Morning Audibles

You know that feeling that you get sometimes, when a particular event occurs (like 9/11, or the Kennedy assassination)... Or even when the Cubs win the World Series (no wait, strike that, the Cubs never do that)... Or when Obama wins the election (well  - the charm worked on Peggy Jospeh -  but not me)...

Anyway, you KNOW that feeling when it happens... Like, you know you'll ALWAYS remember where you were and what you were doing in that EXACT MOMENT...

To cut to the chase (after that long intro)... I got NOTHING along the lines of those feelings by watching the election returns last night... It wasn't like "Oh my God - Somebody is MAKING HISTORY here"... Instead, it was just a bunch of red squares being filled in in graphical seats where blue ones used to exist...

One thing that IS interesting to me, though... Is that I like to see how people handle DEFEAT... So - ON PURPOSE - I watched the election returns on MSNBC... I just had to see Chris Matthews, Keith Olberman, and Rachel Maddow, sitting together at a desk, & watch their reactions as their new world order representatives were going down in flames... And they trying to calculate, IN REAL TIME, what it might mean for their RATINGS (because that's what's most important after all)... After that, what HORRIBLE things they could begin to SEED AMERICAN minds with now that "hope & changers" (who distanced themselves from Obama policies as much as they could in the run-up) have been replaced with boogeymen...

The bottom line... If you saw what I saw (on that channel anyway)... It seemed to be an almost complete denial of what was occurring... Whenever a "tea partier" went down, they bandwagoned to no end in attempt to deny the thought process (all whisked away by comments like... "Well - the Republican outspent the Democrat 4-1", or, "see America - everyone thinks tea partiers are KOOKS)... Instead, the attempt was clearly to paint the picture that most Americans would rather opt for "the middle" and not those EXTREMISTS...

I've got news for you Rachel, Chris, & Keith... You stand so far off the charts LEFT, that MIDDLE to you is somewhere in the normal realms of left (that's the litmus that you've placed yourselves in)...

I frankly think that Americans can handle a little bit of BOTH (a little left & a little right)... But the last 4 years of Congress saw the country pulled SO FAR LEFT (aided and abetted by the election of Barack Hussein Obama) two years ago, people were basically saying... "Whoops - we went too far"...

Now we get to see what kind of so-called LEADER we really elected in 2008... If people are expecting any IMMEDIATE outcomes, my advice is to not hold your breath... Frankly, I still think there is some UNDOING to be "done" still before any mending might commence (if it ever does)... A lot of it will be up to Obama himself (who, perhaps, finds himself at the White House requisition window asking to trade in his RUBBER STAMP for a VETO PEN)... His "economic dream team" is gone, his chief of staff is gone, there may be (anecdotally), some in-fighting by party members, as to his own job come 2012...

Do Americans care? Apparently so... But I think everyone will find out that they're actually a lot STURDIER than we were all led to believe by these clowns... We don't need messiahs & governance to roll us out of bed... And even if we're a little cranky... We still try to say "Good Morning"!



Ridin' on the City of New Orleans
Illinois Central Monday morning rail
Fifteen cars and fifteen restless riders
Three conductors and twenty-five sacks of mail

All along the southbound odyssey the train pulls out of Kankakee
And rolls along past houses farms and fields
Passing trains that have no name and freightyards full of old black men.
And graveyards full of rusted automobiles

Good morning America how are you? say don't you know me I'm your native son
I'm the train they call the City of New Orleans
And I'll be gone five hundred miles when the day is done

Dealin' cards with the old men in the club car
Penny a point ain't no one keepin' score
Pass the paper bag that holds the bottle
Feel the wheels grumblin' 'neath the floor

And the sons of Pullman porters, and the sons of engineers
Ride their father's magic carpet made of steel
Mothers with their babes asleep, rockin' to the gentle beat
And the rhythm of the rails is all they feel

Good morning America, how are you?

Say don't you know me, I'm your native son
I'm the train they call the City of New Orleans
I'll be gone five-hundred miles when the day is done

Night time on the City of New Orleans
Changin' cars in Memphis, Tennessee
Halfway home, we'll be there by mornin'
Thru the Mississippi darkness rollin' down to the sea

But all the towns and people seem to fade into a bad dream
And the steel rails still ain't heard the news
The conductor sings his songs again
The passengers will please refrain
This train has got the disappearin' railroad blues.

Goodnight America, how are you?

