Sunday Evening Post

Good Evening Capitalists,

There's not a lot of to say about last week--not much really happened in the markets when all was said and done. Both the S&P and DXY finished the week nominally higher, but it wasn't anything to write home about. I suppose the big highlight was the Dollar finally stopped going down. Unfortunately for us Dollar bulls, one week does not a trend make--we have plenty of work ahead to prove some sort of "real bottom."

The S&P continues to be an uninteresting grind higher. There were a few moments last week when it looked like we might be in store for a decent correction, but those moments were fleeting. The Bottom Line: It looks like S&P needs to correct back to the 1132-1154 zone before putting in a final wave higher that should rigorously test the April highs.

Market Update 24 October 10

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This is all I have to add... CV...

241 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 241   Newer›   Newest»
bob said...

Stating the obvious, but still worth reading-

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/22/379796/something-exceptional-is-happening-in-volatility-correlation/

AmenRa said...

Thanks Andy. I think this week will be all about keeping the market flat until FOMC. That is unless Foreclosuregate ramps up and find banks liable for more than they've allocated for putbacks.

Andy T said...

I sort of lost track of this...didn't realize how lopsided the opinion polls were getting

GOP at 90% Chance of taking House

I actually didn't realize that the Dems had screwed themselves so badly that GOP could actually take the House back. No wonder there's so much anxiety and tension out there....

Should be interesting.

steve said...

as an aside, doesn't this article remind you of the tech millionaire/billionaire articles of 1999, except now it's Austrailan coal mining:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39816465/

steve said...

Who Wants To Be A Billionaire?

Nathan Tinkler seems like your average man. He’s a trained electrician, with a young family, and has a passion for racing and V8 super cars. But this 34-year-old is not your everyday Australian. With a personal fortune of A$610 million ($596 million) earned in the space of just a few years, Nathan Tinkler is on track to becoming Australia’s youngest and fastest-ever self-made billionaire. ...

Andy T said...

steve: good stuff. There are some similar "overtones" there....

So, where is Coal Mining at on the spectrum of time? Is it 1999 and we still have 20% blowoff top coming? Or is it early 2000?

DL said...

AT @ 8:48

"...the Dems had screwed themselves so badly that GOP could actually take the House back".

I think that Pelosi realized that the price she'd have to pay for the HC bill and the "stimulus" bills was her Speakership.

Anything that was obvious to an ordinary J6P like myself (even several months ago) should have been obvious to a political pro such as herself.

Andy T said...

@DL. I think you're giving her a little more credit than I would. If one were to sacrifice a Speakership over a piece of legislation, it seems like one would have at least made it something good...and not something that can be challenged by various Attorneys General.

You maybe right, though. In her mind, maybe she was some kind of Legislative Jesus...."I will sacrifice myself for...(insert HR# here)"

I'm sort of looking forward to overdosing on the CNN 2010 Election coverage...

steve said...

Maybe it's like the fall of '99 -- Maybe one more move up for the commodties trade ... perhaps coincident with a quick fake-out thrust down for the USD out of that congestion you noted.

DL said...

AT,

"I'm sort of looking forward to overdosing on the CNN 2010 Election coverage"

Gonna be a late night Nov 2nd.... lot of very close elections.

karen said...

a GOOD short read from NLY..

"The dollar-based price movements that we’ve seen in these assets [gold, $spx, $copper] since the beginning of September has been less about expected future real economic growth than it has been about compensating investors for the potential future inflation from a flood of newly printed dollars. What will happen to the prices of risk assets if this expected future inflation doesn’t materialize to bring up the nominal price level is an interesting question to consider."

http://annaly.com/blog/2010/10/22/DollarDoldrums.aspx

AmenRa said...

Dollar on life support. Futures on a tear higher. EOM push is on. Below 76.60 on the DXY could open up a move to test 74.17.

Andy T said...

Futures are on a tear. This is going to be an awesome Monday.....

cv said...

I'll be out most of the morning peeps...

If somehow this thing gets to 1200 while I'm not around, somebody SHORT it for me will ya?

Lol

karen said...

morning! I dreamt about this melt-up before waking.. i think it had to do with peeking at futures before bed.. it will be interesting to see what the financials and aapl do..

watched that entire video,btw.. curious about the comments left at youtube, now..

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/15-inviolable-rules-for-dealing-with-wall-street/

AmenRa said...

USDJPY at a low of 80.69 taking out the lows from the last two weeks.

