Morning Audibles 3.29.10 - It's Spring, But Keep the Earmuffs Handy

This past weekend I did hardly anything market or blog related. I stayed almost completely away from economic and financial news and instead worked around the yard most of the weekend getting areas cleaned out and ready for spring planting.


Naturally, come late Sunday, early Monday, I have to post a thread for this blog so I did a quick perusal of some of the usual haunts (Bloomberg, ZH, etc.) to see if there were any 'headline' happenings that might affect the markets this week. Before I get into that, I should start with a summary of the ideas I had in my head after the close of Friday. Sort of a "what worries me, what doesn't worry me" checklist. I'll list some of those here.


WHAT DOESN'T WORRY ME
- I believe that fundamentally equities are in bubble territory and will eventually correct.
- I apply that logic to both short and long term (medium term I'm still debating). To quantify that, perhaps a 5-10% correction in the short term, and eventually possibly a 50% correction (or more) longer term
- I'm not overly concerned with my own economic status, however, I'd prefer not to lose money trying to 'short' equities while the markets ar behaving irrational.


WHAT DOES WORRY ME
- Markets have shown that they can stay irrational for a long time.
- I'm worried that now that we seem to be in the latter phases of "bubble mentality", that NEWS FLOW tends to be the "justification of choice" to keep a bid under the market. Emotionally, it's very difficult to hold a position against that.
- I'm worried that, going into this week, the DIAL of that news flow is going to be turned to HIGH VOLUME.






If that's the case, and you're a bear, it might be best to put the ear muffs on for awhile.


Here are some examples of how the MSM and stock touters are going to operate this week.


1. End of quarter - NEED to "window dress" (we still have 3 more days to endure).
2. Proximity of S&P index to 1,200. (It's sure to get there, right?).
3. Manic Mondays - Market always "melts-up" on Mondays, right. Futures are already green.
4. Friday's jobs report will show employment gains (census jobs - but who cares about details)?
5. Earnings season coming
6. Economic Confidence numbers in Europe improving
7. Greece bailed out.
8. Dollar strong (now WAIT, this 'should' be a negative right? This week they'll spin it POSITIVE and say that since Treasuries are weak, and with a falling Euro, the only asset class to buy will be US equities - YOU WATCH).
9. Then, you get stuff like this that I read over at ZH



I can tell you THAT was met with much "consternation". The article seemed to give the impression that a "melt up" was imminent. Frankly, I don't think it implies anything in particular (comparing to the similar two spikes to now and last March when the markets started on this P2 run). I'll give you some reasons:

- Both came at the end of March. Japans fiscal year end. This may have had more to do with carry trade unwinding and squaring than anything else. Same with last year. This happens EVERY March.
- Look at the EOQ months on the chart. All EOQ months show spikes (rebalancing). For that matter, the smaller spike that preceded January '10 was followed by a 'correction in equities' (and in fact, the trough afterwards was perhaps just an insurance policy to get through the quarter).
- The large cover SPY positions may have even been the Fed, who was instructed to keep a put under the market until the HC bill was passed. In fact, last week there were several attempts to take the market down, which all failed.

The bottom line is, if you have EARMUFFS on, you don't have to really see anything sinister in the markets. I could be wrong here, but that's my position.

Two things I think we do have to watch very closely are long bond prices, and the EUR/USD. Last week, Goldman did a 180. (Going from a BUY recommendation on the Eur with a STOP LOSS at 1.34, to a SELL rating on it with a STOP at 1.35). This morning, 1.35 is likely to be tested. It would be AMAZING to see GS get stopped out TWICE on a public call they made within a few days time.

If Goldman IS on the right side of the Euro trade, then it would seem to me that ANY news article you read about the situation in Europe having been mitigated, is a load of crap.

As for bond prices, I mentioned last week that the last time the 10y note put a 4 handle on (last June), led to a 9% correction in equities. Don't forget that CHICAGO OWNS NEW YORK. Whatever Bernanke does, he cannot let the long bond market get away. Recently, it's been getting tougher and tougher for the Treasury to roll over short term debt. With this Administration and Congress showing no indication that they can say "no" to any spending opportunity, the cost of funding these measures at higher yields up the curve is simply not feasible. 

It would be a lot more feasible to tank equities at this point than to let the long bond slip away. 

But these last two ideas aren't things that are understood in CRAMERICA. Cramericans will be fed a steady diet of sugar coated news. For the rest, this is your likely posture for the week ahead.






