Morning Audibles 4.14.10 - Can't Drive 55?

A couple of things have been on my mind the past couple of days... Most of it has to do with "telltale" indicators (such as VIX), and "one trade" indicators (such as DXY)...


I'll start with the VIX... Last week, I put up some charts showing that the VIX had "pierced" the lower BB's on DAILY CHARTS (and was close to doing that on WEEKLY charts as well)... This has been a precursor to "market corrections" in the recent past... I'll put those charts up again...


VIX WEEKLY




VIX DAILY


What strikes me most are two things. Not simply the BB aspects, but the relationship to "peaks" & "troughs" to the number 55 (a fibonacci number)...




There are dozens of "overbought" signals that have begun to flash recently, but that, to me, is the most compelling (and perhaps one of the MAIN reasons why this latest period seems to defy logic and seems to be MGUF)...


Another thing that has been bothering me are all the calls for DOLLAR CORRECTION... Last year, it was the "one trade" meme (DGDF & SPXGUF)... Why does that seem to be broken now? Or is it? Applying the same "55" logic to the DXY, here's the chart I came up with...


The DXY is now sitting on it's 55MA (and has not "closed" under it just yet)... This probably means one of two simple things...


- It's going to break down
- The 55MA will act as SUPPORT for yet another dollar wave


"One foot on the pedal, and one on the brakes"... Can YOU drive 55?



159 comments:

call me ahab said...

"JPMorgan Profit Rises 55% on Trading Revenue" - Bloomberg

looks like JPMorgan can stay within 55(-:!!

also- that has to be some of the easiest money ever made-

and lastly- the market appears ready to jump the rails and go airborne- locomotive- please- it's now a rocket to uncharted destinations- like cognos's Dow 36,000

CV said...

@ahab

Be my guest... (36,000)

Quick question... That ought to SOLVE ALL THE PROBLEMS IN THE WORLD right?

I mean, everyone could then just retire rich... The excess amounts would be given to the poor...

That's how it works, doesn't it?

CV said...

Plus... What were JPM's earnings? Did you read further?

"TRADING PROFITS"... Hmmm...

CV said...

GS 184

Time to see if karen really is going to turn to the "dark side" :-)

McFearless said...

C,

Interesting comments last night about what kind of music gets your larger groups moving.

Socionomics at work.

call me ahab said...

CV-

no doubt re JPMorgan- my comment was highlighting the trading revenue only-

Re the market- it all comes down to this-

will UE and the economy slowly improve buttressing the stock market's advance-

or- is it all a charade- where federal stimulus has kept the ship afloat- in my opinion- the USG will keep stimulus going- even in an on and off fashion- as long as it takes- forever- if necessary-

the bond market has not punished our men in the Treasury and the Fed- so in their minds- all is good- hand ready at the QE lever w/ ZIRP locked in for the remainder

karen said...

morning! need to complete my taxes today.. thanks for post cv.. will check in when i can! gs well over 181!

McFearless said...

ok, so we got the gap up this morning, please check DE's ED count. I do worry we could get a bunch of a's and b's and the ED could go on longer but it seems to be shaping up very well.

call me ahab said...

I have to roll out early this morning-

all have a good day!

Leftback said...

Time to see if karen really is going to turn to the "dark side" :-)

Amusing, and revealing - once upon a time we all might have looked on shorting as the DARK SIDE, now it is being LONG, especially anything BANKISH, that is EVIL beyond words.

McFearless said...

this was educational for me:

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/04/windfall-apples-need-be-reserved-for.html

72bat said...

@ market ticker today
IRA Does It Again (See, Again I Told You So)
denninger says, "What many people in the markets today believe is a "successful" execution of "extend and pretend" is to be proven woefully incorrect" referencing
this ira piece on cdo liquidations Event of Default and the Year that Wasn't Really
"Readers of The IRA should not be surprised. For the past year and more, the Fed and other regulators have been desperately trying to buy time -- but the end game has not been clear, save political expedience and delay. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed concern about the low level of interest rates and possible problems low or negative rates may cause. But he did not mention that the zero rate policy imposed by the Fed has done little to either restore private markets or boost the real, non-government sector.
"We can't think of a better example of the futility of Fed policies like quantitative easing than to see large and regional banks pretending that an ABS or CDO is still worth close to par, when in the secondary markets this paper is being auctioned for almost nothing. The Fed has window dressed the accounting for banks in 2009, while the actual market for this paper sees sponsors forcing acceleration and liquidation of deals."

so, tell me again, why xlf is riding so high?

karen said...

