AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bullish spinning top day. Could be start of an evening star pattern (third day needs to gap lower). Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint above 10 SMA. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1196.48. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Closed below 21 SMA. Closed below the 55 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. Now trading back above the weekly 3LB reversal at 80.44.



VIX
Bullish doji day. Still showing traders are not fearful. Did not test the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint of candle is below 10 SMA. Five days of indecision. Weird. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Hanging man day. Still above all SMA's. Tested the 38.2% fibo ext and passed (barely). No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Closed below the 55 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (don't worry it's coming). No daily 3LB changes.



GOOG
Bullish spinning top day. Negated evening star. Held the 61.8% fibo ext. Tested the 85.4% fibo ext and failed. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 576.45. *Currently getting killed in after hours post earnings.





The Bond Report 4.15.10 (courtesy of LB)

Another solid day across the board in the fixed income universe. HY outperformed IG and TIPS > vanilla Ts. Interesting to see a steady flow of money into bonds with the equity market flying so high.... JNK is just about to complete a "double top".... hmm....

Corpies: LQD 0.17%; AGG 0.18%; JNK 0.53%; HYG 0.27%;
Govies: TLT 0.11%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.29%

We did nothing. So far this week, our not trading has correlated with our not losing any money... we are clearly geniuses at Schadenfreude Asset Mgmt. "If you don't know what to do, do nothing.."




"Or, even if you DID SOMETHING, say you KNOW NOTHING"

63 comments:

Johnny Retail said...

GOOG.

Not BTE..?
BTE but not as BTE as BRIAN told me?

AmenRa said...

Looking like Google needed an extra day to complete the evening star pattern...

CV said...

@Amen (re: GOOG)

STICKS & stones may break my bones...

CV said...

@Amen

That gave me an idea...

We could RE-NAME your DAILY CANDLE WRAP...

We'll call it "Sticks & Stones"

and we'll feature a Rolling Stones video with each array of charts!

Jumpin' Jack Flash! (it would be a gas gas gas!)

CV said...

BTW...

If you were wondering what PLANET in the galaxy CV lived on...

It's HERE :-)

Leftback said...

Strategic Defaults Increase Consumer Spending

Whocoodanode? What could go wrong?

CV said...

Morgan Stanley Warns Germany May Decide To Secede From EMU

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-warns-germany-may-decide-secede-emu

best comment...
BREAKING NEWS... Is the Pope a Catholic?

2nd best... (not up yet - but soon)
BREAKING NEWS... Do bears s*** in the woods?

CV's take...
Does the Pope s*** in the woods? (pondering?)

CV said...

... onto more SERIOUS treatment of the issue...

People - THINK ABOUT IT THIS WAY...

Weimar was all about HYPERINFLATION (are you listening DL?)...

The US was all about the GD...

Not knowing ANYTHING (except for which people are either getting voted off the island, or 'booted' from Dancing with the Stars)...

Americans think DEPRESSION (deflation), is the 'worst of all worlds'...

Hansel & Gretel (over there), have heard all the HORRIBLE stories about wheelbarrows...

---

So people... If it comes right down to it, and Germany eventually PULLS OUT of the Euro, let's all those other corny economies INFLATE AWAY (just like Helicopter Ben seems to think he needs to do here)...

Well, CV doesn't want his assets in DOLLARS or EUROS, that's for sure...

That move, ALONE, would EXPOSE Bernanke for the effin FOOL that he is...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

April 10
April 3
Change
March 27
Year


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Initial Claims (SA)
484,000
460,000
+24,000
442,000
609,000

Initial Claims (NSA)
514,742
415,012
+99,730

....The government says they are having problems with last week's initial claims. It seems the Non-seasonally adjusted numbers jumped by....100K! I know, I know...we are not in Kansas anymore...(and I read the Briefing.com "explanation")

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20100464.htm

Anonymous said...

