Morning Audibles - 12.08.10

It was 20 30 years ago today... (may I introduce to you, the act you've known for all these years/With a Little Help From My Friends)...



LENNON WITH HOWARD COSELL (MNF 12/09/1974)

ANNOUNCED BY HOWARD COSELL (12/08/80)


MIND GAMES

INSTANT KARMA

WHATEVER GETS YOU THRU THE NIGHT

IMAGINE


211 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 211   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

Imagine there's no countries...

China to award own peace prize ahead of Nobel award

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101208/wl_nm/us_china_nobel_confucius

"BEIJING (Reuters) – China will award its answer to the Nobel Peace Prize a day before it is bestowed upon jailed Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, giving the "Confucius Peace Prize" to former Taiwan vice-president Lien Chan.

China was furious after Liu won the Nobel Peace Prize in October, saying it was an "obscenity" that it was given to a man it considers a subversive and a criminal.

The newly created Confucius prize, named after the ancient Chinese philosopher the Communist Party has recently co-opted as its own, was suggested in an opinion piece in the popular tabloid the Global Times three weeks ago.

"It is a kind of peaceful response to the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize and ... explains the Chinese people's views of peace," organizers said in an emailed statement Wednesday.

The award ceremony will take place in Beijing Thursday, the day before Liu is formally awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo. Neither he nor his wife have been allowed by the Chinese government to go to Oslo. Liu's wife has been put under house arrest."

CV said...

Imagine there's no bankers (or freedom of speech)...

WikiLeaks founder arrested; payments stopped

http://www.newsday.com/business/technology/wikileaks-founder-arrested-payments-stopped-1.2522892?qr=1

LONDON (AP) -- Visa says it has suspended all payments to WikiLeaks pending an investigation of the organization's business.

Visa's decision is a powerful blow to the loosely knit organization, which relies on online donations to fund its operations.

Popular online payment company PayPal, Inc. has already severed its links with WikiLeaks. Visa's decision to pull the plug on WikiLeaks leaves the website with one fewer source of revenue.

Swiss authorities closed Assange's new Swiss bank account Monday.

CV said...

Imagine there's no gold (in YOUR safe deposit box)...

Get your gold out of the banking system, Rickards tells King World News


http://gata.org/node/9392

Interviewed by King World News, market analyst and scholar Jim Rickards of Omnis Inc. says he knows of a gold investor who recently had to struggle for a month with a Swiss bank to arrange return of his gold -- not a futures contract receipt but real gold that had been put on deposit at the bank. Only the gold owner's threat to restore to legal action and the news media pried the gold loose, Rickards says. He concludes that the bank didn't have the gold it should have had and that this shorting is endemic to the Western banking system. He advises gold investors to use "private non-bank storage" for their gold to get it outside the banking system and expects that at some point governments may seek to freeze gold in the banking system.

CV said...

Imagine there's no steepening...

As The Treasury Curve Pancakes Again, Bank Profitability Goes Out Of The Window (Making The Curve Flatter Still)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-curve-pancakes-again-bank-profitability-goes-out-window-making-curve-flatter-still

The 10s30s has collapsed by almost a quarter from a high of 160 bps to 124 bps. That said, in our opinion, the curve has much more flattening to undergo still: after all virtually the entire world was long the 10 Year, and short the 30 Year, expecting that Brian Sack would be able to maintain at least the belly, if not the long-end. To everyone chagrin, groupthink has once again proven to be a disastrous trade.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the 10s30s was trading sub 100 bps as recently as this summer, which implies that technicals are favorable. And lastly, the drubbing in the curve means that that mythical bank profitability (thank you Dick Bove) is once again delayed, which also means that the broader economic prospects are deteriorating, making QE3 for Long End Treasurys (those securities that are not going to be monetized municipal bonds) very likely to be purchased next as the Fed realizes that it will have no option but to buy much more of the 30Y as it will already be full to the gills with all other sections of the curve. Bottom line: we expect the flattening to persist and in fact accelerate once the always late CNBC pundit crowd realizes that a 23% flattening in the curve (not to mention record low market volume) means that bank Q4 EPS are once again going to suck."

CV said...

Imagine there's no bulltards...

2003 Versus 2009 Rallies (2005 as the Focus)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/2003-versus-2009-rallies/

Hilarious comment section... Tools of the world unite...

CV said...

Imagine there's NO JOBS...

It's EASY if you try...

CV said...

and now... a message from our sponsors...

I'd like to teach A PIG to sing...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2QZW1mexhQ

Jennifer said...

http://www.thedocument.com/stock_market_blog/2010/20101207_running_the_stops.cfm

From Doc -- posted mid-day yesterday but I didn't catch it until late last night, thought it was good.

ben22 said...

nothing new here but a good interview in case didn't see it last night:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11333

Anonymous said...

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/wildbankers.php

thought this was useful..

AAIP

karen said...

(Amazing, amazing tribute/posts this morning, CV.. thank you!)

good morning! first thing i wanna point out is the gld:uup chart !!!

Anonymous said...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_CR&t=&a=&w=&v=d3

that's a Major League 'double-top' @~320, no?

AAIP

AmenRa said...

That's 261 bps in TWO DAYS on the 10yr. Currently at 3.202%. Ouch.

Anonymous said...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_INX

that ~1225-level is, still, a major problem, yes?

ibid.

AmenRa said...

AAIP

Above zero is a major problem.

mcHAPPY said...

http://mobile.cnbc.com/us_news/40564759

"Parsons said allowing Citi to fail previously or in the future would be akin to having "the heart, the pump of the economic system fail because then everybody else dies."

"It's probably the most important private financial institution for maintaining our economic strength and presence around the world. You can't let an institution like that go down," he said.

Some 95 percent of the Fortune 500 companies are clients of Citi, he added."

So this is what has become of capitalism? Welcome to the USSA people.

Whatever happened to let the bank go bankrupt and the clients move to companies that are profitable and/or in operation?

