Sunday Evening Post: Halloween and Election Edition

Hello All,

Embedded here tonight are two reports: the typical S&P Update and also a look at Crude Oil (WTI). The S&P 500 continues it's uninteresting/grind higher as Mr. Market seems to have bears in a "sleeper hold." One can't shake the feeling that we're approaching some sort of important "inflection point" with:

a) The 2012 Midterm Elections;
b) Big Ben and the Funky Bunch announcing QE2 imminently;
c) Investor sentiment near all time highs;
d) This cover from Barrons (h/t Ritholtz):


Points a&b above seem to be fully discounted by the market which is expecting a Republican tidal wave in the House of Representatives and a huge amount (Trillion?) of Quantitative Easing. Anything other then those outcomes next week, will trigger a market correction. Given that these ideas are already being discounted, a "sell the news" outcome seems like a high probability. In other words, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the market rallies hard this week. It would take something unexpected--like a Republican takeover of the Senate or a shockingly huge amount of QE2 in order keep this market rallying.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Halloween Fun Fact from Wikipedia:

The word Halloween is first attested in the 16th century and represents a Scottish variant of the fuller All-Hallows-Even ("evening"), that is, the night before All Hallows Day. Up through the early 20th century,the spelling "Hallowe'en" was frequently used, eliding the "v" and shortening the word. Although the phrase All Hallows is found in Old English (ealra hālgena mæssedæg, mass-day of all saints), All-Hallows-Evenis itself not attested until 1556....
...The custom of wearing costumes and masks at Halloween goes back to Celtic traditions of attempting to copy the evil spirits or placate them, in Scotland for instance where the dead were impersonated by young men with masked, veiled or blackened faces, dressed in white.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are some things you just don't discuss in "polite company:" Politics and Religion. Fortunately, this is just a blog....

So, some thoughts on the upcoming elections and politics....

The "Tea Party Movement" has gained a lot of attention in this election cycle. The general theme upon which this 'movement' is centered is that:

a) our debt/deficits are too high;
b) government should be smaller;
c) taxes should be decreased;
d) nobody should be bailed out.

The rise of the "Tea Partiers" was a direct result of all the various bailouts and the Health Care "overhaul." It seems, at the core, most Americans are skeptical of big government and would rather not see anyone "bailed out." While I'm not a big fan of the various Tea Party "leaders," I'm happy to see Americans getting pissed off and heading to the polls--it's a good thing for our "democracy."

Unfortunately, the Tea Partiers have not "gone all they way" yet and come to the realization that their views are more closely aligned with the Libertarian Party than any other organized political party.

I'm a proud Libertarian. There's actually very few true Libertarians out there in the world, because most folks, when faced with very difficult circumstances, will inevitably look to the Government to "solve their problems." Most people who call themselves "libertarian," just say that to seem "centrist" or "non-ideological." (Please see Barry Ritholtz as an example.) For those who might think we're kooky or strange, I encourage you to peruse the LP Platform. I find it to be the most appealing and refreshing set of "ideals" out there. A few "snippets"....

On "Economic Freedom:"

Libertarians want all members of society to have abundant opportunities to achieve economic success. A free and competitive market allocates resources in the most efficient manner. Each person has the right to offer goods and services to others on the free market. The only proper role of government in the economic realm is to protect property rights, adjudicate disputes, and provide a legal framework in which voluntary trade is protected. All efforts by government to redistribute wealth, or to control or manage trade, are improper in a free society.
On "Personal Relationships:"
Sexual orientation, preference, gender, or gender identity should have no impact on the government's treatment of individuals, such as in current marriage, child custody, adoption, immigration or military service laws. Government does not have the authority to define, license or restrict personal relationships. Consenting adults should be free to choose their own sexual practices and personal relationships.
Which other political party would assert both of those common sense ideals of Freedom? This should be the last time I bring up politics in a Blog Post, until the next Election.

