Morning Audibles 4.1.10 - April Fools Day

"A FOOL and his money are soon parted" (Thomas Tusser - English Farmer/Writer, 1524-1580, who also said "Sweet April Showers do spring May flowers")...


Speaking of Fools (and April), here's how Wall St. works to make the logic of Tusser come true.


It starts with these two guys (shown here paying a visit to their sock puppet sugar daddy rich uncle). They then proceed to play version of 3 card monte [probably with tarot cards]. They bid up equity prices day in and day out, exchanging them between themselves. So as to not look so obvious doing it, they focus on "single digit midgets" (like C, AIG, FNM, FRE), or shares that are hanging around somebody's REPO shelf.


On the first 2-3 days of each month then, a big transfer occurs.


These MoMo's (money managers), appear to the masses to be hard working types, pouring over charts & analysis all month & interested in nothing more that YOU being able to retire in semi-luxury in that retirement McGolf community.



I always wanted to have this guy in my foursome...


Of course it was YOUR money that the MoMo's used for that transaction (the money YOU NEVER saw because it was whisked out of your paycheck, and into your 401k account for the Momo to distribute while he fancied himself being THIS GUY).




Instead, THIS GUY, just made "A million dollars"
Now OTOH, if you're a "trader" of this phenomenon, it's probably just best to wait until all these transactions have taken place, and if you're a market BEAR, that opportunity won't likely come until next Tuesday or so.




Any questions? You could perhaps refer them to Tusser, who also said, "Methesulah lived to be 969 years old. You boys & girls will see more in the next 50 years than Methesulah saw in his whole lifetime"... And Tusser said THAT in the 1500's...



227 comments:

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McFearless said...

asia strong overnight and here comes the 'big news'

CV said...

For all you people out there with 401k's, ask your FUND MANAGER how many shares of Citi & BofA he bought for you over the weekend at these prices...

Then tune in to the "24 hour Dick Bove channel" to keep yourself feeling good...

McFearless said...

C,

Truth be told, this past month my best investment was C (as a defacto owner that is)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny's comment yesterday about CMBS, and the Zero Hedge article really caught my attention. Did the rest of you realize the deliquency rate on CMBS's had quadrupled in 12 months?

(Leftback, that means it is now 4 times larger than it was 12 months ago....you are welcome.)

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/summers/Realpoint%20March.jpg

CV said...

Manufacturing in U.S. Probably Accelerated, Propelling Growth

Number of times the words, "may", "probably", or "hopeful" in short article = 11

Excerpt:
Rising demand in the U.S. and Asia, combined with the need to restock inventories, is giving a boost to companies from Honeywell International Inc. to Boeing Co. A factory rebound may also help propel employment gains throughout the economy, one reason analysts anticipate a government report tomorrow will show payrolls rose in March by the most in three years.

Hmmm...
Honeywell (avionics) + Boeing (aircraft) + rising payroll numbers (census workers)

I didn't know the government was planning to send the census hires door to door in airplanes!

CV said...

@McF

You call "C" an investment?

I know, I know... You HAVE to own it... I'm referring more to nomenclature here.

Prashant said...

My recent experience is that I short and then exit at a loss, as everything keeps climbing. Now in such a scenario, I should be sitting out and waiting. The problem is the moment I am out, I start having this feeling that everything will go down without any apparent reason, and, I will be sitting out. Leaves me kind of sick in the gut. Just saying.
By the way, Gold trying to catch up with Silver. There has been a disconnect there. Can't figure it out.

call me ahab said...

"Steel Prices Set to Soar" CNBC

what more do you need to know-

get some steel today if not sooner

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Top Stories

Geithner: Jobless Rate to Stay 'Unacceptably High'- AP

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday it's "deeply unfair" that some financial institutions that got taxpayer-paid bailouts are emerging in better shape from the recession than millions of ordinary Americans.


..Well, dumbass, you are one of the main reasons it occured this way...but that is the GS way..

Nic said...

The Irish banks were bad and the German ones are good, right? Wrong: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-imf-warns-about-german-banks-and-thats-bad-news-for-frances-too-2010-3

Anonymous said...

Morgan Stanley could earn at least $23 million and as much $134 million for its work advising the govt. on the sale of its Citigroup sale - dealbook.blog.nytimes.com/2010/03/31.

What's their to advise?. The govt. should get a discount brokerage account.

Tyler said...

at first glance, I thought she was grabbing his bag (plane pic above) ... would have been funnier if she was

Anonymous said...

@ Parshant, I know I asked this question before. Who sells LNG(cooking containers) in India? Is it Reliance, GAIL, or someone else? I know there is real shortage of cooking LNG in northern states in India.

Mannwich said...

Wow, quite the beat down on TLT this morning.

Prashant said...

Cooking Gas through containers in India is sold, by BPCL, HPCL, maybe IOC too and GAIL also has some set up for supplying Piped gas. Yes, there is a shortage as the prices are administered.
As per Reliance, there is still this dispute between the 2 brothers but that would determine the price of Gas for Power generation. I am not sure if RIL has started their gas distribution in South India. It is due to start in the next couple of years but again the pricing is something which is not clear yet.

