Morning Audibles

Just in case you were wondering... The Elections & QE2 explained (by Charles Schultz)...

Obama: "I got Harry Reid his seat back!"

Rush Limbaugh & Glen Beck: "I got a majority in the House!"

J6P: "I got a ROCK"!

On QE2

Goldman Sachs: "I got a trillion to play with and pay bonuses!"

JPM: "I got a trillion to play with and pay bonuses!"

Every Hooker & Coke Dealer in Manhattan & on K Street: "I got a fresh new client base!"

J6P: "I got a rock!"

 
 
2008/Stimulus Package
"Let's sit here in the pumpkin patch... & you'll see the GREAT PUMPKIN with your own eyes!"
QE2
(2:30)... "Good Grief... I said IF!... I meant 'when' he comes!"
 

349 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 349 of 349   Newer›   Newest»
karen said...

It is the scariest market ever, imo..

karen said...

and it is getting close to closing time..

Leftback said...

No. Not the scariest. But the grindiest...

We could be grinding for years, Karen, which might not be all bad.... :-)

Did you ever have any wardrobe adjustments? LB imagines you having a little fashion show in the mornings, while your lawn is being mowed. LB would live to help around the house, BTW.

karen said...

great chart here.. http://pragcap.com/gdp

but what accounts for increase in personal consumption? is gasoline in that number? i wish personal consumption including mortgage payments.. LOL

karen said...

How the palm of my hand would "live" to meet your face!!! LOL

Mandy Drury said...

Liss commints about moi brusts and troy to sty focissed, fellas.

Scary Market said...

Karen(1:50) - Much agreement, it seems like TPTB did nothing to help actual growth or offer America a real recovery.

It seems like they thought that by bailing out the banks, offering QE4Ever and proping up the Stock Market that some how things will turn around and be all rosie.

I do not know if this is the begining of the end and we get the real (And very painful)correction that we need to go through, but I do believe that once (If) things start to break down, it will be a quick trip to the bottom.

Stay sharp and best of luck to you on your trades.

Mangy Mutt

Leftback said...

Ouch. Poor LB. A gentlemanly offer rebuffed.

karen said...

gotta luv Trader Mark!

If you closed your eyes and just looked at statistical data Monday should be a monster day. Not only is it a Monday which (without having the data in front of me) I'd guess accounted for anywhere from 60-70% of the gains from the March 2009 lows, but the first day of the month has been a wicked good day for the market for well over a decade

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/based-on-recent-trends-alone-monday.html

Leftback said...

This market cannot tank with Treasuries at these yields. A correction, even a 5-7% dip, is possible, but then it will bounce right back. Ts have to get crushed before anything substantial can happen to equities.

karen said...

LB, I agree with you.. not to scare you or anything : )

karen said...

and I think a QE announcement could have the effect of a dollar-T bond dump extraordinaire..

arbitrage789 said...

Quite a few comments, considering that the S&P has been largely confined to a 3 point range today.

karen said...

if you can believe, Cs volume is even lighter than yesterday.. 129M.. and the ten min chart is not for human eyes..

karen said...

DL, did you bother reading the comments?? all sex, drugs, rock n roll.. with some potty humour mixed in. no market talk at all.. as there is no market.. LOL..

karen said...

uh-oh! HousingWire

MBS trade settlement failures hit record http://goo.gl/fb/PSyCI

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

Only read a few of the comments towards the end.

karen said...

Fascinating: Convertbond

One Trick Pony? According to the World Bank, commodities account for 52% of Latin America's exports

arbitrage789 said...

One thing I've wondered about is what sort of election result would surprise the markets, either positively or negatively.

One interesting scenario, I suppose, would be if the R's won 8 seats in the Senate, but with Washington state and Alaska undecided for several days.

arbitrage789 said...

K @ 2:19

But that pony can gallop.

karen said...

DL, you are quite serious today.. and how is your enthusiasm? probably not so high, let alone wild, smiling.. the market has me punch drunk.. been drinking the koolaid!

Matthew said...

I wonder if Barry RitzCracker will turn bearish after the Republicans take the house.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

I'm at home today, which means all my comments will get posted. When I'm at my workplace, most of my attempts to comment result in an error message.

My enthusiasm? About "baseline".

arbitrage789 said...

Matthew,

I don't understand why that guy claims to be a registered Republican.

arbitrage789 said...

