Morning Audibles 4.13.10 - It looks like the road to heaven, but it feels like the road to hell...

Everybody knows the story - It's DAYS away - (or hours -or minutes). Please hang around... Oh Yeah!

SURVIVOR CAPITAL MOTTO

I won't let you down
I will not give you up 
Gotta have some faith in the sound 
It's the one good thing that I've... got 
I won't let you down 
So please don't give me up 
Cause I would really, really love to stick around


OH YEAH!



Heaven knows I was just a young boy 
Didn't know what I wanted to be 
I was every little hungry schoolgirl's pride and joy 
And I guess it was enough for me 
To win the race? A prettier face! 
Brand new clothes and a big fat place 
On your rock and roll TV 
But today the way I play the game is not the same 
No way 
Think I'm gonna get myself happy...  


I think there's something you should know 
I think it's time I told you so 
There's something deep inside of me 
There's someone else I've got to be 
Take back your picture in a frame 
Take back your singing in the rain 
I just hope you understand 
Sometimes the clothes do not make the man...  


All we have to do now 
Is take these lies and make them true somehow 
All we have to see 
Is that I don't belong to you 
And you don't belong to me 
FREEDOM 
You've gotta give for what you take 
FREEDOM 
You've gotta give for what you take  


Heaven knows we sure had some fun boy 
What a kick just a buddy and me 
We had every big shot good-time band on the run boy 
We were living in a fantasy 
We won the race 
Got out of the place 
I went back home got a brand new face For the boys on MTV 
But today the way I play the game has got to change Oh yeah 
Now I'm gonna get myself happy  
I think there's something you should know 
I THINK IT'S TIME I STOPPED THE SHOW 
There's something deep inside of me 
There's someone I forgot to be 
Take back your picture in a frame 
Don't think that I'll be back again 
I just hope you understand 
Sometimes the clothes do not make the man...  


All we have to do now 
Is take these lies and make them true somehow 
All we have to see Is that I don't belong to you 
And you don't belong to me 
FREEDOM 
You've gotta give for what you take 
FREEDOM 
You've gotta give for what you take  


Well it looks like the road to heaven But it feels like the road to hell 
When I knew which side my bread was buttered 
I took the knife as well 
Posing for another picture Everybody's got to sell 
But when you shake your ass 
They notice fast 
And some mistakes were built to last...  


That's what they get...  
I say that's what they get...  
That's what they get for changing your mind...  


And after all this time 


I just hope you understand 
Sometimes the clothes Do not make the man  
I'll hold on to my freedom 


May not be what you want from me 
Just the way it's got to be 
Lose the face now I've got to live...


---
SPECIAL THANKS to Cindy (Crawford), Linda (Evangelista), Naomi (Campbell), Christy (Turlington), and Tatiana (Patitz) for their help in this narrative...


CV

196 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

We know your heart lies with Oprah, CV...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

By the way, I have decided that if we don't like tariffs, then we pass a VAT tax on imported goods only.

...There, problem solved. No, I don't want another Nobel. I just put the damn things in a drawer anyway...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Gotta go I-man, but I read your post the other day pining for an F-250. Er, this I ran across too...

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/109278/worst-made-cars-on-the-road?mod=family-home

By the way, they have reopened the Dragon for all the motorcyclists who think they are invincible...The Smokies had lots of snow and rock slides this year.

call me ahab said...

CV-

I prefer-

"Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down- or hurt you"


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

I don't want anybody to not have the pleasure of being "Rickrolled"

bob said...

It's true

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0qTOkUPlGk

bob said...

Looking at the NSA trade numbers-

On the NSA sheet, Imports compared to feb last year are up 16%. Exports, up 23%. This does not mesh with the headline that the deficit is growing.

Just quick and dirty math, still looking through.

Are they playing with the stats to the downside now?

bob said...

Padron, got my columns mixed up, exports up 16%, imports up 23%.

Been away for too long.

call me ahab said...

bob-

the gal in the miniskirt in your link-

her figure staggers me(-:!!

karen said...

i love to laugh first thing in the morning.. those videos!

karen said...

did i miss a lot after the close yesterday? do i need to revisit last night's thread?

CV said...

@karen

Well, LB's bond report had a nice music video to it :-)

CV said...

I was going to put up some charts to look at, but I felt like looking at Christy Turlington instead...

qqqqtrader said...

Quick trip thru the blogs this morning found this chart

Falling Channel

from dshort

We going to bust up thru the channel or ?

On a seperate note... was Martin Armstrong released yesterday?

CV said...

