AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Doji day. Boring. Midpoint stayed above 10 SMA. Held fibo ext 85.4%. No daily 3LB changes. Only 1 more day of QE!!!




DXY
Bullish short day. Tested Gann 2x1 level and passed. Uptrend is back (Go Bucky!). No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bearish short day. Tested the fibo ext 50% and failed. Did not hold the 21 SMA. Midpoint still above 10 SMA (barely). No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bearish short day. Confirmed doji to the downside. Back below the 89, 55, 21 and 10 SMA's. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint is still below the 10 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is back in sight. No daily 3LB changes.




BAC
Bearish long day. Three previous days all show heavy selling pressure. Couldn't hold the fibo ext 85.4%. No daily 3LB changes.

63 comments:

Nic said...

Thanks Ra
Is tomorrow the last day of QE really! We should have a party, or a cake at least.

Mannwich said...

Is this bullish for CRE and the overall market? Does it matter if we all just play along and pretend these problems don't exist? Seems that way lately.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/downtown-new-york-office-vacancy-rate-spikes-911-levels

karen said...

thanks, AR! listened to a wild NPR interview with FDIC fellow on Planet Money driving in the car..

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/03/podcast_5.html

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/

I didn't even know about this until today.. the blog, i mean.. anyway, the FDIC is hiring!! I looked over at my son and said, maybe you should try to get a job with the FDIC..

Andy T said...

For some reason, it feels like the powers that be are just trying to keep this market hanging up here until the new quarterly flows come in because there's no need to give Johnny mutual fund a discount of any kind.

I'm a seller of the S&P for the next few days. I don't like the pattern the last several days. It looks very "grinding" to me, like we're about to get one of those "whooshes."

Andy T said...

Though, it should be pointed, in reference to the above, you could have said the thing for the last several weeks. Ha.

call me ahab said...

Mark Fisher- from today's Bloomberg-

"Historians cite the late second century as the turning point of the Roman Empire, when the once- proud, feared society began its descent into infamy.

The U.S. today is a mirror image of the Roman Empire as it tipped into chaos. Whether we blame our bloated government, a greedy elite or a lethargic population, the similarities between the two foreshadow a gruesome future."

last I checked- it took a few centuries before the final swoon- but maybe he's onto something

call me ahab said...

and think about this-

let's say you were grew up in the British Empire- and were born in 1900-

you grew up knowing the sun never set on the empire- so vast it was-

but by the time you were a 70 year old man-

well . . .you get the picture

Mannwich said...

Are people tiring of Cramer's schtick? It would seem so. Or people just don't trust the market and don't care to pay attention anymore? A general malaise (Jimmy Carter, you there?) or ennui setting in among the sheeple? Or are they out of free cash to throw at the casino markets?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-viewers-getting-tired-jim-cramer-and-cnbc

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab

I'm in London right now and had the same thoughts today.

call me ahab said...

manny-

dude- it's just bad television-

that someone could get advice from a buffoon like Cramer- with all his props- and take it seriously-

I view it a sign of our times- much akin to a court jester from times past- playing to amuse their masters- corporations versus royalty

but who knows- it may be as good as most the financial advice out there

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Oh, it's awful televsion, but isn't it most of the stuff that's on TV just beyond awful at this point?

call me ahab said...

mcHappy-

enjoy London my man- not sure where LB is from on the British Isle-

but maybe he can give you some pointers- only been to Heathrow myself-

must be like 2:00 or 3:00 in the morning over there?

Mannwich said...

Although, I am looking forward to
"The Wire" co-creator David Simon's "Treme" on HBO, which takes place in New Orleans. Starts on April 12th, I believe.

http://www.hbo.com/treme/index.html

call me ahab said...

manny-

here's some shows I watch that are pretty good-

Entourage, Californication, True Blood, Spartacus, South Park-

pretty goos shows there

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Yep, I watch some of those shows too but think about out of everything that's on how much of it is really good? Not much of it. Only maybe 10% is even worth watching.

Ben22 said...

ahab,

I asked earlier today if anyone watched Spartacus, that's a pretty cool show I just watched most of the episodes over the weekend after I was told about it, the only other show of those I don't watch is Californication, never seen an episode.

Tonight though....LOST.

Ben22 said...

I'm hoping some good music comes out this weekend, feels like a really good album hasn't come out in a while.

Ben22 said...

not weekend, summer, this summer.

Mannwich said...

I hate to admit it, but I like "The Biggest Loser" too. I actually like working out while watching it. Watching those morbidly fat people grind it out and lose the pounds is inspiring. I didn't think I would like it, but you have to admire anyone who comes back from the abyss like that, or at least tries as hard as they can to do it.

call me ahab said...

b22-

yeah- Spartacus- much intrigue-

and the main character's were real people in Rome- so you know that Spartacus will lead a slave revolt eventually-

because that is historical fact-

and the chick who plays Ilythia-

smoking!!!!

Nic said...

Ouch! Risk off in Australia tonight -
Retail sales: -1.4% vs 0.2% expected and building approvals -3.3% MOM vs +2.0% expected.

Nic said...