McFearless said...

ooh, I'm going to take a beating this morning on the Q's

Mondays!

karen said...

interesting that this story is being floated now..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-interest-tax-break-faces-ax-report-2010-10-25?dist=beforebell

Anonymous said...

Can they pull Brett Favre? I hate to see him play like that week after week. The guy is not fit to be playing.

Anonymous said...

@Karen:

They'll never touch the mortgage interest tax deduction. The banks won't have it--it doesn't subsidize borrowing. They're already having enough trouble growing revenue. Democrats won't touch it because they want everyone to be overleveraged. The Republicans won't touch it because they can't abandon their tax dogma, even where it makes sense.

karen said...

total conviction:

MarketWatch) -- The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund opened higher by 1% Monday as key component Citigroup Inc. added 3% after Goldman Sachs added to the stock to its conviction buy list. Traders will be looking for a report on September existing home sales later in the morning.

karen said...

just imagine if GS had come out with a conviction buy on LEH : )

karen said...

get ready for a reversal.. unless exiting home sales rock our world!!

karen said...

have an order in for dto but not tagged yet..

karen said...

mrtopstep - GS says that #QE may be $2 trln. Suggests #Fed will announce a $500 bln action or slightly more over a six month period. Says the key question is not the size of the first step but how far Fed officials will ultimately need to move to achieve their dual mandate $$

karen said...

Bloomberg says existing home sales probably rose in September..

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awANv7OOE6Ho

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'm with anon, I just don't see the mtg interest going away, at least not right now.

karen said...

.93%, .83%, .90%

karen said...

1% up across the board now.. wonder if they can get all 30 to new 52 week highs today..

karen said...

forget that.. BAC can't get back to 19s, nor AXP back to 49.. at least not today.

McFearless said...

this will likely serve as the top of Neely's 3 of C on his count....dude is on fire right now.

AmenRa said...

If economic data continues to be BTE then does that weaken the need for a QE2 in Nov?

karen said...

check TLT and TBT..

karen said...

"They were still down 19 percent from the same month a year earlier. August's results were revised downward slightly."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-sales-up-10-pct-in-Sept-apf-920478324.html?x=0

karen said...

AR, on cue: CNBC reporting Feds Lacker says "no need for QE2"

karen said...

oh, dear! BAC red : (

McFearless said...

QE has nothing to do with the economy, that much seems pretty clear at this point

McFearless said...

I just added a little more to the Q's short. Monkey Monday's I guess.

karen said...

Ben, your buddy, JA.. http://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-why-the-gold-bubble-will-burst-2010-10

karen said...

and from that other guy.. "9 Ways That Gold Is A Religion Masquerading As An Asset Class"
http://www.businessinsider.com/9-ways-that-gold-is-a-religion-masquerading-as-an-asset-class-2010-10#ixzz13NdI9a2A

AmenRa said...

Ben

The banks want QE2 to cover litigation fees. How else can they pay out a bonus? Excess reserves will not cover the losses from foreclosuregate or putbacks.

AmenRa said...

Karen

So talking down gold from every angle. Smells of desperation.

McFearless said...

gold bubble?

lol, not reading that.

people will call anything a bubble anymore

karen said...

It is ASSUMED that there will be more QE:

"So we asked Whitney Tilson, the hedge fund manager of T2 Partners, to explain how the US, which is about to issue a second wave of quantitative easing, is different."

http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-tilson-the-us-is-not-like-japan-2010-10#ixzz13Ndkgg1r

McFearless said...

gold is no more a religion than stocks....I'd argue the paper money religion is far more insane, gold has history as long as man.

Ra,

no doubt, the idea that QE2 is about saving the economy is simply another lie, what else is new.

karen said...

Yeah.. you dont have to watch the slideshows.. the titles are enuf!

karen said...

now i've read everything!! "The US is a more vibrant country. Capitalism in the US is more open and free. Entreprenuerialism in the US is inspired, alive and well."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-tilson-the-us-is-not-like-japan-2010-10#ixzz13NeKfKPF

karen said...

new high in FXA.. 99.99

AmenRa said...

Karen

Sounds like short interest is still too high for their tastes. Shorts are holding strong this time singing "I Shall Not Be Moved".

McFearless said...

Merrill is out recruiting again....interesting, it's been a couple years.

karen said...

fascinating to me: "In an April letter, the SEC asked Berkshire why it was not recording write-downs on shares with $1.86 billion in unrealized losses, all of which had been in that position for at least a year."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69O2S820101025

basically, the answer was they plan to hold the shares until they recover..