CV, this P3 you talk about so much. It would affect Canada also? If so, I wonder what would happen to my cousins' EGO. I have 4 cousins in Calgary. They flipped like mad during 2006-2007 RE boom. One is a semi real estate agent. He got hold of a mortgage banker and used bank's money to flip. Man, they think they are on top of the world. They bought lot of property in India also. Now, they dono't even talk to us anymore. Although my mother helped them immigrate and settle in Canada.

I suppose relationships, today, are based on need.

mcHAPPY said...

I'm really digging this site lately. Check out the beginning list of reasons to be bearish. THen check out the Bear count. Then to really get your mouth salivating, check out the chart at the end for Russell 2000. It is screaming to be shorted - but not yet.

http://www.apartofny.com/2010/04/bull-bear-and-synthesized-ew-counts/

Nic said...

Good article about why Portugal is the next Greece: http://ow.ly/1z3Jy

Google failing to meet estimates might cause some selling in Asia and downward pressure on JPY crosses pulling everything back in the futures so you can buy it again tomorrow morning. Ground-hog night ...

I-Man said...

I think that EURUSD gap closes for good early tomorrow, but that the dip is bought. I think SPX will follow suit, open lower, and dip gets bought.

Just like Nic said. Rinse and repeat.

But the shit falls apart next week though.

SPX 1230.

Andy T said...

I bot 1200 strike puts on the sp emini futures today for 28pts (~1450/pop).

I bot for family accounts as well.

If we rally in the next few weeks and push to 1230s I'll probably sell some 1300 Calls as well. We call that a "Texas Hedge."

McFearless said...

man I missed all the action in the other thread.

C,

I'm no nutrition expert, but I looked at that costco "deal" and thought; how could that be enough food we spend that much on food every 5-6 weeks.

And I do agree with you about what happens to peoples moods when they don't eat like the are used to.

karen said...

This Market Has Its Freq ON

Nic said...

EURUSD sharply lower, UK Telegraph may have cover tomorrow "Morgan Stanley fears German exit from EMU"

karen said...

what action in the other thread? lol

call me ahab said...

so GOOG-

as I had envisioned- not BTBTE- not better than better than expected-

I'll let my QID/SDS positions play out tomorrow and sell by market close-

and from here on out- I just may SPY every Monday and sell at close-

I wonder what odds have been the last several months on that being a winner- 100%?

McFearless said...

McHappy,
Among other things in that link, that bull count is wrong. One simple example is it looks like the 3 approaching the green [iii] is the shortest wave. Plus, it only looks like 3 waves. You really have to force a count to make it bullish, and break a lot of rules in the process.

That is a cool site though, I think it's the one that did the Cramer vs. Elliot right? I like that they have several different counts.

Thanks.

McFearless said...

karen,

you didn't see? Everyone was putting their shoes in the avatar box.

j/k. :)

McFearless said...

This is worth scrolling all the way through:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-the-greatest-suckers-rally-in-history-play-by-play-2009-9#february-2-1930-market-recovering-faster-than-expected-1

Nic said...

CV - Re your doomsday preparations ...
I laughed like a drain imagining LB going around the KFC dumpsters for fuel to get out of town.
LB is the smart one, he will probably be on the last flight out to Tahiti where he and Karen can live happily ever after naked on a beach, living on coconuts.
I used to date someone whose family believed all this was going to happen with the bird flu, I am well versed in survival preparations!

call me ahab said...

CV-

have you considered that someone who is armed can take from others?

If my neighbor is prepared and I am not- what is stopping me from taking from him what I need-

especially if "law and order" is in disarray dealing w/ the chaos of a society in collapse-

reminds me of a mental image I had from the book "The Road" where they find a cache of survival supplies- but the owners had long since been killed

call me ahab said...

note. . .the last post was a follow-up to the previous thread regarding preparations for economic collapse-

lest there be blank stares and confusion

McFearless said...

social mood:

http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/obama-us-will-get-to-mars-in-his-lifetime/19441791?icid=main|main|dl1|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aolnews.com%2Fnation%2Farticle%2Fobama-us-will-get-to-mars-in-his-lifetime%2F19441791

McFearless said...