Given the recent increase in the retirement age, I wonder how the French people would respond NOW, if Greece or Ireland were to come around asking for another bailout.

karen said...

RitzCracker it is from now on!

DL, lucky us! what took you so long.. oh, i know, you were waiting for happy hour.

arbitrage789 said...

I'm actually long the market, and I plan to stay in until at least Tuesday evening (and probably a couple of days after that).

karen said...

andy.. quick! i just read:

MANDY on cnbc full angle shot

karen said...

NEW, NEW, NEW low in YCS today..

karen said...

not a NEW high in FXY, tho..

arbitrage789 said...

Yeah, Amanda Drury is on with Cramer.. She doesn't look very happy to be there.

OTOH, I don't get the sense that Erin Burnett minds him so much.


http://cnbcsucks.wordpress.com/2009/08/04/amanda-drury-has-a-rack-but-eva-amurri-has-an-even-bigger-rack/

Matthew said...

My father, a true-blue Democrat, is a registered Republican. The reason is that in Ohio, you can't vote a party ballot in the primary unless you register as that party (if I understand it correctly). My guess is that he is trying to get a Republican he agrees with most in an election with a Democrat. I assume that, given his leanings, this minimizes his risk if it works out.

Perhaps RitzCracker does the same thing in New York?

Matthew said...

I get the sense that Cramer just interrupts women because he doesn't care what they have to say. I also get the feeling that he snorts 5 grams of cocaine before going on air.

arbitrage789 said...

Matthew @ 2:46,

I don't know. RitzCracker agrees with Pelosi on just about everything. Which is O.K., I suppose, but he ought to just register as a Democrat (or a Socialist).

arbitrage789 said...

5 g of coke before going on air.

..............

Isn't that what Billy Mays used to do?

mcHAPPY said...

http://market-ticker.org/

Some great information from Karl Denninger today:

1) Lets talk about a bank holiday.

2) Land titles are FOOKED - in their own words.

3) Oh, you thought we'd forget the felonies? Nope.

Matthew said...

I think that he should register his head as a hot air balloon.

*sticks tongue out and blows*

OK, back to 27 years old again.

ben22 said...

exas getting pounded today, the AH pretty much carried over, funny, one of the tools tat regularly posts at Yelnick called it the stock of the year the other day.

Wilmington Trust, couldn't hold it's tiny green earlier....another very natural looking chart right....

McFearless said...

no doubt several prominent market pundits will use the elections as an after the fact rationalization of any market movements that go against their forecasts.

karen said...

lol at zerohedge

Stupid robots cant understand they are supposed to crash the market to give a sense of gravity to this latest false flag..

AR mentioned gravity this morning.. i suppose there are signs to believe it exists..

Ben, I commented to you yesterday about EXAS.. i forgot to follow thru this morning..

Leftback said...

DL said: "I'm actually long the market, and I plan to stay in until at least Tuesday evening"

LB is long, and plans to stay long throughout (especially for Karen). But will reduce risk substantially ahead of Tuesday, perhaps as early as today for some of the riskiest positions. (EEM looks tired).

karen said...

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/10/uae-flight-201-being-escorted-to-jfk-by.html

arbitrage789 said...

I heard one analyst say that if the Republicans do "BTE", the oil drilling, nat gas, and coal companies will rally in the wake of the election results.

karen said...

Ben, did you ever look at the ten min C chart over the last 3 days? vol only 145M for the day.

karen said...

financialtimes

Trichet warns on bail-out system dangers: The ECB chief has told European leaders that a system they are designing... http://bit.ly/ajlHOH

Anonymous said...

Long to be long

Leftback said...

I heard one analyst say that if the Republicans do "BTE"

First major move we would see is a bucky bounce and commodity sell off, it is an absolute lock. After that, QE to infinity resumes.

McFearless said...

Karen,

yeah, I think when you mentioned it, it was down 23%, it bounced a lot AH, couldn't ever get its footing today.

that said, I hope the company does well, they are working on cancer treatments.

McFearless said...

Leftback,

ok, I question that pundit....there's nothing rational about thinking that republicans are the "strong dollar" party.....no way jose.

AmenRa said...

...the number that shall not be named

McFearless said...

karen,

I did pull up the C chart, but my eyes started to burn right away, and I had to look away really quick.

Jennifer said...

