Morning Audibles

ERLECTION DAY...

I'm not going to add any more words to the crap pile of of political punditry... The fact is, it seems all but impossible to EVER, seriously EVER change a person's poltical affiliation...

Now, new issues may rise to the surface, and politicians and their antics may come and go... But oftentimes, (in the end), a political affiliation ends THE INVIVIDUAL simply into a group of people that they share (or think they share) the same POV with...

It's very true that in groups of people, you ought not discuss politics & religion (if your main goal is to keep peace)...

Blogs are a unique subset of that idea because one could classify a blog as "a group", yet is is mostly either an anonymous group or virtual one... To be banned of exiled from one simply means you can find another one without much effort, or having to leave your seat...

Sometimes, a "marginalized" blogger may feel slighted, due to the fact that their OPINION that they desired to express ended up being muted, and not coming into full blossom (like that world record setting whopper fart of a lifetime that finally gets dealt just as a jet airplane passes overhead)...

In any case... Whether you're an "angry white person" (as I read teabaggers described in yesterdays thread), OR whether you're "angry Michele Obama" (who wasn't proud or happy with her country until she happened to get FLOTUS honors)... I'm sure there's a candidate for you an your bias...

Why not just vote for this guy? Here's his story... Sounds like the PERFECT candidate to me...

Jar Jar Binks is a fictional character from the Star Wars films The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith... His primary role was to provide comic relief...



Jar Jar Binks first appears in The Phantom Menace as a bumbling Gungan from the planet Naboo. After his tribe banishes him for his clumsiness, he is nearly killed by a federation transport, only to be saved at the last minute by Jedi Master Qui-Gon Jinn (Liam Neeson) and his padawan Obi-Wan Kenobi (Ewan McGregor). The Jedi persuade Jar Jar's tribe to release him to their custody as a guide. He later goes with the Jedi and Queen Padmé Amidala (Natalie Portman) to the planet Tatooine, where he meets and befriends Anakin Skywalker (Jake Lloyd).

Jar Jar later appears in the film's climactic battle scene, where he joins his fellow Gungans in defeating the evil Trade Federation. For his heroics, he is made a general in the Gungan army, and Padmé gives him a ceremonial medal.

Jar Jar's role in Attack of the Clones is much smaller, but his actions are significant. Ten years after helping to save his planet, he is a delegate for the Galactic Senate, and as such plays a role in bringing his old friends Obi-Wan and Anakin (Hayden Christensen) back to Coruscant, where he greets them with enthusiasm. Later, on the behalf of Naboo and the Jedi, he gives a speech to the assembled Senate in favor of granting Chancellor Palpatine (Ian McDiarmid) vast emergency powers (and arguably starting the wheel that led to the Clone Wars, Galactic Empire, Galactic Civil War, and all the deaths therein.)

288 comments:

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ben22 said...

here you go, al these folks will be voting, these are the people that studied to be sure they make the right vote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_23Nt5XumaU&feature=player_embedded

The woman in the Red with the restore sanity sticker, she's got the world figured out, she wrapped it up and put it in her pocket, now she's gonna get loud and tell us how it really is.

Anonymous said...

GIB

CV said...

@McF

LOL... Somehow she seemed to think that Keynesian and "born in hawaii" had to do with the same thing...

CV said...

Jar Jar Binks bitchez!

Anonymous said...

Yes good luck guys, you don't seem spoilt for great choices there, in a political sense, much like our recent election down-under.
Still life seems to go on, regardless of which incompetence nutjob is in charge.
Best Bertie

Anonymous said...

that would be "incompetent" (yes, after several red wines)

CV said...

@Bertie

That's OK... We'll assume you were speaking Naboo-ese :-)

ben22 said...

CV,

looks like the restore sanity crowd is a bunch of scary white people longing for Woodstock.

ben22 said...

I've been to Naboo, not a bad place, and they have universal healthcare.

Anonymous said...

After several red wines at 8AM? You are my new hero :D

Getting drunk before voting actually sounds like a good idea.

Anonymous said...

AIG is set to receive an additional $22 billion from TARP
Restructuring American International Group will require an additional $22 billion of taxpayers' money, the U.S. Treasury Department said. AIG will withdraw the money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program and use it to buy back preferred stock from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Treasury said. Reuters

CV said...

@Anon

Bertie is from "Down Under" (Australia)... lol

cv said...

Election Day!

Let's celebrate by trashing the dollar!

Anonymous said...

Down under...OK. I still think it would be a good idea to vote drunk. It's the only way you can walk away from the polls with a smile

mcHAPPY said...

It will be interesting to see what happens at the open if 1189-1192 cannot hold.

mcHAPPY said...

It will also be interesting to see if DXY holds. Personally, I'd like to see a new low and a major move up after that. There has been enough grinding and range bound movement to let J6P think the coast is clear.

CV said...

@McHappy

These DXY levels go all the way back to 1995...

Here was a great SINGER chart on it last year...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Yen-Since-1991.jpg

What CV has been casually observing is the following...

When SPX hit 666, it 'seemed' (at the time) on a mission to print 600 (or in the low 600's)... That's the number CV was waiting for (and, in fact missed)...

Anyway... 600 (SPX) was basically a 1995 number...

Are we seeing the same thing here?

