First, the usual...
Now... "Let me tell you how it will be... One for you 19 for me"...
Which is APT... As 'soon' we will all be singing this song... (you don't know how LUCKY you are)
Pissed? Needn't be... Just sing THIS to cheer yourself up... ("brah" to you I-Man - Life goes on)
But if your name is "TIGER", you're thinking more along these lines...
Whatever you do... EVERYONE... Just remember the following... Despite the INEVITABILITY that "These [aforementioned] birds will have FLOWN", someday... Simply remember, in the end... YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE!
"Hold your head up high,
And don't be afraid of the dark.
At the end of a storm,
There's a golden sky,
And the sweet silver song of a lark.
Walk on through the wind,
Walk on through the rain,
Though your dreams be tossed and blown...
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone...
You'll never walk alone.
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone..."
You'll never walk alone...
Here... I'll help you SING it! (in a way that some of the lads from above would)...
Cheers! :-)
CV
Adding a chart here... DX (Weekly)
The week isn't over yet...
188 comments:
Best yet, CV. I wrote an additional check to Obama today, and used so much ink, I had to add an extra stamp to the envelope!
Weekly Claims WTE. Dow to 36000.
Loonie at par for the 2nd day. Futures not off as much as I would expect.
I see the unemployment numbers are up again. I think, being a small businessman myself, that before I hired a long-term employee, that I would have to see how next year's tax structure for new hires is going to shake out. Are unemployment tax rates for employers going up (here in Tn. they are), are we facing higher employer costs for ss and medicare (looks like it), am I certain that as stimulus is withdrawn and rates go up that our embryonic recovery will continue (got my doubts) and so forth...so we just continue on.
For Social Observation:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1469432313&play=1
Now, I'm not saying Hochberg hasn't made some terrible counts lately, he has, that said:
the media and George from New York find the need to question a bear being "early" when these guys have been telling non-traders to stay in cash for 10 years, and they have been right. I never once recall seeing them specifically pull up an e-mail and "call them out" with so many of the idiots that are regularly on the show. But since that fool Joe Kernan is going to bring up Laszlo Birinyi who's "looking at the same type of stuff" No Joe, he's not. Here's my own version of calling out, since you chumps can't seem to do it to anyone that is always bullish and please take note of his "favorite stock" for 2008:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_53/b4065044231464_page_2.htm
I'm beyond tired of hearing about how "these guys have been right and making money" No they have not. Booking profits over the last 12 months during this rally is not even close to the same as trying to get back to even.
and, please read Birinyi economic outlook above as well for 2008. it's unreal that they can get away with this shit, but even more unreal that 99% of people will just go along with it and never look for themself.
@Bruce
It's hard to see clearly on any kind of "explosion" date for things...
There are DIFFERENT dynamics at hand in a world where the VELOCITY of money continues simply because enough people are living "SCOT FREE" because they've decided to stop paying their mortgages, and continue to get $2000 checks each month because the government extends unemployment benefits to infinity...
All that activity keeps others MARGINALLY employed (due to simple SERVICING of whatever infrastructure operates under that false velocity)... Especially when the TAX BURDEN bill of creating that false velocity has not arrived at the dinner table yet...
I'm sure it can't go until infinity...
But hey... Have fun while it lasts!
Johnny's nervous. Doesn't know whether to buy or sell.
This is for you today, Ben:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcMQVCSdk-M
You can get this as a ringtone, too.
BinT
@Amen
If we get any more WTE news, then QE2 means the Fed will PAY YOU to hold the money they print...
CV is trying to figure out the exact DATE it will be that everyone wakes up and realizes that there is no real COMPETITION for goods and RESOURCES because they can all be purchased with money that does not have to be EARNED in any way...
I say that because the next logical step is people choosing to stop working altogether...
Which is when the real fun begins...
@Amen (9:58)
It'll take about 15 minutes worth candles by Lloyd & Jamies computers to TELL Johnny what to do...
don't worry!
How about that volcano erupting in Iceland?
bwhahahaha, the Labor Dept helps explain today's "unexpected" claims number:
"The Labor Department attributes the rise in claims not to economic factors but to continuing administrative snags as offices catch up with claims during the shortened Easter week and, in California, for the Cesar Chavez holiday."
testing?
Bruce,
I'm never in a good mood on tax day so I think I will get that in a ringtone.
First their banking system goes boom then the volcano follows. Hmmm I'd be very worried if I lived in CA (fault lines and such).
I-Man would probably buy the 1208 print this morning... although 1205 may get tested before the end of J Hour, this market looks like it wants to go higher.
Jeez... before I can even finish my post.
@McF
That damn Cesar Chavez!
Always mucking with the SPRINGWERKS!
I-Man
Yeah. Too much churning with no apparent direction.
oh guys, it just never ends so I have to share:
Just got an email from a client asking why we didnt' get into SRS since I mentioned in our last meeting I thought trouble was ahead.
iow, they think it's "up" that much today.
@I-Man
"1208 print this morning... although 1205 may get tested before the end of J Hour, this market looks like it wants to go higher."
Of course!
Trajectory (since Feb lows?)... ALL TIME HIGH on SPX by 4th of July (no kidding)...
Off March '09 lows? (flatter trajectory)... By September... (for those of you who have the patience to wait...
If anyone missed it, Jon Stewart has his own take on the current tax structure.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-april-13-2010/that-s-tariffic
I'm still spinning off put/calls and where the ended up yesterday. And we are already green again this morning. I haven't looked but the dow is probably off from one or two stocks.
So I guess we can chalk line 1208 as short term support now too.
This is energizer bunny shit right here...
Ben, remember how you were talking about P2 only ending in a crest of postive news? Well, get ready for that positive news to reach a fever pitch in the next few weeks.
