Sunday Evening Post

Good Evening Capitalists,

Last week I wrote this in regard to the upcoming elections and Quantitative Easing:

Given that these ideas are already being discounted, a "sell the news" outcome seems like a high probability. In other words, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the market rallies hard this week. It would take something unexpected--like a Republican takeover of the Senate or a shockingly huge amount of QE2 in order keep this market rallying.

WRONG! It seems that yours truly was unknowingly riding in the "herd" of traders who were anticipating a "sell the news" reaction to last week's events. Oh well.

It's probably worth noting that amid all the "sturm and drang" discussion over the Dollar, Bucky was 'only' down 0.9% last week. As AmenRa noted on Friday's Daily Wrap, the DXY exhibited a bullish engulfing pattern after setting a new low. These are key ingredients of a "bear trap." The first few days of the week will be important to determine if such a "trap" is in place. If Bucky probes the lows (sub-76.00) again, then there was no "bear trap." If however, Bucky, can build on Friday's gains, then we'll have a situation where numerous traders might get that "trapped" feeling, like they just sold the lows.

Embedded below are two reports for you viewing pleasure: Gold and the S&P Update.

Hope everyone enjoyed the extra hour of sleep--I know I did!

Gold Report 7 Nov 2010


Market Update 7 Nov 10

163 comments:

mcHAPPY said...

Nice work, Andy.

I subscribed to NeoWave. They keep ALL their forecasts and trading services there for people to go back and view - I mean alllll the way back. And I have taken advantage of this looking at the charts from the end of June onwards.

A few observations:

He has had it correct more often than not.
When he is incorrect, he throws it away - NO EGO.
He is not afraid to say 'Stay out'.
He is not afraid to say 'I was wrong'.
He doesn't keep looking for reasons to make his count 'work'.
He offers clear entries and stops.

I think the EWT and EWFF are good reads but not at $60/mo. The STU is dogshit - 'nuff said. When the STU/EWI was telling subscribers at the the biggest declines happen when the market is oversold, GN was telling people get ready for the first buying opportunity since late January.

I can't wait for Santa to bring MEW.

mcHAPPY said...

Wow. Going back farther in the NeoWave charts, GN pretty much told everyone on April 26 what would happen near term, then on May 24 he laid out the next few months.

Just incredible.

Andy, your counts have been very similar so big kudos to you as well. I cannot wait to get his book to be able to understand the methodology.

Andy T said...

mcHappy--

I find Glenn Neely to be an excellent wave counter. I only subscribe to his Gold counts for a few bucks a month. I don't see any of his S&P stuff.

Our gold counts are different in terms of the bigger picture.

I don't like being too far removed from his counts, though. He's generally right a lot more often than he is wrong.

He makes guys like Stu Hochberg/EWI look like chumps.

mcHAPPY said...

@Andy,

I have to agree.

The only problem now is I've no doubt cursed poor ol' Glenn. lol

knows how to count said...

I'll sell you my counts for 1/2 of a few bucks each month...

Here's a preview...

UP-DOWN-UP-UP-DOWN

I'll admit if I'm wrong but I'm not wrong very often. Besides, I'll admit to just about anything once I have your check in my pocket :)

karen said...

Andy, thanks! I loved your commentary.. A quick music hit for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkh9ncvkXCQ

or if you want the lyrics and tunes:

http://www.hotnewsonglyrics.com/kid-cudi-feat-cee-lo-green-scott-mescudi-vs-the-world-lyrics.html

karen said...

"Mr. Meltzer was unconvinced. In an interview here, he said the Fed was pumping money into an economy already awash in cash, noting that commercial banks have been stockpiling money — through their deposits at the Fed, known as reserves — instead of lending it.

“There isn’t a liquidity problem,” Mr. Meltzer said. “We have over a trillion dollars in excess reserves. Idle money is sitting on corporate balance sheets.”"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/08/business/economy/08fed.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

2small2bail said...

FF - CV, How will I save face and get to 7-7 if I make that trade? (laughing) ...although Moss did graduate from the U - . Put JC or the law firm in the trade w/Garrard and I'll accept :-)

karen said...

new C gossip: Citi Debt Funds Probed by SEC (whatever!)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303738504575568411913835550.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

Vikram Pandit said...

I'm scared sh*tless.

DL said...

Editorial in today’s WSJ entitled: “California: The Lindsay Lohan of States”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703506904575592612400443370.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

The first paragraph:

“Listen up, California. The other 48 states—your cousin New York excluded—are sick of your bratty arrogance. You're the Lindsay Lohan of states: a prima donna who once showed some talent but is now too wasted to do anything with it”.

cv said...