(Note some of Singers annotations... 145????... WWCBD [what would central bankers do]) if THAT creeped into the mix...?

karen said...

morning! ready or not, big moves today.. india and oz hiked rates.. dollar in the ditch.. the one trade is ON!

call me ahab said...

CV-

dude- did you take a course in intergalactic history-

I don't remember any of this

karen said...

zerohedge

GM bonds down 10% after proposed IPO price was far lower than bondholder expectations

call me ahab said...

this headline slays me-

"GOP Women Attacked as Nuts and Sluts"

"Nuts and sluts, bitches and whores: That’s the gauntlet conservative women must run to compete for the “honor” of political office today.

crazy bitchez

CV said...

an AHAB sighting!

Dude... I knew you were around somewhere because I saw the transactions on FF...

(and since you've missed some stuff... "dude" hereby means I'm referring to you as "Mr. President"...)

CV said...

@ahab

(9:44)...

Yeah... they should all go "eff" themselves right?...

CV said...

@karen

Thake a look at that Singer YEN chart that I linked above... (9:18)

It was from last year, but pretty cool in hindsight...

call me ahab said...

. . .and Karen-

don't forget to vote for "call me Senator" Boxer-

(she's not crazy)

Jennifer said...

Good morning, everyone!

CV -- noticed you posted a Singer chart. Did you know that he has his own blog? Only posts a chart or two once a week and nothing more, but its interesting nonetheless. The most recent charts deal with the dollar. I'm the kind of person that needs a little "interpretive text" with my charts, so I can look and draw my own conclusions, but I never know if I've seen what he wanted me to see. There was an annotated one sometime in the last week or two -- I was going to link to it here but I got behind in things and then it slipped my mind. Anyway, enjoy: http://singerprofitcharts.blogspot.com/

Jennifer said...

If comliance isn't a good fit for me (at the island hedge fund) maybe I can just pre-read 5,000 blogs a day and pass along the good ones to those who are better able to make some money from them!

call me ahab said...

CV-

speaking of FF- pretty sad that my kicker was my star offensive weapon-

and Moss is being waived (got me .8 points this week- weeee!)

maybe he'll end up at the Skins

CV said...

@Jenn

Thanks for that... Yeah I always liked Singers charts...

Not necessarily for being a guru or technician of anything... Mostly because they're very artistic...

I-Man has cool handwriting like that too...

But also... I like his "annotations"... he tends to factor in larger things that some forget to consider...

CV said...

@ahab

I can't see how he'll wind up at the Skins... Though it's possible that the Skins could claim him on waivers...

I think secretly and silently, the desire is that he falls back to the Patriots...

karen said...

CV.. thot i had referenced that 1995 top.. anyway I didn't see a 145 anecdote.. i do like his charts, tho!

McFearless said...

may as well fill that gap now

McFearless said...

My favorite Singer chart last year was IYR, he nailed it.

CV said...

Hell... I could see a team "claiming" him and then using him as BAIT to get a draft pick...

It would be kind of cheesy... But what the hey...

McFearless said...

polls were dead this morning, i was the only one there

call me ahab said...

I think that's what Moss wants- what else can be made of his post game speech

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/11/02/pimcos-bill-gross-dollar-could-fall-20/

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/02/moodys-downgrades-10-regional-banks-after-fed-dollars-dwindle

russian oil output hits 10 yr high
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6A10LQ20101102?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&rpc=401

karen said...

groundhog day!

CV said...

@karen

Sorry karen, my bad...

You have to look at THIS one to see the further annotations...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Yen-Since-1981.jpg

karen said...

tradefast

except for the Oct 19 dip, every close for the spx since Oct 13 has been within 6 points of 1180 & last 7 closes ranged 1182.34 to 1185.64

call me ahab said...

b22-

hope you pulled the lever for that crazy slut O'Donnell

(fwiw- I find her sexy)

see how easy it is to get my vote?

McFearless said...

I'm basically pretty sick of everyone's predictions about

1. the elections
2. the size of the fed's latest and greatest
3. what it all "means"

this week can't complete itself fast enough, I want my new moon now!

karen said...

Interesting pt of view: (reminds me of someone else i know!)


Excessive debt and speculative bubbles cannot be "fixed" with additional doses of debt and speculation. The Capitalist reality is this: if the Fed truly wanted to fix the U.S. economy rather than protect its over-extended, debt-ridden Financial System, then it would force the liquidation of trillions in bad debt and force a "marked to market" valuation on every balance sheet, household and corporate alike.

Instead, we have the "don't ask, don't tell" method of calculating asset values.

Anyone who believes a meager one or two trillion dollars in pump-priming can overcome $15-$20 trillion in overpriced assets and $10 trillion in uncollectible debt may well be disappointed.

The Fed's tinny little QE "bazooka" will be rolled over by the M-1 tanks of deleveraging and the recognition of $15-$20 trillion in losses.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov10/asset-deflation11-10.html

karen said...

CV.. thanks for THAT yen chart! : )

McFearless said...

nah, didn't vote for Christine O.

McFearless said...

speaking of mark to market, oh how funny it is that BRK-A basically participated in illegal fantasy land accounting. We heard about that for all of about maybe 6-7 hours before it was buried and now we've all moved on.

CV said...

@karen

145 would be a "trip" (to say the least)...

