TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 4.16.10

Morning Audibles 4.16.10

We're getting VERY CLOSE to the "kill zone" that I'd identified on my post of April 7th...

Reprint of APRIL 6th Chart.

Today's open market trading will be DAY 49. Remember also, that the 'correction' in January began in EARNEST on the Tuesday after OPEX WEEK. Today is is an OPEX Friday.

Some say history doesn't repeat itself, but it RHYMES...

A blast from the past.

The P2 "rally" wave (after the Stock Market crash in October, 1929 lasted until April 16th, 1930). So HAPPY 80th Birthday!

Is It April 1930 All Over Again?

That last leg up to the very top in April 1930 took on a similar slow-motion grind like the recent one. From the top in April 1930, investors and traders experienced 27 months of hell as the Dow completely collapsed until it finally hit the bottom in July 1932.

What’s interesting is the DJIA had several failed rallies (+19.3%, +27%, +31%, +39%, and +28%) on its way to falling 86% from that 1930 top.

If the DJIA continues to repeat the 1929-32 sequence of market events, we’re talking about a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 1500 somewhere in 2012.

The first loss of 7729 points on the DJIA from October 2007 to March 2009 will look like an absolute picnic if this final down leg in fact materializes. The good news? From 1929-32 there were several mini bull market moves mixed in with that 86% decline.

But everyone KNOWS that will never happen again, right? And even if it does, everything will be fine and dandy in the world, and you can just sit there all the while in front of your trading platform with a slice of pizza in your hand, and a 2 litre bottle of coke by your side...

I expect to see a lot of George Soros types running around within 27 months from now. Let's all exchange e-mails so we can all buy property together in the Hamptons for when that day arrives!

320 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 320 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: Good morning, ALL!! Looking forward to today, no matter what.. : ); April 16, 2010 at 8:43 AM
Anonymous said...: "U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in March to their highest level since November 2008 and permits to build new homes scaled a 17- month high, according to a government report on Friday that offered hope the housing market recovery remained on course."- CNBC

on course? lol

please- think about it- the tax incentives have brought demand forward- contracts need to be signed prior to 4/30- my guess is April will be down and May and June- should be grim- because there is not enough time to build a house prior to the closing requirement of 6/30 to get the incentive-

but hey it looks good now- so let's all get excited and wet ourselves- as CNBC does repeatedly; April 16, 2010 at 8:46 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and speaking of homes- see what $1.000,000+ buys you in Vancouver-

what a joke- via the "Market Ticker"

http://crackshackormansion.com/; April 16, 2010 at 8:49 AM
karen said...: LOL over BAC and GE "earnings."; April 16, 2010 at 8:50 AM
karen said...: they can build them but no one will buy them..; April 16, 2010 at 8:51 AM
Nic said...: Ahab that Vancouver stuff ain't a joke and it's not far off in Toronto, except in Toronto more are renovated.; April 16, 2010 at 8:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Eyjafjallajökull -the name of the volcano in Iceland. I have a friend from norway and I always tease him that there is no word Scandinavian languages that does not have a J.

I really want to know what that word sounds like.

bob; April 16, 2010 at 8:53 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty, Lefty, Lefty....I told you to ALWAYS read the fine print.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/04/15/online-shoppers-unknowingly-sold-souls/?test=latestnews

"A computer game retailer revealed that it legally owns the souls of thousands of online shoppers, thanks to a clause in the terms and conditions agreed to by online shoppers.

The retailer, British firm GameStation, added the "immortal soul clause" to the contract signed before making any online purchases earlier this month. It states that customers grant the company the right to claim their soul."

...But you Brits do love your video games.; April 16, 2010 at 8:53 AM
karen said...: CV, I must say, I do appreciate your attention to detail and the creativity expressed in your posts.; April 16, 2010 at 8:55 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Blankfiend bought one too...don't feel so bad...; April 16, 2010 at 8:55 AM
Anonymous said...: karen-

almost all permits are requested after a contract is signed for the home to be built-

spec homes not a risk most builder's take- at least w/ the builder's I've dealt w/ over the years; April 16, 2010 at 8:57 AM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll out-

all have a wunderbar day!!!; April 16, 2010 at 9:02 AM
CV said...: @karen

Thank you karen :-)

The POSTS themselves I try to put a lot of thinking into (whether it's TECHNICAL, or just SILLY CULTURAL kind of things)...

My comments, though, sometimes, are off the top of my dome... (So at times I can be like a cornered animal and the claws come out)...

While I REGRET that at times, basically I don't because that's simply the SURVIVOR instinct...; April 16, 2010 at 9:04 AM
karen said...: ahab, not in ca.. empty new homes by the tract full.. but what i want to know: Who is buying the dip in goog in this morning ?!; April 16, 2010 at 9:05 AM
AmenRa said...: ahab

A million dollars? There's no way I'd pay that much for most (actually any) of those.; April 16, 2010 at 9:05 AM
CV said...: I too, am very happy about either TODAY (or Monday or Tuesday, I think, of next week)...

The 'correction' is COMING around the corner pretty soon here...

Who knows, maybe we'll start to see the RICHTER needle starting to get a little agitated here in preparation for a big move...

It kind of happened that way in January...; April 16, 2010 at 9:07 AM
karen said...: oh, and dare i try to count the vacant spec homes? just remembered THE AUCTION results may be out today for THE STRAND "Luxury" Homes !! So close together you will be able to hear your neigbhor's toilet flush...; April 16, 2010 at 9:07 AM
karen said...: Homes headed to auction next week in my little town have over $ten million in unpaid balances.. haven't added up laguna beach, yet.; April 16, 2010 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: @ahab

I forgot to say...

That thing that you were describing that you cooked for dinner last night sounded pretty damn good! :-); April 16, 2010 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: @karen

Just for fun, you ought to click on over to KD's home page and look at the photo of the MANSION in Vancouver that the Chinese are paying 1.3 million for...

