Weekend Edition - Week 10 NCAA Picks/Week 9 NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread])

2010 Aggregate NCAA Picks(ATS): 35-21-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +5
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$320)

NFL Aggregate Picks (ATS): 59-51-4
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +13
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$960)

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WEEK 10 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

NORTHWESTERN (+6) at Penn State - 1 unit
Penn State 35  - Northwestern 21 (-$110) - Incorrect
Arkansas at SOUTH CAROLINA (-3.5) - 1 unit
Arkansas 41 - South Carolina 20 (-$110) - Incorrect
Ucf at HOUSTON (+2) - 1 unit (Friday Night)*
Central Florida 40 - Univ of Houston 33 - (-$110) - Incorrect
WESTERN MICHIGAN (+3) at Central Michigan - 1 unit (Friday Night)*
Central Michigan 26 - Western Michigan 22 - (-$110) - Incorrect

*two FRIDAY NIGHT games that I put in the blog comment section... If you weren't paying attention (and they won)... YOU SUCK... Instead - If they LOSE, be glad you were on to your FROU FROUS... NOT MUCH ACTION THIS WEEK... It's like Bernankrupt is now making VEGAS LINES as well (which means - IMPOSSIBLE TO BET & having any hopes of making money)...

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: NOBODY... Even my "tried & true" (fade the RANKED TEAMS is off the table this week because Boise St. plays Hawaii, TCU plays on the road at Utah; Auburn plays some division 16 jayvee squad; and Oregon plays Washington w/o Jake Locker... For shits & grins I'll nominate ALABAMA... (good luck with that)...

Week 10 NCAA Picks (ATS): 0-5-0
Week 10 unit pick differential: -4
Week 10 wager total: (-$440)

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NFL Preview: I will have individual game write-ups posted by kickoff Sunday
Week 9 Injury Report (for FANTASY PLAYERS):

WEEK 9 NFL

BYE WEEK: (Washington, San Francisco, Denver, Tennessee)

EARLY GAMES

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (in Toronto, CANADA) (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 3

The obvious way to get to the Bears is to toss the kitchen sink at Mike Martz "no protection" scheme and send the QB to the x-ray room... Unfortunately, the Bills have only 11 sacks on the year... On the other side of the ball, the Bears rate #1 against the pass, largely due to Julius Peppers terrorizing QB's...

What I'm going for is the dynamic "inside" the above dynamic... 7 of the Bills 11 sacks have come in the past 3 games (so they've improved something)... Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fairly mobile QB... He could avoid JP just enough to lob some screen passes over to CJ Spiller (who might finally have a breakout game here)...

It's a good percentage play to take teams that are winless, so I'm going with the BILLS for (4 units)...


San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)
Line: Chargers by 3

The Chargers are 2nd in the league in sacks (which doesn't bode well for Matt Schaub in having to wait for Andre Johnson to get open in coverage)... AJ himself, injured his ankle at the end of the Monday Night affair vs. the Colts... He's going to be nowhere near 100%...

You gotta think Houston will come in to this game a little flat and defeated... This is a horrible spot for them because they have division rivals Jacksonville coming in next week... I'll take the CHARGERS for (3 units)...

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 6.5

Nobody seems to be able to figure out the Saints this year... I can... It's easy... Their defense is banged up, they've got SAFETIES filling in at cornerback, and therefore they're not getting that +18 turnover margin they had last year... They lost Reggie Bush (and Pierre Thomas is out), so Drew Brees is trying to get things done all on his own with receivers who drop footballs... They don't have as many possessions per game (because when they were getting turnovers last year, they were working with half a field)... And they constantly BOG DOWN in the red zone (which amounts to another 3-4 "clock minutes" chewed up per game)...

So... Not that the Saints are a bad team... They're just not that flashy team that won the Super Bowl last year... The Panthers always seem to play the Saints tight, but that's when they have a reliable QB & a running game... This year they don't as left tackle Jeff Otah is out and they can't produce running lanes...

I'm going to go with the SAINTS here (against my better judgement)... Large favorites going into their BYE week have a pretty good record ATS... (1 unit) 



Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EST)
Line: Vikings by 7.5

To add to the Vikings list of woes of the ongoing Brett Favre saga, the Randy Moss debacle, and other issues... This week, owner "Zigi" apparently considered firing Bard Childress over the Moss incident... Rumors also have it that there was a shouting contest between Childress & Percy Harvin in Friday's practice... Let's not forget the problems he had with Adrian Peterson over the summer when Peterson showed up late to camp because of a benefit he was sponsoring...