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: And his answer to you (and me) would be: "life's not fair, dumbass. I was just helping my friends so they'll help on the rebound". ;-)

CV said...

@Amen

5 greens...

Mannwich said...

Monday should be a thriller. Today's just the preview of what's to come. The Sheeple are creeping back in the game baby! The idiot bubble is back with a vengeance. A nation of gamblers never learns.

CV said...

1 "emini" contract just made you $500 in the first 5 minutes...

Mannwich said...

Wow, FXP gettin smoked.

AmenRa said...

CV

I know. I Know. Arrgghhh!!!!

Prashant said...

EURJPY has now retraced back to its late January levels.

call me ahab said...

the market is just making up for lost ground yesterday-

any dip must be negated

AmenRa said...

If the ISM is BTE there will be MAJOR short covering. They will not want to be short over the weekend. Bulls have thrown down the gauntlet.

Mannwich said...

There you go, ahab. That's the spirit. And negated immediately out of the gate. We did get a "dip" yesterday after all. lol

Anonymous said...

@Ahab, re steel, two stories form Bloomberg.com/news/regions/

One filed under Canada,"Xstrata raises coal prices as much as 40% for Japan",

One filed under India,"Mittal stokes conflict with carmakers by predicting 21% steel price jump(due to raw materials price increases).

While donot know the bigger picture, it seems Ems are hot while developed economies struggling.

call me ahab said...

and this iPad thing-

WTF?

non-stop chatter- about what exactly?

I don't get it

CV said...

@Manny

I doubt it...

My take is that they'll rig this thing so that Monday STARTS strong...

(so most of the rest of today they'll go around and fill gaps)...

I've been saying for better than 2 weeks now that I think the FINAL NOTE on this particular wave will come in around 1183...

Maybe we hit that on Monday...

If it goes significantly higher than that, I'll reconsider...

I'd be watching the 10y & 30y yields... (4 & 5 handles on those might start the equity correction - along with a VIX in the low 16's)...

Mannwich said...

I guess the so-called "fade Mannwich" strategy isn't exactly working.......yet.

Mannwich said...

@ahab: It's a giant I-phone without the phone feature. That's it but if you go on the premise that most people are idiots and sheep and care only about superficial trendy things, it will be hit with our culture.

Anonymous said...

CV,

That bull/bear cartoon says it all. STL

Mannwich said...

Goldman lowers its jobs number forecast. Here we go again with lowering the bar and then "beating" handily. What a farce but everyone doesn't mind playing along, so we off we go. They lie to us and we pretend to believe them. It works. For now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-we-go-goldman-lowers-tomorrows-nfp-forecast-275k-200k

Anonymous said...

Holy SCO, batman. STL

Mannwich said...

I like this quote from Timmay: "The financial system WAS (past tense, "was?") run in a crazy way?"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/01/geithner-bailouts-deeply_n_521320.html

Excuse me Timmay - what exactly has changed?

Mannwich said...

Headline over at Huffpo says it all: "iWant". How many trendy tech gadgets can people medicate themselves with?

call me ahab said...

i don't know- is it just me- or would more people like a chance to punch that dude in front of the Lexus-

of course- maybe he is a nice guy and only superficial on the outside- doubtful

CV said...

@ahab

Dude... That guy in the photo is Marcus Schrenker...

call me ahab said...

manny-

while folks are wiling there time away coveting and fawning over techno gizmos-

the whole of America's ability to have a middle class is shipped overseas

call me ahab said...

never heard of him

CV said...

@ahab

We don't need no stinkin' MIDDLE CLASS!

CV said...

@ahab

he's that investment manager who screwed people and then tried to get out of it by faking his own death by jumping out of his airplane...

Mannwich said...

@ahab: That is hilarious. I had a good laugh at that photo though. He looks like a young Denny Hecker. Well, Google him. He's become a TC car salesman "icon" of sorts for many not so positive reasons.

Anonymous said...

@Parshant, thanks for your 9:32.

call me ahab said...

CV-

well- I guess my impression of him in the picture was pretty much on the money- lol

Mannwich said...

Is that right, cv? Well, there you go. Denny might not even be in his "league", but I'm sure Tom Petters is/was.....

He's also sitting in a jail cell right now.

Anonymous said...

@Amen, You'll like front page cartoon at marketwatch.com today.

Mannwich said...

Speaking of tools, Jamie Dimon's upset that we're all "picking on the poor, poor banks". Can this saga get any more bizarre?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/jamie-dimon-complains-about-demonization-of-megabanks.html

call me ahab said...

health care-

"with regard to adult children, the legislation mandates that insurers will now have to provide dependent coverage up to age 26 for all individual and group policies.'

this will bump up premiums-

whatever happened to children striking out on their own- making their own way in life-

before long I'll be able to get on my dad's policy- and he's 80

karen said...

wow! i almost missed the melt up! overslept cuz i didn't sleep.. got coffee and am noting the dollar is still okay..

CV said...

@Amen

I think the Euro bounce has "had it" here (and will likely get pounded over the weekend - where there is a holiday weekend observed Friday in the US and Monday in Europe)...

