Morning Audibles 3.30.10 - P2, The Run of Forrest Gump

On just about every financial blog I read, the constant topic seems to be, "How long will this bull run continue, seemingly unabated"? I've been known to ponder the same question from time to time. My ponderer is sore. So instead of trying to figure it out on charts or anything (which enough, ahem, "experts", have done already). I thought I'd illustrate what seems to be the path we're following in a metaphorical sense (both in terms of possible duration, and underlying motive for doing so).


Everyone remembers Forrest Gump running across America. Most famously, he ran across America back to back several times over a span of three years to get over the heartbreak of Jenny's leaving him.
Putting aside the symbolism of all his runs, one wonders how realistic his ultramarathon run was (even though it's supposedly fictional). What route he had completed? How does that measure up vs. real ultra marathon runners? Here's are some clues:
  • Forrest started his three-year-long run from his front porch in Greenbow, AL in the early morning of July 5, 1976.
  • Forrest headed to the west first. Across Greenbow (fictional) County, followed by the "Great State of Alabama", and clear to the Pacific Ocean (reaching it at the location of the Santa Monica Pier, Santa Monica, CA. He then turned around, and as he says "kept on going" and got to another ocean (Atlantic Ocean) at Marshall Point Lighthouse, Marshall Point Road, Port Clyde, ME. He only stopped for sleeping, eating and going to bathroom.
  • After more than two years, Forrest was about to cross the Mississippi River for the 4th time somewhere near St. Louis, MO. The TV screen (in the background of the film) actually showed a sketch of his route up to then.
  • Nobody really knows what route Forrest took after he crossed Mississippi River for the 4th time, but we do know where and when he ended his run. It is obvious from the location in the film, when Forrest states "I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home", he ended his run at Monument Valley, UT on US Highway 163 near UT and AZ border in the evening of September 19, 1979. He had run for 3 years 2 months 14 days and 16 hours.
Obviously, the single most important clue is the sketch of the route on the TV screen. The following image shows a enlarged and sharpened frame of it.
From this sketch we know in more than two years he ran across America about 3.5 times. For the remaining a year or less, he probably kept running to the east, hit the east coast somewhere, turned around and started his fifth crossing from east to west. We know he ended the run in Utah. The question is: did he stop in Utah before he finished the fifth crossing or after he finished the fifth crossing and started the sixth crossing from the west coast? My guess is that he didn't finish the fifth crossing because he probably didn't have enough time otherwise, if he kept the same pace throughout his journey. The last movie clip indicates that just before he stopped at Monument Valley, UT, he was running from east to west because when he said "I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now", he went to the opposite direction, his home direction.    Based on the sketch and some filling in of blanks, the following is list of cities that Forrest probably passed through:
Cross1 Cross2 Cross3 Cross4 Cross5
Mobile, AL Santa Monica Pier, Santa Monica, CA Marshall Point Rd, Port Clyde, ME San Francisco, CA Norfolk, VA
Dallas, TX Las Vegas, NV Burlington, VT Reno, NV Pittsburgh, PA
Alamogordo, NM St George, UT Watertown, NY Salt Lake City, UT Indianapolis, IN
Phoenix, AZ Albuquerque, NM Cleveland, OH Fort Duchesne, UT Lincoln, NE
Santa Monica Pier, Santa Monica, CA Oklahoma City, OK Lansing, MI Craig, CO Denver, CO
Knoxville, TN Chicago, IL Denver, CO US-163, UT
Harrisonburg, VA Rapid City, SD St Louis, MO
Washington, DC Boise, ID Richmond, VA
New York, NY Portland, OR Norfolk, VA
Boston, MA San Francisco, CA
Marshall Point Rd, Port Clyde, ME
Using these cities as waypoints, it's loosely possible to generate the Forrest Gump Route. This is what it looks like.
Notice that the route generated does not match the sketch precisely. This is because 1) The route is entirely based on drivable roads. The route engine used tends to pick fast, major highways, while Forrest might pick any roads, including less important country roads; 2) The sketch is not very realistic in areas such as big mountain ranges and deserts, where there are simply no roads, assuming he always ran on some kind of roads. Forrest wasn't THAT dumb. Here's a comparison of Forrest Gump with some famous REAL long distance runners:
Runner Forrest Gump Jesper Olsen Dean Kamazes Mark Covert Frank Giannino
Duration (days) 1169.7 660 50 14600 46.3
Distance (miles) 15182 16156 1310 150000 3000
Speed (miles/day) 13.0 24.5 26.2 10.3 64.8
Description Forrest Gump ran across America back-to-back for five times in a span of three years (1976 - 1979), covered a distance of some 15,000 miles. Jesper Olsen of Denmark is the record holder of world run. He ran around the world in 22 months, on a route consisting of: London-Copenhagen-Moscow-Vladivostok-(air)-Niigata-Tokyo-(air)-Sydney-Perth-(air)-Los Angeles-Vancouver-New York-(air)-Shannon-Dublin-(air)-Liverpool-London. It covers a land distance of some 26000 km. Dean Kamazes, the ultramarathon man, was ranked by a TIME magazine poll as one the "Top 100 Influential People in the World." One of his recent endeavors was running 50 marathons, in all 50 states, in 50 consecutive days. Mark Covert, a teacher of Lancaster, CA, is the longest streaker in the U.S., having run at least one mile a day everyday since July 23, 1968, which is more than 40 years and still counting! His lifetime total distance is over 150,000 miles so far. The trans USA ultramarathon record is 46 days 8 hours 36 minutes (San Francisco, CA - New York, NY) set by Frank Giannino in 1980.
By comparison Forrest Gump was more like a streak runner than a marathoner. He ran at a moderate rate everyday for a relatively long period of time. Keep in mind that he did not run for setting record. He did it for clearing his mind as he explained "My mama always said 'you got to put the past behind you before you can move on' and I think that's my run was all about." Lastly, (getting back to equities), I say... "Forrest...Go back to Greenbow"...