I guess I am just an idealist now.

karen said...

anyone watch Jon Stewart skewering BB ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/america-laughs-jon-stewart-explains-how-ben-bernanke-robbing-it-blind

karen said...

JJC ($copper, Ben!) up!! how startling : )

ACQ will be something to watch..

McFearless said...

karen, now there is a giant volume bar on the right shoulder on the GLD:UUP chart lets see as we approach mid month if that neckline gets busted.....looking good so far.

last night you said only the true believers will be buying at 900, I think you are right, there are too many Armchair Generals in gold, I hope to be in the mix at 900 building a bigger and bigger position in money

CV said...

JJC ($copper, Ben!) up!!

nickels bitchez!

CV said...

5 straight days of "lows" in the 20's here on the East Coast...

Good thing we all painted out roofs WHITE to reflect all the heat away and stop global warming...

CV said...

It's MUCH better to have the sun beating down on LEAD all day long and seeping that into the atmosphere!

CV said...

Here's a money making/deficit busting idea...

Cigarette-Smuggling Gangs Sap Lithuania Budget, Spark Crackdown

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-07/cigarette-smuggling-gangs-targeted-by-lithuania-in-struggle-to-cut-deficit.html

I think Obama needs to appoint a CZAR of scuba diving tobacco police (so that never happens here)...

CV said...

Maybe a whole new branch of government could be created...

They could use the $12 billion "profit" from the sale of Citi stock (since we all KNOW it's never going to be returned to the taxpayers)...

About $12 billion per job... That about matches this administrations agenda...

karen said...

$gaso fell a tiny bit more yesterday..

karen said...

GLD could bounce at 132-133.. and the neckline on the gld:uup is about 5.70.. two critical areas to watch..

because, seriously, if gold doesn't break down and hurt a few people.. we better get on that train to the next stop.

karen said...

just visited GovMo and guess what I found?? a triangle!

Ben22 said...

one of the perverse things about all of this struck me yesterday watching the DE video, he talked right at the end about when he realized that the Fed was so intently focused on equity markets stating that he felt as though they had been more concerned with the next 50 point move than the average hedge fund manager

so what's sad in all of this is that regular peeps, what we might call Johnyee, they have in a large way become big Fed Watchers, way out of their element and very likely to get snowed as a result, I don't think the publics obsession with the Fed is healthy, iow.

karen said...

I accidentally found a new index, $bix.. naturally it has a bullish p&f objective of 178.

karen said...

In a story Monday about Richmond Federal Reserve Bank
President Jeffrey Lacker’s remarks to reporters following a speech, the
following quote is correct, “I don’t think there’s too much emphasis on
jobs just yet. But at this point in the recovery and going forward the
next couple of years it’s a risk that we might get drawn into trying to
push employment down faster than it’s really capable of falling.”

AmenRa said...

Ben

That caught me by surprise when he said that. It's no different than the fact the Fed follows the 3 month for Fed Funds Rate.

karen said...

Beware December Moves…
By Jamie Coleman || December 8, 2010 at 15:08 GMT

We’ve been warning for weeks that December markets can be very punishing and so far we’ve been proven correct.
Look no further than the US bond market, which has been falling like a stone in recent days.
The last two Decembers have seen massive moves, in opposite directions, with major bottom in yields right after the turn of 2008 into 2009 and a top in 2009 into 2010…
Currencies have been extremely volatile in December as well, largely moving in sync with yields.
They are on the rise again, with the 10-year note now at 3.236%.
This suggests the greenback could be strong for the balance of the month but could peak for a time early in the New Year…

karen said...

Ben, thanks for making that comment.. I didn't watch my <3 DE.. and I am fascinated with that tidbit about the Fed obsessing with the market... and you are probably right..but this is deja vu.. before the last crash, i was at a small dinner party with some wealthy neighbors and they were completely blasé about the economic downturn affecting the markets with full faith and conviction in the Fed.. and yes, they got hurt big time..

karen said...

Is everyone with bated breath?! (or, just me : )

crude inventories coming up!!

AmenRa said...

300 bps increase on the 10yr in two days.

karen said...

yikes on GLD! tagged 134 so far.. let the margin calls begin!

karen said...

agq down 10pts from the high.

karen said...

gold.. hitting stops.. imagine that..

AmenRa said...

I have a feeling we'll hit 3.3% by the auction (if not higher).

karen said...

big news: For the first time in 70 years, Mexico will allow private oil production, ending the monopoly held by state firm PEMEX, according to CNBC.
http://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-to-allow-private-oil-drilling-2010-12

karen said...

there is a very imperfect rev h&s in dzz... i'm going with it for now because of the fed has so distorted the market.. the neckline is way up there at around 9ish..

Ben22 said...

Karen, Ra,

Yes!, to push this out further, why it's so dangerous is because people are watching the Fed?


because we (they) should be watching the MARKETS

The Fed hardly has any of our backs, people are so stooopid....it's a private bank!!!!!

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/volatility-chasing-goes-gold-precious-metals-drop-year-end-profit-taking-rumor

karen said...

fantastic read!

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/12/7/52348747-reasons-to-call-it-a-career.html

karen said...

check out yoku! that's an ipo that puts GovMo to shame.

Matthew said...

MCD getting destroyed today. The explanation is that growth was too slow, partly because of the dollar.

I wonder which other companies didn't hedge the right way.

Matthew said...

Man, if leftback is still in the compression trade, he's making a killing the last two days.

karen said...

http://vsinvestor.com/2010/12/when-2-ipos-nearly-double-yoku-dang-amzn-goog.html

karen said...

for silver longs:

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/charting-the-rally-to-30-in-silver-and-slv-weekly-and-daily/

CV said...

SLV would finally be on a 3lb daily reversal...

But the day isn't done yet...

That just goes to show how far it skyrocketed...

I-Man said...

