SPXBullish short day. Boring. Midpoint stayed above 10 SMA. Back above fibo ext 85.4%. No daily 3LB changes. Only 2 more days of QE!!!
DXYBearish spinning top day. Gann 2x1 level failed. Uptrend is back (so far so good). No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish short day. Tested the 50% fibo ext and failed. Did not hold the 21 SMA. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.
GOLDDoji day. Still below the 89 and 21 SMA's. Held the 144 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal up with reversal now 1088.80.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint is still below the 10 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is coming soon. No daily 3LB changes. Head fake?
10YR BONDBearish harami day. Closed above weekly 3LB reversal price of 38.62. The last three days form a short term wedge. No daily 3LB changes.
61 comments:
Thx Ra-
some thoughts from the previous thread-
can the S&P get to 1300?
well- I never thought it would get this high- but consider-
earnings could be stellar- companies still working on skeleton crews-
could drive the market for the rest of the year-
however- from a macro perspective- things look woeful-
maybe the fix is in for another year or two-
however- in my estimation this country is past its zenith-
we are going the way of Europe- the majority dependent on the government for their livelihood and survival-
especially now with health care passed-
what is America about anymore- what is our purpose-
beats the hell out of me- but maybe we'll have little bakeries and cafes on every corner w/ excellent baguettes and espresso- subsidized of course- so we can all partake
@ahab: Shhhhhh, don't tell anyone but I've already turned bullish. It's not based on anything logical or rational though, which means I'm probably right. Not really acting on it though, so does it count?
This is merely a replay of '04-'07. I think this bubble won't go as long, maybe 2-3 years instead of 4, so this thing will probably burst by '11 or '12 at the latest (and will be worse than the prior two combined), just in time for the elections. Until then, party on.
@ahab: It's "purpose"? LOL. It's "get rich or die trying", IMO. Been that for 2-3 decades now. Only intensifies with the passing of time.
March has been a long TRADING month...
23 trading days (exempt from holidays)... By contrast, January had 19 market OPEN days, February also had 19...
Those were not to mention the week long closure of the Chinese markets...
This amounts to almost a full extra week of trading... They're just trying to get this horse into the barn so they can close the quarter and bank their bonuses...
It doesn't help when Citi & BofA are 25% of all the volume...
I think I'm going to start a new INDICATOR on this blog... At the beginning of next quarter, the portfolio will consist of 20% long Citi, 20% long BAC, 20% long GM, + 40% long Treasuries...
Just for fun... Let's see how AMERICA does...
@Jeff
No chance that this will end up like '04-'07...
Ok... I'll give it .000000001% chance (just for statistical purposes)...
Newsflash! NIKKEI breaks 11K (again).
@cv: Not the same exact thing per se but my point is I'm beginning to think this particular bubble can be pumped for longer than we think, just like that time period when everyone was thinking it was insane that it had even gone past '05-'06.
Meaning the bubble won't be in housing, but in stocks and commodities and any other perceived asset they can pump to oblivion with the free Banana Ben bucks.
manny-
have you ever wondered how Germany always rises from the ashes?
that country has been beat down- defeated and conquered- but alas- you can't keep them down-
war reparations and insolvency after WWI, tanks in Berlin- firebombing of Dresden during WWII- partitioned after-
yet they live and they prosper- because they pride themselves on their industriousness-
that shit doesn't happen by accident-
our purpose? Are we to keep the mantle of the modern day Roman Empire- bases around the world- spreading our values and way of life- for good or for bad around the world- or-
are we an insular Republic- protective of our way of life- defending it to the end- as we were in our early years-
my opinion- we need a new mission statement
@ahab
Remember... It was the VISIGOTHS (essentially a Germanic tribe) who basically sacked Rome in the end...
At that point, it didn't require much effort... They just walked in and were welcomed by many...
Obama has us down this path... By the time he leaves office, Americans will be 'begging' the Saudis to take us over...
"Banana Ben bucks."
and as I have said-
they- the Fed and USG- will continue doing what they are doing until they are slapped down by the market- with failed auctions and rising costs to finance the debt-
hasn't happened yet
CV-
Obama-
what can be said- I'm not a fan-
all his initiatives are aimed on government dependency up and down the food chain
@ahab: Couldn't agree more but it ain't gonna happen. The majority of our problems are cultural. It's going to take a real calamity for things to really change. Until then, hop on the bubble express. Nobody's selling and the low volume melt up continues unabated. Wait until Joe/Jane Retail hop on this thing in earnest. Then we'll really see the fireworks and absurdity taken to new highs (lows?). With low volume day after day after day and the perception the Fed's got your back, this thing is as closed to "fixed" as it can be. Until the volume comes back, that is.......when that happens, watch out.