@qqqq

I'm not sure if Martin Armstrong was released...

I wish they'd RELEASE THE KRACKEN though!

bob said...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/blog/

According to this he was released from 'the hole' not from prison.

karen said...

George Soros Whines: It's A Witch Hunt Out There For Anyone Making Money Right Now!

Pimco shuns greek debt.

CV said...

@karen

If you make money being "long Obanomics" (even though it's a PONZI scheme), you're a hero...

If you're making money on CDS's for the fiscal irresponsibility of a soverign nation. You'll probably be prosecuted...

Got that?

karen said...

TAL earnings report and guidance is complete nonsense.

CV said...

Can't you already see it?

As soon as the S&P hits 1,000

Obama is going to be on the microphone talking about those BAD SHORT SELLERS & SPECULATORS...

The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because SGUF...

Hell, he'll probably get the Attorney General to start investigations if we ever get a 1.5% decline...

karen said...

Greek Headline Manipulation? So where ARE the buyers now..

call me ahab said...

speaking of Obama- crack me up-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwWCkWVU1nI

I-Man said...

LOL Bruce!

Guess they look alot cooler than they're built then... oh well, when I have the kind of dough to drop on a nice truck, I'll spend a little more time on the background check.

Its tough though, I aint buying Govie Motors, Toyota, or Dodge, so whats a dreadneck to do?

Re: The Dragon
The old "Moonshiners Hwy" I think is what my gramps used to call that. My uncle took me for a ride in his 78 Targa that he rebuilt down that highway once... you can really feel the G's.

I didnt even know it was closed...

I cant wait to get back to knoxville. Maybe for a ballgame this fall. We'll grab a pint downtown, and maybe fly Lefty in.

karen said...

Fascinating from Bespoke. Investing in Homebuilders

Especially considering that there is an oversupply of homes that will take years to mop up.

Nic said...

Dealers got involved to get syndication biz in GGB?

Nic said...

Big bid in the auction then bonds get puked in the market a day later, except now they hardly wait an hour. Hmm where have I seen that movie before?

call me ahab said...

well- gotta rickroll out of here-

all have good day(-:!!

I-Man said...

You talking the Greek bond auction?

So how'd that go anyway?

karen said...

"The house that owed $4,195,000 was foreclosed last week – the opening bid was $1.25 million, and no takers. WaMu has about the same amount out on the other house too:"

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2010/04/13/double-down-in-la-jolla/

Nic said...

Greek auction went astonishingly well then it all got hit a short time later, even 1yr.

Bailout deal is just a very small band-aid in a window on the wall behind some glass with a hammer that says "break only in an emergency".

I-Man said...

For cash SPX, watch 1192 and 1189 for bounce levels this morning.

1189 looks like a big one.

If I were swing trading this one, I'd probably be looking to buy that print. (Stopping it out sub 1187)

karen said...

Nic, did you see my link from Kid Dynamite? that bid to cover may have been too good to be true..

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/04/greek-headline-manipulation.html

On the Laguna Beach RE front.. more price reductions.

http://lagunahomes.freedomblogging.com/

karen said...

oops, sorry, nic, just scrolled up and saw posts I hadn't seen before..

CV said...

@karen

"The house that owed $4,195,000 was foreclosed last week – the opening bid was $1.25 million, and no takers. WaMu has about the same amount out on the other house too:"

I'm sure all the comps that are held on the books are 100 cents to the dollar (hell, maybe more if they can figure out a way to do it)...

And they're all "current" (because the owners have been sending in their $1 payments per month)...

Nic said...

I did, thanks Karen :)
I'm a bit slow today, wasted an hour helping remove my neighbours horses from my yard

CV said...

@I-Man

I'm more inclined to think we'll see something like 1171...

This is shaping up very much like in January (where there were a couple of wild zig zag days up and down)...

Could be the same...

1171-1200-1171-1200...rollover

CV said...

@Nic

You should have just tried saying "Frau Blucher" (with the horses)

Nic said...

I have to be nice to my manure providers CV

I-Man said...

Horseshit makes for good watermelons.

CV said...

@I-Man

Makes for good politicians too...

karen said...

I cannot believe SRS is red.. cursing in disgust! but look at vxx and even uup.. hardly much to get excited about, i guess. i must be desperate!

Nic said...

I need to switch to stocks. ABK +600% since Thurs and my fibonacci pattern guy sent out an alert and I ignored it.

Anonymous said...

I've got BAWS like WATERMELONS....

Nic said...