You'll get a laugh out of that one!; April 16, 2010 at 9:12 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Oh sorry... I just saw you already linked KD's...

CV is late to reading the comments here... I was out watering the veggie rows...; April 16, 2010 at 9:13 AM
CV said...: @bob

"Eyjafjallajökull - I really want to know what that word sounds like."

I don't know what it SOUNDS like, but I can pretty much guarantee you that it TASTES like chicken! :-)

"smoked chicken" (as the case may be); April 16, 2010 at 9:15 AM
McFearless said...: oh man, so yesterday I hoped BAC would double estimates, well, I got more than I bargained for I guess, hahaha. We need this all to happen in order to top, and as we all know we aren't going to top on bad news.

There were nearly 1 million foreclosures in Q1, as many here have been talking about, seems pretty believable that those people have not been paying and have been spending that money instead. As this process continues the pool of people doing that will shrink, and incomes certainly aren't improving enough to pick up that slack.; April 16, 2010 at 9:16 AM
CV said...: @karen

"Who is buying the dip in goog in this morning ?!"

I found an answer for that... You can see it here...

(see - here's the SELL ORDER)
00101010101011010110101010101
10101011010000101111101010101
01010110101010101010110101010

(and here's the BUY the dip order)
0010000000000000010101101011
0010101011001101010100000111
0010110110101010101010010101

It's right there in black and white! :-); April 16, 2010 at 9:18 AM
mcHAPPY said...: You FXP holders must be smiling this morning.; April 16, 2010 at 9:18 AM
CV said...: @McF

"seems pretty believable that those people have not been paying and have been spending that money instead.

CV looks at it this way...

This is a PHENOMENON that has been going on for many months now... We've been hinting about it on the blogs for quite a long time now and now the story is actually starting to pick up a little in the news MEDIA...

Right now we're still in the phase of... "GREAT! What a 'boon' to RETAIL STOCKS"... But as word of this gets filtered down to J6P, there's going to end up being a lot of outcry...

This time it won't just be TEABAGGERS... Or, if anything, it'll substantiate the view that "the TEABAGGERS were right all along"...

What I'm driving at is... as this idea spreads, it's going to KILL any idea the Congress has to extending more support in terms of bailouts... When J6P realizes that this isn't a HELPGING HAND, (it's a SHAM), he's either going to say STOP, (or he's just going to GET IN LINE himself and demand his fair share)...

It's what you call MORAL HAZARD (Mr. President)... You started the ball rolling... Now try and STOP IT!

This one you can blame on yourself! It'd have been better if you'd at least operated a DAIRY QUEEN in your life before... You'd have learned that giving free ice cram cones away for a week is no way to drum up business...; April 16, 2010 at 9:28 AM
CV said...: @McHappy (9:18)

From ear to ear!; April 16, 2010 at 9:29 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Hey CV,

Going into the mountains today, but I already posted on the other site what I think could wind up the biggest idea of the day:

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Germany might consider exiting Europe’s current monetary union to create a smaller bloc as the Greek crisis threatens to turn the euro area into a region of “fiscal profligacy,” Morgan Stanley said.

Greek rescue measures “set a bad precedent for other euro- area member states and make it more likely that the euro area degenerates into a zone of fiscal profligacy, currency weakness and higher inflationary pressures over time,” said Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in London, in an April 14 note. “If so, countries with a high preference for price stability, such as Germany, might conclude that they would be better off with a harder but smaller currency union.”

..Germany passed a balanced budget amendment last year, and I am sure they feel they are in bizzaro world in the rest of Europe. I realize this is just an idea at present, but if Germany left the other idiots to fend for themselves, I think they would do OK, and the PIIGS would be bacon. What do you think?

BinT; April 16, 2010 at 9:29 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

I made some comments on that yesterday after the close... I'll paste them here (note, some I was just being silly - other I was trying to give some thoughts)...

---COPIED FROM YESTERDAY---

CV said...
Morgan Stanley Warns Germany May Decide To Secede From EMU

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-warns-germany-may-decide-secede-emu

best comment...
BREAKING NEWS... Is the Pope a Catholic?

2nd best... (not up yet - but soon)
BREAKING NEWS... Do bears s*** in the woods?

CV's take...
Does the Pope s*** in the woods? (pondering?)

April 15, 2010 5:50 PM
CV said...
... onto more SERIOUS treatment of the issue...

People - THINK ABOUT IT THIS WAY...

Weimar was all about HYPERINFLATION (are you listening DL?)...

The US was all about the GD...

Not knowing ANYTHING (except for which people are either getting voted off the island, or 'booted' from Dancing with the Stars)...

Americans think DEPRESSION (deflation), is the 'worst of all worlds'...

Hansel & Gretel (over there), have heard all the HORRIBLE stories about wheelbarrows...

---

So people... If it comes right down to it, and Germany eventually PULLS OUT of the Euro, let's all those other corny economies INFLATE AWAY (just like Helicopter Ben seems to think he needs to do here)...

Well, CV doesn't want his assets in DOLLARS or EUROS, that's for sure...

That move, ALONE, would EXPOSE Bernanke for the effin FOOL that he is...; April 16, 2010 at 9:31 AM
karen said...: the euro wouldn't be worth a nickel without germany.. i seriously doubt that talk !!!; April 16, 2010 at 9:32 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

The Cliffs Notes version... (from CV)

1. Germany will do everything in it's power to avoid HYPERINFLATION

2. The US will do everything in it's power to PRINT and MONETIZE

---

May the best idea win!; April 16, 2010 at 9:35 AM
McFearless said...: I doubt it as well, I could see the EU break up, but it's doubtful that will be out of choice. Let's not forget there was talk from several states about how they would succeed, Texas, Georgia.; April 16, 2010 at 9:37 AM
CV said...: @karen

You wouldn't DOUBT it if you'd lived in Europe for any period of time...

CV has said ALL ALONG that the Euro was a joke and would never survive...