That's the GET YOUR ASS IN GOLD & SILVER (and buy a gas station) trade...

call me ahab said...

worst blunder of the week (sorry more football)

Shanahan's brilliant strategy to pull McNabb (who can toss a pass pretty damn far in his own right) and put in Grossman- supposedly for his 2 minute drill expertise- and his famed capability to throw a football a mile-

only to have it immediately fumbled- by Grossman- resulting in an immediate TD by Detroit-

Now the Skins go into the bye week with a QB controversy and a huge question mark on the intelligence of the Shanahan coaching staff

McFearless said...

Rex Grossman and the word expertise, that goes together about as well as Britney Spears as the opening act for a PanterA tribute band.

CV said...

@ahab

I posted here two weeks ago that... YOU WATCH... The Redskins will trade for (Jay Cutler - who Shanahan drafted in Denver)...

Frankly - I agree that it was kind of a dumb idea to pull McNabb in that moment... And Grossman is a TURNOVER MACHINE...

But... Look at it this way...

- McNabb really hasn't played well all season
- It's Shanahans team (so - QB controversy or not - it's going to be his way or the highway)
- They'll eventually get the personnel that Shanahan needs for his system
- McNabbs contract is only a year anyway
- McNabb is from Chicago

all equals...

McNabb & Cutler switch jobs next year... The MIKE MARTZ experiment will be over (as CV said it would be before the year began)...

If people would be patient with my prognostications, they eventually come to pass...

karen said...

Volcker: “It doesn’t alarm me that they’re thinking about buying Treasuries,” he said, referring to quantitative easing. “It’s the volume which they choose to do and we don’t know what that is,” he said, adding that “if money is too easy for too long, we’ll have more” asset bubbles.

ME: but we haven't deflated the existing ones!!

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atpvht5Ydh6o

call me ahab said...

no doubt-

I was listening to Sonny Jurgensen on the radio- as I was driving around- when he announced that Grossman was in-

and my assumption was that McNabb got hurt-

the 2 minute drill expertise was Shanahan's excuse for the switch-

as if coaches train backup QB's for the last 2 minutes of the game?

McFearless said...

Jay Cutler also sucks, and is maybe the biggest baby in the NFL. I've seen him flat out quit several times in games, as soon as thinks start going against him forget it.

McFearless said...

If money is too easy for too long?

How long has the funds rate effectively been 0 now? Is this longer than at any other time before? Wasn't the first round of QE started over a year ago, so back to back years of "easy money" is ok?

so, define "too long" for those of us that don't yet get the comfort level with all of this.

karen said...

Ben.. i was VERY disappointed with Volcker in that Bloomberg piece.. you echo my thots. : (

call me ahab said...

Cutler definitely had his bell rung by the Giants D

although he never looked that confident to me in the pocket before the Giant's beat down

CV-

I'm not sure what to make of Martz- in the end- a QB playing for him has to get rid of the ball quickly

karen said...

Ben, cuz i know you <3 Wilma..

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/wilmington-trust-warning-of-more-cre.html

karen said...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-simple-but-critical-level-to-watch-on-spx-weekly/

must read!

karen said...

tradermark: Keep an eye on the $85 level (would be a new recent high) and then $87+ (to take out April highs) ... almost every commodity on earth has gone parabolic since Jackson Hole, Wyoming but oilhas been out of service. If you are a fan of the Bernanke playbook (and who isn't!), "recovery" = "inflation" = "oil to the moon Alice!". I for one am openly rooting for $150 since the most regressive tax in the nation is a "good thing", but first we need $90.... let's do this Ben.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/11/keep-eye-on-oil.html

CV said...

@ahab (10:28)

There was only ONE QB who ever matched that criteria (and he's now on Dancing With the Stars)...

Remember that Kurt Warner only came in because Trent Green (under Martz) got his bell rung and was "concussioned" out of the league within a short time...

McFearless said...

karen,

personally I never really got the love affair with tall paul. he's a central banker, after all.

in the calcrisk thread:

By the end of the third quarter, we had evaluated more than 92% of our Commercial Real Estate/Construction and mortgage loans, and the trend line is not encouraging. It appears to us, that there is no significant economic or real estate recovery on the horizon. This gives us little assurance that our loan portfolio will strengthen significantly in the near term, and our capital position will not erode further.”


What else is there to say but two simple words

no shit.

karen said...

CV.. why hasn't anyone asked you to be on Dancing with the Stars?

My husband told me that Sarah Palin's daughter gets $30k per speaking engagement.. He also told me Austin was a boomtown..

CV said...

The Fed buying Treasuries is only an excuse for the government to continue spending money in the name of "stimulus" (then eventually STEAL the money away [taxes] from the citizenry)...

WE'RE THE GOVERNMENT & WE'RE HERE TO HELP

I suppose, "in theory", we ought to elect teabaggers to STOP THIS INSANITY, but I doubt it'll really change when their asses get warm in their seats...

You can expect that about as much that you could have expected "Hope & Change" in 2008 and ending all wars...

call me ahab said...

. . .man-

breaks my heart thinking back to the "Greatest Show on Turf"

that was some fun football to watch-

Warner- a class act (and knew when to hang it up)

McFearless said...

"My husband told me that Sarah Palin's daughter gets $30k per speaking engagement"

it my best Sarah Palin:

Say it aint so!

speaking engagements? to talk about what, exactly?

GIB

Leftback said...

LB thinks that we see the FX and commodity markets roll over before the equity markets. My picks for soon-to-be wounded flamingos are EURUSD and silver, as I can't see anything that is more over-extended.

