Morning Audibles 3.23.10 - Let's Do The 'Scooby Doo' Ending!

Kathimerini reports that the state-owned Hellenic Post Bank (TT), a firm that operates about 2 blocks away from the parliament building in Athens, held 15%, or ($1.2 billion), of the total $8 billion in Greek notional CDS bought $1.2 billion of Greek CDS at 135 bps in August 2009 and sold them at 235 bps in December at 235 bps, making a profit of €35 million.


http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_economy_0_22/03/2010_115787




Break out the 'Scooby Snacks'! You know... While CV could get all wide eyed and frenzied about this, instead, it just makes me realize how much it appears that the global circus that has become politics and capital markets is not something you want to stand against unless you have a great deal of patience, and/or ignorance.


I think Warren Buffett said "There's never one cockroach in the kitchen" (he should know right)?. You have to just wonder if Bernanke, the FED, the Squid, or Saint Jamie aren't making the same bets on US sovereign debt (while handing "the anointed one" the credit card). Will anyone ever show up to fix the problem? I doubt it. Is anyone in Washington smart enough to even know (or care)? Probably not!




So once again, my friends, "It's BUG BETTING time". First bug to enter the roach motel wins $5, place your bet on your bug. SPX, where to all you "long" bug betters? 1200? 1300? For today, existing homes sales comes out at 10AM. Will it be lousy? Probably! Will the markets care (or care about Greek CDS)? Probably not!


If you're unclear, let me explain to you how capital markets work. Here's the basic situation in housing.




The graph clearly shows that despite the present backlog of inventory and foreclosed homes on the market, the situation is about to get A LOT worse (as the next two years will bring the largest tsunami of option ARM resets). Basically, those just barely hanging on, are about to join the perma-delinquent masses. But as we all know, "when the going gets tough, the tough go shopping"! (Macy's working on a 4 bagger in the past 12 months, and up over 45% in the past month).




Roosevelt was famous for the line "you have nothing to fear, but fear itself". The present guy, ever the pragmatist, and likening himself to Roosevelt, basically decided to shorten that mantra. Today, it's simply "you have nothing to fear...", period... Don't pay your mortgages, & don't worry about any resets. That's the message. We hold all the power, so we'll just pass laws that let you stay in your houses, or just put the bad loans on our own credit card. When the bill comes due, we'll just tear it up (well actually, I'll be OUTTA HERE by then so it won't be my problem - where will I be, you ask? - Probably off on my own private island that these nice cockroaches campaign financiers will have bought for me using the profits from the CDS's they bought on the sovereign debt of the US).


While I'm at it, I think I'll send wifey and the kids off to New York to do a little Easter shopping and start getting provisions for the island. While it's probably beneath my high standards to do so, I'll tell 'em to stop by Macy's and grab a few photo-ops with the hoi polloi...


The last time I checked, "The Mystery Machine" was only a 70's van (not a boat)... I ought to be safe on my island...

327 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 327   Newer›   Newest»
call me ahab said...

"Stock futures edged higher Tuesday as the market appears set to extend its slow, steady climb -a trend that has become the norm in recent weeks." Yahoo Finance

You see everyone- it's normal! lol

I on the other hand think it is "strange" to not have even the slightest volatility- but maybe that makes me AB-normal.

call me ahab said...

"Today, it's simply "you have nothing to fear...", period"

and CV- keeping w/ the "Scooby Doo" theme- bad choices are no longer there to "haunt" you-

everything gets ironed out and smoothed over for you- there's the capitalist spirit! lol

and . . . I might add- I am waiting for the GSE's to make everyone whole again-

lest more foreclosures hurt our upward momentum to infinity and beyond!

CV said...

@abab (8:03)

One need look no further than BR's "informal" survey posted at his sight this morning...

Waiting for the Next Inflection Point (the title says it right there - emphasis on WAITING)...

Of the 5 basic categories...

1) All In:
2) Not-Too-Late:
3) Reluctantly, Partially Invested:
4) Bought It, Sold It, Waiting for Clarity:
5) Missed it Totally, Waiting for Vindication:

4 out of the 5 say YOU'RE WAITING... (1,3,4,5)

That leaves only lest than 20% doing ANY kind of playing around... And those do so VERY CAUTIOUSLY...

The rest is algos...

The ultimate wisdom of economic policy measures has ground capital markets to a halt...

Nothing to do but sit around and wait for the next shoe to drop and when it does, print a few dollars to sweep it under the rug...

We'll be out of this thing by next century...

CV said...

...further... The VERY CAUTIOUS ones are ones who are on both the BUY & SELL side...

CV said...

That's why I say...

"It's BUG BETTING time"

call me ahab said...

CV-

that BR is having that discussion says volumes

CV said...

@ahab

Say, to me, that BR himself is uncertain himself, probably thinking about bailing, and wants to take everyone's pulse...

DL will set him straight... GO LONG!

Because 85% of the 'economists' and fund managers out there just KNOW, SIMPLY KNOW that we're going to 1200-1300...

They've been saying it all along...

GROUPTHINK is 'always' correct...

call me ahab said...

CV-

DL has been long- in hindsight- a most excellent strategy- but I wouldn't call him a bull by any means- I remember talking to him some time ago @ the BP and he was always skeptical of the rally but was hesitantly taking the risk-

so using your words (or Bill Murray's)"he has that going for him"(-:

besides that- DL seems like a pretty stand up dude

CV said...