I couldn't make it all the way through that, it's too funny.

McFearless said...

and the best part:

White House science adviser John Holdren summed up Obama's program as "a faster pace in space, more missions to more destinations sooner at lower cost."

CV said...

@ahab

"have you considered that someone who is armed can take from others?"

---

I'm not irritated with YOU my man (but I'm irritated by that question)...

OK - For about the 20 "billionth" time I've answered...

I'M GOING TO NOW CHANGE MY TACTICS... I"M GOING TO ANSWER THE QUESTION WITH A QUESTION...

Do you REALLY think that someone that has gone through the 'meticulous' thought process of planning and preparing for any event outcome would have NEVER considered what you just asked (and have worked up contingency plans for THAT as well)???

I mean, how 'effin stupid do you people think CV is?

Answer: Pretty Stupid, Evidently...

It's akin to planning for a wedding reception and never thinking that it might rain...

"Oh WAIT, What if it rains?... Now why did I never think of that before?"... Boy am I stupid! - LOL

call me ahab said...

so . . .uh . . .fully armed- lol

dude- it's all good- I can get to your place- up the river- and drop my ahab pseudonym and maybe help you around the farm to earn my keep(-:!!!

CV said...

@McF

The headline alone is hysterical...

"Obama will get us to Mars in his lifetime"...

That's like ME coming out with a press conference and saying... "CV will get us to Mars in his lifetime"... I'll have NOTHING TO DO WITH IT of course, but if it happens before I die, and I said it first, I can assign myself credit for it... It's simply a "predictive outcome" of something within a timeframe...

Of course, without OBAMA, it would NEVER be possible...

But hell, I guess I believe him... He's already gotten our budget deficit to PLUTO in a years time... Mars should be a piece of cake!

CV said...

Is there a more WORTHLESS job on the planet than working in that Administration?

Nic said...

I guess CV - stupid would be posting your security plans on a widely read internet forum ;)

call me ahab said...

ahab will lead everyone to the "promised land" in my lifetime-

if it doesn't happen- well I'm dead- so who cares-

lol

CV said...

@ahab

That's IT baby...

Look... what bothers me the most about people, is answering questions from people that haven't made ONE SHRED of preparation beyond what's in their iPhone agenda...

I mean hell, half of America wouldn't make it to their next meal on the planet and yet they want to question ME as to whether I'm either sufficiently armed (or camouflaged - as the case may be)...

Not doing so is a PRIMARY CONSIDERATION in any case... It would be akin to walking down the streets of Compton, California with $100 dollar bills and bags of coke taped to your body...

call me ahab said...

CV-

hahahahahaha-

funny shit there my friend!

CV said...

@Nic

Ask yourself why the Germans were convinced that the WWII landing was going to be Calais...

CV said...

@Nic

& I'm sure there are bands of potential MAURAUDING BANDS OF BUCCANEERS just pouring into this site every day trying to get an idea of where I live so they can kill me for a bowl of spaghetti...

Nic - if someone wants to kill me for a bowl of spaghetti, they can friggin HAVE IT!

It would 'really/truly' be their loss, NOT MINE...

CV said...

Besides...

P3 is NEVER going to happen... So why should there ever be any potential marauding gangs of thieves anyway...

Unless someone thinks that there are gangs of people out there in cyberspace, right now, looking around and saying to themselves...

"Hmmm... There might be a P3, so if there is, I'm not going to bother preparing anything... I'm just going to be a PIRATE... So no need to buy a bag of rice... I'll just buy a gun and run around killing people until I run out of full metal jackets"... LOL

DL said...

CV @ 5:59

Inflation...depression; got it.

DL said...