They'll still be able to call equities a little higher, maybe, on Monday, but if BUCKY is strong, I think there's a limit to where equities can go for a few weeks (until the Euro settles in around 129)...

CV said...

@Manny

Maybe he meant to say "DIMON-ization"...

Speaking of demons... Did you all know Obama nicknamed the Presidential Limo "the BEAST"...?

I-Man said...

I-Man is watching 1178.

call me ahab said...

another iPad article-

"How's RIM faring after its report or Apple ahead of the iPad launch?"

so . . .Apollo 11 and landing on the moon got nothing on the iPad-

how far we have fallen in 40 years

Mannwich said...

Meanwhile, in other "news":

http://www.theonion.com/video/packers-fan-announces-he-will-return-to-drinking-f,14397/

http://www.theonion.com/video/kentucky-violated-ncaa-rules-while-recruiting-bask,17041/

CV said...

CV is buying some FXP down here...

Nic said...

Matzo and Prunes with Dave:
https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7not0MAZdrXMTUyZGYxYWQtOGQ4Mi00YmY4LTk4MjItMWM0ODNmZmY5N2M1&hl=en

call me ahab said...

"overslept cuz i didn't sleep'

karen- explain this obvious contradiction(-:!!

Mannwich said...

Goldman selling to Johnny-come-lately?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-selling-several-thousand-sp-large-contracts-1177

CV said...

@karen

It happens to me all the time :-)

Mannwich said...

Another view that the widely-held "perception" is that the gov't will rescue those who are in the markets...

and can control the economy and said markets. Erroneous view longer term, but it seems that the actions of our gov't have made moral hazard THE only policy choice (people now think they will ALWAYS be bailed out for their actions), so the bubble reflates (which is what the Feds want but what they don't get is that the higher this goes, the worse it will eventually be when it cracks again)....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deep-thoughts-fx-concepts-john-taylor-they-still-think-government-will-save-them

call me ahab said...

"Goldman Lowers Tomorrow's NFP Forecast From +275K To +200K" Zero Hedge

so when it comes in at 300,000- it's a huge beat and the market rallies-

sneaky bastards

Mannwich said...

Hey ahab come lately. I already posted that one 30 minutes ago! lol.

CV said...

@Manny (10:31)

"it seems that the actions of our gov't have made moral hazard THE only policy choice (people now think they will ALWAYS be bailed out for their actions)

We crossed the RUBICON right about here...

Mannwich said...

That's it right there, cv. That's the WHOLE basis for this recent rally and I think the Feds not only are fine with that, they WANT this perception to rule because they know the only possible way out of this is reflation of everything, hence another bubble is DESIRED. They won't say this openly, of course, but they want another bubble thinking they can then "manage" it before it gets too out of control and pops again. That's hubris and arrogance on a grand scale, but what do you expect from this crew? They are "special" and "really smart" after all. They've been told so their whole lives.

call me ahab said...

goddamit manny-

stealing my thunder again I see(-:!!!

call me ahab said...

from Nic's article- paraphrasing-

"adjusting for the dynamics of inventory- real GDP only managed 1.6% in the last quarter- and that's after 15 trillion in budget deficits,, ZIRP and a 2.3 trillion Fed balance sheet"

no wonder we have had such an incredible rally- lol

CV said...

@ahab

The "green shoots" (from last year), never actually made it out of their tiny little PEAT POTS...

CV said...

On the "green shoots" front...

Our government seems to want to grow a BONSAI FOREST...

CV said...

Notice how "bonsai" rhymes with "ponzi"

call me ahab said...

manny @ 10:31-

"The Europeans and the Americans will eventually realize that their leaders, both in power and out of power, do not have the answers and will not be able to rescue them."

that has always been my thinking

karen said...

This makes so much sense given the price of crude:

"Airline Index -XAL- flirting with 2010 and 2008 highs"

Mannwich said...

@ahab: I think that most people deep down already know it, but again, people are delusional and we're alwasy taught to not be "negative" or a "pessimist" our "you gotta just think positive thoughts" and "good things will happen, so it's been ingrained in us to believe the impossible, in fairy tales, if you will, since about the '80's and the "sunny optimism" of Reagan.

Mannwich said...

Fading a bit here.

CV said...

@Manny

We should have NEVER won that hockey game against the USSR in 1980...

That "fixed us" for good... :-)

karen said...

an interview with Bill Fleckenstein.. a good listen.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/audio/bill-fleckenstein-fed-public-enemy-number-one.mp3

CV said...

That "channeling stocks dot com" guy could probably go into retirement all over again just using the dollar as proxy off the December low...

Anonymous said...

"Canadians not living within their means -CIBC , Toronto Sun". When did this bank become paragon of virtue -invloved with Enron and worldcom scandles? In 2009 meltdown, Cdn banks survived because the govt. took all the risk by backstopping the mortgages through CHMC. They borrow low and make the spread, guaranteed!

In Canada, banks muddle in govt. policies and peoples' financial affairs all the time( no pun intented). Recently, read TD bank telling CB to hold on raising rates, telling govt. to raise taxes to balance budgets. These CEOs get bonuses, is beyond belief. Corruption in broad day light.