Wow...I see I missed a fascinating day in the markets...If you need someone to do compliance for the island based hedge fund I can get caught up on my continuing legal ed credits...don't let the fact that I stopped practicing law before Sarbox was passed deter you from considering me!!! :-)

Leftback said...

20% portfolio is equity index longs here.
10% dividends.
12% is high yield bonds. 0% Treasuries.
Also have a 4% EEM and a 5% EDC position going.
It's time to cut back risk a bit.

My favorite post FOMC trade - FADE any rally in long bonds/gold.

arbitrage789 said...

Republicans/strong dollar...


It's worth considering the British Pound and the government bond rates in the U.K. since the election there.

Leftback said...

McF it is all about "perception" in this case. The GOP might say austere stuff but of course they won't do much.

Leftback said...

Very interesting to see how much of the Austerity budget the Tories actually go ahead with.

McFearless said...

an island based hedge fund will be cool but some other guy already came up with a pirate theme hedge fund (seriously) and I'm not sure how cool an island hedgie is if it's not a pirate theme

rrrrrrrrrr

Leftback said...

Jen

You can have all the Compliance Officers you want. Someone has to keep my traders in line.

McFearless said...

little hard for me to get on board with the idea that republicans are going to seriously talk about any kind of austerity when two of their primary arguments are

1. lowering taxes
2. supporting our military

McFearless said...

but I suppose people might perceive them to be doing so for a day or two.

karen said...

http://www.decanter.com/news/wine-news/504771/lafite-2008-price-rises-20-following-chinese-symbol-announcement

Leftback said...

LB was thinking more like Gilligan's Hedge Fund. We would probably avoid too much public swashbuckling.

McFearless said...

@Jennifer,

Sarbox....nobody cares about that crap, right?......lol.

McFearless said...

well not much time left.....we going to break the Friday streak?

Jennifer said...

Well, there don't seem to be a lot of enforcement actions!

McFearless said...

still watching this pretty close, way too hard counting waves right now and using them to trade:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s176705681]&disp=P

cv said...

@McHappy

See look...! I haven't been around for AT LEAST an hour and a half...

No sight of CV at all! Wasn't even at the computer...

And what do we have?

We have a new name for Ritzy... and links to Mandy Drury's breasts...

It's THE MARKETS dude... Making everyone punch drunk... karen had it correct... :-)

Just all waiting for bens "new moon" next week... Can't wait!

AmenRa said...

Looks to me like all they're trying to do is avoid a down week. Geezus.

cv said...

I did catch Santelli though while I was away...

He was talking about how Dollar/Yen was ticking around it's historic low back to 1995...

McFearless said...

there will be no "new moon" avatar if any of you were getting any goofy ideas

though, I'm planning on doing a pic with my PSU snuggie this weekend for next weeks picture show.

McFearless said...

eh, I'm flat, done for the week, that wasn't a very good trade, nothing really to show for it.

I'd think we'll be up early next week but I'm not going long into the weekend.

Jennifer said...

CV -- which is why the last "guest" was advocating the double long yen etf YCS.

McFearless said...

aapl down every day this week.....do they know who steve jobs is?

do they!?!

karen said...

just realized SLV made new high..

cv said...

@LB/ben

"McF it is all about "perception" in this case. The GOP might say austere stuff but of course they won't do much."

correct...

That's just a bunch of blather because Kudlow talks about all the time... He's another GOP hack...

KD pretty much nailed it with this post (which has some cool graphs)...

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=170647

McFearless said...

anyone else find it just a little strange all this plane stuff happening right before the elections, it's odd to me.

now they are playing videos of this plane landing at JFK but making note there is no known threat associated with the plane.....

Leftback said...

Equity exposure cut from 35% to about 25% today.
The 5% EDC is going, half my EEM and a bit of my SPY are going too.

No sense in getting greedy, it's been a good run.
To these eyes, next week has PROFIT TAKING written all over it.
Not sure that they will wait for Wednesday to begin.
Never hurts to have some cash on hand.

cv said...

@McF

PSU is going to get crushed by Michigan this weekend...

But look people... I got some footage of ben coming out of his trailer for the PENN STATE WHITE OUT...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wMH-PfPJsI

McFearless said...

CV,
my contention, as always, revolves around identifying causation.

cv said...

@McF

"anyone else find it just a little strange all this plane stuff happening right before the elections"

By tonight, Rachel Maddow & Keith Olberman will be informing everybody that Karl Rove is behind it all...