McFearless said...

but of course, warren's time frame is forever, which apparently has made him exempt from rules everyone else has to comply with. documentation of compliants against him continue to surface, I'm sure he's entirely legit though....

karen said...

Here's Why Betting On Modest Deflation Is The Trade Of The Decade

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/deflation-trade-of-the-decade-2010-10#ixzz13NilD6fi

karen said...

Deflation Disappears With Bond Market Showing Growth

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-25/deflation-disappears-with-bond-market-showing-growth.html

karen said...

okay.. that was my last MSM post!

karen said...

Tyler posting about the Berkshire revelations.. He is quick on the draw! Fastest gun in the country, I bet.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/berkshire-takes-accounting-rules-its-own-hands-tells-sec-stuff-it

karen said...

Roubini is calling for Greece default.. not that story again!! thot it was well under the rug.

karen said...

uup at hod now fxe dropping to lod

AmenRa said...

The overnight ramp is loosing its strength earlier and earlier each day...

Leftback said...

TLT is up because there is a long end POMO tomorrow. Almost put a long bond trade on Thursday but missed it. Will fade this move tomorrow.

Deflation isn't done until we have affordable housing prices in ALL sections of the market and ALL regions of the US.

We will experience a series of waves, alternating rides on the D train with a trip on the Q, E and R trains. Bucky will be our Guide.

Leftback said...

LB thinks it is a bit "wack" that people want to block Andy from posting at a BLOG THAT HE HIMSELF STARTED and we all migrated to.

I mean, C'MON, MAN..!! Just calling it like I see it....

Put the politics down, everyone, please. It's not like your parties here in the US are very different from one another anyway... right Blanky?

Andy T said...

Watching highlights of the Minn/GB game again. Vikings are a funny team....they have two of the most electric young players in the game in Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin...and yet they still have Favre out there trying to heave the ball around and make plays.

It's over for Favre. He's hurting that team.

Lord Blankfiend said...

True.

We own all of them.

Leftback said...

Jets have "LT" and he ain't even close to finished.

karen said...

"One thing is certain. With all this talk about QE2, there is no expectation that the short-term interest rate will do anything but remain near zero. That is likely to be the case for a long time. By long time, we mean a period measured in months and maybe years. Cumberland’s portfolio strategy continues to evolve with the basic assumption that the zero boundary in short-term rates is here to stay for a while."

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisors

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/qe2-yabba-dabba-doooooooo/

Leftback said...

One possibility on LB's radar is that post-QE we pull back to the "Golden Cross" level as there will be technical buyers at both the 50 and 200 DMA levels, add those together and you get strong support. That would be a significant retracement of the move up from the 1040/1050 zone. Of course it is likely that QE infinity sentiment would levitate the market above that level.

Frankly, the easiest post-QE trade is the Treasury market, which is much much more extended than equities.

LB will be reducing risk this week. A dollar rally seems imminent. LB will be kissing goodbye to emerging markets longs and reducing equities. Cash will look very good next week/month.

karen said...

GS red. BAC red. WFC red. and C soon to be red..

EEM looks exactly like SPY on ten min chart..

the index %s are still pretty tight.

Anonymous said...

@LB (11:10)

Actually I think ALL LIBERALS are correct...

There's a need to SILENCE the voices of all dissenting libertarian thought processes...

It's counterproductive (their opinions)...

Nobody needs to hear their neo-Nazi POV's... They should all be exterminated... Every last one of them, until all that's left are people who think like liberals...

McFearless said...

I agree AT, it's time for Favre to pack it in...I think everyone's had about enough of him.

McFearless said...

this type of thing usually goes maintstream just in time for John E. to get toasted:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111110/qe2-how-to-play-the-feds-next-big-move?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Leftback said...

Goncalves and Nordvig at Nomura have been right - often.....

Leftback said...

Goncalves is one of the few Treasury analysts on the Street who is even close to being as good as...... well, you know.

McFearless said...

no doubt everyone will try to label this move off the top another 5.....yuk yuk.

Leftback said...

Data will be weak early on this week, Case-Shiller and confidence, then stronger as we go through the week, durables, GDP etc...

Bucky may reach his nadir tomorrow.

karen said...

why anyone would bet on the long side of euro, aussie, or yen at this point is beyond me..

Leftback said...

Because they are momos, Karen....

AmenRa said...

The monthly 3LB reversal price is acting like Scorpion (Mortal Kombat). It's telling the SPX price to "Come Here!"

Timmy said...

I believe in a strong dollar.

This time I really mean it.

AmenRa said...