BTD.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen:

With DST I didn't get home before dark to take some pictures for you. But I did take this picture this morning of the sunrise as it was 12 degrees on my east porch.

Let me catch up a few minutes and I'll share some thoughts with you bubbas and bubbettes.

BinT

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The wind blew most of the inch of snow away...if more falls it will stick now that it is this cold.

karen said...

beautiful, bruce! and i'll continue to look forward to seeing snow.. you have to have a white christmas this year.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/12/foodstamp-usage-nearing-1-in-7.html

karen said...

on the food stamp issue.. that must explain the rise in the xrt.. (sorry for the sarcasm.)

Jennifer said...

I man -- me too. So far so good.

karen said...

30 Bernanke Quotes That Are So Absurd You Won’t Know Whether To Laugh Or Cry

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-quotes-2010-12#ixzz17XMrcpxe

karen said...

and that is the man that has your back, LOL.

karen said...

pls note the FXA on a trend chart.. as goes FXA, goes $spx. and that is a pretty h&s...

karen said...

way to go Fed! "A $500 billion pool of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, wrapped in the 4% coupon stack on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, is no longer available for refinancing due to rising interest rates."

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/12/08/refinancing-opportunity-for-500-billion-mortgage-pool-wiped-out-deutsche-bank

karen said...

lqd dumped again today.. broke its neck/line.

so even tho hyg is down.. the hyg:lqd is, well, off the chart.. which normally would indicate market support/strength. however, present distortions accounted for, i think not.

Ben22 said...

karen,

this one is from 10/31/07, seems he's changed his mind:

Image: Wikimedia Commons

"It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

72bat said...

meh -
thanks for the link to BANKERS GONE WILD! a good read, but surprised at
"Because of the earlier disasters with 20 year charters, the Federal Reserve was granted a 100 year charter due to expire in 2013. A later Congress amended the Federal Reserve act to make the charter permanent."
i thot the charter expired in 2013 and a quick web search turned up conflicting answers: yes, no and maybe.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111531/bond-vigilantes-may-thwart-tax-deal?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Bond Vigilantes May Thwart Tax Deal


...Exactly. It appears to this hobbyist in matters economic that the tipping point has been reached. I just think in the back of everyone's mind is this nagging doubt that US rates should be this low.

karen said...

alaidi

told cnbc rising yields push bulk of risk aversion flows into $USDX as yen unable to secure them.HansRedecker said thers USD shortage

karen said...

a free/public Jeff Cooper:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeff-cooper-central-banking-central-planing/12/8/2010/id/31573

karen said...

PS! let that video add play on Minyanville.. "I sell stuff to buy more stuff!"

72bat said...

k -
from bernanke quotes
"The truth is that the incompetence that Bernanke has displayed over the past few years makes the Cincinnati Bengals look like a model of excellence."
now THAT is a damning comparison and all too true.
the bengals, "we make sow ears out of silk purses, finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.""

CV said...

@72bat

Here's how you revoke the Fed's charter... You apparently need a "Tsar" for it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwlNPhn64TA&feature=related

CV said...

@72

The Bernank & The Bengals theme/fight song...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gw0YKg07Zz0

prosciutto gristle said...

Worst article/obituary intro EVER:

"We all have a terminal illness, except those who get hit by a bus, but few have suffered more in the public eye than Elizabeth Edwards."

http://news.yahoo.com/s//dailybeast/20101207/ts_dailybeast/11313_elizabethedwardsstopscancertreatmentassemblesherfamily_1/

karen said...

cooper: From this point on, based on my interpretation of the cycles and the patterns, I would not be long at all on trade below 1200 S&P.

karen said...

Prosciutto.. that was a very odd opening.. where was the editor on that one??

CV said...

cv's view on SLV

new chart in thread

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/12/08/report-tough-times-far-states/?test=latestnews

Report: Tough times far from over for states

"States have been able to make up the shortfalls with a combination of federal aid, including stimulus funds, borrowing, selling assets, raiding special funds and cuts in such services as day care subsidies and police.

But opportunities to repeat those strategies are getting harder to find.

That prospect has some legislators, even Republicans, discussing tax increases.

"There's only so much you can cut before you get to what I call essential services that need to be provided by the state," said state Sen. Bill Raggio, a Reno, Nev., Republican whose 28-year tenure makes him the longest-serving legislator in state history."

...this could have people leaving Nevada so fast it would be a desert...no, wait.....

...They are certainly moving in to east Tennessee...land prices here are apparently rising. (Not homes already on the market..)

CV said...

@karen

"that was a very odd opening.. where was the editor on that one??"

Answer:
off running a blog rip-off service...

karen said...

"Meanwhile, check out the scene at PIMCO, whose flagship total return fund fell nearly 1% yesterday (it will be whacked again today, when it prices), and is now at levels in early August. Beautifully it topped on November 4, the day after QE was announced."

http://www.businessinsider.com/munis-crushed-again-while-bond-collapse-pushes-pimcos-big-fund-to-levels-from-early-august-2010-12#ixzz17XY3Fw8M

CV said...

@Bruce

Nevada huh?

Well... I guess they can't troll out the tried & true "let's legalize gambling" trick... (Cause they've already done it...

you know... for the KIDS & the SCHOOLS & all...

72bat said...

cv -
dead-on
btw, your near-instant responses would seem to indicate near-eidetic recall.

karen said...

copper back to its highs.. gold standing firm.. commodities and indices still in risk on, correlation, and total conviction mode despite rising yields..

something will have to give.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

I read about the severity of the housing crisis in Nevada, and now these boys are talking about raising taxes.

...I think eventually less spending will be the option people, including elected representatives, realize has to occur. But it looks like the SOS is going to hang on as long as it can.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Gas prices in San Francisco, I see this morning, are almost a buck a gallon higher than Tennessee. I hope the state tax on gasoline helps the new governor with his 30% deficit.

CV said...