I've been saying for years that childress should be fired... He's clearly a control freak and his team has only been held together by miracle wins last year, and talented players... But he's very much ON THE EDGE... I'm half expecting him to spontaneoulsly combust on the sidelines some week... Maybe this one...

I doubt anyone could fathom losing to the Arizona Cardinals (who are wracked with their own QB problems) as their hall of fame QB of the past few years is now on Dancing with the Stars...

It's hard to really do anything with this game except grab some popcorn and hope that either Childress bursts into flames on the sidelines, or drunken Derek Anderson thrown 20 interceptions... A word od warning... If there is a play that Anderson has to scramble to the Vikings sidelines and ends up near Childress... Do NOT STRIKE a match... If you're in the stadium... RUN, DO NOT WALK to the exit tunnel (because downtown Minneapolis is about to blow)... CARDINALS for (0 units)...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)
Line: Falcons by 8.5

For all you people who are in love with central bankers, and the "Bernanke Put"... You know... SURE THINGS... Like the fact that the stock market is going to rise because Bernankrupt wants it to and can pull some levers...

I offer you... The Atlanta Falcons & the Tampa Bay Buccaneers... This game is between the two LEADERS of the NFC south... Both are ahead of the World Champion Saints... They both are tied with the New York Giants for the best records in the NFC...

At the beginning of the season... Whoda thunk it? The Bucs were "rebuilding" and supposed to be doormats... The Saints were UNSTOPPABLE... And the COWBOYS (1-7) and the VIKINGS (2-6) and with their coach about to detonate were the SURE BETS to go to the Super Bowl...

I guess "that's why they go ahead and play the game"... Right? Kind of like THE ECONOMY... On paper, I suppose the DOW is going right to 36,000... Right? I mean, why not just re-set it to 36,000 tomorrow... Why bother with all the fuss?

Back to the game (the one they go ahead and actually play on the field - just for kicks)... I like this Bucs team, but you have to be a little careful here... They only have two losses, but both of those losses were blowouts (against quality teams - Saints Steelers)... In both of those games, their secondary got torched vertically... Atlanta has the possibility to do that here with Matty Ice & Roddy White (who play very well in the Georgia Dome)... Tampa Bay ranks dead last in stopping the run (so expect to see a heavy dose of Michael Turner as well)...

For Tampa Bay, Josh Freeman has shown a great ability to engineer drives at the end of the game (when his team was down)... In this case though, it may be a case of too little, too late... He threw a gruesome interception that almost cost his team the game last week in Arizona... While you have to guard against the "back door" cover here (because of the pointspread)... I'll go ahead and lay the points with the FALCONS for (2 units)...

J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Jets by 5

I don't really have much to say about this game... I don't like games that Betty White could handicap about as well as CV... Even though I've had a pretty good record handicapping NCAA games this year, if you look above in the thread, you'll see that on this particular weekend, CV has entered the Betty White pantheon of handicapping... It's what happens when I have "no feel" for a game...

The Jets aren't hard to understand... Rex Ryan is going to throw the kitchen sink at you on defense... & the offense is going to try not to make mistakes... So why did they get shut out at home last week vs. Green Bay?... Who knows? But perhaps all the fantasy owners who picked up Santonio Holmes (and got goose egged - and are now "sitting" him) will be equally pissed this week when he actually catches some balls against the porous secondary of the Lions...

I can't really handicap this game on personnel, so I'll just go on trends... it's usually a good idea to take a team ON THE ROAD that just suffered a shutout loss at home... That said, the JETS might NOT be the play here because they're 4 point ROAD FAVORITES... The idea, is that most teams who get shut out at home are teams that suck anyway... Then they're usually getting like 14 points the next week and somehow manage to cover...

I'll take the LIONS here for (0 units)... and suggest you go THE OTHER WAY from my pick...



Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)
Line Ravens by 5

I've been totally inept this year in picking (or fading) the Ravens... I've been pretty good at taking the Dolphins, and have only been beaten by some bad luck (like the Rothleisberger fumble at the goal line that was awarded to the Steelers)...

Mostly, I've been siding with the Dolphins (and taking points), but I gotta say... I don't really like the Dolphins in this particular spot...

