TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles

Morning Audibles

Where do we go from here?

Trading in Capital Markets whereby the large bulk of trading happens between algos that are flooded almost daily by what might as well be described as "free cash" can pretty much do damage to any models that even the most experienced trader might have cobbled during a lifetime of observation...

It is still true, however, that machines & policy are ultimately things that are the stuff of human minds... As such, maybe there still exist some faint echoes of past patterns & behaviors...

Here's one that I dug up and put in the April 16th, 2010 thread... (10 days before the 2010 highs that were hit on April 26th)...

With respect to that chart, here's what the SPX looks like in the past 50 days...

In the land of Milk & Honey... You must put them on the table...

276 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 276 of 276 Newer› Newest»

CV said...: @Bruce

Congrats on that move...

Say... Do you want to play a little game like this with those profits?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqakCa-MysE&feature=related; November 4, 2010 at 3:24 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty,

I have fought selling this half a dozen times today....

It is just the way I am wired....; November 4, 2010 at 3:25 PM
McFearless said...: no doubt leftback, I can't get the direction right every day, not to mention.; November 4, 2010 at 3:25 PM
karen said...: if you look fast you might see uup at 22..; November 4, 2010 at 3:25 PM
karen said...: GLD doesn't care about the dollar anymore.. just made new highs on the day, i believe.; November 4, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Ritholtz said...: CV (3:20),

The government lending money to the banks shows how corrupt the political system is.

Throwing $600B at Fannie & Freddie? Splendid idea.; November 4, 2010 at 3:26 PM
karen said...: 1220 here we come.; November 4, 2010 at 3:27 PM
McFearless said...: also, you guys need to stop saying stuff to me like "you are a good TA" or "hot trader"

I'm just some Joe with a little FA business, no better than any of you.; November 4, 2010 at 3:28 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

What was that post about popped stops?; November 4, 2010 at 3:30 PM
karen said...: there ya go.. across the board, new intraday indices highs for 2010; November 4, 2010 at 3:31 PM
CV said...: @Bruce

OTOH - you could hold on...

I've calculated that on the trajectory of todays move (from the August lows)...

The SPX will be at ALL TIME HIGHS by Mid-February...

Sounds appropriate in this wickedly strong economy...

@ McF

I forgot to say... you are a good TA dude...; November 4, 2010 at 3:33 PM
karen said...: AR, yup scary.. " If we break above 1,220, expect a second round of Popped Stops to rocket the market even higher."; November 4, 2010 at 3:33 PM
karen said...: zerohedge

JPM just dumped a boatload of CSX; November 4, 2010 at 3:34 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

this is why I always chuckle a bit when someone places stops right above a new high or low, while I understand it, you are basically asking to be stopped out, and likely will be just before the trade works for you.; November 4, 2010 at 3:35 PM
McFearless said...: time to erase those number 2's.....bitchez.

stevie hooch must be hitting the delete button on his EWFF for tomorrow now, gonna be a late night stevie.; November 4, 2010 at 3:36 PM
CV said...: @karen

a "boatload" of CSX?

did they also dump a trainfull of Dry Bulk Shipping?

lol; November 4, 2010 at 3:37 PM
karen said...: btw avg 10 day vol for csx 3,333,305
today's volume, 30,709,806
floating shares 372.3M; November 4, 2010 at 3:37 PM
McFearless said...: not sure if everyone else sees it but XLF could be breaking out

that's 5 months of trying to bust $15.

sector rotation time, financials never rallied on this move?; November 4, 2010 at 3:39 PM
CV said...: @karen

CSX hauls a lot of coal...

So I'm guessing they're PRICING IN the idea that no one will need any coal to burn now that they'll have trillions and quadrillions of banknotes to toss in the fire...; November 4, 2010 at 3:40 PM
karen said...: On Thursday 4th November 2010, @mrtopstep said:

rumor mill Fed expected to soon allow strong banks to increase dividends - WSJ''
[02:38:24 PM]: So everyone crushing BAC bc they hav $20bill of losses to take but now buying the stock b/c maybe later next year they will pay a dividend?
[02:38:27 PM]: Love this market; November 4, 2010 at 3:41 PM
karen said...: xlf and xrt and xhb all seeming to be in breakout mode.. not $bkx, however.

xhb??? xrt??? oh, it must be the wealth effect.; November 4, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: On Thursday 4th November 2010, @mrtopstep said:

now hearing chatter
JPM & USB running on this.... WSJ: Federal Reserve Expected Soon To Allow Strong Banks To Increase Dividends...WSJ: Banks Must Show Ability To Satisfy Basel, Dodd-Frank Cap Requirements...Fed Expected To Issue Guidance Outlining Standards Banks Must Meet To Increase Payouts

GOTTA LOVE THOSE REPUBLICANS...; November 4, 2010 at 3:44 PM
CV said...: Or...