I was saying this BEFORE the Euro was in circulation... I paid for my house in Italy in Lira... Got the RE craze run-up & the Euro PUT running at the same time...

Then got the hell out of there...

Whether it happens now or later... The Eurozone will NEVER survive in the long term...

Germany knows this...; April 16, 2010 at 9:39 AM
McFearless said...: it's funny, in obama's space speech yesterday, after saying he'd shut down Bush's mission to the moon program he said something along the lines of:

"we can't expect to keep doing the same thing over and over again and think it's gonna get us to where we want to be!"

Crowd roar.

Meanwhile, I thought, well,... what the hell is your economic plan then?

And then on this board we get gems like this one:

"we just piled on more debt and got through it"

which is not what happened, and is hilarious. Just to confirm so I have this straight; The solution for too much debt, is ....pile on more debt. Yes?; April 16, 2010 at 9:41 AM
bob said...: The Germans are the big beneficiaries of the fall in the euro as the biggest exporter. Why would they exit? Why leave when threatening to leave is so much more effective?; April 16, 2010 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: srs is my best performer today.. fxp, second..; April 16, 2010 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: "we just piled on more debt and got through it"

HAHAHAHA!

That's like saying... I'm sitting at a dinner table with a group of people who just devoured a $3,000 dinner... Now I just PILED ON a $500 bottle of wine to that tab...

I just polished off that last bottle so... "I got through it"...

After dinner mint anyone?; April 16, 2010 at 9:44 AM
I-Man said...: "I'm selling D-Marks whattaya got, whattaya got?"; April 16, 2010 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Plaza Accord baby!; April 16, 2010 at 9:46 AM
I-Man said...: Just a little PTJ joke.

So... I'd probably buy the dip on SPX this morning at a 1205.5 print for a day trade.

Stop it out at 1204.25 and see what happens.; April 16, 2010 at 9:48 AM
CV said...: But this Plaza Accord will be between Germany and the rest of the Euro countries...

So ben, you saying "it's doubtful that will be out of choice." doesn't necessarily hold water historically...

These things have been MANAGED before...; April 16, 2010 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: You were only 5 years old though...

So I doubt you remember :-); April 16, 2010 at 9:49 AM
McFearless said...: C,

I'm just trying to make a forecast is all, the past is the past. The debt explosion will force a lot of hands in a direction they weren't planning on is the basic idea.; April 16, 2010 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: @McF

That is agreed...

CV is taking the stance that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE...; April 16, 2010 at 9:52 AM
karen said...: I can't believe they let Eric Sprott on cnbc..

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

unfortunately you have to see Maria..; April 16, 2010 at 9:55 AM
karen said...: CV, for fun.. would you consider doing a chart on CEF? I-Man, maybe you would like to..; April 16, 2010 at 9:57 AM
CV said...: @McF

Also - Think of it this way (and I know you can appreciate this because you understand SOCIOECONOMICS)...

When, in modern history, has Europe ever been able to UNITE for an everlasting period of time?

Answer: NEVER

Probably the closest they ever came was during the Roman Empire... (but even that empire didn't contain the Germanic Tribe areas)...

It was the Visigoths that eventually sacked Rome...

A decade of a loosely cobbled arrangement (Eurozone) between these cultures is a "blink of an eye" in human history...

It is unlikely to ever be remembered 300 years from now...; April 16, 2010 at 9:57 AM
I-Man said...: Anything for you Karen. Consider it done.; April 16, 2010 at 9:58 AM
I-Man said...: I meant 1203.25 on that stop...
JK.

Thats trading!!!; April 16, 2010 at 10:02 AM
McFearless said...: Hmm, I guess that idiot (wait, he's not dumb) Soros agrees that debt is not the solution to debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/geroge-soros-warns-biggest-market-crash-come-we-are-facing-yet-larger-bubble-credit-crisis; April 16, 2010 at 10:02 AM
CV said...: @karen

On the CEF chart...

On first glance, the chart displays such an extension pattern that it would likely be best explained in terms of FIBONACCI extension levels... (sort of the way you would look at a BIDU chart)...

What I'd actually like is to see AMEN RA take a stab at that...

Amen, go back to whatever BASE LEVEL you'd choose and make a table of FIBO extensions from that...

At that point, an annotated chart would make more sense (because you could also apply it to EW patterns)...

I hope that makes sense...; April 16, 2010 at 10:05 AM
McFearless said...: C,

In the large Socionomic textbook there are some really old "social counts" for Europe, very interesting stuff.

On another note, RR published a letter the other day from a subscriber that lived in Israel that seemed quite convinced that Israel would strike Iran sometime this year/summer but would never do so without US approval. I just thought that was worth noting.; April 16, 2010 at 10:05 AM
CV said...: @McF

(Soros)... So let me get this straight... Soros LEADS the PACK in getting obama nominated, but then when his boy triples the deficit, then it's all WRONG...; April 16, 2010 at 10:07 AM
CV said...: "Israel would strike Iran sometime this year/summer but would never do so without US approval."

---

There was a VERY LONG comment thread on ZH on that exact subject the other day... If you have time, you should read it... A lot of pretty good comments coming from all sides of the notion...; April 16, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: C,

I don't know anything about Soros and his political stuff, but, typically when that guy says stuff about the markets I'll at a minimum listen, and typically do a lot of thinking about what he says.; April 16, 2010 at 10:12 AM
karen said...: ahab has a great foto of an outdoor pool at the other site!; April 16, 2010 at 10:15 AM
CV said...: @McF

I'm AGREEING with you on 'Soros Market Calls'...

I just laugh to myself how all these BIG MONEY types (Warren, St. Jamie, Lloyd, Soros) were all out front in getting Obama elected...

I'm wondering if there is another side to the SLOPE OF HOPE; April 16, 2010 at 10:16 AM
McFearless said...: C,

Maybe those guys are just like everyone else and they got caught up in the social mood that was Obama.