GS to issue 250mm notes at 6.25% with 50yr maturity.
GS 50yr Notes

Why? Not enough in the coffers to pay bonus?

karen said...

all i know is GLD is headed back to 126.

karen said...

BAC needs a conviction buy from GS..

karen said...

gotta luv this title (and no no no, the market is not overbot!)

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/25/a-new-high-in-new-highs.html

I-Man said...

Interesting little spat of volume at the NY lunch hour...

Somebody's getting ancy...

karen said...

BAC only has 10 BILLION shares issued..

karen said...

compared to C's 29 BILLION..LOL..

72bat said...

"helicopter ben's wall street kleptocracy" board game
and
"helicopter ben's wall street candyland"

karen said...

Karl is not mincing his words: The only "Global Solution" is to put the institutions that did this into recievership. Right now.

http://market-ticker.org/post=170240

karen said...

bat, that monopoly board is hilarious.. someone had a lot of fun.. what a creative outlet for frustration.. a la Jon Stewart.

karen said...

BloombergNow

Wall Street Sold `Tragically Deficient' Product, Angelides Says http://ow.ly/2YVKx

karen said...

Monday, October 25th, 2010, 11:45 am
Standard & Poor's analysts said defaults on loans backing commercial mortgage-backed securities are on pace to break the records set in 2009 but may not peak until after 2011.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/25/sp-defaults-on-cmbs-loans-to-peak-beyond-2011

No worries, tho.. the Fed will keep all asset prices UP.. especially BILLIONS AND BILLIONS of financial equities.

McFearless said...

I took McHappy's advice and went and read all the older KD posts the past week or so, the one is really interesting where he sort of writes off the tea party saying it turned into Gods, gays and guns, which was never what it was supposed to be about....oddly enough while I was reading it the news was on and I see Sarah Palin yelling to some crowd: "we're winning"

McFearless said...

well, the second Q's short today makes the first one a little less cold steelio.

McFearless said...

I will hold these overnight.

Leftback said...

Karen, miniskirt ban at an Italian resort...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11617091

No miniskirt ban here on the blog, however !!

72bat said...

k -
it's the mad, mad williambanzai7

AmenRa said...

I wish Fridays candle was a long body so todays candle would make a nice shooting star (SPX). A lower close wouldn't hurt either.

Leftback said...

The Tea Party is the first random shot in the war between the generations and between the spenders and the savers. But this isn't a serious skirmish, these people are loony toons. Eventually this will be a war and we will all be in the trenches.

Oddly, the Republicans are now the Deflation party. The Democrats are the Reflation party. Remember that over the winter after we see the election results.

karen said...

bat.. i burst out laughing on the Paranormal Trading Activity 2 poster..

karen said...

NicTrades

%%ES_F double target projects low 1179.65

72bat said...

k -
"the Fed will keep all asset prices UP.. especially BILLIONS AND BILLIONS of financial equities."
i remember asking @ tbp way back at the beginning of the mtg crisis, how srs could not be a lock, and couldn't believe it when andy, ben or another of our regulars (can't remember who) said essentially the same thing, that the fed wouldn't let them fail. works until it doesn't.

karen said...

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, increased retail gasoline and diesel prices by 3 percent today as part of government measures to cool the economy and to meet energy-saving targets.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=acGKJSyIoBXM

karen said...

bat.. well perhaps someone with futures trading experience can explain to us how 39 Billion shares of BAC and C can be managed.. so far so good despite damning evidence of insolvency...

karen said...

zerohedge

4.5 Year TIPS Auction Closes At -0.55%, First Ever Negative Yield http://bit.ly/bAJKZc

Leftback said...

SRS did briefly go to 250 or so, I thought, but it was during the baby/bathwater period. I also thought SRS might be a good trade at one point, but what I had missed was that REITs are big holdings of pension funds, and many have large dividends.

It's clear the elite doesn't want commercial property to fall, and they can sustain CRE more easily than the residential market. As long as there is no steady deflation, that is....

karen said...

fxe just went to low of day.. fxy, fxa close as well.

Leftback said...

4.5 Year TIPS Auction Closes At -0.55%, First Ever Negative Yield

Irrational exuberance.
Hot money chasing all asses..., I mean assets...

karen said...

PIMCO

Crescenzi: Government involvement in the markets is likely to remain at a high level for a while

McFearless said...

I think the hardest levered ETF to trade is VXX, really I don't think anyone should play with that one....

McFearless said...

negative yields, ROR! ........as has already been said a bunch, there is a market right now that is seriously wrong, lucky for us we'll all probably live long enough to find out which one it is.

karen said...

