Merkel Tells Obama to "stick it where the sun don't shine" Germany Won’t Heed Calls to Focus on Growth
Excerpt:
OBAMA
The G-20 must “safeguard and strengthen” the economic recovery and promote “global demand growth that avoids the imbalances of the past,”
"order to public finances should be restored in the “medium term.”
MERKEL
"Germans are more likely to spend money if they feel the government “is taking precautions” to ensure solid finances..."
Gimme a minute to try and figure out which of these ideas is moronic...
---
Mortgage Bond Prices Rise to ‘Insane’ Records: Credit Markets
Excerpt:
“It’s gotten insane,” said Scott Simon, the head of mortgage-backed securities at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “This is rarefied air.”
U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly fell last month and purchases of new houses tumbled to a record low, underscoring how borrowers’ ability to qualify for financing is limited even as rates drop."
First of all they forgot the "P" in PIMPCO... Anyway, I'm trying for the life of me to figure out how in the world home sales could POSSIBLY be falling (after homebuyer tax credits expired)...
Oh wait... Maybe I found something...
Prison Inmates Claimed Homebuyer Tax Credit, $28 Million in Fraud
Excerpt:
"The United States Treasury Department released a report today declaring $9.1 million in tax credits were fraudulently claimed and received by more than 1,200 prison inmates. Some 241 inmates who filed for homebuyer tax credit are on death row."
---
But I'm sure Chris Dodd & the rest of those hardworking CONgress people are working on "fixing" that today... Well, not "TODAY" today because this is what they have to vote on...
Hollywood Backs Ban on Box-Office Futures in Financial Overhaul
Excerpt:
"Lawmakers negotiating an overhaul of financial-markets regulation are weighing a ban on futures contracts pegged to box-office receipts"
Hollywood, meet Lloyd... "We're from Goldman Sachs & we're here to help you"
---
Or... If you prefer your news on the LITE side...
CNBC (clickables)
- 'Fast' Traders: Horrible Housing—Hold Your Nose & Buy?
- Euro Zone Industry Orders Log Top Gain in Decade
- Hope For Afghanistan: Minerals and Economics
- Obama Approval Rating Slips to 45%: NBC-WSJ Poll
- Cramer ‘Applauds’ Fed Decision
- Why Are There So Few New Homeowners?
- Cool Android Apps
- Trichet Explains Why Soros Is Wrong About the Euro
Can't you just wait to sink your teeth into any of that "hard hitting" journalism?
---
CV was fooling around with some charts yesterday... I'm kind of "fixated" on the idea of this imminent "Golden Cross" (50 day MA crosses over the 200MA)... Technically, I think it's called something else when it crossed DOWN in that fashion...
Nevertheless, it ought to happen within the next 8-13 trading days... It looks like this (potentially) on the chart...
& I'll give you this chart to pull the 200DAY line into full view...
We're coming to End of Quarter...
I gotta admit... I was reading all the HFT riff raff on ZH last evening... It seems everyone on the planet has a bee in their bonnet about "order stuffing", FED interventions, etc.
But it seems to me that something as simple as this "CROSS" could really be much more overwhelming than any of those other market operations that happen in a low volume trend environment...
To many basic fund managers (just trying to beat their "Lipper Averages" - whatever the hell that is), this is the ONLY thing they look at...
50 over 200 and trending up = GOOD
50 under 200 and trending down = BAD
It's something to consider... Big question is... "When do the rats start fleeing the ship"?... Because the way the charts look, you're going to need to put 11 players (all with extra sized Hamburger Helper mitts) in front of the goal to prevent this one from getting through...
404 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 404 Newer› Newest»Mannwich,
When people stop asking where the bottom is,
THAT'll be the bottom.
@Nic
Well... Going back to the EUR...
Regardless of Hendry vs. Soros, there's an EASIER way to play the collapse of the Euro (or not)...
Just wait until GS puts out a BUY or SELL recommendation on it (and go the other way)...
@ben: Who said BP was "going to zero?" I asked the question but said no such thing.
@DL (1:28)
Now THAT, my friend... is solid advice!