EDIT 4:40 PM - some data on the economy from CSX below; the irony in the statement below is that consumer related stocks and coal are 2 of the superstars of the stock market. In the end electricity consumption is one of the best barometers of economic health, so the fact that the US continues to not need a lot of natural gas and coal makes this 'recovery' thesis hard to get behind. But that's the real economy - the important thing for us is the stock market economy which is in a place of nirvana: (a) labor costs pared to the bone (b) government handing out money like there is no tomorrow to its consumers to spend (c) the new house ATM born (d) Ben Bernanke backstopping any carbon based entity on Earth. A potent combo.

While most shipments rose, the company said coal and consumer-related shipments continued to be weak. A drop-off in building products and other shipments related to the housing market persisted. Coal shipments declined as consumers and businesses used less electricity.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/

CV said...

Greece Yields Surge As Vigilantes Call Greek/EU/IMF Bluff, Stocks Drop

karen said...

jpm tidbits..

While credit losses continued to weigh on the bank's performance, they were less of a drag than in the past. JPMorgan set aside $7 billion for loan losses in the quarter, down 30 percent from a year ago.

JPMorgan said it lost $1.3 billion on its real estate portfolios, slightly more than the $1.1 billion it lost the previous year. Signaling that it expects further credit weakness, the bank set aside $3.3 billion for real estate loan losses, up from $3.1 billion a year earlier.

The bank's losses in its credit card business fell to $303 million, while provision for future credit card losses also dropped to $3.5 billion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-Chase-earns-33B-in-apf-557549089.html?x=0

CV said...

@karen

Just think... You won't even be getting a LUMP OF COAL in your stocking come this Christmas...

Leftback said...

Effing Squid in talks to buy my beloved Reds:

GS to Buy Liverpool?

Nic said...

Greece is back in the doghouse with Sovereign CDS now back trading at pre-bailout levels. Everyone whispering about Portugal today
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63D16M20100414?type=usDollarRpt
and news that some Germans are going to court to prevent Germany bailing out Greece aren't helping.
JPY trading is very ugly with speculation central banks are diversifying into yen rather than Euro until the Greek issue is solved.
In European stocks this morning there were just no sellers ...

I-Man said...

Morning Team,

Thanks for the post, Cee-lo-

Re: DXY

I think we'll probably take out the 55ema on the daily chart, but I doubt we get much of a correction in the sharp sense of the word.

The 55ema on the weekly is coming in at 79.37, and should serve as support.

I see greater potential for consolidation than retracement here.

I think we'll end up tooling around between 81 and 79.5 for the next couple weeks... which I view as a good thing for upside prospects in DXY.

This recent move seems to be capped at the 55ema on the monthly chart (82.28) so a little consolidation under that for a few weeks will build a base to move higher from... hopefully taking out that 55ema on the monthly at 82.28, and further confirm the trend change.

If you go back and check my last DXY s/r chart, 82 was a number of significance, it only makes sense that it would end up being an important hurdle in the future.

For ref:

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/04/usd-index-weekly-annotation.html

Leftback said...

The emergence of the NEXT sovereign debt issue will be the trigger for a surge by BUCKY. Greece will have us consolidating for weeks.

Not much going on. Treasuries are rock solid with Greek debt issues underwater almost as soon as they are issued...

I-Man said...

@ K, Re: your 10:00

Its the "steam" indicator...
Or the lack thereof, coming out of the factories across this country, that is showing up in electricity demand.

I live close to the port, and I'm just not seeing the "steam" that accompanies a booming manufacturing economy.

One of my favorite "local" indicators here, is this company:

http://www.beallcorp.com/

When I start seeing these guys cranking out trailers again, (and the steam coming out of their factory again) I'll know that there is a real infrastructure boom materializing.

Random anecdote.

McFearless said...

alright, aren't we all getting tired of the whole there is a greek bailout there isn't a greek bailout game.

they are going to default.

at least people are on to the next problem (portugal whispers), no sense getting all bogged down on one, it is a long list after all.

