly/bh3rSH

CV said...

Who in their right mind would BUY an island anyway?

Ok great... you buy it... it's YOURS... But then the government invents some tax on you to whatever degree they want...

Or, with the stroke of a pen, they re-annex all private property...

Unless you're a have enough to fund an entire army... You're an idiot...

CV said...

@ben22

I'm going to make a case AGAINST Neely (and the idea that we'll go sideways - higher over the next few months)...

Either that - or, I'd need a better definition of the RANGE he allows when he says "sideways"...

karen said...

doesn't seem like it's a heavy order flow day : )

Leftback said...

"Lots of people are saying that it's an outrage that junk bonds have been so well, and the general prediction is that they are going to collapse and we are going to see a wave of defaults."

Lots of people are going to be wrong. This didn't happen in Japan after the initial collapse and it isn't going to happen here unless there is a rate explosion. Not happening.

Leftback said...

BUCKY has put in a bottom for the time being. We need to watch DXY and JPYUSD for signs of a significant change in the FX regime.

CV said...

VIX under 20...

No worries at all people! Economy is doing just fine...

karen said...

ibm at new high today..

CV said...

Barclays Quant Commentary: Worst Returns Environment For Disciplined Stock Pickers In 60 Years

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/barclays-quant-commentary-worst-returns-environment-disciplined-stock-pickers-60-years

"There are no idiosyncratic returns available in the market for them and the situation has, essentially, never been worse, anytime in the past 60 years." Then again, there are no traditional stock pickers left anymore - everyone now does the same as Pimco - stay one step of the Fed (and just imitate what everyone else is doing), or risk losing your job. In the meantime the biggest groupthink trade ever is getting bigger by the day, as everyone hopes and prays profit taking never occurs."

So we can basically all just look forward to time ticking away without ever a move being made...

Until that one fateful day when it all blows up... But, of course... SMART people know it'll never blow up, so there's no need to be prepared for anything...

CV said...

@karen

Yeah, those IBM folks are out there "building a smarter planet"...

Can't you feel it? (all the SMARTNESS)?

Must be why the stock price is at an all time high...

CV said...

Of course...

Ritholtz would rather MAKE MONEY than be right...

So tell me... Where does that fall on the SMARTNESS scale?

Ben22 said...

CV,

I think Neely range might be btwn 1,100 and 1200 if it's sideways through year end, looks like his high target is 1250ish.

CV said...

Speaking of Ritholtz...

How can someone one day pen a thread asking "Do you want to be right, or make money" (and, of course, come down himself on the MAKE MONEY side)...

Then write this...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/truth-consequences/

"As a nation, we have been kidding ourselves, repeating myths, hoping that if we say something enough times, it will become reality — no matter how untrue. The credit crisis and now foreclosure debacle has revealed to anyone who cares to look what we have sought to ignore: That the past decade has been based on a set of fundamental beliefs that are intrinsically false.

Its time for an intervention. We need someone to force us to stop hitting the bottle, lose the bimbo, skip the dessert cart, visit the gym. Its time to stop bullshitting ourselves about Financial Engineering, and face both the Truth & Consequences of our legacy financial system.

It is past time we recognize these hard truths:"...

---


Oh wait... I know... If you're a HYPOCRITE, you can write anything... I'm going to go practice that... I'll be back in a few...

CV said...

@ben22

OK, thanks for that...

I can probably "see" that, if that's the case... Not that I necessarily agree, or disagree with it, but at least it defines "SIDEWAYS"...

There are 2 things that bothered me about the "sideways to higher" thought (unexplained)...

1. The upper bollinger on the WEEKLY vix is going to dip to 30 within 2 weeks or so... That's usually an indication that the market is ripe for at least some kind of pullback... Knowing this market, it'll dip to 1110 for like 2-3 days, get everyone all really rattled, then come charging back...

2. 2nd thing is the GOLDEN CROSS... Right now the 200MA is nearing 1121 (the 50% 666-1576 FIBO)...

On the last dip to 1040, the market spent about 24 days under 1121, and now we're coming up on around the same number of days OVER 1121...

To GOLDEN CROSS, the market will probably have to stay above 1121 for the better part of October-November... But I'd expect AT LEAST ONE CHALLENGE... and I'd expect that challenge to come in the 1121 - 1110 range...

If you combine the two elements... it might set up for Neely's scenario...

How?

A flash crash down to 1110 would spike the VIX into the 30's (which would probably be enough for it to get technically oversold)...

Then, if it rebounded, and stayed above 1121, we could be getting into GOLDEN CROSS-ville...

That would probably be the last "bullish" thing you describe to get everyone back on board...

