Reprint of APRIL 6th Chart.
Today's open market trading will be DAY 49. Remember also, that the 'correction' in January began in EARNEST on the Tuesday after OPEX WEEK. Today is is an OPEX Friday.
Some say history doesn't repeat itself, but it RHYMES...
A blast from the past.
The P2 "rally" wave (after the Stock Market crash in October, 1929 lasted until April 16th, 1930). So HAPPY 80th Birthday!
Is It April 1930 All Over Again?
That last leg up to the very top in April 1930 took on a similar slow-motion grind like the recent one. From the top in April 1930, investors and traders experienced 27 months of hell as the Dow completely collapsed until it finally hit the bottom in July 1932.
What’s interesting is the DJIA had several failed rallies (+19.3%, +27%, +31%, +39%, and +28%) on its way to falling 86% from that 1930 top.
If the DJIA continues to repeat the 1929-32 sequence of market events, we’re talking about a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 1500 somewhere in 2012.
The first loss of 7729 points on the DJIA from October 2007 to March 2009 will look like an absolute picnic if this final down leg in fact materializes. The good news? From 1929-32 there were several mini bull market moves mixed in with that 86% decline.
But everyone KNOWS that will never happen again, right? And even if it does, everything will be fine and dandy in the world, and you can just sit there all the while in front of your trading platform with a slice of pizza in your hand, and a 2 litre bottle of coke by your side...
I expect to see a lot of George Soros types running around within 27 months from now. Let's all exchange e-mails so we can all buy property together in the Hamptons for when that day arrives!
320 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 320 of 320 Newer› Newest»@LB
Now blend what you just said into the idea of what Nic was talking about at (12:14)...
Lots of DUCKS ON THE POND here traders!
Stay focused!
Damn thee, blogger.
OK - It seems that WE HAVE encountered the 200 comment "time warp"...
I was just taking a chance that everything, THIS TIME, was different...
You know...
- Like how QE forever would make everything different (Dow to 36,000)
- The FED can "print us out of this"
- Bernanke & "Rubin-omics" would save us
WHEN?
WHEN?
WHEN?
Answer: "I don't know"... (but 200 comments DOES appear to be a barrier, AFTER ALL)...
In "blogspeak", mind you... What? Did you think I was talking about the MARKETS?
We are on the low channel line now so are we going to see the dip buyers coming in?
test?
Reuters are reporting SEC told Goldman in advance of the charges. They must have been hedged, how much market cap have they lost today? 10bill?
I count today as 1 and 2's. this could form a big impulse down.... stay tuned, not that any of these posts seem to be coming up.
well, in case these ever show up, since I know that some others here are toying with FXP with me:
http://www.theoptionsinsider.com/unusualactivity/?id=4328
test
test
test
The blogger dog ate my homework again
hmmm, think it's time for a new thread.
in case people missed it above, lot of option action on FXI for others trading FXP.
Sorry about all those TEST posts (I'll go in and delete them later)...
CV 'happened' on that idea as a way to UNLOCK the 200 comment FREEZE OUT mechanism...
I'll explain some other day...
Greek bonds are being annihilated people ...
Greek is toast, we all know it.
Nic,
re: gold
I don't know what people are looking at when they think they could buy gold to "hedge" on a day like today. Gold's been moving in tandem with risk assets for a long time, what charts could possibly lead you to a conclusion that it's a hedge on days like this.
silver down 4% today as well.
@McF
The country of Greece has SPECTACULAR olive trees (and olive oil production)...
So there IS a redemption here... keep in mind!
Olive price will plummet when DRACHMA comes back.
Now let me see....
Greece, Portugal, GOLDIE, and CONSUMER CONFIDENCE.
RELEASE THE HOUNDS !!
Yes SHINY STUFF clearly = FXI = JNK = SPY = AUD.
In the RISK BASKET of ONE TRADE.
Epic day.
Everyone shorting the crap out of J Paulson Longs:
GGBs
Gold
C
Who knew life could be this amusing?
Next:
GE Accounting Issues?
KAREN will be shocked by this one, as I was... NOT.