Just to "theorize" in another direction...

Bernanke is getting a lot of global criticism from yesterday...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe2-day-after-entire-world-blasts-deranged-madmans-uncheckable-insanity

So... If the market DOUBLE TOPS here at 1220, then corrects back to the chart gap at 1090...

That's a 61.8% retracement to 1010...

If it happens to do that... All the people screaming "Ben You're a MADMAN" right now... Might change their tune to "Ben... Help us PLEASE"...

Ya never know...; November 4, 2010 at 3:46 PM
Leftback said...: xlf, xhb and xrt are still a pile of shit.

banks will raise divvy from 0.00 to 0.01/quarter. Big whoop.; November 4, 2010 at 3:48 PM
CV said...: of course... CHART GAPS never get filled...

Do they?; November 4, 2010 at 3:48 PM
karen said...: ChartLines, I suspect 1222 will get tagged but just don't wanna see 1214.05 breached first (bc that would cast doubt we already saw this move top.; November 4, 2010 at 3:53 PM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/11/does-anyone-care-about-jobs-data.html; November 4, 2010 at 3:55 PM
karen said...: alphatrends, buying in $IYR $XHB $XLF $GLD etc getting feeling of desperation, maybe forced buyins, wonder if will we hear of a toppled short fund; November 4, 2010 at 3:57 PM
Leftback said...: Took down more equities (index funds). Down to 12% dividend stocks and 13% high yield bonds. The rest is all cash.

Easy money is made, that's the last of what I went long with in August around the 1050 SPX area. It was a good run.

I can see a range trade from here on out for the rest of 2010. Would rather have very tight control of any longs I put on.; November 4, 2010 at 3:58 PM
karen said...: from TraderMark:

Best I can tell something in the S&P 1250-1300 area aka 2 more gap ups aka next week. Gap up tomorrow on whatever the news is on employment. Then gap up Monday because it's a Monday. Then we can start gapping on POMO days... 1300 easy.; November 4, 2010 at 3:59 PM
Leftback said...: EURUSD not going to the party. That should give bulls pause here, not too many more seats on the bus here, JOHN E. C'MON, MAN.; November 4, 2010 at 4:00 PM
Leftback said...: Gap up every day on whatever the news is.... LOL....

It only works until it doesn't.; November 4, 2010 at 4:00 PM
karen said...: triple top breakout in $indu today.. P&F target 12550; November 4, 2010 at 4:02 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV:

Where I come from TA means something entirely different...it is usally written T&A, but that is not important...; November 4, 2010 at 4:03 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: and it isn't tonsils..; November 4, 2010 at 4:04 PM
Leftback said...: LB's guess is that everyone who shorted around the 1202-1215 area and the precious metal equivalents has now been completely blown away.

We are running out of people to buy. Plus, this is getting silly.; November 4, 2010 at 4:04 PM
Andy T said...: BOOM BOOM POW.

Wow. Did not expect this for this week. Thought we might sell the "news"...

Wrong.

I suppose the good news is that a move to 1220 or 1250 was not unexpected ultimately.

Wonder what EWI's count becomes now? I "almost" feel bad for those guys now....

Will have to take another shot at adding shorts very soon. 1220 should be resistance now, then 1250.

Gulp.; November 4, 2010 at 4:04 PM
McFearless said...: I love how people are describing this as easy, they know all the pomo's they know every monday is a gap up

I love these kind of social mood enviro's, very intense, very convicted, everyone's got it down pat

and theeeeeeennnnnnnnnn.; November 4, 2010 at 4:04 PM
Andy T said...: Can't wait to see what the various sentiment indicators might be on the SP and Dollar after this day....; November 4, 2010 at 4:06 PM
McFearless said...: nobody should feel bad for EWI, they earned it.

and the count aint gonna change, I laid out exactly what they would do two months ago on this blog

as we go to new highs they are going to now relabel the move from the March lows as a larger zig zag, problem solved for them.