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/25/sp-1200/

karen said...

NicTrades

Greenberg Found Liable for AIG Fraud - TheStreet http://stock.ly/2v0wnh

karen said...

LB.. this article is perhaps for you:

http://www.businessinsider.com/heart-rate-stock-market-cardiac-arrest-2010-10

karen said...

it's not too early to look at some monthly charts.. GLD, GDX, both raise eyebrows..

McFearless said...

well, top step said it all, too many shorts pile in on the way down, and up we go.

I-Man said...

Impatient little shorts...

I-Man said...

Need more confidence inna di time...

I-Man said...

Only Jah rule di time...

I-Man said...

Drink that up...

Like Karen's watermelon margarita, with splash of lime...

karen said...

BAC chart is so interesting.. P&F is calling for 9.50.. but when you look at it on a 3 year weekly.. especially the last 2 years from the 2.51 low.. that is a very rounded top.. makes you wonder if recent history won't repeat.

karen said...

I-man.. it was a martini, laughing..

karen said...

interesting tidbit: HousingWire

South Beach area of Miami Beach has 18-year inventory of new condos http://goo.gl/fb/juZg

McFearless said...

18 year inventory!
...gotta read that one, that's a lot of years

I-Man said...

Ooops.

Leftback said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/heart-rate-stock-market-cardiac-arrest-2010-10

LB's heart beats only for you, Mistress K.

McFearless said...

when p/c even starts to sniff one, this is what we seem to get

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/10/25/the-coming-death-of-dr-copper/

This is all well and good for investors that like betting on metals. But it stands to reason that the easier you make it for retail investors to put bets on these assets, the more closely correlated their price movements will become with other riskier assets such as stocks.

The short version is that that the more “financialized” a commodity becomes, the less closely tied it is to supply and demand. The test case is crude oil. As the Journal’s Carolyn Cui recently wrote:

Crude oil is now influenced more by the stock market than by its own inventory levels or demand patterns. Lately, that lockstep has reached an extreme, with the correlation between crude oil and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock Index hovering around 70%, doubling the average of 34% since 2008… Oil and stocks aren’t supposed to swing in sync with each other. Unlike stocks, which are priced off corporate earnings, oil is usually driven by supply-and-demand dynamics.

True, the lockstep trading of crude and stocks seems to have cooled off a bit lately. But in short, it looks like Dr. Copper is about to be subsumed into the big, hazy, risk-on, risk-off muddle that our markets have become. And that deserves a few minutes of silence.

karen said...

I rather liked this comment at TBP:

JerseyCynic Says:
October 25th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
I WANT OUT OF WALL STREET

I say anyone over 50 that can pay off their mortgages with their retirement funds do so now. Get out of wall street and let the big boys (the 1%) have at it. In exchange for giving the banks some real(?) cash, waive our penalties for early withdrawal. If the big boys can keep the market (and big corporations) going on their own, maybe we’ll jump back in after a year or two of saving. We will remain debt free and resist the urge to refinance and stimulate (buy crap) the economy. Since we’ll be mortgage free, we will save up our money and decide if we want to get back in. Maybe we’ll just stimulate our local economies only. If they don’t want to play nice (keep jobs here), why would we want to be a shareholder?

karen said...

with emphasis on: "In exchange for giving the banks some real(?) cash, waive our penalties for early withdrawal."

McFearless said...

ha! most people don't have enough in savings after taxes are paid to pay off the mortgage, especially not in New Jersey....I like the thinking though.

I-Man said...

I think that sentiment will match up rather nicely with reality's outcome.

karen said...

NicTrades
West Virginia sues Monsanto over soybean data http://stock.ly/57zz6g

I-Man said...

ie:

The next panic low will be caused by the older folks "getting out" of Wall Street, or whatever the fuck that means, and I-Man will be right there, buying the hell out of that low.

I'm really starting to get behind Marty's thesis that there will be no lower low.

But there will be another panic low... of that I-Man is certain.

It will "feel" like a lower low...

My work on this changed when I started focusing more on the November 08 low, and less on the March 09 low...

McFearless said...

sounds like someone is using some new fibo skills?

McFearless said...

I,

many things "hit bottom" in November, not March...

I-Man said...

I know nothing.

karen said...

did anyone read Maudlin's "The Subprime Debacle: Act 2, Part 2" ??

McFearless said...

is it worth it Karen?

Mauldin usualy does a lot of cut and paste, very very long letters.

cv said...