163 comments:

Prashant said...

I know that the earmuffs are on but do check out the move in Silver.

CV said...

@Prashant

Any silver move is going to be exactly opposite the dollar...

That'll come off if they can't get the Euro over 1.35...

call me ahab said...

"As red-hot economy cools, stocks face midyear challenge"- ECRI

wow- what did I miss? I am going to have to look up "red hot" to make sure I have the meaning right

CV said...

@ahab

To ECRI, one quarter of 5.6% GDP growth (due to re-stocking, and mostly government spending that hasn't been taxed out of paychecks yet) = RED HOT...

I suppose they're salivating thinking about all the census workers who are going to take down all that inventory...

QQQQ said...

"Personal income in February 2010 increased less than 0.1% from January 2010. Real and nominal personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3%. Real and nominal disposable personal income (DPI) increased less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate as a percentage of DPI was 3.1% in February."
...more unexpected (not neg) red-hot stuff!? for these elastic markets... just saying

off to work

AmenRa said...

ECRI has been heading lower the past few weeks yet I don't hear them talking about that. Only when it goes up do they hit the airwaves.

CV said...

@AmenRa

That's right... It's been ticking down since January...

CV said...

Every week...

CV said...

@Amen

Ha! With the GAP up this morning, it hit almost the exact same print as the gap up on Friday...

It's like... OK, let's try this again!

CV said...

This time though, there's 5 straight green candles...

Might make it this time...

I-Man said...

Sup party people in the place to be?

karen said...

morning! I, too, stayed outside this weekend.. didn't turn my laptop on once! of course, i will be playing catch up today.. ugh, there goes crude again.. i decided after noting all the (effing) cars on the freeway for the last 3 days that, seasonally, it was a bad time to be short crude! a miracle is what it will take for that to correct now.

CV said...

@I-Man

I have the feeling we're in for another dull week...

The BV's need to get to work a little here...

CV said...

@karen

Yeah...(crude)... I've been avoiding saying that because I knew you are still holding onto DTO...

It's tough being short that into May...

Perhaps there will be some "moments" tho...

karen said...

C and BAC make me crazy.. UFB.. yeah, yeah, the Treas to release 7.7 BILLION shares and anyone would want to own that toxic balance sheet?

CV said...

I still say there's basically only two things to watch here...

- Euro backtesting 1.35

and 10y yields...

When/(if) Euro fail backtest, and yields on the 10y put a 4 handle on, equities are going to have to correct for a bit...

Might get put on hold though on this, a short week... Meanwhile, we risk aggravatingly going up to, say, 1083 in the process...

karen said...

So, at $4/share the treasury can profit a bit.. at $3/share, a small loss.

CV said...

Europe started out green this morning, and is now RED though...

CV said...

@karen

The Treasury selling C is basically just a "repo" measure (in practice)...

Here, you hold this for awhile...

AmenRa said...

CV

I have one red candle in the first 5 min. Whew!

CV said...

@Amen

I don't have the first red candle until minute 6

CV said...

@Amen

The thing that makes me laugh though is the fact that BOTH days were GAP ups, and the first print was nearly identical...

It was like "OK, let's try this again"...

karen said...

believe me, i'm watching the ten year! i'll die if i lose that bet to Bruce. besides, the ten year holding 4 is the anchor of my theme..

CV said...

I mean... If it were to go down and print, say, 1162...

Then we'd have developed a mini "bear flag"

I-Man said...

@ K

Look at a TNX monthly chart, you'll feel better.

CV said...

@karen

"the ten year holding 4 is the anchor of my theme"

Regardless of what happens, I can't see it being good for equities...

A) If it hits 4 and rallies back, then we might see a minor correction in equities...

B) If it takes out 4 and explodes higher... It's TOAST for "all asset classes"... That's meltdown city...

CV said...

LOL...

You guys have to check out this site... It's another version (very simple one) for the MAX PAIN calculator...

Take a look at the button you have to click once you've typed your stock ticker in the box...

http://quasivivo.com/2008/pain-calculator/

CV said...

You can get YAHOO & CNN in "pig latin" there too... :-)

Mannwich said...

Saw the gruesome news in Moscow just now. Wow, that's really awful. As someone who was there on 9/11 and lived through that awful time, how long before something like that happens here?

Anonymous said...