So, as they say in Chicago, vote early and vote often. Let the Games begin.




Crude Oil 31 October 2010

147 comments:

mcHAPPY said...

That is some good charting, Andy. Thanks.

Great Post said...

Andy - Thanks for taking the time to post that.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

Fantastic and educational post! Thanks Andy.. i really appreciated your crude analysis this time.. but am always happy to keep track of your spx thots..

DL said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mcHAPPY said...

Anyone check the 10 minute chart of the EUR/USD? That is a long red candle. I wonder that is a big crack in the foundation or just a hiccup?

DL said...

On the subject of currencies...

GBP/USD rallied after the election there
(from about 1.45 to about 1.58).

I'm thinking that some of that rally could be reversed in the wake of the election here on Tuesday.

wunsacon said...

CV,

In my last replies on the prior thread, I didn't address one aspect of my earlier comments -- about the "Kruggles/Keynes bashing". I should do that, or else I'm dodging the part of my original comment.

What tweaks me about the Keynes-bashing is: Keynes said to "save in good times". And, AFAIK, Keynes did not advise FDR to bail out equity and bondholders so as to retain the huge wealth gap.

I think we should stop bashing the dead guy, who probably wouldn't recommend half the policies Establishmentarians have since thrust upon us.

DL said...

wunsacon,

Nobody's a Keynsian during periods of economic prosperity; we never run a budget surplus no matter how much growth we have.

wunsacon said...

And as for "Kruggles", I don't know much of what he says. If he favored bailing out the banks/bondholders, I disagree with him there. But, even if I ultimately disagree with some of his policies, I've read some columns from him that make sense to me. Sometimes people make a caricature out of him and dismiss him rather harshly. The first few times, it's *funny* to read. But, the joke gets old.

Kinda like the way the characters in "Family Guy" always bash Meg, no matter what she does. What's with that anyway?? ;-)

Andy T said...

Wunsacon--

Agree on the Keynes bashers. What he actually talked about is not what we're doing for sure. The same could have been said of Marxism as well--it was never really applied properly.

But, that's the failing of Keynesianism--the idea that governments/politicians will "save" money that does not belong to them in the "good times" just doesn't work. It's the "nature" of government to spend whatever they have, which is why it's best to give it as little as possible.

What would you do with money that was just given to you? What would most people do?

They'd spend it.

I-Man said...

Thanks, Andy...

Dat good shit, mon.

I-Man said...

Everyone psyched for Catalystic Week?

I'm feeling a bit behind... "Whiskey Dads" during tonights trick or treating excursion might end up being a bad idea... might have to skip the open.

Feeling a little too tipsy for 10pm on a Sunday nite.

I-Man said...

Ditto on the Mistress' sentiments on the crude...
Good to see you hit that.

gristle said...

Silver hits $25 an ounce.

It really is the end of the world!

mcHAPPY said...

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39945465/1

"Separate data from the Investment Company Institute showed net flows of cash into equities in the past two weeks for the first time in six months."

Wow! 6 months. Not since May... uh, wait a minute.

“Investors are maybe reaching a tipping point,” said Brad Durham, EPFR’s managing director. “They are feeling perhaps that enough is enough with the bond flows and are starting to take on a bit more exposure to risk.”

BUY! BUY! BUY!

gristle said...

Hussman: "the Bernanke Fed evidently views democracy as a clumsy extravagance".

Can't argue with that!

mcHAPPY said...

That 10 minute candle I talked about in the Eur/USD is evident across most major currencies. I guess the Algo did a reshuffling.

AmenRa said...

Odd that no banks were closed Friday by the FDIC...

McFearless said...

thanks for the link the the Invictus post at BR's

People voting against their own economic self interests? This is not news, but glad to see others are catching on. As has been said before, SI has done extensive research on this topic, most people are not thinking at all when they vote.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I know you are investing in Pimco Bond funds like pttax, and I read your Pimco tea leaves a few weeks back about next year and the thoughts Pimco had about what they might earn.