McFearless said...

I know man, I think it could get really ugly, I'm pretty sure this weekend is homecoming too

McFearless said...

Karl rove was pretty critical of Palin the other day. he's a very calculated person.

cv said...

@Amen

tiny waves lapping up along the shoreline of the number that shall not be named...

Leftback said...

Sometimes the best sell day is a quiet end of month session, or after an enormous squeeze..... not a lot of buyers left here.

karen said...

Ben, I was thinking this was a typical Bush stunt.. but what I suspect happened is that there was a "tip" about a package from Yemen.. all planes will Yemen packages have been searched.. and all pkg shipments out of Yemen have been halted...

you have to think, tho, that they wouldn't have let that plane land at JFK if they really thot there was a bomb that could be detonated..

so maybe they are investing the receiving addresses on these packages as well..

Leftback said...

I can't comment on the security stunts for fear of black helicopters.

karen said...

Ben, I will try to google what KR said of Palin.. didn't he advice McCain to take her on, tho??

Lord Blankfiend said...

We might mess with this market on Monday for fun.

You know, THE FUN!

Everyone's Ex-Girlfriend said...

I kno, right? (nose scrunchie)

cv said...

@karen (3:36)

SLV... Ahem!

SPRMWIWABI2BSCTPS

(somebody please remind me why it was a bad idea 2 buy silver coins this past summer) - lol

cv said...

@McF

To help you get your Frou Frou Friday kick started on the drive home...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV2XphGofCE&feature=related

cv said...

@Amen

3:45 candle... DENIED!

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-taylor-november-will-see-flash-point-begins-markets-reversal

After the Republican victory things will change. The Fed will be hamstrung, as Ron Paul, a conservative standard-bearer and harsh critic of the Fed, will head the sub-committee overseeing its actions. Liquidity expansion or new programs will probably drop sharply under his watch. Paul would argue that the Fed’s unfettered ability to “debase” the currency is about to come to an end.

karen said...

MW dressed as Paris Hilton!!

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/trick-or-treat-on-the-street/

karen said...

gtotoy

IF the $SPX settles above 1183.08 it will be the highest weekly close since April 30

AmenRa said...

CV

TNTCNBN gets a reprieve. The market was gunning for it. That rejection sent the ball back to the other end of the court.

McFearless said...

karen,

I'm not sure if he advised McCain of that or not, what I read just this morning was this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20101028/el_yblog_upshot/rove-palin-lacks-the-gravitas-to-be-president

cv said...

@karen (3:57)

That's hot!

red october said...

friday closes red by 0.16!

cv said...

@Amen

No Stairway!

McFearless said...

boy, I forgot how "awesome" cnbc was during the day

McFearless said...

well, it's not by much, but the streak broken on S&P.

McFearless said...

well squad, next week is going to be wild no matter what

so we've all got that going for us

Leftback said...

LB derisked from 47% to 25% equity exposure. That was a lot of risk back there. Feels good to have taken some profits in here. Made about 3.5% on a swing in EDC and about 9% on a much longer trip in EEM.

Very confident there will be buying opportunities out there ahead of us. I would like to spend next week waiting but not worrying. Hate FOMC mtg arb more than almost anything else.

cv said...

@Amen

I might have to put some JAPANESE BREAKBEATS on the wheels of steel over the weekend to celebrate...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2e_t7RehZA&p=ACCB15CBD5688D1B&playnext=1&index=27

karen said...

Food for thot: Microscopic Microeconomics

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/magazine/31FOB-idealab-t.html?_r=1

AmenRa said...

With the SPX closing just a few cents higher for the week means the weekly reversal is that much closer (less than $20). Hee hee. I wonder if they meant to do that.

72bat said...

Central Bank Meeting Festival Next Week
"Along with the mid-term elections in the U.S., the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet. It’s a centralbankapalooza."

so what else is on next week's economic calendar?

Jennifer said...

Happy halloween everyone! Watch out for creepy nuns :-)

http://www.easleys.com/nunforyoumask.aspx

cv said...

@Amen (4:08)

I was thinking that same thing...

over 4/30 close...

Move those bars up a notch, thank you...

Getting scrunchy in there...

AmenRa said...

CV

But I'm getting a kick of how they spent the WHOLE week at the monthly reversal and failed to take it out.

cv said...