Yes C, your govt. is getting out of C. I am debating if I should also.

CV said...

@Anon

I'm surprised ANYONE is in C to begin with...

Other than it saves a trip to the store to buy a scratch off lottery ticket...

karen said...

This is great.. if the dollar strengthened with GS attempting to take it down..

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/03/29/goldman-citi-stung-by-bets-against-resurgent-greenback/

karen said...

CV, LOL, best C quip ever!

call me ahab said...

manny-

the world is unsafe place for sure-

especially when you have folks willing to strap bombs to themselves to kill innocent bystanders walking around on a sunny day-

but where else you going to go?

Mannwich said...

@cv: Who needs the lottery or even casinos when you can do it all now without leaving the comforts of your home?

Anyone else see the NYTimes business section's front page article about day-traders and go hhmmmmm??

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Gotta just live your life and hope your number doesn't come up, I guess. Hope you're in the right place at the wrong time and not vice versa.

CV said...

@ahab

I heard the latest was to but bombs into breast implants...

Should make it very nervous to walk around Malibu & South Beach...

karen said...

anyone feeling the weakness of this tape the way I am? I can hardly trust myself at this point..

CV said...

@Manny

The word "daytraders" is misunderstood...

Someone writing a NYT article probably wouldn't know a daytrader, from a swing trader, from Robert Prechter himself...

Mannwich said...

This post at CR tells me the Feds are possibly winning the "battle" to get people to spend what they don't have again, however slowly. Why save when you can't earn anything on those dollars anyway? Might as well spend all your savings AND then some. Someone will bail you out if you get into trouble with debt anyway, right? Mission almost "accomplished" Banana Ben.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/february-personal-income-flat-spending.html

Mannwich said...

Agreed, cv, but the fact the article was written at all and appeared on the front page of the business section may indeed be an indicator of some sort?

Mannwich said...

@karen: I'm WELL past that point. Uber-malaise has set in for me, actually rigormortis.

CV said...

@karen

I've been feeling "weakness" in the tape for 3 weeks now...

For some reason, I think it keeps getting held up by something (or a series of things)... I'll nominate my "flavors of the day"...

- First you had the 13:1 day to get past 1125
- Then you had the charge to 1150
- Then you had the "hold the 1150"
- Then you had OPEX week
- Then you had "hold it up here until HC" is passed
- Now you have, "get it to the EOQ"

Strangely, it doesn't help that the dollar has rallied (because with the dollar consolidating the rally half the time - there's no reason for the market to go down)...

Equities have clearly not discounted the dollar move yet... I think they'll HAVE TO come earnings season...

The markets are probably waiting for that last SHORT WEEK, END THE QUARTER, REPORT A POSITIVE JOBS #, TELL OBAMA HOW GREAT HE IS, GET EASTER OVERWITH, GET TIGER BACK PLAYING GOLF moment...

I guess :-/

Mannwich said...

TLT back to getting taken out to the wood shed. Will we see a break of 88? I think we will this time. What say the rest of you?

CV said...

@Jeff

"may indeed be an indicator of some sort?"

No offense, but, not to me...

Mannwich said...

@cv: None taken. I have no idea if it means anything at all. Just thought it was interesting to see. Just throwing it out there. If we see more of these kinds of articles in the MSM though.....

CV said...

@Jeff

- 4 handle on 10yy
- 5 handle on 30yy

puts us back to June '09... People get scared bonds are blowing out and we get a correction (like last summer)...

It's the NEXT time they hit those yields you have to worry...

call me ahab said...

CV-

yeah I saw that article- I guess any prosthetic is suspect-

manny-

true- events like what happened in Moscow- makes you see all the machinations in the stock market as just a big game-

a giant roulette wheel to take $$$ out of people's pockets-

w/ no correlation to the real world-

world wide tulip mania

CV said...

@Jeff

ZH had a similar article over the weekend...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-trading-wizards-or-just-newtons-first-law

It didn't draw much attention there either... Probably the NYT guy plagiarized the ZH article...

CV said...

I was wondering why futures in Europe were green, then they were red...

Here's why:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-cds-jump-books-new-7-year-€5bn-issue-covered-just-14-times-greeks-blame-weak-demand-ea

Weak bond auction (Greece blamed it on EASTER - lol)...

I-Man said...

Damn Easter Bunny-

Love the parallels here...

Greek bonds, kind of like a colorful plastic egg with nothing inside.

karen said...