What do you think about Pondx?

Bruce

McFearless said...

Bruce,

fwiw, I've sold about $6 million of PTTAX in the last two weeks. I'd expect pondx to do fine over the next few months, probably better than total return, but it can have up to 50% junk though so if it were my account I would prefer to use JNK or another ETF for junk exposure right now instead of a mutual fund so that I could place stops on it if I began to have concern. I'm expecting a pick up in volatility in 2011 so I'm leaning pretty heavy toward ETF's again instead of mutual funds.

karen said...

Speaking of banks: NYTimesDealBook

Wilmington Trust and M&T Bank to Merge http://nyti.ms/dwRqz4

good morning!

McFearless said...

hey folks...don't look now, but check out Wilmington Trust this morning


wooo hooooooo!

karen said...

Ben! a guitar prodigy for you.. amazing..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGTfDf4b5oE&feature=share

karen said...

Oh! my fav subject: davidmwessel

Total monthly free rent for Americans not paying mortgages: $2.6 billion. Stealth stimulus? http://on.wsj.com/d3XXFf

Anonymous said...

Clavadista

karen said...

Looks like crude breaking up today.. shaking my head..

McFearless said...

Karen,

cool video, he couldn't even express how much he likes to play, he just had to play to show it!

karen said...

ambac misses interest payment

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704141104575588033217303588.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

McFearless said...

Odd where AT has mapped out the Wave 4 of this terminal C, it just so happens to coincide with the range that at least a dozen mm's between friday and today stated they would be a buyer at since they are expecting a pull-back near term.

really though, I'm just enjoying the waterfall in WL.....hellllloooooooo down there!

McFearless said...

they are calling it a "take under"

lmao

karen said...

the indices synchronicity continues to upset me.. .45% .46% .52%.. give or take a .01..

karen said...

TBT.. buying op?! too scary : ) 33.30 was breakdown, i think..

BinT said...

Thanks Ben...we are swamped this morning, but I will be reading you guys...

karen said...

chsm1th

todays topic: Are the Fed's Honchos Simpletons, Or Are They Just Taking Orders? http://bit.ly/c6hJXa

karen said...

LB will love the yen move this morning.. I think I have to go back to bed.. just saw up .71% on all three indices..

McFearless said...

we are done with the WL trade at this point. that pretty much made my whole year right there.

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/investor-holding-of-cash-has-dropped-to-its-lowest-level-since-april-2000-2010-11

karen said...

oh my.. look at hyg and jnk today.. the hyg:lqd fell outta bed..

AmenRa said...

Nothing matters until the FOMC BS is over with.

AmenRa said...

...but ISM Manu Report lessens the need for QE2 which means some large traders may have to rethink positions.

Anonymous said...

"People spend too much time finding other people to blame, too much energy finding excuses for not being what they are capable of being, and not enough energy putting themselves on the line, growing out of the past, and getting on with their lives." -J. M. Straczynski

From BR's quote of the day. Good one.

AmenRa said...

Is everyone staring at their charts in disbelief?

ben22 said...

Ra,

I am, I really thought I was going to have to wait until next year for WL to wave goodbye.

or are you talking about the silver chart? lol.

McFearless said...

alright peeps, or anyone that's around, I gotta go for the r.o.d. meetings monday.

good luck

make sure you study up for your votes...I know you all are.

Matthew said...

I think that Wednesday is going to be a circus.

1. The election results will be mostly decided from the previous evening. We already have a pretty good idea of the outcome, and the outcome is largely neutral for equities, but that won't stop traders from having an orgasmic session.

2. The FOMC will release its statement. We already know mostly what it will say. The only question mark is the size of the queasing, which is not uncertain to the broker-dealers, who were given the privilege of setting the amount for the Governors. I think this is already priced into the market, but it won't stop the traders from having an orgasmic session.

My gut instinct is that it will be a sell the news kind of day. However, I thought the same about 2008 election and we got a nice little rally before the market melted down again.