I-man a Swiss bank had a digital option at 1.36 in EURUSD that expired at 15:00 so we can go down now they collected their money (had to be above 1.36 at 14:00GMT)

CV said...

@Nic

You could get on board a little FXP :-)

karen said...

abk is a joke! short interest over 19%.. ufb, but yes, wish i'd played it. lol.

call me ahab said...

hey- do I look like Chuck Norris w/ a few days growth working?

file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Owner/Desktop/image.JPG

I know- I'm such a badass- I get that all the time-

anyway- really do have to roll- all have a most awesome day

CV said...

Gotta go out for about an hour...

Be Back Soon

Mannwich said...

Market......must......never........go.......down...

That about sums up my contribution for the day.

karen said...

ahab! that was a tease.. that file doesn't load.. come on! put it as your icon at least.

karen said...

Nic! this is for you The move in Ambac (ABK) is especially awesome because despite a (Wall Street) "reported profit", apparently in its 10Q it says it could be insolvent within a year.

call me ahab said...

I am running so late-

karen- copy the whole link including the word file-

and open up in a different window or tab-

and brace yourself- your knees may become unsteady-

male model's got nothing on me

karen said...

a good quote from my link above: There used to be something we called the Greenspan put... i.e. the Maestro would find a way to make sure things never got out of hand so buy stocks at will. We need a name for Bernanke - because he makes that put look like child's play. Maybe the Bernanke Forcefield - everything is protected, we are immune and shielded.

karen said...

ahab, i did copy the whole thing.. please check your link.

I-Man said...

Watch SPX 1192.5/1193 for resistance... if price can reclaim that level, we may end up closing today around yesterdays close, 1197.

karen said...

ahab, that is NOT a web address.. btw

Mannwich said...

@karen: That's been my theory for a while now - this is the Greenspan put times 1,000. It's the put to end all puts......

McFearless said...

whats up team, not too much going on today I see.

didn't see anything very interesting trolling around this morning as well.

Three voicemails about buying stocks today. ha!

karen said...

Ben, this is for you: The person had an $1,880.00 monthly mortgage payment on which they'd defaulted, but said person's monthly bank statement showed payments to a tanning salon, nail spa, liquor stores, DirecTV bill with premium charges, and $1,700.00 in retail purchases from The Gap, Old Navy, Home Depot, Sears, etc.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36422316

McFearless said...

Karen,

wow, a great person for a loan reduction right!

that's way to typical sadly enough. I have so many clients that earn well over $250k household income per year that "just can't really save"

global. idiot. bubble.

McFearless said...

Oh and btw, I'll give the benefit of the doubt and say those retail charges were big items at Sears or HD because spending 1,700 at Gap or Old Navy would basically involve buying every item on the shelf, clothes are cheap at both places.

Colin said...

NYtimes response to the "impressive bailout gains" http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/13/business/13sorkin.html?dbk

More fuzzy math and Pollyannish garbage. Favorite quote: But if you can put that aside for a moment [in reference to the 320B FNM/FRE bailout]

karen said...

LOL! abk.. look at it now..

Trendy said...

Gold model switched to netural from bearish today.
Don't get many signals in a month, 2 within a few days is rare.

Nic said...

Karen & Ben did you read this? Seems people are just buying houses (or were allowed to buy houses) that their salaries could not support:
http://ow.ly/1xVyQ

Colin said...

Ah, hadnt realized BR and Cognos covered that piece this morning.

Also, Karen, that must be lots of fun for all three computers trading it...

I-Man said...

@ Ben, Leftback

Either of you checked out Pimpco's PUBAX fund yet?

Looks pretty appealing to me... but I defer to yalls judgement on this one.

I-Man said...

Test?

I-Man said...

Its cool... I fly solo. I'm that fly.

karen said...

Nic, good link.. we knew that! ; )
I-Man, I think everyone is just disgusted, bored, fed-up..
Am I ever gonna get smart and just play the long side of this fiasco? 6x

Nic said...

Citigroup ‘Liquidity Puts’ Draw Scrutiny From Crisis Inquiry: http://ow.ly/1xWOX

Fed's Tarullo - Bank stress tests should be regularized:
http://imarketnews.com/node/11704

I-Man said...

I think folks are just getting too wrapped around a particular outcome. The tape just is. Be like water.

Mannwich said...

This, to me, tells the real story about the so-called "economic recovery". It's just not so with small businesses, the forgotten group amidsts all the bailouts and propping up of assets.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/small-business-index-declines-in-march.html

karen said...

I-Man, I'm for any outcome that make sense! water flows down hill you know.

