Morning Audibles - 12.10.10

Once again... Futures are looking NORTH... I'm guessing it must just be in anticipation of the arrival of Santa...

JBTFD is all you need to know...

Hurry bulls! Jump in your cars, and get out to the mall as fast as you can, to buy that special fruitcake, new I-Pad that will be obsolete as soon as the battery wears out and/or Steve Jobs tells you it's time to buy a new one, and you're NOT COOL if you don't...

Me?... Well - Since I've no place to go... "Let it snow, Let it Snow, Snow"


& other stocking stuffers to get you thru the weekend


226 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 226   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

Search: Pot 'Christmas tree' seized in Germany

http://specials.msn.com/A-List/Lifestyle/Pot-Christmas-tree-seized.aspx?cp-documentid=26687511

Jennifer said...

CV -- where did you find a picture of my house? My husband takes our outdoor light display very seriously.

call me ahab said...

great post-

FYI- I googled it- King5 is Seattle-

and who could forget a Charlie Brown Christmas?

b22-

caught your link from last night- dude must have been a high hurdler

CV said...

@Jennifer

lol - I'm sure he does!

Anyone who would put 40 dino's on the lawn, has definitely got it going on... (hey - that rhymes)!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PPf3aaZmUw&feature=related

AmenRa said...

Why is bloomberg.com tv broadcast showing cartoons?

CV said...

@Amen Ra (9:29)

Because EVERYBODY, these days, is trying to emulate "Survivor Capital"...

karen said...

good morning! are we having fun yet.. and what happened to those soaring futures? CV, I have you to thank for waking up with the Coke jingle in my head.. back after I watch the jingle cats.. : )

oh, gld:uup needs to get to neckline today.. tho i suppose Monday won't be too late..

karen said...

that Let It Snow video brot back bad memories of my winters in MA!

christmas lights on houses freak me out.. lol

ben22 said...

wow, that xmas light display was pretty amazing, rumor has it Paul Tudor Jones, who normally goes all out with the xmas lights, is going to do something even bigger this year.

there is a place with wild lights right by my office, I'll take some video and post it on here next week.

I watched that journey video from yesterday before I went to bed, that was a great video, the hair, the jeans, the voice, classic.....

ben22 said...

I don't mind the lights on houses...of course some people never take them down, which is sort of tacky...

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/neel-kashkari-exercises-rhetorical-hypocrisy-asks-if-government-can-handle-fall-out-his-acti

Neel Kashkari, previously of Goldman Sachs, subsequently of TARP creation fame, and currently of PIMCO payroll generosity and Macroeconomic Advisors "expert network" insight, has penned a charmingly faux-heartfelt, and supremely hypocritical Washington Post op-ed in which he asks rhetorically whether "Washington can tackle the big economic issues?"

karen said...

I'm someone that feels guilty using my blowdryer once in a while.. so you can imagine what christmas lights do to me.. I will put up a tree this year and it will have little white lights, though.

Also, lights really are prettier when there is snow on the ground to reflect them...

karen said...

aig is making me ill.. i just don't get it.. aig is the new yoku.. lol..

oh, oh, i need to check GovMo.. my other favorite..

karen said...

StockSage1: Haven't heard much about POMO lately, I guess it is old hat now

TheStalwart: Everyone's a bull now, so it doesn't help anyone's case

karen said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704250704576005612056451994.html

Markets Defy Fed's Bond Buying Push

ben22 said...

all I can say is

DANG

did someone just say POMO?

karen said...

Ben, back to HH.. i've got a copy of that and am going to read it thoroughly this weekend.. isn't he short the yen? didn't Nenner say he is out of his yen long and it's downhill from here?

karen said...

Umm.. what does Andy say about the market not rallying on good news?

karen said...

look at this image!

http://www.forexlive.com/152984/all/fed-pulls-back-the-curtain

CV said...

new chart in thread

Nothing much to see... Gann angles & some AH prints...

We're coming up to DAY 21 from that "weirdo" FLASH CRASH print (that I ran some of the GANN ANGLES off)...

Remember - 12/27/10 is .618 of 201 days...

201 days was the number of days from the July '09 lows - to the April '10 highs...

Just saying...

CV said...

@karen

I'll be forever traumatized from seeing that image you linked up (10:07)

You'll be hearing from my lawyer! :-)

CV said...

The FLAMING THUMBTACKS covered yesterday against the Colts...

I'm HAPPY I lost the unit... Why?... Because it CONFIRMS one of my general philosophies on handicapping games... That is...

