Morning Audibles

I had a thread, kind of, ready to go for this morning (which, frankly wasn't that interesting because it was just a collection of idiot reporting on financia;l and political stories... A "collage", sort of...

I often think that in another place and time, I might have tried my hand as a skit writer for Saturday Night Live...

Anyway, last night I was doing my usual C'MON MAN Monday Night football thing, (it was a particular night because I had some important things riding on the outcome involving payouts in some Fantasy Leagues)... When I woke up this morning, I did my usual thing and did a quick check around the blogosphere to see what was happening...

I came across this post at andytsgang.blogspot.com


This was from bergsten, (who CV still suspects is CNBCS)... Anyway, as a host myself, I feel it appropriate to comment...

First of all, I want to say that I thought it was a very accurate portrayal (by bergsten)... So basically, if I were to have made a comment in that thread, I would have said "Thumbs Up"...

I'm going to touch on a few issues...

Bergsten was correct in the unfolding of events last December... Most people easily remember that the Ritholtz blog was where these personalities (who are passionate about economics/politics/socio-economics) were collected in the first place...

I can only speak from my own POV, but the thing that used to bother me about the Ritholtz blog was the fact that BR seemed to be acutely intent on executing a form of control, and keeping things filed into some kind of tidy order... I remember having "codes" with I-Man (and others), where we would exit to abandoned threads to talk about the tape and other things... It was like truckers changing CB channels...

I'm critical about BR for a lot of things, but in the end, I have no right to criticize him for how he wants to run a blog that he spends time and effort to produce...

It was (to me) natural, that Andy (and others) were feeling the same thing, and A LOT of credit should go to Andy T for creating a new space (last August) that eventually many regular posters at TBP decided was to their liking as it was a little more "user friendly"...

That lasted a few months until Andy had to close up shop (because of a new job)... It happened without warning, and basically, on a Sunday night... By the next Morning (Monday), bergsten had set up a new shop... I can honestly say that had I known Sunday Night, I would have done the same thing... The difference? 3 hours... (California time versus East Coast time)... I was already asleep in bed in the moment it happened...

My thoughts, (when visiting the new site - Monday morning) were...

- Oh good... at least this thing is still in tact
- Someone is going to have to take care of content going forward (not an easy job)
- Damn this page is ugly
- If it's not ANDY's anymore, it's going to need a new identity

CV was the first one to "suggest", in that thread, that a name (not andytsgang), and a SLOGAN would be appropriate... I suggested that everyone nominate something, and karen came up with TRADERS-ANONYMOUS... I've been involved in situations where things are stolen, so I did not delay while an entire grand debating society deliberated on the outcome... CV is NOT a fan of "too many cooks"... So I registered the blogspot...

The rest, was basically played out in public... I know, for about a week (and ever since), I was subject to intense HATRED by certain populations... Others gave me the benefit of the doubt... Within a week, I decided that I would never be able to make a bunch of people happy, so I did a Jerry Maguire, and took my ONE CLIENT (ahab), and went another direction...

That's where it still stands (10 months later)...

What's the outcome? What's this blog all about?

If I could characterize it, I'd say it's about DISSENT... EXPRESSION & DISSENT... Most who are involved in trading (as most here do in a not insignificant way), know about DISSENT... You always have to challenge your own resoning... I, personally, find myself enraged mostly towards people & groups who simply accept the status quo... I could conjure up many metaphors here, but the best would probably be the American Revolution... Let's put it this way, if THE INTERNET had existed back in late 1700's, I doubt the AR would have ever occurred... I doubt BR's "tsk" "tsk" letters to King George would have cut it...

So basically, I ENCOURAGE live debate, and even "shouting matches" on this blog... While I don't model myself after Zero Hedge, I'd say that I do fundamentally like their "fight club" mentality... I think that you'll find here that after a good fight, people pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and shake hands in the end...

So basically... Come here and say anything you want to say (but prepared to get pistol whipped if somebody woke up on the wrong side of bed)... I DO NOT edit and delete comments (need to address that subject, because it was pointed out in the bergsten thread that I DID edit out a comment on one occasion in the past)...

It was a comment by Mutt... Frankly, it was so long ago that I forgot the exact subject matter, but I do remember, that before I took it off, I addressed, to Mutt directly, that I was going to do so... I basically said, "let's not go there at this time"... Maybe that was an ERROR on my part... Little did I know that one isolated instance (in which I did my best to explain why I was doing it at the time), would get tossed back in my face...

Anyway, if Mutt is reading this, he should remember that occasion, and acknowledge that I am correct in what I'm saying now... Unless you failed to see my comment as to my actions...

In any case... What you see is what you get on this blog... I've been banned from posting comments at TBP, so basically if I have to address a TWSWB POV, I have to do it here... I have a user handle at Zero Hedge (but I rarely post there)... Any appearance at andytsgang.blogspot.com is met like a sweaty person walking into a mosquito factory...

So I post my ideas here... And I've said before... I'm an equal opportunity assassin... Nobody is too big or too small to be put under my microscope... As a fair exchange, I don't object to being placed under anyone elses microscope...

Sometimes it's going to be calm, sometimes thought provoking, sometimes boring, sometimes whimsical, sometimes rowdy... I don't care... All you need to do here (and to keep this thing alive), is to BE ALIVE, and to BE ALIVE, you have to BE INVOLVED (not just the "consenting" & "polite" parts of you [which is the stuff of failed relationships, over time])...

