Morning Audibles

Dream Teams... Hmmm... Let me mull that one over for awhile...


The Celtics exposed every bit of the "Dream Team" weakness 88-80 last night in the Garden

What is it with America's fascination with the concept of a "dream team"?... A collection of self proclaimed righteous individuals who band together and think they can beat back humanity by the simple virtue that they enjoy playing together, and perceive their cause to be just...

Here are some famous DREAM TEAMS in recent memory...

(2008)

Obama Names his Economic "Dream" Team 



Which morphed into a nightmare...
Obama's Recovery Summer

I suppose the problem is, we're all just too pessimistic, or impatient... In 2008, Americans were bored and impatient, and wanted "change"... That dream team didn't work, so now are you telling me that they want this?


What, in fact, do they want? What should they do? Who should they BELIEVE in?
 
CV says that the BELIEVING should start with believing in yourself (& that DOESN'T mean the belief in yourself that is simply "gifted" by what society gives you, or "layered on" to you because you've wedged yourself into a little security blanket existence where things are done by committee rather than ingenuity)... If you are incapable of doing that (believing you can accomplish things ON YOUR OWN - if put to the test), then you're hardly going to be equipped to have the creativity to choose a representative government that is satisfactory... If "choosing" a government, as a way of life, is even your thing...

Further on the Celtic topic... Other CELTIC legends and myths come to mind here...
 
Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man, that he didn't already have...
 

Sometimes late when things are real And people
share the gift of gab between themselves
Some are quick to take the bait And catch
the perfect prize that waits among the shelves

But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have
And Cause never was the reason for the evening
Or the tropic of Sir Galahad.
So please believe in me...

As for Sir Galahad himself... Well, in his journey (whereby he managed to catch that "perfect prize"), it was mostly just he & his horse anyway...


The ocean is a desert with its life underground
And the perfect disguise above
Under the cities
Lies a heart made of ground
But the humans will give no love

---
"Night after night your horse treads down alone


The sere damp fern, night after night you sit

Holding the bridle like a man of stone,

Dismal, unfriended: what thing comes of it?"

Sir Galahad, a Christmas Mystery

272 comments:

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Anonymous said...

I think I particularly like this blog because there's so much skepticism here, a quality I like for its own sake but which I think is also pretty healthy if you're trying not to lose money.

As I sit on my little pile of cash year after year, my daily visits here have made me feel a lot calmer about missing out on speculative moves in various asset classes. I'm sure that left to my own devices I would have capitulated exactly at all the wrong times.

Plus the regular posters here are so interesting and charming that I've even been inspired to learn to read charts and pick up insights about things such as sentiment, so hopefully I'll be better prepared to identify investment opps in future.

Thanks to everyone, Bertie

Anonymous said...

I see Jeremy Grantham is talking about forestry as his best sector pick for the medium term.
Oh Jack Crooks (Black Swan) yesterday put up a long term DOW chart showing a nice head and shoulders formation, targeting I forget where but somewhere pretty damn low. And he was promoting the USD case.
Bertie

Anonymous said...

Goodness, I do log on at the loneliest hours.

Well g'nite all, must get my beauty rest.
B.

cv said...

BR...

In typical "love-fest" mood...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/modestly-bullish-again/#comments

QUOTE

Barron’s online has an absurdly nice column about yours truly:

IN RECENT YEARS, MONEY manager Barry Ritholtz has emerged as one of cable television’s most entertaining and compelling talking heads on topics of importance to investors.

But a visitor to Ritholtz’s understated offices in midtown Manhattan won’t find TV sets blaring CNBC or Fox Business News. According to Ritholtz, the CEO and research director of Fusion IQ, the quiet makes it easier for him and his team of researchers to think clearly and analytically about the markets.

In other words, he prefers not having to hear the kind of chatter that he and other market mavens routinely provide.

“With television, the sentiment virus will infect you,” says Ritholtz, who turned 49 last week. “What television does is best is pass along the emotions of the market.”

Along with his partner, Kevin Lane, Ritholtz uses a combination of fundamental and technical investment measures to pick stocks in the separately managed accounts of his private clients. Starting with only $15 million three years ago, Fusion now runs close to $500 million in private client money.

Ritholtz is also willing to make big-asset bets and most of them have been on target in the last two years. His market calls, way with words and outsized personality have helped him develop a following for his “Big Picture” blog. And his well-received book on the financial crisis, Bailout Nation, is now out in a paperback printing.

Shortly after the Dow hit its all-time high in October 2007, Ritholtz, a lawyer by training, began loading up on cash and he remained bearish on stocks through 2008. He thus spared his small base of clients much of the horror of the resulting meltdown in the stock market.

He says he began loading up in stocks again around the time the market bottomed in March 2009, because he and his team noticed that almost every stock in the S&P 500 was trading below its 200-day moving average – a contrarian bullish-technical sign that ended up paying off.”

spoonman said...

How ya like dem Celts? Eat it, Lebron.

cv said...

Umm... let's break that down a little...

IN RECENT YEARS, MONEY manager Barry Ritholtz has emerged as one of cable television’s most entertaining and compelling talking heads on topics of importance to investors.

Say's WHO?... The opinion of one author... BR himself is fond of trying to use multiple data points before reaching a conclusion on something... But of course, if ONE PERSON thinks he's entertaining... Then that issue is settled...

But a visitor to Ritholtz’s understated offices in midtown Manhattan won’t find TV sets blaring CNBC or Fox Business News.

Congrats Barry... You have CNBC & Fox turned off... I hereby nominate you for POTUS...

Along with his partner, Kevin Lane, Ritholtz uses a combination of fundamental and technical investment measures to pick stocks in the separately managed accounts of his private clients. Starting with only $15 million three years ago, Fusion now runs close to $500 million in private client money.

What is "distingiushing" about that that also dozens if not hundreds of other hedge funds in Manhattan and around the world couldn't proclaim?

Ritholtz is also willing to make big-asset bets and most of them have been on target in the last two years.

Where's the proof? Oh yeah, I'm sure the QUANTIFICATION of that number is coming along with the report showing us how the 2009 stimulus package "created or saved" 3-4 million jobs...

---

Look BR, everybody loves you (despite all the hipocracy)... While this kind of fluff is nice to get a bunch of THUMBS UP responses from your "groupthinkers"... Please! The sugar coating is giving the rest of us a cavity...

AmenRa said...

I see selling of gold and buying of the 2yr. Need to see what TIP will do. AUDJPY, oil, silver all down over one percent.

1-1-8-6-6-9 is smiling.

cv said...

@karen

FXI/FXP today is an enjoyable watch...

Charlie Sheen said...

