AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Initiated bond vigilantes into the Creditcane organization.



SPX
Shooting star day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1225.85). Holding above weekly 3LB midpoint. QE2infinity.



DXY
Hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 38.2% retrace at 80.63. Back above SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.19).



VIX
Bullish long day (but failed to confirm homing pigeon). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.54). Still hiding in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish engulfing day. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace tried to give way. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1338.80). My precious.



EURJPY
Spinning top day (could also be bullish piercing). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace at 1.1121. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1120).



JNK
Hanging man day (right as SMA(21) crossed below SMA(55)). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.30).



10YR YIELD
Bullish LONG day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Staying above SMA(144). Back above its 38.2% retrace (29.91). Making a run for its 50.0% retrace (31.86). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 29.64). BB & TG, bonds are saying bend over and pick that up.



CRB
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the Gann 2x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 295.43).




XLF
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's. Failed the test of the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).



IQI
Bearish long day (can you say BAB). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Failed its 38.2% retrace (12.20). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (11.91). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 12.66).



SILVER
Bearish engulfing day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.31). JPM playing "Black Ops" on longs.



30YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Holding above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 41.02). Ruh roh.





When keeping it real goes wrong...

28 comments:

BinT said...

From Paul Krugman's comments on his blog There Are No Deficit Hawks..

"I think many of the people who got elected month ago were not campaigning on deficit reduction. They were campaigning on spending reduction. That's what people really cared about: Reducing government spending. They do seem to have a slight preference for funding the spending with debt (and future taxes) than current taxes, but that's besides the point. The point is that people overwhelmingly (within the usual election scale) voted for lower spending.

The political left tries to misrepresent this concern about spending level as a concern about deficit. This is understandable, since the political left wants to tax and spend.

I sometimes think that the political left would be happy to hike the top marginal tax rates even if they had to completely waste the revenue to something that would have no positive impact. They are envious, they want to hurt the rich. The mobility in social order contradicts their class warfare theme, they want to stop social mobility.

...Only one of Mr. Krugman's many readers felt this was worth considering...

Anonymous said...

This is for McF, if you are out there-
you keep referring to Neely's count - based on today's action - would that be the top of the C wave?

ben22/McFear/triangle lover/Zombie Bear/Bieber Fan said...

anon, I really still need to defer specifics of Neo Wave patterns to Andy because I have not mastered elliott wave neely style yet, and this is his terminal C pattern which seems much like an ending diagonal in orthodox terms(page 37), the character of the pattern is there, normally found in moves that have gone "too far too fast" (count could sport a nice extended first wave depending on where the count is started) and always come at the termination points of larger moves.

That said, based on the way he has illustrated it, this was not necessarily the top of wave C. The top appears it is going to be a process over the next week and a few days, up and down with a lot of overlap making what might appear to be a double or triple top with about the same price levels. I'd bet on seeing a lot of triangles intra-day....pfft. He originally expected the fifth wave to truncate but we know now that didn't happen.

hope that helps

on another note

This here is on the front of the EWI home page:

Preliminary data in the silver market shows Tuesday was the third largest intraday reversal after a new 52-week price high in 40 years of free-market trading.

I don't know, we'll see, if it closes down next week that might be more meaningful, make a new 52 week and close in the red the following week and that smells like distribution.

Would I take RP's advice and short silver here.....?

uh.....no, but I've been burned in silver, so this is likely some emotion talking.

AmenRa said...

David Einhorn currently on Charlie Rose...

ben22 said...

Karen,

I know you look at the P&F's from time to time

1610 on Gold

I-Man said...

When I see Ag I see an uptrend that I want a piece of. Shorting that chart looks like a recipe for pain to I and I...

At least wait for the lower high, Bobby.

AmenRa said...

Added TYX chart.

ben22 said...

thanks Ra, I caught the last 15 minutes, got a good education.

AmenRa said...

Just to be clear, the "extension of the unemployment benefits" is an extension of the qualifying dates for the various tiers of benefits, and not additional weeks of benefits. There is no additional help for the so-called "99ers".

