AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: No one said I was going to make it easy for you.

Hanging man day (after a shooting star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still holding 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). New high (by .02) on daily 3LB (reversal is 1178.10). QE2infinity.

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed the 76.4% retrace at 76.29. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).

Bearish short day (but closed higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.71). Ejected from the "no fear" zone.

Doji day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB (reversal is 1370.50).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4049).

Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.42).

Bullish long day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Held the weekly 3LB mid (25.35) and now above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.96).

Spinning top day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4749.38).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 292.98).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below its 38.2% retrace and lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 103.05). Falling/declining wedge is being broken to the downside.


The QE2 Bond Report 10.26.10

As we continue to await the arrival of Her Majesty, the bond market is showing signs of weakness, with dandruff appearing in the LQD and TLT charts and even AGG showing slippage. Once again, it was "risk on" Charlie, as LB's beloved JNK and HYG forged ahead once more. Of note, the B/Ds front-ran the POMO yesterday but even the FED buying 10s and 30s couldn't stem the dash for the lifeboats. That, my friends, is bearish action for the long end.

Corpies: LQD -0.53%; AGG -0.23%; JNK 0.25%; HYG 0.16%;
Govies: TLT -1.54%; IEI -0.36%; TIP -0.54%
Hedgies: TBT 3.04%

We did nothing in fixed income. We HEART our HY plays, and we picked up a small amount of a high dividend stock. Looking ahead, we suspect that durables might be WARM, leading to a bit more selling of Ts in the morning, after which yields might be attractive enough for a few nibbles once we see an anemic NEW HOME SALES number, and that will set off some weak dollar action again, we think...

Anyway, the last few days, the smart trade has been NO TRADE.


I-Man said...

Cant wait until next week...
In fact, maybe I'll just take the rest of this week off and practice my ninja skills.

Andy T said...

I-Man, looking forward to next week as well.

I'm sort of just looking forward to a day that I'm not referred to as a "dick," or a "bully", or an "asshole," or a "hypocrite."

A 24 hour period where I'm not called a name of some kind would be SWEET.

Another choppy day in the S&P Land--there is nothing conclusive about that price action. It's all been "corrective" in nature.

Neely been talking about how a major top may be forming in Gold here. Difficult to dispute that idea.


Andy T said...

I don't think I want to be the head coach of LaTech tonight in Boise, ID.

The Broncos have every incentive to light up that scoreboard over and over and over again.

National Champions said...

Andy, I agree with you on the Boise State game, I hope it is a good one, but it will probably be a blow out.

They play Hawaii (I think) next week, that should be a good game too.

It would be nice to see Boise State get to Number 1, but that will be an up hill battle.

Mangy Mutt

I-Man said...

I hear ya man, I'm really h*ping that this cycle shit works out this time, and that nov 2-6 is the turning point.

I've already got my ES downside targets and a rough date in place for the low, now all I need is a damn high!

(Not that kind of high, already sporting that...)

Have to ask said...

Andy – My man, your skills at TA are without equal and some day I hope to be half as good as you, but I have to ask, if you say - you; “looking forward to a day that I'm not referred to as a "dick," or a "bully", or an "asshole," or a "hypocrite.” Why set yourself up for it?

And I do have to admit, I thought asking for a non-sense, unenforceable deal was quit humorous though.

Mangy Mutt

Anonymous said...

Mangy Mutt.

Glad to see you commenting here. Echoing some earlier words, I like your commentary. It's a different perspective and the additional "texture" is appreciated.

Please send me a test e-mail:

I would like to send you some stuff in a little while. It might help explain some things. -AT

Be a couple Hours said...

Will do but it will be a couple hours before I can email you.


AmenRa said...

1-1-8-6-6-9 has thrown down the gauntlet (three more days left to fight). The fact that the SPX closed just two cents higher makes the daily 3LB reversal (1178.10) that much closer.

ben22 said...

said the same thing this afternoon AT, all I see is correction everywhere which is *great.

ben22 said...

some of you that have been around longer than me, when was the last time you heard someone on the Fed saying something like this:

Kansas City Fed Bank President Thomas Hoenig said quantitative easing is a “dangerous gamble” that risks higher costs in the economy and another financial crisis. John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC hedge fund, called Fed purchases a “bazooka.”

Fed policy makers, who have already cut interest rates almost to zero and bought $1.7 trillion of securities, are discussing more purchases of Treasuries to flood markets with cheap money.

“From my perspective, it is a very dangerous gamble,” Hoenig said in a speech in Lawrence, Kansas. “We risk the next crisis four or five years from now. Central bankers need to think of the long term.” Hoenig has dissented from every Fed policy decision this year.


And, he IS A PHD!

cv said...


That is the most interesting thing to me right now...

Is anybody interested in LeBron's debut game with the heat tonight...

Heat vs. Celtics?

ben22 said...

oh yeah, I'm into it.

ben22 said...

9 whole points from the heat in the first quarter.


also, the "what should I do" Lebron commercial is maybe as bad as the Christine O'donnell "I'm You" commercial. Maybe.

cv said...

Grantham continues to "get it"...

cv said...


Hey Amen...

They're copying our style (but they use just one dot instead of 3)... :-)

Must. Close. Green. On. Pomo.

AmenRa said...


I saw that earlier LMAO.

I-Man said...

Surely mine eyes deceive I?

Is that really Natty pimping an up 13%?

Basket Ball Sucks said...

Sorry guys, but it needed to be said.


Mangy Mutt

Boise State said...

Andy - I don't know if you are having a chance to watch the Boise State game or not.

It is now halfway through the 2nd quarter, Boise was on a 4th and 3 and went for it. It now 21-7 Boise.

Looks like this just might be that blow out I mentioned earlier.


Mangy Mutt

karen said...

Grantham does get it... it's all just common sense, tho.. how could the fed have gone so wrong for so long..

I-Man, i'm seeing what you are seeing and the dollar up, too..

Andy T said...

This is sort of how BSU screwed themselves last year. They have to schedule these "off night" games against conference opponents in order to get some publicity. Then, the WAC opponent comes it feeling "slighted" in the underdog role and plays as tough as they can.

LaTech is trying hard here. I think BSU will cover the 37 pt line, but it will be tough to do. They may have to scrap it out to cover the full line.

Game Coming to an End said...

Karen - I sure hope this signals the beginning of the end of the ZIRP and other games the Feds have been playing.

I know it means the "you know what" storm is going to hit us, but we are going to have to deal with it at some point and IMO the sooner the better,

I take it you are not watching Basketbrawl :)

Mangy Mutt

Screwing themselves said...

Andy - I hear you there, but unfortunatly they do not have much choice in the matter. They have tried to play schools outside the WAC, but the bigger name schools have nothing to win and everything to loose.

I guess Boise State is leaving the WAC next year though.


McFearless said...

these old boys on the celts (and rondo) still getting it done

bosh is a hot 3-11 from the floor.

McFearless said...

now its getting interesting

karen said...

kol on letterman:

I-Man said...

aud/usd getting whacked

Great News said...

For those of you interested.

Boise State won... Wooo Hooo

Now a few more obsticals to climb and they are National Champions.

Yea... Like that is going to happen

Mangy Mutt

cv said...

new thread up

CV <3's Boise State...

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