I am back in vintage form.

Hookers and coke, trashing hotel rooms.
That's the way you do it son.

Lord Blankfiend said...

That was a great night, Charlie. The thing with the mirror and the swing was especially good.

By the way, I have your wallet.

karen said...

morning.. overslept! still have to read morning audibles more carefully.. we had a little aussie surprise last night.. a lot of dumping going on the AM.. JCG off a point.. UUP not above 22.60 is a disappointment..

ben22 said...

some short term counts were looking for 1173 today before further bounce

karen said...

hot money in the nasdaq??? wow! is all i can say..

Leftback said...

Maybe all we get for now in the Bucky Bounce. Time for a counter-trend move. LB just bought some Treasuries, for a trade. New Homes up next.

karen said...

the 10 ema is 1178.. for the past two months, whenever the spx taps into it, it bounces..

karen said...

TBT in breakout.. tho the trend was clearly up.. i pointed out yesterday.

cv said...

@ben22

Well I-Man probably likes that (9:54) number...

The GANNN work out that way...

I'm still not really playing what I consider to be these MINOR moves...

I've stated my case... QE2 "sell the news"... But we have to GET TO THE NEWS first...

Trying to keep myself entertained in other ways meanwhile...

ben22 said...

karen,
lots of shorts in tech, probably helps explain some of that, just seems the net is more eager to buy the dips (obvious I realize)

karen said...

briefing.com.. S&P futures vs fair value: -7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.30. Futures suggest that the stock market is headed for a firmly lower start in the face of another batch of better-than-expected earnings from a bevy of widely held firms. The dollar remains a primary driver of buying and selling in the broader market, but its pullback from its morning high has not been enough to improve the tone of premarket trade as it continues to sport a modest lead over competing currencies.

I-Man said...

Great tune, Horse with No Name...

Excellent post, CV.

karen said...

CV.. maybe that tnx/spx chart will finally resolve!!! yields higher and the spx lower..

I-Man said...

Good eye McFear...

ES low @ 1172.75

Leftback said...

tnx/spx chart will finally resolve

the distortion is clearly a function of QE.

cv said...

I like REGGIE MIDDLETON here...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-ratcheting-balance-sheet-risk-record-levels-more-so-top-bubble-many-thought-enronesq

---

Synthesis... Of COURSE Goldman is ratcheting up again...

The main thing that CV has learned in this crisis is... People will NEVER learn, they'll CONTINUE to get fleeced by things, and they'll CONTINUE to wonder why...

karen said...

Great Michael Lewis: But the new game of cat and mouse raises a simple, even naive question: Why do these giant Wall Street firms want so badly to make huge bets with their shareholders’ capital?

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5QDE9YbzOTQ

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/michael-lewis-exposes-goldmans-prop-trading-flow-clothing

cv said...

@karen (10:04)

ditto...

karen said...

It's getting cold out there for the FED:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-calls-fed-mother-all-ponzi-schemes-says-30-year-bond-market-ending

karen said...

uup up! finally above 22.60..

Mohamed El-Erian said...

Bill wants to buy some cheap Ts when he says that.

Sugar High, baby.

Cold Steel said...

I am lurking.

Charlie Sheen said...

My head hurts.

karen said...

This is exactly what i believe: "Keep It Simple

There’s a simple, straightforward way for the GAO to construe the Dodd-Frank language, and it would reform Wall Street in a single stroke: to ban any sort of position-taking at the giant publicly owned banks. To say, simply: You are no longer allowed to make bets in the same stocks and bonds that you are selling to investors.

If that means that Goldman Sachs is no longer allowed to make markets in corporate bonds, so be it. You can be Charles Schwab, and advise investors; or you can be Citadel, and run trading positions. But if you are Citadel you will be privately owned. And if you blow up your firm, you will blow up yourself in the bargain." Lewis in Bloomberg

Jennifer said...

CV -- re: "sell the news"/getting the news out -- I heard somewhere this morning, not sure if it was the TV or the radio, that some Fed guy was quoted as saying that QE2 would not be "shock and awe" but rather something small, at least initially, more like 1-200 billion. Since the market is looking for 500 billion to a trillion, that's not enough. Sorry no quote, haven't found it yet. But, that might be the kick off to selling the news.

Leftback said...

I thought you liked to KISS...?

ben22 said...

CV, 10:08

people are going to get what they asked for.

@I,

on that same count our next move is a bounce to 1189, a move after that back down to 1180-1177 pivot by 11/3 and then up to new highs.

Jennifer said...

I have the subscription service at Evil Speculator. He has coded his own indicator across several time frames...not really sure what goes into it, but I find it fascinating to watch. There are very interesting fractal aspects to it...basically, the daily indicator is currently tracing a pattern that is almost identical to the April pattern (not too surprising, since so is SPX) but there is room for one more slightly higher high if the pattern continues to match.

ben22 said...

Lewis has really been pounding the table about firms being privately owned since Liar's Poker.

i basically agree with him because in the end what he's talking about is trying to create the proper incentives.

Jennifer said...

McF - CAT finally below the 20! (And the most forgiving trendline I can draw.)

AmenRa said...

LB

It's back. Selling of TIP and gold. Buying of 2yr. Fallout shelter time?

ben22 said...

I can see it, I'd short it again but the counts I'm rolling with still point up and I still only see the down waves as corrective so far.

Jennifer said...

And...for a laugh...today my husband took my pants with him to the gym and had to make an extra trip home before work to collect pants that fit.

karen said...

tickerguy
@zerohedge Too many shorts, and Cramer pumping that turd. I can't wait for it to flush
less than a minute ago via TweetDeck in reply to zerohedge


zerohedge
Netflix has officially gone apeshit

Repesentative Government said...

Morning Cvienne and all – Great day, Boise State won and for those of you who can stomach to sit through basket brawl, I hoped you enjoyed your games.

Cvienne, your morning audiles you say; “If "choosing" a government, as a way of life, is even your thing...” this can be read in several ways. The way that came to the forefront (And if anyone sees it different please let me know) is that we should not choose our government, but should allow our government to choose us.

Also; “If you are incapable of doing that (believing you can accomplish things ON YOUR OWN - if put to the test), then you're hardly going to be equipped to have the creativity to choose a representative government that is satisfactory”

We are a nation of butchers and bakers and candle stick makers. In fact (unless I am mistaken) that is what our county is based off of, that we collectively draw our strengths to form a “representative government” those representative then set the rules we allow them to set. This IS the basic principle of our founding fathers… Is it not?

The form of government that our nation came from was where one person made the rules, changed the rules and controlled the people and their thoughts, people in general do not like that, yes they can and do grow comfortable with "Being Ruled" especially if they feel they “belong” to the ruling class, but in the end King George (or who ever) could take their rights away too.