Jennifer said...

Morning all! No trading for me today...all doped up after minor salivary gland surgery. Nat gas breakout? UPL way up.

Leftback said...

LB's equity exposure is now down to about 16% long, 11% in dividends and 5% in index funds (SPY). All Qs gone. No shorts yet. No bonds except high yield.

We have now hit at some point EURUSD 1.40, AUDUSD 1.00, GBPUSD 1.60 and Ag 25.00, with a near miss at USDJPY 80. This seems like an inflection point, and one could see the commodity/energy stocks and emerging markets (LB is OUT) taking a hit.

Oddly enough LB is starting to fancy the Nikkei, but not just yet.

Leftback said...

Betty is toast here at 1.60.

Two words that scare LB: Governor Paladino.
Nuttier than a fruit cake.

I-Man said...

Ugh... Whiskey Dads.

Leftback said...

We didn't get where we are today by losing money trading in the face of invisible catalysts. There will be more money to be made this week by fading big moves than by trying to game the FED.

We have made some nice change in the last month. Some days the best thing you can do on a quiet day is to walk over to a big pile of money and pick it up. So for now we are happy to admire the pile.

Leftback said...

A side benefit of being flat is not having to watch every tick.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"Oddly enough LB is starting to fancy the Nikkei, but not just yet."

Karen's heart will be broken....Englishmen!

Leftback said...

It seems pretty obvious that the best trades in the near future are going to be shorting EUR, GBP and JPY. Probably easier to trade these directly than to work with derivatives of these, such as gold/silver, although I think that will work as well, just hate the volatility.

Short Treasuries will work too but there might be a head fake move lower in the hours immediately following the announcement. Anyway, sell strength in Ts from here and fade the big spikes down in yield...

karen said...

I'm back.. glad I missed the melt up.. assume that ISM brot the market back to earth.. LOL.. it's supposed to work the other way around.. strong economy = strong stock market.. what a farce.

Leftback said...

ZIRP/QE inverts normal metrics.
Four legs good, two legs better.

Obama said...

Don't forget,

Vote for change...

...change you can believe in.

Anonymous said...

1197 holds again....

karen said...

As for voting.. I've got my CA mail in ballot in front of me and the only box I know how to vote is the marijuana measure..

I don't even know whom to vote for governor!

karen said...

TBT had a nice little turnaround.. interesting..

karen said...

oh, now i see that JNK is x-div today.. that's why it is down .30
likewise HYG..

I-Man said...

Now even I would vote for that...

Should the earth feel guilty fi produce ganja in the wild?

karen said...

I know I am NOT voting for Barbara Boxer..

DL said...

Yeah, I've never understood why Californians love B. Boxer so much.

(But Dianne Feinstein is O.K.)

Jennifer said...

But she worked so hard!!!

DL said...

Looks like Meg Whitman has wasted $120M.

I-Man said...

Meg Whitman, "C'mon man..."

Leftback said...

She can sell her signs on E-Bay.

DL said...

funny

creedence said...

meg whitman sign, "i see a bad moon a-risin'"

kettle-to-pot said...

where are all the pot stirrers on this blog anyway?

karen said...

HH! http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hendry-on-bbc-newsnight-2010-10

cv said...

Meg Whitman can sell CALIFORNIA on E-Bay...

I'll start the bidding at a quarter...

DL said...

You want pot-stirrers?

Go to TBP.

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/11/01/marketbeat-box-watch/

If there’s one thing that gets the blood pumping, it’s box...

cv said...

My first move will be to sell West Hollywood to the arabs...

karen said...

this is a GREAT read:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/is-the-stock-market-a-discounting-mechanism-par-excellence/

Leftback said...

Must... resist.... comments about box..... blood pumping..... etc..

cv said...

Take a look at the DAILY candle on $SPX (today vs. last Monday)... in this moment...