TBP has a treasure trove of posts and article reviews up from Andy Xie to Greg Mackinaw.. not that logical thinking is a safe investment strategy.

CV said...

peeps

Mannwich said...

Logical thinking in this environment will make you go broke.

CV said...

@karen

I'm tired of being smart and losing money...

I want to be stupid and make some bank!

CV said...

@karen

I'm aligned with Rosie's thinking:

For the first time in this year-long bear market rally, the S&P 500 has not endured a daily decline of at least 1% over a one-month time frame. January was no more than a hiccup and has seemed to have emboldened the view that any decline is a blip and a buying opportunity.

The mantra is that after breaking technical threshold over technical threshold in what can only be described as a classic 1930-style bounce off a depressed low, we will now see a 61.8% retracement of the October 2007-to-March 2009 plunge, which would put 1,230 as the next key resistance point for the S&P 500. Interestingly enough, that would take the market back to where it was when Lehman collapsed. Of course, back then:

• The dividend yield was 2.4%, not 2.0%;
• The unemployment rate was 6.2%, not 9.7%;
• Industry operating rates were 73%, not 69%;
• Housing starts were 822k annual rate, not 575k;
• New home sales were running at a 436k annual rate, not 308k;
• The Case-Shiller home price index was 162, not 146;
• The level of retails sales was $366 billion, not $356 billion;
• Auto sales were running at a 12.5 million annual rate, not 10.3 million;
• The level of employment was 136.3 million, not 129.5 million;
• Real personal income excluding government transfers was $9.5 trillion, not $9 trillion
• The level of manufacturing shipments was $429 million, not $384 million
• Consumer confidence levels were at 61, not 46
• Credit card delinquency rates were 4.6%, not 5.8%
• Bank-wide residential loan default rates were 5.3%, not 10.1%
• Commercial bank credit was $7.3 trillion, not $6.6 trillion
• The fiscal deficit was $500bln, not $1.5 trillion.

It makes absolutely perfect sense for the market to head back to those 2008 levels if and only if the broad array of macro indicators can manage to head back to the levels prevailing at that time as well. The jury, shall we say, is still out on that one; with deference to the impressive surge the market has managed to turn in and the wall of worries it has either been able to climb or merely dismiss out of hand.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

karen said...
believe me, i'm watching the ten year! i'll die if i lose that bet to Bruce. besides, the ten year holding 4 is the anchor of my theme..

...You wound me Karen. You make me sound like the reincarnation of Stalin! Women who lose bets to me...they don't ever complain.....!

(Now Leftback...no woman wants to ever lose a bet to him...the things I have heard!)

I-Man said...

Marty on Markets:

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/From-the-Hole-5-3-23-10.pdf

karen said...

Don't Mess with Texas.. another must read from NLY.

72bat said...

sh*t happens, y'know...
Whistleblower to CFTC in JPM Silver Manipulation Struck by Hit and Run Car In London

karen said...

finally an analyst I can feel a little warmth toward: "Toll has a strong luxury franchise with a strong balance sheet. Unfortunately, as fortresses tend to do, it constrains inhabitants as much as it keeps outside forces away," said Stephen East at Ticonderoga Securities in a research note.

"We believe Toll also has a structural problem driven by excess land, debt expense and a high-touch, fixed-cost business. Combine that with an intractable luxury focus and we believe Toll becomes much more market dependent than the typical builder," the analyst wrote. "Consequently, given our more muted view of the housing market this year, we see little to get excited about with this equity expecting it to underperform the builder group in 2010 just as it did in 2009."

CV said...

@I-Man

It seems to me that Martin Armstrong is starting to go off the deep end a little...

It's like he wants to try to fit pieces of everything he's ever said before together and discard everything that was wrong...

- We would see lows, but now we won't because the indices are going technically higher)...

- There is INFLATION not DEFLATION, but if the bond market collapses there will be DEFLATION.

- We are a debtor nation and spend too much (which should cause the VERY BOND COLLAPSE that he's talking about), yet he thinks we'll INFLATE and therefore indices will go higher...

So what is it?

It seems to me he just looks at trendlines on a DOW chart and predicts the same levels that any amateur would predict... Unless the bond market collapses (which means then all bets are off)...

Mannwich said...

@cv: Nobody knows ANYTHING anymore. It's really that simple. We're in unchartered waters now.

CV said...