So have at it...

CV



267 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 267   Newer›   Newest»
AmenRa said...

BAC is going to have a 10 handle real soon.

cv said...

@Amen

Maybe they need to bring Ken Lewis back in to right the ship :-)...

AmenRa said...

Case Shiller just reminded the market that housing hasn't found a bottom. Mark-to-market that damn banks.

Jennifer said...

Alphahorn's forcasting a move down to 1135, followed by up to near 1250, and then all hell breaks loose. This seems pretty similar to lotso f other peoples wave counts.

Jennifer said...

My dad sold the BAC 10 puts...I thought I was teaching him to fish, but I didn't think he was planning on fishing for piranhas.

karen said...

morning.. i'm late.. skimmed the above.. trying to get my bearings..

what is this "Pittman" thing?

McFearless said...

there should probably be some type of reality show about the two blogs, it'd prbobably do alright in the ratings

karen said...

The "Pittman" decision is being appealed to the US Supreme Court.

This decision, for those who don't remember, was the case where Bloomberg sued The Fed under the FOIA for release of lending records. The Fed fought the release, and was ruled against twice. Now their member banks through the Clearinghouse Association are appealing the decision to the US Supreme Court.

http://market-ticker.org/post=170329

McFearless said...

@Jennifer,

that's pretty close to Neely's, I'm not sure where EWI stands short term right now, I've specifically avoided them of late as to not muck up my trades.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Mark Pittman (RIP) is the reporter from Bloomberg who filed a FOIA request to the Fed to get them to disclose who received bailout money.

McFearless said...

we have already covered yesterday's Q's short....little profit, still holding on to the first lot, which is still slightly red.

karen said...

tradefast

potential base on crude daily, a move above $85 implies target of $100

karen said...

indices trading in lockstep, sighing..

cv said...

@McF

The thing that kind of makes me laugh is the "by committee" approach...

Someone blurts out an idea (which is met with a chorus of "I agree" "I agree" "Good post" "well said")...

The idea may be FOS, but because you have a bunch of people more interested in agreeing with each other and being civil, the idea is basically "VOTED IN" towards embeding into a mindset...

Once established, it can never be challenged (by reason), because the REASON must not only overcome the idea itself, but also a group of individuals who have staked their pride in its outcome...

Of course, you see it all the time...

- In the science community (the world is flat)
- Global Warming
- Hope & Change
- The Fed "religion"

It's amazing to me that people like BR are intelligent enough to see that behavior on a macro scale, yet fail to see that when it comes to the buffer around their tight realm of existence, the curiosity and effort to challenge no longer apply...

Andy T said...

"Sometimes it's going to be calm, sometimes thought provoking, sometimes boring, sometimes whimsical, sometimes rowdy... I don't care... All you need to do here (and to keep this thing alive), is to BE ALIVE, and to BE ALIVE, you have to BE INVOLVED (not just the "consenting" & "polite" parts of you [which is the stuff of failed relationships, over time])..."

Good stuff, that.

Leftback said...

LB is appalled at the recent blog war flare-ups. I don't want to comment further, but I don't like to see people (AT) treated unfairly.

Leftback said...

POMO ahead, but the long end isn't "feeling it" yet today.

cv said...

@McF

One of the reasons I do the weekly "football" predictions (besides the fact that I like football - and know certain others do as well), is because...

I like to PUT MYSELF OUT THERE (as far as making a prediction id concerned)...

I'll state a case, present REASON behind the case, place a RISK on the outcome...

If my predictions are WRONG, I'm embarassed... Nothing makes a person BETTER than the embarassment of humiliation...

So using this "baptism by fire" approach... My picks have become marginally better over time... But no matter how good or bad they are, the universe will always concoct something that you'd never thought of before (or force you to factor in things you'd never accounted for before)...

In any case, I think it's a good exercise...

cv said...

@Andy

You have to go back and read some of my comments at the end of AMEN RA's thread last night (regarding my team's FF record)...

My team doesn't have the most amount of points scored... But you have to admit that I MANAGE my team well...

I've made many critical roster moves during the season that made the marginal point difference between havig a 4-3 (or 3-4) record, or a 6-1 record (where I stand)...

CV's guile is underappreciated in the realm of FF...

McFearless said...

CV,

look, all I know is I get to talk to a handful of people every day that I enjoy and I think are helping me see things in the market I wouldn't otherwise see on my own, helping me improve, making me laugh, getting me fired up sometimes about issues, introducing me to new tunes even... and on and on....that is happening here, it's good enough for me.

As for Barry, I really don't want to get into it, but the bottom line for me is that I'll start having the same respect I used to have for him when he stops acting infallible.

McFearless said...

CV,

10:19, absolutely.

this is also part of the reason I post here as well, when you put yourself out in public you better come with your A game because others won't let you forget, this either motivates you or scares you away for good. I had a discussion with AT well over a year ago and I remember him saying something to me along the lines of "I like putting my analysis in writing and in the public because it forces me to do the best analysis I'm capable of, it forces me to produce work that has validity and rigor"

I agreed 100%.

McFearless said...

oh, and CV, btw....you are welcome (for your FF victory....now cash those checks already)

2small2bail said...

Speaking of embarassment, mine stung slightly less at 2-4 then it would have at 5-1 for having Britt on the bench. Maybe "Wannabe" would have been better than "Rookies", but I've learned a little :-), for a fee.

CV - Congrats on 1st half ... and yes, cash 'em if you haven't.

cv said...