Mannwich said...

f411 and cognos baiting the bears over at TBP. The tone is starting to get very shrill.

franklin411 Says:

April 13th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@cognos
Don’t let the twits on this board get you down. When I agreed with President Obama on this board that stocks were worth buying, I was called a moron, a shill, and one poster even claimed that I was Lloyd Blankfein!

That was in March 2009, when the DOW was at 6400. Where are those twits now? I dunno…most of them are gone. They’re probably living under a bridge somewhere after losing their shirts shorting America!

Nic said...

Revenge is a dish best eaten cold. Your day will come Manny

I-Man said...

Karen, moments of "sense" seem to be few and far between in this tape.

I'm just following the plays, not calling them.
The coach isnt ready to make sense of the gameplan yet, but I'm sure it will come to light in due time.

In the meantime, you can stand under my umbrella... ella ella.

Mannwich said...

These idiots assume that the bearish are just out shorting the hell out of everything all the time. It's just irritating as hell to hear these massive straw men built up by the other side so they can whack away like morons. I'm not even a trader, but I just want a legitimate, non-fraudulent environment in which to "invest" or earn a decentdegree of return on my money that's in proportion with the amount of risk that I'm taking. Am I naive for wanting that?

AmenRa said...

Manny

You should ask cognos if he/she is back to even since riding the market all the way down. Dollar averaging all the way too.

Mannwich said...

Not going to bother, Amen. He's the kind of phony who only trumpets his victories and never the losses because, according to those types, they always get it right and never lose money. It's a waste of time.

Nic said...

A lot of fund traders use Demark indicators (I don't). Anyway the Demark TD sequential hit red 13 on the daily S&P yesterday (indicates top)... so we might see some more profit taking.

karen said...

somebody should shoot me.. or lend me their pen to stab into my thigh (andy? ben?) srs at 5.41..

I-Man said...

Manny-I,

Dont let those fools get to you. Any of them. I'm sure there are a ton of decent investments out there (finding them, doesnt happen to be my area of expertise, but I'm sure taking a peek at the major holdings of some of the top deep value funds might help... start by looking for companies that are trading for less than their actual cash (ex goodwill and all the other fundie crap.)

You're in the right spot man, looking for what you want. You just need to focus, and not get distracted by DB's like the ones you mentioned.

Mannwich said...

You're right, I-Man, but the problem is the solid company stocks haven't really run up much in this dash for trash. I wonder if such "value" dividend plays will come back in vogue soon enough this year or next though?

DL said...

SRS is bad for your health (financial and mental health).

McFearless said...

@I,

re: unconstrained bond, yep, def. used that fund before. there is some crappy paper in it, but that's basically all bond funds, it's done quite well.

As for cognos, he blurts out every day the same ass backwards "we are always in a fluffy equilibrium of wet dreams" nonsense that got us into this mess.

McFearless said...

karen,

there is a poster at Dan's, newgirlinboston, she's solid wave counter, solid at TA. She had some interesting things to say about the leveraged ETF's the other day. I'll see if I can provide a linke to her comment.

As for SRS, I suppose it's hardest to pull the trigger on the best trades but even down here I'm not sure if I could do that one.

McFearless said...

bottom line: Cognos, it's highly doubtful he/she is who they say they are, nobody with that apparent track record, or that worked with a "top 10 hedge fund" is going to spend so much time posting on a macro blog. I could see a small advisor like myself, a supposed "big-wig" player, not very likely.

72bat said...

after this much (wasted) time, why does anyone even bother to read cognos' comments? much less respond to them?

McFearless said...

@Nic,

12:05 link, yeah that was pretty interesting there. I think part of the reason I have an overall bearish thesis is because of the groundfloor look I've gotten at hundreds of household finances over the last 8 years. In general it's beyond ugly out there.

McFearless said...

@72, I agree, the last time I read one of his comments was when he said one man's debts are anothers savings.

that shows complete ignorance about so many things, so why bother to read anything they have to say if they dont' even really undertand what money is.

karen said...

72bat, i'm with you..

DL said...

McF @ 1:30

No "hot shots" here.

Leftback said...

DL, you are hilarious.

A nice CLAVADISTA d'ORO will shut you up for a week or two.... but with Greece still up in the air, methinks the yellow metal stays bid for a while longer.

LB has been busy. Massive game last night, play-off final for ALL THE MARBLES, we play the undefeated team, are massive underdogs, and.....

McFearless said...