263 comments:

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CV said...

@ben

How does that work with "The Prince"?

Does he have to bow to Obama, or is it the other way around?

I need to brush up on these things in case natural born Americans are required to take a "citizenship" examination...

CV said...

British Bookmakers at it again - Bookmakers taking wild bets on Tiger's Masters return

Will he kiss an anonymous blonde on the first tee?

McFearless said...

C,

We aren't going to have citizenship exams, what with so many people that can't find The Iraq on a map for starters. Really thought that's not right, we must do something.

Map Bill!

Leftback said...

"many people that can't find The Iraq on a map"

most people can't find their arse in the dark.....

Leftback said...

You have to pronounce that Eye-Rak as well, right?

CV said...

@LB

I can find my arse on a dark map... sometimes...

CV said...

Actually my arse is quite used to the dark (because it has been "covered" so many times when STOPS were taken out in P2)...

McFearless said...

LB,

That's right, the q is silent....

DL said...

McF @ 2:54

If you've ever watched "Jay walking" (Jay Leno), it's truly breathtaking what people don't know.

karen said...

The Modern Day Financial Story of Passover

CV said...

Speaking of EYE RACK's...

Here's a site you can go to to "guess the celebrity rack...

http://www.derober.com/2008/05/06/guess-the-celebrity-rack/

(nothing "x" rated - but probably not for 'at business' browsers)

Mannwich said...

@DL: I've seen it and don't find it that amusing. Horrifying is a word that comes to mind. How can people be so incurious about the world around them?

Leftback said...

C: All inclusive, apart from KAREN'S Top...

McFearless said...

DL,

I've seen that bit before, you are right, it is amazing.

Virtually every day I find myself thinking:

What the hell is wrong with people?

DL said...

McF @ 3:15

... and they vote.

McFearless said...

I've seen them ask who the first president of the US was on the Jay Walking before and some of the answers were just unreal. One guy I recall got pretty close, I think he said George Adams, then Jay laughed, and the dude caved and said George Foreman, and then said, no, no, it's George Adams.

When it was revealed to be George Washington I believe the guy said something like:

who dat?

DL said...

Speaking of Karen's top, I notice she doesn't have feet any more.

McFearless said...

DL,

Yes they do, and look at our rewards, GW Bush and now Obama.

I'm going to write in George Foreman next election.

DL said...

McFearless @ 3:18

What Leno sometimes does with a person like that is to ask him who the lead singer is for some heavy metal band, and of course he gets that one right immediately.

Leftback said...

Yes. It was perfect for a while, iconically speaking, with Karen's feet and shoes, and seemingly endless long shapely legs, and then there was also Nic's top. Now all we have is the Piggy.

Leftback said...

George Washington doesn't have a grill named after him....

karen said...

now this is going to be interesting:

UPDATE: RBS To Market $500 Mln Commercial Mortgage Bond Deal
3:12 PM ET 3/30/10 | Dow Jones

NEW YORK--The first commercial mortgage bond deal of the year is expected to be marketed to investors this week, according to sources close to the deal.