The News Flow has shifted.
@Nic
Well, on a PRINT basis...
That STOP LOSS on Euro (I think it was 134.50 - by the Citi analyst)... Just got BLOWN...
... and to THAT... CV says to BOTH Citi & GS analysts (with regards to the Euro)...
BLOW ME
ALL WS criminality. ALL THE TIME.
Got Popcorn?
Watch out for a squeeze to SPX 1204...
@LB
What was it the other day "The great LB" was saying about "hand signals"? :-)
F*CK OFF, you lot. JAMIE has PPT duty today.
JAMIE ? JAMIE ?
1204 the morning bump? Likely...
Ha! Market going GREEN today? Wouldn't that be something?
@LB
Chinese PIG farmers have "paper copper" in their basements...
CV has "olive oil" in his basement...
Only because it TASTES better on arugula, mind you...
CNBC is really whipping this thing into a frenzy today.
What's the worst case? GS settles out of court, and pays a $50M fine.
Lloyd probably spends more than that on the annual Christmas party.
You've got to be kidding me?
close= 1211.67
minor fibo .02058= 1186.73
low for today= 1186.77
1204 is possible...
I'm going to put up a chart...
My theory... If it can't get through 1195, it ISN'T getting to 1204... (thru 1195 - and 1204 IS, IN FACT, likely)...
We'll see...
I prefer corn oil over olive oil, anyway.
The corn oil stays liquid when stored in the refrigerator.
DL
Did the CNBC anchors jump out of the windows yet?
"Lloyd probably spends more than that on the annual Christmas party."
Now I see we should have spent it on the SEC bribes.
Where's Viniar? VINIAR?
DL,
Thought you used MOLTEN GOLD for your cooking.
"I love GOLD, Mister BOND..."
@DL
Today... Lloyd is probably spending $50M on a CDS on Pellegrini's LIFE...
He hopes to cash in (are the latest reports)...
I'm already in Witness Protection out in your BARN, CV.
@LB
Oh! I see you're a student of ROMAN ANTIQUITY!
53 BC: The Roman general and consul Marcus Licinius Crassus was reported as having been put to death by the Parthians after losing the battle of Carrhae, by being forced to drink a goblet of molten gold, symbolic of his great wealth. A much more likely scenario is that in which, following his death, the Parthian executioner(s) poured said 'molten gold' into his mouth as a message/symbol representing the perils of his 'great thirst for wealth.'[9]
Either way...
OUCH... THAT'S GOTTA HURT!
@McHappy @ahab
All you SPARTACUS watchers could probably confirm these tales...
Spartacus & Crassus were, after all, enemies...
CV @ 2:16
In the unlikely event that Cuomo were to file criminal charges in this case, all of the investment banks in NY would make it their mission in life to see that Cuomo never got elected (to any office) again.
Hey...
WTF does CV know?
I only understand Rom/Italian history since "Leo (the boy from Pisa)" came on the scene, RIGHT?
Assuming the IBs are not BROKEN UP and the CEOs incarcerated....
DIE, LLOYD. DIE like a dirty street dog...
Does the boy from Pisa know the girl from Ipanema?
DA VINCI, WHERE IS MY EFFING HELICOPTER?
Buffett’s Goldman Warrants Drop by Almost $1 Billion on Lawsuit
: )
Don't look back, lest you be turned into a PILLAR OF SALT :-)
@karen
"Sainthood" just ain't what it USED to be...
Spike Lee says...
I just got me an idea for a new movie...
"Boys in the Saint HOOD"
A Spike Lee joint
KAREN @ 2.30.
LOL !!
Surprised Timmy didn't sell C ahead of this release.
Talk about a CONFLICT OF INTEREST, the government's stake in C !! ufb.. the chart does show distribution..
Everything is so interconnected, and intertwined....
Starting some TBT, will add into the close. There is a significant chance that the world will not end over the weekend so we have to hedge.
@DL
Now is not the time... But DUDE... I'm going to PUMMEL you (in due time) on this statement...
"The corn oil stays liquid when stored in the refrigerator."
Ever curious why? (that's the TEASE)
You are in a VISCOUS mood today.