@72

Yeah... & if you drop toothpicks on the floor, I can tell you how many of them there are...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqbXPfaN_VM

AmenRa said...

This 10yr auction will cost the Treasury at least 600 bps more than the last auction.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Amen:

It just looks like with the announcement of QEII, that Bernanke just saddled the camel's back toooo much. It appears the interest rate genie is out of the bottle.

karen said...

i am having a fit.. at least once a day my computer locks up and I have to restart it.. anyway.. i was trying to post this article of great interest on Elle MacPherson!

http://www.businessinsider.com/elle-macpherson-wins-payout-in-suit-against-icelandic-bank-kaupthing-2010-12

karen said...

funny tweets:

fundmyfund
$YOKU $35M revenue, $25M loss but labeled "YOUTUBE of CHINA" so stratosphereic value

zerohedge
One can already see the headlines: "From Dang Dang to Bang Bang..."

AmenRa said...

Bruce

Now I'm wondering if they'll push the 30yr to 4.5% (given) or greater by tomorrows auction.

karen said...

bruce, i think it was the 60 MIN QE3 combined with GOVERNMENT STIMULUS.. talk about spending more than you take in.. the LENDER just informed the BORROWER where to shove it.. or, not really wanting to share my crude post at TBP last week here, but it was oh so appropriate about the BVs showing BB about same sex sex. (i should have added penitentiary style.)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Amen:

I hope so. My reasoning is that this is the one aspect of fiscal sanity I see in the market right now. The elderly have been crucified...and I very much don't like it.

McFearless said...

I couldn't disagree more that this is a sea change in fixed income, a correction certainly, something more ominous, I'm extremly hesitant with that view.

The article linked above starts by talking about munis which reveals the authors lack of market understanding, it's extremely common this time of year for there to be supply demand issues in the muni space but I see no mention of this in the article. I don't need to be anecdotal in stating I think big money will still be looking for muni purchases in the new year, I heard directly from the one's that will be doing it at BlackRock about two weeks ago.

what's mostly dangerous about this discussion though is that people keep talking about "the bond market" as if HY, Corp, and government bonds are the same market. apples and oreos comparisons going on there.

karen said...

hey, the ten has to be headed to 4.. and may make a new high.. a la the indices! everything else made new highs.. $tran, $wilsh, $indu, $spx, $compq... why not?!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/08/autos/electric_car_glut/index.htm

Electric cars flooding the market in 2012

"From General Motors (GM) to Honda, almost every major automaker -- and even some not-so-major ones -- plans to have at least one plug-in car on the market by the end of 2012. Toyota alone will have three, including the Rav4 EV SUV AND THE PRIUS PLUG-IN."

...Read it here first...the first obituary of the Volt. Yes, the Prius remark has been capitalized to show the cause of death...

karen said...

ben, ben, ben.. it may be common for there to be supply- demand issues this time of year.. but not so common for states to be insolvent..

and, yes, there will be buyers for muni's on the TO BIG TO FAIL theme and the TOTAL CONVICTION that they will be back-stopped by the Fed/Uncle Sam..

all we can do is watch the charts.. see what the BVs (probably China) has to say about our crack binge.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Christmas lunch...for the entire mine...back in a few...

CV said...

"From General Motors (GM) to Honda, almost every major automaker -- and even some not-so-major ones -- plans to have at least one plug-in car on the market by the end of 2012."

---

The average North American car contains about 23 kilograms (51 pounds) of copper, while an electric car uses about 75 kilograms...

3x the amount of copper!

Nickles bitchez!

karen said...

that gld:uup chart looks great on a weekly too. so we should know by friday.

i got sick today looking at the AEM chart.. i owned tens of thousands of shares around $11-16 at one time..

AmenRa said...

Karen

BB should worry less about the S&P and more about his supply of S.O.A.R.

karen said...

?? Solution Oriented Asset Reliability

karen said...

Simulation Of Airlift Resources ?

Special Operations Assault Rifle ?

Submarine Operations Analysis Report ?

karen said...

important: http://www.accuracy.org/newsrelease.php?articleId=2404

As part of their attempt to blacken WikiLeaks and Assange, pundit commentary over the weekend has tried to portray Assange's exposure of classified materials as very different from -- and far less laudable than -- what Daniel Ellsberg did in releasing the Pentagon Papers in 1971. Ellsberg strongly rejects the mantra "Pentagon Papers good; WikiLeaks material bad." He continues: "That's just a cover for people who don't want to admit that they oppose any and all exposure of even the most misguided, secretive foreign policy. The truth is that EVERY attack now made on WikiLeaks and Julian Assange was made against me and the release of the Pentagon Papers at the time."

AmenRa said...

Karen

Soap On A Rope ;-)

CV said...

@karen

The difference between Wiki Leaks and the Pentagon Papers is "the media" & "the administration"...

In 1971 - That "facist" Nixon was PORUS = anything hinting of "secrecy" in government is BAD

Now - The "messiah" Obama is POTUS = anything hinting of "secrecy" anywhere ought to be subdued because it's just an attempt to discredit the government that all liberal media types want...

karen said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/08/opinion/08friedman.html?_r=1

" We don’t seem to realize: We’re in a hole and still digging. "

karen said...

BloombergNow - Mortgage Applications in U.S. Fall as Refinancing Declines http://ow.ly/3lRlQ

CV said...

The wall streeter who blogs when he's not shopping...

Thinly veiling the notion that if you were an "omniscient/all seer" like he... You'd have bought all the lows and sold all the highs...

Why don't you just open your book and prove your greatness to us TWSWBWHNS...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/buy-hold-vs-trend/#comments

No wonder BR let's Harry Wanger post...

He IS fucking Harry Wanger!

karen said...

well, i sold one clothing item on ebay after lowing the price.. have just lowered the price on this other item for the second time.. and will list another dress by a different designer.. i was washing/polishing silver last night and mulling the sale of some of that as well..

CV said...

The "MAGIC"...