Cam Cameron had a stint at Miami (during the Bill Parcells era), and has always seemed to have the Dolphins number... Baltimore has won multiple playoff games on the road (in Miami), and I suppose he just knows how to gameplan... Add to that fact that baltimore is coming off its BYE week (while the Dolphins are playing their 2nd straight road game, and their 3rd straight AFC South opponent)... They have a slate of games within the division coming up, and well, they might just be flat here...

A lot of the Dolphins "cache" on offense has been moving the chains with slot receiver Davone Bess... They kind of stole the idea from the Patriots, as Bess has become a lot like Wes Welker... When you do that against Baltimore, it means that your sending a guy into the middle and just asking for Ray Lewis to deliver a body blow...

The Dolphins have kicked 10 field goals in the past two games (which means they're having trouble in the Red Zone)... Baltimore is #1 in the league in Red Zone defense... Add it all up, and it means that if the Ravens are scoring TD's and the Dolphins are kicking FG's... The Ravens might just be able to cover the 5.5 points... I'll take the RAVENS for (1 unit)... 


New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)
Line: Patriots by 4

Here you have Eric Mangini going against former mentor Bill Belchick... It's too bad that the Browns humiliated the Saints and then went on a BYE WEEK... Actually, it's good in a way, because you keep some positive feelings, but you may lose intensity...

I don't know what kind of "mission" the Patriots might be on here... Though they sport the best record in the NFL, they really are a mediocre team... Last week they played a "hype" game (the RANDY MOSS return), against a team whose coach is about to turn into a pillar of salt, and a 40 year old QB that looks like the dude in that "Operation" game from Milton Bradley...

Next week, and the week after, things will start to get more serious for the Pats who play the Colts & Steelers in successive weeks... If they happen to be "looking ahead" here (or, "looking behind" and reading all the sportswriters gushing over them being the #1 ranked team in the NFL despite they're hardly in the top 10 in any important statistical category:

- 16th passing yds
- 14th rushing yds
- 31st passing defense (2nd to dead last)
- 12th rushing defense

And that's after trouncing such juggernauts as the 2-6 Vikings, the 0-7 Bills, the 3-5 Bengals, & 3-4 Chargers... They do have quality wins against the Ravens (which came in overtime)... But their single loss came against the Jets (where they got annihilated)...

Nevertheless... In backing the Browns here, you're backing a rookie QB Colt McCoy... Granted - McCoy has NOT been the meltdown machine that most rookie QB's are... He played rather well vs. bot the Saints & Steelers (on the road)... But it's usually only a matter of time before a rookie QB makes some mistakes... I'm sure Mangini knows that, and, wanting to beat Belchick, will try to reduce errors and just feed the ball to Peyton Hillis all afternoon...

I don't know... To the PUBLIC, this is a small line (because the public still thinks the Browns such and the Patriots are gods)... I'll go with the BROWNS here, but only for a small (1 unit) play...

LATE GAMES
(write-ups will be published before kickoff)



New York Football Giants at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST)
Line: Giants by 7

The Seahawks lost a brutal game to the suddenly world beating Oakland Raiders... A lot of dynamics shifted for them in that game in that they lost some key personnel on defense, and Matt Hasslebeck got sacked 8 times and wound up with a concussion... The game featured a lot of flukey plays and bounces that all went the Raiders way...

With Hasslebeck out, the Seahawks are going to have to start Charlie Whitehurst for his first NFL start against a ferocious Giants pass rush that has knocked out 5 QB's already this year...

Let's not forget though that Seattle is a tough place to play... This game was a 5.5 line at the start of the week, but it's moved to 7 (now that it's been confirmed that Whitehurst is playing QB)... I think I'd have to take that line with the SEAHAWKS here but wouldn't recommend any units (0 units)... The move to 7 probably just means that they're protecting a 13 point teaser zone... They don't want the whole world piling onto the G-Men in teasers (with the Jets, Saints, & Patriots, & Steelers) all on tight lines, & the Colts GETTING points... Vegas has their flak jackets on this weekend against teasers... 



Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EST)
Line: pk

Since the world is suddenly in love with the Oakland Raiders here because they've scored 120 points in their last 3 contests... To me, that's like becoming "in love" with tea partiers (thinking they're going to go to Washington and solve many problems)... Betting on the Raiders often ends up in tears (except for those moments when they suck and they're GETTING points)...

KC has become a solid rushing offense... The funny thing I see is though, that the public still thinks Matt Cassel somehow has anything to do with the Chiefs turnaround... Let me set you straight, he's a noodle arm QB that has found himself in a "system" that happens to avoid terrible mistakes... He's LUCKY this week that Nnadi Asamogha went down on defense for the raiders at the end of last weeks game (otherwise he might find himself challenged here)...