The offer is seen as a sign of investors' willingness to tolerate risk, despite the deteriorating fundamentals of commercial real estate, as long as a deal is accompanied by adequate protection and conservative underwriting.

RBS, through its real estate advisory business, will offer a $500 million security backed by existing loans that were refinanced and underwritten to stricter guidelines.

The top slice of the deal is expected to be offered in the area of swaps plus 95 basis points, said a source who had spoken to the bankers on the deal. That is roughly the same price range as the first post-crisis CMBS deal, which Developers Diversified Realty brought to market last December.

karen said...

more..

The new-issue market for commercial mortgage bonds has been quiet since December, when offerings from Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chace & Co. followed the DDR deal in quick succession. While those two issues were well received by investors, and now trade about 50 basis points tighter than initial sale price, the deteriorating fundamentals of commercial real estate have cast a shadow over the sector, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Markets.

Delinquencies continue to rise across all property types as tenants struggle to keep up with rent payments and owners with mortgages. The shrinking economy and high unemployment rate have compounded the woes of this sector.

However, bankers believe they can make saleable securities by bundling up only the best of the best loans-–highly rated borrowers with plenty of skin in the game and prime properties.

The RBS deal, for instance, is said to be backed by about a half-dozen loans to multiple borrowers with multiple property types. It's unclear if RBS refinanced these loans, or served as a conduit for the borrowers to find sources of capital. Since its restructuring last year, the bank has relegated commercial real estate as a non-core business, and has said it is not originating new loans for its balance sheet.

Leftback said...

They are desperate to do these deals before the next blow-up....

McFearless said...

well, it's been fun as always folks but I have to start getting ready for idol tonight.

(j/k....meetings, but you could imagine, or you already did)

Larry Krudlow said...

Did someone say blow?

Leftback said...

We have been creeping into TBT as a hedge against any possible ADP-induced bond carnage tomorrow morning. We probably will not get net short this time, just flat. We will load a trailer on it at the close.

BTW, have to run very promptly, so no bond report today. Full analysis will resume tomorrow !!

I-Man said...

Ho-hum... lets liquidate as much as possible without dropping the tape.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Any of you guys getting any rain?

I-Man said...

Of course, it rains once a day out here.

I-Man said...

And if it doesnt, I make it rain.

Make it rain on em...

DL said...

B in T,

Now we're the weather channel?

Leftback said...

B in T: I have had several free extra showers this week. Thanks.

Mannwich said...

Same old, same old. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...........

Mannwich said...

Banana Ben and Timmy got your back. NOBODY SELL ANYTHING.

Leftback said...

We are roughly flat in fixed income going into tomorrow. So we are protected against an apocalyptic massively positive ADP number.

Fading tomorrow's trade also likely to be profitable, but we are going to wait until after the next Magic Monday to get involved again.

Nic said...

I'm done too.
Volatility in currencies and some activity but no clear direction or theme (apart from universal aversion to EUR). Stop-start trading with no momentum to follow is very tiring zzzzzz

Leftback said...

Huge pile of hedges slapped on in the last few minutes.

LB Moves Markets...

CV said...

@LB (3:56)
Which Magic Monday? 2013?

Revelation 13:17 - And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

Leftback said...

See you tomorrow, gorgeous ladies.

No, not you, Mannwich !!

AmenRa said...

CV

13:18 - That mark is the shaven head, the name is Lloyd B and the number is 33.

CV said...

I'll c'yall too... Thanks for the chatter :-)

Gotta get a little plantin' done tomorrow...

It's supposed to be 70-80 degrees & sunny here all the way thru Easter Sunday!

AMEN RA will be 'cooking the books (I mean, re-capping at 5:30)...

Nic said...

Nice. Friday we were all bitches ...

AmenRa said...

Make that 85...

Mannwich said...

@lb: Ha! See you later. 72 here in the tundra. Off with the dog. This global warming thing is a boon for Mannwich. ;-)

DL said...

sexy bitches, I think.

CV said...

@Amen

33 is "33 Liberty" - Same difference...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, my AMAT is up 95 cents since I started buying it...thank goodness for small favors..

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: See, Banana Ben likes YOU too, Bruce. We can ALL be rich. Just buy stocks or be priced out forever.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yep, except AMAT is entering a sweet spot in the chip equipment manufacturing cycle. There was even more good news today.

Going to run. Later.

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