The bears are restless
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYKthhr2OSk
Manny,
I'm asking why can't BP go to $0 in response to:
"Can't be zero, can it?"
Why not? Not saying that's my call, I don't know anything about BP stock, but I'm certainly never going to say any stock can't find itself at $0, it's just paper after all, and it's not as if stockholders will end up with anything in the event of liquidation.
@McF
Not that I really care...
But as far as "probability" is concerned...
CV could imagine that it ends up like C or FNM, AIG, or FRE...
I don't have to go into detail on all the ramifications and attachments to that idea (as most of the smart people on this blog have already witnessed this in the past 2 years)...
Just conjecture...
Vix sonar report:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB7P0EXRazA
what magnificent creatures.. i once read every book i could get my hands on about Liver-Eating Johnson.. the grizzlies reminded me of him.
Reverse H&S coming up on the 10 min. SPX (at the 1086 level)...
This might be "do or die" time for bulls...
Failure here could lead to FLASH CRASH 2...
@ben: Oh, I see what you're saying. Gotcha. I was just kind of throwing it out there. I have NO CLUE where it's going but wonder if anyone here might. A lot of people seem to be inclined on catching a falling knife though, especially quite a few commenters on TBP. They seem quiet lately. LOL.
@Nic
Thanks NIC...
Although it seems there are currently MANY far more worthy candidates for "going to zero" than BP, but who knows?
CV, stop teasing me with that flash crash talk. Nic, yes, thanks for all.. especially the HH : )
C,
there is a counter to that statement;
assuming that C, FNM, AIG, or FRE have "survived" also assumes that this is all over....I disagree with that idea completely. Besides...FNM and FRE have both basically said their shares are in fact worth nothing.
@Manny
I think TWSWB has a lot of people MESMERIZED and BRAINWASHED into the idea of "hold your nose & buy"...
That site has de-volved into PRAISE BARRY asylum...
Manny,
Well, I'm in your camp on BP...too risky for me....the probability certainly isn't way on our side to make money in that so why get involved.
Along the lines of what DL said, if everybody over there is talking about getting in at the bottom, then it's probably not the bottom.
C,
I used to do that with BR, the constant praising...I'm guilty.
Yeah, FNM & FRE would be worth LESS than nothing, if not for all the bailouts.
@McF (1:45)
I think you're missing the meaning of what I'd intended to say...
I'll explain later...
Right now I'm occupied in using my SUPERPOWERS to tantalize karen into believing that a FLASH CRASH is a real threat at the moment now...
@DL
"would be worth LESS than nothing"...
BREAKING NEWS: "Obama announces that he will pay for your gas/mortgage/and FNM-FRE shares - even though they are worth less than nothing"...
That's true to some extent, cv, although I think I still challenge BR a bit from time to time, as does ahab, who pokes him with a stick quite a bit. LOL.
@karen @all
For those of you into FRACTALS...
I urge you to compare the 60 minute candles (and the previous days)...
To today's candles...
The Curmudgeon still challenges BR as well.
@Manny
That's because you guys are "remnants"...
A lot of the new people, I suppose, are freshly minted APOSTLES...
@Manny
I know... DH razzes him too... But I'm talking overall...
Idiot me...
On my (1:54)
I meant to say... "compare the May 5th 60 min candles" - TO TODAY...
That's right, CV. Dead Hobo as well and I think you're right in general there.
@Manny
I admit... It's a broad generalization...
@Manny
But that's the way CV's mind works...
I think in OVERALL terms...
"specifics" tend to get a person bogged down...
I don't mind breaking a few eggs in the name of progress...
@McF
if you're out there...
Are you "seeing" a little mini 5 wave up (that could lead to a conclusion on the 1086-1090 area) and then this whole enchilada rolls over?
I'm not a WAVER, but is that a reality?
manny -
see earlier link
Bankrupt BP - Worse For The Financial World Than Lehman Brothers.
not sure what percentage of bp parent corp that bp n.a. constitutes, but seem to recall an article elsewhere citing a figure on the order of 40%, enough from which to wring no small amount in fines and damages, though perhaps not enough for eventual total ecosystem + financial havoc
That's cool. I get it. Overall, comments seem to be a bit down over there. I think the posts are a bit less provocative now that BR is a big shot in the investment world. Gotta toe that vanilla line a bit more.