AUD/USD looks like it wants to go for those highs on the monthly chart...
EUR/USD looks like it wants to make a countertrend bounce to 1.40 on the weekly chart...
FXI looks like it could be in the process of backtesting a downtrend breakout on the weekly...
Financials, transports, and tech all engaged in a funnymental orgy of ineptitude... enticing new buyers with promises of brokerage statements paved in gold.
Bucky wants to consolidate.
One more rabid assault higher in risk "assets" and we may have something to work with.
But until then, grab a seat, stab your leg, do what it takes to stay sane. We all need to be on point and not amongst the DB's (and I dont mean Deutsche Bank) when its high tide.
Looks like a great day to slave away in a cubicle for the machine.
One thing I've noticed about all of the economic reports. There are three options: BTE, inline, and WTE. The first two are guaranteed to push the market higher. WTE used to push the market lower but hasn't been doing so recently. So there's always a 2/3rd chance for a bullish move. Arrgghh!!
quote: "Financials, transports, and tech all engaged in a funnymental orgy of ineptitude... enticing new buyers with promises of brokerage statements paved in gold." I-Man
LMAO.
I-man,
You know what I'd love to see is some crazy euphoria over BAC numbers tomorrow.
It'd be nice to see them report .18/share and GE way above estimates as well.
You can pretty much count on it, McF.
BAC always tells the truth... even when they lie.
@I-Man
How did the "groupthink" suddenly evolve that Bucky is going to consolidate and the Euro is testing back to 1.40?
I think I'm the only one left on the planet who still sees Euro to 1.29 before it consolidates...
Oh well...
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/15/the-next-global-problem-portugal/?ref=business
"Next on the radar will be Portugal. This nation has largely missed the spotlight, if only because Greece spiraled downward. But both are economically on the verge of bankruptcy, and they each look far riskier than Argentina did back in 2001 when it succumbed to default.
Portugal spent too much over the last several years, building its debt up to 78 percent of G.D.P. at the end of 2009 (compared with Greece’s 114 percent of G.D.P. and Argentina’s 62 percent of G.D.P. at default). The debt has been largely financed by foreigners, and as with Greece, the country has not paid interest outright, but instead refinances its interest payments each year by issuing new debt. By 2012 Portugal’s debt-to-G.D.P. ratio should reach 108 percent of G.D.P. if the country meets its planned budget deficit targets. At some point financial markets will simply refuse to finance this Ponzi game."
...That is the trouble with today's generation...they can't stay focused! We barely "fixed" Greece and now those pesky Pourtugese...It's always something!
Thanks for the music from home, C.
LB stood on The Kop many times as a boy, and sang that song.
I try to stay out of the groupthink... just looking at charts. I'm sure that 1.29 is still a possibility, its just going to take another Greece, I mean Spain, I mean, Portugal... shit, I dont know.
I just think the EURUSD goes to 1.40 before its a clean short again. I dont like shorting with crowds.
I don't think it's group think on the dollar, I'm looking for a retracement, not consolidation, just based on the wave pattern, and virtually nobody believes in waves anymore right?
If I use Andy's count as an alternative it's still due to pull-back.
last year I wondered out loud if the market would ingore the initial rise in the dollar, guess I have my answer. If the dollar does three down here and starts to rise again I do not think stocks will ignore it.
I know I'm going to sound like a broken record here but it won't take a news event to move the dollar unless we are talking about daily spikes and not the trend, the dollar kept moving down for a time after Dubai was announced, it started moving up before Greece was really in the news.
From a poster at Dan's if you have taken a look yet at put/call:
http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/8470/nyaspxcpce.jpg
@McF
I don't know all the "ins & outs" of wave patterns like you and Andy...
But EYEBALLING IT... How can you say that Bucky hasn't already made a 3 down (since 3/25)?
Yesterday I made mention of the fact that the 1209 - 1213 area closed a chart gap on a WEEKLY basis (going way back)...
So I wonder if something will happen here...
Not doing anything though... Just curious...
Re EUR-
Move off the bottom and gap up this week was way too quick, IMHO.
High for the week was right off of the open(1.3692), continuing to make new lows(1.3521) overnight. Still lots of gap to fill from last week.
1.3540 is the level to watch, IMHO.
@McF
More on your PUT/CALL
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nasdaq-cumulative-tick-5300-highest-2002-relative-putcall-ratio-most-extreme-ever-bubble-now
Excerpt:
"Truly remarkable." Ben Bernanke has now succeeded at convincing virtually everyone that moral hazard is the right approach to dealing with an insolvent financial system.
Ben Bernanke - Our Market GOD!
@bob
CV is going off of "sentiment" more than charts (with respect to Eur-Usd)...
My definition of that is by Goldman putting out two INCORRECT CALLS in the past few weeks that they got stopped out on...
The most recent 'stab' at it is a Citi analyst (who said 1.40 with a "stop loss" 1.34.50)...
Everytime these chumps flap their gums about it, CV is taking the other direction...
1.29 is still the target for the OTHER DIRECTION...
CV
Agreed on the direction. The rush to cover at the end of last week is just subsiding. Too much air under where we are.
MA's on the 8h are looking like March 12-17, topping.
LOL
It looks like they did a reverse stock split on my FXP shares...
But in my TRADING ACCOUNT they've reflected the new PRICE (but not my # of shares owned)...
So it 'looks' like I'm up 385%...
Pretty good! CV is THE MAN! I'm a trading GOD! :-)
Note: Good thing my position wasn't RED... Otherwise I might be technically INSOLVENT according to the same accounting standards...
And if you were wondering... YES, that's pretty much how the BAC earnings reporting is likely to look tomorrow...
Portugal is the whisper today for sure Bruce.
This morning there were no offers for European sovereign CDS. It's rebounding for now.