@McF

I do owe "The Bo Jacksons" a debt of gratitude for taking down Booeys...

Go take a look at the POINTS...

CV: 705.24
Booey: 705.68

If you hadn't won, he'd have eeked me out for the top spot on that tiebreaker...

I've been in his leagues (baseball & football) for the past couple of years and it always seems like our teams are going at it in the end...

It's still amazing to me that after an entire season of play, it all comes down to, like what amounts to a 4 yard gain by some back, or some pitcher walking one batter in a meaningless game...

I GOT HIM this time... I've been on the other side many times...

McFearless said...

yeah, he got a few points right at the end of the game last night. the league should end up being very close

FF B-ball starts tonight! I got baller Kevin Durant on my squad.

cv said...

@2small

even at 2-5... You're totally still in this thing...

I was 2-5 last year at this time... Fought my way back, and then missed the last playoff spot by a few points on the last game...

FF is unpredictable... You have to just learn to MAXIMIZE your output each week, then let the chips fall as they may...

cv said...

@mcF

back to the tape...

These things still look like "3 downs" to me...

McFearless said...

i don't know about ahabs squad, but I still think pretty much everyone else has a shot, sorry ahab.

McFearless said...

CV,

yes they are... everything looks corrective in both directions as far as I can tell.

I-Man said...

This lower high is suspect, expect one more push up to a slightly higher high, then bombs away into lunch.

I-Man said...

1min chart... just to be clear.

cv said...

@I-Man (10:56)

That conforms to the TRENDLINE that I'm following (which include the AH prints)...

I'll put up a chart in the thread in a minute if I get a chance...

cv said...

@I-Man

new chart in thread

These are the AH prints I'm referring to (5 min chart)...

The wedge was broken to the downside and might just be coming to the point (in time) to finish...

Anyway... It has the look of a "bear flag"...

Anonymous said...

U.S. Treasury concealed a $40B loss on AIG's bailout, inspector says
The U.S. Treasury Department hid $40 billion in likely losses on the bailout of American International Group when it changed the way it calculates such data, said Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. "In our view, this is a significant failure in their transparency," he said.

McFearless said...

a significant failure in transparency?

well, back in the little shit town I come from we call it fraud, lies, corruption, not a simple failure in transparency, if it were as simple as a transparency issue they wouldn't be out there claiming AIG is all paid up and lying about the loss amounts.

cv said...

Before I got sidetracked... I loved this...

Bernanke Asset Purchases Risk Unleashing 1970s Inflation Genie

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/bernanke-s-next-round-of-asset-purchases-risks-jimmy-carter-like-inflation.html

William Dudley, president of the New York Fed and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, yesterday repeated that current levels of inflation and a 9.6 percent unemployment rate are “unacceptable” and said the Fed needs to take action, even though expanding the balance sheet isn’t a “perfect tool.”

Here's the money shot...

A 10 percent decline in the dollar in the first six months of next year would push the economy above estimates of trend growth, moving indicators on inflation and employment more rapidly toward the Fed’s policy goals, according to a simulation run by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC on their model of the U.S. economy.

That settles it people... Let's get that dollar to ZERO... By then, the economy should be flying and we should be at full employment...

Of course, the littel NOTES you're working for won't be worth anything (neither will be what you think are your assets)...

But that's beside the point... What's important is that the Fed meets its objective...

I-Man said...

There's too many chickenshit shorts in right now for us to have a swift breakdown...

We need more chickenshit longs to get suckered in...

Look for the bait push any time now...

Should come quick and fast, with temptation of easy profits...

cv said...

Look...

If even fucking AOL "gets it"... It means that...

The Fed = FAIL

Let BR (& his gang of agreeable debaters) argue about the nuances of what FAILURE means...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/credit/why-the-feds-trickle-down-economics-is-failing/19687005/?icid=main%7Chp-desktop%7Cdl10%7Csec1_lnk1%7C180015

cv said...

@I-Man

Something tells me it's not going to happen either way...

It's just going to take one big player to make a move and the rest will follow...

As far as THE NEXT move (the next "fast" one)... It's more likely that it'll be on the sell side...

I don't count the little mini-melt-up yesterday a REAL move...

cv said...

I think LB was onto it a little yesterday...

Bucky still looks like it's rounding (bottom) the corner...

If that can keep on going... It'll be the thing to eventually make some player decide that it would be prudent to head for the exits...

I-Man said...

All who sold the first couple highs must be forced to cover...

Before we can really breakdown.

There is some resistance just about ten pts above the earlier YM high... we will tag it.

McFearless said...

It's amazing to read all the revisionist tendencies of the rally analysis that are everywhere now. Our COO just put out a laugher yesterday, and even stated within that deflation and inflation was all about prices and that there was no way we were like Japan (stating our "dynamic economy" and "population growth") Much in the same way pundits/economists/mm's that failed in 2008 stated reasons for the market sell-off, well after the fact, and when read revealed that they were really nothing more than belated rationalization for actions born of panic, they are now doing the same thing with the rally that started in March 2009, identifying the FedRes and other agencies panicked steps, at the lows not to mention, as the "cause" of the rally and the reason we "avoided another great depression"

also, good to see people still need models that tell them what happens if the dollar goes down more. Model away boys!

Leftback said...

Still watching Bucky, CV, expect the leveraged dollar shorts to shove his head down the toilet at least once more before the FOMC....

I-Man said...