Of course no-one in their right mind would store OLIVE OIL in the refrigerator....
DL, why do you always have to have access to liquid corn oil..?
IStar Financial Bonds Surging as Sugarman Faces Loan Repayments
By Pierre Paulden and Kate Haywood
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- IStar Financial Inc. securities that surged to the highest levels in almost two years may fall as the commercial real estate financing company renegotiates terms on $3.9 billion of loans maturing through 2011, according to debt strategists.
Matt Taibbi fingers are bleeding from all of the typing right about now.
IStar Financial Bonds Surging as Sugarman Faces Loan Repayments
i give up:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aow20XrW_uRg&pos=7
what's all this talk about oiling up corn holes. You guys are strange.
On GS:
"Everything we're dealing with happened a couple of years ago," said Dave Lutz, managing director of trading for Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore. "Ultimately, once this noise has washed out, it's going to translate into one heck of a buying opportunity."
Slope of hope is starting. However, I still like CV's observation (correction, back up, P3) and A part of NY's (currently in a of Z). Hopefully we are down for a few weeks.
mcHAPPY is out of oil for good.
Lets just leave it at that.
DL has been asking for a visit to the proctologist for some time.
even I still wonder if we visit the mid 1200's before we really go down. At this point though, I'm done for the day and I'm cutting out early to mow the lawn.
all have a great day/weekend.
@LB
As always... One has to "roll with the VISCOSITY
Verse One: Dres
I skipped the line, I paid my dime
I hung my coat, and now it's time
To move to the forefront take my rounds
Say peace and give a pound have a drink, get down
I'm on the floor, besides the door
The sound is rich, and I ain't poor
I'm looking for Susie or Wendy or Judy
But look at her [repeat 3X] "Who me?"
Yes, you sweetie, although it's hard to see thee
I see your silhouette and what I see has got me needy
I need you for a second of your time
But then I reckon that a second is too short let me try
"You're slammin!"
But anyway, I'd like to say
I'm Dres of the Black Sheep givin you play
Step out in the light, come show off yourself
Yo, I'm sorry, I thought you were someone else.
Chorus: Dres, Strobelite Hoe
I gotta go, I gotta go, I gotta go "Don't go" [repeat line 3X]
Just don't know "Why?" Hon, I just don't know
I gotta go, I gotta go, I gotta go "Don't go" [repeat line 3X]
See something ain't right "Why?" It's the strobelite
Insert - Mista Lawnge, Dres, Strobelite Hoe
[Mista Lawnge]
Van Damne, Oh man, now you look out
I can not dig it, I can not dig it
No, yo Black, I can not dig it
[Dres, Strobelite Hoe]
Listen Hon, I mean aaaaaah
It's nice looking at you, I just have to go
My man is right over there "Where you going?"
I have to go "Huhhhhh?"
[to his 'man' who doesn't exist] I'm on my way Black, I'm on my way
"Don't you have a number or something?"
Listen it's ahhhhhhh, 765-4321
"What area code is that?"
One, nine-hundred
Verse Two: Dres
Listen here dear, step to the rear
Find yourself a seat, buy yourself a beer
Eat some pretzels, go play some videos
Thank you for your time honey, but hoe, I gotta go
I think I lost my coat, and plus I'm double parked
I thought you was my girl, see I can't see in the dark
Anyway I'm out, out is where I be
I've got to step, "With the viscosity"
When you see a honey by the strobelite
Black I hope you got good sight
For honey that you see, like a Shakespeare soliloquy
May or may not be, all that
In fact, quite wacked
With the girl that makes you stop tracks
But neither here nor there fear
Unless, of course, you don't care
Listen baby girl, let me say it slow
I-have-to-go
Not to dis, but lets disperse
Yo, I'll see you later, unless I see you first
Chorus
Outro: Dres
Can't swing tonight, so ahhhhhhh
Honey take a hike, go fly a kite
And I don't mean to be impolite
But yo, I'm outta here aight
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_JtkSmw808
I paid my dime...
