AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Market tried and failed again. Why oh why must they continue to test my resolve?



SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and held 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1178.10). Failed to take out monthly 3LB reversal again. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) & tested SMA(55). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.93). Daily 3LB now trending up. The "no fear" zone is in the rear view mirror.



GOLD
Bearish thrusting day. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1322.60).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4049).



JNK
Bearish long day (on a gap down also). Above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Trading range is still between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 14.6% retrace at 26.00. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).



DJ TRANS AVG
Doji day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4779.72).




CRB
Shooting star day (prefer previous day to be a long day). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 296.06).



XLF
Spinning top day (with long tails). Midpoint at EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.89). Something is coming to an apex. Decision, decisions.



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The QE2 Bond Report 11.1.10

An odd day in fixed income. We began with personal income/spending numbers that were weak, so whoop whoop, $4T QE coming, Ts were bid. Then at 10am we had the manufacturing numbers, hot diggity, cancel the QE, NO QE AT ALL, I TELL YOU, and long Ts were sold again, then finally we had a bit of a sell-off in equities and HY got kind of weak as well. Much ado about nothing.... we will get $600B of QE.

Corpies: LQD -0.03%; AGG -0.04%; JNK -0.42%; HYG -0.19%;
Govies: TLT -0.43%; IEI 0.05%; TIP 0.16%
Hedgies: TBT 0.68%

Happy not to be involved here other than long HY and looking for a big dip to buy. Lots more silly volatility ahead this week.



26 comments:

prosciutto gristle said...

Ben is right, the special effects in Clash of the Titans were sorta cool. But that's the sad thing about CGI: It isn't sufficient to make any movie great, but it is sufficient to prevent some movies from being the Camp that they really want to be.

Jennifer said...

I find the sudden resurgence of Starship Troopers on every channel at night, and their constant references to the "Federation" (along with creepy flag) to be eerily reminiscent of "homeland." Love the bugs, never read the book though -- missed it during my brief teenage Heinlein phase.

McFearless said...

wow, was in the car a lot last few hours so I listened to radio, lots of buzz about WL, like this:

1. Many cries of "the asset business at WL is fine but the loan business is really bad, otherwise the business is good".....lol, really? guess they still haven't figured out what's going on here, I guess 2007-2009 never really happened in Delaware either, at least not according to these people.

2. CEO Foley, (who's brother was a big time motivational speaker, btw, see here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcR7hr4LLQg) made the claim that "we just didn't see the risk when we were underwriting these loans"

um, excuse me, is this the 2010 version of "nobody saw it coming"....

sorry, as if the market didn't already call bs on this dude, but it's real simple like, they said forget it to the core business because they just HAD TO be a part of the greatest real estate bubble of all time, in the process they blew up the company by making bad loans and taking insane leverage.....c'mon man, we've been through this a few trillion times now right?


3. Local RBC "analyst" is claiming that it was a "bad deal for shareholders"

um....let me stop laughing to compose myself, no again, assholio, shareholders are lucky to get anything at all, the bank is insolvent!

but the best thing, the BEST thing, was driving by one of the branches on rt 202 on the way to my mtg where they have a huge banner outside claiming they are #1 in customer satisfaction in Delaware. I'll get a picture of this before the week is over, and a new avatar is born.

cv said...

C'MON MAN... in 10 minutes...

Andy T said...

I like what BR is doing now--he lets the Invictus character post the politically inflammatory stuff. I guess that's cool--he can assert he isn't "partisan" really..that it was the other guy who posted the political things....

Noted this interesting comment:

"Thor Says:
November 1st, 2010 at 5:23 pm
.....I just personally think the Tea Party movement is not at all representative of the nation, they’re loud, and their “principles” sound like something most of us could get behind. Peal away the window dressing though, and I think what you have left is a bunch of angry white people pining for the 50′s."

It's a very interesting comment.

I suppose there were some folks in England in the 1700's who may have been caught saying similar things: "You know those 'revoltists' in the Colonies have a few valid points, but when you peel it all away, they're just a bunch of crazy zealots and backwoodsman pining for some kind 'utopia' that just can't exist. God save the King."