We can not all be leaders, but a leader can only lead if others “Choose” to let him/her “represent” them, is this not true.

Thanks, this looks like it will be a good subject to discuss and I look forward to your reply.

Mangy Mutt

Leftback said...

It's back. Selling of TIP and gold. Buying of 2yr. Fallout shelter time?

Nope. Nobody buying 3 month bills, 13 bps on that one, hasn't budged. This is just a little shake and bake before the EoY melt up. Sorry to be all Permabull on you all, but you know I have been on the money with USTs.

1172-1175 was my target zone for any dumpage. Watch out for the Bear trap here, you know who just loves to come in here.

LB snacked on a high dividend stock again.

karen said...

i can't wait to see where nflx finally lands, however.

ben22 said...

deja vu folks....I'm gonna put this out there in hopes that it just falls apart but look at the form today, spike down for another first leg relief bounce back up above 1180, now the third leg down again to 1173-1176 range, a-b-c corrective, might end up looking like 10/19 all over again....seems like Neely's wave 4.

karen said...

ben, it's different this time!! (LOL!)

Leftback said...

Yeah, we get another wave up in "ASSETS" here, for sure.

ben22 said...

I have no skin in the game on nflx so this is worthless but my take: that company isn't even going to exist by 2020.

an $8billion + valuation now for a company that rents movies

c'mon man!

ben22 said...

all I know is the indicies will lead

ben22 said...

CV,

people could have hosed me in FF this week if they wanted, I didn't have high waiver priority and could have not had an RB to start.

can't believe nobody stuck me.

karen said...

Night of the Living Fed is going viral..

Charlie Sheen said...

It was overblown.

I mean, I got blown, and it's over.

ben22 said...

my own little anecdotal observation, retails animal spirits are being aroused again.

karen said...

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/27/cop-half-of-hamp-permanent-mortgage-mods-will-redefault

cv said...

@Jennifer

100-200 billion (or ANY incremental approach) would almost be laughable...

The point I've been making (for, going on a month now) has been...

IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THE ANNOUNCED NUMBER IS... OR IT'S SCHEDULE OF IMPLEMENTATION

Let's just say, it's 'a jablillion dollars'...

The market would want 2 jablillion...

If it's 10, they'll want twenty...

Bernanke is a donkey being led around by a carrot (it's not the other way around)...

This is 2007 (when rate cutting cycle began)...

- Market gets what it wants (rate cut and PROMISE OF MORE rate cuts)...
- Reality hits (December 2007 FOMC meeting), sell the news...
- Crisis ensues (Soc Gen, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, et al)...
- Threats are made as to the SYSTEMIC RISK of it all...
- New politicians enter the scene with their "asses" on the line to right the ship...

Greedy bankers get a fresh pile of dough to play with until the next round occurs...

Someday... I suppose... It will all end...

Until that time... we get to hear how the Barry Ritholtzes of the world, with their FUSION CAPITAL models, CNBC's & FOXES all turned off, listening to their "inner voices" (saying do you want to be right or make money)...

got it all right...

And, of course, you can read about it everyday on the blog (where little wannabe blogetters show up and give BR their undying admiration without having any REAL thoughts on their own on the subject)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSTqXme9RCk

"At least I won't be unoriginal"

On Chuckles said...

Karen - My wife just told me he paid a prostitute $7000 - WOW, talk about over blown...

Mutt

karen said...

nflx might be one of the best short stories of all time.. someone is gonna make a bundle on that one..

cv said...

@ben22 (10:41)

The thought crossed my mind... But I [my team has] too many of my own needs to fill this week...

And I wanted to try and do it in a way that wouldn't KILL me on waiver priority...

Once again... I mulled it over, but had to strategize otherwise...

ben22 said...

you guys been following that COT site I linked?, their trade this week based on "smart money" movement was long natty....not bad so far.

I-Man said...

End of year melt up?

Its October...

One would do well to sell any retest of 1174 I and I would say.

karen said...

"With today’s large build, crude oil stockpiles are now at their highest point of 2010, and at a higher point relative to the historical average than at any other point this year."

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/27/drowning-in-crude.html

wunsacon said...

CV, of all the crap going on in the world, of all the shitheads who deserve criticism, why are so bothered by BR? Can you go a month without bashing him?

Hmmm...you might ask: why do I defend BR? Well, I learned a ton from him, Mish, Yves, and Calculated Risk. And if some of these people get favorable press and "go places", 'tis better that is happens to them than someone else.

cv said...

@Mutt (10:34)

I'm saying something much simpler...

What I'm NOT saying is that people shouldn't have the right to choose...

What I AM saying is that people who cannot look into themselves and have the faith that they could create a bright future (all on their own), are likely to end up making disappointing choices...

It's the notion of trying to ARTIFICIALLY MANUFACTURE a "sum is greater than the individual parts" utopia... That is fallacious...

I do believe that "sum is greater than the individual parts" entities can exist... But I'd argue that they occur, in nature, BY GRACE, & not BY MANIPULATION or HUMAN construct...

DIVINE things exist in their own realm... They're for humans to observe, enjoy, and be inspired by... They ought NOT be be attempted to assemble by human hands...

Leftback said...

Agreed. Barry taught everyone here a ton and caught shit from the media for years for his housing bear stance. Give the guy a break.

...and pass the Grey Poupon.

ben22 said...

the market has sort of a sideways frown look


awwwwwwwww.

Leftback said...

Ts catching a bid.

He said smugly....

cv said...

FWIW

CV is all for testing last weeks lows here...

We haven't had a lower WEEKLY candle print for awhile...

It's time...

Jennifer said...

Pains me to say it, but 1173 does seem to be the bottom of a channel on the hourly chart.

ben22 said...

still looks corrective at this point from my seat, the Vix and S&P closed green two days in a row...we were due for some carnage, I'm looking to cover the rest of the Q's now....ninja style, thanks market.

karen said...

bac, dead cat bounce? c, not so bouncy..

ben22 said...

speaking of bouncing, always loved this part:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbSsQR__bgE

cv said...

@wunsa

What you describe as "bashing BR" is something I'd categorize as completely different...

What I'm doing here is PROVIDING CONTRAST...

If I don't PROVIDE CONTRAST, who, may I ask, will?

Barry's bloggers? (no - the minute you dissent - you get moderated off the site)...

Other blogs? The only ones (besides myself), that I see holding his feet to the fire are Zero Hedge...

Look - I've given him credit for lots of things... But I don't OWE anybody anything...