@Jennifer

I've had my fill with CREEPS this week, but I'll look out for those too...

I hope your kiddos have fun this weekend...

cv said...

@Amen (4:12)

You said it...

Even MORE interesting is they managed to FILL the 5/3-5/4 SPY gap in the process...

How ya like THEM apples...?

McFearless said...

it's so funny watching this show....bullish pundit after bullish pundit, then roubini, then more bullish pundits

they all say the exact same thing

this industry should be cut in half

McFearless said...

ahhhh!

that is a scary nun mask

I'm hiding in my snuggie

cv said...

Did you all know that "THE MASK" (worn by Jason from the original movie Halloween)...

was actually a Captain Kirk (from Star Trek) William Shatner mask?

They just slapped it on, stretched it out a little and added a few minor touches...

CV is a wealth of useful knowledge...

McFearless said...

is anyone watching this garbage

"you can go short the dollar"

"you don't think that's too crowded?"

"I'm not a commodity or currency guy, I'm in stocks"


bwahahahahahaha, yes, same guy on first and third statement

karen said...

Nun for you! Loved it! thanks, Jennifer

McFearless said...

"you gotta be in stocks" seems the phrase o' the day

no wonder AAII is so high

McFearless said...

omg

"this airplane thing could have killed the market 6 months ago, buy the dips and stick with it!"

exongenous cause kings, find them on CNBC, easily disproved, yet considered the "best and brightest"

GIB baby

karen said...

Oh get this! BreakingNews

Search of Flight 201 shows no cargo from Yemen - Reuters

(so much for my last posted theory!!)

AmenRa said...

TNTCNBN lives on for another month.

Leftback said...

A bit too bullish out there isn't it?

Ben, go and get long frou-frou drinks.
LB will be happy to sit and look at his Trading Wonga next week.

CV, the blog has been the Dog's Bollocks lately.

karen said...

New Rare Earth ETF: http://247wallst.com/2010/10/28/rare-earth-etf-shows-global-theme-remx-tie-tc-rti-mcp-gmo-ree/

ETFs for investing in BUBBLES !!!

http://247wallst.com/2010/10/27/investing-in-bubbles-etfs-for-quantitative-easing-and-qe2-gld-dgp-fxf-cyb-cny-uup-tlt-tbt-spy-dia-qqqq-fas-faz/

mcHAPPY said...

Karen,

You made my weekend. The John Taylor bit on Ron Paul was great. It does a great job of supporting the technical side that is looking for a big bounce in bucky. Fundamentally it is just nice to see some common sense out there. The only bigger disappoint than Obama would be if Paul also stayed status quo.

cv said...

@McF

Hey there's some SOCIOECONOMICS going on for you...

Amen & I are talking about the S&P having "NONE" of it upon reaching the monthly 3lb reversal & not breaching it to close out the month...

and Jennifer is talking about SCARY NUNS...

SCARY NONE'S

McFearless said...

damn,.....I forgot about the wonga

karen said...

OH MY!! and now we have the GLITTER ETF!! GLTR

GLTR will effectively act as a mix of ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSE: SGOL), ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: PPLT), and ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: PALL). The ETF holds actual bullion rather than just acting as an ETF of ETFs.

http://247wallst.com/2010/10/22/etf-launch-precious-metals-all-mixed-together-gltr-sgol-pplt-pall/

McFearless said...

"the ETF holds actual bullion"

these aren't going to end well, why not just buy the bullion, seriously.

cv said...

@karen

Why doesn't the investment world just cut to the chase and create an etf "IN" bubbles...

Don Ho will underwrite the ETF...

karen said...

Ben, you can buy the ETFs on margin!! You don't have to have upfront $$$.. LOL.. Well, they say the gold run won't be over until their are miners in the indices.. AA is in the Dow, after all..

cv said...

@McF (4:29)

I kno right?

I think I'm going start an ETF for all the food & supplies I have stored in my basement...

You can all buy shares in it...

You can mail your checks to...

karen said...

MFM and some other basics:

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/29/trading-concepts-101/

McFearless said...

Karen, CV

ok, margin, good point. the whole ETF thing is getting a bit wild, you even have PIMCO getting in on it. I certainly can't keep up with all the new one's being opened at this point.

Obama just said on CNBC there were "explosive devices" found in some of the packages, addressed to jewish places of worship in Chicago.