I swear... I'd shut down and not trade any stocks for MONTHS if that happened...

karen said...

crude in a pennant on 5 min chart (or so i think..)

karen said...

look at $wlsh for september.. you'd think the economy was headed full steam ahead.

Anonymous said...

I'm not worried about a default wave in high yield, but I don't understand why anyone wants to own junk with these spreads.

I don't like the risk premiums anywhere and I prefer a mix of cash and high dividend equities until we get better prices or better public policy.

ben22 said...

Who is the "we" in Barry's post....I thought we always talked about "they"

I'm quite aware of all of that anyway, thank you very much....

CV said...

"you'd think the economy was headed full steam ahead."

IT IS...

full steam ahead, right off the cliff...

ben22 said...

anon, 1:43,

um, excuse me, you do not seem to be completely on board with the First House of the Fed religious movement.

Please convert or face the consequences....it's that easy.

karen said...

BoE's Kin is a party pooper.. says it it s a mistake to assume the worst of the crisis is over.

karen said...

GLD had lower volume earlier but price is picking up and could make a new 52 week high..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

What is better public policy?


...I could not help but notice France is undergoing turmoil now because the French have become accustomed to letting the government make the decisions...amazing that people are striking to have the government decide more, not less, about how to use their money.

...It is just the fiscal conservative in me..

CV said...

@ben22

BTW... Penn St. blows! :-)

CV said...

@BinT

The problem with France is... It's full of French people...

(actually, these days, I think it's a muslim country)... Kinda of like where the USA is going...

DL said...

Yeah, are we "turning Japanese", or are we becoming very French?

ben22 said...

"BTW... Penn St. blows!"

yep

Anonymous said...

The queasing speculation slays me. They are talking $500 billion expectations (on bubblevision) and a substantial response from various asian and south american states.

ben22 said...

look, the total amount to monetize is going to be 1 quadrillion, that's the number...what it's going to take to monetize it all.... we may as well just stick with that end amount because everyone is already convinced that the Fed will just QE forever so may as well just stick to the end results.

of course, when you start talking quadrillions you look like a jackass.....but thats the type of thing people will forget about.

CV said...

This "queasing" thing is a joke...

I mean what the hell? If they're going to do something, why not just go all out?

Why not just say they're going to print $500 trillion?

Don't answer... (I already know the answer)... The point... INSTEAD... is that it's ridiculous... They already know it's not going to work...

It's like Obama, that came out over the weekend and announced another $50 billion in stimulus...

Yeah right... $1.5 trillion didn't work... I guess they miscalculated and they needed to make it $1.505...

Darn it... They must have "fat fingered" it...

I'm getting so tired of this BS...

karen said...

Fed Hoenig: Low Rates, Quantitative Easing Will Harm Recovery -Fox Business 2:10 PM ET 10/11/10 | Dow Jones

Sustained low interest rates will create new imbalances, possibly causing inflation, and be harmful to the recovery of the economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig told Fox Business Network on Monday.

Hoenig, responding to a question on being the lone dissenter on the Federal Open Market Committee, said, "My point is low interest rates did not cause this crisis and low interest rates, if we continue them on, will have the effect over time of creating new imbalances and is basically harmful for the long-term recovery of the economy."

He said the economy is recovering "modestly" and he is not seeking high rates, but "something that is off zero."

Hoenig also warned that quantitative easing isn't the way forward.

"We're at historically low rates and we go down another 20 basis points and we're going to turn things around, against the risks that are out there in terms of the imbalances, in terms of our own independence, in terms of the long run inflation issues that are not immediate but are out there. Those are the tradeoffs that we have to really carefully consider."

Hoenig said the recent private sector jobs report that jobs are up at 850,000 is a "positive direction."

Full story at http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4368780/feds-hoenig-need-to-move-rates-modestly-/?playlist_id=87185

Colin said...

Fun thought of the day:

JGB 10yrs at 88 bips
Japan 10-yr CDS (dollar denominated of course) trading at 105ish bips

karen said...

(Reuters) - Stocks inched higher in a thinly traded session on Monday, which lacked few external catalysts just days before the earnings season begins in earnest.

Investors continued to expect that the U.S. Federal Reserve will bolster the economic recovery with another round of quantitative easing after Friday's weak payroll report underlined the economy's lack of progress in certain areas.

After Friday's report, "everyone understands that the Fed has its back to the wall," said Joseph Greco, managing director of Meridian Equity Partners in New York.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68J14620101011

CV said...

All I know is...

Everyone out there better be using their time wisely to stock up on as many goods as possible...