@ahab

Don't get me wrong... I like DL, I understand what he's doing (and I sure he understands what he's doing)...

However, from time to time, I do require a 'poster boy'...

I just get tired of all the MoMos for the past year that said the market would recover to the 1200-1300 levels...

Actually, back 12 months ago, I could understand that sentiment (if, for only pure TECHNICAL REASONS - while I wasn't on board with that - I understood it)...

I see less and less reasons why it should follow through at this point... Any 'hope' for fundamentals to back these levels has never materialized (and for all intents and purposes, it looks like things are about to get WORSE not BETTER)...

Fear & Greed has become FEAR & GREED

The 'new' distinction, though, of FEAR does not manifest itself in selling... Instead, buying continues IN FEAR of what might happen if and when a collapse were to occur...

So... "We have nothing to FEAR"... apparently

CV said...

They say... "markets look forward"

Instead, these days that should read:

"Markets look forward, and in looking forward, they do not like what they see and are so fearful of the outcome that the only thing to do is to keep inflating asset prices so as to avoid the correct equilibrium"

The market is thus frozen...

mcHAPPY said...

That high 1.34 range on the EUR:USD is kryptonite. It keeps bouncing off it every time it touches.

AmenRa said...

Umm, umm did anyone take a look at BIDU in premarket? +2.3%

AmenRa said...

I also see selling of the long bond which isn't good for equities (hat tip LB).

CV said...

@Amen

Some EW'er (can't remember who), was actually talking about the the move down from the most recent top on BIDU to be a "4"...

So, by that measure, there would be a 5 coming, but I think they said that the 5 may play out flattish (and/or not go to new highs)...

CV said...

@mcHappy (9:09)

Well, if the MOON is made out of swiss cheese, let's hope the planet "Krypton" is as well...

call me ahab said...

CV- your quote @ 8:57?

good observation

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-guarantees-for-freddie-can-ease-crisis-2010-03-23


Obviously the playbook of the bazooka in the pocket is still in play. I can't wait for Denninger to rip this. These morons really have not learned a thing.

CV said...

@McHappy

If I recall, he already did...

Something to the effect of the fact that the actual TRANSCRIPT of Timmeh's" 17 page testimony was "leaked" from the web site...

So basically, we're supposed to really believe in anything these guys say, (these "guys" who can't even keep a report from airing publicly before it's even presented)...

CV said...

I just notices that "The Squid" is right on a 61.8% retrace back to its October highs...

And it's Friday candle looks like an A=C (in my novice EW view)...

Probably means it's ready to RAMP huh? (rolls eyes)...

call me ahab said...

mchappy/CV-

and I wonder. . . regarding mchappy's post- if the USG will then bring the GSE's onto the government's books?

my guess- no

McFearless said...

First, I'm pretty sure Krypton was built of crystals, and was cold. Very important.

"politics and capital markets is not something you want to stand against unless you have a great deal of patience, and/or ignorance."

I may have too much of both?

Fear and Faith are the two basic forces always at work....something I've considered for years, Greed arises out of each.

I-Man said...

How about this one, McF?

Greed vs Fear

Faith vs Despair

Kind of like a libra scale with a pendulum on each end instead of a basket...

Follow I?

CV said...

FWIW

The move from the open this morning covered the last existing gap on the 5 minute charts from last weeks high...

It probably doesn't mean anything, but there are no OPEN WINDOWS on the upside (save to go to new highs)...

Or, it was just CLOSING THEM so there would be no questions that we can move down...

Take your pick...

call me ahab said...

maybe "the plan" is to take the market back to 1500-

volume or no volume-

no conspiracy theory here

I-Man said...

For the first time in 5 years, I truly feel "over" the market.

Just dont have the motivation, or energy, to even look at a chart right now.

Inflection point, inschlection point...

Show me the money.

CV said...

@ahab

I had this crazy notion the other day that the market would go to 1618...

McFearless said...

@I-man,

I think I follow, but I'll fill up the whole thread talking about it :).

Ahab,

Whoa now, lets get to 1200 first....lol.

CV said...

@I-Man

What do you think it's like for me (trying to write a narrative every morning - trying AS HARD AS POSSIBLE to be as REAL as possible - yet in doing so, understanding that everything I'm doing is based on "phoniness")...

I must be out of my mind!

call me ahab said...

. . . another thought- I wonder if China will "lay down the law" to Hong Kong regarding re-routing searches done on Google in the mainland to Hong Kong-

I wonder if the "One Nation- Two Systems" doctrine will hold

CV said...

@McF

The thing that's needed to finally turn these markets around (and make some sense) is FOR YOU & ME TO GO LONG!

call me ahab said...

be careful CV- re your 9:43 post-

we already have one Denninger-

although- I like much of what he has to say

Leftback said...

LB called a steepener for the day and here it is... tightening stops on the hedge in case existing homes/Turbo Timmy bomb the market... not going to happen, obviously.

call me ahab said...

CV-

I love looking at historical charts- I always say to myself-

"man- why didn't they buy there- they would have made a fortune"- lol

CV said...

@ahab

I just wish I had "Biffs" Sports Almanac from "Back to the Future"...

Leftback said...

Added to shorts.

CV said...

@ahab

After all... FIXING sports games is so much easier, entertaining, and amusing in the process...