Oh yes... The "magic"...

CV said...

@karen

I'll take the silver off your hands at $18 and ounce... (that's for .999)...

karen said...

CV, look at this chart.. anything strike you about the last 3 years? a familiar, all to common pattern/shape/bust...

AmenRa said...

3.3% 10yr...check
4.5% 30yr...check
Bulk purchase of Depends by Bernanke...check

karen said...

http://www.donfishback.com/blog/2010/12/08/global-rise-in-implied-correlation/

sorry, forgot the chart.

karen said...

my soon-to-be ex, but FE partner, was chatting with me about Juniper this morning.. so I ran a few charts.. and finally got out to the IPO.. yeah.. buying that at the high you are still 200 pts underwater.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/

Ireland's Austerity Budget Unlikely to Avoid Default

...So? This is new thinking?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Aman:

I wonder what kind of horse a bond vigilate rides?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

typing errors are my hobby...

McFearless said...

Karen,

indeed my post was not an endorsement to buy muni bonds, in fact I'd tell folks to run away from them, however, that article used that as the first example, thus my mention of the danger of lumping everything into....."the bond market"

but no matter, I've been hearing about bond vigilanties and the imminent collapse in bonds for 4 years now, government bonds will likely have an epic collapse, afte deflation has run it's course, but that party just started.....

karen said...

"Fraud As a Business Model", the slides from Tavakoli's presentation delivered today to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's Supervision Summit.

http://market-ticker.org/post=174392

karen said...

oh, ben.. i just like the pictures (charts) in the business insider links : )

McFearless said...

and speaking of credit, a few comments on the consumer credit report details yesterday vs. the headline that credit expanded:

1. Revolving credit dropped 5.6 billion for the month, this is the 26th consecutive drop in revolving credit, this supports the data I copied from HH letter on the massive drop in spending that has occured over the last 18 months.

2. Virtually the entire increase in this months report was due to the $31.9 billion increase in Federal Government debt used to fund student loans. I dont' know if any of you have kids but you can't get a student loan anymore from a bank. Subtract this figure out and it ends up a 28 billion contraction in consumer credit for the month.

Think this trend might be a problem?

Thus far there has also been much debate on this report and what is going on with auto's, I might point out the data I posted here just last week that showed a big increase this year in sub-prime auto loans, by september of this year issuers had sold 4.4 billion of bonds tied to subprime auto loans, more than double the amount arranged in 2009, securities linked to loans to consumers with credit considered subprime account for 20% of asset-backed auto debt issuance this year, double the share in 2008 and 2009.

How many people can service this debt, how many that are subprime that can do it? Please review the household debt to M2 ratio in HH's letter....

This isn't "good" that this is expanding, it's ALL ABOUT incremental yield as everyone is desperate for it.

....I know we all want to be "traders" but this stuff shouldn't be ignored, deflation remains the 1,618 pound monkey in the room.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I was referring to Bruce's yahoo finance link on bonds in particular.

CV said...

@karen

What CV sees (on that chart)... If you want my opinion... is...

There were TWO big volatility spikes in the past decade...

- March 2003
- March 2009

That's 6 years...

6 x .618 = 3.708 (years)

.708 of a 12 month year = 8.5 months

3 years/8.5 months + Mid March 2009 = December 2012

---

I'd rather prepare SLOWLY and SYSTEMATICALLY for the next bout of volatility that one "might" anticipate in the run-up to that timeframe...

But that's probably not the answer you were looking for...

AmenRa said...

HY 3.34% or 704 bps higher than the last auction. Damn.

CV said...

@Bruce

"I wonder what kind of horse a bond vigilate rides?"

Well regardless... I'll bet "the Bernank" is telling him "eff you & the horse you rode in on"...

karen said...

Wicked Thin Out There
By Jamie Coleman || December 8, 2010 at 18:15 GMT

The dollar rallies yesterday as rates rose on a poor three-year note auction and today it is falling as prices in the secondary market rally and yields fall after the 10-year auction.
EUR/USD rallied into the 1.3250s on light volume as the yields dipped after the auction.
Given the huge rise in yields today the surprise to me is that the dollar is not even stronger than it is. There does seem to be some significant buying on dips today which suggests to me that there is the potential for a squeeze higher…
1.3270/90 is resistance on rallies near-term. Small stops are above both levels.
We now trade at 1.3250.

CV said...

look at the 5 min TBT candles...

Andy T said...

Christmas Parties last night. Was out till 3AM again. I'm getting too old for this stuff....

Good clips today Chet.

Sort of an interesting day with Gold and Bonds gettting hammered and the stocks not doing much.

karen said...

ben can you please square this:

1. Revolving credit dropped 5.6 billion for the month, this is the 26th consecutive drop in revolving credit, this supports the data I copied from HH letter on the massive drop in spending that has occured over the last 18 months.

with the rise in the XRT? please..

and thanks for those comments..

karen said...

Andy, the day isn't over. Nor is the week.. 3AM?!

karen said...

CV.. actually, i preferred your view on that chart. I'll have to ask what you see more often : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

1 month ago the ten year was 2.56, now its 3.3.

I watched the video of Schiff, as I am sure most of you did, who argues that since China has gone to short term instruments, they don't have to have a buyers strike, they just let the short term bonds mature without replacing them.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^tnx;range=1m;indicator=ke_it+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

..it amazes me, this bond action with Bernanke doing all he can to stop it. Depends, indeed.....

McFearless said...

karen!

of course I can square it

the stock market is not the economy!

XRT is trading off a net perception of the future, this perception, as DE so aplty put it to Charlie Rose, is a result of a lot of confusion, misinformation, and emotion swirling around to make "the market". The market is not comprised of informed decisions but of a lot of confusion.