Not out of the question that we could see a move down to 1160 right here...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny,

I know that 10 year is back up to just about 3.9. Lefty much be making money by the wheelbarrow loads...

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: As an irritated renter of TLT, I know that too, sadly and unfortunately, but I'm with karen and lefty on this one - it shouldn't get much higher than this.....

It's game over if we go above four, IMO. Benny walking the tightrope in his reflation efforts in so many ways.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

What is that old saying again? Beward of Greeks Bearing Gilts?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

More and more people are spelling beware beward...I started the trend...

Mannwich said...

Anyone else eyeing a little FXP here?

karen said...

The latest on those home auctions in Orange County that I've been following.. the ones that keep trying to spin positively a 50% price reduction (from $15 to 7.5 million).. and i'm thinking the homes are still over priced..

http://southcoasthomes.freedomblogging.com/

the second article deals with a home right near me.. it's been relisted one million lower..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny:

Why do the TBT/TLT thing at all? Kinda like the SRS thingy, isn't it?

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: Not really. TLT a much much "safer" play than SRS. I'm basically just accumulating TLT at these levels for medium term hiding place because I really don't want to "play" much in this market right now. Unlike others, I'm not going the other way and trading TBT as well. Tired of losing that game.

karen said...

Trump Soho is Beautiful but Empty

Mannwich said...

@karen: But if there thousands of empty pretty buildings everywhere and we don't acknowledge it, does it really exist? It seems not.

Mannwich said...

I should say, "the banks don't acknowledge it"......."we've" already come to grips with it much to our dismay and confusion.

karen said...

Doug Noland has reservations about The Restoration of King Dollar. As always you have to scroll down to find his analysis..

I skimmed it once and will re read it as it runs contrary to my thinking but he really is good. For instance, "And I would argue that the reinstatement of King Dollar is not, as some had expected, impinging global reflation. Indeed, rather than restraining reflationary forces, dollar strength may today be reinforcing them. I would argue that the dollar's newfound muscle has not yet impinged Credit systems overseas, especially overheated Credit in the "periphery." Meanwhile, it has helped underpin "core" U.S. debt markets generally, which has played a prominent role in the ongoing reflation of the world's largest economy and stock market."

karen said...

JIm the Realtor is so good for a laugh! "This would make a good time out room... " LOL..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngDf9f7u7WM&feature=player_embedded#

Nic said...

Hehe thanks Karen :)

Mannwich said...

This is good. Courtesy of Rosie/ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-pig-farmers-doing-all-trading-top-five-prop-desks-are-buying-and-selling-securities-leve

karen said...

just filled out my census form.. i found it brief but unnerving..

CV said...

@karen

I read through the Noland link...

Don't get me wrong when I say this (because I'm not challenging Noland here)...

But basically, to me, Noland was just saying "None of this makes any sense" (dollar going up and equities remaining strong)... "So...here's a possible explanation"...

The problem is this, THAT (along with everything else at the moment is an explanation for an entire scenario that's patently absurd from head to toe...

It's like trying to figure out a REASON someone is crazy, or that someone decides to be a mass murderer or something like that...

As if there's a clinical reason for things... THERE IS NONE...

What's happening right now is that we are trapped in market behavior that can't accept reality and is struggling to fight it with the only way they know how...

Loose money, and irresponsible policy making...

At the point that it hits that moment of self realization, things will change and resolve quickly back towards what should be the proper state (probably with a quick and terrible look at the excesses on the OTHER side of that first)...

So if Noland wants to construct any REASON that the dollar is strong here and equities haven't corrected yet, then if it feels good to him, let him do it...

That's why I've never been interested in the field of psychiatry... Let them go around figuring out why someone takes an axe and chops another to pieces...

You want a "motive"?... Yeah! You're effing CRAZY!

karen said...

Round Two: 1:29 PM ET 3/29/10 | By Sarah N. Lynch

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Obama administration officials on Monday will detail plans to expand funding for a program to prevent foreclosures in states hit hardest by the housing crisis.

The program, known as the Housing Finance Agencies Innovation Fund for the Hardest Hit Housing Markets, will target five states with up to $600 million in funding, the Treasury said Monday ahead of a press conference on the subject.

This $600 million allocation will mark the second round of funds to be used in the HFA Hardest Hit Fund program. President Barack Obama first announced the HFA Hardest Hit Fund on Feb. 19, which provided a number of states with $1.5 billion.