RBA won't pay attention to retail sales but -3.3% building approvals might put a stall on the rate hike.

Mannwich said...

Ouch Nic. I wonder if that will spark a sell off here tomorrow?

Nic said...

I wish! It was certainly unexpected

call me ahab said...

manny-

biggest loser-

that's where the folks try to lose the most weight?

very Warholian in that they are getting their 15 minutes of fame due to their own obesity

Ben22 said...

yeah I'm really looking forward to seeing how they build up to the rest of Spartacus. When does true blood come back on? That show is just as crazy.

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Yes, that's the show. It's a bit bizarre but anyone who chooses to do what it takes to lose THAT kind of weight gets my respect, no matter what reason they're doing it. That's HARD work right there.

Anonymous said...

IMF downgrades German growth forcast from 1.2% this year from 1.5%, and Greek economy to worsen in 2010(no wonder Greece is having trouble selling their debt).

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8595298.stm/

Where is the beef? At Wendy's. It's hot. Not recommending.

call me ahab said...

b22-

True Blood- great show!!!

that chick who played the crazy monster women that was ravaging the town-

that was an incredible story line there

Nic said...

ADP numbers are tomorrows market mover. A really good jobs number has been hyped ...

call me ahab said...

Nic-

all business?

my read is as follows- if it comes out WTE-

great news- ZIRP confirmed- market rally

comes out BTE-

great news- economy improving- market rally-

it's a win/win- lol

CV said...

Hi y'all

I'm usually not a big TV watcher (except for games, "good movies", and Discovery & History Channel, &, of course, Food shows...

Jeez, sounds like I watch TV all the time!...

But you have me interested in this 'Spartacus' thing...

CV is fascinated by the Romans (having lived in the middle of that land for 12 years...

CV said...

@ahab

It's more the BOND market (& FX) that will react to the ADP number...

It will eventually spill over into equities, but perhaps not until next Tuesday...

Equities are on SPARC cruise control until EOQ...

Anonymous said...

C, your fav, V is back. I think it's tonight?

You said you like cooking shows - do you like PBS's createtv.com

CV said...

@anon

With ALL these shows, mostly I just set the DVR...so...

V = I'm pretty sure it's scheduled to be DVR'ed

Cooking = There are so many different shows... I don't know about "createtv.com", but I'll check it out...

PBS has a lot of good cooking shows on from time to time...

I can't really say I'm a fan of one show, but I'll flip through the TV guide in advance, and if it's a recipe I'm interested in... I'll record it...

I have a whole bunch archived...

2small2bail said...

LDTE (less damage than expected)

That’s the premise in Mortgage Increases Blunted on yesterday’s front page.

“The peaks of the reset wave are melting very quickly…”, uh-huh, sounds like Banana Ben, “The subprime mess is grave but largely contained”

More of the same … “stop paying their interest-only mortgage last August” … “she has heard nothing from her lender, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co”

Seems like a counter-attack to the credit Suisse mortgage reset graph that TBP shows periodically, Hussman had here and even CV featured here, “ruh roh”.

Reminds me of Dorothy clicking her red heels in the Wizard of Oz saying, “There’s no place like 10-year rates below a 4 handle”

CV said...

I especially like the food shows where they pull stuff out of their own gardens (or feature the restaurant chefs that go shopping that way before preparing the meal...

From about April-November, CV hardly has to go to the grocery store AT ALL...

I just go with the garden seasons...

April is coming up... Which means A LOT of Arugula, Spinach, & Lettuce

call me ahab said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy T said...

I think one of the best contrarian indicators I'm seeing is the lack of comments from bears at "bear sites" like Daneric. Even Dan's 'tone' towards the market seems more circumspect the last several days.

Wall St. just needs to fill out the new Q2 bids that roll in next week and that should be good for at least a short term top.

CV said...

CV has also "added" a new feature this year...

This will gross some of you out...but...

A WORM FARM! That's right! CV built the structure and now I have a STAFF of worms breaking down compost, and aerating new planting beds 24/7...

The PAY is equivalent to what AMEN RA gets paid to do his DAILY CANDLE WRAP :-)

CV said...

@Andy T (9:38)

x2

I'm sure YOU'RE 'feeling' it too... Especially how in tune you are with EW...

It's like that 'never ending' wiggly end (that doesn't make any sense until it's IN THE BOOKS - and even then it looks ugly and probably requires a Chapter all by itself)...

I just try and do something to OFFSET the boredom here by publishing threads on 'Forrest Gump's Run' when markets get monotonous as this...

call me ahab said...

wow- last post truncated- very likely user error-

anyway-

the way I see it CV-

the more "phantom" wealth created- the more profound our fall-

the markets- as they are now- are not reflective of "where we are" and "where we will be"-

but are systems put in place to drive prices higher- maybe to protect 401k's as the only objective- maybe a policy objective- who knows-

so much for the efficient market hypothesis

call me ahab said...

2small-

thanks for the list the other day on comedic posts-

glad to see I made # 5 (or #4?)

I always try to entertain

CV said...

@2small2bail

Oh great, LDTE...