Dont get me wrong, we will break down... there is alot of overhead supply...

I'm watching YM 11132 for the react.

McFearless said...

p/c not too far from 1 most of today thus far, so yeah....probably a lot of chickenshit shorts

I-Man said...

"They" might pull another one of those sneaky lunch hour dumps again today...

Thats probably what this little jiggle up here is going to set the stage for.

I-Man said...

By the way, I love it when a Gann angle retest is halted at a fib resistance...

It really gets me excited.

I-Man said...

Not as excited as LC does, tho...

:)

I-Man said...

http://img2.timeinc.net/people/i/2007/database/laurenconrad/lauren_conrad300.jpg

McFearless said...

I-man,

Cobra has today as an important Gann date.

McFearless said...

also a huge LC fan.

I-Man said...

This might be it... tape a little weaker than I would have thought.

I-Man said...

Never fails... just express doubt, and the market is sure to deliver what you were about to give up on...

Jennifer said...

SPX hourly formed perfect bear wedge...

McFearless said...

not that I've mapped them out or anything but look at the formation since 10:26 today... three leg moves, peeking out the top a bit, another triangle of some sort?

effing triangles

c'mon man!

I-Man said...

Each one of those peaks touches off a Gann off the last pivot high.

4 knocks at the door, usually is followed by the battering ram.

Whether it holds is more important than the thrust itself.

McFearless said...

also, not sure if POMO is the impact but TLT taking a little cold steel

uup up, vxx up, gld up, tbt up

rimm having another big push today

Anonymous said...

I don't like to trade on gut, but I had to dump my gold miner today. I want to be in cash whenever Bucky decides to hammer out a bottom.

cv said...

@LB

"shove his head down the toilet at least once more"

ROR

I can't wait to find a jpg image on the internet of Ben bernanke getting a swirlie...

I'll be sure to post it as soon as I find it...

cv said...

@I-Man

Her's what I see on those 1 min charts (which, of course, is what you're seeing as well)...

Looks like a couple more little zigzags (while people are on their way to get their hoagies)...

new chart in thread

karen said...

remember fxp and fxi? i was just charting them for fun..

karen said...

i don't know what to make of eem.. that isn't bearish, i mean..

cv said...

@karen

I always have FXI & FXP up on my "list" of stuff that I watch out of the corner of my eye...

FOR FUN :-)

McFearless said...

yeah, I like to watch those two as well, I also watch brazil quite a bit lately.

karen said...

ewz and ech.. ech hasn't taken the hit the ewz has recently, but it's doing a slow motion rollover perhaps..

I-Man said...

I think 44.5 or so is about the make or break print for EEM, Karen.

If it gets a weak bounce there after undercutting it a little, I would sell a retest of 46.

I really like the new beta anno feature at stockcharts... I've been looking for a new charting program to do my anno's with.

My work terminal is futures only.

karen said...

the $indu hasn't had a black candle in at least two years..has one right now, tho we've got 4 closes left in the week.

cv said...

@McF

Olympics... right? - ror...

This... interesting...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/project-weimar-why-qe2-could-be-more-inflationary-you-think

Basically, they get on to saying what CV has been saying recently...

That is... WHATEVER QE2 is, the markets won't think it's enough...

It'll be a "sell the news" event... The famous "catalyst" will be that one shop wasn't positioned correctly for a "sell the news" scenario, and the ball will start rolling from there...

This is December 2007...

cv said...

Vote early vote often...

http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/25511115/detail.html

karen said...

"On Jan. 28, 2009, Pittman asked Treasury officials for details related to guarantees the agency had provided on securities held by Citigroup, American International Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. Among other things, he asked for any contracts with outside firms hired to calculate the assets’ values.

In its response, Treasury said AIG didn’t participate in its Asset Guarantee Program. Likewise, despite some negotiations, the government and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America “never entered into a definitive agreement,” the response said.

That left Citigroup, in which the U.S. government was the largest shareholder as of Oct. 1, according to regulatory filings. Taxpayers’ stake, 12.4 percent, was three times the second-largest investor’s."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aI5LcpA0Rksg

McFearless said...

how much C does Princy Ally Wally own? He averaged down quite a few times in 2008 if I remember right.

72bat said...

cv -
vote early, vote often:
"At any time, voters can go back on the screen and review their selections. They are also allowed to make changes and encouraged to double-check their ballot on screen and on paper before it is cast.
Lomax said voters need to have faith in the system."
here in my county in ohio, we can still demand a paper ballot rather than have to put "our faith" in the touch screen.

karen said...

"Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed wants higher inflation, all will be ok as long as you don’t drive, eat, drink, wear cotton based clothes, use copper wire for any type of construction, blow your nose, diaper a kid or wipe your arse."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/kmb-had-highest-ever-cost-inflation-in-q/

karen said...

Has the dollar bottomed out?

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

I-Man said...

Here comes Pinocchio...

Spam Filter said...

Cvienne - It appears you may have something going on with your spam filter or something.

I posted in responce to your morning audibiles, it was on here for a moment, then it disapeared.

Do you mind checking?

Thanks

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/232219-why-citigroup-and-bank-of-america-are-still-buys

cv said...

As some of you may know, one of CV's big pet peeves are the moronic...

"Let's build a smarter planet" ads on TV...

People... All I watch, mostly, on TV are sports (if I happen across something else, it's because I'm browsing around trying to find something - but rarely do)...