SPY, today, hit within one cent of last Mondays high before pulling back...

AmenRa said...

TNTSNBN strikes again...

Waiting to see if ES takes out its open from the overnight pump session.

Leftback said...

That had the feeling of a Top this morning.

Not that I am an expert on Tops. Although LB has more than once reflected on the possible loveliness of Karen's Top, while unable to view it at present...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sec-is-investigating-jpmorgan-2010-11

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/metlife-announces-foreclosure-delay-judicial-states

karen said...

bac and c... what is left to say that i haven't said already ???

mcHAPPY said...

LOL 2:31

One of those days where that just made me grin. Juvenille but I'll take it.

Anonymous said...

We are so NOT juvenile. Earlier we resisted the temptation to log the SIXTY-NINTH comment of the day. Just to prove our maturity...

Anonymous said...

Golfer Lee Westwood revealed that he was running an errand for his wife when he was told the news.

"I'd been sent to the supermarket to buy some mashed potatoes and something else when my caddie rang me to tell me Martin Kaymer wasn't playing very well and I was about to be world number one," confirmed Westwood.

karen said...

Treasury cuts Q1 borrowing estimate to $362 bln
3:03 PM ET 11/1/10 | WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. government is expected to borrow $362 billion in the current first quarter of the year, October through December, an estimate $17 billion less than previously forecasted, the Treasury Department said Monday. Treasury cited a higher-than-expected cash balance at the start of the quarter. The government borrowed $396 billion in the July through September quarter. Treasury assumes an end-of-December cash balance of $300. For the January-March quarter, Treasury said it expects to borrow $431 billion with a cash balance of $270 billion. The agency will announce on Wednesday the sizes and terms of the auctions that it holds four times a year to finance the debt.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"In other news, TMM would like to pay their respects to the passing of Argentina's Nestor Kirchner, for the reaction in Argentine assets was simply astounding, with the stock market up 10%. Now TMM don't bear any ill feeling to President Kirchner, but it just goes to show what can happen when economic policy is run essentially by printing money to fund deficit spending and ignoring inflation by claiming that it has only gone up due to "one-off" factors."


...this, as most of you already know, was from the Macro Man website...just made me wonder a second or two...what if Ben had a real medical problem? What would markets do?.....

karen said...

The Federal Reserve will probably begin a new round of unconventional monetary easing this week by announcing a plan to buy at least $500 billion of long-term securities, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Policy makers, pursuing unprecedented stimulus, have cut the benchmark rate almost to zero and bought $1.7 trillion in securities without generating growth fast enough to bring down unemployment from near a 26-year high.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agBZSa.RQWFs

AmenRa said...

K-K-K-K-K-K-K-A-A-A-T-T-T-H-H-H-E-E-E-R-R-R-I-I-I-N-N-N-E-E-E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

karen said...

i'm pining for 1170...

Jennifer said...

GM's secondary prices on the 17th and trades on the 18th -- think that marks the top? I wonder if they will get it done in time.

Leftback said...

i'm pining for 1170...

LB is pining for the KT.

ben22 said...

quite the "correction" we are having...some might call this a soft-patch.

ben22

Leftback said...

VIX up 6 straight days. T-bills at 11 bps. 70% bull ratio.
Those are three signs that have LB very cautious.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a92fnCKKcP_8&pos=3

karen said...

mrtopstep

"PIT BULL" : fed prints the money and then buys US debt---i wonder how long that ponzi scheme can last?

ben22 said...

once everyone starts calling it a ponzi scheme then it's probably close to over.

How many prominent people have called it just that in the last six months...how about in the last six weeks?

Lots of Joe Retailers utter the word ponzi to their advisors in meetings now as well.

Leftback said...

LB is calling a top in the use of the word Ponzi.

karen said...

It wouldn't shock me to see crude or gold plunge by 9%...