I'm not sure b/c I don't get the STU anymore but I'm almost positive they did the same ED Dan was trying to force on the charts recently.

they should come out with a new forecast letter tomorrow.; November 4, 2010 at 4:07 PM
CV said...: @karen

triple top breakout in $indu today.. P&F target 12550

---

Does that also mean 3P&ADH?; November 4, 2010 at 4:11 PM
karen said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1632812138&play=1
comments on Bernanke's Op-Ed; November 4, 2010 at 4:11 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Damn!

Didn't sell...Chuck says I did ok....

Belly up to the bars guys, this round is on me.; November 4, 2010 at 4:12 PM
Andy T said...: Right here the S&P is exactly at the top of the channel from the last two weeks.; November 4, 2010 at 4:12 PM
Leftback said...: When it seems like making money in stocks is like shooting fish in a barrel, it turns out that JOHN E is the fish....; November 4, 2010 at 4:13 PM
Leftback said...: LB began a tiny short in RUT to go with a modest short in EURUSD. Just a little bit of coverage for my long exposure.

Even Karen probably has a little bit of coverage right now...; November 4, 2010 at 4:14 PM
Leftback said...: What is that CV, 53 days?

Bruce piling in on the long side. Trolls taunting all over the site.
Irish and Greek spreads blowing out, markets going vertical.

Things that make you go... hmmmmm; November 4, 2010 at 4:16 PM
Leftback said...: Last thing on anyone's mind would be a round of profit-taking tomorrow. On THE ECONOMY, perhaps.; November 4, 2010 at 4:17 PM
McFearless said...: I'm in for one frou frou Bruce.; November 4, 2010 at 4:19 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

Sometimes even us idiots just get lucky...I will probably lose that profit tomorrow...but what a day!; November 4, 2010 at 4:20 PM
karen said...: okay, i'm tryng to sign off for a bit... both the market and the 80+ temps have me in a bit of a sweat : )

harmonictrader has a case for 1475.. you can even get 1400 with a straight edge.. Nic, shared this with me back in July.. but it is free:

http://harmonictrader.com/htreport0310.pdf; November 4, 2010 at 4:21 PM
McFearless said...: you want some sentiments on EWI, go read Dan's board today, it's classic.

you think bulls were taunting here, go over there and see them.; November 4, 2010 at 4:21 PM
McFearless said...: Bruce,

lose the profit tomorrow....????

cmon man!

set yourself up with a stop so you don't give it all back.

you can do it.; November 4, 2010 at 4:23 PM
karen said...: all i know is a am sick for pulling 1.2M out of USAGX.. would have been $2M now.. i don't even know if it is still sitting in money market fund of IRA.. will have to ask husband..

CV.. I think the gold sell-off was engineered in 2008.. that's when the smart $ got in.. floor at $1200 now?; November 4, 2010 at 4:24 PM
Leftback said...: We salute you, MOMOS.

K, I actually think we could go much higher, but this wave seems to be exhausting itself. It might be smart to look at the likely support levels in the event of a pullback, because you know that a correction will be bought.; November 4, 2010 at 4:25 PM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/fortune-freaks-out-because-erin-burnett-asked-a-statement-instead-of-a-question-2010-11

Erin Burnett didn't have a clue what she was doing interviewing hedge fund legend Julian Robertson, says Fortune Magazine writer Philip Elmer-DeWitt, who posted his take-down along side a photo of Burnett looking super ditzy.; November 4, 2010 at 4:26 PM
Leftback said...: K.,

All of 2008 was engineered. Remember those orderly 7% down moves, never triggered the circuit breakers? People were bleeding money but there was never a real sense of out of control panic, because it was all according to the script.; November 4, 2010 at 4:27 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'd practically rather convert the bullion to silver bullion at this point...

Higher beta from here I'm reckoning...

But what do I know?; November 4, 2010 at 4:27 PM
Leftback said...: I am pretty disgusted at the prices poor people are going to have to pay for food and fuel this winter thanks to Helicopter Boy.