When I watch sports, there are only a couple types of ads on... EVER

- Ads for DEBT RELIEF companies
- Banks & Brokerages (who were responsible for the need of the DEBT RELIEF companies)
- Erectile Dysfunction (which you get BECAUSE of the first two)
- These stupid fucking "Let's Build a SMARTER planet" ads from IBM
- Oh, and of course the political ads (this season)
- Plus, of course, either the I-Phone vs. Android wars... or, Satellite TV vs. cable

Who TF does IBM think they are?

Here's KD on how this "smart" this company is...

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=170341

I-Man said...

How bout dem Cowboyz?

BWAHAHAHAHAHA....

karen said...

zerohedge
$35 Billion 2 Year Auction Prices At Fresh Record Low Yield Of 0.4%, 3.43 Bid To Cover http://bit.ly/apIv3f

McFearless said...

Karen,

who can take this kind of analysis seriously:

" Without that impairment charge the company would have actually earned $3.1 billion"

It's like the people that used to say in early 08 "well if you just take out (insert whatever was "bad" here) then xyz doesn't look so bad"

What is this new form of analysis called, we need a catchy phrase for this type of nonsense.

McFearless said...

yes, I shed a little tear when Tony Momo got knocked out of the game. I think the only team I like less than the Yankees are the Cowboys.

Awesome stadium though, even it appears the "largest building" curse hasn't escaped them either.

karen said...

fantasy analysis
dream on analysis
emperor's analysis
pretend analysis

McFearless said...

the political ads here in DE have been at fever pitch for two months, still, i laugh every time they play they mouse brains O'donnell commercial, it's just funny.

McFearless said...

anti analysis
poorhouse analytics
altucher analysis

cv said...

@Mutt

Believe me when I say that I have no idea about any "spam filters" (or 9 tenths of any other things that blogger might have to offer)...

As you notice... This thread is barren of gadgets...

- no fancy tickers
- no "tracking polls" (with country flags) to falsely impress myself or any others that happen to stumble in that some derelict from Kajickistan accidentaly stumbled into my blog once because as he was looking for gay porn
- no ads for NETJETS

I do it mainly for a reason... It probably slows the site down...

So if you (or anybody else) is trying to past comments that don't show... I haven't a fucking clue as to why...

Sometimes I have problems myself... In fact, I'm having a problem right now getting my icon to work...

I have enough other things to worry about...

karen said...

didn't i point out the one month h&s on fxe yesterday ? it got sloppy in the right shoulder but it's still there..

karen said...

JA analysis : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Afternoon Peeps,

Hope somebody kept the beer cold while I was away.

cv said...

Hope ur feeling better Bruce...

72bat said...

fellatious analysis

Anonymous said...

Bruce

That's "Mr. Peep" to you, sir.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

wow, I caught that post about all the health issues that hit you, sounded serious, hope you are doing better man. Take care.

No worries on my part said...

Cvienne and all, my apologies for posting this again, but it seems the first one got stuck in the spam filter or something. It was here, but then it was gone.
-----------------------------------------------
Cvienne Congratulations with the hard work and effort you have put into your blog. I have always maintained that you are not only a wildly entertaining commentator, but usually very insightful.

The description you wrote on your morning audible about “A Tale of Two Blogs” IMHO is a fair, just and accurate and basically the same description I have laid out on several previous occasions.

We only differ on details IMHO details are usually not worth arguing over – Is it Orange-Red or Red-Orange… What difference does it make?

cv said...

@karen

any TOPSTEP tweets?

Part two of no worries on my part said...

Also I agree when you censored…deleted…or what ever my comments on your blog that is was so long ago, it hardly matters. I do not remember if your statement “let's not go there at this time” (Or something to that effect) was before or after you deleted my comments, but again that hardly matters.

What matters is, this is your blog, your readership and collectively your guys and gals “baby” So you have the right to use whatever form of discretion you see fit. Even if that is remove of what you deem unfit.

But I am curious at; Just how is making reference to a fact we both agree on “tossing it back in your face...”? So as you read this you should remember that occasion and acknowledge it is correct that what I'm saying now, was not inappropriate nor did I “Toss” anything back in your face.

To me the whole thing was a non-issue and I only made reference to it as a case in point.

You have all shared a lot of great and useful insight in trading (Something BTW I suck at – Trading), so best of luck to you all in how you figure out how to trade QE4EVER.

Thanks Mangy Mutt

cv said...

@No worries

OK... Thanks for taking the time to express that...

Leftback said...

JA analysis?

Karen, EEM is on LB's STPS list.

Sorry for spliting that up said...

It seems the first couple times I posted the above it got stuck in the spam filter or something. I did not/do not want to accuse Cvienne of censoring my comments, so I figured I would post it in parts.

Thanks for you patients

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

mrtopstep
New Video: Stormy Tuesday in Chicago but Market Trend Still in Tact http://mrtopstep.com/?p=1020

Leftback said...

STPS = Sell This Pile Soon

McFearless said...

I think JA analysis is good, moving forward i will be using this phrase (often)

No problem on my part said...

Cvienne - You are more then welcome and I appreciate the oppertunity to express the above.

You made refrence in your morning audibles, we seem to agree on the basic princil, I felt it was in everyones best interst to respond.

Thanks Again

Mangy Mutt

McFearless said...

so I guess buffett has anointed Combs?

and it wasn't Sean P. Diddy Combs.