XRT is above it's high in 2007, the consumer is hardly stronger today than they were then, after millions of net jobs lost and trillions in net "assets" destroyed and so I think it's fair to conclude that it's price is based on perception rather than a current reality. The stock price does not reflect the state of the consumer today because markets just aren't efficient. Just like when C was at $50 in 2007 yet housing had started to deteriorate nearly two years prior.

the more things change the more they stay the same

karen said...

This is beyond maddening.. John E. getting raped twice.. uh, scratch that.. repeatedly, by Uncle.

AIG, Treasury planning big stock offering:
1:28 PM ET 12/8/10 |SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American International Group Inc. and the U.S. Treasury are planning a large stock offering in the coming year, according to media reports Wednesday, citing sources close to the matter. The size of the offering, which is expected to take place in the first half of 2011, is estimated at up to $10 billion by Reuters and possibly as high as $17 billion according to The Wall Street Journal. The offering reportedly could reduce the Treasury's stake in AIG by up to 20 percentage points. Currently, the Treasury owns about 80% of AIG and has previously announced plans that could bring that stake up to 92.1%.

karen said...

thank you, Ben! I needed that slap in the face to return to my senses.. i've got it now.. JBTFD.

McFearless said...

oh, and btw, another thing I wanted to post about in that DE video was his description of the Fed the day he said he realized they were "all about stocks"

if you just listen to his description it should be entirely clear that the fed MUST react at every turn, they can never ever be leaders and therefore they can't control trend, they can try and I think they can disrupt trend for a period of time, but they can't ever completely control it.

QE2 for example relies fully on everyone elses ultimate reaction to it (they must borrow, banks must lend more) the stock market going up is not enough as it only benefits the few, mostly all of the market is owned by the 1% ers, so the Fed is really in control of nothing, they try and put conditions in place (which so far have backfired) and then they just "hope" for the best.

They know this so well in fact that they are willing to take major action on nothing more than rumor that could be threatening, that's the story DE told.....he's way smarter than me.

karen said...

rolling my eyes: tradefast
estimates suggest that a one dollar increase in equity wealth boosts household consumption by 4 cents - households own $10 trillion equities

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking I'm w/ MackieFear, re: USTreas Rates--I think we're seeing the near-term top in Rates..

also, AR, there are 100bps in a 'percentage point', yes?

hyp. 3/4% = 75 bps, not 750 bps, no?

AAIP

karen said...

"in the new world order $NFLX buys out $AAPL and $YOKU consolidates $BIDU and $GOOG in joint purchase."

AmenRa said...

AAIP

Sorry. I was using TNX and not percentage.

karen said...

"On a side note, each tick up in yield means the value of all those treasury bonds smoldering on the fed balance sheet falls - incurring losses. But no worries - Ben says it is not the taxpayer's money."

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/12/ten-year-us-treasuries-touch-330.html

karen said...

he believes in the all powerful Fed: tradefast

i am betting (paper trade) that we are at the high end of the trading range for ten year treasury yields - fed will fight moves above 3.25%

Anonymous said...

McB,

IIRC, Socionomics calls for a decrease in the popularity of the NBA..

Where can I find such an article?
~~
By BRIAN MAHONEY
AP Basketball Writer

(AP:NEW YORK) The NBA players association has told its members that the league has not moved off its original negotiating position, and reiterated to them it would not accept a hard salary cap or the massive salary rollbacks being sought.

The union has sent players an audio podcast and mailings that detail the owners' proposal for a new collective bargaining agreement, along with the items in its counterproposal, a person with knowledge of its contents told The Associated Press on Wednesday. The person requested anonymity because the contents were not made public.

The players rejected the league's initial proposal during All-Star weekend in February and delivered their own on July 1, one which the person said was "designed to move the negotiations forward and the union's intent was to come up with a proposal that addresses the concerns of both sides."

It even offers to negotiate a reduction in the players' guarantee of 57 percent of basketball revenues, which Commissioner David Stern has said is a central issue in the negotiations.

Stern said it was too similar to the current system and it was rejected, and both sides say there has been little progress since. Union executive director Billy Hunter said last month he was "99 percent sure" there would be a lockout when the CBA expires June 30, 2011.
...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897486841800

as ex. of, at least, one add'l nail being hammered in..

AAIP

McFearless said...

guys, throwing some more fundies out there, I've done my trading for the day, lol


1. private sector has experienced 0 wage increase in about a decade, I just saw a study the other day that also showed that most retail investors got an average annual return of around 2.5-3% per year from 1980-1999.

2. if this is the case, which I believe it is, this idea that stocks going up leads to consumer spending, WTF....how does this make any sense at all

first of all, if the income isn't there and there certainly aren't wage increases going on and as all of you are pointing out, look at commodity prices etc, the only way that increases discretionary spending is if the net is selling the stocks right away to realize profits right? So, I'll just throw out there that this is not at all practical to assume it's "that easy" the vast majority of people are saving only to a 401k or some other qualified plan, they don't have a taxable account with much money at all in it, so even if they make a 10% gain in the 401k after they sell, make a w/drawal and then pay the ordinary income tax on the distribution, how much are they left with to spend given how small most people's portfolios are.....could it possibly be meaningful. this is the problem, none of the QE money is turning into revolving income....it's going up in smoke because of the debt overhang....if they are under 59 1/2 then they pay a penalty on top of the tax very likely negating any gain they had in the account prior to taking the distribution.

second, demographics of this country reveal a baby boomer generation that is under saved and overleveraged, certainly they could spend any gains in stocks, but considering it's likely they've got no gains for a decade, it's highly likely that a smaller amount of people are willing to spend these "gains"

I know you all get this but this trickle down economic feedback loop idea is just the dumbest thing I've heard of in quite a while.

rant off....

karen said...

a new trading method i'm considering.. type in a symbol.. i mean make it up until you hit pay dirt.. then, based on the chart alone, jbtfd.

McFearless said...