Mannwich said...

cv: There you go! That's probably when it started and then reached its zenith when the iron curtain fell. We got cocky after that.

CV said...

See for all you people out there who don't have PATTERN MATCHER technology, CV is going to tell you how it's done...

See... what you do is... "You BUY low, and you SELL high"

Got that?

call me ahab said...

manny @ 10:57

it reminds me of that book- The Secret- haven't read it- but the gist of it from what I understand is that if you "want" something- to project those thoughts and it will appear- or some shit like that

I-Man said...

Dont fade the Secret, Ahab... there's some good wisdom there.

AmenRa said...

Anon

Funny cartoon. The rest of it probably has BB's clone turning it back on.

CV said...

@ahab

How does that work for those guys in "Men Who Stare at Goats"?

Mannwich said...

Exactly ahab. And that book was a best-seller. I think it's helped create a nation of narcissists and sociopaths. If I WANT it badly enough and do whatever it takes, I'll get it and be entitled to it, and then some. It's I-mine.

Mannwich said...

@I-Man: There's definitely some good wisdom there but taken to extremes it becomes a weakness.

Mannwich said...

Weather just stunning here AGAIN too, Bruce. Weird, wacky weather. Another high 70's summer-esque day. Going to go for Happy Hour at Brit's roofdeck downtown. Nobody appreciates good weather more than the folks in Minny.

karen said...

Bruce, you must have missed LB's post informing us he was taking a golf day today... apparently the NE weather god is attempting to make up for bad behaviour.

CV said...

70's here as well... & sunny

... and will be thru Sunday... awesome!

karen said...

We had rain in the night... blue skies now but it is a FREEZING 48 degrees! supposed to reach low 60s if we don't get more rain.. crazy!

call me ahab said...

CV-

I saw that movie- that scene when they were trying to "imagine" what was in the filing cabinet-

reminded me of a real episode of Penn & Teller's show Bullshit on Showtime-

they had actual"psychic" types try to "project" the image of a picture held in the hand's of Penn-

everybody was way off- and I mean- not even close-

Penn had a field day w/ that- it was hysterical

Mannwich said...

More records being broken on the Frannie front. And not ones to be proud of.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/following-fannies-record-delinquencies-freddie-just-reported-new-record-loans-seriously-deli

call me ahab said...

. . .and then on another episode- there was this chick in California who was taking a class on having her baby (pregnant she was) in the water with a family of dolphins-

fucking dolphins!!!! As if they wanted this chick bothering them-

it was hysterical

karen said...

copper moved a bit higher today.. if things don't turn next week, then that is that.. the sky in the limit.

call me ahab said...

taking a bike ride and rolling out-

all have a good day!!!

Mannwich said...

On another note, I found HarryWanger. Seems he's over at ZH and has a picture next to his profile.

by HarryWanger
on Thu, 04/01/2010 - 10:23
#283060

"William Fleckenstein was famously and correctly described as a fraudster in the Sixth Circuit case Moross Limited Partnership vs. Fleckenstein Capital, Inc."

By whom, you?? The jury didn't seem to think so. I hate when people lose money and try to blame someone else. Another frivolous suit that got shot down and the only winners were the attorneys, as usual.

CV said...

@karen

It's time to put the copper chart through one of these...

http://www.tpub.com/content/construction/14265/img/14265_100_1.jpg

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen:

Then I will spare him my usual needling...I suspect someone is taking his money as we speak.

..We'll need a full report tomorrow.

Nic said...

Poor Bucky has blood all over the floor in fxland

CV said...

@Nic

Bucky will be just fine... I can tell your LAB is keeping an eye on it for all of us...

I'd say it (bucky) still has about .005% of room to find buyers...

Can't everyone see the setup here?

Tuesday of next week is when equities sell off...

- Dollar rises
- Technical barriers are reached all across the board (30yy "5", 10yy "4", SPX 1183, VIX 16)...

This is a perfect storm...

AmenRa said...

http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2010/04/040110_RailTraffic.aspx

AAR Reports Carloads at Highest Weekly Level Since November '08
18 of 19 Commodity Groups Up from 2009 Comparison Week

WASHINGTON, D.C. - April 1, 2010 - Freight traffic on U.S. railroads is continuing to show solid signs of recovery with carload freight volume hitting its highest level since November 2008 during the week ended March 27, 2010, the Association of American Railroads reported today.

U.S. railroads originated 293,114 carloads during the week, up 16.5 percent from the comparable week in 2009, but down 11.6 percent from 2008. This was the highest weekly carload total since the week ended November 29, 2008. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR now reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.

Intermodal traffic totaled 210,914 trailers and containers, up 12 percent from last year but down 5.3 percent compared with 2008. Compared with the same week in 2009, container volume increased 14.4 percent and trailer volume edged up 0.3 percent. Compared with the same week in 2008, container volume was up 2.1 percent while trailer volume fell 32.3 percent.

Total volume for the week was estimated at 31.7 billion ton-miles, up 17.4 percent from last year but down 9.2 percent from 2008.

Nic said...

Moody's and S&P win dismissal of a big mortgage lawsuit: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0111344620100401

DL said...