I don't give credit to those guys like so many do about how they can scheme everything just the way they want it and it's all about their big master plan.

Of course, if we crash again, that will also be "part of the plan" according to many.; April 16, 2010 at 10:19 AM
AmenRa said...: CEF

low 7.76 (week of 10/24/08)

.021= 7.92
.0344= 8.03
.0557= 8.19
.09= 8.46
.1459= 8.89
.236= 9.59
.382= 10.72
.5= 11.64
.618= 12.56
.764= 13.69
.8541= 14.39
1.00= 15.52
1.618= 30.32

weekly 3LB mid= 13.77
weekly 3LB rev= 12.83

monthly 3LB mid= 11.79
monthly 3LB rev= 8.76

QED; April 16, 2010 at 10:20 AM
AmenRa said...: test; April 16, 2010 at 10:20 AM
CV said...: CV is watching XOM at the moment...

It would seem to me... If they want to hold this rally together for a few more days, they're keeping XOM as their "ace in the hole"...

It's still the BEHEMOTH, (and it ain't Memorial Day yet)...; April 16, 2010 at 10:21 AM
CV said...: @Amen (10:20)

Thanks! I-Man... You ought to use some of those FIBO extensions when you put that CEF chart together...; April 16, 2010 at 10:23 AM
I-Man said...: Yeah, I wont be able to do that one until tomorrow.

Today is Baby-I's 1st birthday... cant believe its been a year. Crazy.; April 16, 2010 at 10:24 AM
McFearless said...: based on the anecdotal statements all over the place Canada has one serious housing bubble going on right now.; April 16, 2010 at 10:24 AM
karen said...: thanks, AR! ben, i remembered that "Greatest Sucker's Rally Ever Played" link.. have it open in a tab. Mich Consumer Sentiment down.. am wishing i hadn't indulged in pizza at 7 AM.; April 16, 2010 at 10:28 AM
karen said...: Happy First! ha! I-Man, if you think this year went quickly, wait till highschool.. but the real blur is college.; April 16, 2010 at 10:30 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Interesting... It hit 15.39 on 12/2 (falling just shy of the 15.52 fibo extension)...

It sold off to 12.20 (the .618 extension)...

This attempt to RETRY 15.52 is failing at a 78.6% (thus far)...

If this is, INDEED a failure... It would seem to me that $10.62 is in the crosshairs...

karen - are you listening?; April 16, 2010 at 10:30 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I thought that was put together pretty well, crazy how similar it is today isn't it.; April 16, 2010 at 10:30 AM
McFearless said...: I-man,

cool stuff, 1st birthday. My biz partners oldest just turned 6 yesterday. Hard to believe, I remember the day she was born like it was yesterday.; April 16, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Mannwich said...: "The market".........must....never......go........down......again.

Everyone will be rich.

The End; April 16, 2010 at 10:32 AM
CV said...: AAPL... $250 today...

UFB!; April 16, 2010 at 10:32 AM
CV said...: Happy B-Day little I! :-); April 16, 2010 at 10:33 AM
AmenRa said...: McF

I can hear it already "Uncle Ben"...; April 16, 2010 at 10:37 AM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Congrats on the little one's 1st bday.; April 16, 2010 at 10:38 AM
CV said...: @Manny

"The market.........must....never......go........down......again."

I just figured it out Jeff...

See what we need to do here is to get YOU on Obama's "Mission to Mars"... You know - get you WAAAAAAAAAAAAY out of town for the 'Mannwich Indicator' to kick in...

So dude... Hop in your "gyro wheel" and get to training boy!

CV will kick in some "Tang" supplies from the basement! :-); April 16, 2010 at 10:38 AM
AmenRa said...: Yo what just happened?; April 16, 2010 at 10:39 AM
AmenRa said...: Just heard GS charged with fraud by the SEC.; April 16, 2010 at 10:41 AM
Nic said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-sec-charges-goldman-sachs-fraud-subprime-mortgages

WOW!!; April 16, 2010 at 10:41 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I have a question for you...

I know you kind of follow a theory about the first 5 "one minute" candles (on the cash open)...

But what do you think when you see a move (on one minute candles) like we just did at 10:36?

Do you apply the same type of reasoning?; April 16, 2010 at 10:42 AM
CV said...: @Amen

The PRINT STAMP on the GS move had 186.41 as the top...

Time to get crackin'...

Or... Time to RELEASE THE KRACKEN (as the case may be)...; April 16, 2010 at 10:44 AM
I-Man said...: Thx for the sentiments all! I'll tell him the cyber-friends said Happy B-day.

What happened on the 1min charts?; April 16, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: look at CEF on a monthly ten year chart.. looks like a sure bet if you can buy on the 50 ma.. also, looking at the 20 year of gold vs the 20 year of HUI paints a vivid picture of why the physical is all that matters..; April 16, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Nic said...: Happy Birthday I-Man; April 16, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Nic said...: PAULSON & CO IMPLICATED IN GS LAWSUIT; April 16, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: Goldman Sachs charged with fraud by SEC; shares down more than 5%; April 16, 2010 at 10:46 AM
McFearless said...: The start of GS epic fall?

Ah, one can dream....; April 16, 2010 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: did i not tell you all that GS closing 3 days over 180 was my line in the sand?!; April 16, 2010 at 10:47 AM
Nic said...: To be clear, Paulson & Co implicated in $GS SEC charges is the hedge fund, not former Treasury sec'y.; April 16, 2010 at 10:47 AM
75bat said...: so, karen, looks like that might put the kabosh on 3 closes above 180 for gs, yes? not ready to put on your red bull dress quite yet, huh?; April 16, 2010 at 10:48 AM
72bat said...: oops! you beat me to it lol; April 16, 2010 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud in Structuring and Marketing of CDO Tied to Subprime Mortgages

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2010-59

Washington, D.C., April 16, 2010 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Goldman, Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter.

Additional Materials
SEC Complaint
The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.