"Crescenzi: Government involvement in the markets is likely to remain at a high level for a while"...

Jeez - THINK about that one... Nobody (even here), made any kind of remark about that...

Government effing involvement in markets?

I guess this is what it feels like to be a CHI COM... Then further down in the comments, somebody mentions the LIBERALS being the "reflation" party...

Deductive logic... LIBERALS see us as CHI-COMS...

And it's a "good" thing...

karen said...

ben, give it a skim here:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/the-subprime-debacle-act-2-part-2/

"Final rant. If you were part of a group that knowingly created or sold flawed and fraudulent mortgage-backed securities to pensions and insurance companies and took home tens of millions in bonuses, up and down the management chain, maybe you should consider moving yourself and your money to a country that does not honor US extradition, because my guess is that, as all this comes out, you may have to hire some very expensive lawyers and get measured for pinstripes."

but basically, it mirrors this news item I posted earlier.

Wall Street Sold ‘Tragically Deficient’ Product, Angelides Says

“The notion that Wall Street was non-culpable is just ridiculous,” Phil Angelides, the chairman of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, said in an interview aired yesterday on C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers” show. “Either people knew and didn’t care, or they didn’t know and they didn’t care to know.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB.Q9H4lt9SI

karen said...

CV..@2:17.. what do you expect! It rendered us speechless! LOL.. well not me, obviously.. I get paid by the post, don't you know!!

karen said...

you know, i wonder if BAC will be delisted.. this is not far fetched thinking..

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'll have to wait until tonight, no BR blog at work, site slows down my machine.

karen said...

check today's bac candle..

McFearless said...

hey....how bout dem Raiders!

McFearless said...

when you have one big win in about 6 years you gotta talk about it a little bit

karen said...

ben.. i emailed it to you.. saves you having to find it later..

spoonman said...

K,
You can find the Mauldin article at PragCap as well:

http://pragcap.com/subprime-debacle-2-part-2

McFearless said...

thanks Karen

cv said...

@McF

If you remember... I had the RAIDERS for 3 units on that game in the weekend write-up...

Andy was like... NOT WITH JASON CAMPBELL pal...

Jason Campbell & Co. laid 59 points on Denver...

cv said...

@karen

I wonder how much BAC that Tepper still has...

McFearless said...

C, yeah I saw it. There were a lot of funny games this week, I haven't gone back to check all your picks...that NO/Browns game was wild. McFadden was a beast, this was the guy I hoped we got when he was drafted. When he is healthy look out. My FF game is going to be really close tonight.

Tepper said...

Not nearly as much BAC as I had when I went on TV that day.

Leftback said...

These little rallies in the long bond have the feel of "exit rallies", staged largely to suck in the unwary while the big boys unload remaining inventory.

karen said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BAC+Major+Holders

the 3 major shareholders in C are the same as BAC.. fwiw

cv said...

@McF

I've been going through the scenarios since last night...

It's VERY close as to which team is going to win the 1ST HALF TITLE...

In contention are my team, plus, BOOEY, & THUGS...

I'm playing THUGS (so I control my own destiny)... I have a 26 point lead over him, but he has Hakeem Nicks starting tonight (I'm out of players)... He needs Nicks to have a game either like Kenny Britt, or close, to beat me... (Probably 2 touchdowns and a buck 20 plus receiving yards)...

If I can take care of him, then you need to take care of BOOEY (but he has 3 things going tonight - Austin, Felix Jones, & Dallas D)... It's possible that he catches you if Ahmad Bradshaw doesn't do much...

If Bradshaw were to put up a goose egg, then he'd need 40 points to beat you...

If he scores 40 points, he'd beat me on a tiebreaker by just a few points...

If you just take the PROJECTED STAT numbers... His points and mine would take us to fractions of a point...

So CV is a BIG Ahmad Bradshaw fan tonight (and I need Hameem Nicks to stay under control)...

Lots of potential scenarios...

cv said...

@McF

Bottom line? Going by the chalk? "on paper" - CV wins...

Oh no!... He said "ON PAPER"... :-) That just cut my odds of winning down to about .0000001%)

72bat said...

k -
read it elsewhere (for some reason the last letter i received by email was the 10/8 issue)
mauldin relied heavily on the gonzalo lira rambling at zero hedge. that and others have not done a good job of separating out the issues that msm have ignored, conflated or misunderstood and blog commenters have gone at each other tooth and nail (securitization fraud vs. deadbeat borrowers vs. rule of law issues, etc). denninger, despite his on-going rambling and rants, from early on had it straight front-to-back, i.e., the foreclosure fraud is the ass-end of securitization frauds from the get-go at the front end

cv said...