Or, in the 1960's, there may have been some "southern folk" who may have uttered: "You know those civil rights activists are making some decent arguments, but when you peel it all the way, they're just a bunch of angry black people."

What does it matter 'who' is making the argument, if the points being argued are valid and sensible? Typically the folks who are "protesting" something are not happy campy people--they're usually pissed and angry about something. Otherwise, they wouldn't be protesting in the first place.

That whole post/thread from Invictus was a bit "elitist" IMO and was meant to be an inflammatory/comment-baiting post. Mission Accomplished.

Can't wait for the political season to be done...lots of "tension" out there.

Andy T said...

cv. Agreed. "C'mon Man."

I need Andre Johnson to not "go off" tonight. You know..I could handle 100-150 yards and a TD...just can't handle much more than that.

I hope your right about the Texans covering. I wouldn't make that bet, though.

prosciutto said...

Here's an insightful letter from today's Palo Alto newspaper (which does not publish online). These people clearly live on a different planet:

Bloomberg News says "economic reality doesn't reflect popular opinion." The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans, made a profit on rescuing banks, most loans have been repaid to the treasury, and we have had five quarters of economic growth.

Yet most voters and pundits don't acknowledge it. The public believes the opposite and blames the Democrats.

Where was the tax break for middle-class families under $150,000 a year? It was in the stimulus package. Ninety-five percent of working Americans got tax breaks--$400 for individuals and $800 for families.

Now, the richest Republicans are trying to strong-arm the Democrats and President Obama to give in to tax cuts for the richest 2% of Americans who do not need the money.

If you are a working person you should not vote Republican for this reason. We need the taxes of the the richest to help fund the government services we all depend on.

Health care reform has already started producing benefits. I hope that those who are still deciding how to vote in this election will take these facts into consideration and vote for Democrats who care about your needs.

DL said...

Prosciutto @ 9:10

I hear this phrase "working person" or "working family" a lot. When a politician uses one of these phrases, I can only guess what he (or she) means.

In your opinion, what is the upper limit on income for a single person (who is filing an individual tax return) to qualify as a “working person”…?

McFearless said...

This "thought starter" from GM is one of my favorite bed-time stories:

http://mises.org/books/TRTS/

I find any concern over the Tea Party being similar to Nazi Germany a bit odd or misplaced if only for the fact that our last president signed into law the Patriot Act while our current president has extended some of the worst provisions within it.

karen said...

Tonight, i am speechless.. got my ballot in tho..

McFearless said...

Karen,

did you write-in LC for I-man and I?

DL said...

Regarding Prosciutto’s comment @ 9:10,

In the year 2005, 134 million tax returns were filed, of which 90 million were “taxable” (i.e., taxes were owed).

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/05inrate.pdf

For simplicity, let’s assume that there are still 90 million “taxable” tax returns filed; for simplicity, also assume that a married couple (filing a joint return) counts as one taxpayer. As it happens, Obama spend about 900 billion dollars in “stimulus”, and “aid to the states”, and other bailouts. Thus, if we make the simplifying assumption that there are 90 million taxpayers, what Obama has done is to increase the long term tax liability on those taxpayers by $10,000 each.

So, yes, they got $400, or $800 from uncle Obama. But in exchange, they acquired a $10,000 obligation.

Such a deal.

Anonymous said...

(8:13)

angry white people

Yeah that's the problem. We need less of those. They ought to all be silenced and eliminated to make the world a better place.

Tomorrow, when you vote. Vote for women, minorities, and gays. That ought to solve most of the worlds problems.

prosciutto said...

DL, that's the funny thing. We assume that the author of that "letter to the editor" is a working person, or a retired working person. But what does that mean? I looked her house up on Zillow. It is worth $1.5 million. It has appreciated twelve-fold since she bought it in 1978. But she paid only $3000 in property taxes last year, thanks to California Prop 13 (passed in 1978), which more or less freezes tax assessments as of the time of purchase. So what's a "working person"? God knows. Maybe it all boils down to how well you remember the 1960s?