For my American friends, on our common language
@manny
That pretty much summarizes it...
@Manny
None of it really motivates me anymore to even get into the scrum...
You can count on CV making a comment there under only one case scenario...
- If TWSWB says something "totally" idiotic
- AND - If I have about 6 beers in my belly at the same time...
cv, can you elaborate a bit on that 60 min candle biz.. are you inferring the down is over and we take off tomorrow?
Went short at 1081.25 target of 1072
Anyone know of a good ergonomic computer desk chair that doesnt cost $1000???
Because my chair sucks.
@karen (2:11)
I'll try to put a chart up to illustrate what I'm talking about...
I don't know if it means anything (but it DOES include some strange "after hours" prints that most of you don't have on your screens - and that have been PUZZLING CV for the past few weeks)...
Wait a bit...
@I-Man
Suck it up! :-)
yeah CV, that could work as a C wave target...there are still several things at work here....bulls hoping for a nice impulse up again...bears wishing they could have gotten monday back.
Only been sitting in this thing for 4 trading days and I feel like I got hit by a damn bus...
I-Man..try costco for an inexpensive but comfortable office chair.
Who spends $1000 on a chair???
Thx K... Will do. I can do costco... but herman miller can kiss my rasta ass.
Todays Mr Topstep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhoOD4mHwFg
@I-Man. Got my Herman Miller on sale a few years ago for $600, I think. It's great. Search online for discounts and sales. They have to be everywhere now.
I-man I sit on a swissball for half the day to build core strength. Careful if you drink tea or coffee though. There's no worse feeling than that millisecond you're sure you are going to die after leaning back a little too far.
C,
You know though, if lefty were around, he might mention we just wrapped up the auction.
I-man,
ebay or amizon you should be able to find something good for well below 1k.
we got decent furniture for our office years ago from a good used furniture store in downtown wilmington, stuff all looked brand new, i'd bet you'd have something similar around your area.
"Who spends $1000 on a chair???"
John Thain.
IMan- lumbar support, I find, is the most important part.
Finally back at home behind my computer and trying to catch up. I tried to keep up but pictures like the following are hard for survivor capital to compete with.
http://yfrog.com/mrimg0047whlj
There are stores that specialise in used office furniture that are pretty good and prolly plenty full in this environment
exercise ball... grand idea!
Thx all... for having "my back".
;)
Danny Riley is the MAN.
I use that too sometimes. Great for abs and back.
A must read: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37874391
(Diana Olick) Oh, and one more thing from my California housing guru, Mark Hanson, who led his note today with words used by my kids when they see cauliflower:
"Of criminal note: A stand-out in today's report was that April's Southern sales results were revised down from 26k to 17k completely eliminating the March to April new home sales gain that was celebrated so greatly by the market last month. This is the very same mystery gain I was pounding the table over. On a percentage basis the West was revised down even more, from 11k to 7k."
yeah the exercise balls / swiss balls are cheap too. Blow it up at the gas station. Just get one big enough for your desk height
Wonder if you are allowed to sit down over at SAC.
Freezing cold inside, no sitting, golden showers....
@karen
NEW CHART IN THREAD
This is what I'm referring to...
I don't know if it means anything or not... But the FRACTAL is awful similar to what preceded the FLASH CRASH...
Yo lemme get some a dat estro yo...
Need. More. Estro.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/24/270531/hugh-hendry-soros-has-embraced-socialism/
Meant to ask Nic, did you get to reload on audjpy?
CV.. that definitely makes one go, hmm.. it's difficult to see with all those days in between however..
just did yes I-Man
Nic do you ever lower/raise targets when you have a position on, or does it stay static?
(Assuming you have a target for each trade before its placed)
@karen
Looks awful damn similar to me...
In any case... I'm not "adding" shorts here, but it's stopping me from going long...
AND... If I start seeing an accelerated move to the downside... I'll know what to do...