Another day when central bankers don't want to diversify their dollars into Euro's and are buying yens on dips (selling USDJPY).
C,
Just think, if you owned ZSL it's show +800%. See my post at 10:08, I'm still laughing.
@ben
I didn't get what you were referring to on that post...
Now I do... LOL :-)
GIB is all I can say... I don't envy your job!
CV
They did a reverse split on 10 ETF's: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ProShares-Plans-Reverse-etfguide-3112205133.html?x=0&.v=1
yeah cv, couldn't dump my srs in my schwab ira online today 'cos the old shares no longer exist and the new shares haven't been delivered. since it's an ira can't enter an order online to sell against the yet-to-be-delivered new shares. have to call in and have a schwab broker do it.
btw notice nothing from ms. karen this a.m....
up to her armpits in turbotax today no doubt and not allowing herself to be distracted by the traders-anonymous repartee
lo siento mucho
@bob (or McF - because I know you like to look at these types of LARGER things)...
If you take a look at the 200MA on the WEEKLY dollar index... It's sitting right on support here...
The BROADER trend, it would appear, is that when the dollar is OVER that line, we're in a world of hurt...
Under that line... It's RISK ON BABY... DGDF
It seems to me you have to place a bet here (one way or another)... These are MACRO trends...
Keep in mind that the 89 week MA on that recently "crossed above" the 200MA...
JTOL
@72,
do you like Scwab's set-up? Happy with the service, etc?
C,
Check your e-mail.
Can't get a good chart(with MA options) on the USD, but did notice that on the weekly and daily we are also just on the bottom BB.
SPX 14-day RSI 79.06. This is the highest since 26th Oct 2006 (subsequently followed by 2.3% correction), and before that 23rd Nov 1998 (3.6% correction), and before that 22nd Nov 1996 (5.9% correction).
Anyone fancy selling some spooz?
@McF
Thanks... I keep going on the notion that it took FOREVER for the dollar to finally squiggle out that last 5 wave...
Thankfully, I'm not in EUR-DOL here (but I'm still using it as more or less a proxy)...
I still believe in the "all one trade" idea (although the 'correlation' seems not to be working in equities recently)... I think that will 'correct' soon...
That tail seems to be wagging the dog here...
@bob
you can go right to stockcharts.com (for a free one)...
@bob
Or, if you wait a second, I'll pop one in this thread...
Nic-
I say 1230, then I would.
Put call ratio for equity options (not indexes) now lowest since 1997 ...
what is RSI going to be at 1230? What will Put/Call be? Insanity, but hey, gotta trade.
nice stats Nic.
@ ben -
my ira has been with schwab for years now. they introduced a whiz-bang new interface a year or so ago, but i've never bothered to switchover as i am most familiar with the old one and it is a good enough for the low number of trades i do.
Prechter only said "some" of the zaniness from the last two bubbles would appear during Primary 2, not all of it.
UFB, an add on to the client nailing me for not buying SRS, I kid you not, I had a client just e-mail to tell me they are interested in flipping houses.
CV
Got it. The BB's are different from the Bloomberg chart I was looking at.
The daily is still pretty close to the bottom, not so much the weekly.
72,
thanks, I was on their site the other day checking out the Active Trader platform. Looked very nice, and they are offering 150 free trades as well. No futures there though.
mcf-
you should flip your client the bird.
ben -
active trader platform = "streetsmart.com acting trading tools"?
in any case, more than i need at this time
@bob @McF
Take a gander at the DX WEEKLY chart that I put into this thread...
Considering the fact that Bucky is ABOVE the 200MA , and the only other period in a LONG WHILE that we had that phenomenon in many years was the period between the Lehman collapse and March '09...
I think it's worth considering...
And ben... It perhaps EXPLAINS why the wave counts seem 'screwed up' or hard to count at the moment...
McF try PFGBest, they have the best platforms. I thought IB was clunky, didn't get along with it.
Look at the 233 SMA on the weekly SPX. Broke below in 6/08, retested in 8/08 and back below in 9/08. It hasn't been touched since. But we're getting close and it's definitely resistance.
Ra-
What does that come in at?
I can only run 233 ema here-
Sweet... lets set up a fake H&S top on the 10min chart and get a bunch of shorts rev'd up before screwing them again...
EUR-USD 1.3541 -0.0112 -0.82%
EUR-JPY 126.0440 -1.2470 -0.98%
Carry traders are not carrying the load today.
JOHNNY on the spot. BUCKY showing us some steel.
I-Man
This week the 233 SMA is 1232.23
Fun fact: EMU/IMF Greek bailout amounts to 4,000 euros per Greek. The equivalent per-capita bailout of US would cost about $1.8 trillion.
Fun fact #2: Greek bailout is ~18% of GDP. The equivalent 18% in US would be $2.6 trillion.
No wonder the rest of Euroland doesn't want to pay.
LB taking a hard look at SPX 1225- 1235 for sellin' some SPOOZ.
If/when we play - we like the little 'uns even better...
IWM shorting WILL be profitable.
@I-Man
1232.23
@Amen
What's interesting too is that the 55SMA off that SPX WEEKLY comes in around an "ascending" level of 1038...
A real sharp correction, say 21 fib days (4 trading weeks) could act as a buffer (somewhere around the 1044 support line - or whatever fibs work out based on the final top count)...
MORE INTERESTING...
The 89 week SMA (I call it the "Louise Yamada" line), is still trending down...
The levels right now appear to be drawing a TILTED H&S pattern... The "neckline" for that would be down near 1,000 as we speak...
@LB
I think that "spiral dive" that the JPYEUR did yesterday spooked the CARRIERS...
I'm sure Johnny didn't notice...
Tan Joe doesn't talk about things like that...