McFearless said...

C,

I still buy longs from time to time the last few months, but I'm not "going long" as in a net long portfolio.

If that's what the market is waiting for and then it will break then we are in fact going to infinity.

call me ahab said...

CV-

no kidding- it always looks like a "cake walk' in hindsight-

a twelve year old could figure it out-

"let's see- I would have bought here and here and here- sold here- bought here-"

lol

call me ahab said...

b22 @ 9:59-

. . .and beyond

McFearless said...

yet in doing so, understanding that everything I'm doing is based on "phoniness"

don't give up man, I just read an article recently where a study was done that showed that people tend to lie on average about 8-10 times in every hour long conversation.

Life is full of phoniness.

McFearless said...

I mean, just think, people have been walking around with debt in their pockets for several decades thinking it represented wealth.

How much more fake does it get?

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben22

I don't believe the study. Anyways so back to me. I'm extremely handsome - a cross between Leo and Brad. Have I ever told you how wealthy I am? I'm debating a Ferrari or a Lambo for the next summer car - what do you think? Did you know I was used as the body double in the last Spartacus - heh, you know the guy. Anyways, I've got to take off as my pilot is giving me the signal we are good to take off for Dubai. Don't worry, I won't be gone long, just to check on my new tower - you might have heard about it in early January when it opened.

Cheers.

Johnny Retail said...

b22 - What do you mean? I got more stuff than you.... of course I also have a lot more debt than you... but if I don't buy stuff, I don't get laid... and my house is worth a $1M. Brian told me.

CV said...

@McF

I was reading something though that was talking about the 'Asian' idea was not, so much, to wear your WEALTH on your lapel (as Americans tend to do)...

They were using it, ostensibly, to make a case that the Asians & Middle Easterners are actually squirreling away gold as we speak (and being rather silent about it)...

Just what we need... "conspiracy theories" going to infinity along with asset prices!

call me ahab said...

b22-

reminds me of that commercial where the guy is riding on his lawn mower in from of a beautiful house w/ a swimming pool and fine cars-

and when asked how he does it- he says "he's in debt up to his eyeballs"

I-Man said...

Ben, your 10:03 is brilliance.

McFearless said...

@Mchappy,

See now that's strange, you just described me, lol!

The only difference is next year I'm skipping a new car purchase and going directly to a sub.

Have I mentioned my new g/f, last name is Anniston...it's going ok.

CV said...

@McHappy

I only counted 5 there (not 8-10)... You must therefore, actually be a "stand up" guy...

John Mayer said...

Hey, Ben. I banged her you know....

McFearless said...

ahab,

I know that commercial, I always liked that one as well.

@C,

I just think different cultures express social mood in different ways, perhaps at some point deeper into the wave structure of chinese social mood people there will "wear the wealth". Feeling very philosophical at the moment though, I just remind myself that you can get all the "stuff" you want, but in the end you don't take any of it with you.

I-Man said...

"Realest shit I ever wrote, chillin in my maybach- whatever I send out homie I'm a make back...

Can you believe that? You gotta see that."

CV said...

Those last 3 (5 min.) candles on SPX look very strange to me...

McFearless said...

Mayer,

Yeah, I read about it. We don't really talk about that though.

call me ahab said...

speaking of Spartacus-

damn good show-

how representative it is to those times-- no clue- but good nonetheless

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Sorry, there were only 4 fibs in there. lol

I-Man said...

Interesting read:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704211704575139303670915216.html

"Trade Deficit Could Aid China in Currency Debate"

karen said...

Guess who overslept ?! another great post CV.. oh dear, my coffee is weak this morning.

karen said...

CV, a friend sent me a bullish Jim Paulsen view.. I will forward it to you for fun (not to gag you!)

AmenRa said...

So this is what a knife feels like as it twists in your back...

Mannwich said...

It's official. Mannwich has capitulated. Let's face it, we bears were and are wrong.

call me ahab said...

manny-

I am not wrong- my timing is just off- lol

McFearless said...

I keep hearing a lot of pundits say that phrase, "the market is going to get back to what it does, discounting the future", which implies that it "sees" into the future.

I disagree.

The market doesn't see into the future it records like a barometer the causes of the future. Increasingly optimism net social mood expands business; increaseing depressed net social mood contract their businesses. The results show up later as a "discounted" future.

Another thing I thought of last night is that I think part of the reason that so many people are calling for inflation is because it's what they WANT. After a little taste of deflation in 08, and man was that shit bitter, what else would someone want? We all look to the Fed for a cure to this disease of inflation, though sadly, it's the only thing that gives most people in this country any chance of deslaving moving forward.

CV said...

@Amen

I thought that pain in my back was from the 6 hours of "power washing" the decks I put in this weekend...

McFearless said...

"Let's face it, we bears were and are wrong."

At what degree of trend?

DL said...

From Hussman’s website (3/22/10)

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100322.htm


"Strenuously Overbought, Again

On Thursday, the S&P 500 pushed to a strenuously overbought level, with over 90% of S&P 500 stocks above their respective 50-day, 20-day and 10-day averages. Back on October 19, 2009, when the S&P 500 was about 5% lower than it is here, I noted that the S&P 500 had never been more (intermediate-term) overbought. Clearly, the overbought conditions we observed 5 months ago did not prevent the market from pushing a few percent higher to yet another strenuously overbought peak. Still, even a shallow correction would put the market back at those October levels. That sort of outcome is an important characteristic of strenuously overbought markets".