In my business... FITNESS... Many of you don't know, but CV is truly a pioneer in the "shape of things" as they exist today... But do I go into the gym every day and walk around like a "know it all" who deserves the red carpet treatment every time I walk in a building?

Answer? NO... (if you interviewed most of the students who take my classes, I'm confident that they'd acknoledge that)...

So back to my point on CONTRAST...

What I hate about the media (in general) is that it LACKS contrast (because it is liberally biased in an aggregate sense)...

So I think it is appropriate for someONE to offer a dissenting voice... If you don't like my voice, then you're welcome (AS YOU DID), to tell me that it unnerves you and to supply a rebuttal as to WHY it unnerves you...

If nothing else, it provides ME the opportunity to CONTRAST myself (and my own personnae)...

As if to say... "OK people, do you want to know who CV is?... Well, I'm many things, but one thing that I'M NOT is TWSWB (and here's why)... So there's a piece to that puzzle...

karen said...

ben, I have all the characters (aka, action figures) to that..

karen said...

zerohedge

Portugal Budget Discussions Break Down, Government Collapse Imminent http://bit.ly/aXlzKL

Effing Computers said...

Leftback - How are things going with your car?

If you want to buy a Charger with ZERO oil pressure I will be happy to push the car over to your place.... I just hope my back doesn't go out.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

in many ways, BR turned into a complete AH.. I've pointed it out myself.. Still, there is good content on his blog.. tho not necessarily original to Barry.. He brings in some great people.. and I also appreciate that he puts the good stuff front and center..

karen said...

AH is not After Hours, laughing.

ben22 said...

one of my all time favs Karen, I love watching movies that time of year, especially It's a Wonderful Life.

karen said...

There is nothing wrong with NOT READING every comment on this thread, btw.. Do you think I read the FF ones??

Which reminds me.. I need to go back the morning audibles..

I-Man said...

Still not convinced that we wont see more waves down today...

This may be it for a few minutes, but the bottom should come in a sharp V if its going to hold.

And you'll know the volume when you see it...

Until then, it LOOKS corrective...

Jennifer said...

Ben -- most annoying when NBC bought the rights to Its a Wonderful Life...now it is only on once or twice in December, instead of multiple channels every night.

cv said...

@wunsa

Besides... You shouldn't get carried away with BR...

I spend a lot of time "bashing" (your term, not mine)...

- Obama
- Bernanke
- Geithner
- Summers
- The effing Buffalo Bills
- Wade Phillips

Hell - I even bash my own Ravens when they put together a half assed effort...

My POV is (as a person who places himself in front of a live group of people every single day for about the last 30 years - to be judged)...

If you can't stand dissenting POV's, you're probably better suited in another line of work...

That's never been a problem for me... & that's why I don't need to waste an entire blog thread discussing how to go off into some remote and secret location so as to REMOVE unwanted elements or opinions...

Jennifer said...

Thoughts/opinions on the rumors I've seen out there about potential for 401k confiscation?

Jennifer said...

Karen -- that Portugal stuff won't be Euro positive.

Leftback said...

EEM sitting on support here. One more round of dollar degradation....

Do agree with Karen's read of the TLT charts, BTW. Just felt like the fixed income guys might want to grab some safety today. It's a RENTAL.

JNK, HYG, and the tasty divvies are holding up well.

Leftback said...

Thoughts/opinions on the rumors I've seen out there about potential for 401k confiscation?

Let's keep the tin foil in the kitchen, eh?

BR Bashing said...

Cvienne - I do not go to TBP much any more (Especially since most of you have either left or been hard modid) But anther resean, I do not go is because I find very little pertanent.

Yes he puts up charts, but it seems often times he does not explain (At the time) how he is reading them, but days. weeks, months later he will refer back to the chart and say "See, I told you so" To me that is BS.

If you (Not you specifically)are going to predict the future, say so before hand not after.
Hell I can today I can tell you EXACTLY where the Titanic will sink and why.

But in all fairness, the few times I have been there it seems he does allow some discent and contrast from his point of view.

It seems to be that he tends to mod, people who do not want to stay on topic, granted, it is his "topic" but it is also his site.

Just my two cents

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

That might be my favorite 'morning audibles' yet, except that it had a sad ending.. : (

karen said...

BreakingNews (Power to the States!!)

N.J. governor confirms he is canceling tunnel from N.J. to New York City, nation's biggest public works project http://bit.ly/bYKaDy

Ass Hat Monkey said...

Karen - A few years ago a buddy and I worked for a guy who was WAY beyond an AH, so we started calling him an AHMonkey - It REALLY fit for him too.

Yes, BR does put up some intersting articles, but as you stated you can get most of those anywhere on the internet, but what gets me is he then referse back to them to say he made that call...

Hey that means your are correct, he is an AH.

Mangy Mutt

Ben22 said...

Jennifer,

that's a movie worth buying for the home collection.

the only great movie around that time that is played too much is A Christmas Story, they always have 48 hours straight of that one.

Lord Blankfiend said...

You guys should remember who the real AHs are.

Leftback said...

Karen,

Can we have a new icon? LB wants to get longer.

cv said...

@karen

The points you made at (11:28) are worth underlining...

See people... That's the DIFFICULTY for someone like CV...

To EXPRESS DISSENT (when there are also many things of value that the person in question brings to the table - which BR has always done, and still does)...

The problem is this...

All I ever hear are a chorus of "YAYS"... Hardly ever a "NAY"...

So what am I going to do? Just jump on the pile of "YAYS" and add another voice?... Or, could I just ferret out the flawed aspects and point those out (since hardly anybody else seems willing to do it)?

Look people... I know what this dynamic is all about... In REAL LIFE...

It never fails that when I'm up there in front of a class teaching... and 50 faces are staring at me... My mind tends to get fixated on the ones who I can JUST TELL aren't enjoying themselves as much as the rest of the people...

But it pays dividends, in the long run, to try and understand what their motivation is... I can MOSTLY tell you all the things that I know I do right...

Those people help me to identify what I'm doing WRONG...

I'm sorry they're not having as good of a time as the rest of the people... But I'm thankful for their DISSENT (in a convoluted way)...

ben22 said...

I'm not sure any washington parasite has the skin to confiscate capital like that, people would go nuts.

I wouldn't rule it out, but there isn't much to indicate today that's a near term threat.

AmenRa said...

Looks like a lot of dip buying with the PC Ratio under 1 and TRIN under 1. Will the dips get dipped?

ben22 said...

also, the group at the Agenda for Shared Prosperity have already suggested several times to Obama that he do exactly that with 401k accounts, so it's hardly a tin foil hat thing...

cv said...