You'd better convert all your cash into a hard asset as soon as it touches your hand, because there's no other way...

CV said...

Frankly - I'm very surprised we've been on this INFLATION thing for as long as we have (basically - since August/Jackson Hole)...

I mean, it's getting old... It's time to slosh some water to the other side of the bucket for awhile and get everyone scared about DEFLATION again...

karen said...

sorry to keep posting all the spin.. i just find it fascinating..

colin, i think i follow you..

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=adsvsxGJs8o4

fomc minutes tomorrow, can we sell the news already?

karen said...

i'll tell ya where there is a war going on:

Eight police officers shot and killed in the Mexican state of Sinaloa - Telemundo http://bit.ly/d0nABe

DL said...

yeah, sell the news.

A massive, full-fledged, 1% correction is coming this week.

karen said...

hope you are sitting down: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mary-schapiro-9-million-dollar-clown

From Investment News Daily, October 10, 2010--

"The disclosure that Mary Schapiro received nearly $9 million last year when she left her post as Finra's chief executive to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission was greeted with outrage by brokerage industry participants last week.

“Nine million dollars? For a non-profit? That defies logic,” said John Busacca, owner of the Broker Dealer Exchange LLC and one of the founders of the Securities Industry Professional Association, which represents broker-dealer firms and registered representatives.

“It's absolutely obscene,” said Dan Roberts, founder of Roberts & Ryan Investments Inc. The payout shows that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. is “out of touch” with its members, he said.

ben22 said...

based on price action today I would think we'll see 1174-1175 before the week is over, a suspect time to go short to be sure, but I will take the risk anyway.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Sounds like they're pissed she made more than them.

CV said...

"sitting down"

Basically, I've been beyond "sitting" for a few weeks...

I'm more or less curled up fetal...

Not that I'm really losing $$ here... Just bored & incredulous...

ben22 said...

Anyone that watched 60 minutes knows that Mary Shapiro is nothing but a dumb bitch. Yeah, I said it. She looked like a fool and her fake whisper tone was enough to make me sick. The SEC is a joke, has been for a long time.

I-Man said...

Whatever man, its the best conference in college football...

CV said...

The VOLUME on the SPY today is about the same as it was on...

drumroll

Christmas Eve of last year (when the markets close early)...

ROR...

karen said...

crude broke pennant to the downside if anyone cares.. it'll be interesting to see if anything else follows suit.. the dollar has edged closer to HoD.. but gold hanging really tough.

DL said...

Ben22,

I'll bet she stamps out all that porn-watching during business hours.

karen said...

ben, didn't like her on that 60 MIN either..

karen said...

ChartLines

Gold - even Terry Laundry of www.ttheory.com is showing gold blowoff watch mode (tho bullish to 2020)
1 minute ago via Mobile Web

DL said...

"though bullish to 2020"

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

2020... is that the year, or the price?

ben22 said...

Karen,

I notice that people like her resort to a whisper in those types of interviews, it's an elitist speaking technique. I want to slap the shit out of people that do it. James Galbraith comes to mind right away, many of the Nobel Laureates know only this tone.

sorry, today for some reason I'm more annoyed than prior having to listen to people blabber on and on about QE like they know anything that the rest of us don't. It's just a giant experiment, everyone is guessing, few people can admit it though.

karen said...

$spx 10 min for today.. i'm seeing another pennant : )

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu

AmenRa said...

AUDJPY and EURJPY have been down all day. Gold edging higher. EURUSD down. Oil down. XLF down. Yen up. SPY volume still under 1mil. I can see the MSM headline: "Stocks edge higher on QE2 expectations", "Rah Rah Go FOMC Go!", "Foreclosure problems not to affect home prices", etc.

karen said...

yellen better be careful or she'll light this tinderbox..

karen said...

CV.. our fav chart : )

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fundamental-question-for-investors-which-will-blink-first-bonds-or-stocks-2010-10

karen said...

topstep! http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2010/10/1165-fut-key-to-flash-crash-gold-silver.html

Andy T said...

Hello. Back from Vegas town...

That place was bustling this weekend. Everyone getting married on 10/10/10, etc...

Gambling was "so-so" but the sportsbook was good to me.

Bet the Ravens (CV has sold me on this team), Colts, and Redskins and did a 3-team parlay with those games. I thot I was screwed at various points...but it's better to be lucky than good. Also, had bets on SC and Texas A&M....so "kissed my sister" pretty much with college games.

Will try to get some market thoughts together for this evening.

karen said...

great, great video.. hey andy!! look forward to your thots later..

"obviously, someone needs to sell some stock at some point.."

there are a lot of gems in this one..