The five states that will benefit from this second round of funding are: North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina. Ohio will receive the most money with $172 million and North Carolina will get the second highest amount, $159 million. South Carolina, meanwhile, will get $138 million, Oregon will received $88 million and Rhode Island will see $43 million.

Mannwich said...

The boredom is relentless.

CV said...

@karen

&FWIW... Remember about 5 days ago that I said that GS looked like it was starting a little "cupholder" there?

5 days later, it's looking more "cupholder-ish" each passing day...

Amen? Wouldn't we now be in a downtrend on that?

CV said...

3lb wise...

I-Man said...

I get the feeling that below the surface there is something just not right in algo land today...

Mannwich said...

@karen: Like many of us have said many times, this shit is never going to end until some event beyond their control ends it for them (and maybe us).

karen said...

CV.. FYI, GS put in a dbl top at 178 and change. end of story.

CV said...

"Housing Finance Agencies Innovation Fund for the Hardest Hit Housing Markets"

Alotta alliteration for anxious Administration a**holes using action adjectives"... Absolutely Alarming!

CV said...

another acronym!

CV said...

The should have announced it when AA reports...

DL said...

Karen @ 1:34

$600M...?

Doesn't even qualify as a fraction of a pittance.

CV said...

Does that mean we're going to have a new CZAR?

DL said...

Mannwich @ 1:35

Either increase your position size, or take the dog for a walk.

72bat said...

oh good. how soon do i receive my part of ohio's $172 million for my hard hit property value? after all, i've re-fi'ed my house a couple of times over the years, so that qualifies me, right?

Leftback said...

LB sends greetings to his many friends and admirers. We agree with CV that this is an ear muffs week, and we agree with Macro Man that this would be a good week to just stand aside, or play small ball.

Consequently our trading book shows zero going on today. If we do take a punt on something it will likely be something like gold/silver or miners from the short side, or we may do some shorting of the long bond, although we think the major move is behind us and that mr market has priced in a +250K NFP number.

DL said...

Sold my SPY calls today (that I bought on Friday). Still holding one ESM0 contract.

Mannwich said...

@DL: Actually, I have a call to do in a few minutes, so that will likely tie me up for an hour or so.

CV said...

@LB

What would you say to a +330k number...

Alter anything? Or really just a knee jerk blip (because we all know where the numbers are coming from anyway)?...

McFearless said...

Hey all, not much going on today. My stomach hurts from all the laughing at headlines today, the best being Easter being blamed on greece's poor auction results. That was hilarious.

Did some FXP/ZSL today, small.

karen said...

DL, you are pithy today!

Leftback said...

Since it is a boring day, we will interrupt the market to thank Bruce for his comments on the bond markets and to reinforce B in T's prejudices about all British men being closeted gay ex-public schoolboys.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/03/christopher_hitchens_had_sex_w.html?imw=Y&f=most-viewed-24h10

Actually LB's school experiences were quite different, with football and fighting being the major preoccupations. But then LB occupied a totally different social niche, Liverpool not being much like Eton....

karen said...

I am now preoccupied with wondering whom and how many are LB's admirers!

DL said...

karen @ 2:08

Txs

DL said...

Karen @ 2:10

I may have read one or two of his posts; I can't remember, really.

karen said...

Don't Mess with China, Either!

Leftback said...

Well, there is Bruce.... um...
off-hand can't think of any others, but they may exist...

Leftback said...

April 5 might be a candidate for the first Non-Magic Monday. But LB bets we will see that on April 12.

McFearless said...

I'm predicting a flat day Friday. Will likely be my best/most accurate call of the year.

As for what the jobs number will be.....who cares.

CV said...

I'm trying to put a new chart up, but blogger seems to be having fits...

Grr...

DL said...

For a boring, listless market, the VIX is still well above its recent lows.

Leftback said...

If Mike Myers did a take-off on Wall Street, he'd be this guy:

James Altucher - Invest Tool

karen said...

"Analysts: Markets can absorb government's Citi shares"

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The market can absorb 7.7 billion Citigroup Inc. shares that the U.S. government is planning to sell this year, partly because the stock is so heavily traded, according to analysts.

This better be famous last words, is all i have to say.. let's here from Meredith, however.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-can-absorb-govs-citi-stock-analysts-say-2010-03-29?siteid=rss&rss=1

And, let's see what the commenters have to say..

