Morning Audibles 3.30.10 - P2, The Run of Forrest Gump

On just about every financial blog I read, the constant topic seems to be, "How long will this bull run continue, seemingly unabated"? I've been known to ponder the same question from time to time. My ponderer is sore. So instead of trying to figure it out on charts or anything (which enough, ahem, "experts", have done already). I thought I'd illustrate what seems to be the path we're following in a metaphorical sense (both in terms of possible duration, and underlying motive for doing so).


Everyone remembers Forrest Gump running across America. Most famously, he ran across America back to back several times over a span of three years to get over the heartbreak of Jenny's leaving him.

Putting aside the symbolism of all his runs, one wonders how realistic his ultramarathon run was (even though it's supposedly fictional). What route he had completed? How does that measure up vs. real ultra marathon runners? Here's are some clues: 




Forrest started his three-year-long run from his front porch in Greenbow, AL in the early morning of July 5, 1976. 
 
Forrest headed to the west first. Across Greenbow (fictional) County, followed by the "Great State of Alabama", and clear to the Pacific Ocean (reaching it at the location of the Santa Monica Pier, Santa Monica, CA. He then turned around, and as he says "kept on going" and got to another ocean (Atlantic Ocean) at Marshall Point Lighthouse, Marshall Point Road, Port Clyde, ME. He only stopped for sleeping, eating and going to bathroom.

 
After more than two years, Forrest was about to cross the Mississippi River for the 4th time somewhere near St. Louis, MO. The TV screen (in the background of the film) actually showed a sketch of his route up to then.
 
Nobody really knows what route Forrest took after he crossed Mississippi River for the 4th time, but we do know where and when he ended his run. It is obvious from the location in the film, when Forrest states "I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home", he ended his run at Monument Valley, UT on US Highway 163 near UT and AZ border in the evening of September 19, 1979. He had run for 3 years 2 months 14 days and 16 hours.
 
Obviously, the single most important clue is the sketch of the route on the TV screen. The following image shows a enlarged and sharpened frame of it.






From this sketch we know in more than two years he ran across America about 3.5 times. For the remaining a year or less, he probably kept running to the east, hit the east coast somewhere, turned around and started his fifth crossing from east to west. We know he ended the run in Utah. The question is: did he stop in Utah before he finished the fifth crossing or after he finished the fifth crossing and started the sixth crossing from the west coast? My guess is that he didn't finish the fifth crossing because he probably didn't have enough time otherwise, if he kept the same pace throughout his journey. The last movie clip indicates that just before he stopped at Monument Valley, UT, he was running from east to west because when he said "I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now", he went to the opposite direction, his home direction.    

Based on the sketch and some filling in of blanks, the following is list of cities that Forrest probably passed through: 






    
Cross1
    
Cross2
    
Cross3
    
Cross4
    
Cross5
   
    
Mobile, AL
    
Santa Monica Pier, Santa Monica, CA
    
Marshall Point Rd, Port Clyde, ME
    
San Francisco, CA
    
Norfolk, VA
   
    
Dallas, TX
    
Las Vegas, NV
    
Burlington, VT
    
Reno, NV
    
Pittsburgh, PA
   
    
Alamogordo, NM
    
St George, UT
    
Watertown, NY
    
Salt Lake City, UT
    
Indianapolis, IN
   
    
Phoenix, AZ
    
Albuquerque, NM
    
Cleveland, OH
    
Fort Duchesne, UT
    
Lincoln, NE
   
    
Santa Monica Pier, Santa Monica, CA
    
Oklahoma City, OK
    
Lansing, MI
    
Craig, CO
    
Denver, CO
   
    
    
Knoxville, TN
    
Chicago, IL
    
Denver, CO
    
US-163, UT
   
    
    
Harrisonburg, VA
    
Rapid City, SD
    
St Louis, MO
    
   
    
    
Washington, DC
    
Boise, ID
    
Richmond, VA
    
   
    
    
New York, NY
    
Portland, OR
    
Norfolk, VA
    
   
    
    
Boston, MA
    
San Francisco, CA
    
    
   
    
    
Marshall Point Rd, Port Clyde, ME
    
    
    
   
 


Using these cities as waypoints, it's loosely possible to generate the Forrest Gump Route. This is what it looks like.






Notice that the route generated does not match the sketch precisely. This is because 1) The route is entirely based on drivable roads. The route engine used tends to pick fast, major highways, while Forrest might pick any roads, including less important country roads; 2) The sketch is not very realistic in areas such as big mountain ranges and deserts, where there are simply no roads, assuming he always ran on some kind of roads. Forrest wasn't THAT dumb. 

Here's a comparison of Forrest Gump with some famous REAL long distance runners: 





    
Runner
    
Forrest Gump
    
Jesper Olsen
    
Dean Kamazes
    
Mark Covert
    
Frank Giannino
   
    
Duration      (days) 
    
1169.7
    
660
    
50
    
14600
    
46.3
   
    
Distance      (miles)
    
15182
    
16156
    
1310
    
150000
    
3000
   
    
Speed      (miles/day)
    
13.0
    
24.5
    
26.2
    
10.3
    
64.8
   
    
Description
    
Forrest Gump ran across America back-to-back for five times in a span of three years (1976 - 1979), covered a distance of some 15,000 miles.
    
Jesper Olsen of Denmark is the record holder of world run. He ran around the world in 22 months, on a route consisting of: London-Copenhagen-Moscow-Vladivostok-(air)-Niigata-Tokyo-(air)-Sydney-Perth-(air)-Los Angeles-Vancouver-New York-(air)-Shannon-Dublin-(air)-Liverpool-London. It covers a land distance of some 26000 km.
    
Dean Kamazes, the ultramarathon man, was ranked by a TIME magazine poll as one the "Top 100 Influential People in the World." One of his recent endeavors was running 50 marathons, in all 50 states, in 50 consecutive days. 
    
Mark Covert, a teacher of Lancaster, CA, is the longest streaker in the U.S., having run at least one mile a day everyday since July 23, 1968, which is more than 40 years and still counting! His lifetime total distance is over 150,000 miles so far.
    
The trans USA ultramarathon record is 46 days 8 hours 36 minutes (San Francisco, CA - New York, NY) set by Frank Giannino in 1980. 
   
 


By comparison Forrest Gump was more like a streak runner than a marathoner. He ran at a moderate rate everyday for a relatively long period of time. Keep in mind that he did not run for setting record. He did it for clearing his mind as he explained "My mama always said 'you got to put the past behind you before you can move on' and I think that's my run was all about."


Lastly, (getting back to equities), I say... "Forrest...Go back to Greenbow"...