If it "looks" too easy... It probably is...

I'm sure a lot of people put multiple units on the Colts & got burned...

wunsacon said...

There's a bull market here:

http://hotjobs.yahoo.com/career-articles-10_well_paid_federal_government_jobs-1458/fpusrsrc=today

karen said...

ohohoh.. gld broke 134!

get ready.. will it bounce in the 133-132 range or drop like a rock..

and nobody say i havent been pointing out gld:up H&S!

karen said...

Convertbond: SEC and CFTC will hold a joint roundtable discussion on credit default swaps this afternoon, do u think they know what one is?

karen said...

CV, that chart made me dizzy.. i think i need to lie down.

CV said...

@karen (10:17)

The "chatter" I've been hearing is that Blythe Masters likes to operate on Friday mornings...

I guess it's to shake out the weak longs going into weekends so things don't get out of control...

karen said...

bac and c candles of note..

Leftback said...

There is still chatter that China will make a move over the weekend. That's why LB has The Widowmaker trade on.

There is a tradition of weekend bombing missions on PMs, leading to a CLAVADISTA d'ORO on Monday mornings, some people might be running scared ahead of such an event, which at this stage, one has to say might be quite fun.

Wes said...

clavadista d'oro on monday?

buying opportunity for the chinese...

Leftback said...

No POMO today, but the next POMO schedule is announced at 2pm.

China might well be selling, and then buying next week on the cheap.
It beats working....

The Widowmaker is ITM.... time to tighten up a bit!

karen said...

i'm rooting* for the lulu shorts..

*rooting (australian informal), an act of sexual intercourse...

karen said...

BloombergNow: A&P May File for Bankruptcy as Soon as Weekend After 151 Years in Business http://ow.ly/3n9Pj

karen said...

Kid Dynamite's World: JPM and the Massive Silver Short - The Greatest Story Ever Told http://bit.ly/ihMq1N JPM is not short 3B oz of silver

Leftback said...

LB has had a decent week:

1. DF short squeeze.
2. The Compressor (HYG: Short TLT)
3. The Widowmaker (Short Ag)

Jury still out on #3, but when you're hot, you're hot...

karen said...

just discovered this H&S.. fxc.. if that plays out.. you know what it means for crude and precious metals..

karen said...

I REALLY like this guy (obviously.)

It’s Gonna Go Soon…
By Jamie Coleman || December 10, 2010 at 15:59 GMT

The market is clearly learning a lesson that being short below 1.3200 has been a losing strategy in EUR/USD this week. Therefore one of two things should happen in the next day or two: A run up to the top of recent ranges in the 1.3400/40 area or a swift move to the downside once every man and his dog gets lulled into complacency by the recent success of the “buy-the-dips” strategy.

This is forex, and it is the end of the year.

Odds are we will not fall into quiet ranges.

Odds are we move further and faster than most can imagine…. I’ m not sure which way it is gonna go, but I’m pretty sure its gonna move soon…

karen said...

zerohedge: Assange To Be Indicted Under US Espionage Act
http://is.gd/ivgbo

Ron Paul: Shouldn't WikiLeaks Make Us Ask Whether We Are Getting Our $80 Billion Worth In Intelligenc... http://read.bi/i4FNI7

karen said...

don't look at lulu.. you will not believe it anyway..

Leftback said...

Nobody really thinks the market can go down here, not even me.
So the odds are it probably will.

karen said...

HedgeyeRetail: Timmy Geithner is loving $LULU 29% comp. He's finally well above water after his 2007 investment lost 90% of its' value.

Leftback said...

LULU shorts have been "rooted out"...

Anyone starting to like USTs?
LB can see a case for some buying...
Double dip in housing is still out there for our delight.

SG had a piece on ZH where they see USTs strong in Q1 '11.
LB suspects that commodities will crack soon as Bucky firms.
Not sure if we will ever get out to a 4% 10y in this oscillation.
With 2s10s steep and 10s30s close to record wides, TLT may be a buy.
Not rushing into this, but watching very very closely.

karen said...

$bkx.. what a candle.. likewise xlf.. can they quit now?

Leftback said...

Gold down, miners up.
ZHers can't get enough of the Yellow Metal Complex.

It will all end in tears.

karen said...

tidbits from Convertbond: (they should be read from the bottom up)

There is $1 trillion of below investment grade debt maturing over the next five years (High Yield Junk Bonds and Leveraged Loans)

U.S. High Yield market is $1.2 trillion in size while the current U.S. corporate leveraged loan market is $1.6 trillion in size

This afternoon we get buyback details for next month, Over Under is $105 bln, $75 bn from QE2 and $30 bn from balance sheet maintenance.

