Morning Audibles 4.2.10 - Enjoy the Holiday Weekend!

To all the "peeps" who share this blog everyday, I'll be out and around all weekend enjoying some nice sun, and attending some gatherings.

So I'd simply like to leave this message of peace and goodwill (and say "thanks" to you all who come every day).

Happy Easter! & Chag Pesach Kasher veSameach!


CV

68 comments:

call me ahab said...

Enjoy your weekend CV

my post to on the other thread touched base on the WTE job # but suggested- those on the East Coast such as you, DL, & b22- get out and enjoy the wonderful weather-

I know I will

AmenRa said...

U6 16.9 +0.1
B/D 81k
wkly hrs 34 +0.1
Partticipation rate 64.9 +0.1
Manufacturing 17k +11k
Construction 15k +74k

10YR 3.91% and rising...

McFearless said...

Peeps!

Yeah, I made some comments on the bottom post.

I'm out for most of the day, everyone have a good one.

McFearless said...

Construction added 74k.

construction?

Maybe repairs from the snow storm, I got it....

I believe census was 48k so I guess that's where most of it comes from between the two.

Recovery is here!

McFearless said...

The comments on the other thread reveal the still deep underlying hate of Wall Street that continues to build, not get smaller. There is no confusion then about what shorts are risking in a P3, as if the government won't jump on that hate bandwagon.

I was told yesterday by a teacher at a public school that I "make money off other people's money"

Seriously....

call me ahab said...

b22-

on the previous thread- yeah that pictogram- I've seen that before- good stuff- but did you catch the small print at the beginning indicting the booklet was originally published by General Motors- pretty wild-

and this-

"can someone here please define for me the "value" added by each known profession?"

I am sure the current administration is working on that now-

the short answer- if asked of anyone about there profession- is incalculably invaluable

McFearless said...

ahab,

Yes, the very first time I saw that I thought, oh, GM...isn't that interesting.

and yeah, you got my point on the value added question, we all think OUR job is the most important thing going and anyone that earns more is somehow not needed.

call me ahab said...

. . .and b22-

the pictogram showing the exercises on the public square-

jives nicely w/ the current public outrage over obesity and fast food-

and now w/ health care being nationalized- I can see mandatory exercise and "health" awareness classes coming soon- you know- now that the rest of society is footing the bill- must adhere and be a good citizen-

makes me want to go McDonalds

McFearless said...

ahab,

when I look through that I have the sinking feeling that all of it is way too fitting to our lives now.

but hey, by the ban the speculator logic;

wouldn't it be easier (and cheaper?) for all of us to just kill all the fat people? If all the governments of the world would get together and kill fat people then health insurance costs would go down.

Perhaps it's not exactly the same?

call me ahab said...

. . .and also-

school teacher's are the worst- my sister is a drama teacher at a high school-

and hearing her- no-one could possibly work as hard and be as selfless as she- always bitching that the pay is not commensurate w/ the hours she puts in- because she is that important- drama of course being a finely honed and necessary craft-

and my response always is- "you knew that going in"-

so STFU

call me ahab said...

"kill all the fat people"!!!!!

not quite "kill all the brutes" from "The Heart of Darkness"-

but I like it-

damn fat people

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Going to set out some scarlet oaks this morning. Great weather.

McFearless said...

Um, screw that. My first year at my job I worked minimum 12 hours per day every day but Sunday. I made almost 1,000 cold calls every week, and on 990 of them I'd get sworn at, hung up on, etc. I made 27k GROSS the first 12 months.

Did it suck...sure. Did I pick the job. Yes I did.

McFearless said...

did you all catch nic's post down on the other thread? Fed meeting Monday regarding discount rate....

call me ahab said...

there was some debate on whether was an April Fool's joke

McFearless said...

was it? that is the Fed's website.

call me ahab said...

no- last I heard it was legit-

the goal to stem borrowing from the discount window?

CV said...

It was not an April Fools Joke...