So now Obamanation can 'comfort' itself with the fact that the tsunami of ARM fallout (which hits its peak from 4/10 - 4/12 will no longer be a problem because most of the people have defaulted on those loans long ago...

With that in mind, fellow readers, let me tell you of the NEW TRADING STRATEGY that CV has implemented AS OF TONIGHT...

OK, here's the deal... Since C, BAC, AIG, FNM, & FRM are all "wards of the state", you essentially need to PUT THEM TOGETHER into a basket of longs...

Trading in these is about 25% of the daily volume of the S&P anyway (so they're basically like BUYING the SPY)...

So you "short" the SPY at the beginning of each quarter... As the quarter wears on, and earnings get reported, you take off HALF of your SPY short and either buy CALLS for that basket of stocks, or just buy the shares outright as a hedge... Take the hedge off after the quarters are made for Brian the Broker (and go to his BarBQ...

Easy as pie!

Anonymous said...

Funny comments at BR's post from last night, "Open thread: signs of a top". ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/open-thread-signs-of-a-top/


Comment at 4:01pm today,

JR :"Contrary indicator: my girlfriend thought it was time to buy stocks"

Mike in Nola:"For confirmation, ask a cabbie, if you speak his language"

Next comment - Mannwich.

CV said...

When Harry Wanger comes on and says...

"Here comes the 76 point drop to get us to my MAGIC NUMBER"...

I'll know we're there...

HW 'always' calls precise market turns...

AmenRa said...

CV

You had to mention HW. That's like saying Candyman three times in front of a mirror. LMAO.

Mannwich said...

I think MANY of us here have been walking "contrary indicators" lately. Just sayin.

Mannwich said...

This easily the headline of the night. Ya think? Must be inflationary.

Japan Wages Fall 0.6% as Recovery Slow to Filter to Households

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5PDUd2Ieqr8&pos=7

Mannwich said...

Is this our future in the U.S? I think so....A 21-MONTH consecutive wage decline? Did I read that right. Holy shit.

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s wages slid for a 21st month in February, extending their longest losing streak in seven years, a sign workers aren’t reaping the benefits of the nation’s export-led recovery.

AmenRa said...

What is happening to my posts? This is on both sites. They vanish when I refresh and reappear when I make a new post.

AmenRa said...

CV

Earlier I posted that mentioning HW is like saying Candyman three times in front of a mirror.

Prashant said...

Something clearly missing in correlation of Silver & Gold.
And by the way, EURJPY now touching 125.60

mcHAPPY said...

Lara does some good work at her site, www.forexinfo.us.

Her main count is bearish on the dollar.

Alternte count is bullish.

Short term I can make arguments for both but the alternate seems to fit with the BS that has been proliferating the markets of late.

Granted these days I continue to look for bearish arguments. This whole experience has further proved beyond a shadow of a doubt the markets can stay irrational longer than participants can stay solvent - excpet banks, of course.

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXkNFbGr96vo&pos=7

This will be big news if it goes through. No doubt there will be huge oil finds. Those of you intereted do a little research of the oil and gas industry off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada. THree current projects, plans for a fourth, and more oil found in extremely deep waters. Plus this is the North Atlantic - where the Titanic sank a.k.a. Iceberg Alley. Should be much more drilling friendly along US.

This is huge for US and hilarious for me personally becuase I was talking about peak oil and US dependency 3 nights ago in Amsterdam. My main argument was US could solve their oil issues by switching to natty gas as much as possible (extremely expensive for infrastructure and technology is the obvious drawback) or allow drilling off the coastal regions of the country.

mcHAPPY said...

Could anyone explain what is happening with the JPY?

Read something about japanese corporations buying or selling yen to balance year end books? Is this why the weakness? After March 31 could we see a dramatic rise in the YEN? Would tie in nicely with a correction and continued bullishness in the USD. Would also help drive EUR:USD to major resistence at 1.29, turn risk OFF and send some money back in to T's sending yield lower and give an excuse to return to QE later in the year.

Very quick thoughts. Hopefully I'll be able to check in later and see some replies.

Anonymous said...

hahaha the ADP just came in and you could hear someone throwing papers on CNBC when the number came out.

No matter, the number was "bullish" either way, never ending month after month of job losses, how could that not be bullish.

Ben22

Anonymous said...

look at govies.....

ben22

AmenRa said...

ben

I see buying of the 10YR...
The weekend plan for the markets just got bamboozled.

Nic said...

McH its called "yen repatriation" you can google it. There is a big IPO called Dai Ichi that might cause some extra flow and delay the effects of yen repatriation ending for a few extra days though.

ADP jobs numbers v ugly ... so much for the news stories. Funny what happens when you take out the census malarkey.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

Nic said...

End of month rebalancing high jinks in FX, EUR bullish and USD bearish. Last day of month almost always EUR bullish in London session due to flow

Bruce in Tennessee said...

On the other site, which I don't have on my office computer, dss asked if anyone is seeing evidence of a stronger economy.

I will say at the salt mine, we have gotten swamped with work. And in my specialty, much of this type work died down during the height of the recession.

Just my 2 cents.

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