"three weeks from now, it won't be looking like this.."

Andy T said...

ben22: All the schoolmarm regulators annoy me....Elizabeth Warren, Sheila Bair...

It's a signal of the times that these folks are the "heros" among the press...."they know what's good for us!"

karen said...

LOL.. QUOTE OF THE DAY: "it's not gonna be a gentleman's decline.. "

ben22 said...

oh yes, lets not forget her....Elizabeth Warren... and the new consumer protection agency....please, we already had one!

ben22 said...

AT,

GN went back to that other count, he's convinced we are in terminal C wave....he keeps marking top target around 1250.

karen said...

bruce.. not sure if you noticed but see the spread on ECH today? 72.72-76.05

I-Man said...

that was an interesting move for a holiday range trade...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I tried a little Brazil this morning....up very small amount today...ECZ I believe.

I could be like Leftback. Look at the insane markets and drink myself into a stupor every night, lie out in the gutter and beg for someone to take me home, if I could remember where I lived..I know, I know...who knew?

Or just try to figure out what to do.

...I think I'm going to get a Jim Cramer mask, and then go out for Halloween..

karen said...

Nic posted this fantastic Jay Z parody:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4NeFo7zkfk&feature=youtu.be

karen said...

Well, bruce, i daresay the chart of EEM looks a lot like the chart of SLV.. wouldn't touch anything until a correction ensues..

CV said...

Blogger sucks...

Either that or it's a browser issue...

I can't get the comment screen open...

Grrr...

karen said...

which looks like chart of $spx.. which looks like chart of FXA.. laughing.. it's all one trade for now : )

CV said...

@karen

"all one trade" nowadays means you have to consider that chart you put up at (2:51)...

Fed monetizes everything...

Bonds & Equities get bought... What a great world to be LONG everything...

It's that easy!

karen said...

gotta luv that aapl candle.. i wonder if we will see greed in reverse.

I-Man said...

guess no one wanted to play games this afternoon...

I-Man played... and made it pay.

I-Man said...

I think the machines got a little stuck in the range program today... silly robots.

karen said...

xrt candle is intereting today..

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Spoke too soon. I can see the algos grinding the market higher. Somebody pull the plug please.

I-Man said...

@ Ra,

All good... just a run back up to the 50 fib of the intraday move.

I and I work is done.

All herd, all the time.

I-Man said...

If anyone is watching that fib sequence, a reversal at the 38.2, currently 10946 on YM, could set up a nice 20 tick move down to 10926 before the close...

I doubt anyone is fighting for singles like the I tho...

ben22 said...

looks like a big three waves

I-Man said...

With these intraday 1min charts, its all Ganns and Fib's as far as I'm concerned... thats all they trade... with a few measured moves thrown in for fun... just a matter of how many follow, and how fast they follow, that determines the next pivot.

Overnight lows and highs can throw it off a bit, but I just wait for a new pivot to hit by mid morning to clear it up.

I-Man said...

Well, I see it got back to the 50, probably settle YM right at 10947, which is the 78.6 of fridays move to the overnight high...

So as Ben is alluding, nothing for a intermediate term bear to cheer about.

I think Nic's SPX measured move/diamond chart is one of the best charts I've seen lately.

Anonymous said...

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/dollar_6779.html

karen said...

Not a perfect 10 but close, another tight performance in a tight market:
nazdaq up .02%,
dow up .02%,
spx down .01%

CV said...

CV...

"incredulous": up 2.3%
"bored": up 2.4%
"annoyed": up 2.3%

You're RIGHT!

I-Man said...

@ anon

Are those your charts?

CV said...

gotta go peeps...

No real "feel" for the Minny-Jets game tonight...

I suppose I'd be taking Minny and the points for 0 units...

Tho it would be kind of funny to see Minny & Dallas meet next week BOTH with 1-3 records...

karen said...

Equities Report 10/11

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/11/equities-report-1011/

I-Man said...

Sweet!

Thats a cool site they got up, Karen... thanks for sharing. That will be a great new addition to the I's blog list.

ben22 said...

all about that VIX today, maybe it's worth something, maybe not, tomorrow should be fun, looked like there was buying interest today to me. If we go long through year end on the next pull-back, the picks are "easy".....

ben22 said...

also, in general it seems the retail crowd is displaying spending habits similar to that of 03-07, I mentioned the woman doing a 40k bathroom recently, there's more.....

perhaps money came out of equity mutual funds, retail still doesn't know much about the household ledger though.

ben22 said...

vix and several other sentiment indicators reveal sentiment is pressing on that light headed sort of level....wonder how much longer people pass the hope pipe around.

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