@LB
I think that "spiral dive" that the JPYEUR did yesterday spooked the CARRIERS...
I'm sure Johnny didn't notice...
Tan Joe doesn't talk about things like that...
Mish has a nice chart today of housing. Check out his blog for the whole post.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S8YgoS8a2gI/AAAAAAAAIN0/tJ3Fiimcmy4/s1600/japan-land-prices-update-2010-04-14-rgb-176-10-10.png
Thx Gents!
I dont know why my charts wont run the SMA's...
When I try to plug it in it says:
"SMA: Numerical parameter should be between 1 and 157"
But it works fine with EMA's...
Weird.
Not sure if anyone mentioned this but the VIX at 15.23 broke the low readings Oct. 2007 top and May 2008 top quite handily - as Oct. 2007 beat May 2008 eventhough markets were lower. Something to be aware of - as I'm sure most here are.
test?
Ok... just checkin. :)
We don't talk about currencies on Fast Money.
I am kind of hot, though, with my pouty lips, ya think?
Sorry gurl... but you just aint my style.
Keep poutin tho-
@Nic,
thanks for the brokerage tip.
McF- check yo email
C,
How about B. Marshall going to Miami
McF @ 11:35
I have an account at Interactive Brokers. Not saying they're the best, but I wanted a broker who would meet both of the following criteria:
(a) will permit both stock trading and futures trading, and
(b) provided, as an option, a web-based platform for trading that does not require a software download.
There's only a small handful of brokers that meet both criteria.
Oi-Man,
Maybe yew priffer copping an Oyefull of my Brusts?
DL,
Many of the people that I've spoken with that liked IB would usually mention the lack of slippage as a big positive.
thanks for your comments as well. I'm not big on th eidea of software download either.
Hey Mandy...
I hear you like rastas...
You're way hotter than pouty lips fwiw, but you really need to quit stalking me on facebook.
DL
Just out of curiosity, why no download?
I-Man and McF:
The computer that I use during NYSE trading hours is provided by my employer, and it will not run unauthorized software.
blogger sucks
This is a long but very important article on swaps and munis. GS and DB seem to have been up to the same tricks. I just don't see Europeans bending over for the IBs or turning the other cheek like Americans. Sooner or later this is going to the streets.
St Etienne and Swaps
LOL... mine either.
Frustrating, aint it?
Especially when you're trying to log time on a futures trading simulator during market hours.
Are we getting close to 200 comments or something?
Listened to talk radio this morning on the way to the salt mine...the topic? "Preventative" gastric banding to prevent heavy teenagers from becoming morbidly obese adults...!
Bread and circuses...this isn't the US I grew up with...
McF
I get fast execution but as for slippage that's the market sometimes ...
They have an online platform as well that you don't have to download.
If you are at home you can choose or swap between e-signal, x-trader, currenex, ninja-trader so good choice too.
Nic @ 1:53
But no stock trading, right?
http://www.pfgbest.com/
(That's the catch)
Does anyone else have this incredible feeling of anxiety and foreboding today? Or is it simply that this is Tax Day?
I've felt like that for nearly a month LB, if I'm being real.
No anxiety and foreboding yet (at least not related to the stock market).
However, I would not be suprised to see the SPX drop 5% in a week, in the not-too-distant future.
What kind of guns and ammo are we gonna need for this P3 thingie?
You can start with a AR-15... thats kind of the barrier to entry for a real P3er.
Grenade launcher if you're a real kook.
Samurai sword, if you're on CV's compound.
Maybe Hank could lend you his bazooka.
What's that some kind of semi-automatic?
Plus there is the ponzi guy that lives up by Manny, he's probably looking to unload that sub for almost anything right?
@LB
"Does anyone else have this incredible feeling of anxiety and foreboding today?"
After opex week... It's ALWAYS after opex week...
I'd be more worried about having some cash, as in actual notes, during P3 than I would guns. I'd want some gold too.
@anon
If the gun store is cleaned out... Here are some guys who could probably school you in the ancient art of pea shooting...
http://www.emmawoodphotos.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/PeaShooting.jpg
In a real P3, its back to bow and arrow bitches...
DL
They have securities thru their subsidiary here:
http://bestdirectsecurities.com/
@McF
I'd want food (& seeds)...
McFearless @ 2:17
And you keep half your money under the mattress, right?
Nic @ 2:20
Something to consider, then.
McF
Safe deposit box, home safe, hidden, or all three?
DL,
I have to say this. You are more than slightly annoying of late. Try to stay away from the taunting and we'll take it easy on you during the next P3 or CLAVADISTA d'ORO.
Now let's get back to Greece, Portugal and the Euro.
Nic, how long can carry disconnect from equities and commodities? Correlations break down at inflection points...?
Anon @ 2:22
Ask him for the address while you're at it.
LB,
Only slightly more?
I keep mine in the local bank...
Because as soon as I make my deposit, I know they put it right back there in their safe to hold it for me for whenever I need it... :-)
VIX making new lows. Op Ex on Friday.
Things that make you go... hmm ?
LB
They do say that correlations break down at inflection points but it can be a choppy mess for a while. I can't see an index I would short technically yet except maybe the CAC40 (France) which has not yet taken out Jan highs.
I have a really bad sinking feeling too, but I don't know how reliable it is. I had the same feeling last August when I wish I had just taken the month off.
Nic,
Just saw those other tips above...thanks again.
DL,
"And you keep half your money under the mattress, right?"
No, I had this other idea so I carved out the middle of an old book and stuck my cash in there.
Anon,
Safety deposit box. No way. Think that through, in a real emergency that's the last place you'd want to keep stuff you need, they would restrict when and what you could access out of there if things really got bad. If there is a P3 there will be runs on banks. Home safe works but there are other things should still consider. I-man says bills don't work well buried underground. :)
here for starters:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/
but really P3 is never going to happen....it's just a crazy deflationists dream.