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/tax-negotiations-no-help-for-99ers.html

Anonymous said...

POS Watch:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BWLD
~~
talk about a hard 'Growing Season'
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ESI&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~~
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NHP&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
sometimes 'Yield' can be expensive..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Obama leaving after announcing tax cuts: Obama leaving

I-Man said...

Bucky-I lookin tuff overnight so far...

Anonymous said...

and, with all the talk of 'catfood'..

http://www.petfood-connection.com/

LSS: Costs of production to go up due to 'Regulatory [S.510] compliance'..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

un mas

http://www.petfoodindustry.com/

ibid.

I-Man said...

Hoffer is a giver.

I-Man said...

Eric Hoffer, that is.

;)

Na gwan throw off the I's anonymity and all.

AmenRa said...

AUDJPY getting slaughtered.

Anonymous said...

McF @ 830 - Thanks, that does help.

Anonymous said...

along the lines of what 72bat was mentioning, in earlier thread..

http://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/

one facet of the Industry that is growing out of (the effects of) IndustrialpHoods..

AAIP

ben22 said...

From the HH letter:

"Keen.......describing why the Fed's intial dalliance with $2trn was insufficient. Defining demand, or total spending in the economy, as nominal GDP plus the change in gross public and private sector debt, total spending in the US shrunk from $18.2trn in the year concluding in the summer of 2007 to just $13.9trn this year. Effectively, the US economy has spent $4.3trn less on the purchase of goods, services and assets despite the rise in gross debt from $47.5 trn to $52trn. In other words, monetary and fiscal accommodation have been overwhelmed by the 10% contraction (much of it involuntary and taking the form of default) in the private sector's debt to GDP ratio from its peak of 3x in early 2009."

of course earlier in the article he points out that this ratio is still today elevated by historic standards, 2x the 1960's and 3x the 50's.

karen said...

ben, 1680 has been Kenny's number since the early 2000's.. (Kenny is JES's technician extraordinaire.. ) I shoulda stayed 100% unitil then.. oh, well! the newbies haven't endured any trauma yet.. their test is coming. of that, i have no doubt. only the believers will be buying in the 900s..

AmenRa said...

I see 10yr getting up to 3.2%. BB & TG must be drinking four loko tonight.

wunsacon said...

>> I sometimes think that the political left would be happy to hike the top marginal tax rates even if they had to completely waste the revenue to something that would have no positive impact. They are envious, they want to hurt the rich. The mobility in social order contradicts their class warfare theme, they want to stop social mobility.

Bruce, we want the "rich" to share the bounty they're collecting not simply from their own effort but from the LEVERAGE that a stable society provides after 6,000 years of generations of human scientists building what we have today.

Put Steve Jobs 20 years back in time and he's a mechanic's son. Who knows where he'd end up. But, it probably wouldn't be a billionaire. And Bill Gates would not be (anywhere near) where he is today without his rich parents' connections.

As for "social mobility", go look up the US's Gini index and compare it to higher-tax countries.

wunsacon said...

>> They are envious, they want to hurt the rich.

Yes, we're envious, as paupers are of kings. Why do you have a problem with that?

wunsacon said...

>> They do seem to have a slight preference for funding the spending with debt (and future taxes) than current taxes, but that's besides the point.

It's not beside the point. It is the point. And GOP voters should feel betrayed by this latest "compromise", because it's more can-kicking.

And the only way to fund the continued deficit spending is to monetize it. And how is it monetized? Ben isn't dropping the money from a helicopter. He buys Treasuries issued to cover government spending. That money goes to the overpaid overt employees and quasi-employees in the FIRE industry. GOP voters can't be accepting of that. (Yes, some are. Those people vote for Sarah Palin. No talking sense to them anyway.)

AmenRa said...

Before I crash the 10yr is now at 3.24% and rising.

wunsacon said...

How high's the mortgage rate, Momma?

3.24% and rising.

CV said...

new thread

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.