Hearing Treasury puke this week could be the end of a process to get flat vs. QE trades and take balance sheets down for year-end.

Fed data, dealer pull back, now long less than $10 bn of the 6-11 yr sector, the QE focus, vs over $21 bn at the start of Oct

karen said...

gdx is down..

karen said...

want to see a bearish engulfing candle extraordinare? look at OIH

Jennifer said...

Can only hope that TG has to deal with the kidney stones w/o meds. On that note...off for some holiday prep. You'll just have to BTD without me today!

karen said...

Jennifer! you are a devil! LOL.. I will disappear for a bit, too.. maybe someone else will pipe up if i pipe down !

CV said...

@karen

say what you will about that chart that I put in the thread...

But thus far... Today's action is hugging that gann line...

It will probably be uneventful... Until someone decides to pull the trigger... I'm guessing we see 122.70-ish when it detaches...

CV said...

It's a day like that for me today as well...

Stuff to do... I'll be in an out making comments... Not expecting much in the way of fireworks here...

Anonymous said...

GDX down, XLB still up a bit.

CV said...

It just started snowing here now...

So I guess I'll go out and crash my car :-)

I-Man said...

I'm short right now, but not looking for catastrophe...

I still want the dip that rests about 50 dow pts below where we are right now...

I-Man said...

As my Brah from another Ma, Jamie Coleman, hints above...

You gotta know WHEN to buy the dips.

Think like a Squid, and you'll do fine at the BTD psychology...

Leftback said...

The LB has on short shorts, likes SPX 1200-1205 area for JBTFD.

Jah Bull Markets are replete with 3% reversals.

Leftback said...

NYC isn't the ideal locale for short shorts in December....

Leftback said...

JOHNNY is very long here according to the RYDEX InwestTool signal. With the CRB Double Top, how many more Omens does one need to see?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rydex-nasdaq-100-bullbear-ratio-highest-dot-com-collapse

Even TWSWB himself tends to observe this one and become more cautious. It's enough to make LB drop another big block of SPY !!!

I-Man said...

Effin retracements...

I-Man said...

Maybe the market has all the dip buyers recruited that it needs to go higher...

I was thinking we'd need a little more fear to tilt the pendulum again...

Leftback said...

We just need to run out of buyers in SIZE.
Lots of little guys on board here in equities and PMs.

call me ahab said...

Wes!

glad to see you're still kicking

"It just started snowing here now...
So I guess I'll go out and crash my car :-)"


funny-

I remember an ice storm here about 15 to 20 years ago- a woman parked her Mercedes in the middle of the highway at an intersection- and refused to move-

cars crashing all over the place

I-Man said...

With the amount of dip buying going on this morning, lunchtime would be a great time to launch a little havoc...

Complacent dip buyers, eating sandwiches, stops set in an illiquid lunchtime market...

Leftback said...

PTJ is too busy decking out the house in Belle Haven for the light show to pay much attention to this market. Quite a few shops have probably reduced their position sizes already and are looking at some nice P/L for the year. If you were a FI kinda dude and you were long Ts all year and then sold before QE2 announcement then you were money.

I-Man, I think it is going to take some extremely revealing icons to liven up the dull proceedings this afternoon.

Not you, dude... you know.

call me ahab said...

. . .and hopefully CV- we will not have a winter like last's-

what a show!!

karen said...

yoku and dang..both red! seeing is believing.. JBTFD.

Anonymous said...

Red is your favorite color...

karen said...

In the Q3 Fed flow of funds statement out yesterday where $1.93T of cash is cited on corporate America’s balance sheet, the liability side has corporate debt at an all time record high of $7.3T. Cash as a % of this debt is thus at 26.4%. It is at a high level but not much different than where it was in ’05 and ’06 when it was 27.3% and 25.5% respectively and not far from 25.2% at year end 2009.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/yes-alot-of-cash-but-look-at-the-debt-too/

karen said...

BergenCapital

*CHIANG SAYS CALIFORNIA FACED $20.7B CASH DEFICIT ON NOV. 30

*CALIFORNIA CONTROLLER RELEASES NOVEMBER 2010 CASH UPDATE

*CA MAY SEE 'MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR CASH PROBLEM' IN SUMMER 2011

Leftback said...

You have to be liking bonds a lot more here with a 3.28% 10y and a 4.41% on offer at the long end. AGG is 3.46%, LQD 4.90% and JNK 9.44%.