CV said...

ostensibly they're going to talk about the discount rate...

To CV?

They're circling the wagons now that TD blew the lid off of Maiden Lane...

call me ahab said...

CV-

that was kind of my read- a meeting on the discount rate?

I mean really- is that a big deal

AmenRa said...

2.4 Trillion SOMA Holdings not hedged will get a some peoples attention.

AmenRa said...

Also 10YR hitting 3.95%

Mannwich said...

@Amen: Uh-oh. Anyone else get the sense that if Banana Benny loses control of the 10 year, this thing could get out of control rather quickly?

Also, with oil creeping upward going into the summertime "driving season", could we see $100 oil this summer. It seems that's what a lot of people WANT, no? To me, $100 oil is game over again for the economy, no?

Mannwich said...

Interesting post over at NC:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/why-the-fall-in-the-savings-rate-means-something.html

Mannwich said...

Isn't it obvious by now that the BLS numbers are being highly managed, even more so than before? They needed a number that wasn't too hot or cold so they can justify their ZIRP 4-eva policies and of course that's what we got.

karen said...

cold temperatures here in southern california but the sun is brilliant and should heat up the land.. so, i guess 3.95 was the high? i'm seeing 3.94 now.. how this plays out on monday is beyond me.

karen said...

I'm in shock that Fusion IQ is long C..

72bat said...

" how this plays out on monday..."
cv's speculated that "they'll rig this thing so that Monday STARTS strong...
at the very least, with all the uncertainty going into monday now, a market melt-up at the opening seems less likely?
what could possibly transpire at the federal reserve system 11:30 a.m. meeting that would instill confidence and start a melt-up afterward?

karen said...

Kid Dynamite has some good posts up.. he is long C too, but also a lot shorter XLF. http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

karen,

fusion is heavy on momentum, so I'm not surprised to hear they may be long C. A lot of the hedgies are too as you know.

I used to subscribe to fusion, conclusion is that one day that program is going to get whipsawed.

ben22

Leftback said...

LB checking in on bonds here, Chicago was open this morning for the NFP number. We are MASSIVELY short the long end, for a trade, so the rocket in 10y yields was not too distressing, and with the auctions up ahead we think this was a rather predictable (and profitable) reaction.

The +160K seems soft.. and the +48K less than expected. Perhaps they will try to spin out the census hiring to counter the state layoffs which are mounting alarmingly.

Equities look set for Magic Monday action. Commodities like gold seem set for a fall, should present a good shorting opportunity soon.

Haven't even looked at FX yet today. The auction would seem to be the last concern for Bucky for the time being. Job growth + Euro weakness would seem to paint a rosy picture for Bucky for the time being. The bugs are going to have a difficult month, likewise holders of USTs - specifically the short end, we expect a slaughter of 2y here.

Mannwich said...

Taibbi's latest:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street/print

karen said...

The ramifications of this bogle:

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- New federal guidelines say thousands of U.S. homes tainted by Chinese drywall won't be safe unless they are completely gutted.

The Consumer Product Safety Commission released the guidelines Friday. They say electrical wiring, outlets, circuit breakers, fire alarm systems, carbon monoxide alarms, fire sprinklers, gas pipes and drywall must be removed.

About 3,000 homeowners, mostly in Florida, Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, have reported problems with the Chinese-made drywall.

A large quantity of the drywall was imported during the housing boom and after a string of Gulf Coast hurricanes. It has been linked to corrosion of wiring, air conditioning units, computers, doorknobs and jewelry, along with possible health problems.

Nic said...

USD had a good day particularly against European currencies, flat against commodity currencies and very strong against the yen. Yen is weak across the board. Dollar buying started early on rumours of Fed meeting and possible tightening Monday and China's central bank speculated overnight that dollar's rebound will be limited. That scenario wouldn't aid their exchange rate policy.
The last surprise hike of the discount rate in February certainly moved FX and was very dollar positive.
Agree with LB that commodities look set for a fall next week.

Jack Bogle said...