Emerging mark-ups and gold miners look expensive too!

CV said...

@karen

"CV.. why hasn't anyone asked you to be on Dancing with the Stars?"

---

That should be obvious...

When they change the name of the show to "DANCING WITH THE ANGRY WHITE MALE UNABOMBERS THAT SHOULD GO EFF THEMSELVES"... Then I'm sure my agent will be getting a call...

CV said...

Groundhog Day...

McFearless said...

given the tea parties great passion around "patriotism" which is translated, it seems, into "support the military" it's hard to imagine they would be big spending cutters if elected.

this year is the year the tea party fights to discover it's own image it would seem, they are still evolving. They'll be more important in 2012 and forward.

It was nice to see a few libertarian candidates on the ticket here this morning, also had a few from the Blue Enigma Party.

McFearless said...

CV,

Will your agent also be negotiating by screaming:

Show me the nickels bitchez!

karen said...

CV.. you will love this!!

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-things-will-get-better-letter-2010-11

call me ahab said...

b22-

if it is to be true libertarian leaning party- then the military as a preemptive force would be off the table-

a la Ron Paul

call me ahab said...

. . .or Pat Buchanan

McFearless said...

ahab,

exactly, but this is certainly NOT the view of the tea party from what I can tell, which immediately, in my mind, makes null and void much of the expressed concern over out of control government spending.

CO made a point to be loud and proud of her unwavering support of the military, for example.

CV said...

@McF (10:47)

Look - It is destined to eventually go the way of EVERYTHING that eventually esatblishes an identity...

It'll continue to get "fractioned" off until there are about 1000 different variations of the original theme...

It happens this way in EVERYTHING relating to religion & politics... (and that's why they can never come to any agreement in the end)...

My "individualist" tendencies come directly from having wasted my time trying to reach a CONSENSUS with people... I respect humans for things OTHER than what their beliefs, are... I respect them simply for the fact that they are trying to do the same thing as me...

SURVIVE

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-should-issue-heartfelt-apology-2010-11

CV said...

@McF (10:48)

ROR - Exactly!

BTW - I'm just banging the drum on this NICKLES thing because I'm hoping that 'Gisele' will eventually hear about it and seek me out for advice...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Next week, Peyton takes a bus driver from the downtown Indianapolis bus line and after one week of practice, throws him two 30 yard touchdown passes....

karen said...

tradefast

gold hit $GLD $NEM ugly

karen said...

uup at hod.. time to hang on to your hats?

CV said...

@ahab (10:52)

See there you go...

I'd basically be in favor of that... The main reason we have a military is to be able to muscle ourselves around to protect CHEAP MIDDLE EAST OIL...

Wind that down, and America takes a huge step backwards and devolves into a state that reflects everything, ECONOMICALLY, that CV has expressed on blogs for almost 2 years...

I'm fine with that (lifestyle)... Most Americans AREN'T...

That's the difference...

call me ahab said...

b22-

truthfully- I am not really sure of the tenets of the tea party folk-

are there any? Is it really a party?

Leftback said...

LB just looked at his P/L for the year for the Schadenfreude Asset Management fund empire, and is even happier that he has been quietly de-risking these last few days.

All of our portfolios are pantsing SPY and AGG, which might be your equity and fixed income benchmarks, quite comfortably. Considering all we did in most cases was buy Treasuries and then sell them to buy high yield and emerging market equities, this all seems childishly simple.

The dollar turn seems very close now, big double bottom may have just been put in overnight after the RBA move.

The Black Swan here for the markets is an even bigger Republican advance than expected, b/c nobody wants that, not even the GOP. It may happen, b/c minorities, young people and the left are going to stay home in droves.

CV said...

@Bruce

Next week will be a hell of a contrast...

Peyton vs. Vick

Leftback said...

"Is it really a party?"

More importantly, can they make tea properly?

CV said...

@ahab

CV is going to start...

... a "TOGA" PARTY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U74I15exr8o

call me ahab said...

in the end- I just like the idea of voting for sexy crazy sluts and bitchez-

what can I say

McFearless said...

ahab,

I can't answer that either, this is why I don't agree with anyone's general descriptions of what the tea party is, at this time you just can't generalize them in a way that helps you understand the party any better. I do know for certain though that CO was a major backer of the military per her comments the last several months.

CV said...

@ahab (11:08)

Well if you do... at least when they go on MEET THE PRESS, you can argue with them in this way...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7S_XWuKpHc

McFearless said...

meet the press....pfft

I want my leaders to appear on the View or Oprah.

Oprah!

shows that matter.

call me ahab said...

Jane you ignorant slut . . .classic stuff there

sadly I don't believe I have an ignorant slut to vote for here in Virginia

Jennifer said...

ES is struggling at the VWAP line...maybe it really is groundhog day. Taking the 3 year old to vote with me -- that'll be interesting. We had these computer touchscreens at the last election, no one over the age of 50 could figure out how to use them.

72bat said...

jen -
here in ohio, one can still receive a paper ballot on demand. they generally don't promote that fact and often poll workers are totally unaware of the fact or resist producing one

Jennifer said...

bat -- we do too, it was the paper ballots that had the "typo" changing Rich Whitney's name to Rich Whitey. Hysterical, but totally criminal.