"The product was new and complex but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," said Robert Khuzami, Director of the Division of Enforcement. "Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party."

Kenneth Lench, Chief of the SEC's Structured and New Products Unit, added, "The SEC continues to investigate the practices of investment banks and others involved in the securitization of complex financial products tied to the U.S. housing market as it was beginning to show signs of distress."

The SEC alleges that one of the world's largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., paid Goldman Sachs to structure a transaction in which Paulson & Co. could take short positions against mortgage securities chosen by Paulson & Co. based on a belief that the securities would experience credit events.; April 16, 2010 at 10:48 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-59.htm

BR also picked a fight with ZH.

bob; April 16, 2010 at 10:48 AM
karen said...: who opened the flood gates?

B. of A.'s rising home loan losses weigh on banks
10:44 AM ET 4/16/10 | Marketwatch

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Bank of America Corp. and other large banks traded lower Friday after the company reported growing losses in home loans as worries about a double-dip in housing prices persist.; April 16, 2010 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: (continued)

According to the SEC's complaint, filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the marketing materials for the CDO known as ABACUS 2007-AC1 (ABACUS) all represented that the RMBS portfolio underlying the CDO was selected by ACA Management LLC (ACA), a third party with expertise in analyzing credit risk in RMBS. The SEC alleges that undisclosed in the marketing materials and unbeknownst to investors, the Paulson & Co. hedge fund, which was poised to benefit if the RMBS defaulted, played a significant role in selecting which RMBS should make up the portfolio.

The SEC's complaint alleges that after participating in the portfolio selection, Paulson & Co. effectively shorted the RMBS portfolio it helped select by entering into credit default swaps (CDS) with Goldman Sachs to buy protection on specific layers of the ABACUS capital structure. Given that financial short interest, Paulson & Co. had an economic incentive to select RMBS that it expected to experience credit events in the near future. Goldman Sachs did not disclose Paulson & Co.'s short position or its role in the collateral selection process in the term sheet, flip book, offering memorandum, or other marketing materials provided to investors.

The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs Vice President Fabrice Tourre was principally responsible for ABACUS 2007-AC1. Tourre structured the transaction, prepared the marketing materials, and communicated directly with investors. Tourre allegedly knew of Paulson & Co.'s undisclosed short interest and role in the collateral selection process. In addition, he misled ACA into believing that Paulson & Co. invested approximately $200 million in the equity of ABACUS, indicating that Paulson & Co.'s interests in the collateral selection process were closely aligned with ACA's interests. In reality, however, their interests were sharply conflicting.

According to the SEC's complaint, the deal closed on April 26, 2007, and Paulson & Co. paid Goldman Sachs approximately $15 million for structuring and marketing ABACUS. By Oct. 24, 2007, 83 percent of the RMBS in the ABACUS portfolio had been downgraded and 17 percent were on negative watch. By Jan. 29, 2008, 99 percent of the portfolio had been downgraded.

Investors in the liabilities of ABACUS are alleged to have lost more than $1 billion.

The SEC's complaint charges Goldman Sachs and Tourre with violations of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Exchange Act Rule 10b-5. The Commission seeks injunctive relief, disgorgement of profits, prejudgment interest, and financial penalties.; April 16, 2010 at 10:49 AM
I-Man said...: INDITE THOSE BITCHES!!!

INDITE THEM ALL!!!

Praise Jah.; April 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM
McFearless said...: wow, gs getting pounded, but, I just have to say it

is anything even going to come out of this, color me a skeptic.; April 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM
McFearless said...: you know what, screw that, I'm just going to enjoy this...it's about time.; April 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Magnestar should be next in line reading through the press release. They were doing the same things with DB, if I am remembering correctly.

bob; April 16, 2010 at 10:52 AM
CV said...: ABACUS 2007-AC1.

And you all thought GS had sophisticated "algo machines"

All the while, they've been "old schooling" it with an ABACUS

Sheesh!; April 16, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: BR succumbed to the Kool Aide; April 16, 2010 at 10:55 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

I usually look at the first five 1-min candles. This adds a new twist. But GS will make a few calls to let them know they can kiss the recovery goodbye if the SEC isn't put in check.; April 16, 2010 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: That GS candle is something else! it's barely moving the market, tho, or that money vampire FAZ.; April 16, 2010 at 10:58 AM
CV said...: From 1213.92 (on the S&P cash)

.013 = 1198.14
.021 = 1188.43

We had a 1197.27 closing 5 minute candle...

The 10 minute candle is still trying to resolve the 1198.14...

Could get interesting...; April 16, 2010 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: Between the TIME mag cover and this this... (thanks NIc for the cover and Emm for the article!); April 16, 2010 at 11:01 AM
CV said...: @Amen

"But GS will make a few calls to let them know they can kiss the recovery goodbye if the SEC isn't put in check."

But can't you see already that THAT is just the next plot line in this whole convoluted story?

I mean... Play the story out in your head... OK, months from now the SEC basically "drops" the charges (on a call from Washington)... & the market rallies back...

We're moving from the realm of JUST THE BLOGS talking about all this corrupt behavior, to the same behavior reaching the mainstream...

In the end, the Emperor will be seen BY ALL to have no clothes...; April 16, 2010 at 11:04 AM
bob said...: Max pain on spy @ 117.

AIG up 3.5% on the news. Haha; April 16, 2010 at 11:05 AM
bob said...: now 4.5% on AIG; April 16, 2010 at 11:07 AM
AmenRa said...: But we're doing God's work...; April 16, 2010 at 11:09 AM
Nic said...: Karen that Time cover is UFB; April 16, 2010 at 11:13 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I gotta say... We're fooling around with this 1198 candle on the 10 minute...

Close below that and it puts 1188 on the table (maybe even today)...

1188 would NOT make the WEEKLY candle look too spiffy...

Time to start thinking of 3LB's too...

If you get my drift :-); April 16, 2010 at 11:14 AM
I-Man said...: Emm has the dope links.