McFearless said...

And one more as the market goes to infinity:

With Tiger coming back I keep watching him get asked the same questions over and over again by reporters. I almost sense they get pleasure out of it, this bull market icon getting ripped up like this.

It is not the person that matters to the crowd. It's the persona.

CV said...

@McF

Remember that the INFLATION numbers are "ex food & energy"...

Have you looked at gas prices recently?

Have you seen your food bill lately?

Inflation (because of these FED maneuvers), is actually showing up... And EXACTLY where they don't want it... This is the STEALTH thing going on here...

DEFLATION is in "flat screens" & cheap shit from China that nobody wants anymore...

INFLATION is showing up in driving your car, heating & air conditioning your house, and putting food in your mouth...

I-Man said...

Thats why you gotta know how to live Spartan.

call me ahab said...

I'll tell you one thing manny-

if I had Peabody's "wayback machine"- I'd know exactly what to do- lol

Mannwich said...

@ahab: LOL. Then you're (we're) wrong.

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Yeah, me too. LOL.

AmenRa said...

Manny

Bears should learn to hibernate more. Food tastes better when you're really hungry. I view bears as those who want the downside to occur but will play the upside until they see the weakness they have been waiting for. Bulls on the other hand only want the upside and will stay long even if the market crashes 50%. They view it as a better buying opportunity.

John Mayer said...

b22: I banged Jessica Simpson too.

Mannwich said...

@DL: This has to be KILLING Hussman.

Tiger's Wood said...

How come Mayer gets all the action?
C'mon Tiger, we gotta get out more... enough of this stayin' home...

McFearless said...

C,

I agree these forces are working against what "they" want, but I see it a little different I guess, gas in DE, even premium is nowhere near where it was in the summer of 08, it's just wave 2 in prices :).

In any event, I only consider those effects of inflation or deflation (prices)

Growth in the money supply AND Credit = inflation

CV said...

@DL

Is that like when Demi Moore "strenuously objected" to the the judge overruling here in A FEW GOOD MEN...

"I object your honor"
"Objection overruled"
"Your honor, I strenuously object..."
"OVERRULED COUNSEL!"

Is that' how it's done? I "STRENUOUSLY OBJECT" :-)

Mannwich said...

I agree, Amen, but it's tough as a bear to be buying too much now, no? That's the mind-fuck of it all. Go long NOW and finally the market falls apart. Stuck.

Tiger's Wood said...

I wouldn't strenuously object to Demi Moore...

karen said...

cheer up and look at goog! srs green, too! faz was green.. i mean these are miraculous moves.. will check some of the retailers, next.

DL said...

CV,

I do remember that exchange.

*****************************

I think the market creeps a little higher here, but then a 5-10% correction (within the next few weeks).

karen said...

today makes 3 taps to1170.. just as there were 3 taps to 1150.. we'll just cover our shorts on the next dip and go long! easy piece of cake!

CV said...

@ben

The bottom line is that the FED has its noses so deeply buried into meaningless numbers (like CPI & PPI), that it misses the REAL DAMAGE being done...

Inflated gas prices, food bills, and utility bills kill the economy more than anything... They're WAY WORSE than even debt itself, because debt you can always erase...

You can't erase the need to eat, or shelter yourself...

I-Man said...

Come on yall, there is no spoon.

Leftback said...

Manny,

You are over-thinking this. The people you hated in high school are right now engaged in another massive con game. Eventually they are going to be waxing cars at the dealership and working behind the check out.

It's a massive game of chicken.

CV said...

@karen (10:43)

I know right...

You've been saying for a few days now how much this tape looks like the 1/19 tape...

CV said...

or "those days" rather...

McFearless said...

Manny,

Did you see my question above? It was a serious one.

At what degree of trend were bears wrong?

A bear, in my book, is someone that believes the trend of prices will be down for a period of time.

Let's pretend that in 2007 you were my client, and I told you in the summer of that year "get all your money out of the market" and lets say, again, just a hypo, but lets say I told you put all of your money in BND and hold it until 3/23/2010 and we will reassess.

What would you be thinking right now as my client? If you were really upset how would you answer the questions I'd have for you:

1. At what degree of trend was I wrong?

2. Did my advice hurt you? If yes, how?

Would any of your response change if instead of BND I told you to put it all in cash and keep it there?

AmenRa said...

Manny

Just use options on SPY, DIA, NDX, SPX, etc. Not a large amount. Make a small profit while you wait for P3.

CV said...

@DL

"I think the market creeps a little higher here, but then a 5-10% correction (within the next few weeks)."

---

LOL - Is that YOUR version of Prechter's 18 month timeframe? jk ;-)

CV said...

@karen

If you're going to look at RETAILERS, I think you gotta look at AMZN... Down a percent & change...

McFearless said...

Manny,

If you want to go long why not just keeping changing a trailing stop on something like SPY.

It would seem you could pick some supports fairly easily and limit your losses if you were worried about buying right at the wrong time.

I bet MEH is still killing it right now doing some basic options strategies as another potential option if you wanted exposure with reduced risk.

Leftback said...

Here's your double dip:
FHFA Index

DL said...

CV @ 10:46

I lean bullish over the next 12-18 months.