McFearless said...

hey mutt, whats up man?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Feeling pretty good. Actually, it appears all that running and hiking did pretty well for me. I think in my late 50's with fullblown RMSF and then to have an emergency cholecystectomy, I think being in relatively good shape kept me from, let us say, a different outcome.

Better every day. Did my 4 cases this am, and office this afternoon.

I think I am doing much better than Jerry Jones this morning....MUCH better.

cv said...

@Mutt

When I made the reference to having something "tossed back in my face"...

It WAS NOT YOU that was doing the tossing (sorry if that wasn't clear)...

So - your only "guilt" there (which I was not trying to imply) happened to be by association...

You happen to hang with a group that seems to like to fight everyone else's battles for them... THAT part of it isn't really your fault...

I suppose that's what happens when the mentality is a COLLECTIVE mentality and the players don't seem to be encouraged to stray from the groupthink...

In certain cases, you end up getting DEFENDED (or used as an example) even if you yourself never signed up for that treatment...

McFearless said...

good to hear Bruce.

Leftback said...

Bruce, LB wishes you the best.

Leftback said...

JA analysis = Jackass Analysis? LB likes that.

I-Man said...

Ditto, get well, Doc.

karen said...

there is NO WAY i could watch this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/maria-bartiromo-wall-street-2010-10

cv said...

@Mutt

Lastly here (now that I'm seeing your comments split up in pieces)...

I think that answers your original question as to WHY a comment seemed to get stuck, or not appear...

It happens when the text is too long (too many words)... That's happened to me in the past as well, so I had to break something down into several pieces...

Anyway... One mystery solved...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks to all. I am almost 100%. And Leftback, I got one of those pictures of the queen and put it on the ceiling over my bed, the same way you did, but somehow it just didn't do for me what it does for you.

But I'm working on it!

McFearless said...

it could be jackass or James Altucher

but really, is there a difference?

I'm sticking with it, dual meanings!

cv said...

Wasn't CV saying over a year ago (way back at TBP - in those days), that it would only be a matter of time before they staryed rolling out 50 year issuance?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-50-year-note-test-succeeds-bond-upsized-250-million-13-billion

McFearless said...

CV,

kiss every pension goodbye, that's all I'm saying, just wave goodbye, nice knowin ya.

karen said...

ben, exactly what I was going for with the JA.. it's the only name I use for that guy, as you know.

this day is flying by like yesterday!

karen said...

bruce! you are so funny! glad you are better.. what an unexpected nightmare.. but curable at least!

McFearless said...

it really is Karen, was just sitting here thinking that, it's going to be Thanksgiving before I draw a turkey with my hand.

McFearless said...

rimm up 8%...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Since I have been slacking the last two weeks, what is the general feeling by you guys as to the recent rise in the 10 year? Are rates going to keep on rising or what?

karen said...

bruce: BreakingNews

Tornado warning issued in areas of Middle Tennessee; twister projected to form near Watertown by 1:10 local time - National Weather Service

McFearless said...

Bruce, big picture (as in investor, not trader), before all is said in done, I think the 10 year goes much higher in price/lower in yield but I'm with leftback in the near term, I wouldnt' want a lot of govies in the portoflio:

1. Charts look bearish
2. Sentiment is way too bullish, and small speculators have piled in according to COT, that's "dumb money" put another way
3. I think it would surprise a lot of folks to see stocks AND govt bonds going down, many cries of "the market is broken" should follow.

as an aside, I see a lot of momo mutual funds putting out papers hyping the "belly of the curve" which screams.....danger, danger!

72bat said...

bruce -
good you didn't self treat ;^) except to be in good physical condition to begin with.
howzit with 2 cases of rmsf here at s-c, nic also, right

I-Man said...

Sniff, sniff....

I and I smells something...

McFearless said...

it's the JA Analysis, smells awful

Thoughts on GroupThink said...

Cvienne (1:38) - No Big Deal as you are aware it is often difficult to verbally, convey thoughts and ideas to groups of people, when they can see our body language and hear our voice inflections.

It can be… NO IS…10x more difficult to convey thoughts in writing and even more so when it is done in blog atmosphere when things change so quickly. So with that being said, your morning audible was not very clear on the reference as I was the only one you referenced, so the logical conclusion was you meant me.

Collective mentality…Now that is an interesting concept, I am not quit sure what you mean by groupthink either. But I will give it a try.

Thoughts on Groupthink; People are social beings, we are drawn to other people, especially if they look like us. White English speaking people tend to gravitate toward white English speaking people. Mexicans who speak English would spend more time with other Mexican people who speak English and so on and so forth…….I think it would be fair most people here would agree with that, if not please let me know so I can further clarify.

If we are in agreement that people tend to drift toward those they have traits in common, then it would be fair to say they tend to drift toward common ideas and principles. An example FF is big on this site and discussed often – A commonality among several.

If we are in agreement with that, then we (Collectively) all participate in group think. So I am not 100% certain why you (apparently) are making “Groupthink” a bad thing.

As far as “you end up getting DEFENDED (or used as an example) even if you yourself never signed up for that treatment...” I appreciate that, but in the end, my handle is Mangy Mutt – Defend or use me as an example to your (Not you specifically, I mean in general) hearts content, but I can defend myself just fine.

Thanks Again

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

uh-oh for bat, too! BreakingNews

Tornado warning issued in areas of Central Ohio until 2:15 p.m. ET; twister could accompany 75-mph-plus winds http://bit.ly/drQkbF

Leftback said...