Sold all my longs this morning.

Maybe we go a bit higher next week, but the ice is a little too thin for me right now.

CV said...

@Amen Ra (12:28)

Freight = Chinese buying coal

You see... You need a lot of steel re-bar to build empty buildings...

It was also a cold winter...

And those warehouses full of copper were getting lonely just sitting there by themselves...

karen said...

CV, you also need a lot of steel and crude oil for war.

CV said...

@DL

Were all your "longs" EMINI wise?

Probably a good move... Even tho I think it could go to 1183, I think if I were long I'da been getting out this morning...

I didn't go "short" today on anything US, but I did take a small punt on FXP...

CV said...

@karen (12:49)

Touche'

In the end though, I think our eventual WAR with China will play itself out on the ECONOMIC battlefield...

DL said...

CV,

Yes, it was ESM0.

DL said...

CV @ 12:51

I think that there may be a little bit of "good cop, bad cop" going on with Obama and the Democrats.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

From Briefing.com today regarding the jobs picture.


As expected, the downward movement in the initial claims figure slowed during the week ending March 27.
Initial claims declined from 445,000 to 439,000 and met the consensus expectation of around 440,000 claims.
Continuing claims fell by only 6,000 to 4.662 mln claimants for the week ending March 20.
The drop comes after the data from March 13 were revised up from 4.648 mln claims to 4.668 mln.
The consensus estimate called for claims to fall to 4.618 mln.

Key Factors

Even though the market expected the slowdown, the labor sector needs a much steeper decline in order to sustain a falling unemployment level.
As it is, the job formation data look abysmal. The lack of a significant decline in continuing claims is troubling considering that the exhaustion rate, the percentage of people whose claims expire before finding a new job, stood at a record high of 54.01% in February. It seems the continuing claims figure has reached a plateau where every person who runs out of claims is replaced by a new initial filer.
Labor market problems can also be seen in the nonseasonally adjusted data from the week ending March 13. Continuing claims declined by 48,967 during the week, yet the level of emergency extended benefits rose by 267,012. While a portion of the extended benefit increase can be attributed to a lack of filings from the week ending March 6, the data suggest that finding a new job is extremely difficult.

CV said...

@DL

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised, deep down, if Rahm Emmanuel actually WANTS (and has "advised as such"), the GOP to take over both houses of Congress come November...

Look, whatever I say, or anybody says, Obama polls best out of any "popularity" configuration...

A GOP takeover in November would amount to the following:

- Nothing changing (again)...
- An opportunity to shift BLAME for nothing changing, again, to the GOP (in the run-up to 2012)...

Besides, the MARKETS LOVE IT when there is a split between the Administration & Congress...

- Obama is now talking DRILL DRILL DRILL (which basically means, "here comes Cap&Trade")
- He already got his ONE THING passed... HC
- The GOP would arrive "just in time" for the DOUBLE part (of the "double dip") to kick in...

In the end, it was all Pelosi, Reid, & Dodd's fault (or whichever GOAT they decide needs to be SCAPED)...

CV said...

@DL

Oh... By the way... Nice day for you (well - 1st 6 minutes especially) on ESM0...

Congrats!

McFearless said...

Wow, been in meetings since this morning, I see I missed a few things inching closer to infinity. Silver, China....Natty?

CV said...

CV does all his best trading in THE SUPERMARKET...

My God people... Y'all just don't know...

If you're vigilant, sometimes (especially around holidays), supermarkets are just friggin' GIVING AWAY FOOD!

72bat said...

re karen's "you also need a lot of steel and crude oil for war"
the thought occurred to me when obama's offshore drilling decision was announced that it could well have been influenced by a new national intelligence estimate regarding security of long-term oil supplies

CV said...

@MCF

FXP, FXP! Time to nibble some more my man!

McFearless said...

C,

Yep, I had a few limit orders go in this morning as I build my position.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Actually CV, Obama doesn't bother me that much. (Hold on...)

People knew he had socialistic tendencies when they voted for him. What is of interest to me here about November is that since I think he's put his program together and we weren't in the GD or WWII. So what really interests me is those voters who thought they wanted socialism, now that we have more of it, will they decide they want to vote for him again? Were they really saying Yes to a more controlled socialized state, or were they voting against Bush?

..Guess we'll see....

McFearless said...

The silver count is f-ed. I'm out of that trade until something clears up there, it needed to turn down, it didn't, something else is going on.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

By the way, speaking of supermarkets, this is the first day that WMT is supposed to slash grocery prices to become a loss leader to get them into the rest of the store...

Kroger doing just fine today...

McFearless said...

interesting comments here on oil/steel especially given the recent goings on with Israel and Iran.

DL said...

CV @ 1:05,

If the Republicans do take control of both houses after November, they won't be able to "force" Obama to do anything, but a least they'll be able to stop him from engaging in
any new spending programs and new tax increaes.

*******************************

Regarding drill X 3 and cap/trade, the Republicans would do well to wait until after November to make any agreements with Mr. "O".

CV said...

@Bruce (1:14)

I seriously don't look at it that way...