Nic said...

Weak dollar this morning was being blamed on delaying international launch of I-Pad for a month.

Portugal spreads are moving out, the vultures are circling ...

McFearless said...

the dollar is weak because the wave count told us it should be.....:)

Nic said...

Ha

Leftback said...

If Bucky catches a bid, and commodities crack, then it will be Domino Time. We may have taken up our last hedge on Ts for a while.

PLEASE if there is a Deity, let COGNOS lose non-significant amounts of money in the next downturn. Thanks !!

I-Man said...

Nic,
Rookie question:

Where are you seeing the weakness in JPY? Versus what?

Do you mean EURJPY?

McFearless said...

It's a great time to invest in the dips, try these strategies:

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/reliable-investments/698541/

I-Man said...

Nevermind, I think I got it...

The EUR looks strong against the JPY, which makes the JPY look weak?

Man, this pairs stuff is hard to transition to, when you've only watched stocks and etfs...

I could see where it would be easier for bond traders to adapt to fx, than equity traders.

Nic said...

In USDJPY someone is selling rallies big. Risk appetite today should have meant USDJPY was well bid.

McFearless said...

for other e-wavers and my new buddy Levitra,
Consider:

the DOW showed the diagonal coming out of a triangle in January but it was only the DOW that showed it. The January EWT letter said:

"The third zigzag, wave (Z), is ending with a contracting triangle and a diagonal, as shown in Fig 1. A triangle always precedes the final wave in a sequence, and a diagonal is always an ending wave. It is a rare pleasure to find these two forms adjacent to each other. The EWT documented this occurrence only once before, at smaller degree, in June 1986."

RP now can easily state: The triangle/diagonal combination completed the 2600-point zigzag sequence from July 8 to January 19, but not the larger move.


Consider now that the ED is showing up on the entire market, not just the DOW, unlike January. Whatever this next move is will be the most important of the last 3 years IMO.

Nic said...

USDJPY is a big driver for all the yen crosses. When the move is all about the dollar rather than EUR then EURJPY is an ugly choppy trade.
If EURUSD is falling and so is USDJPY then you sell EURJPY and vice versa.

I-Man said...

Yeah, thats some crazy volatility in USDJPY last few hours...

My gut says it goes way higher. Someone is fighting the tape.

I-Man said...

Ok, I'll write that one down.
Thx! :)

McFearless said...

Hat Tip to David BZQ, others may be interested:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10960

Interview with Chanos with focus on China. It's about 30 minutes.

Leftback said...

Waiting for a surge by USD and JPY together as an indicator of risk. There are only three havens at the moment. USD, JPY and USTs, so they should all trade together once the tipping point arrives. Gold is a fourth, but trades like a risk asset and a currency depending on events.

Watch the news flow carefully. They manipulated the news flow from March 2009 onwards and when they need to they will reverse it.

Great Chanos interview on Charlie Rose. "It wasn't the short sellers. It was the BANKS shorting OTHER BANKS. Look at the PROP TRADING records." Of course and one day it will all be revealed.

Leftback said...

McF: Great minds think alike....

Nic said...

Thanks McF

I-Man said...

Love me some Chanos... thx.

McFearless said...

My favorite part, it's the question retail never understands the answer to:

What happens if you are wrong on China?

A: Then we just take a loss.

Not every trade needs to involve going "all-in", you could be the best in the world at TA or fundy analysis but if you don't manage risk it won't make a bit of difference.

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
72bat said...

@ karen -
shopping online today?
Small Business is a Big Deal

Nic said...

Package explodes at San Diego Fedex, Bucky seriously injured. Stocks did not notice ...

karen said...

How embarrassing! I burst out laughing..

Corrected! Small Business IS a Big Deal

72bat said...

still who knew?
"mesh panels for ventilation & sexy body shaping style"?

bob said...

Nic thanks for the explanation. EURJPY keeps bouncing off 1.28-1.275. Looking back a year, it seems as though there is a second derivative relationship around that zone and 'the one trade'. Above (or moving up), risk on, below (or moving down), risk off.

Nic said...

Taxes keeping you busy ...

karen said...

Nic, they will be once I open Turbo Tax again! : )

I-Man said...

Quick! Buy Lulu!!!

BUY BUY BUY

Super Lurker said...