@karen
FLASH CRAS initiated in the 2:00 time frame...
14:13 if I recall... Today's most recent high... 13:59
I always have a target I-man and if it isn't 3x my risk I don't take it.
I don't trust this market worth a spit right now...
Sometimes I revise my target, or re-draw fibs and support and resistance. Usually because I am wondering what could go wrong etc
how accelerated, CV.. like what is happening this minute? laughing.
i think what i want to do is get out and sit out.. i really hate this 5 min macro.. i can't second guess my second guesses.. i am really frazzled and frustrated.. (oh no! i sound like Cramer !!)
Thanks CV for the chart. I am thinking more shorts brfore 3.00 pm
DP
But lets say you have a target when you put a trade on, but then after awhile, its working the way you thought, but you think there is more meat on the bone...
Do you go with your original one you set, or do you change it according to current conditions?
LOL
Short term...
If we start dropping below 30 (RSI) on 10 min, or below 40 (RSI) daily...
I'd be a nervous bull...
EURUSD is a perfect short setup, two equal moves off the lows and a bearish gartley fib pattern
Karen, I think there is a daytrader in you... just dying to break out from its shell.
:)
@DP
I frankly don't know what to say...
All I can say is that I see a SEVERE risk of the bottom falling out...
I DON'T see that much risk of a "melt-up"...
CV. RSI still @ 39. we still got some downside here. spx1070
DP
Amen should chime in here with some thoughts...
No "melt-up" today.
But perhaps a mini-rally on Monday.
Those bids at 1073 are getting gobbled up with the quickness
Disclosure:
CV is "short" here (but WAY LESS than 100% short)...
about 50-50 cash & short...
NO LONGS (no hedges)...
I'd have to see a big acceleration down to add to that train...
Targets:
1064
1040
1022
980
@I-Man
By who? "the wizard"?
here we go....
dp
The wizard would be adding bids, not gobbling them...
Must be Sauron.
Fuck the wizard...
I hope the HFT's flip the switch again and shut off HAL
Betcha the wizard's boys have some bids at 1067 tho... just to keep the ship from capsizing...
Its only listing now...
well, you can see a simple five down from yesterday's highs to today's lows an ABC from there and here we are going down again...market looks like shite right now.
they are really trying to defend 1070... most size I've seen all day
C,
did you watch that top step video? there are buyers out there.
@Nic
"EURUSD is a perfect short setup"
Yeah - Especially if GS comes out tomorrow and puts a 1.35 target on it... LOL
I-Man.. i used to day trade.. i should go back to it : )
Perfect market for it, imo.
@all
The KISS version...
MJ fibo
.09= 1110.02 (check)
.1459= 1041.83 (retest coming)
.1855= 993.53 (if break below 1040)
MN fibo
.10= 1097.82 (closed below on 6/22/10)
.1107= 1084.77 (will test today)
.1272= 1064.64 (fear begins)
.1618= 1022.44 (KATHERINE)
big read on the 60 min spy.. quite bearish engulfing..
@karen
I'm telling you... CV isn't even listening to MR TOPSTEP today...
i meant RED not read.
"The Wizard" is going to run out of ink trying to save this one before g-20...
Clipped out at 1074, and flat. Back out of the hole.
EUR also right at the low of 2008.
@I-Man
Tough "eatin what you kill ain't it" :-)
It feels like I'm watching a wreck in slow motion.
You know the drop is coming. You can feel it in your bones. I'm just waiting for the first large trader to head for the exit...then it begins.
First large trader says...
"What me worry" (NOT)
Where is Waddell and Reid when you need them....we need some dumb ass mutual fund manager to look at his/her screen.
Wanna hear some funny shit?
I-Man's first job in "the business"... Waddell and Reed.
Ha!
drv is a picture perfect cup and handle on the 60 min, 10 day chart.. nice base..
Oh glory...
Show us thy divine EPIC-NESS!
I-man-sorry this is related to chairs, etc. I have a core stability disk from GoFit (Target, Amazon,$25) that you can sit on in any chair. It does same thing as an exercise ball but you can maintain a "professional" atmosphere. You can stand on it for ankle strength, and it has those nubby things that massage your feet. I used it at swim meets on bleachers and never had a sore back.