People who voted for Obama were:

1. Sick of Bush (well - basically that's the ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE PLANET - so I'll narrow it down)
2. Liked his speeches
3. Weren't the types to "check under the hood" for used cars, so were willing to go on faith
4. Economically disadvantaged
5. Economically ADVANTAGED (two individuals whose fotos appear in this thread come to mind) to the point that they knew he was the perfect "sock puppet"
10. Were in a union
20. Worked for the media
50. Worked for/or were pension recipients of state or federal governments
75. Were unemployed
#100. Thought he'd (Obama) pay for their gas and mortgage
#200. Were the brother of the wife of the POTUS, and are a basketball coach at Oregon State University... Your 14-18 record sucks and was about to get you FIRED, until, by some miracle, a $17 million grant was awarded to your University from the Federal Government... So you kept your job... Even better! Got a juicy new contract!

CV said...

@Bruce

FWIW - CV thinks Wal-Mart is OUTSTANDING in the grocery department...

I'm not kidding...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, that is what I mean...you and I, we are just two peas in a very big field. If the US population turns out to like socialism in November, if this wasn't a "one and out" type of playoff, and the Dems like Pelosi are returned, then it may be time for me to rethink the Barbara Streisand ultimatum, at least for BinT.

Mannwich said...

@cv: I'm in the #1 camp. And, for me, he was a "Hail Mary" of sorts. Needless to say, the pass hasn't been completed up until this point. Real change won't come from a politician from within the system or any one person, or small handful of people. It's grass roots or status quo. That's been hammered home to me now.

DL said...

I'm not a fan of Obama.

But at least he can speak in complete sentences (unlike a certain other recent President).

karen said...

I think we've got too many unemployed people not to get a(nother) war going now..

I just checked some earnings of companies that interest me.. jcg, urbn, and lulu.. jcg has managed to exceed 2008 earnings handily in 2010.. i had thot they would steal from saks, neiman's, nordstroms, etc.. but not exceed! urbn similarly stole business from higher end shops.. a&f for example.. both are doing exceptionally lulu is a total surprise, however.

anyway, my point is where are all these jobless people getting the money to keep spending? my own spending is down exponentially..

if we are to believe the earnings reports, that is..

CV said...

@karen

I think we've got too many unemployed people not to get a(nother) war going now...

Astute observation from a "socio-historic" POV...

But... That war which has your radar antenna up... It may end up being CIVIL! Think about that...

CV said...

@karen

For a very strange reason... LULU doesn't surprise me at all...

Basically, if CV could "predicted" such madness a year ago (someone asked me to predict if there was a FLUSH run-up from retail, which would benefit, LULU would have been on my "short list")...

Nic said...

DL the last one wasn't much good at maths either.
http://www.funnies.com/brazilian.htm

Mannwich said...

Agreed, karen. The important point - "if we are to believe the earnings reports, that is..."

McFearless said...

I have to share the dream I had last night:

I stayed up until about 2:45 am, just wasn't tired, watching markets most of the night so I had numbers buzzing over my eyelids when I did finally fall asleep. I dreamt that P3 had begun to take hold, but that somehow, some way, all the stock tickers on my screen were still green, the market price was pointing down, I had put on shorts of individual stocks but all the stocks just kept going up!

I thought it was a nightmare and then I woke up and looked at futures and realized,....it was real life!

karen said...

coincidentally:

JP MORGAN UPGRADES URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN) TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL- S&P Marketscope
JP MORGAN UPGRADES URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN) TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRALAnalyst Brian Tunick tells salesforce he believes URBN has many of the attributes that growth investors in this space look for: differentiated portfolio of brands, double-digit sq. ft growth (both domestically and internationally) and opportunity for operating margins to expand from 17.5% to 20%+ in the next few years. Raises his $37 target price to $44, 22x his $2.00 FY 12 (Jan). EPS estimate, a premium multiple to the group given its differentiated brands and superior growth characteristics./Trombino |US;URBN|21674|US|277749

DL said...

CV @ 1:35

We should just break the country up in two:
the red states and blue states.

Maybe we can do it without a shot being fired.

Mannwich said...

Maybe with the Boomers on the cusp of retirement Joe and Jane 6P are out of equityes for good?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/domestic-equity-fund-flows-again-negative-week-march-24-35-billion-outflows-year-date

karen said...

Gorgeous baby, Nic!

Mannwich said...

@DL: It would be interesting to watch how the red states fare without the federal money from the blue states. Just sayin.

Nic said...

I'm declaring the April Fool rally over now. I think another very boring afternoon ahead.

CV said...

@McF (1:40)

Maybe you're just "color-blind"...

CV said...

@Nic

How old is your dog?

Nic said...

That one is 5 ... her name is Bridget. A very good duck dog!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny:

That might be true...and it might also play into why there is less volatility now than say, in the tech bubble..

DL said...

Mannwich @ 1:43

I really don't think that there's a net transfer of wealth from the blue states (in the aggregate) to the red states.

If you know of any data on this, I'd be interested to see it.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV said...
@Nic

How old is your dog?


...Same question my wife was asked last time we went to a movie....