Nic, how'd you know about what happened down the street from me?

Tyler said...

cause Nic sent the package ....

Tyler said...

that Cartman/Crammer video that BR posted this morning was good :)

Nic said...

Its on Reuters and its being blamed for weak dollar in FX (cos they don't know about waves). Markets love rumours.

karen said...

That is so silly.. no one was hurt in the explosion and it isn't the first time that has happend at fedex san diego.. i am mesmerized by euro strength and dollar drop at the moment. thinking wtf! the market loves zirpf!!

bob said...

Just saw an AP story that it was some lithium ion batteries.

Best cartman ever-

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/155077

Nic said...

USDJPY UFB, a good lesson in what happens in crowded trades.

Super Lurker said...

Not only was no one hurt, it wasn't even intentional; just some lithium batteries going off.

karen said...

picked this up at MacroMan.. really good:

http://www.consumerindexes.com/retail.html

karen said...

SD in the news today! A surge in foreclosures, too.

AmenRa said...

Bucky: "I've fallen and I can't get up!"

karen said...

Nearly 1 in 4 Offices Vacant in OC and, the auction i've been waiting for ends tomorrow!

karen said...

O.C. foreclosures up 34%
April 14th, 2010, 6:00 am · 12 Comments · posted by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter
According to DataQuick’s monthly report for Orange County housing for March …
The number of defaults — first step to foreclosure — was 1,935 – that’s +9% vs. the previous month and -44.5% vs. a year ago.
Homeowners losing their homes through foreclosure numbered 723 – that’s +20.5% vs. the previous month and +33.6 % vs. a year ago.

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2010/04/14/o-c-foreclosures-up-34/30121/

AmenRa said...

Karen

Is that an ocean view in the second link? Nice!

DL said...

I got short ESM0 @ 1203; however, I'm probably going to wimp out and cover with just a small gain.

AmenRa said...

Quiet today. Are folks cursing their short positions? I am. Feeling like an introduction to C-Block in GP. And BB runs C-Block.

I-Man said...

@ DL

Might get some selling down to 1203.5 on the cash in the next hour or so.

Not sure what that is on ESMO tho.

I-Man said...

Could be a bounce at 1205.25 from the 1min crowd also... this may be more likely depending on how many are playing this gap and go.

Nic said...

I like 1208

DL said...

Could easily get to ($SPX) 1215 by Monday.

I-Man said...

You trading SP's today Nic?

AmenRa said...

Bill to restore jobless aid stalls in US Senate

It's getting warm outside and many citizens will not have any assistance. Not good.

DL said...

I-Man,

Nic's blogger profile lists crude, commodity futures and FX. No S&P's.

Nic said...

Hehe I used to trade S+P futs and FTSE.
My fib tool prolly works as good as yours

DL said...

According to Wikipedia,

"Fib" is a form of lying that is usually forgiven because it is not intended to deceive

bob said...

Every study on 'civil unrest' I have ever read cites unemployment among 18-30 year old men as a major contributing factor.

BR had a chart up a while ago where, I think, he was trying to point this out. Record numbers of unemployed males.

I-Man said...

lol

I-Man said...

Watch em undercut the 55ema on the 1min this time to shake out the weak.

Nic said...

DL - I don't need to lie, I will just tell you ... I am usually wrong.

I-Man said...

Whats funny about fibs on the intraday charts is that I never overlay them on my work charts, but so many are using them to trade off of, I can spot where they are roughly just with classic s & r.

They line up more often than not.

I-Man said...

"Me... I always tell the truth. Even when I lie."

DL said...

Nic @ 1:42

GREAT!

I've been looking for a contrary indicator.

DL said...

"They line up more often than not".


If there's a will, there's a way.

mcHAPPY said...

Shorted oil for the last time yesterday - lost big, yet again.

Broke a rule of trading and got angry, went long, up 3.9%, but still down a few hundred as I went with a smaller long position than the short.

No wonder the bulls are arrogant pricks. This isn't rocket science. Despite all the fundamental reasons not to be long or bullish, the bottom line is: being long over the last year would have had you in the red at most for 4-6 weeks (if you bought and held, of course) AND if you bought at the WORST times (i.e. June, blip in August, blip in October, January).

mcHAPPY is still a roaring bear but tired of getting burned. Here's to LONG with TIGHT TIGHT TIGHT stops. Hopefully I can switch SHORT in time.