72bat said...

karl d's latest horse he's riding (my bolding):
Beware margin collapse folks. It's the elephant in the room that nobody's talking about, but not only current equity prices but forward expectations are predicated on margin expansion.

so true.

McFearless said...

janis joplin told me that

margin's just another word for credit left to lose

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:
I suspect you watched the game. I thought it remarkable that the Colts had a first down inside the 5 and stayed in a spread offense because they had no meat at tight end or receiver. If things are that bad, put in a lineman at tight end and run the thing in the end zone. (They kicked a field goal from the 1/2 yard line...)

I don't understand how Polian and the big shots keep missing out on fielding a full team of offense and defense including all the interior line positions.

Having a great quarterback and receivers is ok, but it ain't gonna win another super bowl...

Matthew said...

@leftback:

Very few Yanks care about tea anymore. It was a pleasant surprise for me when my mother bought me some Darjeeling for Christmas. I enjoyed smelling it as much as drinking :D

================================================
The tea party is a huge cloud of general direction anger. They are mad as hell, but they don't know exactly why. I can't imagine them fixing anything if they can't even figure out which part is broken.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I just wanted to tell you again, I enjoy reading your musings about how you invest for your clients. I must be a fan...

Bruce

CV said...

@McF (11:37)

Now THAT's clever! :-)

karen said...

new high in EEM and ECH today.. P&F on $bkx is 35.. i won't hold my breath!

karen said...

alaidi

New highs are always followed by 5-6% pullbacks. See the 2007/8 pattern in $AUDUSD $$

karen said...

forget to mention new FXA high..

karen said...

oops on TBT.. went below my no hold zone.. (not that I have anyway..

CV said...

@Bruce

Good observation about the Colts inside the 5...

But here's the thing...

What's the difference, really, that Dallas Clark is out... He's a little bit of a better blocking TE, but they also used to send him into the middle to catch passes in that zone too...

Since 2007, he has twice the number of TD catches that Reggie Wayne has from that tight...

So not much has REALLY changed (from before)...

Also... the Colts are #2 in the league in converting red zone appearances into TD's (maybe 1st after last nights game)... So I doubt they're really sweating at the moment...

The most impressive thing TO ME last night were Freeny and Mathis... Freeny looked possessed...

I hope they crumple Mike Vick next week like a Japanese beer can... Anyway - that will be an interesting match-up to watch... Philly's o-line is O-L-D Old!

karen said...

please sit down before reading: "Consumer confidence is key to any sustainable recovery. The best way to boost consumer confidence is for the stock market to go up." - JA, who else!!

laughing hysterically! you don't need a job, you just need for the market to go up...

http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/2010/11/01/a-better-way-for-the-fed-to-spend-800-billion/

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-is-insisting-a-broke-man-stick-to-his-promise-to-pay-them-126-million-2010-11

"So really, this just looks like Citi not doing sufficient research on who they gave a $126 million - personally guaranteed - loan to. And thanks to their insisting that he give still give them the money back, when he's most likely got only a small fraction of it (click here to see his bankruptcy filing), it looks like they still aren't doing enough research on the situation."

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, CV, the one thing I also didn't understand about Houston last night is Why did they abandon the run? Mediocre teams have made a living running on the Colts since Jacksonville showed them how to do it years ago, and in the first game Houston ran on Indy just fine. Not nearly as much effort at running last night...didn't understand that thinking...

karen said...

new video: Danny

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/11/02/markets-slow-back-and-fill-on-election-day/

Leftback said...

"New highs are always followed by 5-6% pullbacks."

This is more or less what LB is expecting to happen. A big pullback in things like EEM, Aussie, precious metals and a more modest pullback in SPY and the dividends. TLT will be a slow bleeder once the smoke clears.

Leftback said...

Greed is really trumping fear in these markets right now, we definitely need a little reminder, before we have the EoY rally.

LB has some toes in on the short side, but not in equities or bonds.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

thanks for that, in real life I'm very exciting. haha.

given our mention of the "homeland" usage yesterday I have some more updates as we've discussed all year on our march toward authoritarianism here in the states:

1. Secret GPS Installations Upheld.

in recent ruling by the US Court of Appeals, which applies to California and 8 other western states. This states that there is no need for a search warrant or to inform vehicle owners, TIME reported: "government agents can sneak onto yoru property in the middle of the night, put a GPS device on the bottom of your car and keep track of everywhere you go" in the same article a dissenting judge wrote "1984 may have come a bit later than predicted, but it's here at last."

2. Mobile Airport-Style X-Ray Machines See Inside Cars.

In May, Alan Hall from the Socionomics Institute wrote:
"A single successful US car bomb or improvised explose device (IED) would expand airport like security measures to a far broader landscape. The Department of Defense is already preparing for this eventuality."

According to Forbes on 8/24, a Mass. company has sold US and foreign government agencies:
...more than 500 backscatter X-ray scanners mounted in vans that can be driven past neighboring vehicles to see their contents...Law enforcement agencies have also deployed the vans to search for vehicle-based bombs in the US.

the exec director of the Electronic Privacy Info Center calls it "one of the most intrusive technologies conceivable."

3. document checks well inside the borders

this is really a pretty old forecast as these guys stated in 2003 that before the bear market was over you'd need papers to travel from state to state in the US.

The NYTimes has recently reported of the dramatic increase in US Border Patrol transportation checks miles inside the border....the northern border, that is. The article describes more surveillance on the Chicago to NYC train despite the fact that the train never corsses into Canada.