@2small

I can re-work the trade... It's just ideas, but you have to make a counter offer...

Fantasy Trades are funny (I'm speaking to the FF crew here)... Why does it seem that when you make a fantasy trade offer, and if a person doesn't like it, they take it as an affront to their manhood?

It's just a TRADE idea (yes or no is fine)... But people sometimes respond like you want to corhhole their daughter or something... lol...

It's like... "OK... I'll trade you Garrard for Matthews, & in that deal I get to put your son in a girl scout uniform, and take your daughter out to the barn"... Whaddaya say?

ror

2small2bail said...

FF - CV, I like ideas so I countered here and there - I need QBs since mine get injured a lot and my CAR RBs are now running backwards. I can throw in an old box of Hardy Boys when my son finishes them, but I don't have a girl scout uniform so you're on your own there.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Hussman:

Employment Notes

As Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Management observed (via John Mauldin), "The October employment situation was dramatically weaker than the headline 159k increase in the payroll employment measure. The broader household employment fell 330k. The only reason that the unemployment rate held steady is that 254k dropped out of the labor force. The civilian labor force participation rate fell to a new low of 64.5%, indicating that people do not believe that jobs are available, but this serves to hold the unemployment rate down. In addition, the employment-to-population ratio fell to 58.3%, the lowest level in nearly 30 years. The most distressing aspect of this report is that the US economy lost another 124k full-time jobs, thus bringing the five-month loss to 1.1 million in this most critical of all employment categories."

Andy T said...

The "Lindsay Lohan of States"...classic.

cv said...

@2small2bail...

Dude... You need some major renovation done to your roster...

Right now you're holding:

Kenny Britt - out for season
Matt Stafford - re-injured shoulder this weekend
Jonathan Stewart - Injured this weekend vs. Saints
Beanie Wells - limited, knee swelling
Carson Palmer - limited (noodle arm)
DeAngelo Williams limited - injury
Jason Hanson injured this weekend vs. Jets, unless you have Ndmakong Suh as your handcuff...

Alright look... You need backs & a QB... NOW... I'll trade you Garrard & the Law Firm (and toss in Chris Cooley)

FOR

Marcedes Lewis & Hines Ward

2small2bail said...

FF - CV, I like it. Done if approved.

ben22 said...

McHappy,

In early September when GN projected out his current count, he stated (not direct quote)

"this count forecasts that the April highs will be challenged or exceeded before this wave is over and that is likely to occur before year end. This period of time should coincide with improving economic data making everyone convinced it is safe to get back in"

we have quotes like these everywhere after the "stellar" jobs report our boy Bruce highlights again this morning:

"The economy continues to slowly improve, much to the consternation of the recessionistas"

when appropriate, pundits will use the "improving economy" as a reason to buy stocks

karen said...

ECB Bought Half-Billion In Bonds Last Week
By Jamie Coleman || November 8, 2010 at 14:33 GMT
The ECB bought 500 bln EUR in bonds last week (presumably Irish), bringing its totalpurchases to $64 bln.
Trichet hinted at last week’s press conference that the ECB had been active in markets. Spreads continue to widen, so the ECB buying is proving to be ineffective.
EUR/USD is a shade lower after Juncker said the dollar is not where it should be versus EUR. This despite him pillorying the Fed for its risk monetary policy….Can’t have it both ways, Jean-Claude…

Leftback said...

Short EURUSD today, but I expect this trade will reverse again soon. The massed waves of DGDFers are simply too numerous at present.

Don't have much on in terms of risk, so not sweating the market action a great deal this week, will mainly be keeping an eye on the Treasury auctions.

Leftback said...

Travelling Wednesday so it is going to be light and tight this week. Mainly focused on not losing money!

Leftback said...

See you this afternoon and we will take a look at the 3y auction and talk about the overall picture in fixed income.

McFearless said...

saw a lot of claims reading posts yesterday that wave doesn't work in QE....well, Neely would likely disagree, as would I, of course.

in the heart of QE2 Neely's last rec I saw was to tell traders to go short Dec. Futures at last Friday's highs. That seems to be working out ok, he bought the august lows for the last larger gain and really has traded both sides of the market extremely well since August, stopped out a few times trying to short an expected wave 2, he lost maybe 3% maximum.

call me ahab said...

fwiw-

"Individual investors are wading back into the U.S. stock market. That ought to make ├╝ber-bulls think twice . . . The prior high in sentiment this year came in late spring, just as the market was headed for a bruising selloff. It may not be wise to fight the Fed, but it can be just as ill-advised to follow the crowd."- WSJ

mcHAPPY said...

@knows how to count

"I'll sell you my counts for 1/2 of a few bucks each month...