But during the 2012-2014 time frame, I'm much more open to the bear case.

karen said...

and, when i look at amzn, i see the outline of an upside-down cup and handle.. that is destined for the low 90s..

call me ahab said...

DL-

is your "prediction" anyway predicated upon political pressure and manipulation running up to the 2012 election?

Leftback said...

The history of debt deflations shows that the P2 doesn't usually extend beyond a year. To me, it seems likely that the Fed's QE purchases of MBS may bracket the P2.

In retrospect this would be screamingly obvious to all !!!

I-Man said...

Not being glib with the spoon...

All I mean is, it doesnt have to be so complicated...

You can short SPY here with a buystop at 117.50

You can buy SPY here with a stoploss at 115.50

You can not do shit and wait until there is:

a. support established at 117.50, and go long
b. support broken at 115, and go short

Not trying to make it sound easy or anything, but all this talk about right and wrong, bull or bear, is going nowhere.

There is price, it moves around. We try to catch the moves and not be on the wrong side of them for any length of time.

We can seek the causality, the rationality, and it can entertain us and make us feel intelligent, but at the end of the day, if we're playing the game, we need to focus on price moves, and weed out the rest.

DL said...

ahab,

Politics, the Fed, and crude oil.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yeah, I DO have some longs out there that are doing OK (although one junk stock in particular is fading fast), but not making much hay because I'm not long enough. Oh well, I'm not losing money either anymore, so I guess it's all good.

CV said...

@DL

I don't argue with your logic (whatever that is) - because I'm sure (through the process of having tossed ideas back and forth on this forum - you seem to me to be the type that thinks things out)...

My MAIN problem with your timeframe are the "WHAT IF's"...

Your approach reminds me of when I hear reports out of the Congressional Budget Office talking about the 'deficit reduction' remedies that will pan out in 2010 (based on their 'working criteria')...

HA!

Let's see, you'd need steady 5% GDP, with NO RECESSIONS, NO WARS, NO PANDEMICS, NO OTHER GEO-POLITICAL RISKS... and you have to pass through 5 mid term election cycles in the process, 2 more Presidential elections, and assume that all state & local governments are solid in the process and don't require any of your assistance...

Not to mention any costly natural disasters like hurricanes, floods, drought, earthquakes...

Are you getting the picture?

I'm sure you are, but HEY, NONE of any of that will occur until after 2014 right?

karen said...

sks is a total joke, and thanks to jpm popped today.. they have negative PE for crying out loud! the discounting going on in the high-end dept store sector is getting extreme as they all compete with one another..

Saks rose to $9.30. J.P. Morgan lifted its rating on the upscale department store chain to overweight from neutral and upped its price target to $11 from $7 a share.

CV said...

I should have said "pan out in 2020"...

See, another WHAT IF... I made an "unintended error"...

How could that have POSSIBLY happened?

Leftback said...

I think a lot of people are forgetting that this market floats on mark-to-fantasy, ZIRP and Fed purchases of MBS....

McFearless said...

Manny,

thanks, seriously though, If you care to please respond to my longer post above, I'm basically asking you to help me prepare for questions I know I"m going to start to get. Sorry, no pay for this. :).

I-man,

I agree, those are the same trades I'd look at basically in the very near term.

Mannwich said...

My EM crap stock fading hard here. A sign?

Mannwich said...

@ben: I'd be glad to help!

CV said...

@LB

I don't think they're FORGETTING it as much as simply IGNORING it...

I suppose with enough "acne cream", any teenager would be willing to go outside and face the world...

DL said...

CV @ 11:00

I have a short-term view, an intermediate term view, and a long-term view.

My short-term view generally determines my investment posture (except in my 401K, where trading is not permitted).

karen said...

LB @ 11:03.. true, true, and true.. and one of those is ending at month end? and FNM and FRE are being discussed today, correct?

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Your response 11:07 is much better than mine. But same message. When reality matters again......

call me ahab said...

lb- exactly-

but a theory- or maybe a reality- the banks are waiting to be paid to write down mortgage balances by the GSE's- 2nd's are paid off 100%- thus the unlimited backstop that was enacted for the GSE's- for this purpose possibly-

anything to keep housing prices stable-

I am wondering if this is the next phase in "asset stabilization"

Mannwich said...

@ahab: That's what I'm thinking now as well. Or, what other magic trick can they pull out to compensate for the loss of QE? I'm sure they know they have to do something to keep this thing up?

McFearless said...

I still have to laugh at the political emphasis many have when talking about investment strategies.

Pull up a blank chart of the time and see if you can pick the Day Kennedy was killed. Can you find it? Try the same thing during the period when congress shut down due to unprecedented budget arguments.

How about if in 1986 you knew all of the following:

Democrats will take over the Senate by a wider margin that anyone expected. Ronald Regan will be caught in a national scandal involving Iran and during both, the largest financial scandal in 60 years was going to occur.

What would you have guessed the trend in stocks to be?

What about in 1992 if after 12 years of Republicans, that a Dem would be elected president and would enact the largest tax increase in US history and also try to socialize the entire medical industry....would you have sold based on this knowledge?

I don't see how you can end up losing more than you'll ever make like this.

I-Man said...

@ McHappy

Thx for the link to Forex Info USA. I'm digging that Lara chick's style. Good stuff.

CV said...

@karen

Speaking of "cuphandles" (AMZN)...

What is that that looks like that's starting up on the GS Daily?

