AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Somehow they found a way to redirect me back out to sea…for now.



SPX
Hanging man day (no more calls from the governor at the last second). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and held 1194.18 (the .021 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1185.62). The monthly 3LB reversal has been placed on IR. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 85.4% retrace at 76.29. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 78.18).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) but no test of SMA(55). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.93). Daily 3LB now trending up. Broke back in to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish short day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1322.60).



EURUSD
Bullish long day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back above SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.3732).



JNK
Bullish long day (closed the gap). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is still between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Recaptured the 14.6% retrace at 26.00. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4734.18).




CRB
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 301.29).




XLF
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) and sniffed at SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.89). Resolved triangle/wedge higher. Sugarhoneyicetea.



TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below SMA(144). Below its 38.2% retrace and all trend lines. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 100.27). Falling/declining wedge has broken to the downside.


LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The QE2 Bond Report 11.3.10

LB will not pretend to explain everything that happened today in Bond Land, but the gist of it is this. A rumour was floated this morning, by the LIES MAN himself on CNBC, that QE2 might be only $300B. This reduced inflation expectations and triggered buying of 10s b/c 10s30s is a measure of inflation expectations and it is at record wides. When the FOMC statement came along with $600B these trades had to be reversed, and the long end was sold and IG corporates went with it. Meanwhile, the general risk-on trade was reflected in HY being bid.

Corpies: LQD -0.33%; AGG -0.02%; JNK 0.47%; HYG 0.33%;
Govies: TLT -2.04%; IEI 0.28%; TIP -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 3.93%

LB is glad he didn't trade this. From here we would be happy to fade rallies in TLT, and we expect the primary drivers of the US bond market to be POMOs and auctions. Study up, kids, and you too can pick up a few pennies ahead of oncoming steamrollers. Be aware that problems in Europe can flare up at any time and would lead to demand for Bunds and USTs, in a "flight to quantity".


IT CAN NEVER DIE. THERE ARE NO KNOWN WAYS TO DESTROY IT. IT FEEDS OFF THE BLOOD OF FIAT CURRENCIES.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

"DL said...

At least there will be no more bailouts for California.

November 3, 2010 3:49 PM "
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Indeed.

There will be no bailouts for the "Golden State." They needed to get the D.C. bucks (our dollars) last year when they still could.

There won't be a lifeline for the next few years. Let's hope they don't need one.

Colin said...

You know your govt is overstepping its necessary duty when:

"Canada's government has rejected BHP Billiton's bid for Potash Corp. Canada said that BHP has 30 days to convince the government to change its position."

(POT down 5% AH)

Andy T said...

@Colin.

I can't make fun of Canadians too much for that stance--the USG has put the kibosh on a few international takeovers as well. We normally do it in the name of "national security."

McFearless said...

this was sent to me by three people today:



H R. 4646
I have gone into THOMAS (Library of Congress) and printed out and read all 15 pages of this bill which has been given the "Short Title" of "Debt Free America Act." It is the most socialistic thing I have ever read. Just think, if you deposit $5,000.00 into your checking account or savings account the bank has to take out 1% or $50.00 of that money and send it to Washington. Then, any checks or cash you take out of your bank they will deduct 1% from what is still in the bank and send it to Washington. Total put in the Bank $5,000.00. $100.00 of that you give to Washington.
This bill, spells it out that everyone will pay the Government 1% of their gross income.
Page 9 states the House and Senate shall convene not later than November 23, 2010 and Page 11 states the vote on passage shall occur not later than December 23, 2010.

I don't know if it's true or not, anyone have any insight?

Anonymous said...

Anecdotes from my world: Chemical margins for 2011 are pricing in record margins/demand. There's been good "demand" from somewhere....

Heard it before said...

Ben (7:29) - I heard something very similar to that a couple months ago, I belief Mark Hoffer has posted something about it.

I do not know if it is true or a hoax, but if I come across any links to more info on it I will pass it along to you.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

I can't deal with my own life, let alone the market : )

karen said...

I meant the reverse of that! LOL

CV said...

I'm back... Did I miss anything?... Did anything miss me?

At least I have some cool tunes in mind for tomorrow...

karen said...

you missed me getting wine soaked.

CV said...

Silver bitchez...

"Due to the fact that silver’s industrial applications result in destroying the stuff, there is currently a total of only 1,234,590,000 “investable” ounces of silver in aboveground supplies.