Compare that with 1.78% yield on SPY and 0.61% on NAZZ.
Just sayin...' might be time for some fixed income plays.

karen said...

DougKass: All in short the Russell index and iwm at 77

Leftback said...

Bear in mind that the muni mess is embedded in AGG.
MUB at 3.77%. Stay away! LQD must be a safer bet at higher yield.

karen said...

Jamie Tyrrell talks about "1st day $VIX futures opening up hour and 10min early" Sonar report http://youtu.be/TJDrilmx9ws

Leftback said...

LB really thinks another SPY dump is in order here. Hope we don't scare the market with another monster block...

karen said...

Minyanville: Three speculative ETFs for $100 oil

http://bit.ly/g4aEfW

CV said...

87 octane regular up to $3.13 in these parts...

catfood! (& reindeer food to pull the sleigh)...

karen said...

$TYX chart extremely bullish..

karen said...

just checked the $bse.. UH-OH !!!

Jim Morrison said...

CV

I want you to know I never really "whipped it out", "unlimbered the timber" or "siphoned the python" back in '69.

http://www.npr.org/2010/12/10/131960761/what-really-happened-at-the-doors-1969-concert?ps=cprs

karen said...

and note what the $nikk did.. i think you'd call that a bearish engulfing.

Leftback said...

$nikk is worried about China. Clearly.

karen said...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/pain-in-spain.html

Just an update ... the yield on Spain's 10-year bond is rising again.

AmenRa said...

Somebody explain to me why the hell is the market inching higher? BTD? Don't fight the Fed? Santa? Get all you can before it's over?

Johnny Retail said...

We are just buying the effing dip. Whee!
This is easy, right Brian?

Brian?

He was just here.
Tawny as well.

karen said...

AR, it's the TOTAL CONVICTION mentality.. mtg the house and JBTFD!!

Seriously, tho, you gotta wonder how much margin is in these prices..

LB, do you use margin to buy your giant blocks of SPY?

karen said...

ben would love this headline:

U.S. stocks strengthen as GE hikes dividend
1:26 PM ET | Marketwatch

Anonymous said...

NO margin for LB.
LB is naturally giant, even without leverage.

I-Man said...

If you were a pile of a couple billion euro's, and were afraid of austerity, hostile tax regimes, and the general uncertainty of sovereign debt crises...

Where would you go?

Who looks accomodative?

Anonymous said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GAJ&ql=1

hard out there for a Yield Ho..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GAP&reco=1
0.95 1.88 (66.43%)

A&P shares plunge on bankruptcy speculation

AAIP

Leftback said...

DF is going ballistic. LB is a rock star....

Euro sellers will seek traditional havens.
JPY and USD. Maybe a bit of CNY.

Anonymous said...

John E has a bro' in the PROC, John Yee ~

(a nod to BR's recent post on 'outsourced' trading of N.A. 'Markets, from the PROC)

AAIP

karen said...

LB, rolling my eyes.. there are a lotta stocks out there going ballistic but DF isn't one of them. even on a % basis (not too mention point basis) it wouldn't even make the top ten in $compq, $nyse, or $amex

a point is a point on a few k shares, tho.. congrats on that!

karen said...

DUST is up.. what a clever name for a miner short.. i really love it.

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZO

closing in on U$D ~4/bu. on Oats..
~~

cv,

you have any Horses?

AAIP

btw, who likes double-digit Hard Wheat in the near future?

karen said...

hey, with the financials breaking out... the sky is the limit for spy.. just sayn'

Anonymous said...

Ashes to Ashes....

Anonymous said...

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 858 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 848 million bushels forecast in November but down 118 million bushels, or 12%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 832 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from 827 million bushels in November, based on a like increase in imports, but down 876 million bushels, or 51%, from 1,708 million bushels in 2010.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 165 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 11%, from 185 million bushels in November, based on a like increase in exports, but up 14 million bushels, or 9%, from 151 million bushels in 2010.

USDA projected 2010-11 carryover numbers were above trade expectations of 849 million bushels for wheat and 803 million bushels for corn but slightly below estimates of 167 million bushels for soybeans.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.208 billion bushels in 2010, unchanged from the November forecast but down 10 million bushels from 2.218 billion bushels a year earlier. U.S. 2010-11 wheat imports were projected at 110 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 9 million bushels from last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.294 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 301 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.993 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.25 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 369 million bushels, or 42%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.
...
http://www.world-grain.com/News/News%20Home/World%20Grain%20News/2010/12/US%202011%20wheat%20corn%20carryover%20up%20soybeans%20down.aspx?NewsLetter=true

AAIP

Anonymous said...