Best thing that could happen for me would be for Eli Manning to just start hurling balls 50-60 yards downfield (whereby Sensibaugh and the Dallas DB's get flagged for a bunch of pass interference calls)...

Shorten up the field... Then pound the rock in the red zone to Bradshaw who scores about 4 touchdowns...

McFearless said...

lol, on paper.

I think I'm going to win tonight, of course, I think I'm going to win every week. Roddy White had a monster game yesterday, Matt Forte, didn't show up....and I pity the fool using Jay Cutler, he might be the biggest baby to ever make the NFL.

Kenny Britt - was that for real? wow.

maybe there is something to sitting guys early in the game, Braylon Edwards gets sat after his DUI, touchdown, Arian Foster sits out early against the Raiders, comes in....destroys them. Kenny Britt was the latest.

McFearless said...

Jacobs stole a touchdown from AB last week, little worried about that tonight. I hope Dallas gets worked, not that I like the Giants though.

Leftback said...

Exciting today, innit?

cv said...

I was having a theoritical conversation about the Cowboys with a friend of mine the other day (who is a big Cowboy fan)...

I was like... Why the hell doesn't Jerry Jones fire Wade Phillips (which I've been saying for 3 years now)...

He seems to think that Jones will NOT fire Phillips (even if they lose another one here)...

My argument was that if you're going to bring in a new coach and new staff, & if you're going to write off the season, you might as well get the coach in there ASAP so he can evaluate the player personnel in a real game situation (also so the new coach could see what pieces he might need in the draft)...

Probably the ONLY coach that wouldn't need to get involved mid-season like this would be Bill Cowher... (Which all makes sense)... because if the plan is to bring Cowher in... They can afford to just let Wade Phillips embarass himself week after week...

karen said...

just received an email from dear friend i recommended USAGX to for her ROTH a few years ago.. she's up 29% and wanted to know if I thot she should sell.. what's weird is she hardly looks at it I know.. so all the media play must have reached her ears..

Leftback said...

If Bucky were to carve out a perfectly rounded bottom this week, would that bottom in any way match the delightful bottom that we used to occasionally glimpse in one of the icons here at the blog?

(CV, we are not talking about you, sorry...)

Leftback said...

Ben

Email me for NYC restaurant ideas?

Thanks, LB

DL said...

NYC restaurant ideas.

I'd like one without the beadbugs.

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/what-is-mers-and-what-role-does-it-have-in-the-foreclosure-mess-hint-it-holds-60-of-all-mortgages-but-has-zero-employees/

Indeed, as a prominent economist said recently: “At the root of the crisis we find the largest financial swindle in world history”, where “counterfeit” mortgages were “laundered” by the banks.

MERS was a large part of that laundering process.

Update: JP Morgan – one of the founders and largest owners of MERS – is bailing out.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101013/ap_on_bi_ge/us_jpmorgan_mortgages

McFearless said...

LB,

almost forgot, will send you an e-mail tonight, thanks for the reminder, still a bit foggy after this weekend, many frou frous.

Jennifer said...

http://www.artisanalbistro.com/ Artisanal at 33rd and Park. Lived just up the street in the way back when before I discovered the joys of 6 month winters. Not in the theater district, but yummy nonetheless.

McFearless said...

CV,

you think Cowher would ever go to Dallas? I've heard that suggested, can't see him as anything but a Steeler. and speaking of, I can just feel a huge battle coming up in the playoffs btwn them and the Ravens.

cv said...

I read something about the bedbug epidemic over the weekend... Don't know if it's true or not, but anyway...

It was saying that the recent epidemic is largely due to imported fabric (clothes) from Asia... (regardless of how cheap or upscale the clothing), the eggs or whatever get attached to the cloth...

It said that if somebody buys something new at the store, to avoid potentially getting them in your house, then you should toss it in the dryer on high heat for about 20 minutes before you do anything...

Of course that would probably ruin fine fabrics, but that was the gist of it...

karen said...

AIG has 667.2 million shares issued but only 120.9 million floating..

"For Treasury to break even on its $49.1 billion investment in AIG stock, the shares must be sold for almost $30. The company traded below that level for more than two months this year, reaching a low of $22.15 on Feb. 8.

AIG slipped 13 cents to $41.43 at 2:16 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading today. The insurer has advanced about 38 percent this year."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGbxIOzx4OKI

This is a total fraud IMO.

cv said...