I really can't get a handle on this game... I loved the Chiefs earlier in the week (when Vegas made them 2 point dogs)... But now that the line has switched to "pick-em"... I can't really make a call... Straight up, I can't put myself in the mood to fade the RAIDERS who have done nothing buy annihilate teams the past 3 weeks (0 units)...



Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Dog Killers (4:15 EST)
Line: Dog Killers by 3

Why are the Colts a 3 point dog? To anyone?... OK, I take emotions out of it and say that a point spread always moves 3 points towards the host... But that's saying that the Eagles & Colts are about even on a neutral field... Are they?

The Colts are decimated on offense... Interestingly though, the injuries are to "position players" (Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Joeseph Addai, & Donald Brown), & not to their offensive line... If the Eagles are going to do damage via blitz packages, it's the offensive line that's key (and the Colts are healthy there)... They also have this guy named peyton Manning that has made his career making "blitz packages" look silly...

Good Luck Andy Reid...

On the other side of the ball... Reid is going to start Michael "Dog Killer" Vick... (see video)... Vick is a more mobile QB than Kolb... But the Colts come after you with Freeney & Mathis (probably the most ferocious pair of defensive ends in the NFL... The Eagles offensive tackles are old and should have a lot of difficulty holding any kind of pocket...

This is going to come down to how well Vick can improvise...

Thus, I can't really say... Vick is too unpredictable to me... He's had some games in which he's put up some impressive fantasy numbers this year, but those were all against crappy squads... Just becaise the PUBLIC seems to think its getting a bargain here with the Colts here, I'll slide the other way and take the EAGLES for (0 units)... 


SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST)
Line: Packers by 7
CV is leaning to: COWBOYS (low unit play)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL



Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (8:35 EST)
Line: Steelers by 4.5
CV is leaning to: STEELERS (low unit play)




21 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I am picking Global Central Bankers over US Benelzebubs in a rout. Will be broadcast live from South Korea!

...I don't quite see how you picked the Kitnas this weekend...?

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY officially said good bye to EWI and the Short Term Update (STU) this weekend. After reading their explanation for the change in their count which was essentially 'sometimes lower probability counts come true' I said "ENOUGH!".

karen said...

Cold War Kids! (thanks Andy : )

karen said...

words from Jekyll Island..

"“I have rejected any notion that we are going to raise inflation to a super-normal level in order to have effects on the economy,” Bernanke said today in a panel discussion at a Fed conference in Jekyll Island, Georgia. “Our credibility must be maintained,” and “it’s critical for us to maintain inflation at an appropriate level,” he said."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aF07CKy5BX7o

Andy T said...

@Karen.

Cold Ward Kids are pretty good. They're in the studio with the same guy that made Kings of Leon better. I'm looking forward to the next album. Should be decent.

@McHappy.

Good Call there. Their counts have been poor for several months now.

@Football.

Happy to see Bob Stoops lose. I really loathe that guy. He's the only coach I've ever seen "dress down" a (college) player in a press conference. He's arrogant and an ass.

Happy to see Nick Saban lose as well, though I was more surprised by that outcome.

TCU v. BSU in the Championship game....

Andy T said...

Had the pleasure of driving into the "Galleria" area of Houston this afternoon/evening to pick up my 11 year old who was there at B-Day party thing. The whole area was jam-packed...bustling.

Lambo and Bentley out in front of the Galleria entrance...the Cheesecake Factory, the location of the gathering, was insanely packed at around 6pm.

Things are humming in that area of Houston.

TCU vs BCU 1&1 said...

Andy, Two years ago, TCU beat BSU in a bowl game, last year BSU beat TCU.

Next year BCU leaves the WAC and goes to Mountain West so TCU and BSU will be in the same conference

Oregon Ducks looking pretty good, if they can win from here on out I think they should be considered #1.

Mangy Mutt

cv said...

@Andy (11:31)

Lambo and Bentley out in front of the Galleria entrance...the Cheesecake Factory, the location of the gathering

How can things NOT be jumping with all the Bernanke bucks floating around?

"Let them eat CHEESCAKE"... It's a shame that when they all go to sell that AAPL stock that they're getting rich on, the dollars that they convert the balance to will be worth nothing...

BTW

I TOTALLY WHIFFED on college picks over the weekend (first time all year)...

I hope my NFL pick go a little better, but I'd said in the write-up... I hate all the games this weekend...