Here's a preview...

UP-DOWN-UP-UP-DOWN

I'll admit if I'm wrong but I'm not wrong very often. Besides, I'll admit to just about anything once I have your check in my pocket :)"

I'm assuming this is in jest - which is fine. However, when at the peak in April the guy is looking for a dramatic move down followed by a sharp move up and another move down - that is impressive especially when the lines is drawn to give you an indication of targets.

Next at the end of May when every other EW'er is calling for a dramatic down move but he had a line drawn with a shape that has essentially played out perfectly (only flaw is it has gone on longer than he anticipated) that is pretty damn impressive.

Down-up-down-up is a given but to know the ranges and approximate pattern is impressive especially considering the current trading environment.

mcHAPPY said...

Oh yes, and time as well. That is the classic flaw with EW as it gives no indication of how long things will take to play out.

karen said...

mrtopstep

An early breach of April high of 1216.75 failed to elect stops below - lite flow - could not run bigger stops = too short too early???

McFearless said...

McHappy,

best thing with NEO Wave was when Neely drew his "dotted box" in price and time for the intial move off the august lows, it literally hit as projected at pretty much exact time and price.
The time aspect he introduces to wave is crucial, as are some of his own developed rules, like the need for an extended leg within a 5 wave impulsive move.

McFearless said...

Karen,

does it have to do with stops or are traders simply doing the salivation routine on a POMO?

karen said...

Faber on gold..

http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2010/11/marc-faber-on-gold.html

karen said...

Ben, the $compq seem to indicate salivation on POMO, LOL..

AmenRa said...

DXY up yet the market is trying to fight that fact. EURJPY & AUDJPY getting taken to the woodshed. Oil, BKX, XLF are all down. Market is trying to stay afloat until POMO which should be the last one for the year. That's unless the Fed starts it back up immediately. Momo Monday lost its mojo

McFearless said...

aka: SOP

karen said...

Nixon, Sop it to me!?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

Put my sell stops on the big bet last night...

Life looks like it is going to work out all right.

Bruce

karen said...

I feel compelled to embrace the bullish argument:

http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-the-double-dip-is-dead-2010-11

Leftback said...

B in T

We are all relieved that you are not going (s)topless. FX still in charge of these marts, as MEH would say. LB is watching the European bond situation very closely. The usual sequence of events is:

1. Spreads widen. Mangler Merkel says, no bailouts. Euro rises.
2. Spreads widen further. ECB huddles, Euro falls. Risk off.
3. Spreads widen further. ECB announces can-kicking. Euro falls.
4. Spreads tighten. Risk on again. Sell bunds and USTs. Euro rises.

We are at 2) right now.

ben22 said...

Karen,

I weep for Joe W. Thanks for that though, really "powerful" analysis he's done there.

Leftback said...

US equity market can't really go far here b/c the energy and materials sector have pushed up so far and so fast and are vulnerable to a stronger dollar. So even though a few sectors might be stronger, the indices can't really push on very much here, until the dollar resumes falling.

wunsacon said...

LOL!???

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101108/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill_investigation

BP's/HAL's defense attorneys gotta love that. The dad who says his dead son told him he was worried about his life on the rig because of the way they were rushing drilling? Not so much.

karen said...

look at daily FXI candles. (and rsi at 14) for fun.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

By the way, Lefty, guess who joined facebook over the weekend....ok, time's up!


THE QUEEN! Now even we peasants can "poke" her......

Er,...

karen said...

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/08/canadian-mortgage-debt-tops-1-trillion-for-first-time

There is probably a saying, as the US goes, so goes Canada.

karen said...

yeah, go ahead and look at the $cdw today.. a sight for sore eyes but need to see follow-thru.

karen said...

Ben, I thot you would appreciate that. XX

ben22 said...

it made my day Karen. 8-)

ben22 said...

and if you wonder why, see my 8:25, yes, GN meant guys like Joe W.

karen said...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/euro-fxe-update-shows-weekly-confluence-level-to-watch/

ben22 said...

@AT,

if we remain in a terminal C wave assuming that wave 3 of C is topping or has topped, wave 1 is likely the extended wave and we expect a fifth wave failure, how do you go about targeting where the 5th wave would have a probable failure?

karen said...

Just re-read that Lindsey Lohan-CA comparison.. rolling my eyes.. Funny how I only read the parts I agreed with and skipped the parts I didn't : )

karen said...

http://dealbreaker.com/2010/11/citi-clients-not-as-understanding-as-firm-wouldve-thought-about-funds-that-lost-them-their-entire-investment-currently-being-investigated-by-the-sec/

karen said...