If you want to prepare anyway (smart) you could do a search on
"Certificate of Indebtedness" which is another safe way to hold cash in large amounts.
International: SafeWealth Consultants Ltd.
Metals storage:
SafeStore Ltd.
These all come from CTC updated edition.
Should get you started.
McF, those shiny metals and fiat paper money won't help you when armageddon comes. You need canned food and gasoline and things to barter and probably a gun or two.
I am joking ...
It's not even a market feeling since I read the article about swaps and municipalities on Bloomberg this morning. It's existential. They have really gone too far this time and they are going to blow it all up.
It's really about what will happen when J6P finally begins to know what we know, maybe during the second great fleecing - and then begins to do something about it.
It's more like the Scottish guy in Dad's Army:
"We're ALL DOOMED..."
Nic,
fwiw, I'd trust a women's gut instinct over my own any day of the week. Women are quicker to admit that they are wrong, men are stubborn, we are never wrong...until you just can't deny it that is.
I'm curious, do you only do pairs trades?
I'm saving that article for this weekend Left, figured I'd need to give that one a lot of attention.
Nic,
yeah, paper, it'll work early in the panic, after that, yeah, you better have some food. I think costco has a year supply right now for about $900. I haven't taken that step yet, sad to say.
If it happens (P3), CV is already where you want to be.
LB will be out of Gotham.
yeah, I'm going to CV's for P3. He's pretty close to me so I could walk it if I really had to.
That's cool right C?
btw, the Beatles vids were great this morning.
McF
At the moment I trade pairs yes, I really like it but its not for everyone. With futures it is easy just to trade one currency directionally.
I would like to do more commodities, at least when the pit closes you can sleep!
I used to have a good option strategy but it stopped working so on the shelf for now.
@Ben 2:36
"men are stubborn, we are never wrong...until you just can't deny it that is."
Truer words have never been spoken. Have I told you about my experiences with oil? LOL.
Although I am up after correcting my latest blunder with stop losses set to only lose $100 if they are reached. After this go around, not sure if I'll be doing oil again. Especially not with TYP, FXP, and FAZ screaming to be shorted at some point in the (hopefully near) future.
McF,
Feel the same way about the home safe as I do about a safe deposit box. Basically useless.
Thanks
Dylan Ratigan is breaking ranks with MSM:
Ratigan Breaks Ranks
The first comment is correct. TBTF banks are a fascist cartel. This is why I am so fearful. Fascists are even more violent when threatened than the communists, and we don't know how deeply they are embedded in Bananamerica.
Good video to keep your eyes focused. 0:40 says statement of the year "good trading opportunities coming up". Looking for 102.7 on DXY by December 2010 or early next year.
http://www.forexinfo.us/2010/04/15/usd-index-elliott-wave-analysis-%e2%80%93-14th-april-2010-video/
Ben,
Keeping with the women admitting fault sooner - notice Lara didn't waste anytime abandoning her wave counts once proven incorrect.
McHappy, you aren't alone, I have been trading oil the hard way the last couple of weeks too.
Above comment about shorting FAZ, FXP, TYP. Obviously these are already short funds. Meant shorting underlying indices - US financials, China, Nasdaq. Sure most knew what I meant though.
LB -
I read the St Etienne stuff, very sobering reading.
AEP is right, we need a biblical debt jubilee otherwise we will never get out of this.
When Greece defaults its going to get ugly, there is no grace period on Sovereign CDS.
@LB
"It's existential."
The EXISTENTIAL feeling I get is the following...
This past move (since 1044), has been sort of a trial balloon...
I think the idea was to see how many BEARS & TECHNICIANS started "really crowing" about things, and how much "optimism" on the part of JOHNNY would really gather...
This is the MONEY MOMENT of the 3 card Monte, the moment that the JOHNNY steps up to the table and puts his money on the table...
Frankly, though, it doesn't FEEL like the dealers want the game to end just yet... I think they know that when it ends, it ends FOR GOOD...
So the only thing left to do now relates to TIME, more than it relates to levels...
Since March 2009, we've only really had TWO corrections that approached 9%...
- The one last June (in retrospect), was too early...
- The one in January, BEARISHNESS set in too early
I think they have now convinced everyone that we can withstand a 9% correction... The process for doing that should buy enough time to get us through AT LEAST the next quarter...
That's why I'm kind of convinced that the SPX will NOT stretch to it's ULTIMATE technical high right here... It'll fall just short... Then correct about 9% again... The next ramp can take it just barely higher (providing yet another opportunity to offload some of their crap before they finally pull the plug on it)...
Bottom line?
I don't think we can go much higher, but I think there are ways to postpone the "3" of "P3" phase until later...
McF or Andy will tell you... It's not P3 that will be scary... It will be the "3 of 3"...
Right McF?
McHappy,
We all do it at one point or another, just gotta learn from it and get better. Just like any athlete would do when they fail (strike-out, etc.)
I'll have to check out that update, 102.7 sounds like a radio station but I like it as a dollar target as well, right now I can't count out that far based on the short term count but I'm generally bullish on the dollar the next few years, just not sure we can get that far by December, I'd expect P3 to be in full force if we did.
b22/mcFear.
For Karen:
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/more-on-anecdotal-benefits-of-strategic.html
@McF
That COSTCO "years supply of food" is a bunch of BS...
There are not enough calories in those portion packets for it to work in REALITY (it's just a bunch of BS marketing)...
Those things have about 450 calories PER DAY in those sizes... Unless you fancy yourself a prisoner at Auschwitz, THAT AINT FOOD...
What AMAZES... Truly AMAZES CV about people's "lack of preparedness" (with regards to food), is they fail to take into consideration the "psychological aspect" of it...