Say don't you know me, I'm your native son
I'm the train they call the City of New Orleans
I'll be gone five-hundred miles when the day is done

SPY 5 minute chart (with AH prints)
as of yesterdays close, it was still TRYING to push higher, but we'll see 

281 comments:

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karen said...

why isn't gold making new highs??

Leftback said...

A few tools got long TLT - the 30y - this morning, on a rumour QE2 was going to be only $300B, so 10s30s would have closed up. They are all being torn apart by wolves right now. Don't look....

Like cash, here, don't like the QE3 trade.

McFearless said...

karen, that was just maybe two weeks ago we talked about $22 on UUP.

the effing gap needs to get closed at 1202....

karen said...

AR @ 3:09.. the real spx number isn't 1200 but the april high 1219.80..

Leftback said...

why isn't gold making new highs??

Because someone somewhere is selling some.....

Helicopter Ben said...

Now what do we do?

karen said...

tradefast

flattening out after a wild ride - trading account is just cash and $GLD -- sold a tiny bit of $EEM from investment account

Leftback said...

I guess we just front-run the POMOs and Treasury auctions as usual in a range trade....

McFearless said...

LB,

how many trading desks just said the exact same thing?

karen said...

okay, i'm making a statement.. if we repeat last april.. and look at weekly spx candles, cuz it IS shaping up identically.. next week is a long read candle, taking us back to 1160.. just sayin' ; )

karen said...

EddyElfenbein

If anyone cares about stocks anymore, Ford just broke out to a 5-year high.

karen said...

for you silver lovers, Bill Murphy: Silver can double in a week, the price is held down with derivatives! |.. http://bit.ly/9QSwcT

karen said...

doesn't it feel like a friday?!
$spx 30 min candle.. looking interesting AR!

McFearless said...

Karen,

3:17, matches GN's count what you just said, and that correction will have a fifth wave failure, it's all part of the count I sent to you over a month ago, the next two weeks determine if it has to get thrown out or not.

As for silver, as AT smartly told me once "be careful with silver, it's a small market and get cornered easily"

bill murphy, if silver can double in a week due to derivatives then it can fall just as fast, because of derivatives, it's still the same tiny silver market.

mcHAPPY said...

Right now is the 'proof' of "Don't fight the FED." and all the other bullshit analysts and MSM spew. What happens in a day or two will give a better indication.

EWI has a great chart of great FED announcements and what follows. Maybe this time will be different.

I hope Bucky wakes up pops a Viagra soon and sprouts some vertical lines from left to right.

AmenRa said...

Karen

I've seen too many evening stars go supernova recently :-)

CV said...

vxx is a sight to see

Leftback said...

LB is going to focus on EURUSD for the time being. Eventually that has to crack. The rest will follow.

For the time being, the indices will lead.

CV said...

In Buddhism...

If VXX hits ZERO... does that mean you reach nirvana or something?

karen said...

crude should go down next week, too, per that bespoke golden cross aftermath chart.. it all fits..

CV said...

@LB

I just think the candles are green on THE ECONOMY...

AmenRa said...

LB

ECB is currently having an emergency conference. At this rate they can kiss any European recovery goodbye.

arbitrage789 said...

Can we please get a correction next week?

karen said...

alaidi

BoJ decision tonight might not need to be aggressive in after Fed went "lite"

karen said...

Now that shock and awe is over..

Hey! I wonder how many calories we burned on that tape?

McFearless said...

If one more client calls me today to reveal

"things should be good now that the republicans took that house, at least that's what people are saying"

then I may just lose it
one more person.

Newt Gingrich said...

McFearless,

With the GOP in charge, the unemployment rate should be below 6% by next month

arbitrage789 said...

Interesting that residents of Washington state chose not to tax the “fat cats”


http://bit.ly/cRJL8T

Leftback said...

I bet we have even lower volume now that we can't trade QE2.
Surely the BUCKY bashing is almost at an end....

karen said...

Ben, no worries!! things should be good now that the republicans took that house, at least that's what people are saying

arbitrage789 said...

At least there will be no more bailouts for California.

CV said...

@McF

I forgot to mention this to you...

I'm pretty much thinking that now that the republican over the house... things should be good...

I'll check with my friends... see what they have to say, and get back to you on that...

McFearless said...

I've lost it
you bastards

CV said...

@DL (3:49)

Looks like Jerry Brown will have to dig into his own pockets to take down all those "Terminator" posters off the wall in the gov's mansion...