@Jeff (8:35)
I'd caution everyone not to get ahead of themselves...
The SPX is up around 11% since the closing low in February... BAC/C/AIG & friends have been more than 25% of the daily volume on shares exchanged...
Here are some various numbers since the same time period:
C (up 40%)
BAC (up 30%)
AIG (up 80%) - since February
M (up 45%)
FNM (up 30%)
Simon Property Group (up 25%)
Freeport McMoran (up 25%)
Ford (up 40%)
TLT (down 2%)
How long do you suppose Obama can continue to finance the ever increasing debt burdens he's putting on the US taxpayer for his pet projects... Yields for T-Bills are essentially ZERO (so there is hardly any rollover interest in those), and the long end of the curve is getting more expensive by the day...
Since he's never run so much as a Dairy Queen in his life, I don't expect him to understand such things, but hey, that's why I didn't vote for him...
I suppose you're doing just Jim Dandy though if you own AIG or Citi shares (and they account for most of the S&P movements)... Probably makes one sleep real easy at night...
As long as his banker friends get their bonuses though, I suppose we're on the path to prosperity...
I hear you, cv, and maybe you'll be right, but I'm just worn out trying to defend what I think is the more thoughtful, rational bear case. It pays to be neither in our culture today.
CV-
the markets couldn't care less about Obama-
they would bag him in a moment if policies weren't to their liking-
but really- who is running the show-
Bernanke-
Obama on the other hand is all in on creating government nirvana-
which is an impossibility- but he doesn't give a shit what monetary policies are-
as long as it is all dependent on the USG to create the wealth-
because the USG is all powerful- lol
@CV, it's not just US, it's Japan, Ireland(taking over banks today), Greece, Dubai,( and the rest of the world). Even students are defaulting...no reprecussions on their job prospects?
What's the purpose of life on this rock?
@Jeff
Obama has raised the debt ceiling TWICE since he's been in office...
TWICE!
At the present trajectory, it will be surpassed (and in need of another raise within 8 months)...
It doesn't seem there's much interest in T-Bill rollovers...
China, isn't taking much down anymore...
@Anon: "Get rich or die (or default) trying". There it is. No consequences for being irresponsible, idiotic, and criminal.
@cv: OK, so when will it matter? It seems like we can pretend it all away.....for a while anyway.
So what's the more likely scenario...
1. Scare some dumb ass money out of equities for a bit to fund some T-Bill purchases... And keep the long end in check as well...
2. Run BofA stock to $30 bucks and have the US Government default on it's debt obligations...
@ahab (9:27)
Great... Then if Bernanke is running the show, he should understand BETTER what I laid out (9:34)...
@cv: People have been predicting the debt bomb armargeddon scenario in Japan for how long now? And what's happened other than a zombie economy? And their debt situation is FAR worse than ours is. Perhaps we'll be the least bad of a bad lot in the world and end up coming out OK somehow, at least for a few more years until the next crisis? Just playing devil's advocate.
my impression-
in the end-
we have become the weak and lazy people-
unable to fend for ourselves- needing the government to provide-
but maybe that's the way it goes- you go out- conquer and defend and prosper-
then kick back and take in the spoils-
until the conquer and defend and prosper part just seems to scary- and-
then it's another's turn to go out and make their way
@Jeff (9:31)
That's just it...
Joe Retail knows ZERO about government funding... Hell, he barely knows anything about stocks...
All he knows is that he sees the DOW & S&P green every single day...
He doesn't realize that you CAN'T "pretend it all away" (even if you have the printing press)...
I mean, look at what a friggin CIRCUS it is in Greece (especially with Papandreou laughingly telling everyone they will put their house in order)...
Obama is about to become that same clown...
@Jeff
Japan was stalled because they had savings...
America doesn't
Good points, cv. Thanks for the reminder on that. I need to keep rehashing over this stuff to remind myself that I'm not going insane.
On another note, BR seeing some "weakness" or "technical deterioration" in the markets.
Que sera sera. Arrgghhh!!!
Manny
Technical deterioration started with QE.
Manny, what is this:
"People have been predicting the debt bomb armargeddon scenario in Japan for how long now? And what's happened other than a zombie economy?"
Dude, their stock market was down over 80% from it's peak in March 2009...among other things. I'd say that's pretty damn bad.