It's one thing for humans to eat, it's another thing to EAT WELL... Your typical American, if put on a calorie restrictive diet (or diet that lacked in variety, taste, or nutritional value), would become a ZOMBIE within two weeks time (psychologically)...
Your thinking and reasoning functions would take a serious hit...
Being "prepared" with food takes a lot of forward thinking and insight...
CV @ 3:08
Don't forget the olive oil.
cv -
just for the halibut - what's your list of supplies laid in (per person)
I thought this was a good thought from Deron Wagner... head of Morpheus Trading Group:
(This guy is money when it comes to trading ETFs, btw...)
"As long as the trend remains up, and momentum clearly continues to favor the bulls, traders definitely should not argue with it. Yet, aggressively buying new positions at current levels, without properly planning for and respecting the possibility of a sudden, swift pullback, is a surefire way to give back hard-earned profits in the blink of an eye. Perhaps our overall thoughts of the current market environment are best summed up by an excerpt from our latest monthly report sent to our fund investors last night. We said, "This month, we remain positioned primarily on the long side of the market, as the trend remains up. However, because the major indices are now approaching major areas of resistance from their year 2008 highs (as illustrated in our April 12 commentary), we're now utilizing caution through tighter stop placement and slightly reduced position size. This should enable us to continue generating profits, but with little risk of sustaining a significant drawdown in the event of a pullback in the broad market. Based on the market's resilience of late, it's easy to forget that markets move both up and down, but forgetting this basic concept can have extremely damaging consequences (as many investors learned in 2008). Agreeing with our thought that it's easy to forget markets move in both directions, one Partner replied to say, "Amnesia appears to be nearing epidemic proportions." Indeed -- couldn't have said it better ourselves. Go with the bullish trend while it lasts, but keep your running shoes nearby, just in case you suddenly need to sprint to the exit door."
http://www.morpheustrading.com/
@DL
I'm sure you're trying to be 'funny' there DL, but you're really just exposing your stupidity (with regards to the issue)...
1. Try finding 'olive oil' in MOST of the United States in the depths of a p3...
2. Olive oil is easily stored and has an extraordinarily long shelf life.
3. In a pinch, it's oil and can be burned and/or has other uses
4. It's nutritional & caloric values are almost without comparison... 9 calories per fat gram of a HEALTHY FAT...
---
So excuse me, but whoever makes 'pithy' comments (like yours), I hope all you can find are cheetos and twinkies to eat in P3...
Nic, Ha! thanks for the cheer up, not! laughing.. i just screwed up a count and will have to start over : (
I slept from 4:45-6:30 AM this morning.. not proud of myself for leaving this to the last minute.. wouldn't have been so bad if my data transfer had worked..
"Frankly, though, it doesn't FEEL like the dealers want the game to end just yet... I think they know that when it ends, it ends FOR GOOD... "
Yes. I think that nails the mentality. The Street is always always about GET IT WHILE YOU CAN. LB has one or two friends on WS who think 2009 or 2010 may see their Final Bonus Ever.
I think DL imagines olive oil finds use as BEAR LUBE.
LB has a lot of olive oil stored away for when momentum changes.
Bear lube, yes.
@Ben
Check out the Lara/ForexInfo link. At the start of the video she gives the count from early 2008 and of course goes through what happened until now and expectations in next 6-12 months. What really caught my eye (I even paused and followed her wave counts and time frames along the bottom) is how rapid and fast the dollar moves were. In P1, wave 2-3 unfolded in just under 5 months. The correction A and then up to B was done in 3 months. Being on the right side of the trend when P3 starts will be extremely profitable - short and long - because of the major whip saws. Of course it was the grinding B-C wave that caused a lot of shorters pain, along with anyone who expected wave 1 of 3 to be the start of P3 in equities/commodities. Wave 2 of 3 is surely to re-ignite inflation fears and provide an opportunity for markets to get pumped again or (probably more likely) for Jamie and God to sell to Johnny. All this is setting up for wave 3 of 3 for the dollar to be extremely explosive. I am hoping the second half of '10 brings much joy for bears - and hopefully they have enough capital left to take full advantage.
DL's mood is linearly and predictably related to GDX.
@72bat
It comes down to A LOT MORE than storing food...
You have to consider things like:
- How LONG can you store something for (what's it's shelf life)... It doesn't make much sense to have food for some unexpected event (that may never arise - as in the case of DL, who is so SMART, that even if a P3 occurs, it'll NEVER, EVER, impact him personally, he'll just keep trading e-mini's through it and somehow get magically fed in the process)...
- How you store it (keep it free from mold, mice, insects, moisture, sunlight & other things), that would ruin it...
- How LONG you expect to endure (a few weeks, a few months, a few years)...
- Alternatives, etc.
Some examples off the top of my head...
- Best to have a lot of DRY GOODS (rice, flour, sugar, beans) sealed away in airtight bags, THEN put in plastic storage containers... (mice will chew through plastic bags, but they cant get through plastic bins)
- Canned goods (mason jars filled with the vegetables you grow each summer)...
- Some handy things that store for a long time (like peanut butter, olive oil, other oils, coffee, tea, honey)
- Things that "facilitate" making other things (dry yeast to make bread, powdered milk, rennett tablets to curd fresh milk to make cheese, cheesecloths, brewing yeasts to make wines, sake, beer, or even moonshine)
- Seeds (sealed in packets) for important foods... (Tomatoes, onions, lettuce, cucumbers, corn, wheat, rye, barley, rice, watermelons, squash, potatoes, etc.)... Staple foods
- Jerked meat
- Lots of WATER
- Maybe a few spirits (things may get depressing), so you need to get drunk before to learn how to make moonshine and your own homemade grog - don't worry if you don't prepare - just wait until the next spring, pick dandelions and you can make wine out of that)...