Here we go again!! My big fear:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/atm-cash-shortage-coming

mcHAPPY said...

Karen,

The saying in Canada regarding following the US:

The US gets a sniffle, Canada catches a cold.

Given the US is on life support, Canada should be D.O.A.

karen said...

Thanks, Happy.. LOL..

karen said...

want to be distracted for a minute?

Guillaume Nery, i can hardly watch it.. have to keep stop it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQITWbAaDx0

ben22 said...

I dont' think that article has much to do about cash shortage, over the summer banks were a lot more hardcore about asking why you wanted cash out, or requested 100's, not so much of late, it likely has a lot more to do with 3rd party ATM's and fees associated with banks using them than any current cash shortage.

karen said...

thanks, ben.. i'm sure you are right. anyway.. electronic cash and paper checks still work.. as do debit and credit cards : )

better for the government if paper dollars didn't exist at all, actually.

karen said...

$1400+ gold..

AmenRa said...

Gold sniffing at 1400. DXY still up. Something is very wrong in Europe.

AmenRa said...

Karen

When I was typing my earlier post the high was 1399.10.

karen said...

AR.. not just europe.. there is "global" talk of a return to the gold standard..

here is just one example of the many articles i've seen in the last week:

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=114456&sn=Detail&pid=110649

karen said...

kitco had it at 1400.10 when i posted! 1403 was the high. kitco down right now.

cv said...

I doubt any "talk" of a return to a gold standard would come to any fruition in any reasonable (tradeable) time frame...

Supposedly (supposedly), the US still has, by far, the largest gold hoarde... (Geraldo Rivera is at Fort Knox right now counting it)...

Anyway... My point is, that the US wouldn't want to pay off its debts in GOLD... That would be crazy...

It would rather string it along for as long as possible and pay with cheaper & cheaper dollars...

I believe the US would DEFAULT before it would give up any of its gold...

JMO

karen said...

Geraldo is counting it now; you are hilarious, CV : )

AmenRa said...

CV

Isn't that why we came off the gold standard in the first place? Other countries wanted to be repaid in gold but our gold levels were getting too low.

It wasn't that long ago when gold was the primary form of payment between countries.

AmenRa said...

What would happen if Fort Knox (or FRBNY) gold was found to be tungsten?

karen said...

there goes the dollar and crude (opposite direction)

cv said...

@Amen

But can't you see? That's the whole point...

- we either have the gold
- or we don't

If we HAVE it... (in greater abundance than others)... Then we wouldn't want a gold standard while we have a mountain of debt...

If we DON'T have it... We don't want anyone to find out...

Either way... No gold standard...

Or... Look at it this way... No gold standard until the last FOREIGN DEBT is expired... If the Fed, in the interim, keeps financing the federal deficits, they'll be the ones who are OWED (until foreign holders reach maturity)...

At that point... The standoff will be between the US Government and the Fed...

Fed says... GIVE ME YOUR GOLD... If not, it stops treasury purchases... Politicians can't spend, citizens get unruly...

That's the end game...

cv said...

I admit it's a pretty simplistic view...

But something along those lines...

But the US politicians are too stupid to figure out that they're borrowing money from that nice guy "Lenny the Loanshark" here...

cv said...

See... Everyone runs around right now and says...

"Ha Ha Ha... Look at our military!... All we'd need is a stroke of a pen by the President to wipe out all the debts owed to other countries...

They'd be right... Who would want to go to war with us?

But in the end... If it's the Fed that's owed all that money... What are you going to do? Nuke the Fed?

Sure - that would be fun, but the government would be shooting itself in the foot because it would have no mechanism to sustain our bloated economy...

- pensions
- entitlements
- programs
- military

The whole charade...

People wouldn't understand that... They've NEVER understood the concept of "living by your means"...

cv said...

Gibbs threatens to pull Obama from India talks after press dispute

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20101108/pl_yblog_upshot/gibbs-threatens-to-pull-obama-after-press-dispute

That's it Gibbs - Show 'em who's REALLY in charge!

What a maroon!

karen said...

TBT regaining its earlier sell-off. JNK still weakish..

Leftback said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/opinion/07kristof.html?src=me&ref=general

Inequality must be really glaring for the fat, self-satisfied, complacent organ of American intelligentsia to have noticed (NY Times).

Leftback said...

Gibbs is an absolute a**hole, following in a long tradition of WH press secretary a**holes.

ben22 said...

I would welcome gold being used again but I don't think we'll simply return to a gold standard, not sure that's the model moving forward.

interesting all the discussion on it right now from a socionomics perspective.

last, i called the wizard over the weekend and told him

don't fight the gold, been around a lot longer than the Fed.

Leftback said...

