AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: The Ireland budget vote and bank runs are so much fun.



SPX
Spinning top day (looks just like 11/5/10-11/8/10). Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1225.85). Holding above weekly 3LB midpoint. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 38.2% retrace at 80.63. Still below SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.19).



VIX
Homing pigeon day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.54). Hiding in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Well above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace may be ready to give way. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1338.80). My precious.



EURJPY
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace at 1.1121. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1120).



JNK
Bearish harami day (but we're not in a uptrend so could just indicate weakness). Still below SMA(55) but above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.30).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day (late hanging man confirmation?). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Staying above SMA(144). Back below its 38.2% retrace (29.91). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.14).



CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the Gann 2x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 295.43).




XLF
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's. Still looking to test the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).



IQI
Hammer day (we shall see considering munis are still weak). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held its 38.2% retrace (12.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.87).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 25.31). Hope you're not short (wink wink).






Ben Bernanke as Colonel Jessup...

50 comments:

ben22 said...

how funny that Neely mentions today that if he were an orthodox wave counter he would consider a short right here yet orthodox counters are all looking for much further upside thinking we have only neared or topped in i of 5 of C.....

good stuff

AmenRa said...

Ben

So he's more orthodox than the orthodox if using EWT's methods?

ben22 said...

I did some covered calls against a few of the longs I picked up today that had made gains since purchase, if sideways is the direction for the remainder of the month, which I think is high probability especially in the wave count and given todays volume this is a good strategy through Dec expy.

fortunately there are some peeps that have bid up call prices that are just out of the money all the way up to monkey land so if you look enough you can create some decent income streams for this month, wonder if that has anything to do with QE....maybe, probably.

I like this idea right now despite the fact that I give up upside potential, I question how much of that there is anyway before year end.

also, damn it's getting cold outside

ben22 said...

I sold calls, to clarify....

Ra,

I think in Neely's round about way he was saying.

Hey, all these people doing orthodox counts are going to screw up again because they are ignoring TIME

I also wanted to piont out that lots of orthodox counters are not only ignoring time but they are looking for much higher levels in price as well

they are all looking at the same form, so this is where the difference in NEO Wave is key.

I-Man said...

"Currency cannot mask the uncompetitive nature of taxation."

-MA

AmenRa said...

Hmmm the 23.6% extension off the high of the monthly 3LB is 1223.50 (it held for one day). Failure to hold should bring about a retest of 1209.46 (the 14.6% extension). Then again a video of a line at a EU bank will do the same thing.

AmenRa said...

Ben

So Neely says each wave has a time component. What some might label (I) he wouldn't because the time requirements for (I) haven't been met. Is that about right?

BinT said...

It is damn cold outside.

BinT said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-06/new-york-city-budget-gap-may-widen-by-2-billion-next-year-official-says.html

New York City’s projected budget deficit for fiscal 2012 may widen by $2 billion, to $4.5 billion, because cuts in state aid may be greater than forecast, Budget Director Mark Page said.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s proposal last month to cut the city workforce by 10,000 as part of plan to save $1.6 billion during the next 18 months may not be enough to close the gap, Page told the City Council’s Finance Committee today.

“The reality that we’re facing is that the future could be considerably worse,” Page told the council members. “This is something we are solemnly worried about.”

...There is a word you very seldom see in regard to budget decisions....solemnly....very interesting choice of words.

Anonymous said...

yes, getting Cold, here, too..

finally, had to pull in the Broccoli & Cauliflower -- they were hanging in there, and growing, but last night/this morning got 'em pretty good..
~~

Bruce,

what a lot of folk don't realize is that those that have 'need for a Truck', also, a lot of the time, use the Truck in 'Grocery-getter'-mode (out of necessity--only having one Vehicle)
~~

AmenRa,

nice wrappage..DXY looking better, after today's action?

the Silver chart is 'Centerfold'-material for Bulls -- of any stripe..

AAIP

BinT said...

and trucks are a chick magnet

I-Man said...

And 4x4 trucks with studs will go anywhere the I would care to roam...

BinT said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-06/illinois-pension-funding-may-weaken-even-with-bond-sale-moody-s-says.html

"Illinois, which has the worst-funded pension system among U.S. states, may see it deteriorate more even if it sells bonds to close the gap, Moody’s Investors Service said.

Moody’s issued its report today after the state last week sold $1.5 billion of bonds backed by payments it receives from a 1998 settlement with tobacco companies. The proceeds will go to pay $1.18 billion of bills for fiscal 2010, which ended June 30, Moody’s said.