Don't Make A habit said...

Jennifer - Don't make a habit out of wearing the nun stuff.

Mangy Mutt

cv said...

@LB

"CV, the blog has been the Dog's Bollocks lately."

I'm not up on my Liverpool slang, so I don't know if that is good or bad...

But basically it doesn't matter because it's not going to get much better (or worse) than it already is...

Whatever Gets You Through The Night
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5ijw1PUsXg&ob=av2e

karen said...

I meant 'there are miners.."

http://pragcap.com/richard-koo-ponzi-finance-failed

This gets to the real crux of this sort of government intervention in markets. It does not make people more productive, it does not create jobs, it does not increase output and it does not increase future cash flows. The Fed and BOJ hope to spark an investment and hiring boom. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that this sort of intervention can lower rates, increase borrowing or increase sustained economic activity. The conclusions should be obvious to everyone. A shuffling around of Fed assets does not alter private sector net financial assets. It might alter perceptions in the near-term, but hoping for a sustained recovery generated by the Fed’s balance sheet is sheer fantasy. Herding investors into risk assets that do not show the underlying fundamental improvement to sustain higher prices is nothing more than Ponzi finance. Or what Brian Sack prefers to call ” United States monetary policy”.

karen said...

thanks all.. late for the beach.. hope to check in tonight : )

More British Slang said...

Leftback - Speaking of British Slang, a buddy of mine a work said that "Getting Knocked Up" in Britan meant getting a phone call.

Is there any truth to that?

Mangy Mutt

Jennifer said...

The nun suit isn't for me! Glitter -- good grief. I'd rather buy future interests in CV's food stash -- then I might actually get a fish and not a piece of paper. Who audits the Tilapia?

cv said...

@karen

That's an excellent way to describe it...

It's like... What the Fed doesn't realize yet is that all the partyers are drunk and passed out on the floor (or have gone home)...

But Bernanke & this Administration are standing there like Will Ferrell and yelling...

"I kno... Let's all go STREAKING through the quad... Come on everybody!"

Leftback said...

The QE2 Bond Report 10.29.10

Fixed income punters snapped up all forms of US corporate and government paper today, including photocopies of Bernanke's arse, as anticipation mounted that the Fed would buy all paper in the country including old copies of National Geographic.

Corpies: LQD 0.20%; AGG 0.21%; JNK 0.19%; HYG 0.04%;
Govies: TLT 0.94%; IEI 0.27%; TIP 0.33%
Hedgies: TBT -1.85%

We are on the sidelines here, exceot for our high yield.

I-Man said...

Lay off my Mandy...

She's spoken for.

Andy T said...

"CV, the blog has been the Dog's Bollocks lately."

I think that means "good."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I think all we need here now is some good dissent....

So, CV, go fuck yourself.

McFearless said...

Andy,

you really thought the Bianco post was good? Don't you find it odd they left off of the "analysis" all the down pomo's in August starting the study directly at the date would paint POMO's impact in the greatest light?

McFearless said...

the numbers would still look good, but less so

there is no doubt though the POMO trading strategy has gone mainstream at this point

Andy T said...

McFear: I actually hadn't conducted the analysis on my own and had not seen such analysis before. Therefore, I thought it was a good post. The sample size, beginning only in late Aug, is obviously small. And, it's only a matter of time before traders/investors begin to "anticipate" such POMOs and bid the market the day before. The fact is this is a pretty "odd" coincidence....

Remember those Crude Thursdays? It was really bizarre. I started chatting with some energy traders about that phenomenon. They, in turn, went to their quant desks to ask about the phenomenon. We blogged about it. It only worked for a few more weeks before it was "anticipated" by the marginal buyers/sellers....

I suspect the same thing will occur with these Permanent Open Market Operations--the traders will begin to "believe it" and then it won't happen any more.


From a technical perspective, I suppose this phenomenon is one of the reasons we're seeing less "impulsive" moves and a lot more corrective-type waves. i.e. what "newgirlinboston" is referencing and what I've been talking about in a lot of my S&P updates.

Andy T said...

Also, I need to give TBP a few kudos once in a while, for good posts, lest I be accused of being a "troll" or an "asshole" or a "jerk of the highest order."

Heh, heh.

McFearless said...

Andy/Bully,

I'll just continue to count how many people at Dan's site use it. :-)

I sort of miss Crude Thursdays

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