Stuff like that...
and it's best if you either live near a farm, or have adequate land (and water), so you can breed (and feed) your own livestock if necessary... A hatchery (for eggs), a chicken run, and maybe some goats are the easiest...
@CV
"That's why I'm kind of convinced that the SPX will NOT stretch to it's ULTIMATE technical high right here... It'll fall just short... Then correct about 9% again... The next ramp can take it just barely higher (providing yet another opportunity to offload some of their crap before they finally pull the plug on it)...
Bottom line?"
I can very easily see this happening, especially new highs again after 9% or so. The only thing you left out once it starts going down fo' real is Andy T's "Slope of Hope".
I have no trouble believing that the SPX could drop 70% some time in the next 5-7 years.
I have no trouble believing that we could see a repeat of the inflation and stock market performance of 1966-1982.
But I don't really see a repeat of the 1930's-style unemployment, unless perhaps the debt-to-GDP ratio of the U.S. becomes far greater than it currently is.
Tomorrow: PUMP em, PIN em and DUMP em...?
@ben
And as far as "quantity" is concerned...
Again, it's an issue of how one expects to have to go on surviving during a shortage (assuming there were NO ACCESS to sources)...
A typical adult make would need between 1800-2000 calories per day to function (at minimum)... More, because your calories burned per day would go up due to the need to do more physical labor...
A female would need AT LEAST 1500 calories...
And consider that MOST Americans "drink" about 400 calories a day (in alcohol, juices, & other things)... You'd need to make that up with extra food if you were only drinking water...
Why do you think the contestants on Survivor lose so much weight?
Just water... and there's no butter or oil on those bowls of rice they're eating...
1 gram of carbs = 4 calories
1 gram of protein = 4 calories
1 gram of FAT = 9 calories
at a 60-15-25 mix of 2000 calories... you'd need 300 grams of carbs, 75 grams of protein, and 55 grams of fat, per day...
You could survive with less, but you'd be a ZOMBIE...
@DL
Technically, we're already at 1930's style unemployment...
Look, I'm not talking about MAD MAX here, I'm talking about people living in a different way...
Hell, basically the way I lived in Italy for 12 years...
People living off of VERY SMALL PENSIONS... What do they do? They huddle up...
Families stay together, stragglers band together... Everyone lives closer to the land (or sea)...
The EARTH provides your living (not the f***ing airports, hotels, & conference rooms)...
We need very little when it comes down to it. Some weeks I spend nothing except my subway fare, as an experiment in minimalism.
As long as we as a country can borrow our way out of our fiscal problems, that is what is likely to happen.
Eventually, we'll become Greece (or worse).
@DL
"I have no trouble believing that the SPX could drop 70% some time in the next 5-7 years."
You naively underestimate the LIFESTYLE FALLOUT of what a move like that would actually create...
A move like that? And the world is bankrupt...
- Pensions? bankrupt!
- Entitlements? bankrupt!
- Services? stopped
- Shortages everywhere
You just think it's something to TRADE THROUGH...
There are NO WINNERS in that event... ONLY SURVIVORS...
gee ben, srs closed @27.99 today, up 1.34 (5%)
oh no, sorry, yahoo finance shows it was up 22.66 (425%)
no wonder you have clients ready to jump ship
GOOG getting hammered AH...
Bid: 577
Close: 595
CV,
Didn't the S&P just drop 57%...?
We just piled on more debt, and got through it.
But...
Only right back to where it was on TUESDAY morning... lol.
@DL
What's noticeable about Greece, is what happens THE VERY MOMENT austerity measures are even hinted at...
- burning cars
- burning buildings
But of course, that will NEVER happen here... Why?
um...
Cause we'll just keep 'borrowing it' (and/or printing it)...
YOU'RE GOING TO FACE A RUDE AWAKENING SOMEDAY if you think that'll go on forever...
And if it is, REALLY TRULY the case...
If this experience (post Lehman), has taught us NOTHING except for the fact that PRIVATE DEBTS can be monetized on some FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET, then 'printed away'...
Well - there is an END GAME to that as well...
It's the EXACT SAME end game as the other scenario... In this scenario, the PRICE for everything gets so hyperinflated, that people can no AFFORD the basic necessities...
SO THEY STARVE JUST THE SAME, and they RIOT JUST THE SAME...
Until the balance is restored...
@DL
Read my last comment...
YES, it just dropped 57%... What happened? The failed bets of a few private banks just got put on a SOVERIGN balance sheet...
It has YET to be taxed out of the citizens (but that is coming)...
Now that all debts are soverign... Who's next in line to bail out?
Mars?
Pluto?
@DL
I'm not going to argue about it anymore...
Either you "see" what's coming (and be prepared for it), or you don't...
Frankly, it won't be very much FUN for me to be able to say I'm right in the end...
There won't be many "cocktail parties" around to toast my success...
Poor old NOAH, I doubt, was having much fun when the flood waters were rising and all the "grasshoppers" who'd laughed at him (and his olive oil jugs") while he was hammering the planks of his boat, were now hammering on the side of it to let them in...
No olive oil for DL. He can eat his stock certificates.
But of course, none of that stuff REALLY happens...
The world will, UNDOUBTEDLY go forward in an ever upwardly spiraling binge of consumption...
Ask yourself something...
There are 6 billion people in the world right now...
But basically there is a ratio of 5 slaves to one "economically viable" person...
In order to maintain the delicate margin of growth, those 6 billion have to be turned into CONSUMERS...
Are there resources on the planet to feed (and provide water for) 30 billion humans...
Enough coal, & oil to for 6 billion iPhones (because there sure isn't enough sunlight or lithium for batteries)...