They are really going to f**k this thing up if crude goes to $100 again and $gaso goes to $3 wholesale, $4 on the streets.

Someone needs to say something about a Strong Dollar Policy.

Timmy?; November 4, 2010 at 4:30 PM
Leftback said...: The Post-Qoital Afterglow Bond Report 11.4.10

In the aftermath of Ben Bernanke's latest attempt at encouraging an increase in FELLATION, fixed income assets remained tumescent across the board, with all durations and all classes being happily snapped up by eager inwestors. A steady firming in govies was accompanied by a spurt upwards in lower-rated debt. Yes. It was good for me, too.

Corpies: LQD 0.95%; AGG 0.48%; JNK 1.03%; HYG 1.30%;
Govies: TLT 0.78%; IEI 0.32%; TIP 0.24%
Hedgies: TBT -1.41%

One can only smile and shake one's head at the antics of Helicopter Boy and his merry band. Sooner or later we are going to see some stronger economic data and these bond purchases may begin to look imprudent. We will follow the POMO and auction trail and do some timely shorting as opportunities present themselves.; November 4, 2010 at 4:39 PM
CV said...: @LB

I'm still taking a "not so fast" approach...

Think of it this way... Over at ZH today, they penned THIS as a thread...

Yesterday's Ben Bernanke penned an Op-Ed in which he essentially said: "I am doing whatever I interpret my mandate to be, which right now means only thing: Dow 36,000.

I am only accountable to the private bank that is the Federal Reserve, a few Wall Street CEOs, and no one else. Congress has no power over me. Try to stop me."

And while the stock market is so far in love with this exhibition of outright hubris which promises record bonuses even as a record number of Americans subsist on foodstamps and real, not BLS, unemployment is over 20%, putting the Chairman in a long-overdue strait jacket will ultimately require an outright clash between those who still believe in that piece paper called the constitution and the kleptocratic cartel to whom the trade-off between a senior bond impairment and their first born is never all that clear.

And while more and more try to educate a hypnotized, strategically defaulting US society what QE2 means to their future, the rest of the world is already rising in a tidal wave of disapproval aimed at the Federal Reserve.

As the FT reports, Brazil, China, German, and Thailand, and soon everyone else, have already voiced thighest criticism and their condemnation of this escalation in FX wars.

Two days ago, Americans voted in a new set of Congressional leaders (who are very intent on doing something - EVEN IF THE ONLY SOMETHING THAT THEY DO would be to put Obama face to face in having to support or dismiss Bernanke & Geithner...

If every American would send a copy of those paragraphs to their newly elected Congress people... The bar may be shut down before the first drink is poured...; November 4, 2010 at 4:43 PM
McFearless said...: poor people?

how about "working" families that make an average wage?

but yeah....I agree, but hey, the music is playing, shut up and dance, right?; November 4, 2010 at 4:45 PM
Leftback said...: Ben

In New York, poor people pay Alternative Minimum Tax... we are all serfs here relative to the Blankfiends.

This has got to stop. I rarely get angry, but if they create another oil spike here, there is going to be big big trouble.; November 4, 2010 at 4:48 PM
CV said...: Basically - What I'm saying is...

The BEST CHANCE of doing anything right now (by the new House Majority), is to attach Obama squarely to Bernanke...

Link them at the hip...

Then, at EVERY POINT going forward...

Whether we get $100+ oil, food inflation, wall st. bonuses, or whatever...

81% of Americans will know who is responsible for it, who is questioning the sanity of it, and who is SITTING ON THEIR HANDS with regards to it...; November 4, 2010 at 4:49 PM
CV said...: @LB

"if they create another oil spike here, there is going to be big big trouble."

---

But can't you see that there is no way to avoid that (with QE4ever)?

The ones "getting the free money" are completely out of touch with regular folk...

It's just a gambling stipend... So in the end, they'll GAMBLE it in what's hot...

I doubt it's going to be some fuddy duddy 3M, or Honeywell...

That's going to cost the average Joe dearly...

Bernankrupt has not realized, yet, that he is channeling this capital into the worst place it could possibly go...