Bruce

I know you have been out for a bit. LB sold all his govies and now holds only a few junkies, and is long stocks for the time being at least.

That said, the long bond is so weak today, LB almost feels like buying some, for a trade, of course, perhaps just ahead of New Home Sales.

Leftback said...

MM,

All comments welcome, but it helps the flow if we are all concise during trading hours.

One can and will wax loquacious after the close, of course.

Spliting up Posts said...

Cvienne - Yes that was probably the first post was too long and that is why I split it up into two, but in case it got stuck or something, I wanted to bring it to your attention first.

Mutt

Leftback said...

Bruce

If I had a picture over my bed it would be Karen, not QE2 !

McFearless said...

these are so pricey....
CAT, BA, DD

karen said...

well, i will mention that the trend for TBT is solidly up on the 13/34 ema chart..

Thought I was on topic said...

Leftback - My bad, I thought I was refrencing something Cvienne said, so I thought it was on topic. I did not mean to throw anyone off their game.

Mangy Mutt

Leftback said...

2s10s at 225 bps, well above the lows of ~200 bps. That's "growthier" according to the bankers.

karen said...

zerohedge

The mother of all short squeezes may be upon dollar shorts soon

Bruce in Tennessee said...

And yes, guys, we have heard the tornado warnings. Should be here in about 45 minutes. Should be an interesting afternoon.

Leftback said...

Karen,

Yes, the trend for TLT is down and TBT is up. Any association I have with Treasuries will be a one-night stand from now on. My dividend stocks will be my LTR - and you of course, angel.

McFearless said...

you are such a player leftback, all those one night stands....

karen said...

"Many investors are looking for any yield they can, and this bond would generate about $612.50 per $10,000.00 invested per year in taxable income. If this Goldman Sachs bond were to go 50-years without being called, that $10,000.00 would generate taxable income of $30,625.00 spread out over the full length to maturity."

http://247wallst.com/2010/10/26/a-50-year-debt-offering-from-goldman-sachs-gs-ms-jpm/

72bat said...

k -

thanks for the concern
watched on the weather radar as the long narrow front, a squall line hundreds of miles long north-south, moved thru west to east rather quickly. no reports of major damage locally. impressive rain downpour though, drumming on the roof

Fair To Say said...

Leftback (2:13) - I guess it would be fair to say my (2:11) was not part of the proper Groupthink...LOL :)

Mangy Mutt

Jennifer said...

You can thank me for the impressive RIMM move...I bought puts yesterday on the breakout because I didn't think it would "stick." I'm a good contrary indicator that way.

72bat said...

storm front on weather radar

Jennifer said...

The weather here is as riled up as the tempers were on the blog this morning:-) Murphy's law -- windiest day is always also garbage day.

Leftback said...

MM - Actually it's nothing to do with groupthink but some of us have short attention spans, during trading hours, so it is short and sweet posting for most of us.

Leftback said...

Per Todd Harrison (and others):

FX and commodity volatility tend to precede fixed income and equity volatility. Sort of a red sky in the morning, trader's warning.

Short and Sweet said...

Leftback - Yup I know that story, at least the short part....

Mutt

More on Groupthink said...

Leftback (2:29) - But if soem of us have short attention spans wouldn't that be part of the collective Groupthink?

Mangy Mutt

McFearless said...

Mutt,

I think what leftback is trying to say is; lets save the groupthink discussion for after 4 pm EST.

McFearless said...

EXAS having a big day again today

karen said...

http://economycollapse.blogspot.com/2010/10/iraq-vet-wikileaks-tells-truth.html

McFearless said...

I'm really interested in DZZ now.

72bat said...

mm -
good to hear your voice here.
per mcfearless, except on exceedingly slooooow days, we try, not always successfully, to be short & pithy (as opposed to short & pissy?)
:-}

McFearless said...

karen, was there a volatility sonar report from top step today? what's up with VIX?

McFearless said...

and mutt,

please don't mistake what Im saying up there, as I seem to need to clarify so many comments, I'll be more than happy to have some detailed discussion on that stuff later tonight, but it's trading time man!

Leftback said...

Yes, when it's trading time, we stay focused on the ticks and don't take the pith out of each other....

I-Man said...

This last hour is gonna be a whirlwind...

Anonymous said...

"Thoughts on Groupthink; People are social beings, we are drawn to other people, especially if they look like us. White English speaking people tend to gravitate toward white English speaking people. Mexicans who speak English would spend more time with other Mexican people who speak English and so on and so forth…….I think it would be fair most people here would agree with that, if not please let me know so I can further clarify."

I'm about as white as they come and I have plenty of Hispanic friends--and not just because I like the way they cook.

mcHAPPY said...

Bruce,

GLad to hear you are doing better.

McFearless said...

for leftback<

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/26/autos/bmw_recall/

karen said...

ben, can't find a sonar report, sorry!

karen said...

Debating whether commercial real estate is back in business, with Hessam Nadji, Marcus & Millichap Research and Advisory Services.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1625413863&play=1

I-Man said...

Some pretty smart fuckers...

Wish we didnt have the same charts.

All is good with me said...

Ben - It's all good for me and no need to clearify, although I do understand that when we type our thoughts out into writen words it can be difficult to portay our true means - Therefor even the most innocent of comments can be mis-construde.

Normally I try and read between the lines and thing I am fairly good at it, other times it is best to ask for clarification.

Like this morning, had I not asked Cvienne what he meant by me tossing it in his face, I would still be under the impression he meant me.