Here are some comments from "newgirl" at Danerics which I thought were interesting:

"I agree that the inverse funds show an extremely extended diminishing curve that seems to approach a downside limit. Every *non leveraged* inverse ETF that I've plugged in shows the same graph - similar to a 1/infinity curve (see my other posts). To those who think it's a foolish or pointless exercise, I'm curious why you feel that way. Examining inverse structures is a perfectly acceptable method for cross-checking observations. The idea is that a wave structure in one direction should map an inverse wave relationship in the other direction. So far, the waves have been matching up quite well. If this rally continues to show diminishing upside potential as corrective waves break into more and more smaller corrective waves approaching an upside limit, it would further strengthen this premise. Someone else posted a polynomial trendline, and I think the concepts are related."

"If you're holding a short ETF position, divide one by infinity. That's your price target in interest adjusted dollars.
If you're holding a long position, your price target in those same dollars is (1+1/n)^n."

http://www.mathsisfun.com/calculus/limits-infinity.html

I-Man said...

We're all hot shots in our own minds, hopefully.

Leftback said...

We win. LB hoists the SILVERWARE...!!!

Anonymous said...

Lurker says:

SRS' fall is being driven not by strength in IYR.

Instead, SRS' fall is being driven by brilliant investors piling into DRN (3X real estate bull etf), up 7% today.

The inverse of DRN is DRV (3x bear real estate). It is getting killed.

IMHO, IYR's fundamentals do not matter.

What matters is whether the crowd is betting on UP or DOWN for the day. Since the UP crowd has been winning for weeks now, it has emboldened the DOWN crowd. Which of course emboldens the UP crowd to show with more cash. And the cycle repeats.

The roller coaster continues to ratchet upwards. The riders continue to get butterflies in their stomachs.

Leftback said...

Eventually after inwestors have hauled it all the way upstairs, the TRASH COMPLEX is going to take the ELEVATOR or maybe the TRASH CHUTE !

I-Man said...

Nice analysis there, Lurker!
On the money.

McFearless said...

Agreed lurker, fundamentals don't move these trains.....social mood baby

Leftback said...

Beware the leveraged beasts. LB TRADES 'em, but he doesn't HOLD 'em. If we don't make money, we FOLD 'em.

CV said...

@karen

"I'm for any outcome that make sense! water flows down hill you know"...

That's not a necessarily true depending on what laws of fluid dynamics apply...

Just saying... :-)

I can show you several ways to make water flow uphill...

karen said...

thanks ben and anon/lurker @ 2:05. interesting viewpoints.. esp in light of bespokes evaluation of xhb..

DL said...

Karen @ 2:10

I implore you, I beseech you to open a margin account or a futures account so that you can better short the market.

karen said...

of course, CV! don't aggravate me.. you know what i meant! i'm rather skilled at siphoning, btw.

Lord Blankfiend said...

"I can show you several ways to make water flow uphill..."

With a PUMP, for example? We have one on loan, from the FED.

Leftback said...

Siphoning, Karen?

How does that work...?

DL said...

"I'm rather skilled at siphoning"

Whaaaaaat????

CV said...

@McF

"If you're holding a short ETF position, divide one by infinity."

WHATEVER YOU DO... DON'T DIVIDE BY ZERO or you'll blow a hole in the universe!

CV said...

Siphoning will be a great skill to have in the depths of P3... :-)

Leftback said...

"WHATEVER YOU DO... DON'T DIVIDE BY ZERO or you'll blow a hole in the universe!"

TOO LATE, already happened at CERN. Only a matter of time before it swallows up Greece....

karen said...

Just went to the kitchen to grab some carrots.. organic, of course.

Anonymous said...

Lurker says:

Long-term investors are not selling: Long term investors (holding mostly long positions) are sitting pretty. Their portfolios have been rising for months now. They do not sell.

Short traders betting against wildly optimistic valuations are trying to get ahead of selling by long-term investors. But as we know, they are not selling.

SO - if the long term investors are not selling. And the shorts are trying to short - what is a market maker to do? Force the short to cover. Result: a continuous meltup.

The only thing I can see that stops the meltup is something that causes the long term holders to sell their positions.

I-Man said...

You cant card yourself... but keep 'em coming.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think it is a Mr. Scott market.

Anytime Captain Kirk needed a little more speed, old Scotty managed to get warp 9 or 10 out of those old rustbucket warp drives. Never failed.

Who knew old Lloyd was really James T. Kirk?

CV said...

@karen

The "magic" of those California homes!

In West Virginia, we have to go all the way outside to the GARDEN to grab some carrots...

No WONDER those houses are so pricey :-)

McFearless said...