@jennifer

"Thoughts/opinions on the rumors I've seen out there about potential for 401k confiscation?"

My quick POV???

Nuclear option... It could happen... But would probably only be invoked under a NATIONAL SECURITY guise...

We'd probably have to be in a war (instead of the "skirmishes" we're in now)...

ben22 said...

today I'd be a lot more worried about which bank I was keeping my money in, it's not like most of them have any cash....but they sure do have a lot of mortgages.

Jennifer said...

Ben -- I made it to age 28 before I ever saw A Christmas Story. Some cousin on my husband's side was pointing out the similarities between Ralph and my husband, so I had to watch it. She was right -- my husband is that kid. Only older. I am not a movie buyer. I might have to reconsider for IABL, but generally I see no need to own movies. Netflix must hate me as much as I do them.

Leftback said...

LB will be back later, for now I'll hand over to Cold Steel.

Something Much Simpler said...

Cvienne – I think I understand what you are getting at, but once you start putting human nature in the mix NOTHING is simple.

And although your basic premise “that they occur, in nature, BY GRACE, & not BY MANIPULATION or HUMAN construct...” Does have some merit, I would strongly argue that we need (Proper) HUMAN construct. Nature it’s self proves this out.

Herds take care of there own, if an elephant cub looses it’s mother another elephant comes in to become it surrogate. But humans are much more complicated, some children are “GRACED” by being orphans, if we as humans do not “manipulate” or offer some Human construct, What should happened to that child?

Mangy Mutt

Leg Lamp said...

Jennifer - Have you bought a leg lamp yet :)

Mangy Mutt

I-Man said...

JAH I friggin love this guy:

"See both sides, define your risk and remember that when you’re running with the herd, it's often difficult to see the edge of the cliff."

-The Harrison

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/todd-harrison-stock-market-economy-federal/10/27/2010/id/30787

cv said...

@ben22

Another "angle" to the 401k confiscation topic is this (which didn't really rise to the surface in a PRE QE2 FOREVER dynamic)...

What is the actual "value" of those assets?

I mean... If the FED is sitting here artificially PROPPING UP assets... What is their value?

Ostensibly... Greenspan and Bernanke have acknowledged that "propping up" assets is a NEED to keep the economy moving (perhaps people keep spending if they perceive that their net worth is higher than it actually is)...

So what happens when that all becomes collective?

What's the VALUE of collective assets in terms of how it stimulates individual behavior?

I already have an answer to that one (but I'll keep it to myself)...

ben22 said...

I'm long for a trade....lol, I know.

Leftback said...

Toddo is THE MAN. See both sides, indeed.

Leftback said...

ben,

BUCKY is about to take a breather. Time for the exit rally in the leveraged dollar carry trades to commence.

cv said...

@Mutt

It is an error to BROADBRUSH the animal (instinct) kingdom by simply stating that in some cases "elephant cubs that lose their mothers are cared for by the rest of the herd"...

In other mammal realms, the WEAKEST are cast off...

Walrus herds, for example (and other types of herds as well), will allow a sick walrus to beach itself on the shore (where a hungry polar bear is waiting) in order for the bear to eat, leave, and then the reast of the walruses can come ashore...

Sometimes it is BEST, in fact, if the weakest elements become removed by process of natural selection, rather than lowering strength to accomodate the weakest links...

It's NOT MY JOB, though, to govern or legislate how walruses, buffaloes, or elephants handle themselves...

ben22 said...

CV,

well, that's sort of a deep discussion talking about the real value of everything, 401k's can be very diverse from company to company, what if someone has all their money in a stable value fund, for example, it all goes back to how credit worked it's way into the markets and the collectives thinking and now everyone calls it "money"....

when that all really matters I don't know, but it will.

Jennifer said...

MM -- re the leg lamp, he wants one!!! I vetoed. We must maintain some sense of style around here, amongst all the kids toys.

Leftback said...

Equities can't take a real pasting until after Treasuries have been taken out and shot. It's just the way things work. Why sell stocks to run to a 0.40% 2-year? Not happening until we get yields higher.

FED pushing investors out of Ts, into risk assets, as predicted.

ben22 said...

I really like TH, that guy is awesome. Would be great to have him as a mentor for six months or something.

ben22 said...

"Sometimes it is BEST, in fact, if the weakest elements become removed by process of natural selection, rather than lowering strength to accomodate the weakest links"

someone could stumble on that comment and not realize you were talking about herds....and not BAC, AIG, C, etc.

401k Confiscation said...

Cvienne - That is another aspect of artificial manufacture that needs to be taken into account.

We as a representative government do not elect those who will look out for the needs of the larger society, then the few will come in and find a way to artificially manufacture a way to take (Which they have been doing for years) the lively hood away from those how do not have the time or the means to see the manipulation.

Don’t you think we need as a society should at least attempt to preserve divine things and wouldn’t that take manipulation?

Mangy Mutt

Good Choice said...

Jennifer - You are a wise woman on vetoing the leg lamp.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

I-Man.. great Harrison post.. it expresses my own thots as well.. that's why i'm keeping my eye on gold and yields.. if the trend on gold changes from up to down, that will truly be something. trend on some key yields has already changed. the $tyx is headed up, $tnx is in the making but looks ready for a rest.

cv said...

@ben22

On 401K

You're right... IT'S COMPLICATED...

In an aggregate sense though... In a deflationary environment... One could logically say that they're probably WORTH LESS than their stated value (on paper)...

Then, you run into the everlasting conundrum...

If the ONLY WAY to prop up their value is to DEBASE the currency that their value is denominated in...

Again... What is their value?

Answer: Less than you think! (and I'd add to that the notion that ANY confiscation of these types of "assets" would almost surely come with some king of "implied promise" - as Social Security did - which we all know now is a ponzi operation)...

In all cases, we're down to the final question...

How long can the ponzi last?

karen said...

zerohedge

Paulson preparing to pair his BAC position with a long in Huggies

Governing Animal Behavoir said...

Cvienne – Zebras males also kill any young that they did not sire. The error is not BROADBRUSHING the animal kingdom, the error is in trying to establish a link between human nature AND the animal kingdom.

Butterflies do one thing, while birds do another and we can broadbrush any single aspect of their behavior to say humans are like that, well we as humans are NOT like that.

Human nature is more complex and trying to legislate how humans behave is it’s self an near impossible task, let alone trying to get a buffalo or elephant to even read the legistation, So I did not mean to make it sound like I thought you should attempt to govern them.

The premise I am making is that we are humans, we reason, we think, we have emotions – Some think and reason better then others and that is just the way life goes.
But if we do not try and have a reprehensive government that best suits the populace, don’t we then put ourselves at the mercy of the few?