Mark,

I'm going to scan that paper I mentioned for you soon, I'll see if I can dig up the socionomic paper where they talk about the NBA

a bull market sport where we aim for lofty goals higher than ourselves, (a hoop that is above us)a sport that involves unity and teamwork, which are hallmarks of bull markets, whereas bear markets show groups splinter off and become more isolated, new, radical groups emerge (see the Tea Party)

look how the persona of LeBron James has been dismantled in a few short months....

golf is also a bull market sport....tiger woods anyone?

they've made this claim about several sports while stating that bear market sports will continue to thrive and new bear market sports will emerge, back in 03 they forecast that some form of violent boxing would be extremely popular as the bear market went forward....enter the birth of MMA.

Anonymous said...

AR,

I hear ya, like here:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CBOT_ZB.H11.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d1

the 30-yr 'tract was, really, recently @~128, now under ~122 (600 bps (?))

121.65625 -0.84375 (-0.69%)

AAIP

McFearless said...

and, one more thing on bonds, assuming we are in deflation, the real return on bonds is extremely attractive, again, this isn't going to last forever, no trends do, but I'm really hesitant given the fundamental backdrop that the seemingly impossible with bonds isn't exactly what's going to occur

call me gary schilling

which, btw, anyone read his book that's out, the age of deleverging, I almost picked it up on AMZN but passed.....

karen said...

Love this! Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Thomas Petrie, vice chairman of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, discusses the outlook for crude oil prices. Petrie, speaking with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness," also discusses offshore drilling, merger and acquisition activity, and energy legislation

http://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg#p/u/3/R5gW8s-a9vc

karen said...

I want this guy's dope! Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The worst is over for the U.S. housing market and a rebound will gain momentum in 2012, according to Douglas Yearley, chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc.

“The recovery is here to stay,” Yearley, whose company is the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, said in an interview yesterday at Bloomberg’s headquarters office in New York. “I think 2011 will be an improving year, but I think 2012 will be a big year for us.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMVBJ5h43HGo

karen said...

interesting.. the new norm is spx unchanged: (video)

http://www.optionmonster.com/drj_blog/article.jsp?page=drj_blog/killer_from_treasury_curve_spx_new_norm_unchanged_51723.html

I make $$$ every day said...

karen said...
a new trading method i'm considering.. type in a symbol.. i mean make it up until you hit pay dirt.. then, based on the chart alone, jbtfd.


Karen, eaiser way, go through some ETF's using a daily 3MA/6MA and trade options the proper way the day after the cross-over. Been doing this for years and it works... well most of the time, just take profits soon.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/537044-tom-brady-eva-longoria-nfl-power-rankings-tuesdays-top-sports-news/entry/33268-new-orleans-hornets-nba-takes-over-struggling-franchise

New Orleans Hornets: NBA Takes Over Struggling Franchise

McFearless said...

I agree you can trade options fairly effectively with a basic MA system, keeps you honest in your trades if you stick to it

maybe you don't make big money on trades that way, but who ever said that was the goal....

karen said...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-07/goldman-citigroup-to-sell-commercial-mortgage-debt.html

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are marketing $876 million of bonds backed by commercial mortgages, according to a person familiar with the offering.

The securities, tied mostly to malls, shopping centers and office buildings, are supported by 43 loans on 108 U.S. properties, said the person, who declined to be identified because terms aren’t public. The bonds are slated to be sold next week, the person said.

karen said...

"The largest mortgage in the Goldman Sachs and Citigroup offering is an $88 million loan on a 399,935 square-foot office building occupied by the United Federation of Teachers at 52 Broadway in downtown Manhattan, said the person."

Figures that the United Federation of Teaches is in such a pricey space..

McFearless said...

you know who's bullish RE, Bill Ackman:

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=116211

he's not a dummy....

karen said...

http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/

December 8, 2010 14:14 ET: AUSSIE TRADERS watch tonight's Nov employment report (00:30 GMT), which could well provide the fundamental catalyst for extending the classic bearish formation in the charts below. Aussie Nov employment seen +20K from 29.7K and the unemployment rate seen at 5.2% from 5.4%. A positive may support AUDUSD back towards the 0.9880s but as long as no weekly close occurs above 0.9950s, the formation remains valid. Also watch out for the possible materialization of a Chinese rate hike later this week would be a negative for AUDUSD as has been the case in previous tightening. 09760 and 0.9640 appear the next key levels of support. The 500-pip rebound from Dec 1 to Dec 7 may have well stopped out several shortsbut much talked about right shoulder resistance of 0.9950-60 was never broken as far as a daily close is concerned. http://chart.ly/ e73rwly

karen said...

Ben, he might not be a dummy but he is EARLY.

karen said...

Ben, I think it was yesterday when I posted in slide show on RE..

McFearless said...

karen,

yeah, I mean I don't agree with his view but I think he's worth paying attention to, if I were him I might agree with the outlook, he's got very deep pockets, could likely buy now and so what if housing goes down a little more, he can be patient.

he made a killing on GGP and Bess had his performance up for November, it was...uh, HOT, it seems he's got a real skill in finding the truly distressed deals that show tremendous profit potential.

of course, he lost a lot of money in 2008 too....but he's more than made up for it since.

McFearless said...

maybe that's where I saw it karen, right here

the days start to blend together this time of year

karen said...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures fell Wednesday on fears of an interest-rate hike in China and after increases in weekly gasoline and distillates inventories and a stronger dollar.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-drops-ahead-of-supplies-data-2010-12-08

karen said...

I wonder how many US market participants are as keyed into the Aussie dollar/jobs report as they should be? and then there is the possibility of the china rate hike.. we have numerous charts suggesting something is brewing..

Jennifer said...

I'm considering STR -- its the opposite of BTD.

McFearless said...

some of the comments on that BR thread are funny

it's real simple like, if people don't want to acknowledge the validty of technical analysis....let them be on their way then

I'll stick to using every single tool at my disposal to help give me better odds than a coin toss.

perhaps the best argument on this topic is the old

"technical analysis is subjective"

oh really, compared to what other type of analysis.....

radmon walk was laughed out of the thinking mans conversation over two decades ago, the distribution that would occur if it were random simply does not exist.

karen said...