Karen @ 8:26,

Just don't ever mention the term "ol*ve o*l".

call me ahab said...

"I'll just buy a gun and run around killing people until I run out of full metal jackets"

you're cracking me up-

but there are those that are fully stock piled and make their own ammo-

I use to have a buddy from Seattle- dude made his own cartridges-

obviously you need supplies but-

just like in Mad Max- dude was driving around just looking for gasoline-

and it was around- just a rare commodity

call me ahab said...

speaking of olive oil- just made some awesome tacos-

corn tortilla's cooked in olive oil in an iron skillet-

mahi mahi cooked in olive oil w/ some chili powder in a skillet-

cilantro, jalapenos, avocado, salsa verde and lime-

freaking awesome

AmenRa said...

SPX futures are down but there is buying of the 30yr. A squeeze is in the making...

DL said...

AmenRa @ 10:25

But what are the odds that ESM0 will get back to 1210 by the close on Monday?

Could happen.

Anonymous said...

@ Ahab.

Zero Hedge. In the end we'are all dead. How many of us really think that everyone alive today will be no more in about 120 years.

Kind of makes us sit back and really put things in perspective.

call me ahab said...

anon-

no doubt-

it's a one way ticket- make the most of it-

something I read years ago stuck w/ me- the dude talked about time being a bandit- a time bandit- stealing away your minutes and hours-

so the time bandit is there- but you have to do what you can with the time you have now!

AmenRa said...

DL

Anything can happen with BAC and GE reporting before the bell. Any reason to push the market higher will be used. I still think UPS reporting early is what kept the market churning today.

I-Man said...

I truly am laughing my ass off reading this thread.

I love you people... really do.

I-Man said...

Only Time Bandit I know has the Hillstrand's on it.

call me ahab said...

had to look that up I-Man-

wasn't familiar w/ it

call me ahab said...

alright-

gotta roll out to the "rack monster" (bedtime in Navy slang)-

early day tomorrow- try to catch you all in the AM

I-Man said...

The more I look at these SPX charts the more I see pain. 100 points in a week pain.

I-Man said...

But for tomorrow, I think you buy the dip.

I-Man said...

Ha... I just remembered we have GE and BAC reporting before the bell.

How ironic.

"Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony."

-Morpheus

Andy T said...

I've been wrong at certain price levels for short periods of time this last several months (i.e. 950 and 1150), for sure. And, I might be wrong again at this "zone," but I'm incredibly bearish right now.

Tomorrow I'm looking at going "all in" on the 1200 puts....getting asshole-short this market...

Maybe I'll regret it all, but I'm feeling sort of "giddy."

I-Man said...

"asshole short this market"...

Must be a TX thang.

I-Man said...

I dug the "Texas Hedge" too...
:)

I-Man said...

Local company out here I'm watching for a potential investment someday reports tomorrow, NWPX.

Good economic indicator, it is. I like the long term chart.

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone watch Spartacus? IF so, remember the last episode, pretty slow show, until the final 4 seconds. One of the brothers asks Spartacus how they will get past the guards and escape, Spartacus answers, "There is only one way - we kill them all."

I imagine Prechter sitting around taking a question from one of his hacks, "But sir, how do we get past the bulls to P3?" Prechter: "There is only one way - we kill them all."

Slope of hope, I'm waiting.

mcHAPPY said...

Mish has a couple of good posts this morning:

Easter comes twice a year.

AND

In baseball terms, the Contagion Team is at bat. Portugal is in the batter's box and Spain is on deck. Greece is on second base in scoring position. The EU is on the mound lobbing softballs while the IMF is in the bullpen warming up. Germany plays for team EU but refused to dress for the game.

This game could get interesting.

Nic said...

Morning ...
Divergences / correlations. There has been quite a divergence between EURJPY and indices lately. This normally predicts a move lower for both if past results hold true.
Key support for EURJPY is at 125.00

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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