Commodity speculation...; November 4, 2010 at 4:53 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @LB 4:48

The only way for the FED/Banks to get out of this is to create boom and bust cycles and - of course - have 100plus days of up days on the trading desks in between a down day here and there.; November 4, 2010 at 5:00 PM
CV said...: @LB (& @Bruce for that matter)...

To wit: My comments at the end of (4:53)

The headlines 'could' read TODAY

Market Down Only 1.5% today... (Priced In Gold)

And that's GREAT, because the S&P, today was down (a red candle)...

- 4% (in silver)
- 4% in Palladium
- 3% in Sugar
- 2.7% in coffee
- 1% in soy, wheat, rice, & cotton

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/market-down-only-15-priced-gold

Bruce... You'd better check yourself before you buy dinner... Good thing you were in a TRIPLE ETF (because otherwise you'd have been POORER at the end of the day); November 4, 2010 at 5:01 PM
McFearless said...: "If every American would send a copy of those paragraphs to their newly elected Congress people... The bar may be shut down before the first drink is poured"

We'll see about that, remember when TARP was going, something like 10 of every 11 called to say No, that passed anyway, as if any politician gives a shit about what people tell them after they are elected.; November 4, 2010 at 5:02 PM
CV said...: @McHappy

"The only way for the FED/Banks to get out of this"...

---

Read my lips... THERE IS NO "WAY OUT"; November 4, 2010 at 5:03 PM
CV said...: @mcF (5:02)

Well fine... It's just going to be ME then...

& I'm going to do my own John Stewart interview... Or hell, even go to clowns like Glenn Beck who would LOVE to pour this kind of message out to people...

I don't Rand or Ron Paul would be AGAINST what I'm saying here...; November 4, 2010 at 5:05 PM
McFearless said...: LB,

just think, you or I could likely buy thanksgiving dinner for 100 people at a local city mission for maybe $250. Maybe even less. Dinner for 100 people.

these fuckers are creating trillions and poor people end up using their ovens to stay warm while they cash in their SNAP tickets to get food.

I like when some asshole comes on this site to talk about how angry we all are. Am I angry this shit happens to people? You better effing believe it, and I'll stay angry as long as it continues.; November 4, 2010 at 5:05 PM
Leftback said...: Commodity speculation and emerging markets.

The street people of Calcutta salute you, Ben Bernanke, for providing them with 50% food inflation this year. We Americans also thank you for teaching us that higher oil/gas prices are good for THE ECONOMY.; November 4, 2010 at 5:06 PM
Leftback said...: Ben

Most people can't think their way out of a paper bag, as long as their house price isn't falling, and they can watch American Idol, it's all good.

Sooner or later, the EMs will strike back by hiking rates sharply, scuttling their own markets, and by buying USD. No other way to fight this hot money infusion.; November 4, 2010 at 5:10 PM
CV said...: @McF

"I like when some asshole comes on this site to talk about how angry we all are. Am I angry this shit happens to people? You better effing believe it, and I'll stay angry as long as it continues."

---

So am I... It is SO UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE to me when "so called" social activists like Ritholtz & the bloggers from that other (now defunct) blog chime on about these issues...

Then go on to dally in market prognostications...

Don't any of these IDIOTS see what's going on here? The whole world is just THEORETICAL to them...

No! But CV is the UNABOMBER...; November 4, 2010 at 5:12 PM
CV said...: While they're marveling at their cute little doggy picture icons...

The rest of the world is on the brink of saying...

"I LOVE DOGS... THEY'RE DELICIOUS!"

Happy catfood grandma!; November 4, 2010 at 5:16 PM
Matthew said...: Well, I can tell you this--I would rather miss a big up move than participate in a big downward thrust.

As I mentioned, I took profits on my gold miner last week, missing the additional 25 percent gain it had this week. I am comfortable with that (but admittedly a little annoyed). I took some more stock off the table yesterday only to watch the ensuing madness today.

It's not that I have a particularly bearish outlook for equities in the short term. It's that I like to take profits when I get 20-30 percent gains in a quarter.

I don't give a shit about the taxes. I'd rather take a sure gain and pay taxes than hold on and ride it back down just to secure a 15 percent rate.

I wish I wouldn't have been busy today. I would have cashed out on at least one more of my equity longs.; November 4, 2010 at 5:39 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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