Cause I'm the BLACK SHEEP
gaps closed-resume the uptrend
There is never just one cockroach:
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/s-e-c-inquiry-may-widen-khuzami-hints/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook
As a matter of fact...
THAT'S THE OFFICIAL THEME SONG TO P2 - STROBELIGHT HONEY (Black Sheep)
"Thank you for your time honey - but "YO I GOTTA GO"
@anon
Too easy...
HOW about the WEEKLY GAP on a MAJOR INDEX that was CLOSED this week (as CV mentioned 3 days ago)...
Weekly gap between 1209-1213 on SPX...
Note: I'm not saying P2 is over right now...
But I'd said earlier this week...
It's not a matter of LEVELS at this point... It's a matter of TIME...
Let's put it another way...
(and this goes out as a QUESTION to you DL)...
Was TODAY the "low move" on GS?
IOW...
What are the actual odds that a move like what we saw today on GS was a "temporary bottom"
Or - IOW
ONE DAY?????????????
Yeah - I suppose it just "bottomed today" and it's on it's way to $250... Right? Right?
All I know is that if I were drawing "price channels" off the 10/07 "highs" on GS...
...and drawing parallel lines (from the April 16th, 2006 highs...
I might NOT BE a very confident buyer...
But that's just me...
1 min to go. I figure we either:
a) ramp like every Fri (after all, Monday is a sure thing still, right Brian....Brian?)
b) flutter about btw 1195 and 1190
c) yield to 1182's siren song
obviously a lot of wiggle room between those three scenarios -- ha! trade on that top secret proprietary info!. [ps - I'm holding pat in my position)
My large TLT holding tickling 90.
@Tyler
LOL---
Right now I wouldn't even hazard a guess...
But --- 1194 (where we are right now) has some significance on a WEEKLY chart... (as Amen will point out shortly)...
If one is inclined to do real trading as opposed to hypothetical or imaginary trading...
I actually hope for (b) -- I don't want to travel too far, too fast (c), and I will not appreciate (a) (both $figuratively and literally)
mwuahahaha ... why didn't I see this on CNBS:
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/who-is-sylvain-raynes-and-how-did-he.html
Jamie: Hello?
Lloyd: It's Lloyd.
Jamie: It's not time yet.
Lloyd: We still haven't got enough shorts?
Jamie: Nope.
Lloyd: I want their pain to last a lifetime.
Jamie: You mean like your feeling now?
Lloyd: F-U
Jamie: Aw come on. You can't take a joke?
Lloyd: Yeah yeah. F-U anyway.
Ramp it like it's HOT.
Ramp it like it's HOT...
Go Manny, wit dat assload of TLT..!
CV
Nope The SPX daily 3lb rev was 1196.48. the SPX weekly 3lb mid is 1177.14 and rev is 1150.90. It's starting to look like there might not even be a daily reversal.
Nic:
"I'll keep it shallow in deference to Mr. Cramer."
Fecking BRILLIANT... add him to a TAG TEAM with Janet TAVAKOLI.
Anyone think Khuzami can be NY AG after Cuomo?
Great WORK that man.
Ra:
Hilarious.
You like being a fly on the BANKSTER wall too eh?
Added to TBT, ERX next.
@Nic
"call me Mr. RAIDER, call me Mr. "Wrong", call me 'insane'...
Cause I'm "Mr. SylVAIN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvgUdrzGNys
I go off for a few hours on a hike, walk in the door, and what do I see? Goldman indicted! Now if you guys can't keep the recovery going in the TBTF banks any better than that while the big dog is away, I am going to have to get a sitter for Lefty and, I suppose, everyone else. Let me make a few phone calls and see if I can straighten this out. Next time just call my cell...
LB
...and then they went to commercial before more damage could be done.
Just civil charges, Bruce. We can only hope for criminal indictments and not just the mid-level VP schleprock scapegoats either. MD and Exec level.
@Amen (3:46)
DAILY??? Kool Moe Dee...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBNIfdHQ8v8
CV @ 2:45
I don't know; corn oil has a lower phase transition temperature. Lower molecular weight triacylglycerides perhaps?
