Sunday Evening S&P Update

Good Evening Survivor Capitalists.

Attached here are some latest thoughts on the S&P 500. The bottom line for short term trading is that 1167 should now be considered key support. It looks like the market wants to take a quick ride to the low 1200s before terminating the wave up from the early February.

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I missed putting out a report last weekend due to the fact I was out of town supporting my wife's business at the last frontier of capitalism: the Warrenton/Roundtop Antique Festival. I think of it as the last bastion of capitalism because of the unrestricted nature of the event. Anyone can set up a booth for 10 days for a relatively cheap price (i.e. $200-->$1,000 for a 200 sq.ft space). There are few restrictions on what you can sell, how you sell it, or your hours of operation. Basically, if one brings good inventory and presents it well, one can have some good success. Alternatively, in one brings crap products, the marketplace lets you know it very quickly and the vendors don't return. This market efficiently "separates the wheat from the chaff."

I love going to this show mostly for the people. It's pure "Americana," as it's a beautiful cross-section of this country: from the true "gypsy" dealer who lives in his truck to the high end dealer accustomed to serving only the rich and famous. Everyone is welcome here.

Last night, while watching the Final Four, I had the privilege of chatting with a few folks at the "Third Base" Bar (A "real" country bar that only takes cash, serves only beer and has the menu scrawled on the wall) in Warrenton, TX. One person was an African-American furniture mover from Atlanta, GA. He had been moving furniture all over the state of Texas for weeks and was sleeping in a tent. He had this to say: "Hey, you gotta go where the work is. I've got a mortgage to pay. My wife complains about me being away so much, but this is good work. I gotta be here. This is good money. The bills don't stop." Indeed....

The other person I chatted with was a lady named "Jackie," who had been working non-stop in a food both for several days. She was a local who was studying to be a Registered Nurse. Her plan was to get her license and open an "Assisted Living" home nearby, bankrolled only by her family and friends (No TBTF banks involved here).

Both of these people look exhausted, but satisfied in their own way. Each was doing what they had to do in order to "make it." Those kinds of conversations make me hopeful about this country, despite our many problems. This remains one of the few places where you can easily "go where the work is" and improve yourself if you have the determination and a little bit of help from friends and family.

Let's hope it continues to be that way....

Hope everyone had a good Easter Weekend.

S&P 500 Update 4 Apr 10