Just so everyone knows, I didnt "quit" the other site. I made the decision to not have a regular post there, and then...

Someone decided to remove me from the authorship ranks without consulting I-Man first.

Thats the reason I dont go there anymore- not because I dont like the people there.

Just been meaning to clear that up. I've been trying to hold it in, but just need to let it go.

Ahh...; April 16, 2010 at 11:15 AM
karen said...: That Time mag cover might be worth something on ebay in ten years.. LOL.. people pay hundreds for old Vogues!; April 16, 2010 at 11:16 AM
CV said...: .034 = 1172.65; April 16, 2010 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: I-Man, is "authorship" limited? maybe they just needed the slot for someone else...; April 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

You are not alone...

CV is not on the AUTHORSHIP RANKS anymore either...

I found that out just by looking at my OWN DASHBOARD... (IOW - when I sign into BLOGGER to Administer my own site, it shows all the blogs I have authorship on... The other blog appears nevermore)...; April 16, 2010 at 11:19 AM
CV said...: @karen (11:17)

No... That's not it...; April 16, 2010 at 11:19 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I'm pretty convinced now (per my 10:59 & 11:14), that we're going to hit 1188.43 (lower) on the final wiggle (after a small bounce here)...; April 16, 2010 at 11:23 AM
72bat said...: AUTHORSHIP RANKS, ditto
not that i had contributed anything
just housecleaning, i suppose; April 16, 2010 at 11:24 AM
CV said...: GS is getting absolutely POLEAXED; April 16, 2010 at 11:25 AM
I-Man said...: Nothing could possibly take away from the joy I am experiencing right now watching GS get the shit beat out of it.

Lets all be happy!!!; April 16, 2010 at 11:26 AM
CV said...: 7 years of college down the drain! :-); April 16, 2010 at 11:26 AM
Nic said...: Full juicy complaint:
https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7not0MAZdrXYzViODE3Y2UtYmI2OC00MmJjLWE3ZGMtZmI4MGNiYTkxYThj&hl=en; April 16, 2010 at 11:27 AM
bob said...: Find myself wondering, is this the good news at the top?; April 16, 2010 at 11:34 AM
AmenRa said...: Momo Mondays will be vicious....; April 16, 2010 at 11:34 AM
I-Man said...: @ Bob

The "good news" was BAC and GE this morning... lol.; April 16, 2010 at 11:34 AM
I-Man said...: Black Marubozu sure would be nice huh Ra?

Would that be considered a bearish belt hold?; April 16, 2010 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: Nic, thot you were sexting for a minute..; April 16, 2010 at 11:37 AM
McFearless said...: "Nothing could possibly take away from the joy I am experiencing right now watching GS get the shit beat out of it."

X 10.618; April 16, 2010 at 11:37 AM
McFearless said...: Why young people should buy stocks on margin?

I don't even know what to say....wow.; April 16, 2010 at 11:38 AM
I-Man said...: X 78.6 !!!; April 16, 2010 at 11:38 AM
I-Man said...: Ra-

Nevermind. Has to open higher.

Bearish Belt Hold
What Does Bearish Belt Hold Mean?
A candlestick pattern that forms during an upward trend. This is what happens in the pattern: following a stretch of bullish trades, a bearish or black candlestick occurs; the opening price, which becomes the high for the day, is higher than the close of the previous day; the stock price declines throughout the day, resulting in a long black candlestick with a short lower shadow and no upper shadow.; April 16, 2010 at 11:41 AM
I-Man said...: AT is loving life right now, with a big fat smile on his face, I'm sure.; April 16, 2010 at 11:43 AM
Nic said...: Obama approval rating jumps 32% in last hour (joke); April 16, 2010 at 11:43 AM
DL said...: These are just civil charges against GS.

They'll pay a fine, the stock will recover, and they'll go back to business as usual.; April 16, 2010 at 11:43 AM
karen said...: DL, are you suggesting to buy the news? lol; April 16, 2010 at 11:47 AM
DL said...: Karen @ 11:47

If one bought a few call options on SPY right now, there's a reasonable chance they could be sold on Monday at a profit.

Of course, it's a gamble.; April 16, 2010 at 11:49 AM
Nic said...: My candle primer to keep on your desk:
http://ow.ly/1zmGJ; April 16, 2010 at 11:52 AM
Nic said...: We should all be buying AIG, they could get some money back.; April 16, 2010 at 11:53 AM
I-Man said...: Nice link, Nic. Thx!; April 16, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Mannwich said...: You da man, lb. Looks we have our "signal", no?; April 16, 2010 at 11:59 AM
karen said...: Handy! Thank you, Nic! Oh, and get this:

Ex-Paulson & Co. Fund Mgr Pellegrini Was SEC Source In Goldman Case- DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Former Paulson & Co. fund manager Paolo Pellegrini was the Securities and Exchange Commission's source leading to the subprime-fraud civil case the SEC brought against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) on Friday, CNBC reports, citing a person familiar with the investigation.

Pellegrini told the SEC details of Paulson & Co.'s selection of subprime securities to be placed in collateralized debt obligations at the center of the case. Pellegrini left in early 2009 to start his own hedge fund.; April 16, 2010 at 12:01 PM
Mannwich said...: Mucho "props" to you to, karen.; April 16, 2010 at 12:02 PM
Mannwich said...: ZH site down now. Traffice probably overwhelming its servers?; April 16, 2010 at 12:02 PM
CV said...: @DL

"If one bought a few call options on SPY right now, there's a reasonable chance they could be sold on Monday at a profit"

I'll make a deal with you here... I PROMISE you the "last comment" on this (because I'm OVER IT from yesterday)...

But I couldn't resist a funny comment here...