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: Kind of what I was thinking. Just a slow melt up day after day after day without retail buying and shorts on the run and running for cover and covering every day.

Mannwich said...

I'll look it up, DL, but there does tend to be higher obesity, higher teen pregnancy rates, and just lower quality of life in most red states vs. the blue states. Not all of them, for sure, but most of them.

karen said...

what just happened?

karen said...

not a leak of tomorrow's numbers! i would be aghast!

CV said...

@Manny (1:43)

I had that argument a long time ago (Red vs. Blue)...

It's a BAD ARGUMENT all around... From a BASIC SURVIVAL standpoint... Red states would fare better because many of the basic resources are aplenty (moreover, the states are populated with individuals who know how to put them to use)...

For example... In a TOTAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, who is your friend?

- A Kentucky-an (where the soil is fertile, there are a lot of freshwater streams, coal & livestock are abundant, and people have dirt under their fingernails)

- Or a 'Manhattanite' or 'So-Cal' type (who are surrounded by creeping desert - and might not make it to Idaho before dying of thirst or starvation)

Just saying...

CV said...

@Nic

That one is 5 ... her name is Bridget. A very good duck dog!

BRIDGET is now, as of this moment, the OFFICIAL MASCOT & PATRON SAINT of "Survivor Capital"... :-)

CV said...

Oh wait... Did you say "duck", or "luck"?

Mannwich said...

Most of the wealthiest states tend to be "blue" (or a shade of purple), are they not?

Actually - DL, not sure how accurate this is, but this was put out in '04. Take it for what it's worth, but it seems to me the "red" states proportionately benefit more from federal money per capita than most of the "blue" states. I think splitting the country up on those lines would be a bad deal for most of the "red" states, to be honest. The top ten states that receive the least amount of federal dollars back were ALL blue.

http://able2know.org/topic/34681-1

Nic said...

Luck obviously. we declared the rally over et voila!

I-Man said...

Karen-

Try correlating those sales numbers with the rise in mortgage defaults.

Not paying your mortgage gives you a nice dose of discretionary income.

Mannwich said...

@cv: There would still be "trade" between the split entities, no? I don't buy your argument. Not in today's world.

Nic said...

She will have to do until Leftback and his magic market timing skills come back

CV said...

@karen

"What just happened?"

Answer: Nothing that I didn't explain in my (9:41) post above...

@DL
If it gets "jucier", you could contemplate a RE-ENTER on those ESM0 longs... :-)

karen said...

Ben, i had a similar nightmare, seriously.. the indices didn't correlate to stocks..

Mannwich said...

If Kentucky's so far advanced, then why are they such a backward state overall? Education is paramount in today's global economy. Gotta have special skills not dirt under the fingernails. May not be "right" but it just is....

I agree with you about the states that don't have easy access to water. We don't have that issue here in the Upper Midwest. And we have an educated populace. Some might say we're taxed too much but then why do so many big corporations want to be based here? There are many reasons but one is an educated populace and workforce and another is a strong, stable community culture. They take the tax trade-off and do well in that trade.

CV said...

@Manny (1:57)

It's DEFINITELY a topic I'd like to debate at some point... I've studied it closely and so I'm more than happy to offer my conjecture...

The concept, IMO, has never been treated fairly because it's overly "politicized"... My arguments all come strictly from a GROUND ZERO economic basis...

DL said...

Mannwich @ 1:54

I think that data is very misleading. First, Washington DC is not a state.

Second, five of those states have miniscule populations, i.e., North & South Dakota, Alaska, WV, and Montana. There are probably more people who live in midtown Manhattan than in those states put together.

So I don’t think this says anything at all about red states IN THE AGGREGATE versus blue states IN THE AGGREGATE.

Mannwich said...

I hear you, cv. I'm sure it's more complicated than I'm presenting it....

AmenRa said...

MUST...GET..YIELDS...DOWN...BEFORE....CLOSE...

Mannwich said...

That's fine, DL, but I still think it would be a terrible deal for the traditionally "red" states in the aggregate to go it alone. It would be Mexico part deux. The blue states would get the better end of the bargain, IMO.

CV said...

@Nic

Well - BRIDGET... At the moment I declared her the Mascot for SURVIVOR CAPITAL, correlated with a GAP FILL in the SPX that I'd talked about this morning...

It's a done deal... SHE'S THE MASCOT!

Her "duck" skills we'll consider a BONUS!

DL said...

CV @ 1:59

O.K., I'd probably be a buyer of ESM0 at 1164.

CV said...

@Manny

Many of the SMARTEST people I know are "uneducated"...

and vice-versa...

Mannwich said...

@cv: Let me clarify - I don't mean "book smart" but the smarts to make it in the world we live in.

McFearless said...

Karen,

Was the strangest thing, I had somehow managed to pick the only stocks that were going up, like being short only WMT or MCD in 2008.

On another note, I caught up on last night's thread, sorry to hear about your situation. Keep your head up.

CV said...

@DL (2:06)

I would be with you there (for a trade)... Actually, to be precise, I wouldn't be surprised a move like that "throw down" to 1161... but whatever...

CV is starting to think he needs to be trading E-MINIS... I don't, at the moment...

McFearless said...