Mangy Mutt

cv said...

@Mutt (12:06)

If you've been following my other arguments, you'll know that I'm not a big fan of any large form of government...

Stating that concept neither makes me an anarchist...

Let's put it this way... If the world were to collapse tomorrow, and I knew I was the only person on the block with a supply of food...

My first effort would be to share it with the people on my street, and to try to arrange some sort of collective mechanism for survival...

Perhaps that SMALL act could be viewed as a form of government...

But when these types of entities grow so large and bloated (as the case is today)... That they can only perpetuate through various PONZI type economic policies...

I think they actually become destructive towards their intended purpose...

Therefore, I would tend to have a problem with ANY philosophy that would think that all it needed was better management...

karen said...

that was a big drop in copper today.. and looking at a weekly chart.. more droppage expected.. everything is just so so so out of whack!

cv said...

"we are humans, we reason, we think, we have emotions"

and that makes us BETTER?

... and who, actually, ever said that mammals, or insects, plants, or any other organic life forms DON'T think?

Leftback said...

Karen,

Love your toes, but can you move the camera just a little...?

Cold Steel said...

I don't think.

Usually I just thrust.

Jennifer said...

Karen -- re: Copper, looked like a big drop, but remember, just a few days ago we were hoping that it would close below 49, now it can't get under 50.

Jennifer said...

Gotta go. Later, traders.

karen said...

credittrader

Nothing crazy yet but GDP-weighted European Sovereign risk is at two-week wides here (108bps) - watching for 120bps as 'panic' mode.

Me -reminds me of the macro man post the other day on basis swaps.. weird goings on being noted:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/10/basis-for-cross-border-re-leveraging.html

ben22 said...

Mutt, there is much new science that contradicts portions of what you are saying, especially here:


"....is that we are humans, we reason, we think, we have emotions"

Humans are very rarely reasoning when they are emotional, there is a lot of free neuroscience study of this online for review, later this week I'll share a study the SI performed on this subject, it's fascinating. Also, we do have a connection with animals that is most important for purpose of your discussion, it's called the limbic system, and leading studies are showing that it "hi-jacks" the thinking part of your brain when we perform certain activities, such as voting.

You've watched people get into extremely heated discussions about politics...are those based on emotion, or based on rationale? When you've walked into the voting booth in the past, did you feel a wave of rationality come over you, or was it something else?

I'd argue it's the herding emotion. Anyone that has ever traded against the herd understands the deep emotional feelings you have when doing so, often they are enough to overpower your rational thought.

This might help to get started:

http://science.education.nih.gov/supplements/nih2/addiction/guide/lesson1-1.htm


alright peeps, I'm out for the rest of the day, good luck.

I-Man said...

Later, SuperMom

:)

I-Man said...

Not you, Ben, Jenn.

cv said...

bennifer

karen said...

uup at hod again..

karen said...

Now I understand why Gross was pushing stocks last spring: "As part of adjusting to a new normal, Pimco began offering equity funds in April, and had inflows of about $1 billion, Pimco said in September. The firm moved into stocks to allow customers to diversify their holdings as the global economy changes and areas such as emerging markets outperform developed regions.

Pimco added to its mortgage holdings in September to 28 percent of assets, from 21 percent the prior month. Pimco also expanded its emerging-market debt to 12 percent last month, the highest since at least September 2006. Non-U.S. developed debt was unchanged at 6 percent.

The Total Return Fund, also the world’s biggest mutual fund, handed investors a gain of about 11.78 percent in the past year, beating about 76 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, managed $1.236 trillion of assets as of September."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEp0zbdt2OTE

cv said...

Gross talking his book?

Get right out of town!

karen said...

nflx epitomizes all the other run-ups we've had of late.. i'm enjoying its descent.. only up .63 now..

Better? No Different - Yes said...

Cveinne - It is clear that I have been following your aguement.

And I appologize for making you think, I was referning to you as the anit-Christ. I NEVER meant any such thing. I do not think so at all.

In your morning audile you argued "you're hardly going to be equipped to have the creativity to choose a representative government that is satisfactory..."

What I am saying is OUR nation, you, I, even Obama are part of a representative government. It takes all forms to compile it and it will never be a utupia.

But if we do not have a representative government then, we are left to be ruled by those who can usurp our rights, our freedoms.

Mangy Mutt

No Leg Lamps said...

Jennifer - You better not have left to go buy your husband a leg lamp...

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

yeah, i'm thinking the spx topped out on Monday.. time for a dose of reality..

karen said...

Breakout on $vix today, too..

karen said...

if dia break 109, things could get ugly fast.

Emotions said...

Ben – Thanks for the link, (It looks like you already left, I hope you get this though) but it does not in fact contradict “is that we are humans, we reason, we think, we have emotions" But solidifies it.

What the article appears to be saying is, we have reasoning, but we loose site of it when emotions come into play and our reasoning then goes out the door.

And that is why it is VERY difficult to talk about religion or politics – EVERYONE has an emotional opinion at it is when we rely on those that we tend to throw our reasoning out the window – That gets no argument from me.

My original point was we as a nation are a representative government a representative government is based on “reasoning” for the best of those being governed. I hope that makes since.

Thanks for the insight and I agree with you, only coming at it from a different angle.

Mangy Mutt

cv said...

"we are left to be ruled by those who can usurp our rights, our freedoms"

You can say that again...

Like passing a HC bill "just to see what's in it" (Nancy Pelosi), even though the majority of American at the time of its passage were against it...

---

I guess that's what you mean by the NEED to vote in representatives... because, SURE, they'd never usurp our "rights", would they?

What are "RIGHTS" anyway?

& why don't those damn lions respect the "rights" of gazelles?

Why don't galaxies respect the "rights" of other galaxies to exist in their own space and not collide?

Why doesn't water (or a glacier) respect the "right" of a mountain to stand tall and not be worn down?

You don't want me to go on do you? (your "right" to do so, is not mine to grant, or take away - unless you want to form a government that makes it a LAW to behave in that way)...

Then, of course, it's up to the individual is he or she wants to respect that law, or behave under a different code of conduct...

karen said...

from mrtopstep: We have had this sent to us a couple of times over the last week or so and we feel this worth passing along. With the holidays coming up, I can see where this could be a real problem. retweet if you would like..

The newest #virus circulating is the #UPS/Fed Ex/USPS Delivery Failure. You will receive an e-mail from UPS,#Fed Ex, or USPS along with a packet number. It will say that they were unable to deliver a package sent to you on such-and-such a date. It then asks you to print out the invoice copy attached. DON'T TRY TO PRINT THIS. IT LAUNCHES THE VIRUS! Pass this warning on to all your PC operators at work and home. This virus has caused Millions of dollars in damage in the past few days. #Snopes confirms that it is real. http://www.snopes.com/computer/virus/ups.asp

karen said...

nflx red.. gs next, i pray.

karen said...