Luv it LB:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AWktx-tCZg&feature=player_embedded
Sorry Bruce (3:52)
:-(
Too much olive oil makes things slippery... you know?
I've lost all respect for Erin B.. not that I had much but admiration for her looks: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AWktx-tCZg
CV:
It's all right. I got Tim and Ben on a conference call. We can go back to sleep now.
@DL (3:59)
Not really sure...
Because I wrote my paper on that back in 1979...
And my subscription to http://physics.info/viscosity/ expired... CRAP! TWO days ago...
Look at these recent articles from R&R Consulting:
http://creditspectrum.com/about/rr-consulting-in-the-news/
@karen: Here is ZH's take on that. "Polite"?!?! Wow, is she Jim's bitch or what?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-guest-tells-truth-calls-cramer-shallow-yanked-air
He should have just said EAT ME, Cramer.
These people had it coming. Nobody has gone off on CNBC like this since Jon Stewart, wait until SEC digs into the GE Ponzi scheme.
What's that, you thought GE was a REAL company....?
I figure we ... b) flutter about btw 1195 and 1190 ...I actually hope for (b)
Excellent
@Amen @LB
I'm DYING to hear your "wraps" gentlemen...
CV has to tool out to the FARM at the moment (emphasis on the "tool")...
I'll catch back up with everyone later!
CV
Wow, Erin, what a joke she is......
By the way, this is the absolute middle of the wildflower season (tax day) in East Tennessee. There is a variety of light blue phlox that is blooming everywhere in the hardwood forest floor and it smells of lilacs. My wife and I had multiple quarter mile stretches where the floral scent of lilacs was amazing. You get that every year, but only for a few days
Since when is anyone on CNBC "polite" to any guest that doesn't toe the party line? What a farce.
Betty got tough with Uncle Warren today.... what is happening?
Betty Liu Digs Deep on Uncle Warren's Goldy Warrants!
Bruce. Did you go to Vandy?
I just watched it twice...
Hilarious!
It's a PROPAGANDA channel. Izvestia...
I especialy love how Raynes had to repeat this comment twice just be certain that everyone heard him.
"We don't have time to go into details, I want to remain shallow in deference to Mr. Cramer."
So will this be the Monday be the end of momo monday.... like the end of crude thursday?
The Bond Report 4.16.10
A good Olde Fashion Flyte to Quality day today, after the SEC chose OpEx day to release the details of a cozy little triangulation between Goldman Sachs, John Paulson and persons to be named later.
BUCKY was strong today and so was the Treasury complex as credit inwestors fled HY for the safety of IG and Govies. The 2y dropped below the psychologically important 1.00% yield for the first time in weeks., and the curve remained steep with 2s10s at about 282 bps.
Corpies: LQD 0.24%; AGG 0.15%; JNK -0.82%; HYG -0.81%;
Govies: TLT 0.73%; IEI 0.40%; TIP 0.23%
We hedged our long bond exposure toward the end of the day, our trading desk anticipating that the World As We Know It will not end, and that they will sell govies on Monday. If the World Does End over the weekend, we are going to CV's for supplies of arugula and olive oil.
Don't forget that both Erin Burnett & Cramer worked FOR Goldman in the past...
I'm sure that point isn't LOST on anyone...
Erin prefers the corn oil.
One more MOMO MONDAY. For JOHNNY and GREECE.
Après celà , le déluge...
No Vandy here Lefty. I did spend some time in 4 SEC schools. Finished at 3.
Hey, AMAT held up! Time for a beer.
300 posts today, CV. Only half of which referred to Erin Burnett, DL and/or a variety of oily lubricants. We can all be proud.
C,
4:46, I resent that....take it back.
new EWT just came out for any subscribers....and it's a good one.
Amen late with the CANDLE WRAP...
Everything OK Amen?
I had a perfectly lovely afternoon curled up with a copy of the GS annual report, calculating and re-calculating again how much the Banksters-in-chiefs lost in their comp accounts today. They could have bought all the outstanding Greek 3m bills with it yesterday and now its gone. Shame.
Got backed up at work. Always wait until late on friday to call. Argghh!
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