Lawmakers recessed until January without approving Governor Pat Quinn’s plan to sell $3.7 billion of bonds to fund this year’s contribution to state pension plans. About $1.7 billion of a $5.3 billion backlog of bills for fiscal 2011 is owed to pensions, Moody’s said. Contributions are below the amount needed to cover unfunded liabilities, Moody’s said."

...Now I know what you are thinking...BinT is still in bearish mode, and thinks the debt bubble is still leaking like sieve. And that 2011 still looks glum to him...


..And you might be right

AmenRa said...

I call BS.

How the hell can you extend tax cuts AND extend UI? Where is the money going to come from? The Treasury can't sell additional bonds. EU and ROW have their own problems. Is the Fed going to monetize that also?

ben22 said...

Ra,
6:10, yes exactly correct.

The whole advantage of NEO Wave is that he introduced very strict time rules for how long waves will last, how long 3 is in relation to 1, how long 5 is in relation to waves 1 and 3, etc. It's been pretty awesome learning this aspect of wave. He's created an extra sell discipline that EWP doesn't have.

The most glaring example recently played out this summer, he marked the end of a pattern at the August lows and then looked for the wave higher, when that leg up started in September there were timing issues of what it had to do, if you followed EWI over the same period of time they kept calling the run up that started in September part of corrective wave 2 and we'd be heading down at again at any moment and they did not change their labels until it was a foregone conclusion that we'd be going back above April highs, so for a trader you would have missed the entire move up since September which as been huge and even worse you probably tried to short the whole thing. Sure orthodox counters can play wave 5, but if Neely is right wave 5 is going to be weak and the shortest wave with regard to time. Andy showed in that update how wave 5 could go quite a bit higher but the idea of these waves is you try to catch the larger part of the moves once you identify the pattern so now someone just starting to trade off of it is in a high risk low reward trade in which case I'd rather stay in cash and swing at the next pitch.

He's introduced other concepts about form as well that you don't see in even the newest EWP, like the diametric which Andy has shown several times, I've seen them too many times to deny that pattern existing at this point, but it's the time aspect that is the real advantage imo.

ben22 said...

"And 4x4 trucks with studs will go anywhere the I would care to roam..."

crank it up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPg8gJq_Kw

AmenRa said...

Was the Obama speech the "Sirens song"? Will China instruct its banks to reduce buying of US debt? How long before we see a 100 bps move higher in the 10yr & 30yr?

Andy T said...

AmenRa:

The element of "time" in waves and the idea that there MUST be one extended wave in a five wave impulse have been critical learnings that I owe to Neely.

The ideas don't necessarily give you "the answer" but they keep you from following the "wrong path," which is, at the end of the day, probably the best one can hope for.

AmenRa said...

Almost forgot. There's the 3yr, 10yr and 30yr auctions this week. This could get interesting.

ben22 said...

I wonder how many of you read the article about the issues with the $100 bills?

2 or 3?.....I hope it was more. These little gems were in there:

Combined, the quarantined bills add up to $110 billion -- more than 10 percent of the entire U.S. cash supply, which now stands at around $930 billion.
The flawed bills, which cost around $120 million to print, will have to be burned.

Wow, huge cash supply there, $930 billion, lets say they lie, lets say it's 5x that....there still isn't any cash.....

burned up........indeed, it's got to go somewhere.

I-Man said...

Hell yeah Ben...

I saw them at Hampton on that tour... 1992.

AmenRa said...

Does that include cash held overseas? I remember reading somewhere that there is more cash (US) overseas than stateside.

ben22 said...

Ra, 90% of $100 bills reside outside of the country as I'm to understand it, however, I think that $930 billion includes all of it, either way, you could slap a 10x on that, it's tiny compared to credit, really really tiny. good thing we made all that money on TARP right?

this is part of the reason I get a kick out of all the liquidity talk, it's more perception than reality, though no doubt that perception is so strong and is certainly having huge impact right now

when things dry up again it will be amazingly unexpected but the numbers are just the numbers

John Galt said...

Interesting video on a "rich person."

ben22 said...

the other thing about that article, I have to imagine that the money printer machine fixer uppers are on red alert working around the clock right now. You know if The Ben Bernank is going to eventually drop money from helicopters they need to make sure they can really print the stuff. Shocking how that press isn't working considering how efficient other government run businesses tend to be.

red alert!!!!

Anonymous said...

A Billion New $100 Bills Quarantined in Huge Vaults in Fort Worth, Texas and Washington, DC
December 6th, 2010

Your what hurts?