Lurker,

Long term investors sitting pretty? People that don't sell? I don't agree with that at all, a decade of losses more like it, 12 months of rally in an attempt to break-even isn't the same thing.


From CTC:

Financial Values can Disappear:

People seem to take for granted that financial values can be created endlessly seemingly out of nowhere and pile up to the moon. turn the direction around and mention that financial values can disappear into nowhere, and they insist that it is not possible.

Anonymous said...

Lurker says:

I tend to agree with McFearless@2:09pm - Social mood is critical.

Why sell is all the talking heads keep pumping?

Last winter, we had the President continuously saying "The worst financial crisis since the great depression."

Today, we have the exact opposite - continuous pumping of the economy.

How does this play out? Given the depth of losses we sustained and everyone's desire to recover from them, I think equities do not correct until an external event changes the social mood.

IMHO, the election of Brown in Mass. was such an event - it directly led to the fall in equities.

McFearless said...

You can't hold inverse etf's with no volatility like this, and in case peeps missed it:

http://beforeitsnews.com/news/32433/Signs_of_a_top_--_reverse_split_for_9_ProShares_ETFs.html

Tyler said...

I fail to see how money flows into one 3x swap based etf is in anyway affecting performance of the 2x swap based etf.

karen said...

ben, i had not seen that rev split news.

McFearless said...

Lurker,

far too much proof that reveals exogenous events do not alter the primary trend (social mood)

There does not need to be an event for a serious correction to occur, all that needs to happen is for social mood to change, and leading studies are showing this happens for endogenous reasons, where the limbic system basically "hi-jacks" your brain. It's the same thing that happens when we elect leaders or get into a fight.

Anonymous said...

Lurker says:

@McFearless: IMHO, long term investors actually have a mental window that extends back only to their last serious loss. From the depths of Mar-09, they are doing very well if they held on.

I know quite a few knuckleheads who are thrilled with their investments in retailers, banks, and airlines. They are confident the economy is roaring back. They are buying the dips and ignoring the fundamentals.

DL said...

I believe we have a contrary viewpoint @ 2:38.

McFearless said...

Lurker,

btw, make a handle and join the party.

DL said...

Yeah, like anonymous-lurker478.9

McFearless said...

@Lurker,

Sure, I don't really disagree with any of that 2:40, but I don't think it's accurate to say long term buy and hold investors are doing well, and the fact that they are still doing this after two 50% drops within a decade reveals much about the social mood and at which degree we are dealing with.

here is something funny though, if they are ignoring the fundamentals and buying the dips, aren't they acting in a "technical" way?

As for being thrilled with banks, sure, if you bought at the bottom, highly doubtful, but as I recall, BAC was at 50+ not long ago. Those people are knuckleheads...and to the extreme.

McFearless said...

Karen,

re: ETF splits.

I never traded FAZ but they did a reverse split with that vampire as well right?

I think somebody here mentioned over a month ago this was probably coming....here we are.

Leftback said...

"old Scotty managed to get warp 9 or 10 out of those old rustbucket warp drives. Never failed."

Aye Captain, but ye ken the engines will na' taik it...

karen said...

ben, i think faz did reverse once.. wasn't i trading it in the two's at some point? haven't done my taxes yet.. i'll be quite "refreshed" in the next two days.

Leftback said...

Social Mood is critical. Right now it is poor in many places (areas of high unemployment) and good in others (areas of day trading Johnnys making money on turds like AIG and ABK).

When the market turns down again, especially if we get a delightful "slow bleeder" rather than a dump and squeeze, housing double-dips and unemployment stays flat or rises as states and cities cut services, then the overall social mood is going to turn ugly.

karen said...

Wasn't Mish ranting about this the other day? I didn't read it but I don't think his explanation matches this one:

http://www.oilprice.com/article-outstanding-loans-in-us-commercial-banks-jump-by-420-billion-in-one-week-272.html

DL said...

I propose a poll:

Which do we like better, the (now defunct) "pink piggy", or the donkey?

karen said...

i vote for the cute *ss.

McFearless said...

@LB,

I've tried very hard to document and observe social mood the last two years, I've even gone so far as to get into deep socionomic study of music and lyrics, what's strange is that social mood is in fact quite dark when you speak with people, but more often than not I'm finding these very same people will still have an optimistic outlook on stocks as long as those squiggles move from lower left to upper right. Despite what they "know" something still grips them to buy.

last week I had a client from AZN here, less than a month ago they herded 500 workers into the cafe there and fired them all. That "event" did not cause this particular client to alter his bullish outlook on equities however.