Commodity trading is completely out of control. Specs have driven up prices of everything. Take a look at Mish today...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Harvest delayed by SA rain

Wet weather means the grain harvest will be delayed by several weeks in South Australia.

Farmers Federation official Michael Schaefer says growers are also facing the prospect of having grain downgraded for sale.

But he thinks South Australia will be able to salvage a lot of good grain compared with eastern states, which have also had flooding.

"I think the Victorians and New South Wales have got far bigger issues than what we've got in South Australia," he said.

"There's going to be a number of growers in those states who probably may not get their crop reaped at all because well it's under water."

Mr Schaefer said farmers needed to ensure they got a fair price for their grain.

"The quality is the real concern and to make sure that when it goes into the storage system that it is classified correctly and that downgrading doesn't occur where it shouldn't occur. I think that's probably the number one problem," he said.
...
http://www.world-grain.com/news/news%20home/LexisNexisArticle.aspx?articleid=1319937819&NewsLetter=true

ibid.

ben22 said...

team,

over the years I've gotten pretty good at identifying when retail will go back into the market, I am extremely confident this is going on in a big way right now as I mentioned about a month and half ago that I started to see the early indications this was going on, but I see it much more now, I'd expect all the data should show it as we go into 2011. Often it's on the "economy" but I will just simply state I've never seen so much hand wringing over fixed income before and the media blitz to identify bonds being a "bubble" or a bad investment has never been stronger.

Color me an emerging big bull again on SOME bonds, still not sure if the lows are in in this space but I'm getting more bullish and on the other side I'm getting even more bearish equities.

glta

karen said...

I'm having deja vu.. it was the euphoria gripping a friday before the dot.com bust. i believe that was the friday going in the september labor day..

funny, when i was younger, even just a few years ago.. i could never keep memorial day and labor day straight.. now it's a no brainer.

karen said...

FL is the new Dust Bowl: Tree Disease Takes Florida Citrus Acreage to 24-Year Low http://ow.ly/3nfra

karen said...

tradefast: all dips get bought - sentiment is bullish - have completely lost the sense that a flash crash is possible - gaining faith in policymakers

Leftback said...

ben,

I am a re-emerging bond bull but so far only in HYG (stable) and TIP (falling knife, ouch!). Haven't ventured into LQD or TLT as yet, and avoiding AGG or BND (which have munis) until we clearly have a ceiling in Treasury yields. LQD is suddenly looking a lot more attractive as an alternative to dodgy European debt or over-priced equities.

Leftback said...

POMO! POMO! POMO!
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

ben22 said...

re: Margin,

I haven't looked in a while but what's the %rate on a margin loan right now, can you justify it to buy common stocks, let alone, the market?

karen said...

another incredible low volume day...

Brian Sack said...

This is the update that we just released, out to Jan 11.

Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...

Interactive brokers will lend to you at 5:1 leverage, JOHN.
Scared yet?

karen said...

ben: Margin Lending Rates vary based on the current Federal Reserve Broker Call Rate. Rates also vary depending on the size and the volume of the account. Based on BB's fixation with the markets.. I they are paying you to be on margin LOL.. i'll keep looking, tho.

CV said...

@AAIP

Oh boy... You said "hard" (1:51)...

You "know" what that's going to do to LB now, don't you?

---

...this... "horses"... not right now... I had 2 in Italy... I don't have enough land to pen a pony right now... I'd have to impose on my neighbor (who I board an "Elsie" with that grazes with his "Elises" in his meadow)...

Haven't needed to go deep into the horses yet... Might be coming tho... never know...

Anonymous said...

SPX diverging from EURUSD and from $gold..... hmm....

Anonymous said...

It's not quite the same for LB when Mark says it...

karen said...

Debit Balance Margin Rate
$1,000,000 or more 3.89% (0.25% below base rate)
$500,000 to $999,999 4.14% (Equal to base rate)
$250,000 to $499,999.99 5.14% (1.00% above base rate)
$100,000 to $249,999.99 6.14% (2.00% above base rate)
$50,000 to $99,999.99 7.14% (3.00% above base rate)
$25,000 to $49,999.99 7.64% (3.50% above base rate)
Less than $24,999.99 8.14% (4.00% above base rate)

Anonymous said...

McB,

IB is charging ~1.8% on 'Call Money' ..

AAIP

cv said...

true... (thank goodness)

I-Man said...

Short again, probably dumb, but I never said I was smart.