Natural Gas Futures Plunge ~9% From Overnight Highs
Mon Nov 1 15:30:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Dec natural gas shed 4.9% today to settle at $3.84 per MMBtu. It was quite an interesting session for natural gas futures, which traded to its best levels, at $4.187, before falling over 9% throughout the day to its lowest levels at $3.825. The dramatic sell off ended a three session rally for natural gas prices. Dec crude oil finished higher by 2% to $82.95 per barrel. It spiked to its highs of the session, at $83.86, shortly after the open of pit trade and spent the remainder of the day chopping around just shy of those highs.

Dec gold finished lower by 0.6% to $1350.60 per ounce, while Dec silver closed off 0.1% to $24.55 per ounce. Both metals were pressured lower throughout the day as the dollar moved higher. In overnight trade, Dec silver futures traded to a fresh 30-year high at $25.05 per ounce.

karen said...

look at UBS and DB..

ben22 said...

was that really Barry that posted on the other site? looks like it was him. That's funny, did he lurk on the blogs? Maybe CV wasn't making that up.

Andy T said...

Vikings....Waive Randy Moss.

Nice.

karen said...

Jennifer.. someone just tweeted that the GM IPO is tomorrow..

AmenRa said...

Andy T

"It was a business decision" Moss.
"It was a business decision" Vikings.
Nuff said.

karen said...

look at XRT candle..

ben22 said...

CV,

Not that I'm keeping score or anything but off the top of my head:

1. PSU: Victory
2. Oakland: Victory
3. Bo Jacksons: Victory
4. Wilmington Trust: Victory
5. UnC ranked #8 in the AP poll (we'll call this motivation on our way to victory)

looks pretty good on paper man.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, we are down 150 points from the high today..that is quite the statement....

Andy,

Moss finished his postgame conference yesterday with love and kisses to the Patriots...how did he expect Minnesota to keep him?

Jennifer said...

Must...close...green...

ben22 said...

also, did you guys happen to see the % of PM's in the Barron's poll that think stocks will be the best performing asset class over the next 6-12 months

62%

must have been planned putting it right on Phi like that right?

also, as DR notes regarding this:

"not only that, 70% see little chance of another economic expansion — this is otherwise known as the herd mentality"

Leftback said...

Graham Summers.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/graham-summers’-weekly-market-forecast-waiting-fed

The highlights;

However, the implications of whatever the Fed does are already clear.

1. If the Fed DOESN’T announce ANY QE 2 program this week, stocks will Crash.

2. If the Fed announces a small or disappointing QE 2 program this week, stocks will fall, but not collapse, as the US Dollar rallies.

3. If the Fed announced a HUGE QE 2 program this week, then stocks will explode while the US Dollar tanks and Gold goes vertical. This move will also intensify the global currency and trade wars and lead to a horrendous worsening of the US’s already fragile economy.

None of these options are particularly attractive, but number three is absolutely the WORST choice. Indeed, my biggest concern going forward is that the Fed might be stupid enough to actually do it (the Fed survey of Primary Dealers last week strongly hints at this).

My best suggestion this week is to stay clear of the market. There are simply too many factors at work (all of them with MAJOR implications for the markets) for safe investing. So it’s best to keep on the sidelines and let the debris clear before putting any capital to work.

LB concurs with all of the above.

Jennifer said...

I'm going to be ticked if the market decides to turn down now that I'm finally taking care of all of my lingering medical issues. I have a lot of doctors appointments lined up during market hours this week.

karen said...

cstr is the new nflx.. LOL..

it is now whether but when these naz tickers come back to earth..

Leftback said...

LB offers a fun video on brain research, an amateur interest of many:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8304655.stm

Rather nicely done here by Professor David Nutt (aka "The Nutter" to his colleagues). Seeing is believing.

karen said...

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/11/difficult-financial-realities.html

"Wilmington Trust today has two very strong fee-based businesses that continue to perform well. However, as our third quarter earnings announcement shows, we continue to face difficult financial realities associated with the credit quality of the loan portfolio in our banking business.....

ben22 said...

ooh, I'll be watching that. thanks leftback.

ben22 said...