McFearless said...

@Manny,

Here, let me do my best EB silver lining

"Oh well, I'm not losing money either anymore, so I guess it's all good."

But the dollar has been rising, so flat stock bought in dollars is still up.....technically.

AmenRa said...

Some humor for the day (from a post at ZH): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uUXwakPR1U&feature=player_embedded

Mannwich said...

Hey, thanks for that, ben! I'll take it!

And I won $375 in my FF pool and am #1 in my March Madness Pool (top payout over $1K). And a tax REFUND coming this year.

call me ahab said...

manny-

wow- soon to be living large I see(-:

McFearless said...

See dude, you are loaded.

You could probably even find some write-off in there if you tried hard enough. lol.

On another note, some of you that trade for a living, as I'm to understand it there are some new rules that allow you to claim far more than the pathetic $3k in capital losses. I won't go further with this as I'm not a CPA, but it's worth checking out for people that do this as a "job".

CV said...

@Manny

Better go LONG with all that loot (or be priced out forever)...

call me ahab said...

alright-

gotta roll- all have a GREAT day!

McFearless said...

"I'm digging that Lara chick's style."

Agreed, something about women that do EW analysis.

In the words of the great Paris Hilton:

That's Hot.

AmenRa said...

from LB's link:

Highlights
Home prices for federal agency sponsored mortgages continued to decline in January. Seasonally adjusted U.S. home prices declined 0.6 percent in January after a revised drop of 2 percent in December, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's monthly House Price Index. The index was down 3.3 percent when compared with last year.

The FHFA House Price Index is for purchases only and is based on mortgages either originated by federal housing agencies or bundled by them for the secondary market. Housing prices appear to be under new downward pressure as foreclosures are rising and there is no surge in demand as earlier in the summer and fall with the early effects of tax credits for first-time home buyers. Tax credits were still in effect in December but the boost in demand has waned.

No wonder they're talking about Fannie and Freddie today.

Nic said...

Hello
In FX the rumours are a possible Portugal downgrade and the SNB possibly cutting rates to save the Franc today Rumours, rumours, zzzzzzz
Hows everyone

Leftback said...

Snoozin'....thinkin' we're ripe for correctin'...

I-Man said...

@ McF

Not to mention chicks doing EW videos with NZ accents... that ALSO surf...

=

Super hot. So hot I need a flame retardant jumpsuit.

Nic said...

Snoozin sounds good.

CV said...

@Nic

Here's what Hans Brinker is up to these days...

I-Man said...

I-Man is filling out annuity applications, faxing shit, sneaking in a few EW USD videos by Lara, and reading Memoirs of a Minyan by Todd Harrison...

In between banter with my favorite cyber friends.

I-Man said...

That shouldve started with a "Hi, Nic"...

Sorry.

CV said...

... and as you can see, the Hans Brinker Hotel, like the Worlds Central Bankers, are doing their best to accommodate everyone...

Mannwich said...

Exactly AmenRa. Me-thinks the Feds have some trick up their sleeves for Fannie and Freddie in hopes of trying to prop up the housing market for as long as possible. More dollars down a rat hole for extend and pretend coming.

karen said...

Do read this all the way thru: Poachers Turned Gamekeepers

Leftback said...

LB will be back for the 2y auction. But here is more on the fact that the BOOGEYMAN is still here. He was HIDING IN THE BASEMENT...

Housing Inventory Up Again. Hoocadanode?

McFearless said...

Nic,

I'm really only looking forward to LOST right now, other than that, I'll admit to also being somewhat bored right now.

My ear is also about to fall off, I've been on the phone for two days straight it seems.

I hate talking on the phone.

CV said...

@ben

Let me guess... You were talking to Charlie Brown's teacher...

Johnny Retail said...

Ben, I need to buy more C. Ben? Ben? Ben?

Get with the program. BRIAN wouldn't keep me hanging.

CV said...

But Ben... REMEMBER - IT'S A PRIVILEDGE TO POUND ERASERS

McFearless said...

C,

Man, that's too funny, only because, it's way too much....like that. (CB's mom)

They are all screaming like Lucy:

All I want is what I have coming to me, All I want is my fair share!

Still, I'd rather do that than talk to one more retail FA that describes themself to me as "cautiously optimistic"

Nic said...

Thanks I-Man, Haha
Poachers turned Gamekeepers article v good, thanks.
I wish the weather was better today, I might not be so bored. Lost sounds good.

karen said...

Homeowner Bailouts? Look Again - It's Another Bank Bailout

disclosure, kid is short xlf

Tyler said...

... And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids and your blog.

BR had a post last week talking about people dancing on table tops at clubs in the late 90's. I was at a bar/club on Sat night and chicks were dancing on the tables (and it wasn't even a nudeie bar). Does this mean the top is in? Hard to say. I mean, heaven forbid that the market should drop more then a quarter percent -- call out the guard!

I-Man said...

I got kicked out of a karaoke bar once for doing that.

Nic said...

LB - I'm hearing that the Dai Ichi IPO is going to keep demand up for the yen all through next week and to not expect too much bounce right away when repatriation ends.

karen said...

and this is good news?

Moody's says U.S. credit card charge-offs flat; corroborates other signs of improvement 12:17 PM ET 3/23/10 | Briefing.com

CV said...

updated 7 minutes ago
annotated

WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama capped a yearlong political drama Tuesday, signing into law a landmark health care reform bill that had been seen as impossible just two months ago.