Let's all buy a shedload of 3y Ts at 54 bps...

No? Yeah, I thought not. Get ready for a weak one, gang.

karen said...

uup at low of day now.

Leftback said...

There is going to be a clavadista to end all clavadistas for the bugs before long...

Just sayin'...

Leftback said...

My EUR short has a very tight stop on it. Let's see how this auction goes. A spike in yields on a poor auction would be USD positive.

Leftback said...

Hi, Karen... <3

ben22 said...

I gotta just say I'm so in love with the count Neely put out today because it's going to absolutely burn the maximum number of participants.

You guys think i was bad with bobby P....you are all going to tell me to get lost as my love affair with the Neely man blossoms.

Leftback said...

BTC was reasonable, but the yield was 4bps outside at 0.58%.

Total Amount $32.0 B
Coupon Rate 0.500%
Bid/Cover 3.26
Yield Awarded 0.575%

Andy T said...

@Ben. In terminal patterns or any "first wave" extension setups:

If the Wave-3 is "big" compared to Wave-1, ie 61.8% or 78.6%, then the Wave-5 will be "small" relative to the Wave-3. i.e 38.% of Wave -3.

And vice-versa. If wave-3 is 38.2% or 50% of Wave 1, then the wave-5 should be 61.8-78.6% of Wave-3.

Andy T said...

Can't believe that some counters are adopting that big "impulse" model off the lows. It's almost like they're avoiding the count I presented here because it would bee too similar to Neely's count....the count that's been correct for awhile now.

Funny stuff, that.

Leftback said...

EURUSD bounced off a fib at 1.3899.
Those FX traders are big fibbers.

karen said...

Andy.. thanks for those gold charts, posted above, by the way..

Leftback said...

Sideways week. Congestion City.

karen said...

Fed’s Bullard: Buzz Off
By Jamie Coleman || November 8, 2010 at 18:12 GMT

Fed asset buying effects around the world no different than others monetary easing
Can’t have others around the world calling the shots on the Fed’s mandate
No Bernake put, just ordinary policy stabilization
Bigger businesses in St. Louis district are expanding abroad rather than the US. This is a concern
Regulatory uncertainty halting buiness investment; must get details out quickly
Monetary policy can’t solve all economy’s problems
Fed must be flexible to adjust QE on both sides
Bullard has become a thought-leader on the Fed and one worth paying attention to…Bullard flipped from moderately hawkish to quite dovish in recent months, helping usher in the introduction of QE2.

ben22 said...

Andy,

great, thanks very much. GN's count is now nearly identical to yours, in fact I've not yet reviewed your most recent charts, they might be the same now.

I read some people at Dan's yesterday stating EWI is now claiming bull market calling the move off march impulsive, so you are aware, nothing could be further from the truth and they've gone through all the reasons they'd never label it as such, I suppose those stating this missed the giant Primary Wave 2 circle label still on their charts, or the fact that it's labeled this way on the front page summary, lol.

regarding the count though, totally agree, there is no objective way to count it like that from last year's lows

no extended wave
no significant retracement of wave 2 in time or price
no alteration between 2 and 4
the third wave is an absolute disaster, certainly does not appear impulsive
the volume, breadth and sentiment characteristics completely deny labeling it an impulsive structure as well

and there's more....but we could put that argument to rest fairly easy.

there are two very distinct groups that are getting bigger in the community, P3 up and P3 down, and both camps appear completely wrong.

karen said...

Oil May Hit $90/Bbl, But Gains Risk Creating Bubble - Analysts
1:13 PM ET 11/8/10 | Dow Jones
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Oil bulls' imaginations were stoked last week after the Saudi oil minister announced the country's comfort zone for crude-oil prices increased from $70-$80 per barrel to $70-$90 per barrel, setting a new psychological target for the market. But market fundamentals don't support a $90-a-barrel price tag, oil analysts told Dow Jones Newswires.

"A $90/bbl price tag for oil is not justifiable. Oil is trading higher on QE2, but as has been seen today, as soon as the dollar bounces, oil stalls," said VTB Capital's vice president of commodities research, Andrey Kryuchenkov.

Last week oil futures soared on a weak dollar in the wake of the Fed's announcement of further quantitative easing. Front-month December Nymex light, sweet crude hit a 25-month high of $87.49 a barrel in Asian trading Monday, within striking distance of the $90/Bbl level. Since then, however, prices have fallen as the return of concerns over European sovereign debt issues forced oil prices to retreat along with the euro.

Leftback said...