McFearless said...

+1 piggy

DL said...

McF @ 2:58

AstraZeneca?

Sales? Production? R&D?

Nic said...

+1 ass

DL said...

never mind, I found it.

http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2010/03/01/daily22.html

Leftback said...

I suppose they are optimistic when they go to Vegas too.
What happens on Wall Street, stays on Wall St.?

St Vincent's Hospital in NYC is closing. 3500 jobs gone.
That is a REAL social cost far greater than the loss of LEHMAN.

I-Man said...

I like the donkey...

I actually plan on having a donkey one day. I think they're pretty cool, and can pull a plow.

karen said...

Sarah Palin has earned 12 million in 9 months...

Leftback said...

Well it's 3-1, with DL and CV undecided or abstaining.

The ladies really seem to like LB's ... donkey. So we will run with the Cool Mule for now, we can always bring the piggy back when interest rates or US savings are under discussion!

I-Man said...

I and I aint no lady.

DL said...

LB @ 3:10

I'm not going to take a position on your *ss (one way or another).

spokesperson for CV said...

In a P3, a donkey would come in handy.

karen said...

JPM before the open tomorrow..

CV said...

@LB

How about a "mythological" half piggy/ half donkey...

Then you could REALLY say you were putting in a "half-assed" effort into your trading...

AmenRa said...

Whoa!! Who just turned on the algos?

72bat said...

@ karen
believe it was denninger, rather than mish, who was wondering yesterday why this sudden jump and where the funds had gone.
this a.m. read (don't remember where) the speculation that it was backdoor funding of the IMF's new $400 (500?) billion funding program

I-Man said...

I think someone just got their stops blown...

I still think we close around 1197 though.

I-Man said...

@ Bat

Arent "we" the IMF anyways?

Leftback said...

Life in New York, part 356:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/04/that_drunk_female_lawyer.html?f=most-commented-intel-7d5

CV said...

@I-Man

Only 100 S&P points away from Wangers "magic number"...

karen said...

yes, bat, you are right! i'm always getting them mixed up! sorry!

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2187-What-The-Hell-Outstanding-Credit.html

Saint Jamie said...

An ACTUAL STUDENT PROTEST against my sanctified self.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601108&sid=aa3Tj8.Bva3Y

ARREST them immediately! Don't they know who I am?

CV said...

How SANCTIFIED do you feel now Jamie?

Huh! Good God!

CV said...

Even todays volume is weak...

It started out STRONG on the selling... Then, as buying took over, volume weakened considerably...

karen said...

more ambac:

By Matt Phillips

Zip. Zilch. Nada. Zero. Nought. Nil. Gefrierpunkt. 零. Nothing.

That’s the value of Ambac common stock, write J.P. Morgan analysts in a note Tuesday:

We have asserted for some time that [Ambac] equity has no value, and our position following 4Q results and the release of its 10-K affirms our thesis. In the 10-K, ABK stated that although it will have sufficient liquidity to pay debt at the HoldCo through 2Q11, it may decide prior to 3Q10 to not pay interest on its debt. This would cause a default on the HoldCo debt, and thus likely lead to a complete loss for all shareholders. We believe any investment in ABK shares at this time is highly speculative, although we still believe a short in ABK equity will generate attractive long-term returns. Basically, we feel the near-term volatility may not be worth the eventual long-term pay-off from a short.

Put simply. Have fun playing with this thing. And good luck finding a greater fool to pawn it off on. But don’t call it investing, this is out-and-out gambling.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/04/13/the-number-at-noon-0/

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/04/13/ambac-stock-which-funds-caught-this-falling-knife/

CV said...

@karen

Your GS hit 180 on the nose...

CV said...

Hard to believe this is an opex week...

karen said...

cv, gs has 3 successive lower highs from fri: 181, 180.384. 180 (today) and no closes over 180 yet.. I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.. in the meantime, i'll just twist in the wind. : )

Nic said...

Is that an inverse H&S on GS?

I-Man said...

I think GS is going to make another run at 203 before it breaks down.

Nic said...

Haha

CV said...

@karen

Our resident "carrot siphoning twist in the wind-er"...

BTW - Those shoes are my favorites

karen said...

adx and cmf on GS offer negative divergene.. altho i realize the uptrend is quite intact. adx curled over last week.. i've heard it's the curl that counts..

I-Man said...

I have issues with divergence.

CV said...

FXI looks about ready to roll-over

3P&ADH (60 min. candle chart of '10)

CV said...

@I-Man (4:04)

Why?

karen said...