22.70 on uup! a sight for sore eyes..

I-Man said...

Well, well, well...

Now what was that? Just a fake?

karen said...

I-Man, this is only a test. i repeat, this is only a test..

anyone remember that from the tube television days?

I-Man said...

Yes. And that annoying sound that accompanies it...

Like a drill bit in the ear...

karen said...

TraderMark.. I <3 him so!

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/joys-of-non-correlated-markets.html

Leftback said...

Karen,

You are on my dream team....

karen said...

oh brother: http://www.thestockmasters.com/NETFLIX-NFLX-10272010

Hahaha VERY WELL PUT said...

Cvienne - I loved it when Nancy said that and tuche (Yea I KNOW that is spelled wrong..)

That bill should have never been passed.

Do inanimate objects such as water or mountains have rights? I know you were being silly when you said that, because of course they do not.

But do lions and gazelles? On the grand scheme of things YES! Do I have the right to kick a cat? Really, do I? I have the ability to, but that does not make it my right.

Did Nancy have the right to pass Health Care bill? Do banks have the right to lie to people so they take on more debt then they should? Do these same banks have the right to unlawfully foreclose on these houses?

Rights and abilities are separate things.

Do people have the right to elect representatives – Yes, it is what our country is founded on.

When you ask: What are "RIGHTS" anyway? You ask a damn good question.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

yup.. nflx caught a bid.. rolling my eyes.. cuz aapl would pay a premium on the premium on the premium of the squeeze to 185.

TV remembered said...

Karen - I remeber when I was a kind, spending the night at my grandmother's and she would let me stay to 11pm. Then the tv would start playing the National Anthom and sign off.

I also remember, watching Big Time Wresting and seeing Andre The Giant - Who's autograph I got -BTW

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

CV.. i think you will like this:

http://dailycaller.com/2010/10/24/airplane-director-cuts-ad-poking-fun-at-boxer-for-maam-exchange-with-general/

cv said...

@Mutt

I'm NOT being silly when I say that water has a right... I'm being totally serious...

A human body is comprised of up to 70% water (which is in a constant state of flow and exchange)...

So - the water in your body (which is part of you) does not possess the same "rights" as you?

Or, by the same token... Does that mean that when it leaves your body, it relinquishes those rights?

Last word:

I don't know what a "RIGHT" is...

All I know is... "Two WRONGS do NOT make a RIGHT"...

But 3 RIGHTS... Make a LEFT...

That's why there are so many "liberals" around...(to show you how "right" they are about everything)...

karen said...

finally an invictus post that i can agree with, at least in spirit, if not in point.. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/oil’s-well-that-ends-well/

"It’s important to keep an accurate historical record — a chronology — of who said what, and when. Not that anyone’s ever called to task, but so the record is clear."

karen said...

a real link fest if you've got the time:

http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/wednesday-links-choppy-and-messy/

karen said...

I-Man.. this is for us.. and what we've been thinking, i think : )

http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/26/foolish-investors-dancing-naked/

DL said...

401K confiscation...


No way that they explicitly confiscate it.

But they can certainly increase taxes on people who withdraw money from it.

And we're going to get "means testing" for S.S. and Medicaire.... 401K assets may count against you in that regard.

karen said...

On Wednesday 27th October 2010, @mrtopstep said:

$ES_F #futures posted at [12:31:46 PM]: a line in the sand is being drawn now as the SPZ is tested the 1167 area - we show some minor sup along way but last week low 1155.70 and just below that is 1154.47, the 200 day MA on the 240 min chart

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures & the other side of the coin.. on the upside a breach of the opening range 1173.70-1174.00 could trigger some small stops...

I-Man said...

They will go for those stops, but might end getting a surprise...

1174 is the line.

I-Man said...

These intraday W bottom thingies rarely hold a low...

Just sayin...

Leftback said...

Speaking of perfect bottoms, Karen, you made good calls on TBT.
We exited our long Treasury position for a small gain after the auction.

These auctions are confirming what the charts are saying...

Dam Water said...

Cvienne – Without man kind, water will do what nature dictates it does. Man on the other hand can (try to) dispose of the natural flow of things, like creating dams.

As far as the water in my body, I am a little confused by these two statements.

“So - the water in your body (which is part of you) does not possess the same "rights" as you?”

“by the same token... Does that mean that when it leaves your body, it relinquishes those rights?”

It appears you are saying the water in my body, “does NOT possess” rights, if that is your assertion then how can it “relinquishes those rights”

Also if there weren’t so many liberals how would be know how Right we are :)

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

Claims tomorrow.. another crap shoot.. i've got a slight headache.. is it the market? the fact I forgot to have a morning coffee? or LB? LOL

401k Confiscation said...

DL - If I understand how the rules are currently set up, they already penalize people pretty heavily if they do not follow the rules.

But don't worry everything will be jusssstttt great when they privatize social security.

Mangy Mutt

Cream and Sugar? said...

Karen - I would pour you a cup of coffee, but I don't think this internet thingy will allow me to get it to you...

Mutt

Leftback said...

"i've got a slight headache.. is it the market? the fact I forgot to have a morning coffee? or LB?"

Did you forget to have LB? I am sure that can be remediated.....

DL said...

Mangy Mutt,

If I were in my 20's, I'd be wildly enthusiastic about privatization of S.S.

(But I'm not, so I'm against it).

cv said...

@karen

On that (1:45) link...

The only thing I disagreed with was this statement...

"The housing bubble was the Greater Fool Theory on a bigger scale than any of us may ever see again."

---

I happen to think we're well on our way to making an even larger blunder... Actually - I think we already have [made the blunder], we're just waiting to have the effects of it play out on stage...

Like when the pass from the QB (that's destined to become an interception returned the other way for a touchdown), is only at the moment that the ball has just left the QB's hand...

Oh yeah... and we might as well throw in there that in trying to STOP the guy who's going to intercept the pass... The QB will attempt to make a tackle (and break his ribs, get a concussion, and be out for the season in the process)...

Nice try!

karen said...

crude following the indices and not the dollar! where's ben??!!

cv said...

@DL (2:11)

Let me get out my editing pen...

If I were 20, I'd be wildly enthusiastic... But I'm not...

There - fixed it for you...

DL said...

CV @ 2:14

That's true also, I'm afraid.

Leftback said...

I-Man jinxed himself on those intraday W bottom thingies.

karen said...