Who needs to be a conspiracy theorist with mainstream news like this?

“Officials don’t know exactly what caused the problem…”

“Officials don’t know how many of the 1.1 billion bills include the flaw…”

“The defective bills – which could number into the tens of millions, potentially representing billions of dollars in face value – will have to be burned, they say.”

I mean, oh sure, they just printed unknown billions of dollars (face value) in cash that’s going to have to be burned?! Shit happens. Woops. Clumsy us.

Now, what do I really think is happening here?

I have three guesses.

The first guess goes something like this:

Maybe it was Hank Paulson and some of the other vampire squid sitting around and they thought, “These stupid idiots bought the bailout caper, how about we skip all of that nonsense and just print ourselves a few vault fulls of hundreds?! Who’s with me?”

Or, maybe They’re not finished with the existing “Supernotes” yet.

The following is from, Mysterious $100 ‘Supernote’ Counterfeit Bills Appear Across World:

Klaus Bender, the author of Moneymakers: The Secret World of Banknote Printing, said the phony $100 bill is “not a fake anymore. It’s an illegal parallel print of a genuine note.” He claims that the supernotes are of such high quality and are updated so frequently that they could be produced only by a U.S. government agency such as the CIA.

A third guess:

Maybe the “Supernote” Directorate of the CIA isn’t up to speed with printing the new toilet paper and they need an initial supply of the new stuff before they can implement the, “Illegal parallel print” of the new design.

What do you guys think?"
http://cryptogon.com/?p=19132

AAIP

ben22 said...

no doubt that story about the money is total crap, you do not just spend 120 million and print that much to then say..... oh oops, something is wrong here. too bad there has been no reporting on it though, all the stories revolve around small quotes from people "familiar with the situation"

it would be really easy to get all conspiracied out on it

BinT said...

PullingfortheJetstonight.

cv said...

@karen (from other thread)

http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/12/miniscule-volume-today.html

In a full day of trading with no obvious vacation disruption, SPY traded ~99 million shares today (the count as of 3:24 pm central). To put this in context, SPY volume has not traded below 100M shares in the last 2 years except for half days or days where the first stringers were likely to be on vacation, and the second stringers were running the show:

Nov 26, 2010 (half day after Thanksgiving = vacation/second stringers).

Dec 24-31, 2009 (half day on Dec 24, followed by short week to close the year = vacation/second stringers).

Dec 22, 2009 (second stringers).

Dec 24-26, 2008 (half day plus vacation = second stringers).

The 200-day moving average of volume in SPY is over 205M shares per day.


---

Wait... let me add to that...

"second stringers"... (and Ritholtz - who would rather "make money" than be right)...

Cause "that's how he rolls"...

... and if that's the definition of a "second stringer"... I wonder what category that puts the TWSWB's "suck-ups" in?

That was my PRE "C'MON MAN" morsel...

cv said...

@ben22 (on this)

"I like this idea right now despite the fact that I give up upside potential, I question how much of that there is anyway before year end."

---

FWIW... Here's a concept that's enetering my mind at the moment...

The S&P is up 10 and change percent since Jan 1st, and up 20% from the summer lows...

Naturally, momo's have already started positioning for performance bonuses... But you also have to think that if any of them have a brain in their head (which is debatable)... They want to leave some "wiggle room" for 2011...

IOW... I might question the logic of ending the year on a high...

Anything above 1115 is a "+" year, and even 1150 would basically be where the year started, by going to in January (before the first dip)...

Strategically, a dip to the 1150's would still print a positive... The "alpha dogs" could get out here, and the Ken Fishers of the world could be happy with a mid single digit...

Then, they'd have room to ramp in January (suck more people in), and print the high in January before reversing hard...

You know...

- "so goes the first few days in January - so goes January"
- "so goes January - so goes the year"
- "the effing Super Bowl indicator"

all that crap to keep people interested...

I don't know how that firs in to all your TIME wave counts, but it's worth considering strategically...

cv said...

"A Billion New $100 Bills Quarantined in Huge Vaults in Fort Worth, Texas and Washington, DC
December 6th, 2010"

---

Hmmm... Really?

CV is wondering if AIR FORCE ONE made a "surprise" visit to Fort Worth, and stuffed a few stacks into his pockets for himself and his cronies before they were "all burned up"...

ben22 said...

CV

just buy the effing dip

cv said...