Do you think Tyler reads our blogs?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meet-new-regime-welcome-audjpy-goodbye-eurjpy
i'm addicted to that Kirkland brand carrot juice costco is selling.. i can drink 32 oz easily..
@I-Man (3:08)
LMAO - You da man brah!
1072 is being difficult..
Iman, nice, those guys call every week to recruit, then I tell them I'm trying to get out of the business.
yeah, i figured the 1072 would provide some resistance, just thought we'd have seen it a little earlier as mentioned yesterday....that whole timing thing foils me again.
i am so close@1070. I might cover some shorts here.
DP
This is feeling like very similar to the end of 2008. UST run up (Euro bank balance sheet dressing) and low on the EUR. Could be major whippage in the future.
End of half could 2010 could be a fractal of end of year 2008, very similar circumstances.
i think spy 107 is more critical here..
@McF
I still say FUCK IT...
They can defend 1072 today perhaps...
Maybe they'll get overwhelmed at 4:00PM...
I'll let you know at 4:15...
Wow, wobbly to say the least.
wow, good f'n call I.
well, I heard rumor from some of these astro guys that a storm would start on the east coast and carry to the gulf....it was 100 here early this morning and it's turning black outside right now....crazy.
CV
You have been rabbiting on about your fractals all day and I just want to say ...
WELL DONE
Market reversed right before crossing the .1855 (using close) of 1071.78 LMAO
if I were trading mini's I'd likely have a core short I'd trade around right now with a tiny long with a tight stop at this 1072.....
Maybe they print 1064 in the overnight?
classic, Nic said rabbiting when talking about fractals!
all the thoughts of rabbits...are rabbits.
man I'm such a dork.
Watch out, they can blow this back up to 1073 in a heartbeat...
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/almost-every-trader-on-realmoneycom.html
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Almost Every Trader on Realmoney.com Went Long on that Mini Bounce
Posted by TraderMark at 3:12 PM
Rarely do you see such a consensus from a bevy of traders; that bounce and move over 1081-1082 on the S&P 500 seemed to get their animal spirits up, with Doug Kass leading the charge. The lemming pledge is alive and well.
buy those dips dougie, a week ago he was "more than all in" on mortgage insurers.
O.K., O.K., more QE.
Popeye said...
"Well BLOW ME DOWN"...
CV said
"Well BLOW ME"... lol
McHappy
You will be needing one of these:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql-N3F1FhW4
@karen (3:24)
CLASSIC! :-)
spy got to 107.14 and 30 min candle looking turny.. sighing.
"Lemming Pledge"
LMAO...
Is that a play on Lemon Pledge, the cleaner? Brilliant!
@karen
Please continue to furnish us with those GEMS...
SC has a NEW "contrarian indicator"!
I got a new sell limit at 1073.25, and I dont really care if it fills.
I just want to go to the pool...
MCF
Really bad looking storm headed your way. Look at how long that line is...
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
my spy rsi says we can go lower no problem.. let's see what happens.
@karen
The funny thing about it is this...
At this point, I could "see" a 1080 or so close...
But if you look at the FRACTAL of the SPY chart I put up...
The FLASH CRASH didn't actually occur until the day after...
IOW - CV is comparing TODAY to May 5th...
Tomorrow would be the May 6th FRACTAL (FWIW)...
But Brian Wesbury said a few weeks ago the "glass is half full" strategy always works.
Back when I was a trip leader for a wilderness program, thats what we'd call an "Oh Shit Cloud."
Yikes...
Lennar: June Home Sales off 20-25% from June '09. Whoocouldanode?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/lennar-june-home-sales-off-20-to-25.html
EWI had this yesterday at the close
Both of these areas are derived via various wave relationships that cluster with retracement levels. In the S&P 500, the equivalent ranges are 1071-1077 and 1062.
but we had that 1072 here first....Survivor Cap baby!
CV that fractal chart is dope.
bob,
good lookin out...damn...it just got real dark here and very windy...probably should head home soon, 95 will be a disaster, luckily I'm not on the road tonight, which would have been a blast I'm sure.