CV.. look at aapl.. 3 peaks and a domed house??

karen said...

uup at first support.. or its 5 ema

karen said...

ChartLines

Testing $SPX 1229 on what looks like a wedge up means be careful this isn't another bounce gonna fail & drop lower (1217 anyone?)

CV said...

@karen

3P&ADH (TPTSNBN) the pattern that shall not be named...

McFearless said...

indeed, lot of choppy up and down as described last night, what may appear to be a double or triple top could mark the top of 5 of C of (B)

as an aside, daneric opened up to this potential late last night "Is this actually all of Minor 5?", he's getting on a bit of a hot streak as he does from time to time....

karen said...

ten handle rule on $spx?? 1219-1229?

McFearless said...

alright, what does that stand for

tptsnbn?

karen said...

ben!! he tells you right there.. the pattern that shall not be named !!

McFearless said...

oh, haha, ok.

karen said...

Ben, this is interesting: "A common perception, meanwhile, has been that consumers have diligently been reducing their debt. Indeed, according to the raw number in the recent CardHub report, credit card debt decreased by $10.3 billion during the third quarter. But that disguises a key fact -- namely, that credit card companies wrote off $16.8 billion of debt during that period, accepting losses for loans that wouldn't be paid back. Consumers, then, ballooned their debt by $6.5 billion."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/08/credit-card-debt_n_793855.html

Jennifer said...

Karen -- I've been watching that wedge for half an hour. Looks ready to break, plus futures are having 2nd test of 2 std dev away from VWAP w/ divergence, usually good for a pullback now anyway.

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/12/8/chinese-ipo-frenzy.html

karen said...

$copper still has me spooked.. it bettered it's 2008 high.. and closing high..

karen said...

its, i mean.. anyway, what's up with that?

I-Man said...

BTD.

McFearless said...

karen,
I would also note if you look in that paper at the very last chart, it sort of puts to rest any ideas that there has in fact been deleveraging, that's just a myth at this stage so I agree with the comment its just a common percetion, not an actuality....defaults maybe, but very little at all in the way of behaivor changes outside the financial sector

hence my reapting, this party is just getting started

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/u-s-states-face-cliff-as-stimulus-end-opens-38-billion-hole.html

U.S. States Face `Cliff' as Federal Stimulus Ending Opens $38 Billion Hole

"U.S. states are preparing for more budget cuts next year as tax revenue isn’t likely to rebound enough to replace almost $38 billion in aid that will be gone as federal economic stimulus ends, according to a report.

At least 31 states and Puerto Rico are forecasting deficits of $82.1 billion in the next fiscal year even as tax receipts are picking up, the National Conference of State Legislatures said today. Under a temporary mandate since 2009, the U.S. has provided economic aid to states, helping to pay government workers and shoulder the cost of the Medicaid program to provide health care for the poor. That aid will be gone, the group said.

“Although a recovering national economy is helping to stabilize state revenues in fiscal year 2011, serious budget challenges await state lawmakers in the new year,” the group said today in the report. “This largely stems from fewer federal stimulus funds available for next year’s budgets."

...Christie will get even more face time on U-Tube

karen said...

ben, i'm sorry, if i look in what paper? something you posted previously?

CV said...

@karen

"$copper still has me spooked.. it bettered it's 2008 high.. and closing high..."

Haven't I drilled this into your brain yet?

Electric Cars... 3x the amount of copper usage of regular cars...

If the world wants to be S-T-U-P-I-D and build these things... Then fine, knock yourself out...

I'm sure Nicola Tesla himself would have advised against it...

72bat said...

k -
ben had posted about 5 paragraphs before his 3:15 that have since disappeared

karen said...

GLD is a tease hanging onto its 20 ema.. the next drop will be a doozy.

McFearless said...

that's strange, my post just vanished...

this paper:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/09/steve-keen-deleveraging-with-a-twist.html

been reading a lot of this guy lately to try and further educate myself on this stuff

it might help explain the data you see in the huffpo piece, I had more to say before but I'm not re-typing all that now....

karen said...

thanks, bat.. i didn't see it, i guess.

Anonymous said...

anyone like the 'China deleveraging'/lower Au Price-correlation?

AAIP

karen said...

that is excellent!! glad you brot that back to my attention!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben:

Then there is this POV about deleveraging:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/08/credit-card-debt_n_793855.html

"But according to a new study, any progress we've made in that direction is being reversed. Americans accumulated $6.5 billion in credit card debt between July and September, according to the study from CardHub. Between April and September, the study says, consumers increased their debt by 11 percent over the same period last year. Although consumers made significant progress paying down their debt during the first months of 2010, they're now on track to erase that gain by year's end."

Does Keen consider this is credit card companies writing off bad debt? and is it?

karen said...

i hear that AIG has been halted it was down nearly 4% today..

karen said...

10 billion secondary! WTF! from 667 million..

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AVAV

def. takes some of the shine off any Day, when this Co. trades North..

AAIP

karen said...

Mark.. that is scary..

Anonymous said...

Great Scott!

Answer Man: Luke Scott talks Nugent, hunting and Obama origin

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Answer-Man-Luke-Scott-talks-Nugent-hunting-and?urn=mlb-292970

I-Man said...

That was a good one...

:)

karen said...

mrtopstep

chatter = imbals $205M to buy
6 minutes ago via TweetDeck

1229 is gonna be tuff no matter what..

I-Man said...

The dip, not the chart. Sorry.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

the article I linked is in direct response to that huffpo article. Keen goes into a great amount of detail to discuss those trends and what is happening, I'd check out his blog if you are really interested, it's not exactly fun reading, but there is just a ton of good info there.

I've got a lot of thoughts about the math of how we arrive at that bottom line estimate for the month, but I'll have to leave that for some other time right now.

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