But at least I heard he wasn't an ECONOMIC GIRLIE MAN...

McFearless said...

one of them got upset when i said the election was just a side show and what mattered was a few statements at 2;15, he didnt' like it at all

(wilmington trust fan boy, might have something to do with it)

karen said...

oh, DL! so happy you brot that up!! i was following it early on and posting links here.. (but lost it in the throes of.. um.. oh yeah, the FOMC and QE.) anyway, I am thrilled.. so wanted to see gates lose that.. it would have been the beginning of the end.. and I'm glad voters didn't endorse the tall poppy syndrome.. you KNOW how i feel about taxation!!

my dentist must think i'm a coke addict.. i thot i would stop grinding my teeth when i separated from my husband.. unfortunately, no!

karen said...

General Motors starts public offering, pricing common stock at $26 to $29 a share

McFearless said...

and really, today's announcement was a non-announcement wasn't it?

this hardly sounds like a plan set in stone to me:

"The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability."

sounds like the old wet noodle toss

Jerry Brown said...

My first action as governor will be to impose a new tax on day traders who live in Southern California.

karen said...

here is a cute statement: smsearsBarrons

the $1 trillion number was arbitrary anyway. market likes big bold whole numbers and $600 billion is kinda like $2.98.

karen said...

zerohedge, GM Files 500 Page Paperweight-cum-Prospectus, Hopes To Sell $10 Billion In Stock To Hapless Lemmings http://bit.ly/9quvVE


BergenCapital, @zerohedge Coincidently 60-minutes after the announcement of QE2

McFearless said...

it's funny to see people like Dead Hobo claim they are now getting in the market because QE2 is a promise until 2011, really funny.

CV said...

To me...

$600 billion is like... $600 billion more than KEEP YOUR MITTS OUT OF THINGS...

But that's just me...

Gotta roll...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

What does Bill Murray know about silver?

karen said...

Jerry B.. have at the day traders.. i'm pulling my millions out of the market.. opening a gold money account, waiting till my house is worth $10 million again, selling it, and traveling the world.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Will this temper our Tepper?
Will we have Tepperware parties?
Will we see Salt and Tepper shakers?
Will QE go on forever?

karen said...

Okay, CV, let's meet up again tonight! XX

Washington State Residents said...

DL (3:45) - There was a provision in the bill that stated after 2 years the income tax "could" be placed on lower incomes.

Wa St, already has a sales tax, property tax and one of the highest gas taxes, all we need to do now is have an income tax.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

Bruce.. that just sent me into fits!!!

McFearless said...

who said it was $600 billion, certainly not the Fed, what they said was that was the first number but they'd reassess as they went along, I pretty much promise it ends up being something else.

karen said...

Mutt, are in in WA? I am so confused..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

Careful, Lefty is watching...the mere mention of fits could set him off.....

karen said...

Is this the SCARIEST headline EVER?! (or what?!)

U.S. stocks close with gains after Fed move on bond buys; Dow highest since September 2008

Yes said...

Karen - Yes, I am a Washington State recident.

But I am normally in a state of confusion too...

Mutt

Leftback said...

Karen is in fits of ecstasy whenever LB posts....

Leftback said...

Much ado about nothing, today, because the FOMC "leak" machine worked fairly well, to the extent that LB was able to nail the $600B number on the nose. Where, oh where, do we go from here, and how long can the ECB continue to ignore the action in peripheral European bonds?

karen said...

LB, the best thing you could ever do is keep that avatar.. cuz you are growing on me!

Mutt, whom do I have you confused with.. shoot, this is driving me crazy. At one time, i was thinking of moving to WA, btw.. to one of those plots surrounded by water, of course. : )

Leftback said...

Mutt

Are you recident or just reticent?

Leftback said...

Karen,

:-)

McFearless said...

dear lord
just got this email

I can only stomach posting the first para:


Subject: What now?
"Ben, I’m thinking the election results are a step in the right direction for us, but I know we have a long road ahead of us. If I understand it, the Feds announcement today just increased the deficit by $600B. No telling if Congress will get anything of significance done in the next 2 years. But I do have a glimmer of hope that the Bush tax cuts will be extended in some form that helps XXX and I."

karen said...

LB, if you truly were as smart as you think you are, you would be in my breast pocket, and you aren't : P

my mother gave me that analogy recently.. she said, karen, i've learned; some people you keep in your breast pocket, and others in your back pocket. it is a TRUST issue.