I did have Zenyatta losing though (though she gave it her all & was impressive)... I think Mike Smith held her back too far at the beginning...

Winner? BLAME Socioeconomics baby! :-)

CV said...

This is cool right here...

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Oregon-s-new-arena-features-a-memorable-basketba?urn=ncaab-283060

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV,

I agree. You have more horse than the rest of the field, and your jockey has her positioned dead last going into the backstretch?

..Sounds like, as with pilots, "human error"...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2e4b316-e8fc-11df-a1b4-00144feab49a.html#axzz14bP6YIcL



Flaw in Fed’s ideological repositioning on asset prices

...By the way, have you noticed that the Financial Times has decided to quit shooting itself in the foot? For some time, you could not read their web content unless you had a subsciption...kinda like the way Apple started out with Microsoft...and now you can. And now Apple has changed, for many years now, the idea that the coolest people would want them over Microsoft...it only guaranteed they'd not have competition...

CV said...

You know?

Chris Carter & Keyshawn Johnson (on ESPN)... Need to STFU...

They keep bashing on Mike Shanahan and his substitution of Donovan Mcnabb last week...

First of all... It's hardly a doubt that both of them are racists... Both of them... Even this week are in there trying to make a case for "Dog Killer" Michael Vick over Peyton Manning...

I don't need to say much more to anybody who knows ANYTHING about that notion...

But let's get back to McNabb in Washington...

I'll let statistics talk for me... For all you fantasy ownders out there... Is McNabb even on any teams out there? If most teams are carrying two QB's, and if most leagues are either 10 or 12 deep... It means McNabb is somewhere in the 20th to 25th ranking (interest wise) in "performing" QB's in the league...

2010 was to be a re-building year for Washington... So actually you have to think of it as a situation where Shanahan is "auditioning" personnel... Why should McNabb be excluded from that process...

Lastly... Shanahan has TWO SUPERBOWL RINGS...

- How many does McNabb have?
- How many does Keyshawn Johnson have?
- How many does Chris Carter have?

STFU!

CV said...

LOL...

THE QUEEN is now on facebook

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_britain_queen_on_facebook

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Reportedly, her next move is going to be to start a collection of the best dog fotos, then start a blog that proposes to discuss financial markets...

Being a QUEEN and all...

McFearless said...

oh my, nobody could see EWI relabeling the move as a different zig zag could they have.....but there it is on page 2, just like was expected several months ago. morons. they still don't even have the right count anyway.

McHappy,

smart move, agree with andy.

McFearless said...

anyone have any money on zenyatta yesterday....that was an exciting race.

That is My Whine said...

Ben - What you and Andy have said is kind of what I have been bellyaching about.

There are a lot of people like you guys who know that EW is a key to help unlock "your" interpretation of where the market might be heading.

Yet there are a few out there who act like it should predict where the market is heading and when that does not happen they manipulate the data to show they were correct.

This of course confuses the issue.

Oh well I do think it is a valuable tool when employed properly and will be even more valuable when QE4Evah and other stupid games eventually end.

Mangy Mutt

call me ahab said...

I was soooooo close to picking up Seyi Ajirotutu for today's game-

dude already got a touch down

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a735bd32-e84b-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html#axzz14dA4kwY2
Time To End The Denial Over Mortgage Debt
By Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart

Two campaigns ended this week. In one, a hostile electorate reshaped Congress, to create a foil to Barack Obama’s policy ambitions. In the other, the Federal Reserve has spent the past few months trying to convince investors that it retains relevance even after its policy rate has lingered at zero for two years. Now the campaign season is over, further swift actions are needed to boost the fitful recovery of the American economy.

All campaigns are full of inflated promises. The build-up to the Fed’s latest quantitative easing has been no exception. The problems overshadowing expansion will not be lifted by inflating the Fed’s balance sheet. In particular, the hard job of addressing the unresolved problems in the mortgage market remains unaddressed.

Financial authorities have to end the charade that the problematic loans made as the real-estate bubble inflated will be repaid. Those loans and the securities using them as collateral had dicey prospects when first made and have only gone further south. After all, since the balloon popped, real estate prices have fallen 35 per cent on average, and unemployment is near 10 per cent.

These unresolved legacy assets are dragging down households’ spirits, clogging intermediaries’ balance sheets, and impeding the clearing of the real estate market. The private sector will not borrow, banks will not lend, and the fiscal prospects of the US government will be clouded.

call me ahab said...

ryan mathews-

what a bust

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