Primary dealers ate 51% of that sh*t sandwich today, folks. They may have to crash equities a bit to get their money out of these 3y Ts.

karen said...

ben.. or any of you wavers.. have you tried putting wave counts on FXE or FXA.. or the $cdw? I think Andy once said he didn't like trading currencies because he thot they were a crap shoot : )

Well, that's what has been running this show, imo..

karen said...

gagging on every news item.. this is my last! Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. defended Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s decision to pump money into the U.S. economy after officials in Germany, China and Brazil criticized the plan.

The move will spur gross domestic product growth and reduce the risk of deflation, Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. Because the Fed’s target for overnight loans between banks is near zero, the central bank is doing “the next best thing,” according to Goldman, one of the 18 primary dealers that are authorized to trade directly with the central bank.

“The widespread hostility to the Fed’s actions is misplaced,” Hatzius wrote. “Downside risks to the economic outlook have declined significantly. U.S. inflation is unlikely to become a problem for years.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8Ox2FfXjppw

ben22 said...

Karen,

no, not on those particular ETF's, I've primarily done work on DX in the currency space, it's the only one I've ever traded. I saw some interesting wave relationships in Yen but I'm not sure I'm prepared to trade Yen at this time.

ben22 said...

I can't work up the energy to respond to those remarks from GS, hilarious.

karen said...

FXE holding its 20 day ema.. FXA holding its 5.. the dollar is still trash.

karen said...

sorry, one more : )

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. is running out of time to fulfill a promise to raise more capital by year-end and may be forced to make up the shortfall by paying some bonuses in stock rather than cash.

The gap of about $1.1 billion at Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender by assets, stems from its accord last December to repay $45 billion of federal bailout funds and escape the Troubled Asset Relief Program. As part of the deal, the bank agreed to sign contracts by June 30 for asset sales that would raise capital. The sum, originally $4 billion, was later reset at $3 billion and the deadline extended to Dec. 31.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAf_madOIopY

karen said...

bac black candle simply cannot regain 50 ema!!!

i know, i know.. i better curb my enthusiasm..

ben22 said...

there was one interesting comment from DR today I'd like to throw out for discussion here:

"there is this belief that the steepening of the Treasury yield curve is good for the banks; however, the question is, which part of the curve is relevant for financials? It is likely more the overnight to 2-year notes or 5-year notes than the 10-year notes or bonds. As a result, it can be argued that the curve has actually flattened in the past week, not steepened."

karen said...

Mary Schapiro out assuring everyone of SEC's continued fine-tuning of flash crash circuit breakers via dow jones..

karen said...

Ben, that is interesting but over my head to conjecture.. it fits with my 'beware unintended consequences' theme, however.

karen said...

this is what i want to know:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/whos-buying-all-these-cars/

karen said...

you will DIE laughing if you watcht the above video..

karen said...

it is SURREAL !!! I still have it playing..

ben22 said...

lets wait for leftback to respond on the bonds karen.

as for cars, anecdotally I can tell you that I've probably had 3 dozen or more clients buy one or more cars this year, and no, none of them bought one because they thought the economy was getting better.

karen said...

Fischer is talking now!

Fed's Fisher calls on Congress 'to move quickly'
1:49 PM ET | Marketwatch
-- Fisher worried about falling dollar, protectionism
1:49 PM ET | Marketwatch
-- Fed's Fisher urges tax, regulatory overhauls
1:49 PM ET | Marketwatch
-- Fisher says 'financial speculation' is increasing
1:49 PM ET | Marketwatch
-- Fisher: too few businesses want to invest in U.S.
1:49 PM ET | Marketwatch
-- Fisher: deflation risk too low to justify strategy

karen said...

optionmonster $VIX Report for Nov 8

http://ping.fm/DYaMc

ben22 said...

Barry has a video up with Fleck and Barton Biggs, might interest a few people, I don't agree with a lot of what fleck says but I like to hear his ideas at all times.

Leftback said...

Treasuries = POMO arbitrage.

Find some HY and sit in it. This fixed income market is going nowhere fast, although Ts may back up in yield from now until late Spring.

karen said...

XLF and quote stuffing:

http://www.optionmonster.com/drj_blog/article.jsp?page=drj_blog/rmbrenna_black_box_quote_stuffing_in_xlf_50761.html

karen said...

optionmonster

rt @optstrategist $VXX 1-for-4 reverse split tomorrow http://bit.ly/8ZuQgw

mcHAPPY said...

@Andy

Do you have any VERY ROUGH estimates of where (C) might end IFwe are approaching the end of (B) given (A) was 1220-1010?

I'm not sure if anything above would make sense given I'm not too sure how NeoWave rules work. I know in Orthodox EW we would be looking for 1.618 or 2.618 the length of (A) so we'd be around 900 for 1.618 and 700 for 2.618.

karen said...

sweet! NYTimesDealBook

Lehman Lawyers Seek a Fresh $90 Million for Legal Fees http://bit.ly/aV7UQX

mcHAPPY said...