*please note this should be a highly contrarian indicator*

mcHAPPY said...

Please note: not referring to any arrogant pricks around here. I mean the cognos of the world.

I-Man said...

EURUSD turning lower on 1min... should see SPX follow suit in a tick or two...

DL said...

McHappy,

When the inevitable correction in SPX finally arrives, it'll pull down oil with it. At that point, I think it would make sense to get long oil.

Personally, I'm very bullish on oil over the next 18 months, and perhaps even the next 5 years.

McFearless said...

1209.29 was a target on a decent count, 1206.8 was another in the same count, we'll see. I've been selling off stocks for clients all day today. Maybe I'm an idiot.

DL said...

McFearless @ 1:55

When the correction comes, hopefully they'll thank you.

CV said...

@McF

GIB :-)

McFearless said...

I need help from AT today, all i can count are a's and b's. Very annoying.

McFearless said...

"When the correction comes, hopefully they'll thank you."

If only it worked that way.

DL said...

McF,

They can't expect you to call every tick in the market.

McFearless said...

C,

That's just it, fighting the g.i.b. is hard man.


These are popping up all over the place now:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10725329/1/stocks-rise-retail-sales-suggest-strong-consumer.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

Money quote:


"The economy looks to be growing at a solid clip and with no inflation pressures,"

I think a few years ago we used to call this the "Goldilocks Economy" yes?

Cognoose said...

Why does everyone hate me???

CV said...

@McF

Doesn't the GOLDILOCKS story end with the 3 bears frightening her and she runs away from the house as fast as she can?

I-Man said...

I think we'll get that 1203.5 print... this looks like a punk bounce.

CV said...

Nearly 800,000 U.S. TV households 'cut the cord,' report says...(a new report claims that more and more viewers are "cutting the cord" in favor of watching their favorite shows via over-the-air antennas)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ytech_gadg/ytech_gadg_tc1598

---

See - you can get away with not paying your MORTGAGE or CREDIT CARDS...

Not so with your CABLE BILL...

DL said...

I-Man,

I disagree. I say it goes to 1203.672

AmenRa said...

I see the plan. Get the S&P to close at 1243 which will put the correction in Sep 08 away for good. After that I don't know.

McFearless said...

DL,

Sadly, that's exactly what some do expect.

DL said...

AR @ 2:13

I can't believe that SPX can make it all the way to 1243 without an intervening correction of at least 5%.

I-Man said...

DL, why you gotta be such a grumpy ass all the time?

AmenRa said...

McF

The cable companies turn customers off automatically (after a "grace" period) and then charge them their first born for the reconnect fee.

AmenRa said...

DL

BB just said..."Welcome to C-Block"

DL said...

I-Man @ 2:16

Thank you. That's the nicest thing anyone has said to me today.

McFearless said...

C,

I believe so, we just haven't gotten to that part of the story yet.

@Ra,

2:13, I agree, if that gets busted with authority I think most bears would concede a new bull market. There is still one count that allows for up to 1,300 but it's such a stretch, very low probability, I think it'll be a major battle just to get to the mid 1200's.

McFearless said...

C,

2:12,

well, let's see, the G.I.B would tell us that the average cable bill involves 7-800 channels, probably 5-6 new release movies per week "on-demand" at $5-6 each. Maybe $200 a month?

So, I guess that's helping fuel retail sales what with the cable bill being gone.

Honey, I just found $2,400, want to go to the mall or the tanning salon?

Coming this Winter?:

Unemployed burn the bills that the Federal Government sends them to save money on heat.

Of course, you could get warm in the tanning bed right.

CV said...

Between 1213 and 1209 there's a GAP on the WEEKLY chart...

So, FIB's aside, that should be a target at this point...

CV said...

@McF

If they cancel their cable subscription, how do they know what "stocks" Cramer or Tan Joe are telling them to buy?

McFearless said...

Alright, we need a sharp sell-off now into the close that breaks the bottom line on the ED.

Dream land right.....

McFearless said...

C,

what makes you think just because they canceled cable that they don't already have a new iPad?

AmenRa said...

Truthfully with sites like fancast.com. netflix.ocm, espn.com, etc does weaken the need for cable.

karen said...