"If one bought a large bottle of olive oil right now, there's a reasonable chance they could not only use it, mixed with a little balsamic vinegar & shredded parmesian or pecorino cheese on an arugula salad for lunch today"

... or on Monday
... or in May
... or in May of next year
... or in 2012

Now THAT's eatin! :-)

Go ahead... you get the last word my friend :-); April 16, 2010 at 12:03 PM
Mannwich said...: Take off those "DOW 11K" hats. For now.; April 16, 2010 at 12:07 PM
CV said...: @Amen

1188.64 stamped thus far...

Gettin kind of "squiggily wiggily" in EW land out there :-)

BTW - for all you NEWBIES out there...

Squiggily Wiggily is a highly technical trading terminology usage expression... :-); April 16, 2010 at 12:08 PM
Mannwich said...: Put 'em back on. ;-); April 16, 2010 at 12:10 PM
CV said...: I wish "onlooker" was here talking these "minuettes" & "sub-minuettes"...

I miss him! :-(; April 16, 2010 at 12:10 PM
Mannwich said...: Maybe he'll make a return, cv?; April 16, 2010 at 12:11 PM
karen said...: oh, come on, you know this is just a opportunity to buy the dip.; April 16, 2010 at 12:12 PM
Nic said...: Don't forget Greece in all this .
9.75% yield seen on Greek 3m T-bills on Bloomberg; April 16, 2010 at 12:14 PM
Mannwich said...: Bloomberg radio going gaga about these charges a short time ago while I was in the car.

Probably is another "buy the dip" opportunity, but I'm not so sure this time....

This could be their opportunity to slow things down a bit in the markets and get more $$$ into treasurys?; April 16, 2010 at 12:15 PM
karen said...: UGH, had to post at TBP.. BR thot he had a good retort to bondgirl, i think mine was better.; April 16, 2010 at 12:16 PM
McFearless said...: I think onlooker left to focus on improving his trading skills, that's my guess, he got into e-wave and I think he is trying to dedictate himself to it.; April 16, 2010 at 12:16 PM
Mannwich said...: Call me when Paulson himself is charged.....

Won't happen.; April 16, 2010 at 12:17 PM
Nic said...: Spare a thought for those who bought gold to hedge against risk on a day like this ...; April 16, 2010 at 12:18 PM
McFearless said...: people bought every dip during the sell-off in the GD, seems buy the dip is the mentality again.

It's THAT easy.; April 16, 2010 at 12:18 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Spare a thought for me, today, mid-morning, in the MIDDLE of doing GOD'S WORK, I stepped into the Executive Washroom at 85 BROAD for a few PRIVATE MOMENTS...

When I emerged, our stock is DOWN 10%. Can't a man take a dump without his WEALTH taking a dump?

Must talk to David, I thought we bought off the SEC years ago... wait till we catch up with that fucker Pellegrini...; April 16, 2010 at 12:31 PM
CV said...: @Nic (12:14)

Good catch!

Man it's hard to stay centered in a S***STORM sometimes... good catch!; April 16, 2010 at 12:31 PM
Leftback said...: CLAVADISTA D'ORO !!

Bad day for DL, and John Paulson (he has a gold fund).; April 16, 2010 at 12:33 PM
Nic said...: Karen - Next time we hear of big name traders leaving a firm remind me of today ;); April 16, 2010 at 12:33 PM
DL said...: CV @ 12:03

I really don't have anything against olive oil.

(Or even against people who think that P3 is imminent).; April 16, 2010 at 12:34 PM
karen said...: Didn't some people leave GS recently, too?; April 16, 2010 at 12:35 PM
Nic said...: Yeah that's what I meant.; April 16, 2010 at 12:37 PM
CV said...: @McF

Well I hope onlooker returns someday...

Broadly, I think ONLOOKERS counts were very close to being on the right track even back in January...

And I have to EXPLAIN that...

For CV to effectively "judge" the wave counting skills of someone is akin to asking Maria Carey her thoughts on putting together a FANTASY FOOTBALL draft roster...

But what I'm trying to get at is the fact that some VERY GOOD wavers have "admittedly" struggled with counts over the past 2-3 months...

Life isn't always spelled out in Black and White terms... It's not like "OH - QE, Dow to 36,000 because there is a PUT under the market... Inflation first - Deflation 2nd, bitches"...

Well, maybe it actually IS like that... Maybe it ACTUALLY IS that easy...

I'll admit that I'm too stupid to know (if that's the case)...; April 16, 2010 at 12:38 PM
karen said...: Bet Eihorn and Ackman are smiling handsomely today, sighing..; April 16, 2010 at 12:39 PM
Leftback said...: CV, pass the olive oil, please... DL is back.; April 16, 2010 at 12:41 PM
karen said...: Sorry, Nic, I thot you were referring to Pellegrini! That did cause me pause when I read about it last year..; April 16, 2010 at 12:42 PM
72bat said...: Lord Blankfein must be visiting the last 1,000 employees left behind at 85 broad street.
the loos at 200 west street no doubt have flat screens in every stall
"So far, 6,500 of the 7,500 employees that will work in the 43-story building have moved in. Chairman and Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein arrived a few weeks ago."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303828304575180581255747658.html; April 16, 2010 at 12:42 PM
karen said...: BR has a target of 142 for GS.. I guess we are all supposed to buy that.. rolling my eyes.; April 16, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Nic said...: Leaks about the Goldman charges?:
http://www.marketintellisearch.com/articles/1009243.html; April 16, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Leftback said...: I am in shock. Perhaps there is hope for Bananamerica.; April 16, 2010 at 12:46 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: I still prefer the karzy at 85 Broad. The seat is still warm.; April 16, 2010 at 12:47 PM
CV said...: All I know is that my FXP is up 9% today...

But the trading is effectively locked up because of the REVERSE split...

LOL

Ben, you were right... During P3... NOBODY will ever be able to redeem their positions...

No house in the HAMPTONS for CV (for 'shorting' the market)...

I'll have to content myself with my crops (and the olive oil I drizzle on them for salads)... That is, of course, until a band of maurauders comes by and shoots me in the head and takes it from me...