If you think so... Then AAPL is a BUY right here...
yeah, cv, over at zero hedge, harrywanger commented you should buy aapl now and see it go to 400
CV @ 4:20
The big question is:
WHEN
WHEN
WHEN
@ DL
when?
when most people aren't ready
The Bond Report 4.15.10
Another solid day across the board in the fixed income universe. HY outperformed IG and TIPS > vanilla Ts. Interesting to see a steady flow of money into bonds with the equity market flying so high.... JNK is just about to complete a "double top".... hmm....
Corpies: LQD 0.17%; AGG 0.18%; JNK 0.53%; HYG 0.27%;
Govies: TLT 0.11%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.29%
We did nothing. So far this week, our not trading has correlated with our not losing any money... we are clearly geniuses at Schadenfreude Asset Mgmt. "If you don't know what to do, do nothing.."
We had an interesting talk today via intraoffice e-mail. My partners don't want to accept any new medicare patients. Guess we'll take a vote on it at the next partners'meeting. I will try to remember to tell you bubbas/bubbettes how the vote came out.
@LB:
I, too, was a genius once. Then I got married and found out otherwise....
@72bat
Instead, CV thinks you should plant 400 APPLE 'seedlings' right now, and have an orchard ready to go...
BAT
I forgot to mention (above), a bunch of other things...
If you REALLY want to be prepared you have to think INFRASTRUCTURE...
I mean, let's say you even have stored water supplies... Eventually, you're going to run out...
If you have a farm (like I do - with an underground well), then you're OK... But think about your well (as well)...
I have an ELECTRIC PUMP to draw the water out (but what if there are disruptions to power)?
I have to have the 'tools' necessary to draw water manually if I have to...
Another way is to have SOLAR PANELS to run a 'minimum' of electrical power... I have about 300-400 pounds of meat, fish, poultry sealed and frozen in refrigerators at any given time...
But what happens if the POWER gets shut off?
You need about 400 watts of continuous power to generate each freezer (or a larger locker space, if you choose to build & insulate one)... Otherwise, everything you've prepared would ROT within days...
What if some volcano (like Krakatoa) erupts and blots out the sun (so SOLAR panels have very diminished utility)... You could survive if you had WIND generators... But for BOTH you need adequate "battery storage"...
You could use nat gas powered generators, but you'd need a continuous supply of nat gas (or gasoline - as Nic mentioned before) to make those run...
In any case, they're ALL "short term" band-aids...
Meaning... If TSHTF (really), you'd better plan along a 'succession' of dropoff points...
Even I-Man (above)... made a good point "bows & arrows bitches"... Very good point!
I live in DEER country... Hell, if I had to, I could hunt deer all day long with a bow and arrow... I know how to JERK the meat... So in a very short time I'd be able to transition...
I like reading LB's viewpoints... Why? Because he's in mid-town Manhattan but his "instincts" are correct... If TSHTF... LB will be the first one out of Gotham...
Actually LB... I'll HELP you get out of Gotham... There will be NO GASOLINE (and therefore, a lot of abandoned cars)... Find an old school DIESEL one and I'll teach you a recipe on how to make diesel fuel off of discarded oil that you can find in the dumpsters of all the KFC's around town...
I ought to be able to get you enough gas to get about 150 miles out of town before the engine conks out and starts spewing black smoke :-)...
Better than walking anyway! :-)
@72bat
Instead, CV thinks you should plant 400 APPLE 'seedlings' right now, and have an orchard ready to go...
BAT
I forgot to mention (above), a bunch of other things...
If you REALLY want to be prepared you have to think INFRASTRUCTURE...
I mean, let's say you even have stored water supplies... Eventually, you're going to run out...
If you have a farm (like I do - with an underground well), then you're OK... But think about your well (as well)...
I have an ELECTRIC PUMP to draw the water out (but what if there are disruptions to power)?
I have to have the 'tools' necessary to draw water manually if I have to...
Another way is to have SOLAR PANELS to run a 'minimum' of electrical power... I have about 300-400 pounds of meat, fish, poultry sealed and frozen in refrigerators at any given time...
But what happens if the POWER gets shut off?
You need about 400 watts of continuous power to generate each freezer (or a larger locker space, if you choose to build & insulate one)... Otherwise, everything you've prepared would ROT within days...
What if some volcano (like Krakatoa) erupts and blots out the sun (so SOLAR panels have very diminished utility)... You could survive if you had WIND generators... But for BOTH you need adequate "battery storage"...
You could use nat gas powered generators, but you'd need a continuous supply of nat gas (or gasoline - as Nic mentioned before) to make those run...
In any case, they're ALL "short term" band-aids...
Meaning... If TSHTF (really), you'd better plan along a 'succession' of dropoff points...
Even I-Man (above)... made a good point "bows & arrows bitches"... Very good point!
I live in DEER country... Hell, if I had to, I could hunt deer all day long with a bow and arrow... I know how to JERK the meat... So in a very short time I'd be able to transition...
I like reading LB's viewpoints... Why? Because he's in mid-town Manhattan but his "instincts" are correct... If TSHTF... LB will be the first one out of Gotham...
Actually LB... I'll HELP you get out of Gotham... There will be NO GASOLINE (and therefore, a lot of abandoned cars)... Find an old school DIESEL one and I'll teach you a recipe on how to make diesel fuel off of discarded oil that you can find in the dumpsters of all the KFC's around town...
I ought to be able to get you enough gas to get about 150 miles out of town before the engine conks out and starts spewing black smoke :-)...
Better than walking anyway! :-)
RA's DAILY CANDLE WRAP UP
Good stuff CV, I love it when you're worked up like this. Its when you shine.
The money question is what happens when the mobs show up at the farm / Invite 'em in?
Post a Comment