The president said the law "will set into motion what a generation of Americans have fought for."

He said he was confident the Senate would make fixes to the legislation "swiftly."

The president praised those House members who had "taken their lumps" during the overhaul debate. Shouted one lawmaker in the audience to laughter, "Yes we did!"

Obama paid tribute to what he called the "historic leadership and uncommon courage" of the members of Congress who pushed ahead with the measure amid the often heated debate. He also hailed the new law, saying it helps lift a "decades-long drag" on the economy.and installs a NEW ONE in the process...

With Victoria Kennedy, widow of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy in the audience, Obama took note of the long battle to bring the health overhaul measure to his desk. "He was confident we would do the right thing," the president said of the longtime Democratic lawmaker.Even though the president himself has never read the bill...

"We are not a nation that does what's easy ... we are a nation that faces its challeges and faces its responsibilities."try not to spit out your coffee when you read that

Now, Obama must sell the law's merits to a wary American public.now is Obamas chance to go out and do his best impersonation of Charlie Brown's teacher...

House and Senate Democrats who backed the bill, joined him for the ceremony at the White House.everyone else was EXCLUDED Afterward, they headed to the Interior Department for an even larger celebration probably, mostly to celebrate that the bill doesn't affect them personally and they are excluded from it...

The White House did everything possible to make sure Obama's health care victory lap carried the day with no competition. a call was put in to Lloyd & St. Jamie to make the stock market didn't plunge while they were drinking a toast to themselves...

Any questions?

karen said...

sorry, charge-offs (on US credit cards) ended feb at 11.08%..

bleeding to death slowly more likely..

DL said...

CV @ 12:25

"we are a nation that faces its challeges and faces its responsibilities."

*************************************

Yeah, like expanding government and redistributing the wealth.

karen said...

this can't possibly be true!

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

karen said...

$tran not playing the up up and away game..

mcHAPPY said...

@I

No worries on the FOREX site and Lara but I actually found it from a comment on AmenRa's site a couple of months ago. 3LB has been very good to mcHAPPY.

karen said...

i know you all get sick of me saying this but there is a h&s on gld for feb-march.. and something better give soon..

DL said...

Karen @ 12:46

The H&S is not that big, though.

However, if the S&P drops 5-10%, as I'm expecting, it should pull gold down with it.

CV said...

@karen

I see it... There actually IS a H&S on gold...

Take a look here...

CV said...

...looks like his tie & briefcase are pulling him down...

Nic said...

Gold is a beast, this 1100 level is so sticky.

CV said...

@DL

"like expanding government and redistributing the wealth"

What wealth? As ben said earlier, DEBT=WEALTH in this country (apparently)...

So Obama has decided to make people as IN DEBT as they can possibly be... You know... to make them FEEL 'wealthy'...

karen said...

DL, i think we need to start using CEF as a proxy for gold and silver.. i think gld has too much paper gold in its makeup.. it may even be a tool to control gold.. (i know i sound ridiculous) but i am going for more of the hard stuff next go round..

CV said...

@karen

I think we need to start a TUNGSTEN ETF...

karen said...

and take a look at $hui.. not a clear bullish case there..

DL said...

CV @ 12:55

Mr. "O" wants to take as much money as possible out of the hands of the top quintile
(of the income spectrum) and redistribute it to the bottom three quintiles.

Leftback said...

That's ridiculous. This government is giving all the money to the top 0.1 percentile.... shows what a joke this government is (and the last one) when you're attacking from the right and I am attacking from the left !!

karen said...

did you all see this? The Monetary Base During the Depression and Today

I don't know what's up these days but if the market doesn't correct.. i have to board the hyper-inflation train.

CV said...

@DL

That, my friend, is EXACTLY 'ass backwards'...

Not in PLAN, but in ACTION...

IOW - He wants to make people THINK he's doing that (and perhaps he himself believes he's doing that)...

But what will eventually COME of all these actions is the exact opposite...

McFearless said...

Joke of the Day:

Geithner: Guarantees for housing can limit crises


Wrong!

DL said...

Setting aside the issue of TARP, which we all hate, I don't see any programs designed to give money to the top 1%.

karen said...

Well, LB and DL, I would argue from a third angle, that the real "government" is the top 0.1 percentile.

Leftback said...

Not the top 1.0%, they get milked. Just the top 0.1%...

Banksters, I mean, Government doesn't care about the bottom 60% b/c there is no money there anyway. Just debt.

Get off the class warfare train and realize this is a Banana Republic and a small gang of kleptocrats are stealing everything in plain sight.

Leftback said...

Karen, EXACTLY !!

Leftback said...

The 2y not getting a lot of love:

Bid/Cover 3.00
Total Amount $44 B
Yield Awarded 1.000%

We hate the short end. Hate it. The 5y and 7y will be stronger.

McFearless said...

Uh, LB, exactly.

Lets not build a tax code that gives the wealthy a million ways from Sunday to hide or defer income and then try to say we are going to tax the top 1% to make things "fair"

What a show.

I-Man said...

It aint the 1%... its "The Club" in the 0.10% that gets all the wealth...

You know, the "guaranteed trades" crowd...

CV said...

@DL

I think you're a smart guy but I can't believe how unbelievably myopic you are with regards to this...