STBM ;-); April 16, 2010 at 12:48 PM
Leftback said...: The timing of this during the short ETF stock split?
Not accidental. They wanted peep out of those things before the news.; April 16, 2010 at 12:50 PM
Trendy said...: wow, 1st time looking at the markets today... sell in May start today?

Although my gold model turned to neutral and is still at neutral, a bearish signal was given last Friday, which surprised me after looking at the somewhat bullish chart. GLD was trading between 113-114 then, now 110 something. For the next few days, it traded in a tight range before collapsing today. I did state, start the bearish trades this week... pfft, why don't I follow my own advice!

Flying to the west coast today and will try to give an update tonight.; April 16, 2010 at 12:54 PM
AmenRa said...: Retail traders have their 2% correction that they've been waiting on...; April 16, 2010 at 12:54 PM
72bat said...: cv
how so locked up?
my fxp sell order was tripped 12:02; April 16, 2010 at 12:56 PM
CV said...: @LB (12:50)

I was wondering about that this morning...

I was thinking this...

You know... I bought FXP at $7 bucks (and I guess it did, I don't know, a 1-5 reverse split or something)...

Who knows? Maybe it's a way to keep JOHNNY out of those things...

Johnny likes buying "single digit" stocks...

Now that my shares are $38 ($35 basis - based on reverse 1:5 at $7)... That's outta JOHNNY's league...

I REALLY DON'T KNOW... It's all just AMUSEMENT to me...; April 16, 2010 at 12:57 PM
Leftback said...: Also they did it after options had been pinned...; April 16, 2010 at 1:00 PM
CV said...: @72bat (12:56)

You may be right... I haven't ACTUALLY tried to sell yet (I just noticed a "#" sign on it on my trading platform - so I assumed there might be some weird issues)...

If I were a SHORT TERM trader, I'd be tempted to book profits on it today... But I can hold on for awhile longer...

Under the NEW price accounting on that... It might WAVE AROUND and I'm hoping to see a $45 on that...(so I'm not going to "book" 10 when I think I can get 30)... If I'm wrong, so be it!

Monday I might give TODAY all back (on paper)...; April 16, 2010 at 1:02 PM
I-Man said...: Wonder if Paulson is unloading some of that GLD to help pay legal fee's.; April 16, 2010 at 1:02 PM
Leftback said...: Full FTQ going on in credit markets. Energy shares off big. That's the most likely sector for a bounce if anyone is feeling like getting LONG.

Karen, are Einhorn and Ackman really handsome?; April 16, 2010 at 1:03 PM
Leftback said...: Carry in full retreat. I assume the Aussie and Caddy are off, Nic?

EUR-USD 1.3503 -0.0070 -0.51%
USD-JPY 92.0200 -1.0052 -1.08%; April 16, 2010 at 1:05 PM
AmenRa said...: Funny how this comes out just as GS was about to get a second weekly close above the trendline off the 11/08 low.; April 16, 2010 at 1:05 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Retail traders have their 2% correction that they've been waiting on...

So is it "pin the (re)tail on the donkey"?, or the other way around?

No offense to your most recent avatar LB :-)...; April 16, 2010 at 1:07 PM
72bat said...: @ cv
"Monday I might give TODAY all back (on paper)..."
in which case i might just reacquire the shares dumped today; April 16, 2010 at 1:10 PM
AmenRa said...: Also is this a way to keep the news off of Greece as they default?; April 16, 2010 at 1:11 PM
72bat said...: cv -
perilously close to 200 comments - time for a new thread?; April 16, 2010 at 1:11 PM
CV said...: @LB

"Energy shares off big. That's the most likely sector for a bounce if anyone is feeling like getting LONG."

I'd postulated at (10:21 - above comment) this morning, that if there was going to be a KICK SAVE here, that THAT might be a likely candidate...

XOM MONDAY's anyone?; April 16, 2010 at 1:11 PM
Leftback said...: None taken.

JOHNNY bounce on Monday, then the real turnaround begins?

2s10s holding steady at 282 bps, the short end hasn't seen a bid like this in a long time. Money has been leaking into 2y Ts all week....; April 16, 2010 at 1:12 PM
CV said...: @72 bat

I'm going to let this one "ride out" (and see where it goes)... There might be a blip, but I have "good vibes"

Good catch tho! :-); April 16, 2010 at 1:12 PM
Leftback said...: CV

Will watch the action but the ERX/TBT combo has been a winner.
Obviously we would be "renters" of those vehicles.; April 16, 2010 at 1:13 PM
CV said...: @72bat

"in which case i might just reacquire the shares dumped today"

CV is a TIGHTWAD on paying commissions and on WASH SALES... I know, I know... It doesn't make sense in the aggregate...

OK then... Just call me LAZY... That about describes it! :-); April 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM
Leftback said...: Long OLIVE OIL, short CRUDE OIL today.; April 16, 2010 at 1:15 PM
Anonymous Proctologist said...: How are you feeling today, DL?
This won't hurt a bit.; April 16, 2010 at 1:16 PM
DL said...: "Johnny bounce on Monday" sounds reasonable.

But a 10% correction is still out there, although I don't think it'll be caused by imposing some measly little fine on GS.; April 16, 2010 at 1:16 PM
CV said...: @LB

"Will watch the action but the ERX/TBT combo has been a winner.
Obviously we would be "renters" of those vehicles."

ANOTHER friggin good catch!

PEOPLE... This SC day is one for the "books"...

Traders here have their GAME FACES on... Everyone here is SHARP AS A TACK today!

Kudos to all! :-); April 16, 2010 at 1:16 PM
I-Man said...: CEF looks tasty...; April 16, 2010 at 1:16 PM
Anonymous said...: CV,
just a thought... you could have "morning Audibles", then "Afternoon Audibles", and if needed, "Evening Audibles". This might help solve the posting problems.; April 16, 2010 at 1:17 PM

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Morning Audibles 4.16.10

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