I-Man's Boss said...

You should be looking for pullbacks you fucking idiot.

Anonymous said...

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=interest&p=e&ib_entity=llc

a tad higher, now..on Indivual Accts.

AAIP

karen said...

spy 125 was overhead resistance in late summer of 2008.. after that it went to 64 : (

history will not repeat.

CV said...

CV just finished making (and slicing), and excellent batch of GRAVLAX...

Hey - I-Man...

When are you going to catch me a salmon, put it on ice, and send it to me???

I'll clean & cut it for you, and send you back some nice GRAVLAX... (with a little "interest", of course)... Gotta keep my small cut on the deal...

karen said...

as a matter of fact.. there is no way that BB will let the spy not conquer 125 and stay there.

Anonymous said...

We are still in deflation, despite the Wizard.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/is-credit-contraction-over.html

I-Man's Boss said...

Just Buy The F*cking Dip, I-Man

karen said...

surely spx can better 1240 on this volume..

ben22 said...

Leftback,

yep, sort of in the same space here with those ideas, I'm slowly doing some bottom as I'm not entirely sure this is over for bonds. I have bought a little bit more BND but not much, looking at other things first.

This was fairly easy to see coming yes....98% long bond bulls? come on....lol

karen said...

it's not even the last hour yet.. hmm.. 1250+ in the cards

ben22 said...

"We are still in deflation, despite the Wizard"

oddly enough, some of the wizards policies could have the effect of accelerating the deflation

I won't explain for now....lets just give it time

any deflationist knows to have patience, all in due time....

I-Man said...

Karen, should I be scared that I cant tell if you are serious or bullshitting?

karen said...

well, i am serious.. and if we do get above 125 spy.. it'll be nuts. of course, i expect gold will dbl and crude will run past $100. cars will triple in value based on their weight in copper, too : )

I-Man said...

Cant carve a low out in the bonds without a little taste of equity carnage...

ben22 said...

oh....just like clockwork:

PIMCO Portfolio Manager Webcast – Exclusive Invitation

See, advisors freak out about bonds as well, they must have just gotten a ton of calls, and so we now get a conference, but some of the big boys are on this one so I'll listen in.

karen said...

somehow i overlooked this release: U.S. Nov. budget deficit $150.4 billion

(2:00 PM ET 12/10/10 WASHINGTON MarketWatch) -- The U.S. government ran a $150.39 billion budget deficit in November, the Treasury Department reported Friday. A year ago in November the deficit was $120.29 billion. Income was $148.96 billion in November, the Treasury said, about $15 billion higher than receipts in November 2009. Spending was $299.35 billion. This is $45 billion higher compared with outlays a year earlier. The November deficit was $8 billion above a congressional estimate.

ben22 said...

wtf, my posts are awful

meant to say I'm slowly doing some buying, not some bottom

karen said...

zh adds a little zest to it:

November Budget Deficit $150.4 Billion, Worse Than $138 Billion Consensus, Biggest November Deficit On Record

http://is.gd/ivKBq

karen said...

it's gonna be a bummer if uup drops below 23.10

Leftback said...

An amuse-bouche of equity carnage, just a soupçon...

But perhaps a mini blow-off top first, divorced from carry trades?
On very very low volume and unsupported by FX or commods?

Something is up, keep an eye open for a late run into Ts.

Anonymous said...

ben

We thought you were definitely doing some bottom.
Some of us are experts in that area.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/build-america-bonds-program-s-end-poised-to-batter-municipal-debt-market.html

call me ahab said...

The top executive at General Motors said Friday that the automaker's attempt to rebound from its bankruptcy is being hindered by salary limits the government has clamped on executives at companies that accepted federal bailouts.

say what? Banks must not have been notified

karen said...

ahab.. maybe he needs a talking to by that new jersey governor..

leftback said...

30y mortgage at 4.87% now, not good for the Recovery.
Spreads are amazingly low again for MBS however.

karen said...

i can't watch this: BloombergTV

On #BloombergTV, BofA CEO Brian Moynihan Says Excess Capital `Belongs to Shareholders' http://ow.ly/3nlPL

I just want BAC to account for their losses..

karen said...

i can't watch this either.. ritholtz

No, James Altucher is Not a Douchebag . . . http://dlvr.it/B7NJn

karen said...

the mouth of the $vix megaphone just got a little wider today.. 17.06 low..

karen said...

from TraderMark: November 2010 Federal Deficit $150.4 Billion - Highest November on Record