CV said...

I can't get this SPX chart up because BLOGGER is acting funny, but what I was trying to illustrate is a FAILED H&S (going back 4 days)...

and, a sideways (potential H&S) on a 10 day chart (off high 9 days ago)... It would SUPPORT at around 1150 on an 8 day fib...

Look it up yourself... Probably won't happen, but it's a potential pattern...

CV said...

@karen (2:31)

Yeah I want to see that...

Let's see what happens without Lloyd and Jamie trading the shares back and forth by way of 33 Liberty day in and day out...

The volume on the NYSE will dry up to nothing and this whole VOLUME charade will be exposed FOR REAL (as if it isn't already)...

karen said...

good comments on that citi article!

"The market seems to be shock-proof, bullet-proof, ...

The big question remains...is it also fool proof..."

Saint Jamie said...

Any suggestion that we manipulate the market at the behest of the New York FED and Treasury Department because we were rectally implanted with electric cattle prods during the TARP episode is.....

True.

CV said...

I'm irritated I can't get this chart posted...

Amen or I-Man... Have you tried uploading something to your BLOGGER threads in the past hour?

I wonder if it's my computer, or if it's blogger...

Effing Apple is trying to get me to install updates (which messes things up from time to time)...

anonymous proctologist said...

Cool.

CV said...

@Saint Jamie

Really? Yeah I didn't think you were just practicing your Monty Python "silly walk"...

Leftback said...

This one is for Karen and Nic... all eyes on the AUDUSD...

Love Triangle?

CV said...

Or, Saint Jamie...

Is this actually you?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wippooDL6WE

AmenRa said...

CV

I haven't loaded anything to blogger today. As for Apple only update software that you're using. You can go into preferences and change how often it checks for software updates.

Leftback said...

12 bps on the 3-month bill.

Keep an eye on that, if we see 9 bps that means big connected money knows that something is up.

CV said...

I love this...

Reform in Congress Lacking Cash Clause to Stop Lehman-Like Runs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aN8ApDdiCwcA&pos=12

Excerpt:
"After two of its hedge funds blew up in June 2007, Bear Stearns started to lose long-term funding and had to replace the loans coming due with shorter-term debt, according to two former executives who had knowledge of the firm’s finances. Regulators were informed of the company’s liquidity position in weekly meetings as conditions worsened, those executives said."

---

GEE... Sounds like they run the US Treasury like they ran Lehman & Bear Stearns!

McFearless said...

I hung out with some people my age this past weekend, based on my anecdotal conversations I'm not surprised to see spending keep ticking up. They all had two things in common:

1. They all had trips/concerts/cars/other planned for summer

2. They all had no job or a shit job

Two were looking at getting into real estate before prices got too high in West Chester.

AmenRa said...

Sounds like they're interviewing Brian the Broker on Bloomberg. LMAO.

CV said...

They've got that tool Altucher (over at YAHOO), saying skies are clear for 1,300...

Bears Are Dead Wrong: S&P Will Reach 1,300 by Year's End, Altucher Says
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bears-are-dead-wrong-s&p-will-reach-1300-by-years-end-altucher-says-453860.html

Mannwich said...

@cv: He might end up being right. 1,300 could be too LOW though the way things are going.

CV said...

His logic?

Stocks are up 70% of the time...

If you took that on a YOY basis, 2000 - 2010 he's CORRECT... You were up 7 times and down 3...

Problem is... You lost more than 25% (and WAY more if you sold at the low)...

karen said...

i just went back over a year on bac.. never once put in 3 black candles in a row..

Mannwich said...

There is no such thing as "logic" anymore.

karen said...

xlf doing the same.. will check its history..

Mannwich said...

According to ZH, one quarter of today's volume is in the trading of C shares.

Mannwich said...

Therefore, this is not a "market" for the weak.

CV said...

Getting very close to October '07 numbers on TLT...

CV said...

@Manny (3:42)

It's like that every day... And if it's not Citi, it's AIG, FNM, or FRE

karen said...

xlf put in 3 blacks (dojis) first week of march.. and what propelled it so much higher when it should have turned then and there is for only the big money to know.

karen said...

fre and fnm shouldn't even be trading!! they should be delisted yesteryear along with aig. not to mention c, bac, wfc, gs, jpm,ms, etc.

CV said...

@karen

FASB (our wonderful elected officials in Washington & the people they appointed)...