Or if A=C then around 1020.

karen said...

zerohedge

California Borrows $40 Million Per Day To Pay For Unemployment Insurance http://bit.ly/bWPMJo

ben22 said...

McHappy,
I can tell you this (or Andy can correct it), in terms of time (a+b)/2 for C wave.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I thought C wave had to equal a and b in terms of time.

LOL - like I said I can't wait for his book.

ben22 said...

no doubt man, dont' get me wrong, I still love the EWP book, it's been a huge money maker for me, but Neely puts the time aspect just as important as form and price, which is so huge, I don't even know what else to say about it other than I'm upset I waited so long to get the book. fortunately I'm not 70 years old and just finding it.

karen said...

I just got an email offer from Tulving.com:


7.9% Fixed Rate for 360 Days
on Your Tulving Company Bullion Purchase

Leftback said...

Karen

Those ankles are extremely stylish...
...and sexy. There, I've said it. Lost my composure.

Leftback said...

7.9% Fixed Rate for 360 Days

TOP !!!

cv said...

@ben

I put that video of Fleck & BB up last week...

Good to see Ritzy is on top of things again... He must have been, ahem... traveling...

ben22 said...

C,

hmmm, I didnt' remember seeing that here. sorry. BR....funny guy.

cv said...

@karen

This...

"Oil bulls' imaginations were stoked last week after the Saudi oil minister announced the country's comfort zone for crude-oil prices increased from $70-$80 per barrel to $70-$90 per barrel"...

---

I'm sure the Saudi's "comfort zone" will change as quickly as the fortunes of the dollar do...

If and when the dollar loses another 20% (and oil is up over $100 a barrel)... and grandma is eating catfood...

I'd suggest taking out a full page ad in the New York Times THANKING the Saudi's for their "comfort zone"...

Then sens a copy to your local congressional representative...

That ought to be fun...

cv said...

@ben

we were joking about it last week...

Oh yeah, I think it was Friday (while you were out all day)...

ben22 said...

must have been Friday, or I've lost my mind, both are about equal probability.

Leftback said...

This week seems like it will be a massive snoozefest.
But let's keep half an eye on Ireland and Portugal.

cv said...

Let's do a 3:00PM wrap up...

OK... SPX DOWN .03%

GOLD... UP .09%
SILVER... UP 3%

People - you're DOWN over 1% in Gold today, and down more than 3% in silver...

Enjoy your playstations, flat panel TVs, iPhones...

... and catfood!

karen said...

http://247wallst.com/2010/11/08/feds-fisher-attacks-central-bank-policy-qe2-a-waste-of-money/

ben22 said...

I just liked the video mainly for what it revealed, a pretty face and no brain for 99.9% of these hosts.

you see the new argument developing steam "the fed had no choice"

god help us all

cv said...

@ben

Jesse Ventura is going to kicks GS's ass!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wRfuAUubT0&feature=player_embedded

"How much freakin' money does it take?"

karen said...

finally, a bloomberg article on Schapiro's guarantees, so to speak.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPnR9vZuEdNU

AmenRa said...

Here comes the squeeze...

MUST...CLOSE...UP...ON...POMO...DAYS...

cv said...

Hey karen...

Was approval of this on your ballot initiative last week? - ror

California Borrows $40 Million Per Day To Pay For Unemployment Insurance

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/california-borrows-40-million-day-pay-unemployment-insurance

Jennifer said...

Interesting stuff re: silver -- Gary Savage was pointing out this morning that SLW was 69% above its 200 DMA this morning. SOH just had a post that SLV has a big fib coming at 28.33. They're talking about putting your dollars in a mattress versus burning them right now on CNBC.

karen said...

CV, I posted that ZH piece earlier : P

cv said...

@Amen (3:22)

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es_793.html

karen said...

my little miner is one of CV's precious nickels away from going green.. ufb.. it used to be up a whole dollar bill when gold was half the price.

karen said...

interesting from Nouriel

Deflationary bias of fixed rate regime: slow growing country gotta raise rates to prevent depreciation, thus feeding recession/deflation

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/08/guest-contribution-what-do-bond-markets-expect-on-inflation/

cv said...

nickels bitchez!

ben22 said...

hey all, wonder what finreg is like for the retail advisor, peep this, my comments in ():

Hi All,

We continue to receive communications from CSU that the advisors/staff emails are not within policy. Please review the following and update your footer as requested by your RP.