CV.. well, the housing bubble had it's helpers.. zero down, interest-only, no qual loans!!

Worlds Smartest Woman said...

Ealier today comments were made about Nancy Pelosi, she is the worlds smartest woman you know.
-----------------------------------------------
An airplane was about to crash; there were 5 passengers on board, but only 4 parachutes.

The first passenger said, "I am President Obama, the chosen one. The world needs me, I can't afford to die." So he took the first parachute and left the plane.

The second passenger, Nancy Pelosi, said, "I am the Speaker of the House. And I am the smartest woman in American history, so America 's people don't want me to die." She took the second parachute and jumped out of the plane.

The third passenger, John Kerry, said, "I'm a Senator, and a self-decorated war hero from the Army of the United States of America ." So he grabbed the parachute next to him and jumped.

The fourth passenger, ex-President George W. Bush, said to the fifth passenger, a 10-year-old schoolgirl, "I have lived a full life, and served my country the best I could. I will sacrifice my life and let you have the last parachute."

The little girl said, "That's okay, Mr. President. There's a parachute left for you. America 's smartest woman took my schoolbag."

Mutt

Anonymous said...

@ben , karen:

I disagree with Lewis that making companies with large prop trading operations private would somehow stabilize capital markets or otherwise prevent systemic dislocations.

First, regarding ownership, the two primary differences between publicly traded and privately traded companies are liquidity and transparency. These don't effect management as much as ownership structure (which is what Mr. Lewis should really be analyzing).

Ownership dispersion in the United States and the United Kingdom is much higher than in all other countries of the world. This basically leads to a situation where the owners have very little control over the capital structure and risk profile of a company's operations. Management acts with impunity because shareholders are generally not powerful enough--individually--to put management in line and they are notoriously poor at organizing to gain strength in numbers.

Additionally, most shares in the U.S. are owned indirectly through investment funds and other trusts (ETFs, for example) in which a single person or small group is responsible for voting hundreds of proxies (in addition to the other fundamental and technical research that must be conducted to execute an investment strategy). Generally, they don't have time to research all of the proxies, so they just vote with management's recommendations unless someone brings an issue to their attention. If you look at the policy of most pension funds, they state this explicitly. This is THE DIRTIEST SECRET OF FUND MANAGEMENT (in my opinion) because the fiduciaries are failing in a major part of their fiduciary duty to monitor corporate governance.

Having public companies taken private might help this agency problem to some degree because private companies tend to be more closely held, but that wouldn't necessarily solve any of the systemic risk issues because the Federal Reserve has a history of intervening, even in closely held disasters (LTCM, for example). In other words, it is just as likely that bailouts would occur in private companies.

karen said...

CV, DL, you guys are too cute! I'm wildly enthusiastic at 51.. way more than I was in my 20s..

I-Man said...

If you fade me, I'll fade you Left...

Deal?

DL said...

K,

I'm envious.

cv said...

@Mutt

Don't you suppose that humans have been building dams clear back to before Sumerian times?

I wonder what eventually happened to all those dams... or even if the ones built only 50 years ago will be around 50 years hence...

The bottom line is , who (or what) is really in charge?

I'm wondering what kind of "rights" the dinosaurs must have enjoyed before the Chicxulub asteroid paid a visit...

I-Man said...

The bid monster has some serious munching to do if he wants to take out ES 1174...

Also the line that will confirm any double bottom on the 1min...

Privatizing Social Security said...

DL - I know the SS system is way out of wack to begin with, that there is little to no chance of getting it back on track and even though I have paid into it for over 20 years, I do not realistally think I will ever see any of it.

But privatizing it doesn't really seem to be the answer, most people have little clue as to what and how the market works, so their only choice is to give that money over to private industry.

I really don't think that is a good way to go.

Just my 2 cents

Mangy Mutt

I-Man said...

You're 51, Karen?

I thought we were the same age???

Leftback said...

"I'm wildly enthusiastic at 51.. "

We are talking trading, here, right, Karen?

cv said...

@karen (2:19)

I'm going to have to try some watermelon martinis then...

(and I was just kidding anyway to imply that I'm not enthusiastic)

Frankly though... I'd be MORE enthusiastic if some politicians and bankers would get together and decide to let things BLOW UP...

Then we could all get together ourselves and figure out ways to BUILD things again from the ground up (instead of waiting around for scraps that fall off the banquet table of others)...

I-Man said...

YM is slowing down as everyone watches ES...

Leftback said...

I'd be MORE enthusiastic if some politicians and bankers would get together and decide to let things BLOW UP...

Not until JOHNNY is completely ON BOARD again, might be years.

DL said...

Mutt,

If you've paid in for 20 years, I do think you'll see some of it, especially if you have very little income (and few assets) when you're 62+.

I-Man said...

Alot of bids at 1171... lets see if they mean business...

karen said...

I touched on this earlier today.. (not the POMO part but the 13 ema) Is it gonna be different this time???

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/s-500-still-hitting-13-day-moving.html

Dam Sumerian said...

Cvienne - As a wee little one I use to go out to the streams and block water, at the time I had no clue I was making a dam or stopping nature.

So even though there is no way to prove it one way or another, my guess is that Mr. Neandertal was doing the same thing baby mutt did and was dumping rocks and sticks in the water.

As to who is in charge? Wouldn't it be whoever we elected as our represntiative leaders? If we as a nation do not make that concious choice, won't someone with more power come take it from us?

The dinosours were probably to busy watching football to notice the asteriod...

Mangy Mutt

cv said...

@LB

Actually - I "misstated" that a little...

I "implied" that they have some kind of CONTROL as to whether or not it BLOWS UP...

In fact, I should be happy that they appear to be "fasttracking" the fuse for the eventual BLOW UP by their policy maneuvers...

Leftback said...

Karen,

LB got longer this morning.

Anonymous said...

Privatizing social security is a way for money managers to skim 20 basis points off the top of what would be the largest trust fund in the world.

While that sounds odious, the current situation is much worse. Despite what politicians may say, social security is not a trust fund. If it were, the trustee would be in prison. It isn't set up like a trust--they don't purchase assets to fund future liabilities. Social security receipts are, in fact, a part of the general revenue and disbursements are part of the general budget (see Bill Clinton's "budget surplus" that was an illusion created by a near budget balance + social security receipts).

Comforting said...

DL - Thanks for the comforting thought on how poor I will need to be to get my own money back

I don't know if that deserves a :) or a :(

But I started working and paying my taxes, when I was still in grade school, so I still have a loooonnnnggggg way to go - Unless of course I find a rich woman who is REALLY desperate.

Mangy Mutt

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