"Wilmington Trust today has two very strong fee-based businesses that continue to perform well"

not entirely true....lol, but the market already made my point for me on this one, nothing else needs to be said.

bitchez.

cv said...

ahab has Moss in FF...

Can't catch a break...

ben22 said...

oh man, I was wondering who had him, man he's had bad luck this year

look out for my boy blount on TB.

stud.

Jennifer said...

VIX still up, so if we close green then odds favor red tomorrow.

Leftback said...

ben knows where all the bodies are buried in Delaware.

Does he ever... I suppose it is the WITCHING HOUR for shareholders of WL as we approach the election.

Leftback said...

Sold EEM. Don't like this market one bit.

karen said...

thanks, LB.. interesting and clear..

Jennifer said...

Karen -- that UBS chart...talk about breaking a trendline. My kids just got home and they are fighting about their candy hoards already!

karen said...

http://dealbreaker.com/2010/11/greenlight-capital-were-still-right-about-st-joe-despite-what-the-haters-will-tell-you/

cv said...

Blount had a nice little hurdle jump on a 50 yard run at the end of the Cardinals game...

I gotta go...

I'll be taking the TEXANS to "cover" the 5.5 point spread tonight...

It'll probably be a close game & come down to a field goal at the end...

(2 units on Texans)...

cv said...

Oh...

And VOTE EARLY & OFTEN!

ben22 said...

more on WL:

remember as well that when they began their desparation blitz to get deposits this summer it also came at the time when Michele Rollins was heating up in her bid for a seat in Congress here in DE, she would often state how her financial experience was necessary in "economic times like these"

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2010/03/19/millionaire-michele-rollins-takes-bonus-from-wilmington-trust-tarp-funds/

I'm really enjoying this today, it's not even about making money, it's about seeing liars get "found out" for everyone to see, it is very satisfying.

karen said...

the xlf and faz candles are something else.. you shouldn't even look at them.. talk about manic.. to break up, then down, in the same day.. and who came in for the last hour save.. ?

ben22 said...

I'm 100% in the DE camp on St. Joe.

Berkowitz has proven that for me already. He turned and ran the moment DE offered to discuss the stock with him, then fell back on insults to try and defer that attention.

all in due time.

Leftback said...

I'm really enjoying this today, it's not even about making money, it's about seeing liars get "found out" for everyone to see, it is very satisfying.

x 100.

cv said...

The "good news" is, they'll be able to BLAME it on the GOP this time...

Way to "max out" the credit card on your way out the door Dems...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-anticipates-700-billion-gross-borrowing-need-end-march-2011-bust-debt-ceiling-q1

ben22 said...

seems like the suspicious package thing died down rather quickly doesn't it?

watching all that on tv last week was odd to say the least, especially the questions from media about what prompted them to be suspicious in the first place, a question nobody answered (or as one answer was "sometimes when you pull a string you are pulling it for a reason and find something else" ....wtf?, I'm sure thats in the interest of national security and all....but doesnt' anyone else find it strange that the claim was that it was other information they had that helped them "stop an attack on America", that was the progression I watched on tv:

1. suspicious packages suspected on planes
2. packages don't have any explosives but we are checking anyway, to be safe
3. no, yes they do, they were headed for jewish places of worship (I'm sure these places just pop open all the packages they get from Yemen anyway, right?)
4. yes folks, it's official, we have stopped a terrorist attack

I mean.....this was cargo, it was how many months ago since underwear boy walked right on to the plane and they didn't stop that but they were all over this one?

I'm not much for conspiracy, but this was strange to the tenth imo.

ben22 said...

hey, I didn't see any of you mention it was a POMO day

c'mon man!

Leftback said...

What's so sad is that none of us believes government security statements at all, going back to the Bush administration. We simply don't know if this is for real - or trumped up to distract us from some criminal activity being conducted by or on behalf of Wall Street.