Bubbles built on excessive credit never end well, but they aren't the armageddon end of the world, you rebuild and move forward, people (not you, economists) need to stop acting like deflation is the end of the world.
@Jeff (9:36)
WRONG!
Played to the EXTREME... (every country deciding to default all at once in a "race to the bottom" currency debasement)...
America still suffers, because America cannot payout on entitlement obligations (which are essentially in PONZI status as we speak)...
- No more health services
- No more Social Security or Social Welfare
- Infrastructure crumbles (police, military, schools)
- Mass unemployment (we hardly manufacture any GOODS any more... Who TF needs 'services'?)...
Finally, there would be mobs in the streets, not just this hypothetical crap we talk about on blogs...
@Amen
TECHNICAL DETERIORATION STARTED IN 1913
I have to give it to BR, I don't think he called the bottom as much as he'd like to think, but who cares, you don't need to call the bottom. What has been impressive is him during the last six months because that is the time it has been most difficult to keep a long biased and he has hung really strong.
I still believe a major top is at hand and what is to follow won't be that lame ass Morgan Stanley chart he puts up but if he nails the turn that would be sweet.
@cv: But as the world's reserve currency, we can just print, no?
@ben: That's a good point, but our stock market, for all it's propensity for bubbles recently, never reached those bubblicious territories of the NIKKEI (36K), no?
And, like you said, I agree, the world "didn't end" in Japan as a result. Many were talking much more dire ramifications, however, (namely sovereign default) for Japan than we've seen. How long can it go on? I don't think anyone really knows. Could be decades or more for all we know.
@ben
If Bernanke INSISTS, I mean REALLY INSISTS on trying to "thread the needle" with inflation, and keeps doing it as he has this past year, it's just going to continue to play itself out (on the margin) in commodity prices...
Now here's the thing... For awhile, I thought that that could be contained in a "benign" way in precious metals (after all - people don't have to eat those or drive their cars with them)... But it seems that CENTRAL BANKS, who understand the likely need to procure precious metals, at the end of the FIATSCO, want to collude to keep these prices down...
Enter the greedy bankers... If they are unable to call up the price of precious metals up, they'll simply move on to other raw materials and soft commodities...
These fuckers are LOCUSTS... Give them money and leverage and they'll go after whatever they can bid up... I used to think people were sensible, but I've realized after a year that they're more like VIRUSES... They attack the host organ and simply try to mutate to a new host organism when one is completely consumed...
So "continued" QE will simply end up in what I described... It WILL end up in "hyperinflation"... Of course, the hyperinflation will end up in a depression...
Therefore, if it is the goal of Bernanke to pursue the present course, UNCHECKED, he will have succeeded to bring about BOTH of the worst worlds... (one, then the other)...
In his zeal to avoid one... Which would have been a setback, but could have been muddled through... He will PROLONG the problem, and force us to suffer through BOTH...
The ONLY two things I'm happy about owning these days are FOOD & ARABLE LAND...
Manny,
In some ways we didn't quite reach the bubbleness of Japan but I would not make that point with the stock market. Stocks were so unbelievably overvalued in 2000 and again in 20007 I think one could argue it was very close if not in some ways worse.
@Mannwich
"We can just PRINT"...
Just PRINTING, taken to the extreme, leads to hyperinflation... So read my (10:05) for my thoughts on THAT...
JUST PRINTING would make things WORSE than the "deflationary" pressures...
That's the problem with this country... Most people don't even know what the GD was, but they have it in their psyche that it is something to ABSOLUTELY AVOID...
I doubt the Weimar Republic would have the same opinion...
"Could be decades or more for all we know.'
exactly manny- as long as everyone is willing to play along-
as Sgt Schultz said from Hogans Heroes-
"I know nothing- I see nothing"
@Ben
At least when the Nikkei tumbled, Japan was largely and EXPORT nation (and furthermore, had markets like the US [flush with a dot.com economy], emerging China, and a Europe in expansion mode to the Eastern European nations)...
It softened the blow...
Who does the US really export to? (goods, I mean)...
Unless someone thinks that they have to hire an American Starbucks worker to run their outlet...
@ahab @manny
NO... It can't go on for decades longer just because everyone is willing to play along...
If that were the case, then what's the point in all this charade...
Hey my friends... It's working now, it's worked the past year... I've got an idea... Let's just PRINT 900 quadrillion dollars tomorrow and hand it all out to all Americans to pay off all their debts, and bring themselves back square...
Why all the fucking waiting around?
FOLLOW THAT LOGIC and you'll understand why it can't just go on for decades "as long as everyone is willing to play along"...
Jesus Christ!