McFearless said...

Karen,

Harry Wanger was from WA, as I recall. Were you a fan of the wangman?

mcHAPPY said...

What is the difference between this QE announcement and the last one?

SPX 670 range compared to 1200
oil $84 versus $35
Gold $1350 versus $740
DXY 78 versus 76.50

That should start the list going... any others?
I'm just too lazy today.

Leftback said...

Karen,

LB would certainly LIKE to be in your breast pocket. Although your back pocket undoubtedly has its attractions too....

karen said...

Ben, you and my buddy at MS would hit it off !!!! I you ever come to so cal, I have to host a dinner.

karen said...

If HW and LB are one in the same, I think you know the answer, ben..

Leftback said...

What is the difference between this QE announcement and the last one?

The first larger version of QE one was priced in to bonds relatively quickly and then into stocks and commodities more slowly, but Mr Market has already bought this smaller one hook, line and sinker.

mcHAPPY said...

EUR/USD 1.24 versus 1.41

mcHAPPY said...

I cannot wait to see what happens next. Most likely a head fake down to 1130-1160 (very wide range I know) just to get the bears all riled up and then new 'recovery' highs. Just have to close that gap first.

Leftback said...

Let's see the FX and commodity directions first. Seems like they are not quite done, maybe we will get CADUSD parity again before we reverse. Got to keep our cousins in the Frozen North happy, eh?

FWIW, LB doesn't think there is much being left on the table in the emerging markups and metals/materials carry trade.

McFearless said...

Karen,

ha, no way is LB HW, no way, if he is, I'm quitting blogging because I just have no clue what's going on.

one day I'll make it out there and we'll get some frou frou's.

McFearless said...

LB,

4:24, I think that's about as perfect a description as one could give, imo, of course.

karen said...

hook, line, and sinker; i can go there..

okay, gotta run! back tonight.. XX

karen said...

one more post since talk is cheap, money is nothing, and chicks are free:

BreakingNews

U.S. awards $1 billion worth of small grants to some 3,000 biotech companies - Reuters

Leftback said...

The QE2 Bond Report 11.3.10

LB will not pretend to explain everything that happened today in Bond Land, but the gist of it is this. A rumour was floated this morning, by the LIES MAN himself on CNBC, that QE2 might be only $300B. This reduced inflation expectations and triggered buying of 10s b/c 10s30s is a measure of inflation expectations and it is at record wides. When the FOMC statement came along with $600B these trades had to be reversed, and the long end was sold and IG corporates went with it. Meanwhile, the general risk-on trade was reflected in HY being bid.

Corpies: LQD -0.33%; AGG -0.02%; JNK 0.47%; HYG 0.33%;
Govies: TLT -2.04%; IEI 0.28%; TIP -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 3.93%

LB is glad he didn't trade this. From here we would be happy to fade rallies in TLT, and we expect the primary drivers of the US bond market to be POMOs and auctions. Study up, kids, and you too can pick up a few pennies ahead of oncoming steamrollers. Be aware that problems in Europe can flare up at any time and would lead to demand for Bunds and USTs, in a "flight to quantity".

karen said...

if you need me AH, just sext..

Wa State said...

Leftback - I iz a recident always have been...well not ALWAYS but close to always.

Ben - Yes HW said he was from WA, I do not remember where it was (TBP, Andy's old site or here) but I was able to discuss enuff with him to not fully believe he was being entirely honest. One of the tip offs was that he called the mountains over here "The Cascades"

Anyway, Harry was a cool dude...

Karen there is a huge difference between Western and Easten Washington. Western is more liberal with more economic prospects, they have beaches, but nothing like you are use to especially in the winter.

Eastern, tends to be much more concertative and economics tend to be more farm based and you always know what season you are in.

I think you would like it up here especially in the summer, but from the little I know of you I think you would like the west side more.

Anyway that is probably WAY more then you ever wanted to know.

Mangy Mutt

Leftback said...

Karen,

PB = Peter Boockvar ???

mcHAPPY said...

"Got to keep our cousins in the Frozen North happy, eh?"

Nothing makes Canadians giddier than parity or above on the USD.

mcHAPPY said...

Unfortunately, these days, I am not one of them.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I would trade you some of your clients for one or two of mine. That client would be embraced on certain days in the salt mine...

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