Leftback said...

POMOZ, BITCHEZ..

like that...?

ben22 said...

For the Gann Fann

from Cobra:

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TM3Wzh5IbNI/AAAAAAAAJBI/irne1KyWo84/s1600-h/TimeAnalysis%5B2%5D.png

ben22 said...

leftback,

yes, I agree, it is sad, confusing, etc.

Another thing that bothers me is how often I hear the word homeland. I'm young, though I'm pretty certain that we used to just call it "home".....

I think about this when I'm watching these world series games in the 7th, the song goes:

Gold Bless America, my home sweet home.



there was another group that got fond of the whole "homeland reference," pretty disgusting set of people as I'm told.

Leftback said...

The QE2 Bond Report 11.1.10

An odd day in fixed income. We began with personal income/spending numbers that were weak, so whoop whoop, $4T QE coming, Ts were bid. Then at 10am we had the manufacturing numbers, hot diggity, cancel the QE, NO QE AT ALL, I TELL YOU, and long Ts were sold again, then finally we had a bit of a sell-off in equities and HY got kind of weak as well. Much ado about nothing.... we will get $600B of QE.

Corpies: LQD -0.03%; AGG -0.04%; JNK -0.42%; HYG -0.19%;
Govies: TLT -0.43%; IEI 0.05%; TIP 0.16%
Hedgies: TBT 0.68%

Happy not to be involved here other than long HY and looking for a big dip to buy. Lots more silly volatility ahead this week.

Leftback said...

Do not insult the Homeland, Ausländer !!!

Yes, LB isn't the only one who finds the airport like a war zone, as the SS patrols with sniffer dogs, for the safety of the Homeland.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Great day in the salt mine today..BinT back to normal...hiked yesterday, energy back to where it is supposed to be.

And Peyton gets revenge tonight....! ..my only question is what happened to the Rangers? Before the series started, I would have put my fiat-based folding money on them...

ben22 said...

also, I didn't think Clash of the Titans was awful or anything, I almost punted on it after some of the posts here.

my wife wondered how I knew the release the kracken part, I told her about this crazy cat CV and how he's got this blog, and the market was going to go down but it didn't, etc etc.

the movies ending was weak, some of the visual stuff was pretty cool though, especially the visual effects used to show where the gods were, the figurines that fell from the top of whatever they were in as they were being killed, thought that was really neat how that was all presented.

Leftback said...

LB is thinking $600B, perhaps $50B/month for 12 months, or a sharper $100B/month for 6 months. The FED likes to think in per month terms, b/c it helps them plan the schedule of the POMOs.

Get used to POMOs.... we will be trading them all next year.

karen said...

chatted with my mother on the telephone this weekend.. one of our discussions was of the term "homeland"

palin was in her town this weekend.. SCARY..

gotta run but check back tonight!

oh, and laughing tho I shouldn't be.. if you watch that 'alcohol's affects' video.. it'll make you WANT a drink.. and what a one-stop shop and price performer.. legal, too!

72bat said...

"there was another group that got fond of the whole "homeland reference," pretty disgusting set of people as I'm told."

as soon as the name for dhs was released, i groaned inwardly (and a little verbalization as well), surely "they" are not going down that road. our culture/society has such short memory. a great deal of what passes for domestic security these days is all too reminiscent of the secret police of tzarist russia, kaiser wilhelm's intelligence services,
the folks kafka wrote about, trade union busters in germany, on and on, nothing new under the sun

Leftback said...

A very neat performance from Professor Nutt.

Sort of encapsulates the pharmacology of alcohol in a nutshell....

Anonymous said...

72bat

The US has been a pseudo-democracy for some time now. Kafka and Orwell would have had a field day with all this. B*n L*d*n seems to have become a focal figure for The Two Minute Hate, but we could always install Blankfein as an alternative, closer to the original as well.

Have to go, Black Helicopters...

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