Idiot economics is starting to actually turn smart people into idiots...
Come on Jeff... Help me out here...
We can "just print"... What the hell are we waiting for?
Let's just PRINT a quadrillion or two and buy a couple hundred years of oil supply from the Saudis...
That ought to tide us over... I'm sure they'd be happy with all those mega petro-dollars...
You keep pumping - we'll keep printing...
I hope we don't run out of ink before they run out of oil...
CV-
dude- you aren't following me-
it's like mulligans- forever-
never a bad hit- as long as you can keep hitting-
my point is- we can be in for a period of never ending QE's and ZIRP's-
non-stop critical care to keep the patient alive
"Let's just PRINT 900 quadrillion dollars tomorrow and hand it all out to all Americans to pay off all their debts, and bring themselves back square..."
wow- now that makes sense-
why didn't Obama think of that? lol
I'm just going to print this here because I have no desire to go over to BR's blog and take down A FRIGGIN TOOL...
---
cognos Says:
March 29th, 2010 at 9:54 pm
I’m not sure this is a “technical” and I’ve posted it before, including posting it in late Jan…
but the first 6-10 days of the month have been fantastic the last 8 months (since last Aug). I think 3 of the 8 months have opened with 6-8 straight positive days. I think 7 of 8 have been up significantly 3-8% over the first half of the month.
The second half of the month has been the trouble spot… with Oct month-end and Jan month-end the serious bottoms (and buying opportunities!). So if we pulled back >2% here… I’d play hard into April 1. But its still good risk reward from here… to play to 1220 in the first half of April.
The last 8 months, the pattern has been +10-15%, followed by a 5-10% correction. Given that we hit 1150 on SPX around Jan 15… we could see a higher level here (1200-1250) before another 5-10% pull back.
Either way…technically it remains a “buy the dips” market.
---
This is EXACTLY the s*** that pisses me off...
OK, first he quantifies the "past 8 months"... The past 8 months stretch back to August... He generalizes by saying 10-15% ups and 5-10% downs... The range is somewhat correct, but it's misleading...
Also, to assume that just because the market did that the past 8 months, and therefore to continue?
To put it in perspective, with those ratios, we'd be 1400 by August, and ALL TIME HIGHS by November...
If that happens, then I quit blogging...
@cv: cognos is a clown. Don't fall into his trap, but his "type" is also making money hand over fist right now (if he's to be believed).
Don't get me wrong, in theory, I agree with you and most others here, but I've been questioning the legitimacy of our arguments just to try to "see the other side" and make sure that I talk it through over and over again to ensure that I'm not missing something. If it's all extend & pretend uber alles, then why can't this just go on for longer than anyone can imagine if enough simply play along. Rationally, it would seem that it can't, but I just don't know anymore. When idiots rule, it might be time to join them, not try to beat them.
@cv: I'm not saying it makes any sense at all either. Maybe it never will or won't for a really, really long time?
I'm not trying BEAT any idiots...
I'm just trying not to BE ONE myself...
But thanks for the conversation...
I've gotta get some sleep now... G-Nite!
CV-
cognos??
basically a genius-
at least in his own mind-
he'll be taken down a notch or two before this is all over
@ahab: cognos is a total dick. He won't be around when the bottom falls out. Bank on it. Personally, I think he's the same character as the first Wanger. Same person.
manny-
what happened to the 2nd Wanger?
and fwiw- I have been very consistent in my views-
however- being knee deep in the trenches of the housing boom-
all I can say- it lasted way way way beyond what I thought was possible-
when you had builder's raising their prices $100,000 in one day on a $500,000 home-
well what can be expected- but a big crash
@ahab: No idea, but I thought he had turned bearish, so he's been wrong lately too.
Agree with you about bubbles. The economy sucks, for sure, and most thinking, sane people outside of the Wall Street and DC bubbles know it, but it's nudge-nudge-wink-wink time on "getting in" while you can and "out before everyone else". People never fucking learn.
And the Fed's policies don't help. Some people are no doubt feeling FORCED in the game chasing yield and speculating with the herd again when many would much rather be in savings or other low risk investments.
This is not the most exciting party I've happened upon here.. more or less wishing I had stayed away..
I can't add anything except to take in the moon tonight.. wow!
manny-
I am heading off to bed-
my final thought is -
the more people who believe in the inevitability of the Fed's reflation play-
the sooner the turn will come
karen-
give a howl or two for me while you are out "moon gazing" (-:!!!
will check in in the morning
@ahab: Precisly been my premise. Perception rules....until it doesn't.
Good night all.
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