At $21 per ounce, the total value of above ground silver comes to only about $26 billion. By contrast, because pretty much every ounce of gold ever mined still exists, there are a total of 4,585,620,000 “investable” ounces of gold in aboveground stocks. At $1,330 per ounce, that comes to $6 trillion worth.

Thus, the silver/gold ratio is currently about 63:1, yet the total value of all the investable gold on the planet is about 235 times that of silver.

For the record, the ratio of silver to gold in the earth’s crust is 17:1. That’s in the ballpark of the 15:1 average silver/gold price ratio that has held sway over the centuries.

Kicking off his presentation at our recent Gold & Resource Summit, Bob Quartermain, the powerhouse behind Silver Standard (SSO), stated that if the audience took nothing else away from his talk, it should be that the demand for silver well exceeds new mine supply, and has for some time."

wunsacon said...

SIVR = physical ... well, I think so.

wunsacon said...

Would've been cheaper to give Cali free pot than bailouts.

CV said...

I'm trying to calculate the dollars demise...

Let's see... (in UUP terms)... it was tipping near 26 in June... 5 months later, it's at 22...

So... 4 handles in 5 months... 22/4= 5.5 increments of "time" (times 5 months per increment)...

That's 27.5 months from now that the dollar will be ABSOLUTELY WORTHLESS (and therefore - so will EVERYTHING THAT YOU OWN ON PAPER)...

Doesn't that pretty much line up with the Mayan Calendar END DATE of 2012?

How did the Mayans KNOW that Bernanke & Obama would be around in this precise moment in time?

CV said...

@wunsa

I offered to sell West Hollywood to the arabs but nobody has taken me up on it yet...

mcHAPPY said...

@Colin

I'm not debating whether it is right or wrong, but the thinking of Canadian government is to not give foreign control over Canadian natural resources. I think they are attempting to prevent another Vale incident where the Brazilian company purchased Inco.

wunsacon said...

CV,

>> "Not Bush" was mistaken as some kind of mandate...

IMHO, there *was* a "mandate". But, it was a mandate to clean up Wall Street, prosecute fraud, and improve government transparency.

Obama did none of those! And then he focused the nation's attention for a year on health care!

Like, hello?? Regardless of how he *imagined* back in 2007 how he'd spend the first years of his presidency, when circumstances change (i.e., financial panic), then it's time to change your game plan!

What happened when the BP oil spill went down? He was slow to respond and gave an anemic speech. How did Fraudclosure creep up on him? Did it not occur to him that when you find crooks/incompetence in one business unit that they might be found in other business units?

And the "HCR" didn't even offer a "USPS" alternative to "Fedex" and "RPS". Grayson's idea was: let people of all ages buy into Medicare, if they want. No (Romney-inspired?) government mandate to push individuals into the arms of corporate HMO's (unless they want to).

How about transparency at the Fed? In the BLS?

Who would vote to re-elect him or most of the people from his party??

wunsacon said...

>> I offered to sell West Hollywood to the arabs but nobody has taken me up on it yet...

Heh heh... After they buy up enough farmland to ensure food security for their people (if they care), they might as well buy it! What else would you buy with your petro dullarz??

wunsacon said...

I, too, suspect silver will rise more than gold.

...

Anyone have any thoughts on agricultural commodities? I'd like to buy into a pullback. But, I worry this stuff will keep moving away from me.

wunsacon said...

Gee, I sure know how to kill a party... ;-)

Okay, off to an early night's sleep.

AmenRa said...

wunsacon

We're around. Everyone is probably figuring out their next step post QE2.

CV said...

@wunsa

You did my job better than I could have done (by saying)...

---

Regardless of how he *imagined* back in 2007 how he'd spend the first years of his presidency, when circumstances change (i.e., financial panic), then it's time to change your game plan!

---

I happen to term "not qualified" as a person who lacks adaptive skills... This is ESPECIALLY true when YOUR JOB is in the realm of public servitude...

What FURTHER made me laugh yesterday was towards the end of the election coverage broadcast I was watching (msnbc - with the Olberman - Maddow - Matthews crew all sitting at the same desk)...

In sifting thru the wreckage (which they were doing their best to spin POSITIVE for their distraught viewerships)... They collectively seized upon the idea of how this would affect the 2012 OBAMA RE-ELECTION campaing...