ROR -

The Latest News On The United States Of Welfare And Hand Outs

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-news-united-states-welfare-and-hand-outs

"The latest from Reuters, on the late news that Obama will both extend Unemployment Insurance for 13 months, and extend the Bush tax cuts for 2 years:

•Obama: has reached a framework for compromise with Republicans to extend all Bush tax cuts for two years

•Obama: compromise also calls for extending jobless benefits for 13 months, and calls for 2% payroll tax cuts next year, and for extension of estate tax

•Obama: says compromise is an essential step on the road to economic recovery

•Obama: he is confident that Congress will ultimately ‘do the right thing’

We just hope that the prostituting administration will finally float the one proposal we have all been waiting for: free blow jobs for everyone in perpetuity, funded by the Federal Reserve's monetization of the Sinking Hooker fund."

karen said...

Ben, this headline is for you: Caution from Bernanke sends stock indexes lower

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Caution-from-Bernanke-sends-apf-1668405800.html?x=0

karen said...

The U.S. government will sell off its remaining 7.0 percent stake in Citigroup (C.N) -- 2.4 billion common shares -- in an underwritten public offering, the Treasury Department said on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B55KP20101206

Matthew said...

I need it to stay cold like this for about two weeks to bring ice fishing season forward. Perch and Crappie will be on the menu until March.

AmenRa said...

State-Run China Securities Journal Says China May Hike Rates Over The Weekend

To all those who are considering buying the futures on the long-ago priced in news of the tax cut extension, we would like to caution that according to the state-run China Securities Journal (which is the same as prophet Jon Hilsenrath telling the great unwashed what the Printing God is about to do with near 99.9% accuracy), China may raise interest rates this weekend. Some additional color from Dow Jones: "Given the central bank set a precedent by raising interest rates right before the release of the consumer price index (previously), there's a 'sensitive policy window' before and after this weekend."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/state-run-china-securities-journal-says-china-may-hike-rates-over-weekend

Andy T said...

cv@8.28:

Yeah, that's some awesome compromise their....let's just give more money to everyone....you get what you want and I get what I want...

It's all good....

Funny stuff, that.

karen said...

I am currently wondering if this outcome wasn't already priced in:

WASHINGTON — President Obama announced a tentative deal with Congressional Republicans on Monday to extend the Bush-era tax cuts at all income levels for two years as part of a package that would also keep benefits flowing to the long-term unemployed, cut payroll taxes for all workers for a year and take other steps to bolster the economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/07/us/politics/07cong.html

karen said...

From Maudlin's latest (quoting Dylan Grice): "US policymakers’ three steps during the housing crash fit the template well. Asked in 2005 about the danger posed to the economy by the housing bubble, Bernanke responded: “I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.” Here was the denial that there was a problem. But as sub-prime issues arose, Ben Bernanke reassured the world that they would be “contained.” And when Bear Stearns collapsed, Hank Paulson promised “The worst is likely to be behind us.” Here was denial that there was a big problem."

My co-walker today was espousing Bernanke's proclamations from 60 min today.. no dble dip blah blah blah.. i replied.. this is also the man that didn't see the housing bubble, the leverage bubble, and said subprime is contained..

karen said...

“If anyone is printing money it is China’s central bank, not the U.S.,” said Stephen Green, head of research for Greater China at Standard Chartered Plc. in Shanghai. Actual price increases faced by Chinese consumers and businesses are probably even higher than official reports, and pushing up rates now “is the wisest course of action,” he said.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTlfOc51XeFo

karen said...

BreakingNews, U.S. Treasury prices 2.4 billion shares in Citigroup at $4.35 each; set for $12 billion gross profit - Reuters

New blog post: RBA leaves rates unchanged at 4.75% http://www.forexlive.com/151893/all/rba-leaves-rates-unchanged-at-4-75

AmenRa said...

Karen

Did they walk a little faster after you said that?

Andy T said...

Guess Rex Ryan and the Jets are going to have to keep their mouths shut for awhile, eh?

Geez. What an ass-whipping.

AmenRa said...

Well let's see. Paris banks open around 2AM ET. I wonder if they'll try to find a way to keep a run out of the MSM.

Also futures are higher BUT are barely above fair value (so there's still a chance of bears having a bull shish kebob).

wunsacon said...

For f***'s sake -- what a score! The Patriots beat the Jets like Bernanke beat the dollar.

wunsacon said...

>> Sinking Hooker fund."

I'm glad you didn't say "sTinking hooker fund". I'm already full vested in that one.

wunsacon said...

By increasing the deficit, there will be enough Treasuries for Bernanke to purchase. Otherwise, he might've run out sometime.

wunsacon said...

Wow... Carlin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bO0-u900OG4

CV said...

new thread

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