Bogle, Karen, or boggle?

karen said...

Anyone watch the Frontline piece, The Warning?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/the-warning/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

The story is sensational enough without sensationalizing it!! I didn't bother..

Leftback said...

The solution to the "housing crisis" is likely to involved the bulldozer to some degree. Some of the new homes cheaply built with substandard materials will end up being razed. Quite a few older dilapidated structures will also come down.

Yen weakness always a factor in the Japanese New Year as the carry trade flexes its muscles once more....

Nic said...

Thanks Karen ...

"Debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shouldn’t be considered sovereign debt, but there should be no doubt about the U.S. government’s support for the two firms," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a recent letter to a U.S. House lawmaker.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/02/geithner-fannie-freddie-debt-isnt-sovereign-debt/

The Trouble With The Fed's Secret Bailout:
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2010/04/01/secret_fed_bailout_open2010/index.html

Mannwich said...

@Nic: What kind of debet should we consider it then? Off sovereign balance sheet debt? So it's not really there?

Nic said...

It's a joke isn't it Mannwich ...

Mannwich said...

And the joke's on us. Read Taibbi's latest above if you haven't already. As if we need it underscored at this point....

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street/print

Mannwich said...

I'm effing crankier than normal today. And the market's not even open.

Leftback said...

LB isn't cranky. No indeed. Not at all cranky, although a bit sore from carrying the bag around some soggy fairways.

He got short the long end on Wednesday and then went to play golf yesterday. So we made money while I played golf, which was obviously great, and then we made money this morning while we were sitting around drinking coffee. So that was good too, obviously. Now we are on a trailer for our short position into the W-Th auctions, and will tighten up the stop progressively as that approaches, snapping up little nibbles of the long bond if we get close to 4.00%.

After that, we will look hard at commodity and equity shorts.

Leftback said...

Besides, Mannwich, how can you be cranky in the delightful company of the lovely Karen and Nic? Not to mention the witty and entertaining LB? (LB will have to make up for the absence of CV for the time being).

Nic said...

Must be the message, not the messengers ;)

Nic said...
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karen said...
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karen said...
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Mannwich said...

This shit's not going to end until the taxpayer eats ALL of the banks toxic paper and likes it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-tim-geithner-sniveling-scamster

Mannwich said...

And it looks like the above scam is to replace QE. We knew that had to come up with something, right? It won't end until there's another crash followed by rioting in the streets.

prosciutto gristle said...

Sorry I ranted yesterday. For some reason, I was very troubled to hear Andy--a person who has always struck me as genteel and beyond reproach--describe some faceless and forthright commenter as "the stupidest person I've ever encountered." When that person's sin was to...was to...articulate an argument about petrol prices that is not entirely uncolorable? (And no, I'm not "DeDude.")

So I spoofed it. And none of you took the hint. If this board can't be a vehicle for the complete range of emotions then what good is it?

When the insatiable quest for lucre starts to occlude one's basic compassion for other people, I would suggest that it's time to reassess one's goals. Do I want to become an inveterate gambler, because the Internet makes it possible? Do I want to disparage other people because the market happened to move against me today? No, I don't.

Honestly, I mean no disrespect. Goodbye.

call me ahab said...

manny-

that Bloomberg article referenced in your ZH link is a few day old-

the poster's impression that the FHA loans will all go bust is conjecture-

the FHA financing that will occur is at a reduced principal and rate-

so . . .no certainty that the loan will then go bust if it is advantageous to the homeowner-

the trade off for banks- is that they may get more for MBS but they have to take a hit on the loans by cutting principal-

so the banks aren't scamming anyone really- they are trading off higher value for MBS to a ready buyer (the USG) in exchange for cutting the amount owed before handing off to HUD via FHA-

the future value of the MBS- unknown

call me ahab said...

prosciutto-

don't run off-

Andy's is an even keeled dude-

he is not a fan of government control of prices (nor am I)-

speculation is part of that- up and down- high and low-

not sure your age- but Nixon (a Republican no less) tried price controls-

and it was a failure-

but we can agree to disagree- right?