LB is EXACTLY right... It's not about "transferring" or "re-distributing" wealth...THERE IS NONE...

All this is is an ASSIGNMENT OF DEBT...

It's basically saying... OK, under this new system YOU (taxpayers) are the slaves, and YOU (bankers) are the lords...

You people work for us...

If that's not ASSIGNMENT OF BENEFITS to the top 1%, I don't know what is...

I-Man said...

The rest of us pisants are fighting over the scraps.

"Tryin to see 5 mill of a sin-gle, for real."
-Notorious BIG

DL said...

McFearless @ 1:17

Au contraire, mon ami.

The higher the marginal rates go, the more loopholes we'll get. Just look at the 1970's tax code.

I-Man said...

Dammit!

Thats:

"Tryin to see 5 mill OFF a single..."

(I hate it when I do that.)

Mannwich said...

Bingo, lb & karen.

DL said...

CV @ 1:19

"It's not about "transferring" or "re-distributing" wealth...THERE IS NONE..."

I understand about the debt. But there is (to use an analogy with the futures markets) "notional" wealth.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I only skimmed Jesse's post, I didn't see any charts on credit, perhaps I missed them. If not, the whole entire discussion is pointless, it's a long post for nothing, there is not even an agreed upong def. of what constitutes the money supply.

It's one thing for people to call for inflation, I get that, just don't agree with it right now. Hyperinflation right now is basically impossible for me to swallow. The US right now still retains global creditors at a very low cost. Another thing to consider is that something like 32% of U.S. government debt is due in less than one year with the average maturity at just over 4 years, and short-term interest rates are minuscule. Since bond yields are close to a 60-year low, there is still demand for the unprecedented issuance of Treasury debt.

Look at it this way: During its ongoing battle with deflation, Japan retained its global creditors, as seen by its low rates, which allowed its debt-to-GDP ratio to balloon up to 200%. The U.S.’s debt-to-GDP ratio ended 2009 at near 85%.

Given that I'm not sure how you make a call for hyperinflation, but I keep seeing them all over.

CV said...

@DL

I guess that's about in the same category as INTRINSIC VALUE (rolls eyes)...

CV said...

@DL

Ask yourself...

A meteor hits the planet... Who survives? Do the people with "notional wealth" preside?

DL said...

CV,

I just want someone to say something that's not related to TARP.

We all agree about TARP; nothing more needs to be said about it.

McFearless said...

DL,

We hardly need more loopholes, it's already extremely easy to hide/defer income. And isn't it a bit shortsighted to say you don't see programs that provide handouts to the top 1% and then mention TARP in the same line?

The bottom line is, you can't tax someone more, and then at the same time give them a way to hide the income to avoid the tax and tell all the people on the outside it's good for them. That's all that I'm saying.

I know, I know....it's politics.

I'm tired of politics.

McFearless said...

DBA looks like crapola today.

CV said...

@DL

There's the discrepancy... TARP is the furthest thing from my mind here...

I'm speaking of POLICY in general...

Think of it this way... It is undoubtedly the POLICY of this Administration to spend a great deal of money to go into a great deal of debt for future generations that will undoubtedly lead to one of two outcomes...

1. WAR - (which apparently the POLICY MAKERS despise themselves as they platformed AGAINST IT, even though they haven't done anything about it).

2.OVERCONSUMPTION - Trying to maintain the status quo requires an infrastructural buildout on a global scale... Whole economies would be required to be brought online (China & India are first in line)... But for that to work, other 'mercantile' economies would have to be brought online (probably the whole of Africa)... This all requires RESOURCE UTILIZATION, POLLUTION ON A MEGA SCALE, and many other problems that these same POLICY MAKERS think is a bad idea in the first place...

So what's the point?

The "inflation" game leads to unsustainable resource consumption, which itself, leads to competition for same, which in the end leads to war...

Why not DEFLATE instead?

karen said...

Make love, not war is all I have to say.

DL said...

McFearless,

I'm not saying we NEED more loopholes, only that's what we're going to get.

I'm sure, for example, that Charlie Rangel got more than a few dollars under the table.

McFearless said...

LB,

any comments on my 1:28 would be appreciated.

Open to anyone to comment of course, but I think LB is the main bond guy here.

Nic said...

Karen, I have given up trying to short gold for now. I am waiting to buy around 1080, ascending trendline from the 08 lows and 61.8fib. Unless of course that level breaks.

McFearless said...

DL,

Yep, you are probably right. It's disgusting though.

DLK said...

I'm going to heed Karen's advice, at least for a little while.

McFearless said...

I have a random question since we are all spread around the country:

How many have seen speed limit increase locally in the last 12 months?

karen said...

Ben, you mean signage increases in limits? I have not.. but then again.. i live so cal, ribboned with concrete.. 75 is the norm with signs at 65..

McFearless said...

Along with the hyperinflation I keep seeing this line on all the blogs:

"trade what you see"

I'm curious, what was it that others saw the last five minutes of last Friday?

Nic said...

No increase in Canada ... although there is a campaign underway to raise highway limit to 130kms (80mph)

McFearless said...

Karen,

Yes, that's what I mean, any 55's to 70's, etc.

DL said...

From Mish's point of view, local governments are issuing speeding tickets just to raise revenue.

bob said...

All I see around the northeast is more cops. Effectively a speed limit decrease.

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 327   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.