Unfortunatly it seems like we sometimes spend too much time trying to clarify our comments.

Best of luck to you on the rest of the trading day.

Mangy Mutt

Leftback said...

LB likes people of all origins, languages, shapes and sizes. Especially if they are smart.

but most especially if they are as lovely as Karen...

Ben, my effing BMW broke down last weekend. The usual electrical issues. But it will be OK after the effing computer is fixed.

karen said...

that's a MUST watch video i posted at 2:56..

72bat said...

cv -
i kno', right? u said it first!
Marc Faber Expects Market Sell Off On QE2 Announcement

Leftback said...

MM - welcome any time, but think like "162 character text message", until after the close. Most of us don't have very complex thought processes during the day, plus I have a Y chromosome as well.

72bat said...

lb -
they say the same thing at the exchanges after a flash crash, right?

karen said...

On #BloombergTV: Marc Faber Interview on U.S. Stocks, Fed Policy http://ow.ly/2ZMIt

Good Food said...

Anonymous (2:53) - That is because good food transends all cultures :)

Yes homemade Mexican food is some of the best.

I too am White - Although I hate that term - But see past peoples color and basic ideology.

Most people seem to stop when people or groups of people do not meet their critiria, but for some reason I have always been able to see around that.

EAT MORE TACOS.

Mangy Mutt

Leftback said...

Effing computers...

karen said...

one more i'm watching now:

"The Strategy Session" hosts and Scott Rechler, of RXR Realty, discuss whether REITs are overvalued at this level. Note: REIT segment starts at 4:30 minute point on the clip.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1625466262&play=1

72bat said...

re computers, not y chromosome

I-Man said...

Straight jugular if they gun it now...

Quite the death trap for shorts right there... well played, actually, by someone with no fucking conscience.

Glad I held back, or it coulda been one of those "fill-immediate full clip out" trades I love so much.

162 characters said...

Leftback - Got you and no problem with that, besides I get confused with most words that are more the 2 sylables.

Mutt

McFearless said...

Leftback,

that blows, and I know the feeling.

REIT said...

Karen - From where I sit, there are a lot of buildings that are empty and have remained empty for well over a year.

I personally do not see the growth to fill them, in addition my wife if a manager at a local bank, they have been hit pretty hard with underperforming loans both construction and commercial.

Do you see things differently in your part of the world?

Thanks
Mutt

McFearless said...

Faber has become consensus...wonder how long that lasts, it's got to bother him. His letters earlier in the year were hilarious. He got done with the Barron's roundtable and realized he had made many similar forecasts as several other people there, in his very next letter he stated as much and then changed a bunch of them around.

McFearless said...

underperforming loans

just sit back and watch wilmington trust blow up folks....not much longer now.

karen said...

MUST watch that second cnbc video too.. scary stuff about the spx and fab five.. the reit index has outperformed all the other majors.. up 90% in last 18 months ???

valued at 16% valued above NAV..

GEEZE.. Scott Rechler is ONE SMART PERSON.

karen said...

Mutt, I do not see things differently! I'm waiting for you know what to hit the fan..

Leftback said...

CRE is the one thing that the FED will go to the mat to protect.
Just an observation.

CIM being whacked today after earnings yesterday, that's a high risk, high divvy play for those with a taste for yield.

Faber has been correct time after time on the dollar turns. This is a market that is being led around by the d*ck by currencies wearing lingerie and high heels.

mcHAPPY said...

Just noticed something on the one hour, 30 minute, 15 min, 10 min, 5 min. Unfortunately doesn't work on the 2 minute with two separate couple hundredths of point overlap. Anyone who cares, check out the 12:25 candle on the 5 minute charts from yesterday (October 25). Seems to be some serious resistence here. We should know if it could possibly mean anything very quickly as we are right at that level and have been knocking on it all day.

CV or Ra: any fibo relationship going on with 1187 range?

I know what :) said...

Karen - Part of me is sad, ok most of me is sad that you are not seeing things much different over there then over here.

Unfortunatly, TPTB have done nothing to stop the shit storm that is brewing - Except feed the TBTF, which is only going to add to the you know what...

Mutt

mcHAPPY said...

Of course, I have learned my lesson with squiggles in the past.

AmenRa said...

Dollar up, oil up, TNX up, TYX up, gold flat, VIX up, SPX up (or at least trying). Something's amiss.

McFearless said...

Fab Five?

lol.....you guys know about the "nifty fifty"....right?

mcHAPPY said...

Looking like it was nothing and we in fact have another ABC going off yesterday's highs.

I-Man said...

This is such bullshit.

The 1min timeframe is giving the I alot of gray hairs.

McFearless said...

Karen,

isnt' it interesting REITS are out selling at a premium to NAV, BND, otoh, will trade at a discount to NAV most days as just one counter example.

AmenRa said...

mcHAPPY

Monthly 3LB reversal price (1-1-8-6-6-9). Sorry about that. Can't give the algos any clues.

McFearless said...

also, I've kept you all in the loop on some of the private reit's I've followed, the are still right now making huge cuts in asset valuation assumptions.

Leftback said...

Something's amiss.

Volume, no volume at all.

I-Man said...

And thats just from watching!

DL said...

"Effing computers".

The ones that control the stock market, or the ones that control BMW's...?

karen said...

the real fact of the matter is that IYR, GLD, SPX, abc and xyz, all moved in the same direction at the same time.. thanks to BB's madness.

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