Thank you, CV! I wore them last night! I have them in a deep garnet/red, too.. can't remember if i posted those..for the sequin dress of course. And here i thot you liked my spanish dancer (red satin with black cord applique) heels the best. Once my taxes are done, I will get back to updating my foot adornments.

McFearless said...

didn't read all the post so apols but that KD thing was nothing, it's an accounting rule change, that money wasn't leant out I don't think.

@DL, Yep, AstraZeneca, my understanding it was mainly R&D, they did salespeople cuts in 05/06 as many were "abusing" their Amex card privelage at the time, among other things.

I-Man said...

It just messes with my trading.

I tend to see things more clearly when I stick to volume and the 55 EMA for technical indicators.

I used to have the full stoch, RSI, and MACD on my charts, but now I just roll simple.

Its more of a positional bias issue than an indicator issue for me. Thats all. Its not the indicator itself that I have issues with, its how I tended to use them. I was using them in an unproductive way I think.

karen said...

Ben, exactly.. and accounting rule change.

"The jump was caused by "Financial Accounting Statements No. 166". This new set of rules deals with the way U.S. banks must handle off-balance-sheet vehicles (OBSVs).

This is an important happening for a banking system that's just starting to recover from the financial strains of late 2008 and early 2009. Remember, these newly-acquired assets are the ones formerly considered too risky to carry on the main balance sheet.

Now the high-risk loans are back on the books, whether banks like it or not. We'll see just how risky they turn out to be. If they do go bad, it will add considerable stress to the now-whole balance sheets of America's largest banks."

http://www.oilprice.com/article-outstanding-loans-in-us-commercial-banks-jump-by-420-billion-in-one-week-272.html

Lord John said...

I-Man,
Nice call re. 1197 earlier today!

karen said...

I-Man.. yes, it does mess with one's head! got your 1197, too!

McFearless said...

Oh yeah, just saw that above, nice call I-man!

McFearless said...

karen,

the accounting rule change just seems to be another indicator of social mood, had to have taken confidence to feel now was an ok enough time to do that....

I feel stupid for not having seen that we didnt' reach a sentiment extreme before....

I-Man said...

Thanks yall...

All praises to JAH.

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 4.13.10

A decent day across the board in fixed income. Corporates and Treasuries all fared well as yields declined a day before the CPI number tomorrow morning.

Corpies: LQD 0.36%; AGG 0.16%; JNK 0.33%; HYG 0.27%;
Govies: TLT 0.32%; IEI 0.11%; TIP 0.09%

An ill-advised bit of hedging was terminated this morning. We were probably guilty of having fallen in love with a trade that had worked out twice, and then put it on again even though the rationale was weak. A bit of toolish trading, and a warning that shorting the long end may not work very well if we reach an equity top, although we continue to like the idea of shorting into auction weeks, at least until the dam breaks in the Teflon Equity markets. So for now at least we are sitting net long Ts and making money. Risks are a hot CPI or a very low claims number.

Nic said...

Good call I-Man

Leftback said...

Goodnight all, hope you enjoyed my donkey.

McFearless said...

Risk On???

http://www.google.com/finance?q=intc

McFearless said...

LB,

The way that donkey is looking back at me is a bit risque', like a Maxim spread or something....

Leftback said...

McF:

She knows that you are an ass man.

Leftback said...

Anyone got views on BUCKY?

AmenRa said...

There are daily and weekly 3LB reversals (up) on GOOG. Figures this would happen right before earnings.

AmenRa said...

LB

Bucky tested the 50% retrace twice and failed. If the week closes below 80.44 there will be a weekly 3LB reversal (down). Bucky isn't feeling well.

Nic said...

Agree with Amen-Ra but it looks like a correction, nothing terminal.

Nic said...

Maturity Wall Shrinks $196 Billion in 15 Months: Credit Markets:
http://ow.ly/1y4Z5

karen said...

Nic, the new thread is up.. fyi.

Nic said...

The FDIC Mostly Worries About Risks Taken By Big Banks?
http://ow.ly/1y5bY

Nic said...

Citigroup (NYSE: C) to Undergo Major Restructuring, Reduce Assets
http://ow.ly/1y5dW

Nic said...

Ambac lol
http://ow.ly/1y5rj

McFearless said...

I think the dollar will correct 1-2/3 of the move up from the 74ish lows. Best count I could offer but I'm counting five up from the lows. Andy's dollar charts were really good on Sunday.

karen said...

I don't know Ben.. if you look at $usd.. it's a different picture.. 50 dma has held since december and been a buying opp..

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