....on an unrelated note, corporations are flush with cash and paid the lowest % of taxes to GDP in history in last year we have records (2008), Americans are being sent cash by the bushel, entitlement spending is through the roof, aid to states is historic, and the stock market propels higher. These items are completely unrelated as long as there is no cost in cost-benefit analysis. :) Just like I suddenly have $50,000 if I borrow $50,000 on my credit card. (no cost of course...only the benefit)

Kind of laughable in retrospect when I hand wringed about half a trillion deficits "back in the day" [Jul 28, 2008: US Budget Deficit to Half a Trillion] - that's 3-4 months of federal government work nowadays.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/12/november-2010-federal-deficit-1504.html

ben22 said...

yes, james altucher is a douchebag

he's a whinny little bitch in fact that got completely blindsided in 2008.

last time I watched his sorry ass he was crying that nouriel never invited him to any parties, now he's crying he needs an apology.

Here's the thing when you are making money you don't need to give a shit about what other people are saying about you.

Vanity much?

he clearly doesn't get that it's not that he's bullish why people don't like him, it's because he's a DOUCHEBAG!!!!

Anonymous said...

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/12/us-treasuries-long-end-of-curve.html

nice charts..

b22, if these hold, USTs should be +, going fwd:


AAIP

James Altucher said...

You're right.

I am a douchebag, I mean it's obvious.

ben22 said...

also, you have to enjoy how he responds to getting called out about being bullish in 2008 by saying that

well, if you bought in October 2008

look, that argument only matters is if you FIRST bought in 2008

that's the point....dip shit.....you bought all the way down, so quite spotting that you are up a 1,000% on the purchase

so full of shit

also, if you "stayed bearish" you probably bought gold and bonds....so he's no different than ritholtz nonsense which indicates that that somehow doesn't count....

Everyone's Ex-Girlfriend said...

I kno, right?

Anonymous said...

Altucher gives "Douchebags" a bad name..

AAIP

karen said...

just noted that the $compq has not had a down day for dec yet.. every close has been higher 2 weeks running..

ben22 said...

Mark,

if I just kept it real simple like, the real returns on bonds in the deflationary environment we are in

getting attractive again?

Yes

can you make money and more importantly right now keep money by buying and selling them strategically when the yields are right....

here let me try it

Yes We Can!

CV said...

Altucher...

Probably never made it to 7th board on his high school chess team, and now wants to prove to everyone he can play...

James Altucher said...

My douchbag is only 1/2 full, or 1/2 empty depending on what month of the year, and leave my friend BR out of this.

karen said...

Look the yearly IEF chart.. are we there yet?? I think not.

I-Man said...

I get the feeling that anyone who bought in the last 3 hours is about to get trizzaped.

I-Man said...

Sorry, that should be "trizzapped."

call me ahab said...

Altucher gives "Douchebags" a bad name..


no kidding- what did a douchebag ever do to be compared to Altucher

karen said...

I just scared myself.. I overlaid the SPX on that IEF chart for the last ten years.. I think BB opened Pandora's Box on a market much bigger than stocks with his attempt to artificially cap yields.

Leftback said...

Look the yearly IEF chart.. are we there yet?? I think not.

The Lady knows how to read a chart....

LB is scared of next Tuesday's PPI. That could send bond investors running to the hills. Sell the PPI, buy the CPI is the usual pattern. That's why we are in TIP, not TLT. But we are getting there soon.

ben22 said...

I really just can't stand that guys hair and little slinky body that looks like it'd break in half with a strong gust of wind

he looks like a real life version of a young Mr. Burns from The Simpsons

also, the "everything I've said about the economy has been right"

lol, first person in the history of the world to properly forecast "everything" about the economy

there is a growing breed of infallible pundits on wall street

all right, all the time

Anonymous said...

Perhaps James has a small endowment....?

Everyone's Ex-Girlfriend said...

i kno, right?

E-Trade baby said...

Quit dicking around and Buy The Dip.... take control....

AmenRa said...

EURUSD has been down, yields have been up and AUDJPY has been down yet SPX keeps moving higher. Anyone ever try to light a M80 with a short fuse?

karen said...

geeze.. in 2007 when the market wouldn't quit.. $vix was in the 9s..

Anonymous said...

(AP:DETROIT) The death of a 67-year-old Detroit Burger King customer who police say fell and later died after being punched by a 20-year-old employee has been ruled a homicide.

Wayne County medical examiner's office spokesman Dennis Niemiec says an autopsy conducted Friday determined that Paul Cannon died from blunt force trauma to the head.