This quote is priceless. Reality sure does suck. Can we please go back to '09 now?
“The entire market knew there’d be a slowdown as we came off the tax credit,” Miller said on a conference call with investors today. “It’s just that the reality of it doesn’t feel good.”
@I-Man
I kno right?
was anyone more wrong in 08 than Brian Wesbury...does he even admit now that we had a recession?
tool.
this is what's going on i think:
Volcker rule confirmed in final finreg proposal
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
@McF
Better start putting some oil dispersant in your windshield wiper fluid...
You never know... :-(
8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate
8:30 AM GDP Deflator
9:55 AM U Michigan Sentiment - Final
This has the feeling of a hunt for buystops at 1072... but theres just too many offers I think...
Their tricks arent working the same as they were when more peeps were buying dips...
If you put that stuff in any plastic container or rubber hose in your car it would cease to exist.
Websters Dictionary said...
Here's the "official" definition of "TOOL"...
GOOG is a big harmonic pattern. close below 475 and its in for quite a drop
http://harmonicanalyzer.com/share/goog-7867-7993.png
@CV
"For those of you into FRACTALS...
I urge you to compare the 60 minute candles (and the previous days)..."
I compared them... they're all 60 minutes... hmmm :/
Frank Farkel doesn't understand fractals
@Nic (3:43)
Stars are aligning...
@CV: LOL! You nailed it.
Lowered limit to 1072.25... I'm a dick for the tick.
For all of you who don't know FRANK FARKEL...
Here he is...
http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/wp-content/the-horse-you-rode-in-on.gif
lolol oh man, CV on oil + that Frank Frakel post, man, that's funny.
they're all 60 minutes bwahahaha that was good.
really bad news: Gulf Methane Levels 1 Million Times Above Normal Are Depleting Oxygen And Creating Life Dead Zones
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gulf-methane-levels-1-million-times-above-normal-are-depleting-oxygen-and-creating-life-dead
@bob
Or... If you pumped the GOM full of it... The FISH would probably cease to exist as well...
Aww, fuck it.
I'm pulling my orders. They aint gonna let this thing fall apart at this point.
@McF
It's just "stand up comedy"... 24/7... :-)
MUST...NOT...BREAK...BELOW...LOW...IN...LAST...5 MIN
@Amen
Because there are DARK CLOUDS surrounding McF's abode...
Does that mean the EYE WALL is approaching?
:-)
CV,
Nonsense, they've done studies, they love the stuff...
http://consumerist.com/2010/05/dont-worry-about-oil-spill-remember-oysters-love-crude-oil.html
@Amen
maybe you could substitute the HURRICANE image with this...
http://carphotos.cardomain.com/sites/cardomain/features/john/vw-fork.gif
@bob
Awww man... That's just wrong! -lol
CV
WTH??? LMAO
KATHERINE!
PPT fail today
@Nic
Wait until THE GOLDEN CROSS to see EPIC FAIL of PPT...
Is that related to LB's death cross and abandoned baby?
(joke) I am sure LB does not abandon babies
@Nic
No way... Especially not with TWINS!
Walt Disney unveiled plans Wednesday to start building and selling luxury homes in Florida near its theme park
CV is going to say something...
Per the last AH chart I put into the thread this afternoon... and what I'm seeing now...
Be very careful buying into a bounce in the open tomorrow...
NOT ADVICE... just caution (until proven otherwise)...
THIS IS VERY THIN ICE!
@Mickey Mouse
When we get to "head fake" #1,618... let me know...
Thanks for all your help (and your undying love)...
...and, OF COURSE... "athletic support"...
going for a walk! back for the wrap.. i think we skidded against the side today, AR.
ps.. the oracle and rim to lift the naz tomorrow ??
Here you go Americans, something to make you feel good
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbn3rOPmR9w
anyone notice huge volume on XLF JUL and AUG at the money put?
What's your take on?
td,
possibly related:
this was uploaded on 6/6/10:
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/u/10/4jDEjTqzIqE
Nic,
that video was awesome!
ben,
thanks!
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