Benron!

Leftback said...

Crime is making a comeback in Gotham. Chip and Muffy are going to leave town if this keeps up, and walk-away from their co-op....

Subway Killings

karen said...

well, the only positive spin that i can put on today is that at least the C chart looks like C fro CR*P!

DL said...

A homicide in a subway station in Manhattan.

How shocking.

Leftback said...

Another thriller today... and still LB sits... without positions....

Leftback said...

"Two were looking at getting into real estate before prices got too high in West Chester."

PRICED OUT FOR EVER....

CV said...

@CV is off to the gym...

with a few short positions...

waiting...waiting...

Se y'all after the WRAP! (or tomorrow - if you're tired as I am of looking at this)...

Anonymous said...

Speaking of chip and Muffy, did anyone see Gigi Stone (bloomberg) wearing a fur coat in a car garage in NJ during the Toyota thing? It was priceless.

bob

Mannwich said...

@DL: Actually, contrary to perception outside of gotham, subway crime in Manhattan has been extremely low in recent years.

DL said...

Mannwich @ 4:04

Still, only two dead?

................


I lived in NY for more than 20 years.

Used to ride the subway a fair amount (between Brooklyn and Manhattan).

Mannwich said...

@DL: When did you live there? I did the same commute (Brooklyn to Manhattan for four years from '99 - '03) and it seemed pretty safe to me, except for the usual harmless nutcase or homeless person every now and then. Of course, there were pockets of neighborhoods in the outer boroughs that were not so safe. I'll give you that but in the late '90's to today, the subway system has been a lot safer than it used to be.

DL said...

Mannwich,

My subway-riding days were in the 70's.

I even drove a cab in Manhattan for two weeks (between semesters).

Mannwich said...

Wow, DL. Even drove a cab during those days? I'm impressed. NYC was a MUCH different place back in those days, as you know. MUCH less safe than today but far more affordable, for sure. Without Wall Street's bailouts, we probably were going to go back to those dark days in NYC, or maybe worse. NYC has fared better than maybe any other city during this crisis due directly to the bailouts........

Mannwich said...

I was in Park Slope and Carroll Gardens, then Hell's Kitchen, and Chelsea.......

Leftback said...

"My subway-riding days were in the 70's."

THOSE were the days. It's been thoroughly Disney-fied since the early 90s. But you can almost feel the grime and crime creeping back in. Reclaiming its own... reverting to nature....

Mannwich said...

@lb: Some of that grime is a good thing for the character of the city, IMO. The place has gotten way too high end over the past decade due to all that Wall Street funny money floating around. The character of the city has suffered as a result. Going back to the way things were in the '90s would probably ideal. Probably won't happen though, especially with Wall Street having another hey day with free Ben and Timmy Bucks flying around.

karen said...

LB, you are such a cheerful chap.. signing off now.. looking forward to "Turnaround Tuesday."

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 3.29.10

Yet another quiet day in the credit markets after the HORROR of last week's slaughter. A mild risk-on/steepening trade today. T-bills are off their high yields of 14bps, down to 12 bps. There was mild selling of the long end today. It is worth noting that JNK has not made higher highs, unlike equities.

Corpies: LQD -0.09%; AGG -0.12%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.12%;
Govies: TLT -0.38%; IEI 0%; TIP -0.13%

We did nothing. One feels that the big seismic move is over. If one is wrong, one's arse will be toasted. Hedging decisions will be made tomorrow, but we would certainly fade a rally in the long end.

Leftback said...

LB always enjoys the concept of watching Karen Turn Around...

Nic said...

Thanks for the link on AUD, LB. Amazing that guy is a 20yr old math student. He doesn't mention rates though and very hawkish RBA statements overnight gave AUD some rocketfuel today.
Looking forward to turnaround Tuesday here.

Leftback said...

Those are some of the best FX summaries I have read recently, Nic. Apart from yours, obviously....

Nic said...

Haha yeah he is very impressive!

Leftback said...

OK, LB is off. Playing footy tonight, and LB's shooting boots have been missing for weeks while attending to defensive duty. It's time to get back to goal-scoring ways...

karen said...

yeah, aud was an eye full today.. i've got Naufal's blog and twitter bookmarked and check it fairly often so i'd already noted the "love triangle." i love his enthusiasm, too. meanwhile, i fear that our darling LB tends to sleep in.. good thing he is not on the left coast!

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