Niemiec says the man's dentures were "not an issue" in the death. An earlier report said the punch may have caused the older man to choke on his dentures.

Police say Cannon was reportedly causing a disturbance Thursday afternoon at the restaurant on the city's east side and tried to hit the worker, who swung back.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897518734711

what's up with 'self-defense' being ruled a 'Homicide'?

also, BK, a nice place to get 'caught dead'..

should be the new jingle for G3 Capital's U$D 4.3Bn purchase..

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Burger+King+G3+Capital

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Really now. Is it me or am I not the only one seeing cartoons at http://noir.bloomberg.com and clicking the Live TV link?

ben22 said...

I think it's time for AT to take a crack at a bond chart....what do you say AT?

BND chart look right now, just dont' know, ABC or a 1-2 and in 3 set up though internals don't confirm a third wave and you'd likely have a cleaner look saying it's some sort of A-B-C from the 8/31 top

Anonymous said...

Wonder if there will be a late climactic surge, Karen?
:-)

Actually looks like there might be a bit of selling into the close.

ben22 said...

E-Trade Baby

What Would Lindsey Do?

ben22 said...

per the wave count, all that matters now from the count I'm using is time, I stick with the chop idea through end of month, perhaps we get another marginal high or so....something tells me we are going to get right to the edge of neely's box time limit and then.....

I-Man said...

Would she "snort" or "blow"?

karen said...

AR, i don't know anything about cartoons at bloomberg..

Ben, ha ha! that e*trade baby : )

Mark.. sounds outrageous to me.

karen said...

bnd looks ripe for a free fall.. this is wild.. Monday could be something else..

CV said...

"The death of a 67-year-old Detroit Burger King customer who police say fell and later died after being punched by a 20-year-old employee"

---

Hold the pickles, hold the lettuce...?

I'm guessing that the SPECIAL ORDER "did", in fact, upset us...

Have it your way bitchez! :-)

karen said...

you can't have the market zipping one way and yields zipping the other in an unhealthy economy..

karen said...

he might have been drunk and disorderly.. might have fallen of his own accord whether punched or not.. and what in the heck! was the kid black and the man white? Detroit, probably!

karen said...

spy to 125 on declining volume.. typical!

call me ahab said...

Lindsay Lohan-

http://www.thepaparazzis.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/picture-5__opt.jpg

sure has grown up a bit since the Disney days

karen said...

lulu is headed for pluto..

karen said...

okay, now i am gagging, HousingWire - Homebuilders: Perhaps one of the best buys of the decade http://goo.gl/fb/veld

Anonymous said...

Falling on your head is a bad idea.

People who get "run over" by cars actually get knocked up in the air, and then they die when they land on their heads.

Mr Market doesn't need to worry though. He is going up every single day, and staying up for hours, almost as though he were spending his life on a continuous date with.....

Leftback said...

LULU is even hotter than DF...

Leftback said...

3.31% TNX !

karen said...

lulu and aig have very similar one year weekly charts; imagine that!

ben22 said...

nearly all the up days are on punk volume, been that way since last year, the only big volume days are red bars

I think that Bespoke state about performance of the S&P less first days of the month reveals all we need to know about the market, there is certainly no investment going on

trading....yeah, lots of that

call me ahab said...

"November federal budget deficit highest on record"

The federal budget deficit rose to $150.4 billion last month, the largest November gap on record. And the government's deficits are set to climb higher if Congress passes a tax-cut plan that's estimated to cost $855 billion over two years.

in the words of Cheney- "who cares- budgets are for chumps"? (paraphrasing)

karen said...

i think a lot of people are covering their IWM shorts now.

karen said...

$TNX high was 33.3, close was 32.96

karen said...

just posting don't get on my case about this: mrtopstep
chatter close imbal leaning sell sid

Leftback said...

Blow off top..... has to be a pure squeeze.

Dumped more SPY and bought a smidgen of TIP.

karen said...

forget it!! i won't post these anymore, LOL: mrtopstep

now hearing $128mil to buy small imbalance

Leftback said...

Only 2% SPY now, 13% TIP, 22% HYG and 15% divyys.

Will be 12% short at the close.

Anonymous said...

HWD ... guess diamonds are not in demand anymore?

karen said...

but NILE is doing well..

and GAP sure didn't hurt the XRT..

Anonymous said...

GAJ ... there goes the tea party!

ben22 said...

re: BND

that ETF won't have muni's....not an option in the prospectus, Vanguard is very strict with style purity in their funds as everything is an indexing strategy. they have specific muni funds they offer instead

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