I hope BAC HAS $231 million; altho perhaps it doesn't matter.. just 1s and 0s getting transferred to another bank. Oh, and $9 million to be withdrawn from C and $3 million with WFC.

CV said...

What makes you think just because they canceled cable that they don't already have a new iPad?

You can't "mysteriously" pull the internet out of thin air (unless you're near a WI-FI all the time)...

I guess people will just live out of shopping carts near Starbucks & Panera Bread...

DL said...

CV @ 2:43

I think you can buy continuous WiFi from AT&T for about $30/month.

(I have my eyes on Dell's mini-5).

McFearless said...

C,

Probably not as easy for you because you aren't so close to others, but i know in my little hood there are at least 6 people that have unsecured networks I could get on at almost any time.

Point is, I come across idiots all the time, if money is freed up they typically have it spent before they can even count it up.

How do you know that in the future internet won't be considered a "right"?

McFearless said...

DL,

I didn't the Dell look all that hot, does it have good features? Just looked like an iPhone to me on that link you put up.

DL said...

McF @ 2:49

I think you have the option of buying WiFi access on a "piecemeal" basis, i.e., for just one week or just one month. That would be one advantage over an iPhone, which costs about $100/month in fees.

CV said...

I despise arguing idiot notions...

"OK great... I'm going to cancel my BASIC cable & internet connection for $69 a month so I can justify a $30/month to get SLOWER wi-fi access (and ZERO TV programming - unless I want to watch tv on my little phone all the time), and have to buy a device with BUILT IN OBSOLENCE to do so...

Or, I'm going to roll the dice and hope I live in a neighborhood where some fools have UNSECURED wi-fi's...

Fine everybody... knock yourselves out...

NONE of that is even CV's point...

CV's point is that in the "so-called" technological upgrade to infinity, stocks going to infinity, everything going to FUCKING infinity...

I think it's a CURIOUS stat to see people DOWNGRADING to basic antenna for TV shows...

It belies EVERY green shoot argument out there...

CV said...

Forgive me... but CV is VERY irritated today!

AmenRa said...

CV

See my 1:19 post :-)

CV said...

@Amen

Maybe THIS will help ease your nerves (which is really hard to do in this moment - but try)...

Look at the SPX "MONTHLY CHART"...

You like "closing candles", right?...

The TOP in 2000 was in March, but the HIGHEST MONTHLY CLOSING CANDLE in 2000 was AUGUST...

Draw a line between that CLOSING CANDLE, the closing MONTHLY candle of 9/06, and the closing MONTHLY candle of 8/08...

Se what you come up with...

McFearless said...

C,

Sort of my point, wouldn't, gee, I don't know....food be smarter than an antenna?

No need to apologize, the idiot bubble pisses anyone off that actually takes time to think.

CV said...

@McF

I'm a pretty patient person and can tolearte it on most days...

But on SOME DAYS, every idiot in the universe (and there seem to be an abundance of them ) seems to rain out of the sky all at once...

CV said...

"food be smarter than an antenna?"

People don't realize yet that THAT will be the very definition of a "tv dinner" in P3...

Leftback said...

"I guess people will just live out of shopping carts near Starbucks & Panera Bread..."

CV, how did you find me? Black helicopters?

CV said...

@LB

CV has "high friends"... (in places)...

Tyler said...

how did you find me? Black helicopters?

Not this time -- the helicopters have troubles navigating between the canyon of buildings. It was the the white vans

CV said...

At least on an "irritating" day, there is some humor to be found (at BR's)...

Dumb Research of the Day: Dick’s Good, BJ’s Bad

I guess that's why those guys make the BIG BUCKS!

Leftback said...

and the men in the yellow coats, they just arrived !!

Tiger's Wood said...

BJs are rarely bad. Well not since high school...

Leftback said...

So now that we take out hedge off, long bond yields rise....
I should take the rest of the week off.

AmenRa said...

Damn they pushed Nasdaq Comp over 2500. They really like round numbers don't they.

Went to Tigers High School said...

Yes right, cos Tiger did THAT in high school (not) ...

Kudlow said...

Goldilocks!

Goldilocks!

mcHAPPY said...