@McF

I think Cowher WILL go to Dallas...

McFearless said...

Karen,

re: USAGX, nice rec there, what's your fee? haha.

I've gotten some very strange requests from a couple of John E's the past two weeks. One involved me finding a company that was a takeover target that we could "double or triple our money in over a few weeks"....same guy "maybe something that has to do with space" (yes, seriously)....the other was last week, 100k HELOC and not being used "can we write a check off that and double our money in something and then I'll just pay it off and keep the profit"

this last one has basically "bet the farm" on RRE already, the most recent a condo purchase in Ft. Lauderdale.

McFearless said...

no way dude, he's still have bad dreams about that Super Bowl loss. Who was the QB....Neil O'donnell?

McFearless said...

I want Cowher to go coach at PSU after JoePa is no more.

karen said...

Ben @ 3:12, i'm dying.. hope those were telephone conversations and not face to face.. at least if you start choking you can say you sipped water down the wrong pipe.

McFearless said...

oh, no, those were both face to face around the dinner table convo's Karen, the second one I expect, guy says stuff like that all the time, I have a hilarious story about those two some day...the first one though, yeah, i had to hold it in after the space comment. The first one was the guy that came to me in February of this year with a giant box, and in the box were all the losses he had in the 90's...and yes, I found a sheet with pets.com. He was asking me if I could show him a way to claim the losses on his taxes now since he never claimed them in the 90's....and I remember like it was yesterday he introduced it all by saying...this is what happened to me when I "didn't know what I was doing in the stock market"....now he's looking for space M&A's that double or triple in a few weeks....guess that's when you know what you are doing eh?

McFearless said...

sad thing is, he's still waiting for me to call him back with ideas....something tells me "stay in cash" isn't going to fly.

Jennifer said...

RIMM breaking out today...odd.

McFearless said...

random OT: Today I'm reminded of how talented Dolly Parton is (not a joke)

McFearless said...

wow, Rimm chart, interesting, and no gaps...

cv said...

@McF

He's going to be the next head coach at Dallas... trust me...

Different subject...

Does anyone realize that there has not been a VIX candle to even pierce above 30 since July 2nd?

Hmmm...

July until end of October last year was like that too... But there was still hope the economy was turning around then...

And, of course, 2007 & 2008 had a few 4 month periods like that (right before TSHTF)...

cv said...

@McF (3:22)

You could turn him on to my NCAA & NFL picks...

Or... I'll just be the bookie and book all his ideas... Then take the vig...

AmenRa said...

SigTarp's Neil Barofsky calls out TG and the US Treasury on data manipulation: SigTarp Calls Out TG On various Violations

I want to read the whole thing :-)

McFearless said...

last week when I was talking with a client that I've known for a long time and the tea party came up and I sort of "went-off", she suggested I run for some type of office in DE, and I almost threw up in my mouth, then I thought about it over the weekend. Not trying to blow my own horn, but this quote is what I kept thinking of:

"One of the penalties of refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."
— Plato

karen said...

AR, pls.. "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil"

cv said...

@Amen

One commenter probably had it right...

"This is the "New America". Only Neil Barofsky will be jailed."

---

McFearless said...

anyone else feel like this day is flying by?

karen said...

from wiki:

Today "See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" is commonly used to describe someone who doesn't want to be involved in a situation, or someone willfully turning a blind eye to the immorality of an act in which they are involved. The Italian version, "Non vedo, non sento, non parlo" (I see nothing, I hear nothing, I say nothing), expresses the Omertà, the local code of silence.

karen said...

ben, i do! i did a dbl take on the time earlier..

AmenRa said...

The phone call this morning was to tell LB & JD to close that damn gap on the 180min SPX chart from 1018-10/19. Then take the rest of the day off.

cv said...

@McF

Running for political office?

LOL (not you - just the idea)...

Let me remind you, my young friend, that POLITICS is the problem... We need LESS of them (of either kind)...

McFearless said...

I feel like I just got in here, and it's 15 minutes to close!....where does the time go (maybe the same place as all the cash on the sidelines...it just goes poof)

cv said...

@karen (3:39)

Here's the Sgt. Schultz version...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34ag4nkSh7Q

AmenRa said...

Scorpion: "COME HERE!!!"

cv said...

@karen

Or - CV's all time favorite (at 4:24)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNKwmIRu5Vo&feature=related

karen said...

steven hicks (hf manager) charged with fraud by SEC

karen said...

CV.. never heard the latter before, but the former makes me feel OLD!

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