"but there does tend to be higher obesity, higher teen pregnancy rates, and just lower quality of life in most red states vs. the blue states. Not all of them, for sure, but most of them."

Two comments:

1. I think this ultimately results into more of a discussion about race than red v. blue.

2. The book Freakonomics puts interesting perspective on this.

McFearless said...

DL,

too bad you hand't done more than one mini contract, you caught a lot of ticks on that one. Nice trade.

DL said...

CV @ 2:10

Apart from the tax reporting simplicity, you can also take advantage of price swings that occur outside of NYSE trading hours.

DL said...

McF @ 2:12

I'm only a part-time trader who works a full-time job.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Not to mention worse schools and education in a relative sense. I read "Freakonomics" a while back but don't remember that segment of the book. What did it say about this issue?

McFearless said...

Manny,

I'd have to go back and look, really I should read the whole book again but I think specifically there was a lot about teen pregnancy. Also, I have a client that works here for state of DE that offers me some valuable insight on such things, it seems to have much more to do with race.

karen said...

megaphone pattern on $compq this week.. seems to me.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yeah, me too. I'll have to dust that one off. For some reason, the one segment that I still do remember was the one about abortion and their theory that "Roe v Wade" is actually one of the main causes for the decrease in crime that we've seen in recent decades becuase it kept a lot of unwanted kids from being born and thus turning to crime when they got into their teens. Not saying I agree or disagree but it's an interesting theory to think about.

I-Man said...

For the Mistress of the Sticks:

"Life is what you make it, hold every day sacred."

http://everydaysacred.typepad.com/everyday_sacred/2008/04/finding-a-port.html

DL said...

karen @ 2:19

Which means....?

PREDICTION!... PREDICTION!

McFearless said...

I'd also just say generally that the political party affilliation seems meaningless anymore. Or at least to me it does. It's all about self serving...so there really is just one party...it's called the ME party.

McFearless said...

And, with all this red/blue talk I'll bust out this line:

I hope that John Titor wasn't real!

I-Man said...

Dont go there, Ben...

McFearless said...

Manny,

That was the one thing in the book that is still cyrstal clear in my memory, but such a radical idea so it's to be expected we'd remember it. I don't know if I agree either, but it still made more sense the the other reasons they discuss in the book that were cited as "explanations"

Books like that are why I'm much more on the side of socionomics than I am economics when it comes to forecasting.

Mannwich said...

Agreed, ben, but human beings tend to want to put everything into a neatly categorized "box". Tribalism lives on.

Mannwich said...

@ben: My above post was in reference to your "blue/state", "Me-state" post - btw.

CV said...

@Manny (2:09)

See... There's the difference...

Perhaps you SEE THINGS from the perspective of "the world we live in"...

CV SEES THINGS from the perspective of "the world that's about to be" (based on the imminent ending cycles of failed government)...

But in this case... I admit... That my characterization of the word IMMINENT may mean within 2 years, a decade, or a century...

But CV is always one of the first "rats" to know that the ship is sinking and to postulate alternate plans...

There's NO SUCH THING as "being early" for a RAT :-)

Mannwich said...

I hear you, cv. That wouldn't surprise me at all. Nothing would anymore. I think.

Mannwich said...

I'm usually "early" as well. It's often more of a "curse" than a blessing though. ;-)

CV said...

@DL (2:13)

I "see" those moves all the time (every day) on my trading platform...

Usually I'm just jealous...

CV said...

@karen (2:19)

good catch! (for a "sleepyhead")...:-)

Mannwich said...

Interesting turn of events this afternoon.

CV said...

@DL (2:21)

PREDICTIONS

I don't know what k-doll has to say... But CV sees the following staring us STRAIGHT IN THE FACE...


3 month BILL - $28 billion - April 5th
6 month BILL - $29 billion - April 5th
52 week BILL - $26 billion - April 6th
3y note - $40 billion - April 6th
10y note - $21 billion - April 7th
10y TIPS - $18 billion - April 5th
30y - $13 billion - April 8th


$100 billion in BILLS (in January), and the way they were taken down then was VERY SLOPPY for equities in the aftermath...

Don't ever forget that New York is Chicago's B-I-T-C-H...

CV said...

BTW -

Don't take anything SERIOUS that CV says today (because I have the "3 Stooges Marathon" [on AMC] going on in the background)...

It was either THAT, or watch CNBC or C-SPAN...

I figured it was all the same...

DL said...

Karen @ 2:44

You see that? CV called you a k-doll.

I think you have grounds for a sexual harassment suit.

CV said...

@karen

It is possible, though, that the flurry of pressure stemmed more from dwindling interest among buyers after fund money was put to work in the early going to help usher in the second quarter...

It's nice to know that the ENTIRE NEWS MEDIA READS CV's THREAD POSTS IN THE MORNING...

CV said...

@DL

karen doesn't work for me...

I work for her...

karen said...

DL, haha, i appreciate any endearment!

CV said...

Anybody that wants to make an argument about how "manufacturing" & "freight" are showing signs of recovery ought to take a look at the DD chart and explain why it seemed to peak over a week ago...

CV said...

PLASTICS!

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