Since February 16th, unless you have been:

a) super intelligent
b) super lucky
c) a combination of a) and b) AND sitting in front of your computer during all trading hours

it has been extremely difficult to be short anything in the equity or commodity world. It is a tough time to get a position on anything because short is, well that is self-explanatory, and long has been up for 2 months now.

This is excruciating and maximally painful. I hope in the future bulls feel this same way - the only difference is they'll have no cash to buy at P3 prices.

DL said...

McHappy,

Fuggeddabout a P3.

At this point I'd be happy with a 2% correction.

DL said...

Amazing how little the VIX has moved today, considering.

McFearless said...

yeah with all that inflation why consider a P3.

lololol!

72bat said...

@ DL
ditto

AmenRa said...

Using my "linear" fibo with the high from yesterday of 1199.04 I have the .00557 at 1205.72 and the .009 at 1109.83 (which was just breached).

Lord Blankfiend said...

There will be no P3 in the way you envisage it. We are in control.

At some point we will short JAMIE and he will short us. JOHNNY will go down with the ship. You lot, we could care less about.

I've got mine.

AmenRa said...

McF

If this keeps up we'll hit 1243 sometime next week. Sheesh.

McFearless said...

Ra,

Certainly possible. it won't be easy like that though, though emotionally it feels that way right now. too many other things internally that look like trouble, but yeah, trend is up.

what a show.

DL said...

McFearless.

In due course, in due course.

McFearless said...

Lefty should enjoy this one:

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/13/How-Winning-Can-Cure-Everything----Except-Debt.aspx

banksternation said...

mcHAPPY - Long time lurker here. Am feeling your pain. Have been stopped out of oil shorts twice (both at short term tops) and a large QQQQ short established in late Jan. Am pretty demoralized now, sitting and waiting mostly in cash with a small TLT and short European banks position to offset the beta risk on some special situation equity longs. Feel like we are reaching some kind of conclusion on the current move though, although I don't know which way it breaks from here.

Leftback said...

Every day they are just making this worse and worse when the bottom eventually drops out of this thing. This is what Hoenig was talking about, this market needs a swift kick up the arse before we enter serious bubble territory.

Leftback said...

"The Report" will be late today... will add to the Wrap.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Can you say "marubozu"? Arrgghh!!!

AmenRa said...

Weekly VIX turning into a morning star (I hope).

McFearless said...

More proof this will soon come to an end. Once the media reports the same thing over and over the trend is already stale:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/benefits-contract-abrogation-according-mark-zandi-6-million-people-not-making-mortgage-payme

Anonymous said...

@ Ra

Wow, thats a Full Marubozu... certainly not an everyday occurence. This may even be the first one I've ever seen.
-I

Anonymous said...

An observation:

nobody made a stink like this when BB was named Wizard, er oops, Person of the year by TIME.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/america%27s-back!-let%27s-just-hope-newsweek-doesn%27t-jinx-the-recovery-466439.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,XHB,XLF,SPY,RTH,MAN


b22/McFearless

Anonymous said...

(With a "gap up"...)
-I

Anonymous said...

Guess I need to pay more attention, huh? There's already been two others... IN APRIL!

mcHAPPY said...

We are all living proof of what we have been discussing for months and months. People are doubting P3, wondering how long this can go on, doubting themselves, questioning others, jealous of Johnny and Brian and cursing them to hell because they are retardly stupid yet profitably so. How do you think anyone who spotted the housing bubble in 2003 felt waiting? How do you think RP felt from 2002-2007 (granted he is a god)? How does Jim ROgers feel about his farming calls? How does anyone feel who has ever been right - only early - and subjection to ridicule and scorn?

Fuggeddabout P3? Never. But I will put it in the back of my mind and quit expecting it any day. With the knowledge many of us here have and any rabid deflationist, in five years time we will be laughing at this time. We should have reaped major rewards during the short and became this century's Buffet at/around the bottom. At that point I'll sit back with my solid blue chips and check the portfolio quarterly.

My only problem with this scenario is my attempts at shorting are eating away at my capital...... I have a fear I will be right and POOR. Mr. Market is a sonofabitch indeed.

AmenRa said...

mcHAPPY

I'm waiting for the weekly 3LB to start trending down which should lead to a monthly 3LB reversal. That may be the start of P3 (for me).

AmenRa said...

test

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