PS: Mine is the decisive vote which shall boot Babs Boxer out of office tomorrow for the first time since 1983.

Maxine Waters said...

Thank you, Thor, for your ringing endorsement of me as a candidate.

I can't wait for your vote, and to serve your interests for another term in Congress.

DL said...

Maxine,

Can you get me some TARP money under the table?

Andy T said...

Prosciutto...

"I looked her house up on Zillow. It is worth $1.5 million. It has appreciated twelve-fold since she bought it in 1978. But she paid only $3000 in property taxes last year, thanks to California Prop 13 (passed in 1978), which more or less freezes tax assessments as of the time of purchase."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Classic California story there...

Prop. 13 had all sorts of weird unintended consequences. It's one of the side affects of the "direct democracy" approach.

Anything that "sounds good" will get passed, without a ton of thoughtful consideration. I really love California...so many great people there...it's such a beautiful state...but man, there are some "structural problems."

Every place has their "issues"...of course. But, Cali seems to have more than its share.

Good news, though, Jerry Brown is back in town. Things should be cool now....

[Note: One of the things I most remember about my Grandparent's house was a framed invitation to a Ball hosted by Edmund G. Brown. My Grandfather was a "higher up" in a very major California union, a big time California Democrat, and a big time supporter of the Browns. So, I understand the place and the politics pretty well. Sincerely hope Jerry can turn things around.]

DL said...

Unfortunately for the people of California, John Boehner isn't going to allow any more bailouts.

Jerry Brown is going to have to figure out how to fix the problems himself. (Perhaps he should start by raising taxes on those evil rich people in San Clemente).

RPH said...

For the record, I am not Ritholtz. I suppose I am honored to be mistaken as TWSWB. Just a lowly lurker who could not contain his fingers. Maybe I should say hello more often.

prosciutto said...

DL: Well put. There is no sense dwelling on the $1.4 trillion in questionable mortgages that have been forked onto the taxpayer's plate under Bernanke's aegis. Does it even matter whom we elect? Bernanke is gonna do what Bernanke is gonna do, and all the pomaded Wall Street cognoscenti are gonna front-run him and back-run him, and there will be an asset feeding frenzy right up until the bottom falls out. And meanwhile, there is not a blessed thing that you or I or any sane person can do to remain sane and balanced or prudent (what does that word even mean?); instead, we will be reduced to inveterate gamblers, our hopes and dreams pinned on the stock market like it's some stupid baseball game, the game that makes you wander out into the street and holler "woo hoo!" because the grossly overcompensated team in your greater metropolitan area happened to defeat the grossly overcompensated team in some other metropolitan area (both teams being owned by lecherous billionaires of course).

"In a little hilltop village, they gambled for my clothes."

DL said...

Prosciutto @ 11:12

“..all the pomaded Wall Street cognoscenti are gonna front-run [Bernanke] and back-run him, and there will be an asset feeding frenzy right up until the bottom falls out. And meanwhile, there is not a blessed thing that you or I or any sane person can do“.

Yes, nothing you can do except try to be a good investor/trader.

Gisele Bundchen said...

Prosciutto, your bitter tirade has stolen my heart!

Andy T said...

My paternal grandmother always thought that major sporting competitions were rigged by the powers that be...i.e. games were rigged to increase television viewership.

This years World Series should put an end to those ideas. Did anyone watch it?

MLB and Fox could have had a NYY/Philly series...but instead, they got Giants/Rangers.

Who do you think MLB/Fox would have rather have had?

And then the thing ends in 5 games?

Horrible series....

Not a fan of baseball.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

I thought the series was pretty good. The pitchers knew how to work the batters. Plus ending on a full count with two outs was great.

AmenRa said...

Wow. Watching this video of a drummer who also plays the drum machine with insane skill: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6sWh607NH4&feature=player_embedded#!

CV said...

new thread

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