"Armed Border Patrol agents routinely board the train, question passengers about their citizenship and take away noncitizens who cannot produce satisfactory immigration papers."

As SI notes:

Only a few years ago the National Geographic Channel kept its focus squarley on the Earth's beauty and the diversity of its cultures. More recently the channels Border Wars series enjoyed the highest ratings ever for a premire episode on the channel.

McFearless said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
McFearless said...

" TLT will be a slow bleeder once the smoke clears."

I agree, and so TBT is NOT the ideal way to short govies if someone is inclined to do so.

karen said...

weekly xhb may have a 1.5 year h&s in the works..

CV said...

@Bruce

You're right about "why did they abandon the run"...

The pick 6 KILLED them (early)... Houston played fairly well on defense in the first half...

But by the time the 2nd half kickoff came (and the Colts got the ball and scored)... it was over...

karen said...

this is absolutely it for me.. can someone pls make XRT a dbl top.. do you realize it is higher now than it was in 2007 when people were spending with abandon?! and if 2010 doesnt spell dbl top, i give up.

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Leftback said...

TBT is a trading vehicle only. LB has used it for swings as long as 3-5 days but not longer. It is probably best used as a hedge for fixed income holdings by experienced participants.

LB fancies some pizza.

karen said...

fiatcurrency

*SEC FILES INSIDER TRADING SUIT VS. 6 HEDGE FUNDS ON HGSI: CNBC

call me ahab said...

all have a good day

karen said...

ahab.. Thanks! YOU have a good day! : )

karen said...

P&F on C is 1.25.. no worries.. tho.. said Tepper, laughing smugly.

karen said...

tradefast

age old question - if traders didn't know that 1193 is 200 WK MA, would the market be stalled at this level?

calculatedrisk

LPS: Over 4.3 million loans 90+ days or in foreclosure http://goo.gl/fb/bQOlh

Leftback said...

UFB, how can these clowns have lost money this year? This was really not a very difficult year, and in Asian stocks. C'MON, MAN...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-02/karmali-said-to-shut-cyprus-lane-hedge-fund-after-losing-10-in-14-months.html

Leftback said...

"and if 2010 doesnt spell dbl top, i give up."

Karen, can you show us a double top....?

mcHAPPY said...

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker&page=2

As usual lately, a really good read from Denninger.

McFearless said...

I've got to imagine this won't wrap up until that 1202 is el closo'd

Leftback said...

People

Irish bonds are really in a bad way. I mean, they are selling every rally, after the interventions. If this blows up there will be a big rush to the safety of Bucky.

McFearless said...

Leftback,

do you think the Euro could survive a further banking crisis over there? I already know it wouldn't survive reality, but what about a crisis in our current fantasy land world?

Leftback said...

The Irish banks are a crisis already, so are the Greek banks. It has already been swept under the rug a couple of times. The Euro can survive Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but not Spain. That's the big one.

My feeling is that efforts to save PIGS bond markets will bring the Euro lower. Much lower, and that upcoming easing by Japan will leave Bucky with little option but to rally.

McFearless said...

I haven't forgotten the spanish prime ministers interview with maria B.

I hope none of you did.

Obama said...

CV,

It's time for you and your Republican friends to move to the back of the bus.

CV said...

@LB (1:14)

good point...

Leftback said...

Eventually a government somewhere is going to throw a big bank and its bondholders under the bus, rather than bail them out and bankrupt the country.

McFearless said...

is that Obama or Andre' from Outkast?

DL said...

LB @ 1:38

Probably not in my lifetime.

CV said...

@Obama (1:36)

"Dude"... I've BEEN at the back of the bus this whole time...

Do me a favor... DUDE... Open the Emergency Exit and I'll jump the fuck off the end of it...

Then you and your romper room cronies will be rid of me and you can all go on with your singing chorus...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_6KuYtc0Z8

Leftback said...

Well, either that or we are going to see a full-blown government bond market break down, with all of its attendant horrors. I would not rule out the likelihood of a reintroduced punt or drachma. These events are far more likely to occur in a smaller European country than in Japan or the US.

karen said...

2535.28 is the April high and number for the $compq to beat today..

CV said...

@Leftback (1:38)

Let me guess... It'll be a country with a kindergarten military establishment...

CV said...

Seems to me that I put up a "I can't drive 55" video up back in April (just before the 2010 highs)...

Guess what people?

We're getting near 50 days on the latest bear market rally...

For HELP (defining a top)... I'd suggest perusing the comment threads in bergstens blog (back in April)...

Most of it was pretty akin to "look at stocks go!" (to paraphrase)...

Leftback said...

LB just took down another 3% of equity exposure (sold a bunch of SPY). Now we are down to about 17% longs, mostly divvies and 13% high yield, everything else is cash. This market is beginning to feel a little bit spooky, and LB's "Spidey Sense" is very active.

DL said...

“a full-blown government bond market break down, with all of its attendant horrors”.


No argument with that, although it could be many years before it happens with a G7 country.

Leftback said...

Yes, it will be a smaller country - but one that is too big to bail (Ireland), or too annoying for anyone to care about (Greece).

Leftback said...

Absolutely nobody thinks that the equity market can correct more than 2% here and absolutely nobody thinks the dollar can rally....

Get long BUCKY, BITCHEZ...

DL said...