Some examples of violations are:

> > > > > > > > are missing from their footer. (guys, if I sent an e-mail and these aren't just above my name on the footer, it's in violation)
The font has been changed. (yes, you are reading this correct, if the font size is not 9pt Arial, I'm in violation, so now you know the magic font)
Size of the font has been changed. (see above)
Color of font has been changed. (I usually do a nice pink e-mail, not anymore! j/k...btw)
Unapproved taglines are added. (best money manager ever has been removed from my footer now)

crucial stuff folks, and there are people making good money monitoring stuff like this.

cv said...

@ben22

Those were some of the 3-4 million jobs that were saved or created...

karen said...

zerohedge

Ambac to file bankruptcy

Andy T said...

"there are two very distinct groups that are getting bigger in the community, P3 up and P3 down, and both camps appear completely wrong. "

That's what's making me feel really good about my wave count. We'll see.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
@Karen.

Currencies count out quite well. ETFs don't or 2X or 3X currency ETFs definitely don't count at all.

Andy T said...

Wade Phillips...

Finally put out of his misery.

That team looks like real shit.

cv said...

Rumors that Jerry Jones has fired Wade Phillips...

ben22 said...

oh, ambac! lol. I wish this was as funny for others as it is for me, the blago look-a-like at Eaton Vance said one of the best lines once to us:

If munis go bust Ambac will cover them all.

ROR!

(CV, are caps ok on your blog? how about my font?)

ben22 said...

AT,

I think it's just our nature to want a P3 up or down count, the idea that one could forecast and be positioned correctly for either outcome as it would mean a fortune is appealing to our subjective ways. Nobody emotionally wants to go with your count, because it means one bitch of a market to trade for many more years.....not months.

Leftback said...

AMBAC, Bitchez !!!

Leftback said...

Wait !! Without Ambac, what happens to Lehman Brothers?

Oh......

Andy T said...

Mandy Drury looking nice today....

Though, Ms. Manners might have had something to say about the blaring white outfit after Labor Day. Ha.

Jennifer said...

Priceline up more than $20 AH. Karen -- does that make it the new coinstar?

Leftback said...

Someone suggested today that QE3 will monetize busted munis. LB thinks that may be about right. Many states and cities on the brink, that will be the story of 2011.

ben22 said...

did you all see the survey of the primary dealers late last week, I caught it on the news maybe Saturday, I think it said 9 of them believe that QE2 will extend beyond the figures stated thus far.

I read the statement the same way.

you might have already discussed this so just ignore if so

cv said...

Gotta go peeps...

I'll be back later for Monday Night Football & C'MON MAN!...

Steelers at Bengals tonight... (Semi-interesting for CV because both are in Baltimore's division)... CV is a Steeler hater...

Steelers are giving 6 points (on the road)... That's a HEFTY amount of points for a divisional matchup... It's essentially saying that it's a 9 point spread on a neutral field (and a 12 point spread if they were playing in Steeltown)...

The line was moved from 3 1/2 to 6... And still, 64% of the $$ is on the Steelers...

That means only one thing... VEGAS is being forced to chase this line... IT's their fault... They got greedy with yesterdays Colts/Eagles line and tried to soak the public betting the Colts... Colts came in with a back-door cover and Vegas took a bath...

Even though the Bengals suck... You probably have to hold your nose and take the points...

I guess I'll go (1 unit) on the Bengals...

I had a good day in NFL yesterday... Horrible Saturday...

All my FF teams lost for me...

POMO weekend in sports wagering city!

ben22 said...

ahab,

hey, just wanted to say your welcome for not starting Williams or Stevie "best WR in the NFL" Johnson this week.

just trying to help a guy out while he's down.


how bout dem Raiders!!!!!!

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 11.8.10

A bit of risk-off today, not a very interesting day in all honesty. We will pass on the usual witticisms and analytical gems and just say, what a snoozer. The 3y auction was luke-warm.

Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG -0.05%; JNK -0.51%; HYG -0.29%;
Govies: TLT 0.45%; IEI -0.05%; TIP 0.14%
Hedgies: TBT -0.81%

We are watching the 10y and 30y auctions with interest. There may be a buying opportunity ahead in long bonds on weakness. TLT chart shows a possible trading range between 98 and 102, and we bounced off that support today.

karen said...

i think i will lose my mind now.. and my shirt : )

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/08/commercial-mortgage-securities-stand-to-benefit-most-from-qe2

72bat said...

k -

do NOT inflame lb's imagination at this late hour, PUH-leez!

Leftback said...

"i think i will lose my mind now.. and my shirt : )"

LB is waiting with bated breath for K to disrobe...

AmenRa said...

Late corner today.

AmenRa said...

Up now.

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