AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Who cleaned up after the party?



SPX
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1178.34). Holding above weekly 3LB midpoint. QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Below the 38.2% retrace at 80.63. Still above SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.19).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.54). Still hiding in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish engulfing). Still above SMA(21). Midpoint at EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Closed below 14.6% retrace (1392.69). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1338.80). My precious.



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below SMA(21) & SMA(144) but has been holding SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8247).



JNK
Hanging man day (with long tail). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.30).




10YR YIELD
Spinning top day (should have been a long day). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Staying above SMA(144). Now above its 50.0% retrace (31.86). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 30.00).



CRB
Bullish long day (failed to confirm bearish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the Gann 2x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 295.43).



XLF
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's. Passed the test of the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).



SILVER
Spinning top day (btw so was yesterday so no engulfing). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.01).



COPPER
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above SMA(21). New 0.0% retrace is holding. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 399.90).




THE BOND VIGILANTES BAT SIGNAL...

19 comments:

call me ahab said...

and excellent exchange of ideas also- compliments ZH-

"When I was younger I lost 10 years of my investing life following doom and gloom and Austrian economics."

response-

"how did you invest in doom and gloom and lose 10 years? The doom and gloomers are the precious metals folks who've been in a 10 year bull market."

game, set, match

Colin said...

Everyone catch the breakdown in the commercial REITs today (-1.5%ish)? Not sure what it means, but it sure was a nice treat.

Anonymous said...

these flippin' peep, characterized by: ""When I was younger I lost 10 years of my investing life following doom and gloom and Austrian economics."", think that Life and the Script of http://bickfordmovie.com/ , are one and the same..

AAIP

I-Man said...

@ Anon, Other thread

I-Man would certainly not be long the aud against my fav dog Bucky!

There are better ways to max that trade...

AmenRa said...

Well that's two reversal candles on the SPX: shooting star followed by a hanging man. The weekly SPX is making an evening star pattern (needs confirmation). Also at this rate the 10yr should hit 4% and the 30yr hit 5% in a week or two.

I-Man said...

Ben had a post disappear today also, Ahab. Blogger.

call me ahab said...

I-man-

for a second- I thought it was some kind of wikileak suppression going on

AmenRa said...

Why are futures so giddy? Trying to force down 30yr yields before the auction? Last day of POMO before the next schedule? Assange locked up? Congress adding to the deficit with no cuts in spending? Thursday night football? Blythe knocking silver down?

Andy T said...

This is an interesting "wonky" type interview with Richard Epstein.

This guy is a clear thinker in my view. I couldn't have answered these questions any better--only wish I could be this lucid with the ideas.

The first two minutes are particular fascinating as he sheds some light on the "O."

Andy T said...

AmenRa: The market was pretty resilient today in the face of a collapsing debt market and crashing metals.

Wonder which one is the more important market? US Debt or the Equity Indices.

If you don't know the answer to this question, then you haven't paying attention.

Ha!

I-Man said...

I dont trust the reversal pattern, Ra...

The market passed a test today. Even if it does reverse hard into the bearish scenario in the next week or so (and its running out of time,) it will likely go up and overtake that last high by a few ticks.

Wasnt enough volume on yesterdays reversal imo.

AmenRa said...

Which of the following does not belong (re: hacking)

A) A Swiss Bank
B) Visa
C) Mastercard
D) SarahPAC

call me ahab said...

ok I give up-

must be some kind of double secret shit going on regarding those HW posts-

diappeared twice no less

AmenRa said...

Future contracts are rolling over to March which could explain some of the giddiness.

karen said...

than you, AR.. all you need to know about tonight's giddiness is this:

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Australia’s unemployment rate declined in November, data out Thursday showed, with the news giving the Australian dollar and the share market a lift.

Next up is Chinese interest rates..

karen said...

and, thank you, AT.. I am quite taken with Richard Epstein.. i've never listened to him before.

karen said...

LB stirred from hibernation for a post at Macro Man today..

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/12/bad-day-for-goldfinger-but-worse-for-mr.html

" Agreed in general. Most punters only notice bonds when they blow up and granny calls about her munis and then they all start running around shouting "Don't Panic.. Don't Panic.."

This is not The End of Treasuries As We Know Them, not a sign of Imminent US Bankruptcy... blah blah blah. What this is, chaps, is a rather tasty correction of the QE2 "mini-bubble" in bonds and a hasty retreat by leveraged players (Cough: Hedge funds) who aren't generally fixed income participants and obviously they "don't like it up 'em, Captain Mainwaring" when the market turns.

LB has fancied a nibble on TIPs but isn't yet ready to lose multiple digits in USTs until we see what tomorrow's auction looks like. Other dirty ducks (mini Black Swans) include what China might or might not do this week, and a PPI number on Tuesday morning that might be a shade over-heated- that could send the TIPs spread soaring... (he said, hopefully) and provide a nice entry point into the long end, before the CPI restores order.

"Do be careful, 007..."
"Kevlar gloves, Q" "

AmenRa said...

Ron Paul will be chairman of the Monetary Policy Subcommittee. May have to start setting the DVR for their meetings (just to see BB squirm).

72bat said...

@ examiner.com
"Confirmation of Congresssman Spencer Bachus will help Ron Paul's chairmanship"
"Taxpayers want to see for themselves what their government is doing with their money. And that includes specifically the Federal Reserve..."

re-inforcing the conflation of the two in the little peoples' minds. batmando commented,
"part of the government, since when?
and all along i thought the fed was a private bank"

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