I just wonder how the French people will feel about bailing out another country after their own retirement age has been raised.

DL said...

I'd feel better about trying to short this market if the VIX got back to 19.

(Still long at the moment).

karen said...

$bkx still red on the day..

karen said...

but Qs have far exceeded April highs

karen said...

you can't tell me the $compq can be this close to 2535 and not get there..

karen said...

ZH is running this story as well: Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Social Security Administration asked its inspector general to investigate how a $32.3 billion mistake skewed its statistics on 2009 wages in the U.S.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCXUbSCKHVUE

McFearless said...

leftback, I think a short trade into november expy is probably the right trend but I can't put it on here, just don't see enough in the charts....I'm thinking maybe the next best trade is just to sit through a drop that *should come next and then be long for the end of December.

time will tell

DL said...

QQQQ...?

It's all about AAPL

AmenRa said...

I'm waiting on Thursday.

Leftback said...

McF

I am not short, except in the currencies and commodity areas, and those positions are not large.

If enough nutters get elected, the dollar will rally overnight, no matter what the Fun Bunch do tomorrow.

CV said...

@LB

I'm long Bucky...

It's just that my timing sucks... :-)

McFearless said...

I'm just waiting on a friend (some call him bucky)

CV said...

@McF

I forgot to say...

Kudos on that WL call (and info)...

McFearless said...

LB,

if you are short silver I hope you nail that bitch, it's been my nemesis this year.

CV said...

I'm DYING for silver to get bitch slapped...

I'm telling you though... This move has been interesting because, TO ME... It's pointing the way to go...

Gotta buy the next silver trough (and I'm talking MACRO here, I'm not talking a little correction)...

Basically... when BUCKY makes it's next PEAK...

CV is "all in" physical silver...

karen said...

DL.. just forwarded you an MS aapl report..

Apple (AAPL $308, target $375)

China Still Underappreciated as a Potential Growth Driver

We see 27% incremental revenue and 44% operating income potential in 2012, based on: 1) China strategist Jerry Lou’s view that China is undergoing a “megatransition” from being the leading roducer of goods to the leading consumer of them; 2) evidence of strong uptake of Apple products among higher-income China consumers from our November 2009 AlphaWise survey; and 3) BMW’s recent success, which we see as a template for Apple’s growth. If our numbers are right, Apple then would have to grow revenue by just 19% and operating income by 11% in the rest of the world – a marked deceleration from LTM 43%/37% ex-Asia growth – to hit the current consensus two-year EPS growth forecast of 21% (and our 22%). See attached for full report...

Leftback said...

That bitch owes me and you both. But it's a double top and there are a lot of weak hands... so we'll see...

Leftback said...

LB likes AAPL, but it is due for a rinsing, along with many other not so nutritious fruit....

CV said...

Silver is going to be the "backed by" choice when the world decides that it's experiment with fractional reserve banking has run a ground...

It will therefore have a higher UTILITY value than gold...

Gold has been "priced in" somewhat... Silver still has a lot of ground to cover...

DL said...

K @ 2:20

Yes, I see.

I will begin studying it in due course.

CV said...

@karen

I just laugh when I hear these AAPL calls...

Not that the price targets won't be reached... But they will all be reached ON PAR with a dollar decline...

What's the point?

CV said...

@karen

IOW... At this point... WITH ALL U.S. EQUITIES...

Assuming a dollar rebound (and massive equity price correction)...

At the NEXT bottom... I want physical commodities... NOT fucking AAPL stock...

McFearless said...

the thing about metals is when they do correct, especially after moves like this, they are typically pretty violent.

As for apple, while it's always dangerous to say you have little doubt about something market related, I don't doubt much they should hit whatever earnings targets were made up for them, but so what, what mattes is what people are willing to pay for those earnings, not what the actual numbers are.

it appears currently apple at any price is a screaming buy, but it's a fools game to extrapolate trends like that.

CV said...

that is... of course... Until equities reach low single digits in P/E's and pay decent dividends...

McFearless said...

and speaking of Apple, you guys know I've had 4 different retail clients in the last week tell me that

GOOG and AT&T are going out of business because Verizon is going to offer the iPhone through VZ.

I really got a kick out of these statements.

karen said...

I still have in my possession MS's Suncor Energy Report from July 2006. "We continue to view Suncor as a core holding. We maintain our Overweight rating and our 6-9 month target of C$99. We have raised our oil prices in ’06 (mark to market) and ’07 (to reflect Doug Terreson’s new price deck). We also increased capital costs on the Voyageur project as noted above. We highlight assumptions / sensitivities within."

(within 2 months it lost 25% of value.. then doubled by May 2008 to $74.28, before crashing to 14.52 that October..)

McFearless said...

for every wilmington trust success there's a story about how smart you thought you were when you doubled on AAPL and got out at $175.

damn......talk about leaving something on the table

CV said...

@McF @karen

GIB...

And just think!... Today, the GIB goes to the voting booths...

Hey LB... you're not a citizen with voting rights here in the US (or are you)?...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/its-official-the-government-wont-be-getting-its-money-back-from-the-gm-bailout-2010-11

CV said...

@McF (2:30)

Don't feel so bad... I've got these golfing buddies, right?

Well - last Sunday I was at the clubhouse, and one of them was asking me about Las Vegas Sands (that he bought pretty near the 2009 lows)...

How am I supposed to call him an IDIOT? - lol

karen said...