Immediately came a chorus of denials and "no ways"... They were quick to draw comparisons to the Bob Doles & Mike Dukakis types of the world in an effort to establish the ground that there were no CREDIBLE candidates to oppose Obama (as IF he's actually established any CREDIBILITY for himself - but I'll let that one go for now)...

Anyway... While I couldn't necessarily disagree with them IN THE MOMENT... My mind immediately wandered to the fact that perhaps the "challenger" would come from within the Democratic ranks itself... How is it that Hillary (who has been very low profile as of late) couldn't be the one to come back and reclaim what she STILL probably feels was left of the sacrificial altar...

The botton line is... It was ironic that I (who have no dog in this fight) immediately could think of variables that these people who earn their living by doing this 24/7 couldn't even remotely conjure in the heat of battle...

Talk about reading from the teleprompter...

It continues to amaze me how self proclaimed LIBERALS seem to constantly be harnessed by INFLEXIBILITY...

CV said...

@wunsa (10:01)

Just buy the damn food...

CV said...

@Amen

"Everyone is probably figuring out their next step post QE2..."

---

Yeah... It goes along the lines of "pricing in" QE3...

CV said...

I already established... ABOVE... that the dollar will reach ZERO sometime between Inauguration Day 2013 & Valentines Day 2013...

That's assuming 2012 doesn't do us in first...

In which case... UNDERGROUND ALGOS located at the fortified Cheyenne Mountain NORAD complex will TRADE the dollar to zero in our stead...

Anonymous said...

wunsacon--

It's ok man. You can kill a party if you want to here... it's still a "free" country.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I can tell you that, amongst the "centrist" 'burb friends I have...the ones who make A LOT of money...AND voted for Obama....We were all unanimously disappointed that he went after Health Care in the middle of what we were facing. It wasn't so much that we were "pissed" off with him on that issue...it was more just pure "befuddlement."

The consensus opinion among the independents/centrists I know was: "What the fuck? Why are you tackling this deal (Health Care)? Why aren't you trying to solve some of what ails the Economy? Forcing this issue down the throats of individuals and businesses right now is NOT appropriate."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Did he ever offer a rebuke of the Federal Reserve and the way they've conducted their business/bailouts? NO.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Did he do anything to repudiate the debt structure/Ponzi scheme that is the US? No.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Did he shut down Gitmo? No.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Did he get us out of Afghanistan and Iraq? No
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Basically, the "O" was the same as the "W" except he rammed a hugely unpopular Health Care bill down the face of the Economy...

Thus, he got a Big ol' FAIL in the first two years.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Everyone would be well-served by listening to the Rand Paul acceptance speech....

Government doesn't create jobs or prosperity. The private citizens/businesses do.

Everyone works for someone "rich" or sells services/goods to someone "rich."

Has anyone every gone to work for someone with LESS money than themselves? Unless you're doing charity work, the answer is probably "NO."

So, let's dispense with the bullshit and class-warfare nonsense....yeah, rich people do SUCK...they have more than the rest of us; but, the fact is that I work for a rich person and he's OK in my book--his check clears every month and he pays my bills. Also, someday, I would like to be as "rich" as him....

That's OK, right?

McFearless said...

thats ok by me

AmenRa said...

Dollar already below its earlier 2010 lows. Is this the reversal area or will it test 2009 lows first?

DL said...

Bernanke himself wrote an op-ed piece in today's Washington Post, defending his actions with respect to QE


http://wapo.st/cnFIGO

McFearless said...

"This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."

L.M.F.A.O.

McFearless said...

11/6 and 11/7 appear to be this year's first black friday at WMT.

AmenRa said...

2yr 0.3197% or new low. Thanks BB.

McFearless said...

isnt this nice

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-federal-reserve-is-holding-a-conference-on-jekyll-island-to-celebrate-100-years-of-dominating-america-a-return-to-jekyll-island-the-origins-history-and-future-of-the-federal-reserve

CV said...

new thread

call me ahab said...

all hail the Fed- price manipulator and protector of asset values-

something just doesn't seem right about this- treasuries sold to the Fed which creates money to hand to the banks-

who then invest in stocks-

what am I missing?

call me ahab said...

. . .and devaluation of the dollar-

I am sure the ROW appreciates that-

didn't BB say in congressional testimony that the Fed would not monetize the debt?

I guess that was fib

McFearless said...

"who then invest in stocks"

Talk to Chuck. John E. is buying again, it's a total conviction environment.

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