Mannwich said...

Thanks for the heads-up on that, ahab. Wow, it seems everyone's a little on edge lately...

Mannwich said...

@ahab: But you must admit that it would seem plausible that the stuff the banks are off-loading would likely be the most toxic stuff and not worth anywhere near 100 cents on the dollar, correct? Or am I missing something here?

prosciutto gristle said...

Ahab, who cares about price controls? Tell me about your dog, what is his name? My cat's name is Walnut. She was run over a couple years ago and it cost $15k to save her. The universe wanted her dead, no question about it. It is the best money we ever spent. It was a victory over death and those are rare indeed. That cat is sitting here right now and it's wiser than I am.

Mannwich said...

@prosciutto: ???

call me ahab said...

manny-

it's been a surreal day for me- just kind of weird-

not quite "Blue Velvet" but getting there-

anyway- re your question- the USG is just making a market for MBS- the trade off- principal reduction- not really a bad move in my estimation-

it's taken some time- but the banks may finally understand- that it will never get better if folks- because they don't want to stay in their underwater homes- just walk away

((((((((((((((((((((((((


prosciutto- thanks for adding to my surreal day-

my dog? hahahahahaha- I have no dog-

who am I to control the destiny of a being from another species?

but please tell me- does your cat "send" you messages???

Mannwich said...

@ahab: You know what? Me too. Today just felt weird all around. Not sure exactly why.

Thanks for the explanation on that. Maybe I'm just suffering from bailout fatigue and would just like one day, no one hour without finding out about some new gov't bailout or stimulus "program" or some chicnanery by the financial services sector, feds, or both.

call me ahab said...

"just suffering from bailout fatigue"

no kidding manny-

it's like the new "post traumatic stress syndrome"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posttraumatic_stress_disorder

call me ahab said...

morning- read this from Yahoo Finance-

"Thousands of U.S. homes tainted by Chinese drywall should be gutted, according to new guidelines released Friday by the Consumer Product Safety Commission."

so . . .sometimes the best price isn't the best deal

China needs to bone up on things that effect people's health- like lead in paint used in children's toys- and I don't know how many here have made it to Beijing- but trust me- the air quality leaves a lot to be desired

call me ahab said...

. . .and also- not trying to convert anyone on the eve of probably the most meaningful of Christian celebrations-

but if you are so inclined- check it out-

Come join the slowest-growing religion in the world - it only requires that you abide-

http://dudeism.com/

McFearless said...

"Today just felt weird all around"

I feel it's this way all the time anymore. Maybe because of my age?

Seriously though, when you sit there and watch, for example, people pour all over the BLS data, data that includes an adjustment that is basically just a made up guess, and we all rush to see "what impact it will have on markets" and make lists of the positives and negatives, how can you not call it weird.

Nic said...

Wow, I have been a dude for some time and didn't realise :)

I guess we were all a bit dumb thinking the MBS QE would just end. The Bloomberg story at the beginning of the week and Geithner's comments re FNM and FRE made it pretty clear what was happening.

A chart to cheer you up Manny ...
http://www.forecast-chart.com/great-depression-stock-chart-nl.html

AmenRa said...

I think we all knew that QE would be continued in some form or fashion. Without it the house of cards would come tumbling down.

DL said...

“watch…people pour all over the BLS data, data that includes an adjustment that is basically just a made up guess… and make lists of the positives and negatives”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That’s why they make the big bucks.

karen said...

Proscitto missed my bengal cat fotos ! walnut is loved and lucky.. and assuredly smart if given attention! Mine used to come running home when I called them.. and walked by my side (no leashes) to the ocean lookout.. I must say, however, LOL about him thinking ahab had a dog.. i guess from your icon (or whatever it is called!)

Anonymous said...

Happy Easter to everyone on planet Earth and anyone peeping from the universe.

I am sure there is life on other planet(s). Why not?

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