IMF speeding up gold sales..

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92bc13ae-e5e1-11df-af15-00144feabdc0.html

McFearless said...

CV,

I likely voted the same way as most of the GIB today, at least in a few races, but I had different motivations, I stuck to my

vote objective

idea today

now we'll see if these cats are around when the inevitable comes to town, if not then I wasted all of 3 minutes of my time today.

McFearless said...

LVS...yep, nice trade he made there, as for explaining what to do with it now....ha, welcome to a small taste of my world.

karen said...

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/11/citibank-sucks.html

Leftback said...

LB is disenfranchised.
TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION, old chap.

At least I can't be held responsible....

CV said...

@karen (2:34)

You know...

If I wanted to... I could come up with (off the top of my dome)... 20 or more reasons as to WHY the IMF might be "speeding up gold sales"...

I'm not going to get in to it now...

But it would be an interesting topic to discuss "theoretically" in the future...

The thing with me though is that I hate THEORETICAL discussions (that's why I'm not a liberal)... I prefer REALITY...

McFearless said...

last night I'm in a meeting with client, shows me his second quarter 401k statement, return for the period was 6.4% exactly....so you can do math and annualize that.

client says, "I think I'm going to stop putting money in here, it's not going up much"

yep....it's just like that.

Not that anyone should freak out about that being their annual return, because yeah, it's not high, but you still MADE MONEY, but I had to take 10 effing minutes to explain that it basically was 25% annualized and that that's "good", not to mention the match he's getting and the tax deduction....Monday nights in John E. land.

CV said...

@McF (2:36)

That's EXACTLY what I thought when he asked me...

I swear, I burst out laughing in that moment... But the first THOUGHT (other than the spontaneous laughter), was thinking about you and your clients...

I couldn't do your job for all the gold in Babylon...

It's like when clients ask me how they can "shape their body" by losing this little particular inch right above their hip...

My temptation is to hand them a meat cleaver...

Leftback said...

Wouldn't it be fun if:

FOMC announces less than expected QE. Dollar rallies.
BoJ PILES ON by selling yen, amplifying the BUCKY BOUNCE.
ECB announces more mini bailouts by buying peripheral bonds.
IMF and CBs roll out some cheeky gold sales.
BUCKY goes on a screaming short squeeze, unwinding carry trades.
A CLAVADISTA ensues in the commodity markets.
GS, JPM and others pile on by shorting PMs heavily.
ZERO HEDGIES squeal loudly. Conspiracy theories abound.

Just a thought. One must learn to think like the weasel.

CV said...

@LB

TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION...

Isn't that the ULTIMATE suck?

I love the Washington DC car license plates that have that as a slogan (because they have no representation in Congress)...

OTOH - I'm like... Well... Who TF would you elect to "represent" you... Marion Barry? - lol

Leftback said...

Ben

LOL.... if JOHN E is banking 25% annually, he is the MAN and we have a job for him here at SCHADENFREUDE.

Marion Barry said...

CV

Wanna score some CRACK and HOs..?

DL said...

CV @ 2:44

DC license plates:

Clinton did that in his last month in Office.

karen said...

TBT trend up still quite intact, btw..

CV said...

@McF (2:40)

Or... not to mention that the... HOPEFULLY (relative security from armageddon - along the way)... that he might have enjoyed...

karen said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22americans-are-exceptional%22-rick-santelli-and-the-birth-of-the-tea-party-535561.html

Leftback said...

K.,

If they do a bit less QE than expected, a lot of instruments may sell off, 2s to 10s, for example, but the 30y (TLT) will rally a bit, as the 10s30s spread is in part an inflation barometer and it is at record wides - so that will come in slightly. After that, we can short with impunity, I think.

CV said...

@LB

"One must learn to think like the weasel"

I'll go along with that... But if we're talking WEASELS here... Why not go "all the way" and make it a WOLVERINE?

Leftback said...

LB isn't a graduate of University of Michigan.
LB is a "Light Blue".

McFearless said...

CV,

ha, most of the time you just laugh this stuff off, but sure, it's got to be more than the money to deal with that kind of stuff 10-12 hours every day. I hope to write a good book about regular people and their money at some point in the future.

left,
I actually had to double check his statement because I allocated the thing and didn't realize it was up that much. I was happy when he showed me but almost let out a WTF, had forgotten as I was not intending to review that account and so didn't look it over prior to the meeting that I had him place a fairly sizeable amount into some junk bonds within the plan and some company stock over the summer, we went into the money market fund last night...clients choice of course, if there are any RSJ's reading this.

obsevation/meeting take-away: it's funny how we've gone from break-even being "awesome" to +25% being "not great, why am I doing this" in about 18 months.

CV said...

How ironic is it, at SURVIVOR CAPITAL, that we had dual posts at (2:46) that said...

---Marion Barry said...
CV

Wanna score some CRACK and HOs..?

November 2, 2010 2:46 PM
DL said...
CV @ 2:44

DC license plates:

Clinton did that in his last month in Office.

November 2, 2010 2:46 PM

---

Clinton just can't escape those Ho's can he?

DL said...

Surely "they" are not going to let the correction start before retesting the 1200 level...(?)

DL said...

Also, Clinton auctioned off several pardons in his last month in Office.

CV said...

@LB

Light Blue?

Is that like Oxford? Columbia?... or Tiffany's?

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